Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS...

378
September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner LIKELY Likely Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal Mod erate Conser vative Vote Summary Total answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450) Democrat 45 44 81 26 6 100 0 0 0 100 74 42 22 Republican 32 36 4 28 83 0 100 0 100 0 4 27 62 DTS 19 16 13 37 10 0 0 100 0 0 18 26 12 Other 4 3 2 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 3 Democrat 44 43 100 0 0 79 5 30 17 0 77 42 18 Independent 29 28 0 100 0 17 25 54 78 79 19 37 26 Republican 26 28 0 0 100 3 67 13 0 16 4 20 55 Democrat 55 53 100 39 0 89 9 53 27 47 94 55 22 Independent 9 7 0 30 0 4 7 18 22 19 2 15 5 Republican 35 38 0 31 100 6 82 26 45 29 4 30 72 Right direction 10 8 12 8 7 12 6 10 6 13 14 8 8 Wrong track 82 86 77 84 88 76 90 81 89 70 76 83 87 (Don't know) 7 5 9 7 5 10 4 7 5 16 9 8 4 (Refuse) 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 1 0 Approve 56 54 84 49 18 77 23 61 38 52 82 60 26 Disapprove 37 40 11 41 76 15 71 32 54 34 11 32 69 (Don't know) 6 4 4 8 5 6 5 5 5 13 5 7 5 (Refuse) 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 0 Brown 46 49 71 36 16 68 17 41 20 51 75 48 19 Whitman 42 44 20 46 75 21 72 40 59 34 15 40 69 (Other) 2 1 1 5 1 1 3 3 7 1 2 2 3 (Undecided) 9 5 7 11 7 8 7 15 10 12 6 9 8 (Refused) 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 4 1 1 2 1 Brown 51 52 80 39 16 76 17 46 21 56 82 52 22 Whitman 44 45 20 48 83 22 77 44 64 36 16 42 73 (Other) 2 1 1 5 1 1 3 3 7 1 2 2 3 (Undecided) 3 1 0 6 0 1 2 7 6 5 0 4 2 (Refused) 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 1 0 Boxer 53 51 80 45 16 76 17 56 28 58 83 56 22 Fiorina 38 43 13 41 79 15 75 31 58 25 11 33 70 (Other) 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 1 1 (Undecided) 7 4 6 10 4 7 6 9 10 15 4 9 5 (Refused) 2 2 1 3 1 2 1 2 4 1 1 2 1 Boxer 57 54 87 48 16 83 19 58 32 65 88 60 25 Fiorina 40 44 13 43 83 15 79 33 61 26 11 35 73 Other 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 1 1 Undecided 2 1 0 6 0 1 2 5 5 7 0 3 1 Refused 0 1 0 2 0 0 1 1 2 1 0 1 0 Support Obama 59 56 88 51 19 81 23 66 37 55 87 63 27 Oppose Obama 30 34 6 34 66 9 62 24 48 22 6 24 62 (Don't know) 9 7 5 12 11 8 11 8 11 18 6 10 8 (Refused) 3 3 1 4 4 2 4 3 4 4 1 4 3 Page 1 Simulated Senate Vote 52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies? 3-1-3 Party ID 10 Direction of the state 12 Obama job approval 19 Governor Vote KEY GRPS IDEOLOGY Simulated Governor Vote 23 Senate Vote Party Registration 2-3-2 Party ID Total PARTY ID PARTY REG

Transcript of Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS...

Page 1: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LIKELY

Likely Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS

Reg Rep Not ID Rep

Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Mod erate

Conser vative

Vote SummaryTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)

Democrat 45 44 81 26 6 100 0 0 0 100 74 42 22Republican 32 36 4 28 83 0 100 0 100 0 4 27 62DTS 19 16 13 37 10 0 0 100 0 0 18 26 12Other 4 3 2 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 3

Democrat 44 43 100 0 0 79 5 30 17 0 77 42 18Independent 29 28 0 100 0 17 25 54 78 79 19 37 26Republican 26 28 0 0 100 3 67 13 0 16 4 20 55

Democrat 55 53 100 39 0 89 9 53 27 47 94 55 22Independent 9 7 0 30 0 4 7 18 22 19 2 15 5Republican 35 38 0 31 100 6 82 26 45 29 4 30 72

Right direction 10 8 12 8 7 12 6 10 6 13 14 8 8Wrong track 82 86 77 84 88 76 90 81 89 70 76 83 87(Don't know) 7 5 9 7 5 10 4 7 5 16 9 8 4(Refuse) 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 1 0

Approve 56 54 84 49 18 77 23 61 38 52 82 60 26Disapprove 37 40 11 41 76 15 71 32 54 34 11 32 69(Don't know) 6 4 4 8 5 6 5 5 5 13 5 7 5(Refuse) 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 0

Brown 46 49 71 36 16 68 17 41 20 51 75 48 19Whitman 42 44 20 46 75 21 72 40 59 34 15 40 69(Other) 2 1 1 5 1 1 3 3 7 1 2 2 3(Undecided) 9 5 7 11 7 8 7 15 10 12 6 9 8(Refused) 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 4 1 1 2 1

Brown 51 52 80 39 16 76 17 46 21 56 82 52 22Whitman 44 45 20 48 83 22 77 44 64 36 16 42 73(Other) 2 1 1 5 1 1 3 3 7 1 2 2 3(Undecided) 3 1 0 6 0 1 2 7 6 5 0 4 2(Refused) 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 1 0

Boxer 53 51 80 45 16 76 17 56 28 58 83 56 22Fiorina 38 43 13 41 79 15 75 31 58 25 11 33 70(Other) 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 1 1(Undecided) 7 4 6 10 4 7 6 9 10 15 4 9 5(Refused) 2 2 1 3 1 2 1 2 4 1 1 2 1

Boxer 57 54 87 48 16 83 19 58 32 65 88 60 25Fiorina 40 44 13 43 83 15 79 33 61 26 11 35 73Other 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 1 1Undecided 2 1 0 6 0 1 2 5 5 7 0 3 1Refused 0 1 0 2 0 0 1 1 2 1 0 1 0

Support Obama 59 56 88 51 19 81 23 66 37 55 87 63 27Oppose Obama 30 34 6 34 66 9 62 24 48 22 6 24 62(Don't know) 9 7 5 12 11 8 11 8 11 18 6 10 8(Refused) 3 3 1 4 4 2 4 3 4 4 1 4 3

Page 1

Simulated Senate Vote

52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?

