Toward a sustainable energy future for Fiji

Ravita Prasad and Atul Raturi

The University of the South Pacific

Fiji National University

Overview of Presentation

• Fijian demography

• Current energy usage

• Challenges

• Mitigation or Low carbon Transformation options

• Results from modelling using LEAP

• Way forward

Fiji Demography

• 2017 Census population was 884,887.

• GDP in 2016 at constant basic price

was FJD 6.7 billion with average annual

growth rate of 3%.

Year

GDP at

constant basic

price (FJD

million)

Annual %

change

2011 5738.8

2012 5819.8 1.4

2013 6095.4 4.7

2014 6436.9 5.6

2015 6684.4 3.8

2016 6709.8 0.4

Average 3.2

Energy Situation• Major users of imported fuels are power utility and the transport sector.

• For electricity generation, there are 4 main types:• Grid based (Energy Fiji Limited (EFL) formerly known as Fiji Electricity Authority

(FEA))

• Off-grid electrification managed by Fiji Department of Energy

• Own power producers such as Vatukoula gold mine, outer island resorts, etc.

• Independent power producers; Fiji Sugar Cooperation and Tropik Wood Industries limited.

• For transport sector, there are:• Land transport

• Maritime transport

• Domestic air transport

Electricity Generation Sector (Grid Connected)• Hydro and diesel are the two major sources for generation.

Data source: (FEA, 2016)

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% R

E g

ener

atio

n

Gri

d E

lect

rici

ty g

ener

ated

(MW

h)

Year

solar MWh wind MWh

biomass (IPP) MWh Fossil fuel MWh

Hydro MWh % RE

For thermal generation:

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tota

l co

st (

FJD

mil

lion)

FE

A f

uel

dem

and (

000 t

onnes

)

Year

HFO IDO Total cost

Data Source: (FEA, 2016)

Grid electricity demand• Domestic and non-domestic customers.

• 25% of total demand is domestic (residential) customers while the rest are from non-domestic (industrial and commercial customers).

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100

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900

Ele

ctri

city

consu

mpti

on (

GW

h)

Year

domestic

Non-domestic

Annual Growth rate:

• Domestic demand = 4.6%

• commercial demand = 4.2%

• Total Demand = 4.3%

Data Source: (FBoS, 2018d)

Fossil fuel consumption in Transport

• Currently, there is no fuel consumption data publicly available from Land transport authority, Maritime Safety Authority and domestic aviation.

• Fiji Bureau of statistics is only recording the mineral fuel import in Fiji and re-export to other PICTs.

• This data was used to determine the “retained import” in Fiji and this amount of fuel was assumed to be consumed within Fiji.

For Transport fuel;2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Tota

l co

st o

f fo

ssil

fuel

in F

iji

(mil

lion

FJD

)

Volu

me

of

import

ed f

uel

in F

iji

(mil

lion

Lit

res)

Gasoline Kerosene Aviation turbine fuel

ADO IDO HFO

LPG total cost

Data Source: FBoS

UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Goal 7 – Affordable and Clean Energy

Goal Indicator

7.1 By 2030, universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services

• Percentage of population with access to electricity

• Percentage of population with access to clean fuels or technology

7.2 By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix

• Renewable Energy share in total final energy consumption

7.3 By 2030, double the rate of improvement in energy efficiency

• Energy intensity measured in termsof primary energy and GDP

Access to electricity

Census 2007 Census 2017

89%

11%

Electrified Non electrified

Data Source: Fiji Bureau of Statistics

96%

4%

Electrified Non electrified

Cooking Fuels

2007 2017

Electricity LPG Kerosene solar power

biogas wood stove open fire other

Data Source: Fiji Bureau of Statistics

Fuel 2007 2017

Electric 3 15

LPG 28 38

Kerosene 26 24

Open fire 36 19

% households

Challenges and Threats to Energy

Natural Disasters

• Fiji is susceptible to natural disasters such as flooding, land slides and tropical cyclones.

• Over the past decade (report from 2013), Fiji has experienced 17 cyclones.

