Tote Sport Trophy

8/14/2019 Tote Sport Trophy

1/6

A Nag-Nag-Nag Publication

----

2010 Newbury'Totesport Trophy'

Trends Guide

----Featuring:Statistics, trends, in-depth race analysis,horse profiles

and Including

the Exclusive Nag3 Ratings

Copyright: Gavin Priestley


2/6

totesport TROPHY (H'cap Hurdle)

2M 110YDS, GRADE 3, 4YO +

RACE HISTORY

One of the biggest ante-post betting races of the season the totesport Trophy has been known bymany names during it's life but is probably still most fondly remembered as The Schweppes. It

always attracts a big field and as such takes a bit of working out but with some fairly reliable trends

and a Cheltenham trial in particular that stand out as a decent pointer towards this race we should be

able to narrow the field down quite a bit. Here goes....

RECENT TRENDS

Killer stat: All of the last 10 winners had finished in the top 2 in at least 1 of their last 2 runs

Age

9 of the last 10 winners were aged 5-7yo

Betting

9 of the last 10 winners came from the top 7 in the betting

9 of the last 10 winners returned 16/1 or under

Class

All of the last 10 winners were rated less than 149

All of the last 9 winners had a top 3 finish in a class 2 or better handicap hurdle

Distance

All of the last 10 winners had won a hurdle race at 2m - 2m1f

Previous runs

9 of the last 10 winners had run between 1-4 times since October

9 of the last 10 winners had run 15 or less times over hurdles

None of the last 10 winners had won more than 2 races since October

Interesting Fact: 7 of the last 9 winners contested either the Pierse Hurdle or the H'cap Hurdle at

Cheltenham's end of January meeting.

Interesting Fact 2: Paul Nicholls, David Pipe and Jonjo O'Neill haven't had a placed runnerbetween them in the last 10 runnings of the race.


3/6

HOW THE LEADING FANCIES FIT THE TOP TRENDS

5-7yo Rated less

than 149

Distance

winner

Top 2 in one

of last 2 runsTop 3 finish

in Cl.2 H'cap

1-4 runs

since Oct.

Blue Bajan x x P x P P

Mutual Friend P P P P P PMamlook P P P P P P

Songe P P P P P P

Takeroc P P P x P P

Ronaldo des Mot' P P P P x P

Spirit River P P P P x P

First Point P P P x P x

Simarian P P P x x P

Ring The Boss x P P x P PStravinsky Dance P P P x x P

Any Given Day P P P P P P

Harry Tricker P P P P P P

Frontier Dancer P P P P P P

Manyriverstocros P P P P x P

Get Me out of H' P P P P x P

European Dream P P P x P P

Fairyland P P P P P P

Fushe Jo P P P P x P

Numide P P P x P P

Pascha Bere P P x x P P

Arch Rebel x P P P ? P (18k) P

Oldrik P P P P P P

Chaninbar P P P P x P

Last Years Winner (at time of race ) - 2008

Wingman

TRAINER RECORDS

(RUNNERS WINS - PLACED)

N. HENDERSON 24 4 4

GL MOORE 7 2 2

P HOBBS 15 0 8

W MULLINS 7 0 0

P NICHOLLS 6 0 0

JJ O'NEILL 6 0 0D PIPE 4 0 0


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1999 2008 PAST WINNERS

Year Form Horse Hurdle Runs Age Weight Rated Odds Trainer 2009 ABANDONED

2008 1-713 WINGMAN 6 10-00 124 14/1 GL MOORE

2007 0020 HEATHCOTE 5 10-06 126 50/1 GL MOORE

2006 ABANDONED

2005 13-11 ESSEX 5 11-06 144 4/1F MJ O'BRIEN

2004 405-2 GEOS 9 10-09 149 16/1 N HENDERSON

2003 2315 SPIRIT LEADER 7 10-00 131 14/1 Mrs J HARRINGTON

2002 53-21 COPELAND 7 11-07 142 13/2 M PIPE

2001 1-31 LANDING LIGHT 6 10-02 133 4/1F N HENDERSON

2000 3132 GEOS 5 11-03 139 15/2 N HENDERSON

1999 1-242 DECOUPAGE 7 11-00 135 6/1 C EGERTON

1998 F2-26 SHARPICAL 6 11-01 132 10/1 N HENDERSON

AGE OF THE WINNER (WINS / PLACES / NUMBER OF RUNNERS)

4yo (0/0/1) 5yo (3/13/54) 6yo (3/7/59) 7yo (3/4/45) 8yo (0/2/21) 9yo (1/1/16) 10yo+(0/3/10)

OFFICIAL RATINGS BAN (WINS / PLACES / NUMBER OF RUNNERS)

110-119 (0/1/1) 120-129 (2/4/36) 130-139 (5/15/93) 140-149 (3/8/67) 150+ (0/2/9)