3-1-3 Party ID

10 Direction of the state

12 Obama job approval

19 Governor Vote

KEY GRPS IDEOLOGY

Simulated Governor Vote

23 Senate Vote

Party Registration

2-3-2 Party ID

Total PARTY ID PARTY REG

Page 2: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated Right Wrong

Vote SummaryTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)

Democrat 45 76 68 12 6 33 100 100 0 0 8 57 42Republican 32 2 7 68 80 26 0 0 100 100 4 18 35DTS 19 17 21 19 11 35 0 0 0 0 74 21 19Other 4 4 4 2 3 6 0 0 0 0 14 4 4

Democrat 44 82 78 0 0 12 89 71 10 2 31 55 42Independent 29 18 22 29 24 74 9 22 33 20 54 24 29Republican 26 0 0 71 76 2 1 6 57 78 11 19 27

Democrat 55 100 100 0 0 15 97 82 17 3 54 72 52Independent 9 0 0 0 0 70 1 6 12 4 18 5 9Republican 35 0 0 100 100 3 2 11 72 92 23 20 38

Right direction 10 13 13 10 3 7 13 12 7 4 11 100 0Wrong track 82 76 77 83 93 83 76 76 88 92 81 0 100(Don't know) 7 10 8 6 3 8 10 11 5 4 7 0 0(Refuse) 1 1 2 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0

Approve 56 85 81 33 8 47 84 72 39 10 60 82 51Disapprove 37 9 14 59 86 38 9 21 51 84 32 12 42(Don't know) 6 5 5 6 5 10 5 7 6 5 6 5 5(Refuse) 1 2 0 2 0 4 2 0 3 0 1 0 1

Brown 46 77 64 25 10 24 81 60 27 11 41 59 44Whitman 42 15 26 64 82 39 12 28 61 80 40 30 45(Other) 2 1 0 1 2 8 1 0 2 3 3 2 2(Undecided) 9 5 8 8 5 25 5 10 7 5 14 8 8(Refused) 2 1 1 2 1 3 1 2 3 1 1 1 2

Brown 51 84 74 25 10 28 86 69 28 11 46 66 48Whitman 44 15 26 74 88 40 12 29 67 86 43 31 47(Other) 2 1 0 1 2 8 1 0 2 3 3 2 2(Undecided) 3 0 0 0 0 21 0 2 1 1 7 1 3(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 1 0 1 0 0

Boxer 53 86 76 26 10 34 87 69 28 10 54 76 49Fiorina 38 9 15 66 85 36 7 20 62 85 31 17 43(Other) 1 0 0 1 1 3 0 0 1 1 2 0 1(Undecided) 7 4 7 7 3 22 4 9 7 3 11 7 6(Refused) 2 1 2 0 1 5 1 1 2 1 2 0 2

Boxer 57 91 85 26 10 37 92 77 31 10 58 79 52Fiorina 40 9 15 73 90 36 7 21 67 89 33 18 44Other 1 0 0 1 1 3 0 0 1 1 2 0 1Undecided 2 0 0 0 0 19 0 2 1 0 6 3 2Refused 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 1 0 1 0 1

Support Obama 59 90 83 36 11 47 90 74 38 13 64 81 55Oppose Obama 30 4 10 44 79 28 4 15 42 77 24 12 34(Don't know) 9 5 5 15 8 18 6 9 14 7 9 6 9(Refused) 3 1 1 6 2 8 0 3 6 3 3 2 3

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3-1-3 Party ID

STATE DIR

23 Senate Vote

Simulated Senate Vote

52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?

10 Direction of the state

12 Obama job approval

19 Governor Vote

Simulated Governor Vote

Party Registration

2-3-2 Party ID

Total PTY/IDEO PTYREG/IDEO

Page 3: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

10 8-10 6-10 0-5 0-7 BrownWhit man Und Ref

Vote SummaryTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)

Democrat 45 40 43 45 46 48 68 23 42Republican 32 44 39 34 24 24 11 54 26DTS 19 13 16 17 26 24 18 19 29Other 4 3 3 3 4 5 4 4 3

Democrat 44 40 43 44 43 45 68 21 37Independent 29 25 26 26 36 32 23 31 35Republican 26 34 30 29 19 21 9 46 20

Democrat 55 46 52 55 57 59 84 28 46Independent 9 6 6 6 14 11 4 8 21Republican 35 47 41 38 27 28 12 62 26

Right direction 10 9 10 10 9 10 13 7 8Wrong track 82 84 84 82 82 80 78 88 74(Don't know) 7 6 6 7 8 9 8 5 18(Refuse) 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 1

Approve 56 48 54 56 56 59 79 32 55Disapprove 37 49 43 39 33 31 15 62 28(Don't know) 6 3 3 5 9 9 5 6 11(Refuse) 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 0 6

Brown 46 41 45 48 41 47 100 0 0Whitman 42 52 48 44 36 36 0 100 0(Other) 2 0 1 1 6 3 0 0 0(Undecided) 9 5 6 6 14 12 0 0 85(Refused) 2 1 1 1 3 2 0 0 15

Brown 51 44 48 51 49 53 100 0 46Whitman 44 54 49 46 40 40 0 100 26(Other) 2 0 1 1 6 3 0 0 0(Undecided) 3 1 1 1 5 4 0 0 25(Refused) 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 4

Boxer 53 42 48 52 55 58 84 25 32Fiorina 38 52 46 41 30 29 13 70 19(Other) 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 1(Undecided) 7 4 4 5 12 11 3 4 40(Refused) 2 1 2 1 2 1 0 1 9

Boxer 57 45 50 55 61 63 86 27 52Fiorina 40 54 47 43 31 31 13 71 28Other 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 1Undecided 2 1 1 1 6 4 0 1 15Refused 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 3

Support Obama 59 50 55 58 60 63 84 33 55Oppose Obama 30 40 36 32 24 24 9 54 22(Don't know) 9 7 7 7 13 10 5 10 16(Refused) 3 2 3 2 3 3 1 3 7

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Party Registration

2-3-2 Party ID

3-1-3 Party ID

10 Direction of the state

Simulated Senate Vote

52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?

