Toward an Integrated Air-Sea Toward an Integrated Air-Sea Real-Time Airborne Observing Real-Time Airborne Observing

System for System for Landfalling HurricanesLandfalling Hurricanes

Peter G. Black, Eric Uhlhorn and John GamachePeter G. Black, Eric Uhlhorn and John GamacheNOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research DivisionNOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division

Al Goldstein, NOAA/AOC, Ivan Popstefanija, ProSensing. Inc. Al Goldstein, NOAA/AOC, Ivan Popstefanija, ProSensing. Inc. Jim Carswell, Remote Sensing Solutions, Inc., Paul Chang, NOAA/NESDISJim Carswell, Remote Sensing Solutions, Inc., Paul Chang, NOAA/NESDIS

Edward Walsh, NASA Goddard at NOAA/ESRLEdward Walsh, NASA Goddard at NOAA/ESRLNick Shay, Univ. of Miami, RSMAS/MPONick Shay, Univ. of Miami, RSMAS/MPO

61st Interdepartmental Hurricane ConferenceNew Orleans, LAMarch 5-9, 2007

The Evolving SystemThe Evolving SystemThe Bridge Across the Valley of DeathThe Bridge Across the Valley of Death

AFRC WC-130JAFRC WC-130Jo SFMR: 3-5 units, 2007; all 10 units, 2008SFMR: 3-5 units, 2007; all 10 units, 2008

AOC GIVAOC GIVo TA Doppler, SFMR 2008-09TA Doppler, SFMR 2008-09

AOC WP-3D N43RFAOC WP-3D N43RFo SFMR, TA Doppler SFMR, TA Doppler NOWNOW;; SRA 2007, HIRad 2009SRA 2007, HIRad 2009

AOC WP-3D N42RFAOC WP-3D N42RFo SFMR, TA Doppler, IWRAPSFMR, TA Doppler, IWRAP NOWNOW;; AWRAP 2008AWRAP 2008

2002 IHC- Defining the Valley; 2007 IHC- Building the Bridge2002 IHC- Defining the Valley; 2007 IHC- Building the Bridge

SFMR measures C-band microwave SFMR measures C-band microwave emission from foam (air bubbles in the emission from foam (air bubbles in the ocean)ocean)

First flightFirst flight: Allen, 1980: Allen, 198022 years to assemble bridge components22 years to assemble bridge components20032003: First OFCM/ AOC bridge- : First OFCM/ AOC bridge- operational SFMR on WP-3Doperational SFMR on WP-3D2004-082004-08: The ‘Golden Gate’ : The ‘Golden Gate’ Congressional bridgeCongressional bridge

The Evolving System- CapabilityThe Evolving System- Capability SFMR- Surface wind speed and rain rate along trackSFMR- Surface wind speed and rain rate along track TA Doppler- 3D wind vector, reflectivity ± 70 km from TA Doppler- 3D wind vector, reflectivity ± 70 km from

track; 1-10 km altitudetrack; 1-10 km altitude IWRAP- Surface wind vector and rain rate swath ± 3-5 km IWRAP- Surface wind vector and rain rate swath ± 3-5 km

from track to 50 m/s; boundary layer 3D wind vector from track to 50 m/s; boundary layer 3D wind vector vertical profile along track- 30 m to flight levelvertical profile along track- 30 m to flight level

AWRAP- Operational version of IWRAP with dual polAWRAP- Operational version of IWRAP with dual pol SRA- Surface directional wave spectrum along track: SRA- Surface directional wave spectrum along track:

direction, height and wavelength of 3 wave components in direction, height and wavelength of 3 wave components in real time.real time.

HIRad (next-generation SFMR)- Surface wind speed and HIRad (next-generation SFMR)- Surface wind speed and rain rate ± 5-8 km from track for WP-3D; ± 40 km from hi rain rate ± 5-8 km from track for WP-3D; ± 40 km from hi level AUV); wind direction in 3-4 yearslevel AUV); wind direction in 3-4 years

The Evolving System- ProgressThe Evolving System- Progress SFMR- SFMR-

o Major wind model upgrade, remove high wind low bias and Major wind model upgrade, remove high wind low bias and moderate wind high bias- Uhlhorn, 2005moderate wind high bias- Uhlhorn, 2005

o Major rain model upgrade- Carswell, 61st IHC-2007Major rain model upgrade- Carswell, 61st IHC-2007o Major cal upgrade, warm load- ProSensing, 2005Major cal upgrade, warm load- ProSensing, 2005o Add hires land mask, weekly SST field via web uplink- GoldsteinAdd hires land mask, weekly SST field via web uplink- Goldsteino WC-130J fleet SFMR install begins- April, 2007; 3-5 systems by WC-130J fleet SFMR install begins- April, 2007; 3-5 systems by

Sept; all 10 by Feb, 2008Sept; all 10 by Feb, 2008o SFMR purchase for GIVSFMR purchase for GIVo JHT support for calibration, validation and performance JHT support for calibration, validation and performance

improvements in fetch-limited, shallow water conditions: 2005-improvements in fetch-limited, shallow water conditions: 2005-20072007

o Canted off-nadir SFMR installation on N43RF for HIRad Canted off-nadir SFMR installation on N43RF for HIRad algorithm development (?)algorithm development (?)