HOW THE FAVOURITES FARED

Favourites finishing position: 0-6-4-1-P-2-2-1-A-0-7-A To 1 Level Stake: 0.00

Position of winner in market: 5-2-2-1-3-6-7-1-A-18-7-A

PACE IN THE RACE HOW THE FIRST THREE FINISHERS RACED

LED 3 RACED PROMINENT 10MID-DIVISION 11 HELP UP IN REAR 16

AVERAGE JOE THE AVERAGE PROFILE OF THE WINNER

AGE WEIGHT POSITION

LAST TIME

RUNS THAT

SEASON

DAYS SINCE

LAST RUN

NUMBER OF

HURDLE RUNS

ODDS

6 10 12 3 3 39 10 13 1

THE RANGE SMALLEST & BIGGEST FIGURE FOR LAST 10 RUNNINGS

AGE 5 9 No. OF HURDLE RUNS 3 23

WEIGHT 10-00 11-07 DAYS SINCE LAST RUN 14 77

LAST RUN 1 2 ODDS 4/1 50/1

SEASONAL RUNS 1 6 OFFICIAL RATINGS 124 149

COUNTRY OF ORIGIN

(RUNNERS WINNERS PLACED % WIN & PLACE)to No. of Runners / to No. of Places (40)

GB Bred 72 4 11 20.8% 37.5%

Irish Bred 68 4 9 19.1% 32.5%

French Bred 44 2 9 25% 27.5%German Bred 11 0 1 9.1% 2.5%

USA Bred 9 0 0 0% 0%

Other 2 0 0 0% 0%


5/6

PROFILES OF THE LEADING FANCIES

Last 5 runs....

...at Newbury ...at 16/17f .in aGr.3 .in Feb ...on G/S

h'cap

Blue Bajan 9 04467 91 9 08267

Mutual Friend 2 12310 - 2 240Mamlook - 1B062 B0 4 70062

Songe - 98427 - 19 14330

Takeroc - 35775 - 117 113

Ronaldo des Mot' - 12001 00 12 201

Spirit River 5 51 - - -

First Point 54 11614 6 - 011U

Simarian - 738F0 8 - 7

Ring The Boss 14 11628 - 412 28240

Stravinsky Dance - - - - -

Any Given Day 5 132 - - -

Harry Tricker 6 3P512 2 2313 30F63Frontier Dancer 2 1F212 - 5 4F2

Manyriverstocross 7 13 - - -

Get Me out of H' 1 1111 - - 1

European Dream 3 U6267 6 27 31067

Fairyland 1 10831 8 1 201

Fushe Jo - 321P1 - - P

Numide - 44249 1 4 049

Pascha Bere - 30233 0 1 1733

Arch Rebel - 60820 000 - 6

Oldrik 6 30228 - 43 11130

Chaninbar - 20614 - P 24242

RACE TRIALS

CHELTENHAM H'CAP HURDLE January 30th

16 runners this year for this class 2 handicap that has provided three recent totesport winners in the

shape of Heathcote, Landing Light and Copeland (the latter two both won this race).

With only two horses than ran in this years race entered for Saturday it might be easy to dismiss the

race this year but both ran sound trials with the totesport in mind. Takeroc was having his first run

of the season and came down to the last with every chance before his fitness gave way and the

famous Cheltenham hill took it's toll. Back on the flat track of Newbury and a recent run under hisbelt this Graded placed hurdler should not be underestimated.

The other runner to hold an entry in the Totesport is Oldrikand he appeals to me as a horse with a

chance at a massive price. He was sent off the 3 rd favourite for the Cheltenham race on the back of

two good seconds and having been held up in the rear he was asked for his effort between the last

two hurdles. Staying on nicely at the last he made a complete horlicks of the hurdle which set him

back and gave him little chance to get back into it. Nicely weighted on 10-00 and from a stable

that's been knocking on the door in the totesport his current odds of 50/1 look appealing for those

wanting a big priced outsider to back.


6/6

APPLYING THE TRENDS

We'll start by losing those without a top 2 finish in a recent run...

Blue Bajan, Takeroc, First Point, Simarian, Ring The Boss, Stravinsky Dance, European Dream,

Numide and Pascha Bere

or those who haven't finished in the top 3 of a class 2 or better handicap hurdle....Ronaldo Des Mottes, Spirit River, Manyriverstocross, Get Me out of Here, Fusche Jo and

Chaninbar

Next to go are the over 7's....

Arch Rebel

It's now time to remove those horses to have had more than 15 hurdle runs....

Mutual Friend (17) and Oldrik (21)

Fancied horses tend to do well in this race so we'll take out any rank outsiders we have left..

Songe, Frontier Dancer and Any Given Day

77 days ago is the cut off point for a last run which rules out....

Harry Tricker (90 days)

Which leaves us with 2 very nice looking runners. One comes from the Nicky Henderson stable

who has such a fine record in the race and one from David Pipe who has yet to match his dad's

success in this contest (yet!) but won a really good quality handicap hurdle at Ascot last time out.

As a competitive 24 runner handicap I think it's prudent to make them both....

THE LIKELIEST TRENDS WINNER: FAIRYLAND & MAMLOOK

NAG RATINGS

FAIRYLAND 84

HARRY TRICKER 83

MAMLOOK 82

SPIRIT RIVER 80

OLDRIK 79

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