12 Obama job approval

19 Governor Vote

Simulated Governor Vote

23 Senate Vote

Total ENTHUSIASM GOV VOTE

Page 4: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Vote SummaryTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)

Democrat 45 73 69 52 53 46 37 29 15 72 52 42 19 46Republican 32 8 14 16 19 26 32 39 66 10 17 28 59 24DTS 19 15 17 25 26 26 28 25 16 15 25 27 18 26Other 4 4 1 7 2 2 4 6 3 3 5 3 4 4

Democrat 44 73 67 47 68 45 32 28 12 72 56 39 16 45Independent 29 21 20 38 19 33 37 35 33 21 30 35 33 33Republican 26 6 12 14 13 17 29 32 55 7 14 22 49 19

Democrat 55 90 78 76 71 59 45 40 14 86 74 53 21 61Independent 9 4 6 6 3 16 17 12 9 4 5 16 10 12Republican 35 7 15 18 26 21 36 43 76 9 21 27 67 25

Right direction 10 9 16 16 24 12 16 7 3 11 19 14 4 16Wrong track 82 81 77 74 65 75 74 80 94 80 71 74 91 73(Don't know) 7 8 6 7 11 12 10 13 2 7 9 11 5 10(Refuse) 1 2 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 1

Approve 56 83 75 76 67 66 54 42 18 81 72 61 25 65Disapprove 37 12 18 15 23 21 36 47 77 14 18 28 69 24(Don't know) 6 3 5 9 9 9 7 11 4 3 9 8 6 9(Refuse) 1 2 1 0 0 3 2 1 1 2 0 3 1 2

Brown 46 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 37Whitman 42 0 0 0 0 49 65 78 91 0 0 56 88 35(Other) 2 0 0 0 0 2 8 4 3 0 0 5 3 3(Undecided) 9 0 0 0 0 43 25 16 3 0 0 35 7 22(Refused) 2 0 0 0 0 6 2 1 3 0 0 4 2 3

Brown 51 100 100 100 100 25 15 8 1 100 100 21 3 50Whitman 44 0 0 0 0 56 70 84 95 0 0 62 92 40(Other) 2 0 0 0 0 2 8 4 3 0 0 5 3 3(Undecided) 3 0 0 0 0 14 7 3 1 0 0 11 2 7(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1

Boxer 53 89 82 77 66 52 38 36 10 87 72 46 17 55Fiorina 38 8 15 20 27 14 42 54 83 10 23 26 75 25(Other) 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 2 0 1 0 2 1(Undecided) 7 3 3 1 7 28 15 8 4 3 4 23 5 16(Refused) 2 0 0 1 0 5 5 0 2 0 1 5 1 3

Boxer 57 91 84 78 69 68 46 39 12 90 74 59 19 64Fiorina 40 8 15 20 30 21 44 55 85 10 24 31 77 28Other 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 2 0 1 0 2 1Undecided 2 0 1 0 1 9 8 5 1 0 0 8 2 5Refused 0 0 0 1 0 2 2 0 0 0 1 2 0 2

Support Obama 59 87 84 80 68 59 60 44 20 87 75 59 26 65Oppose Obama 30 6 9 14 23 18 29 42 66 7 18 23 59 21(Don't know) 9 5 5 6 8 14 9 12 11 5 7 12 11 10(Refused) 3 1 2 0 1 8 1 1 4 2 1 5 3 4

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52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?

12 Obama job approval

19 Governor Vote

Simulated Governor Vote

23 Senate Vote

Total BROWN VCS

Simulated Senate Vote

Party Registration

2-3-2 Party ID

3-1-3 Party ID

10 Direction of the state

Page 5: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Vote SummaryTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)

Democrat 45 15 25 35 51 49 44 61 70 17 42 47 67 45Republican 32 67 47 34 23 22 20 18 10 62 29 21 13 24DTS 19 15 22 26 25 27 30 20 15 17 26 28 17 27Other 4 3 6 5 1 2 6 2 4 4 3 4 3 4

Democrat 44 11 26 30 51 56 42 58 69 15 40 49 66 46Independent 29 31 35 32 26 27 41 25 24 32 29 34 24 32Republican 26 57 36 37 21 14 17 14 7 52 29 15 9 20

Democrat 55 14 38 47 67 63 63 69 84 19 57 63 80 61Independent 9 8 12 8 4 10 15 10 6 9 6 13 7 10Republican 35 78 47 45 27 23 22 18 9 70 36 22 12 27

Right direction 10 3 7 20 14 17 13 15 8 4 17 15 10 16Wrong track 82 94 81 76 78 65 75 77 83 91 77 70 81 72(Don't know) 7 2 12 4 7 19 10 6 7 5 5 15 7 11(Refuse) 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 2 0 1 1 2 1

Approve 56 17 41 52 69 62 69 70 80 23 61 65 77 64Disapprove 37 79 48 41 26 22 20 22 15 71 34 21 17 26(Don't know) 6 4 11 5 5 12 10 6 3 6 5 11 4 9(Refuse) 1 0 0 1 0 4 1 2 2 0 1 2 2 2

Brown 46 0 0 0 0 49 73 75 91 0 0 61 86 38Whitman 42 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 37(Other) 2 0 0 0 0 1 5 5 3 0 0 3 4 2(Undecided) 9 0 0 0 0 42 20 17 4 0 0 31 8 20(Refused) 2 0 0 0 0 8 2 3 1 0 0 5 2 3

Brown 51 0 0 0 0 77 81 85 93 0 0 79 90 50Whitman 44 100 100 100 100 9 7 6 2 100 100 8 3 42(Other) 2 0 0 0 0 1 5 5 3 0 0 3 4 2(Undecided) 3 0 0 0 0 11 6 5 2 0 0 9 3 5(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1

Boxer 53 9 37 44 70 43 67 70 84 16 57 55 80 55Fiorina 38 87 60 49 21 19 24 19 9 80 35 21 12 27(Other) 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 1 1 0(Undecided) 7 3 2 4 8 30 7 10 4 3 6 19 6 14(Refused) 2 1 0 3 1 7 1 0 1 1 2 4 1 3

Boxer 57 11 37 47 75 64 68 75 87 17 61 66 83 64Fiorina 40 88 61 51 23 26 27 19 10 82 37 26 13 30Other 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 1 1 0Undecided 2 1 2 0 2 8 3 5 1 1 1 6 2 4Refused 0 0 0 2 0 3 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 1

Support Obama 59 18 41 64 57 63 74 76 84 24 60 68 81 65Oppose Obama 30 67 48 29 26 17 20 14 8 63 27 18 10 22(Don't know) 9 11 9 6 13 13 6 8 6 10 9 10 7 10(Refused) 3 4 2 1 5 7 1 2 2 3 3 4 2 4

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52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?

