Tourism Trends and Prospects: World...
Transcript of Tourism Trends and Prospects: World...
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
John G.C. Kester
Chief of Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
World Tourism Organization www.unwto.org
Tourism Trends and Prospects: World Trends UNWTO-PATA Tourism Trends and Research Conference, 29 June – 1 July 2007, Guilin, China
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
Objective: monitoring short-term evolution of worlwide tourism
Frequency: 3 times a year (January, June, October)
Permanent elements:
• Short term tourism data
• In focus
• WTO Panel of Tourism Experts
• Economic data relevant for tourism
UNWTO World Tourism Barometer
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
Results 2006
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
2006 results maintained strength • US$ 735 billion international tourism receipts
• + US$ 58 billion as compared to 2005
International Touristm Receipts, 1990-2006
0
200
400
600
800
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
*
US
$ b
illio
n
Source: World Tourism Organization
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
US$ 58 million more
Europe
+ 27 billion
(47%)
Africa
+ 3 billion
(4%)
Middle East
+ 0.5 billion
(1%)
Americas
+ 15 billion
(8%)
Asia and
the Pacific + 19 billion
(33%)
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
Asia and the Pacific has consolidated its
position as 2nd most visited region in the world
International Tourist Arrivals
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006*
millio
n
Asia and the Pacific
Americas
Source: World Tourism Organization *Preliminary results
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
In 2006, Asia and the Pacific equals Americas in receipts
International Tourism Receipts
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006*
US
$ b
illio
n
Asia and the Pacific
Americas
Source: World Tourism Organization *Preliminary results
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
International Tourism International tourist arrivals and receipts and market share (%)
Americas
ITA: 136 million (16%)
ITR: US$ 153 billion (21%)
Africa
ITA: 41 million (5%)
ITR: US$ 24 billion (3%)
Europe
ITA: 457 million (54%)
ITR: US$ 378 billion (51%)
Middle East
ITA: 41 million (5%)
ITR: US$ 27 bn (4%)
Asia and the Pacific
ITA: 167 million (20%)
ITR: US$ 153 billion (21%)
International Tourist Arrivals (ITA), 2006*
842 million
International Tourism Receipts (ITR), 2006*
US$ 680 billion
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
95/94 96/95 97/96 98/97 99/98 '00/'99 '01/'00 '02/'01 '03/'02 '04/'03 '05/'04 '06*/'05
% c
ha
ng
e o
ve
r p
rev
iou
s y
ea
r
international tourist arrivals
international tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices)
International tourism volume and receipts: growth in receipts almost equal to growth in arrivals in 2006
Asian financial
and economic
crisis:
expenditure
grew slower
11S, SARS, economic
downturn: receipts
more affected
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
Growth of International Tourism 2006 Asia grew receipts faster than arrivals
4.94.3
7.8
2.1
9.8
6.0
4.54.0
9.4
1.8
10.0
-3.4-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
World Europe Asia and the
Pacific
Americas Africa Middle East
% c
ha
ng
e o
ver
sam
e p
eri
od
of
the
pre
vio
us
yea
r
international tourist arrivals
international tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices)
Source: World Tourism Organization
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
Asia and the Pacific
International Tourist Arrivals, 2006*
167 million (+7.8%)
20% of the world share
International Tourism Receipts, 2006*
US$ 153 billion (+9.4%)
21% of the world share
Receipts per arrival, 2006*
US$ 920
vs. US$ 870 for the world
South Asia
9 mn (+11.7%)
US$ 11.5 bn (+14%)
North-East Asia
94 mn (+7.4%)
US$ 75 bn (+11.6%)
South-East Asia
54 mn (+9.3%)
US$ 41 bn (+9.7%) Oceania
10.5 mn (+0.6%)
US$ 26 bn (+1.7%)
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
* preliminary results
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
International Tourist Arrivals, 2006* (million)
49.6
17.515.8
13.910.7
7.6 7.3 6.2 5.5 4.9 4.4 3.6 3.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
China
Mala
ysia
Hong
Kong
(Chin
a)
Thaila
nd
Mac
ao (C
hina)
Singap
ore
Japa
n
Korea
, Rep
ublic
of
Austra
lia (V
F)
Indo
nesia
India
Vietna
m
Taiwan
(pr.