The Evolving System- Progress 2The Evolving System- Progress 2

SRASRA– Real time algorithm development, 2004-05Real time algorithm development, 2004-05– SBIR Phase II award (ProSensing) for operational system, SBIR Phase II award (ProSensing) for operational system,

20062006– Operational SRA install and flight tests, 2007Operational SRA install and flight tests, 2007

AWRAPAWRAP– SBIR Phase II award (Remote Sensing Systems) for SBIR Phase II award (Remote Sensing Systems) for

operational IWRAP, 2006operational IWRAP, 2006– AWRAP install and flight tests, 2008AWRAP install and flight tests, 2008

G-IV operational TA Doppler and SFMRG-IV operational TA Doppler and SFMR– Install and flight tests, 2008Install and flight tests, 2008

Reducing Wind Field Reducing Wind Field UncertaintyUncertainty

SFMR flight track strategies SFMR flight track strategies – Alpha pattern normal to storm trackAlpha pattern normal to storm track– Rotated Alpha or ‘Butterfly’ patternRotated Alpha or ‘Butterfly’ pattern

SFMR cal improvements; shallow water, SFMR cal improvements; shallow water, coastal algo refinements, rain rate algo coastal algo refinements, rain rate algo refinements (JHT supported)refinements (JHT supported)

HIRad- broaden SFMR line to a swath HIRad- broaden SFMR line to a swath enhancing probability of detecting true enhancing probability of detecting true surface wind maxsurface wind max

AWRAPFour channel receiver recordsDoppler & reflectivity profilesfor all four beams simultaneously

Conical Scan(60 rpm,15 m pulse)

AWRAPFrequency: C-band & Ku-bandPolarization*: VV, HH, HV & VHBeam Incidence Angles: 30, 35, 41.5, 50Altitude Range: 500 – 8000 mRange Resolution: 15, 30, 60 & 120 m

Swath Coverage~25 – 55 deg. incidence

SFMRSFMR6 frequencies6 frequenciesHalf Beam: 0 to 10, 12 degHalf Beam: 0 to 10, 12 deg

SRA swath HIRADSwath: 30-60 deg

TA Doppler23 deg fore/aft scan70 m pulse

Hurricane Katrina- Hurricane Katrina- SFMR SFMR 28 Aug - Peaked profile28 Aug - Peaked profileVVmaxmax=142 kt=142 kt

29 Aug - Flat profile29 Aug - Flat profileVVmaxmax=100 kt=100 kt

29 August

28 August

* SFMR surface wind

— 700 mb flight-level wind

° 700 mb Gradient Wind- - Radial wind• - Vmax NHC estimateDiamond - Vmax Press/WindSquare - GPS 10-m estimateTriangle - GPS 10-m measurement

NOAAGOES IRSatellite

NOAAWSR-88DRadar

Air Force WC-130JFlight Level

NOAA WP-3DNOAA WP-3DSFMRSFMR

NOAA WP-3DDOPPLER

Air Force29 Aug 0930 UTC

NOAASFMR29 Aug 0930 UTC

Dramatic 12-h change in Katrina Wind Profile: CAT5-CAT3Dramatic 12-h change in Katrina Wind Profile: CAT5-CAT3

Doppler Wind Profile - 29 Aug 1000-1040 UTCDoppler Wind Profile - 29 Aug 1000-1040 UTC

W NE

Doppler Wind Profile - 28 Aug 1725-1820 UTCDoppler Wind Profile - 28 Aug 1725-1820 UTC

1 km

SW NE

Flight Level

1 km

Flight Level

12 km

12 km

• Doppler analyses from 1st W-E leg during Katrina landfall showing asymmetry in horizontal and vertical wind distribution

96

Inflow and shallow wind max to West

Outflow and deep wind max to East

1 km

Flight Level

Doppler Winds at 1 km altitude. Peak winds right of track on inbound leg and left of track on outbound leg

12 km

96

Hurricane RitaHurricane Rita Sept 21

Sept 22

Sept 23

Hurricane Michael 1930 GMT, 18 Oct, 2000Hurricane Michael 1930 GMT, 18 Oct, 2000AFRC 850 mb flight level reduction (left)AFRC 850 mb flight level reduction (left)SFMR surface measurement (right)SFMR surface measurement (right)

GPS Dropsonde - Volume Sampled

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IWRAP inner & outer swath limits