12 Obama job approval

19 Governor Vote

Simulated Governor Vote

23 Senate Vote

Total WHITMAN VCS

Simulated Senate Vote

Party Registration

2-3-2 Party ID

3-1-3 Party ID

10 Direction of the state

Page 6: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Brown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

better

Govt back

groundBiz back ground

Brown better

Whit man

better Boxer Fiorina DK/ Ref

Vote SummaryTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)

Democrat 45 65 22 67 27 70 26 61 29 68 26 66 17 45Republican 32 13 57 13 51 11 50 17 48 12 51 10 62 27DTS 19 18 17 17 18 16 19 18 20 15 18 21 16 25Other 4 4 4 3 4 3 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 3

Democrat 44 66 22 71 25 69 26 59 30 69 24 67 15 36Independent 29 23 30 19 29 22 30 25 30 20 31 24 31 42Republican 26 10 47 10 45 9 43 15 39 11 43 8 53 14

Democrat 55 81 26 83 32 84 33 73 37 83 31 84 18 47Independent 9 6 7 4 6 5 8 7 9 3 10 5 10 25Republican 35 13 65 13 61 11 58 19 53 13 58 10 72 20

Right direction 10 12 7 14 6 14 7 10 10 14 5 14 4 8Wrong track 82 79 90 76 89 77 88 80 85 76 89 76 92 71(Don't know) 7 8 3 8 4 8 4 9 4 8 5 9 3 20(Refuse) 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 1

Approve 56 80 27 79 33 81 35 72 40 79 35 80 23 53Disapprove 37 16 67 15 62 13 61 20 55 15 60 13 72 28(Don't know) 6 3 5 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 6 4 14(Refuse) 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 2 1 1 0 1 1 5

Brown 46 84 6 87 12 91 13 71 21 91 12 73 16 17Whitman 42 11 88 8 84 5 79 18 69 5 81 20 77 23(Other) 2 1 2 1 1 0 2 1 3 1 1 1 3 3(Undecided) 9 4 3 3 3 3 4 8 6 2 5 6 4 48(Refused) 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 1 0 1 10

Brown 51 86 8 89 14 94 16 76 24 92 14 77 16 42Whitman 44 12 90 9 85 5 81 21 71 6 83 21 81 34(Other) 2 1 2 1 1 0 2 1 3 1 1 1 3 3(Undecided) 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 2 1 0 19(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3

Boxer 53 81 24 81 29 83 30 71 35 85 28 100 0 0Fiorina 38 14 73 16 66 13 65 22 57 12 65 0 100 0(Other) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0(Undecided) 7 3 2 2 3 3 3 6 5 2 5 0 0 82(Refused) 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 0 1 0 0 18

Boxer 57 84 25 84 31 85 32 75 38 87 30 100 0 47Fiorina 40 14 74 16 68 13 66 24 59 13 67 0 100 20Other 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0Undecided 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 2 0 0 27Refused 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 6

Support Obama 59 82 31 83 36 86 36 76 42 84 35 84 25 52Oppose Obama 30 10 60 12 53 7 53 15 46 10 52 8 62 20(Don't know) 9 6 6 4 8 6 8 7 9 6 9 6 10 21(Refused) 3 2 3 1 3 1 3 2 3 1 3 2 3 7

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Party Registration

2-3-2 Party ID

3-1-3 Party ID

10 Direction of the state

Simulated Senate Vote

52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?

12 Obama job approval

19 Governor Vote

Simulated Governor Vote

23 Senate Vote

ENERGY BCKGRND ECONOMY SEN VOTETotal UNDERSTAND CLEAR PLAN

Page 7: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Vote SummaryTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)

Democrat 45 74 65 60 44 58 24 28 14 71 52 42 17 48Republican 32 7 16 8 14 22 37 42 69 10 11 29 63 18DTS 19 15 18 28 37 18 34 24 14 16 32 26 16 29Other 4 3 2 4 5 3 5 6 4 3 5 4 4 4

Democrat 44 75 64 58 51 46 42 23 8 72 54 44 11 50Independent 29 20 21 31 38 35 21 41 34 20 34 28 35 32Republican 26 4 13 10 10 16 35 33 56 7 10 25 52 16

Democrat 55 91 76 80 75 55 47 31 11 87 78 51 15 67Independent 9 4 7 5 3 21 11 24 9 5 4 16 12 9Republican 35 5 15 13 20 21 41 42 78 8 16 30 71 22

Right direction 10 9 18 20 20 9 10 10 2 11 20 10 4 16Wrong track 82 83 73 63 69 67 81 80 96 80 66 74 93 69(Don't know) 7 6 7 16 10 23 8 10 1 7 13 16 3 14(Refuse) 1 2 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 1

Approve 56 87 73 79 65 63 59 45 13 83 73 61 19 68Disapprove 37 8 20 11 20 19 36 44 82 12 15 27 75 20(Don't know) 6 3 6 10 13 13 4 7 4 4 11 9 5 10(Refuse) 1 2 1 0 2 5 1 4 0 1 1 3 1 2

Brown 46 89 61 60 48 24 35 25 9 81 54 29 12 44Whitman 42 8 27 32 38 26 42 53 81 14 35 34 76 34(Other) 2 1 0 2 2 0 0 5 4 0 2 0 4 1(Undecided) 9 2 11 7 11 38 18 17 5 5 9 29 7 17(Refused) 2 0 0 0 2 12 4 0 1 0 1 8 1 4

Brown 51 91 70 63 58 50 42 30 9 84 60 46 13 54Whitman 44 8 28 33 39 35 55 58 84 14 36 44 79 39(Other) 2 1 0 2 2 0 0 5 4 0 2 0 4 1(Undecided) 3 0 2 3 2 11 2 6 2 1 2 7 3 4(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 1

Boxer 53 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 59Fiorina 38 0 0 0 0 28 72 70 94 0 0 49 90 20(Other) 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 1 2 1(Undecided) 7 0 0 0 0 59 19 26 3 0 0 41 7 17(Refused) 2 0 0 0 0 12 6 4 1 0 0 10 1 4

Boxer 57 100 100 100 100 37 14 12 1 100 100 26 3 70Fiorina 40 0 0 0 0 40 82 75 95 0 0 59 91 25Other 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 1 2 1Undecided 2 0 0 0 0 17 2 12 2 0 0 10 4 4Refused 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 1

Support Obama 59 90 79 79 78 60 61 41 16 86 79 60 21 71Oppose Obama 30 4 10 14 14 14 29 35 71 6 14 21 64 17(Don't know) 9 4 11 6 6 19 9 20 9 6 6 14 11 9(Refused) 3 3 0 1 2 7 2 4 4 2 2 5 4 3

Page 7

52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?