of C
hina)
Mayor destinations in Asia and the Pacific
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
International Tourism Receipts, 2006* (billion)
33.9
17.8
12.4 11.69.6 8.9 8.5 8.0 7.1
5.3 5.1 4.5 4.43.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
China
Austra
lia
Thaila
nd
Hong
Kong
(Chin
a)
Mala
ysia
India
Japa
n
Mac
ao (C
hina)
(200
5)
Singap
ore
Korea
, Rep
ublic
of
Taiwan
(pr.
of C
hina)
New Z
ealan
d
Indo
nesia
Vietna
m
Mayor destinations in Asia and the Pacific
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
International tourist arrivals to Asia and the Pacific
0
100
200
300
400
500
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
mill
ion
Actual
Tourism 2020
Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision
200 mn
167 mn
400 mn
Source: World Tourism Organization
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
Results 2007 January-April
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
World, International Tourist Arrivals
2006-2007* : monthly evolution
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
jan f eb mar apr may jun jul ago sep oct nov dec
mill
ion
2007*
2006
Arrivals January-April 2007: +6.3%
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
International Tourism:
Monthly trend, 2005-2007*
International Tourist Arrivals, World
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
chan
ge o
ver
sam
e m
onth
pre
viou
s ye
ar (
% )
2005 2006
*Resultados preliminares
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
International Tourism:
Monthly trend, 2005-2007*
International Tourist Arrivals, Asia and the Pacific
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
chan
ge o
ver
sam
e m
onth
pre
viou
s ye
ar (
% )
2005 2006
*Resultados preliminares
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
Asia and the Pacific, International Tourist Arrivals
2006-2007* : monthly evolution
0
5
10
15
20
jan f eb mar apr may jun jul ago sep oct nov dec
mill
ion
2007*
2006
Arrivals January-April 2007: +8.6%
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
International Tourism, Forecast 2007
International Tourist Arrivals
5.4
4.1
7.8
5.9
8.9
5.9
4.9
4.3
7.8
2.1
9.8
6.0
4
3
8
2
9
4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
World Europe Asia and the
Pacific
Americas Africa Middle East
% c
ha
ng
e o
ver
sam
e p
eri
od
of
the
pre
vio
us
yea
r
'05/'04
'06/'05
Forecast 2007
Source: World Tourism Organization
*Preliminary results
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
International Tourism, first results 2007
International Tourist Arrivals
4.9
4.3
7.8
2.1
9.8
6.0
4
3
8
2
9
4
6.3
5.8
8.6
3.8
8.1 8.1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
World Europe Asia and the
Pacific
Americas Africa Middle East
% c
ha
ng
e o
ver
sam
e p
eri
od
of
the
pre
vio
us
yea
r
'06/'05
Forecast 2007
07*/06 Jan-apr
Source: World Tourism Organization
*Preliminary results
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
World, Growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Longest period of sustained growth for 25 years
2.1 2.2
1.1
3.0
4.7
3.8 3.73.9
4.7
3.8
2.9
1.6
2.4 2.4
3.8 3.7
4.1 4.2
2.7
3.7
4.8
2.5
3.1
4.0
5.3
4.9
5.4
4.9 4.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06'07*'08*
% c
hang
e ov
er p
revi
ous
year
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
Advanced economies, GDP growth However, strength is not coming from advanced economies
0.9
1.8
0.2
2.9
4.7
3.7
3.3
3.6
4.7
3.9
3.1
1.5
2.2
1.4
3.4
2.8 2.9
3.4
2.5
3.5
4
1.2
1.6
1.9
3.3
2.5
3.1
2.52.7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06'07*'08*
% c
hang
e ov
er p
revi
ous
year
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
Emerging market and developing economies, GDP growth Growth driven by emerging market and developing economies
4.0
2.82.6
3.2
4.9
3.9
4.24.4
4.8
3.6