Dropsonde trajectory

Preliminary Wind Profile ValidationPreliminary Wind Profile ValidationComparison C-Band VV 31.5 degrees incidence to 6 consecutive dropsondes

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WIND SPEED WIND DIRECTION

Isabel: Sept. 12, 2003, 18:42:20 to 18:43:42 Z

Altitude

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Surface Wave TopographySurface Wave TopographyTypesTypes

The center of the figure shows wind The center of the figure shows wind speed contours (m/s) from the HRD speed contours (m/s) from the HRD HWIND surface wind analysis- based HWIND surface wind analysis- based mainly on SFMR surface wind speed mainly on SFMR surface wind speed measurements in Hurricane Ivan at measurements in Hurricane Ivan at 2230 UTC on 14 September 2004 for 2230 UTC on 14 September 2004 for a 2a 2 ｡｡ box in latitude and longitude box in latitude and longitude centered on the eye. Arrow at the centered on the eye. Arrow at the center indicates Ivan’s direction of center indicates Ivan’s direction of motion (330motion (330 ｼｼ ). The storm-relative ). The storm-relative locations of twelve 2D surface wave locations of twelve 2D surface wave spectra measured by the SRA are spectra measured by the SRA are indicated by the black dots. The indicated by the black dots. The spectra have nine solid contours spectra have nine solid contours linearly spaced between the 10% and linearly spaced between the 10% and 90% levels relative to the peak spectral 90% levels relative to the peak spectral density. The dashed contour is at the density. The dashed contour is at the 5% level. The outer solid circle 5% level. The outer solid circle indicates a 200 m wavelength and the indicates a 200 m wavelength and the inner circle indicates a 300 m inner circle indicates a 300 m wavelength. The dashed circles indicate wavelength. The dashed circles indicate wavelengths of 150, 250, and 350 m wavelengths of 150, 250, and 350 m (outer to inner). The thick line at the (outer to inner). The thick line at the center of each spectrum points in the center of each spectrum points in the downwind direction, with its length downwind direction, with its length proportional to the surface speed. proportional to the surface speed. The upper number at the center of The upper number at the center of each spectrum is the significant wave each spectrum is the significant wave height and the lower number is the height and the lower number is the distance from the center of the eye. distance from the center of the eye. The average radial distance for the The average radial distance for the twelve spectral locations is 80 km.twelve spectral locations is 80 km.

Hurricane Ivan

HIRad ConceptHIRad Concept

HiRad Swath

NOAA’s Gulfstream-IV SP

SFMR Swath

HIRad wind speed simulation of Hurricane Floyd

Concept• HIRad offers wide swath and high resolution imaging from Gulfstream IV or a UAV.• Potential for spaceborne application. Technology• The multi-frequency, microstrip, stacked patch, thinned array is the technology challenge for HIRad.

Expendable Probe DeploymentExpendable Probe Deployment

WP-3DWP-3D– GPS DropsondeGPS Dropsonde– AXBTAXBT– AXCTDAXCTD– AXCPAXCP

WC-130JWC-130J– GPS DropsondeGPS Dropsonde– FloatsFloats

• ADOS: Tz chain to 100 mADOS: Tz chain to 100 m• Minimet: surface winds, currentsMinimet: surface winds, currents

– Drifting BuoysDrifting Buoys• SOLOSOLO• LagrangianLagrangian• EM-APEXEM-APEX

In-Situ Measurements

Atmospheric ProfilingAtmospheric Profiling

GPS DropsondesGPS Dropsondes

Ocean Thermal Structure in FloydOcean Thermal Structure in Floyd

Rita 26C Depth from AXCP, AXCTD, AXBT Data

ADOS/SVP Minimet drifter

AFRC/53rd WC-130J Hercules

Hurricane Frances (2004) float and drifter array. Orange line shows Hurricane Frances (2004) float and drifter array. Orange line shows storm track labeled by date/time (triangles = 6-hr positions). Blue storm track labeled by date/time (triangles = 6-hr positions). Blue circles=drifters; magenta squares=lagrangian; green circles=EM-APEX; circles=drifters; magenta squares=lagrangian; green circles=EM-APEX; red stars=ARGO/SOLO. Deployment position is indicated by black red stars=ARGO/SOLO. Deployment position is indicated by black symbol.symbol.

CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION

We are at a historic turning point in history for We are at a historic turning point in history for improving hurricane intensity observation and improving hurricane intensity observation and forecasting where the capability to observe the forecasting where the capability to observe the coupled hurricane-wave-ocean domain matches coupled hurricane-wave-ocean domain matches the improved coupled model capabilities to the improved coupled model capabilities to assimilate and model atmospheric, ocean and assimilate and model atmospheric, ocean and interface variables. interface variables.

This alignment should provide the next best This alignment should provide the next best opportunity for improving hurricane intensity and opportunity for improving hurricane intensity and structure forecasting.structure forecasting.