12 Obama job approval

19 Governor Vote

Simulated Governor Vote

23 Senate Vote

Total BOXER VCS

Simulated Senate Vote

Party Registration

2-3-2 Party ID

3-1-3 Party ID

10 Direction of the state

Page 8: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Vote SummaryTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)

Democrat 45 13 26 19 44 57 62 72 15 34 50 69 47Republican 32 71 51 31 21 10 17 8 68 31 16 11 19DTS 19 13 16 44 30 30 19 16 14 31 30 17 30Other 4 4 7 6 5 3 2 3 4 4 4 3 4

Democrat 44 8 24 42 46 54 60 73 10 45 50 69 49Independent 29 33 34 21 37 33 27 21 33 19 35 23 32Republican 26 59 41 37 13 12 11 5 56 36 12 7 17

Democrat 55 10 27 45 64 72 74 88 13 50 68 84 64Independent 9 8 18 13 9 11 10 6 9 11 10 7 10Republican 35 81 54 42 23 15 14 5 77 39 19 8 23

Right direction 10 2 9 9 14 18 18 8 3 11 16 11 15Wrong track 82 96 83 84 70 64 73 84 94 80 67 80 70(Don't know) 7 1 7 7 15 17 8 6 2 10 16 7 14(Refuse) 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 0 0 1 2 1

Approve 56 12 44 63 60 73 72 86 17 64 66 81 65Disapprove 37 83 52 34 22 16 20 10 79 31 19 13 22(Don't know) 6 4 2 3 14 11 6 3 4 5 13 4 11(Refuse) 1 0 2 1 3 0 2 2 1 1 2 2 2

Brown 46 9 26 42 34 51 57 86 11 42 42 77 42Whitman 42 85 66 42 29 34 27 8 82 45 32 14 34(Other) 2 3 2 0 1 1 2 2 3 0 1 2 1(Undecided) 9 2 5 11 28 13 14 3 3 10 21 7 19(Refused) 2 1 0 5 7 1 0 0 1 3 4 0 4

Brown 51 9 26 46 53 56 67 88 11 45 55 81 53Whitman 44 88 72 52 36 37 28 8 85 53 36 15 39(Other) 2 3 2 0 1 1 2 2 3 0 1 2 1(Undecided) 3 0 0 1 8 6 3 2 0 1 7 2 6(Refused) 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1

Boxer 53 0 0 0 62 82 86 96 0 0 71 92 57Fiorina 38 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 20(Other) 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 1 1 1(Undecided) 7 0 0 0 31 13 12 2 0 0 23 5 18(Refused) 2 0 0 0 6 4 2 1 0 0 5 1 4

Boxer 57 0 0 0 79 88 94 97 0 0 83 96 67Fiorina 40 100 100 100 10 4 1 0 100 100 7 0 25Other 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 1 1 1Undecided 2 0 0 0 8 6 4 1 0 0 7 2 5Refused 0 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 2

Support Obama 59 15 38 61 68 73 76 88 18 63 70 84 69Oppose Obama 30 73 38 29 15 18 11 5 68 28 16 7 19(Don't know) 9 8 19 8 11 8 13 4 10 8 9 7 9(Refused) 3 3 5 2 6 1 0 3 4 2 4 2 3

Page 8

52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?

12 Obama job approval

19 Governor Vote

Simulated Governor Vote

23 Senate Vote

Total FIORINA VCS

Simulated Senate Vote

Party Registration

2-3-2 Party ID

3-1-3 Party ID

10 Direction of the state

Page 9: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Support Obama

Oppose Obama

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better Favor Oppose

Impor tant

Not Impor tant

Vote SummaryTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)

Democrat 45 63 14 71 21 69 17 71 19 36 53 55 15Republican 32 12 65 10 60 11 64 11 61 40 24 21 64DTS 19 22 16 16 16 18 15 15 16 21 19 20 19Other 4 3 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 5 4 2

Democrat 44 66 9 74 17 72 15 71 15 34 53 54 13Independent 29 25 32 19 31 20 28 21 34 30 28 26 36Republican 26 8 57 6 52 6 57 7 50 35 18 17 51

Democrat 55 81 13 86 21 86 17 86 19 45 66 68 17Independent 9 6 9 4 10 4 6 4 10 7 9 8 8Republican 35 12 76 9 69 8 77 10 71 47 24 22 73

Right direction 10 13 4 14 5 13 4 13 4 10 10 12 3Wrong track 82 76 94 76 91 79 93 78 93 83 83 78 94(Don't know) 7 9 2 9 4 8 3 8 3 6 6 9 3(Refuse) 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0

Approve 56 85 7 82 24 82 20 82 22 43 66 68 18Disapprove 37 9 90 13 71 12 76 12 73 49 29 24 76(Don't know) 6 5 3 4 4 5 4 5 4 7 4 6 6(Refuse) 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 2 2 1

Brown 46 66 14 76 19 77 17 78 16 35 58 56 14Whitman 42 23 76 17 74 17 78 17 77 52 34 31 76(Other) 2 2 2 0 2 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 4(Undecided) 9 9 6 6 4 4 3 4 4 7 5 10 4(Refused) 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 2

Brown 51 72 15 81 20 81 17 82 16 40 62 62 15Whitman 44 25 80 18 77 18 80 17 79 55 36 33 79(Other) 2 2 2 0 2 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 4(Undecided) 3 1 2 1 1 0 1 0 2 1 1 3 2(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0

Boxer 53 76 15 93 10 92 6 92 10 41 67 65 15Fiorina 38 16 79 5 87 7 92 7 89 52 27 25 78(Other) 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2(Undecided) 7 6 5 1 2 1 1 1 1 4 5 8 3(Refused) 2 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 2 1 1 2

Boxer 57 81 15 94 11 93 6 93 10 44 70 70 17Fiorina 40 17 81 5 87 7 93 7 89 54 28 27 79Other 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2Undecided 2 1 3 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 1Refused 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0

Support Obama 59 100 0 88 26 88 22 87 23 49 68 71 22Oppose Obama 30 0 100 6 63 6 70 6 66 40 24 17 69(Don't know) 9 0 0 5 8 5 6 5 9 9 7 9 6(Refused) 3 0 0 1 3 1 3 1 3 3 2 3 3

Page 9

Party Registration

2-3-2 Party ID

3-1-3 Party ID

10 Direction of the state

Simulated Senate Vote

52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?

12 Obama job approval

19 Governor Vote

Simulated Governor Vote

23 Senate Vote

SHARE VALUES JOBS ECON PROP 23 GW IMPTTotal SENTYPE CHANGE

Page 10: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

White Black Latino Asian Men Women Men Women Men Women

Vote SummaryTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)

Democrat 45 41 57 57 38 42 48 39 43 53 61Republican 32 37 14 22 19 33 30 39 35 24 21DTS 19 18 24 17 43 20 19 18 19 18 16Other 4 4 6 3 0 5 3 4 3 4 2

Democrat 44 40 71 54 45 40 48 36 43 48 58Independent 29 29 17 29 26 32 26 32 27 33 25Republican 26 31 9 15 26 27 24 32 30 19 12

Democrat 55 51 80 67 56 52 59 47 55 63 71Independent 9 9 2 8 8 11 7 10 7 10 7Republican 35 40 15 22 32 37 33 43 38 26 18

Right direction 10 7 21 17 14 10 10 9 6 14 20Wrong track 82 86 77 71 75 83 81 85 86 77 65(Don't know) 7 6 2 11 11 6 8 5 7 8 14(Refuse) 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 0