• Recently, there has been TC Winston (category 5) in 2016 which did extensive damage to power infrastructure which led to nation wide power outage in addition to other infrastructure damage and loss of lives.

• TC Josie this year, brought with it a lot of rain which led to flooding and loss of lives.

TC Winston Damage to EFL grid

Source: National Disaster Management office (NDMO, 2016).

High ratio of fossil fuel import to total export • Mineral product retained import as a percentage of total export ranges from

20-60%.

• The decreasing trend from 2006 is from the increasing value of total exports.

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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Min

eral

pro

du

ct r

etai

ned

im

po

rt (

%)

Data Source: Fiji Bureau of Statistics

Dispersed islands within an island country

• Dispersion of islands in Fiji makes it difficult to provide grid electricity on every island.

• Hence, only three major islands have grid electricity while the rest have electricity access through REU of FDoE and resorts on islands have their own diesel generators.

• Fuel wood is the energy source for cooking in majority of the remote islands as well as in interior of the main islands.

• This leads to the challenge of providing modern fuel for cooking in rural areas.

• Transportation costs of fuels (diesel, kerosene and LPG) from mainland to smaller outer islands are significant.

• In addition, there is also the issue of timely availability of boats or ships to transport fuel to remote islands.

Transport sector fully dependent on imported fossil fuel• Land transport, maritime transport and aviation are currently no

using any alternative fuel apart from fossil fuel.

• One of the alternative GoF have introduced is reduced or no duty on hybrid vehicles so there has been rise in these vehicles on Fiji roads in the past two years.

• But there is no use of biofuels even though, B5 and E10 standards have been approved by cabinet.

To reduce our dependence on fossil fuels:In this work, two main sectors are considered:

Grid electricity generation and

Transport sector

• In electricity generation, new generation technologies such as solar, wind, biomass and hydro are considered to meet the growing grid electricity demand in the 3 main islands in Fiji; Viti Levu, Vanau Levuand Ovalau

• For transport sector , electric and hybrid cars and electric buses are considered and proper hull cleaning and propeller polishing are considered for maritime vessels. No measures are considered for immediate fuel reduction for air transport.

LEAP Tool usedTo carry out the modelling work:

• Long Range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) tool was used.

• Base year is taken to be 2015/2016 and end year is taken to be 2040.

• For grid electricity, Energy Fiji Limited’s annual report was used for demand while for existing generation technologies information and data was sought from personal communication with EFL.

• For Transport data; Land Transport Authority (LTA) and Maritime Safety Authority of Fiji (MSAF) provided registered vehicles and vessels.

• For transport activity data; questionnaire based surveys were conducted for land and maritime transport.

• Air transport activity data from FBoS was used.

Grid Electricity demand

• Demand is projected to increase at 3.5% per annum.

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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Gri

d E

lect

rici

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eman

d (

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h)

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Strategies to meet the demandNew generation technologies were mostly added after 2025 because the current generation capacity is able to meet future demand at planning reserve margin set at 40%.

New Investment Cost

(USD million)

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Tota

l in

vest

mn

et c

ost

(U

SD m

illio

n)

New

cap

acit

y ad

ded

in S

ola

r p

rio

rity

sc

enar

io (

MW

)New Wind_OvalauNew GCPV_OvalauNew Ovalau Biomass_GasificationNew Wailevu Hydro_VNLNew GCPV_VNLNew Nadago Biomass_VLNew Qaliwana upper Wailoa Hydro_VLNew GCPV_VLNew Nausori Biomass_ThermalNew Namosi HydroNew FSC_Rarawai Biomass_ThermalNew Wailoa Hydro downstreamNew FSC_LTK Biomass_ThermalNew Vuda Biomass_ThermalInvestment cost

Viti Levu 690

Vanua Levu 42

Ovalau 50

Total 781

Electricity generation for MIT• % RE

generation is increasing from 48% in 2015 to 77% in 2040.

• This is using conservative new generation capacities but no storage.