2.8
1.9
2.6
4.0
4.4
5.0
5.7
5.3
3.0
4.1
6.0
4.3
5.0
6.7
7.77.5
7.97.5
7.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06'07*'08*
% c
hang
e ov
er p
revi
ous
year
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
W TO Panel o f Tourism Expert s, W o rld
50
75
100
125
150
175
P r ospe c t s
Ev a l ua t i on
WTO World Tourism Barometer Much
better
Better
Equal
Worse
Much
worse
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
W TO Panel o f T o urism Expert
A sia and t he Pacif ic
50
75
100
125
150
175
P r ospe c t s
Ev a l ua t i on
WTO World Tourism Barometer Much
better
Better
Equal
Worse
Much
worse
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
Outbound tourism
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
China surpassed Italy as 6th largest outbound market by expenditure
International Tourism Expenditure
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
*
US
$ b
illio
n
Germany
United States
United Kingdom
France
Japan
China
Italy
Source: World Tourism Organization *Preliminary results
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
Outbound Tourism
International Tourism Expenditure, 2006 (US$ billion) (countries with expenditure > US$ 5 bn)
7572
63
31
2724 23
2119 18 17 17
1412 12 12 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 5
17
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Germ
any
United
Sta
tes
United
King
dom
Franc
e
Japa
nChin
aIta
ly
Canad
a
Russia
n Fed
erat
ion
Korea
, Rep
ublic
of
Belgium
Nethe
rland
sSpa
in
Hong
Kong
(Chin
a)
Norway
Austra
lia
Sweden
Singap
ore
Switzer
land
Austri
a
Taiwan
(pr.
of C
hina)
Mex
icoIn
dia
Denm
ark
Irelan
dBra
zil
Poland
Kuwait
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
% change over same period of the previous year (local currencies, current prices)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Germ
any
United
Sta
tes
United
King
dom
Franc
e
Japa
nChin
aIta
ly
Canad
a
Russia
n Fed
erat
ion
Korea
, Rep
ublic
of
Belgium
Nethe
rland
sSpa
in
Hong
Kong
(Chin
a)
Norway
Austra
lia
Sweden
Singap
ore
Switzer
land
Austri
a
Taiwan
(pr.
of C
hina)
Mex
icoIn
dia
Denm
ark
Irelan
dBra
zil
Poland
Kuwait
'06/'05 '07/'06 YTD
Outbound Tourism
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
Established and emerging markets
• Established markets – Far from saturated, but growth potential is comparatively
moderate
– Growth from increased participation and increased
frequency
– Further diversification
– Demographic changes
• Emerging markets – Still huge growth potential
– Many emerging economies have rapid economic growth
producing increasing disposable incomes
– Shift from traditional source markets to alternatives
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
Changes in consumer profile & behaviour
• (more) mature and experienced, well travelled and better
educated consumers that know what they want and what
they can get
• search for value for money
• more fickle and less loyal
• shift in power from producers to consumers (from a
sellers to a buyers market)
• development accelerated and intensified by: – Increased competition between destinations and operators
in a globalised market
– LCCs have drastically improved accessibility, choice & price
– Internet has increased flexibility and transparency and has
changed only few industries as much as the tourism
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
billi
on
Telev ision
New spapers
Magazines
Internet
Radio
Outdoor
Cinema
Global advertising expenditure by medium
Source: ZenithOptimedia
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
www.unwto.org => Facts & Figures link
UNWTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
John Kester
Market Intelligence and Promotion Department
email: [email protected]
Thank you very much for your attention!
World Tourism Organization
www.unwto.org