Approve 56 52 80 64 75 55 57 51 52 62 66Disapprove 37 41 17 28 18 38 36 43 39 29 28(Don't know) 6 6 3 7 5 6 6 4 7 8 6(Refuse) 1 2 0 0 2 1 1 1 2 1 0

Brown 46 46 42 51 46 44 47 44 47 50 52Whitman 42 44 45 32 34 44 40 45 44 36 30(Other) 2 2 1 1 0 3 1 3 2 2 1(Undecided) 9 6 10 15 17 8 10 6 7 13 16(Refused) 2 1 2 1 3 2 1 2 1 0 2

Brown 51 48 47 62 50 49 52 47 49 59 64Whitman 44 47 48 34 43 46 43 47 47 38 30(Other) 2 2 1 1 0 3 1 3 2 2 1(Undecided) 3 2 3 3 7 2 3 2 2 1 5(Refused) 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

Boxer 53 50 59 60 62 49 56 46 54 59 61Fiorina 38 43 34 22 23 43 34 48 39 25 19(Other) 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 2 1(Undecided) 7 4 4 15 12 5 9 3 5 12 18(Refused) 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 3 0

Boxer 57 53 61 70 65 53 60 49 56 66 72Fiorina 40 45 36 24 28 44 36 49 41 27 21Other 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 2 1Undecided 2 2 3 4 6 2 3 1 2 3 5Refused 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 2 0

Support Obama 59 53 76 70 81 57 60 52 54 66 74Oppose Obama 30 35 15 21 12 32 28 37 33 25 17(Don't know) 9 9 3 8 7 7 10 7 10 9 8(Refused) 3 3 6 0 0 3 3 4 3 0 1

Page 10

3-1-3 Party ID

10 Direction of the state

WHT GEN LAT GEN

Simulated Senate Vote

52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?

12 Obama job approval

19 Governor Vote

Simulated Governor Vote

23 Senate Vote

Party Registration

2-3-2 Party ID

Total RACE GENDER

Page 11: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over

Vote SummaryTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)

Democrat 45 44 48 40 47 48 44 48Republican 32 15 24 37 35 40 26 37DTS 19 36 23 19 14 10 26 12Other 4 5 5 3 4 1 4 3

Democrat 44 47 56 40 44 41 47 43Independent 29 37 24 25 28 28 29 28Republican 26 14 18 35 28 30 22 29

Democrat 55 70 66 48 52 49 60 51Independent 9 6 11 9 9 7 8 8Republican 35 22 21 43 38 43 29 40

Right direction 10 17 12 6 8 8 12 8Wrong track 82 68 81 88 85 84 79 85(Don't know) 7 15 6 5 6 6 9 6(Refuse) 1 0 1 0 1 2 0 1

Approve 56 66 64 50 55 50 60 53Disapprove 37 24 28 45 39 44 33 41(Don't know) 6 10 6 4 4 5 7 5(Refuse) 1 0 2 1 2 1 1 1

Brown 46 45 50 41 50 44 45 47Whitman 42 41 33 49 41 44 41 42(Other) 2 3 4 1 2 2 2 2(Undecided) 9 11 12 9 5 7 11 6(Refused) 2 0 1 1 2 3 1 2

Brown 51 52 57 46 53 46 51 50Whitman 44 44 36 51 43 48 44 45(Other) 2 3 4 1 2 2 2 2(Undecided) 3 2 4 2 2 3 3 2(Refused) 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1

Boxer 53 65 53 48 53 46 55 50Fiorina 38 20 35 43 41 47 33 44(Other) 1 2 0 0 0 1 1 1(Undecided) 7 12 11 7 3 4 10 3(Refused) 2 0 2 2 2 2 1 2

Boxer 57 74 57 52 56 48 61 53Fiorina 40 22 36 45 42 48 35 45Other 1 2 0 0 0 1 1 1Undecided 2 2 6 2 1 2 3 1Refused 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1

Support Obama 59 72 68 55 55 50 65 53Oppose Obama 30 20 26 33 32 35 26 33(Don't know) 9 7 6 10 9 10 7 9(Refused) 3 1 1 2 4 4 1 4

Page 11

Party Registration

2-3-2 Party ID

3-1-3 Party ID

10 Direction of the state

Simulated Senate Vote

52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?

12 Obama job approval

19 Governor Vote

Simulated Governor Vote

23 Senate Vote

Total AGE

Page 12: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over 18-29 30-4950 and

over 18-4950 and

over

Vote SummaryTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)

Democrat 45 32 46 34 44 44 37 44 57 55 61 56 61Republican 32 12 32 42 39 44 31 41 20 22 27 21 27DTS 19 48 17 21 13 11 27 12 20 20 9 20 9Other 4 7 6 3 4 2 5 3 3 3 3 3 3

Democrat 44 36 54 35 40 38 42 39 52 52 58 52 58Independent 29 47 25 24 28 28 30 28 33 28 24 31 24Republican 26 17 21 41 33 33 28 33 12 18 17 15 17

Democrat 55 67 63 43 50 46 56 48 72 64 65 68 65Independent 9 7 12 8 8 7 9 8 6 14 6 9 6Republican 35 26 25 49 42 47 36 44 20 20 27 20 27

Right direction 10 16 12 2 6 7 9 6 23 10 17 17 17Wrong track 82 68 82 93 87 87 83 87 64 78 73 70 73(Don't know) 7 16 7 5 5 4 8 5 13 10 10 12 10(Refuse) 1 0 0 0 2 2 0 2 0 2 0 1 0

Approve 56 62 62 44 53 46 54 50 66 59 70 63 70Disapprove 37 26 28 51 41 48 37 44 25 35 24 30 24(Don't know) 6 12 8 3 4 5 7 5 9 5 6 7 6(Refuse) 1 0 1 2 2 1 1 2 0 1 0 1 0

Brown 46 40 48 43 50 42 44 47 50 50 56 50 56Whitman 42 51 34 49 43 47 45 44 33 32 31 33 31(Other) 2 4 6 0 2 2 3 2 2 0 2 1 2(Undecided) 9 4 10 8 3 7 8 5 15 16 10 16 10(Refused) 2 0 1 0 2 2 0 2 0 2 1 1 1

Brown 51 43 54 47 52 44 48 49 60 62 64 61 64Whitman 44 53 38 51 44 51 47 47 34 34 33 34 33(Other) 2 4 6 0 2 2 3 2 2 0 2 1 2(Undecided) 3 0 3 2 1 3 2 2 4 4 1 4 1(Refused) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1

Boxer 53 73 50 43 53 43 53 48 59 60 63 59 63Fiorina 38 18 41 49 44 51 39 47 21 20 25 21 25(Other) 1 3 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 0 2 1 2(Undecided) 7 6 8 5 2 3 6 2 18 17 8 18 8(Refused) 2 0 1 2 1 2 1 1 0 3 2 1 2

Boxer 57 77 53 47 54 45 56 50 71 69 68 70 68Fiorina 40 20 42 51 45 53 41 48 22 24 26 23 26Other 1 3 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 0 2 1 2Undecided 2 0 4 2 1 1 2 1 5 5 2 5 2Refused 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 2

Support Obama 59 72 60 49 52 47 58 50 69 72 71 70 71Oppose Obama 30 20 34 40 35 38 33 36 24 19 19 22 19(Don't know) 9 6 7 10 8 11 8 9 7 9 10 8 10(Refused) 3 2 0 2 5 5 1 5 0 1 0 0 0

Page 12

Party Registration

2-3-2 Party ID

3-1-3 Party ID

23 Senate Vote

Simulated Senate Vote

52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?