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tric

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erat

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(G

Wh

)

New wind New solar New hydro

New biomass Existing fossil Existing biomass

Existing wind Existing hydro %RE generation

Energy Demand for transport sector – BAU and MIT Scenarios

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LPG_RT Gasoline_RT ADO_RT

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Total Energy Requirement (Grid electricity +Transport): BAU Scenario

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IDO HFO ADO Gasoline LPG

MDO Premix Jet fuel % Renewable

Mitigation Scenario – Total Energy Requirement

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ectr

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rod

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an

d t

ran

spo

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MIT

(0

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Hydro Solar wind biomass geothermal IDO HFO

ADO Gasoline LPG MDO Premix Jet fuel % Renewable

Total Emissions : BAU and Mitigation

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Strategies for way forward

The PPP Knowledge Lab of the World Bank Group defines PPP as

“ long-term contract between a private party and a government entity, for providing a public asset or service, in which the private party bears significant risk and management responsibility, and remuneration is linked to performance”.

Increase Public-Private Partnership (PPP)

Change customer behaviour

• In energy sector to increase renewable energy share in electricity generation and to decrease fossil fuel use in transport sector, the first thing is Changing People’s Behaviour on how they use energy services or energy.

• Energy efficiency and conservation is relatively cheap but the investment in change in technologies for businesses or customers need to make financial gain.

• This process will take lot of time and it needs great deal of awareness creation.

Fiji is moving in the right direction by preparing

New Building Standards,

preparing a Minimum Energy Performance, Standards and Labelling (MEPSL) program,

introduction of hybrid vehicles,

plan for electric vehicles and other related programmes which in the long-term will promote energy efficiency and conservation.’

Set Up Risk Mitigation Facilities• RE and EE projects are perceived as high risk with regards to technology

and cash flows by finance institutions. • (Parthan et al., 2010) report that absence of risk mitigation facilities in

developing countries is constraining the flow of private finance to low-carbon energy investments.

• In Fiji, there can be introduction of new insurance product where insurance is provided for RE projects which covers natural disasters.

• Past resource data (wind or solar) can be studied to ensure reduction in resource supply risk for energy conversion.

• In addition, for biomass resource, long-term contracts with resource suppliers should reduce supply chain risk .

• An established and bankable contractor for construction minimizes the risks of a project not meeting its specifications.

• Conducive policies and an incentive framework reduce the risk in RE and EE market development.

Stakeholder Capacity Building and Development• Another factor to minimize the risk of RE or EE failure is to educate

consumers or community involved, that is, capacity building of stakeholders involved.

• Capacity building for all stakeholders can be carried out by the donor agency which sets up the RE or EE project or by GoF.

• Capacity building on setting up and managing a finance scheme for maintenance of RE or EE can minimize the risk of failure of RE or EE system.

• Financing institutions and decision makers should also be sensitized about sustainable energy project development .

• Capacity development for land owners to empower them about the sustainable use of their resources, especially in regards to biomass resources

Credible Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) for Renewable based power producers• Currently, in Fiji there is no structure for feed-in-tariff (FiT) for

electricity generated from different sources of electricity and in the different locations.

• (FCC, 2014) report the new minimum IPP tariff rate as 33.08 Fijian cents VEP/kWh . This rate is expected to boost IPP investment.

• However, this rate is for “24/7”energy providers; intermittent energy providers such as solar PV get much less.

Strengthen institutions and government departments supporting sustainable energy development• The energy institutions in Fiji are responsible for energy planning, energy

policy making, energy project financing, determination of energy prices (electricity tariff and fuel prices) and energy research.

• These institutions need to be well financed and adequately staffed to carry out its responsibilities effectively.

• For non-energy institutions who are indirectly involved such as land trust board, finance institutions, licensing of new business approvals from necessary departments, need to be adequately staffed and financed.

• In addition, work done by different departments directly involved in energy sector should plan an integrated approach so their actions would be efficient, effective, more transparent and more coordinated.

• To have a complete picture of energy scene there needs to be a national data repository where all energy related data are collected and available to stakeholders and investors.

Thank You