10 Direction of the state

12 Obama job approval

19 Governor Vote

Simulated Governor Vote

Total WHT AGE LAT AGE

Page 13: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Young Women

Young Men

Older Women

Older Men

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Vote SummaryTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)

Democrat 45 47 40 50 44 55 42 42 49 46 45Republican 32 24 27 35 39 28 34 32 30 32 31DTS 19 25 27 12 12 14 21 23 18 18 21Other 4 4 6 2 4 3 4 3 4 4 4

Democrat 44 49 44 46 38 50 42 42 47 45 44Independent 29 27 30 25 31 24 29 30 31 27 30Republican 26 20 25 28 30 24 27 28 22 26 25

Democrat 55 64 57 54 48 60 53 53 59 56 55Independent 9 6 10 6 10 5 9 10 9 8 10Republican 35 27 32 39 42 33 35 37 32 34 35

Right direction 10 11 12 9 6 18 8 8 8 12 8Wrong track 82 79 80 83 87 72 83 83 87 79 85(Don't know) 7 10 7 6 6 9 8 8 4 8 7(Refuse) 1 0 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Approve 56 59 60 56 50 62 51 55 59 55 57Disapprove 37 34 31 37 46 31 40 38 36 36 37(Don't know) 6 5 8 6 3 6 8 5 3 7 4(Refuse) 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 2

Brown 46 46 44 49 46 42 42 48 53 42 50Whitman 42 40 43 41 44 39 43 43 40 42 42(Other) 2 0 4 2 1 2 4 1 1 3 1(Undecided) 9 13 8 6 6 15 9 8 5 11 6(Refused) 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 1

Brown 51 53 49 52 49 52 46 51 56 48 54Whitman 44 43 45 43 46 43 47 44 41 46 43(Other) 2 0 4 2 1 2 4 1 1 3 1(Undecided) 3 4 1 2 2 3 3 3 1 3 2(Refused) 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0

Boxer 53 57 53 54 46 56 47 54 57 50 56Fiorina 38 28 38 40 48 32 40 40 37 37 39(Other) 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1(Undecided) 7 13 7 4 3 10 10 5 4 10 4(Refused) 2 2 1 1 3 2 2 1 1 2 1

Boxer 57 64 57 56 49 62 53 56 60 56 58Fiorina 40 31 39 42 48 34 42 41 38 39 40Other 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Undecided 2 5 2 1 1 3 2 2 2 3 2Refused 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0

Support Obama 59 66 63 54 52 59 57 57 64 58 60Oppose Obama 30 25 29 31 37 28 32 31 27 30 29(Don't know) 9 7 8 12 7 11 9 8 7 10 8(Refused) 3 2 1 3 5 2 3 4 2 2 3

Page 13

Party Registration

2-3-2 Party ID

3-1-3 Party ID

10 Direction of the state

Simulated Senate Vote

52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?

12 Obama job approval

19 Governor Vote

Simulated Governor Vote

23 Senate Vote

Total GENDER/AGE EDUCATION

Page 14: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Non College College

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Vote SummaryTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)

Democrat 45 40 35 41 49 37 44 62 44 43 41 49 49Republican 32 42 41 35 31 41 34 19 31 32 34 31 28DTS 19 12 20 21 17 17 19 17 20 20 20 17 21Other 4 6 4 2 3 5 3 2 5 5 5 3 3

Democrat 44 35 36 40 47 36 43 56 46 42 39 47 49Independent 29 30 28 29 30 29 30 27 33 31 32 24 28Republican 26 34 36 31 23 35 27 13 21 27 28 25 23

Democrat 55 46 47 50 59 47 54 70 60 53 51 58 60Independent 9 4 9 10 9 7 10 7 12 11 10 5 9Republican 35 49 44 39 32 45 36 19 29 36 38 33 31

Right direction 10 8 5 8 7 6 8 21 7 10 9 14 6Wrong track 82 86 87 83 88 87 85 66 83 81 85 78 85(Don't know) 7 6 6 7 5 6 6 11 10 8 5 8 8(Refuse) 1 0 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1

Approve 56 51 43 53 60 45 56 68 53 53 57 57 57Disapprove 37 42 48 39 35 46 37 24 41 38 38 35 36(Don't know) 6 7 7 6 3 7 5 8 4 9 3 6 6(Refuse) 1 1 1 2 3 1 2 0 2 0 2 1 2

Brown 46 34 40 49 54 38 51 51 52 41 47 43 53Whitman 42 53 46 43 40 48 41 31 37 44 44 40 40(Other) 2 3 5 1 1 4 1 1 1 5 1 2 1(Undecided) 9 8 7 7 4 7 6 16 9 9 6 13 6(Refused) 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 0 2 1 2 1

Brown 51 38 43 51 57 41 54 63 58 47 51 50 56Whitman 44 57 51 44 41 53 42 32 39 47 45 45 41(Other) 2 3 5 1 1 4 1 1 1 5 1 2 1(Undecided) 3 1 1 4 2 1 3 4 2 1 2 4 2(Refused) 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0

Boxer 53 44 44 52 58 44 55 61 60 47 52 53 59Fiorina 38 48 48 42 37 48 40 19 29 42 44 33 34(Other) 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 2 1 1 0 1(Undecided) 7 6 6 4 3 6 3 17 9 8 3 12 5(Refused) 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 0 3 1 1 1

Boxer 57 49 47 53 60 48 56 71 66 52 54 60 61Fiorina 40 49 50 43 39 50 41 22 30 43 44 36 35Other 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 2 1 1 0 1Undecided 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 5 3 2 1 3 3Refused 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0

Support Obama 59 42 48 54 64 46 58 73 64 56 59 60 61Oppose Obama 30 44 40 33 26 41 30 19 26 33 31 27 28(Don't know) 9 12 9 9 7 10 8 8 10 9 6 10 9(Refused) 3 2 3 5 3 3 4 1 0 2 4 3 2

Page 14

10 Direction of the state

GENDER/EDUC

Simulated Senate Vote

52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?

12 Obama job approval

19 Governor Vote

Simulated Governor Vote

23 Senate Vote

Party Registration

2-3-2 Party ID

3-1-3 Party ID

Total WHT EDUC LAT EDUC

Page 15: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Vote SummaryTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)

Democrat 45 36 41 38 48 46 42 47 48 32 41 41 47Republican 32 41 37 42 30 25 25 39 36 35 29 46 37DTS 19 18 18 17 20 24 29 11 14 26 27 11 13Other 4 6 4 4 2 5 4 3 3 8 3 3 3

Democrat 44 34 37 37 49 47 47 43 43 36 46 36 42Independent 29 32 32 26 27 27 31 26 29 30 30 27 28Republican 26 34 31 37 24 23 22 30 28 34 24 37 30

Democrat 55 44 49 50 59 61 61 51 52 51 59 44 52Independent 9 11 10 4 9 8 9 7 9 8 9 6 9Republican 35 45 41 46 32 29 30 42 38 41 32 50 39

Right direction 10 7 10 6 5 14 9 9 6 7 10 6 6Wrong track 82 86 84 87 86 75 84 83 86 83 83 88 87(Don't know) 7 6 5 6 8 10 7 7 5 9 7 4 5(Refuse) 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 2

Approve 56 42 57 48 55 58 61 52 54 46 60 45 54Disapprove 37 50 38 43 36 32 33 42 40 44 33 49 40(Don't know) 6 7 2 7 7 9 4 5 4 11 4 5 4(Refuse) 1 1 2 1 2 0 2 1 1 0 2 2 2

Brown 46 38 48 38 54 42 49 43 52 37 50 39 53Whitman 42 48 43 49 40 41 42 44 41 50 41 48 41(Other) 2 7 1 3 1 4 1 3 1 7 1 3 1(Undecided) 9 5 6 8 6 13 8 7 5 7 8 6 4(Refused) 2 3 1 2 0 0 1 4 1 0 1 4 1

Brown 51 42 51 41 56 49 54 47 54 39 55 43 53Whitman 44 50 45 55 40 45 43 47 43 55 42 52 43(Other) 2 7 1 3 1 4 1 3 1 7 1 3 1(Undecided) 3 1 3 1 3 3 2 2 2 0 3 1 2(Refused) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0

Boxer 53 38 52 49 57 53 58 47 53 47 57 42 53Fiorina 38 53 45 44 36 32 34 44 43 43 36 52 44(Other) 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 1(Undecided) 7 6 2 6 5 14 6 5 2 8 6 4 2(Refused) 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 3 1 1 2 2 1

Boxer 57 42 53 53 59 60 62 52 54 51 60 45 54Fiorina 40 54 45 46 37 35 35 45 44 45 37 53 44Other 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 1Undecided 2 2 1 1 3 4 3 1 1 1 3 1 1Refused 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0

Support Obama 59 45 58 48 59 64 66 51 55 50 64 44 55Oppose Obama 30 44 31 38 29 27 26 34 32 41 27 41 32(Don't know) 9 9 6 11 10 8 7 12 8 8 8 11 8(Refused) 3 2 5 3 3 2 1 3 5 1 1 4 6

Page 15

Party Registration

2-3-2 Party ID

3-1-3 Party ID

10 Direction of the state

Simulated Senate Vote

52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?

12 Obama job approval

19 Governor Vote

Simulated Governor Vote

23 Senate Vote

Total WHT GEN/EDUC AGE/EDUC WHT AGE/EDUC

Page 16: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

MemberHhold

memberNo

memberTotal Union Member

Hhold member

No member

Total Union Member

No member

Total Union

Vote SummaryTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)

Democrat 45 55 32 44 48 58 20 40 45 51 54 53Republican 32 30 35 31 32 30 42 38 35 29 18 26DTS 19 11 34 20 17 10 38 19 18 13 24 17Other 4 4 0 4 3 3 0 4 3 7 4 3

Democrat 44 52 24 44 43 54 17 39 42 47 56 45Independent 29 22 45 28 31 17 49 29 30 33 26 34Republican 26 25 30 26 25 29 33 31 28 15 15 17

Democrat 55 62 53 55 57 64 51 49 57 57 67 58Independent 9 7 6 9 8 4 5 9 6 14 8 12Republican 35 30 40 35 33 32 44 41 37 24 23 26

Right direction 10 6 11 11 7 3 9 8 4 13 16 14Wrong track 82 87 78 81 83 90 82 85 87 81 74 76(Don't know) 7 5 11 7 8 5 9 6 7 6 10 10(Refuse) 1 1 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 1 1 1

Approve 56 59 48 57 54 61 39 51 53 55 68 56Disapprove 37 35 33 37 37 37 39 42 40 33 27 30(Don't know) 6 6 17 5 9 3 20 5 7 13 4 13(Refuse) 1 0 2 1 0 0 2 2 0 0 1 0

Brown 46 50 36 46 46 56 29 45 47 38 48 43Whitman 42 38 40 42 40 36 54 45 42 44 37 35(Other) 2 1 1 2 1 0 1 3 0 3 1 1(Undecided) 9 10 22 7 13 8 15 5 9 15 12 19(Refused) 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 0 2 1

Brown 51 57 44 50 53 63 30 47 52 43 57 53Whitman 44 39 55 44 45 37 69 47 47 44 39 40(Other) 2 1 1 2 1 0 1 3 0 3 1 1(Undecided) 3 3 0 2 2 0 0 2 0 10 3 5(Refused) 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0

Boxer 53 52 48 53 52 53 52 49 53 51 62 49Fiorina 38 36 32 39 35 39 38 45 38 31 25 30(Other) 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1(Undecided) 7 10 17 6 11 8 8 4 7 14 10 18(Refused) 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 2

Boxer 57 60 57 56 59 61 52 51 59 57 67 60Fiorina 40 37 40 40 38 39 48 46 41 32 28 33Other 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1Undecided 2 2 1 2 2 0 0 2 0 8 3 5Refused 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1

Support Obama 59 62 63 59 59 61 54 53 54 65 71 68Oppose Obama 30 24 23 31 25 27 28 36 29 17 21 18(Don't know) 9 12 10 8 12 12 15 7 13 13 8 8(Refused) 3 2 5 3 4 0 3 4 3 6 0 6

Page 16

10 Direction of the state

NONWT UNION

Simulated Senate Vote

52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?

12 Obama job approval

19 Governor Vote

Simulated Governor Vote

23 Senate Vote

Party Registration

2-3-2 Party ID

3-1-3 Party ID

Total UNION WHT UNION

Page 17: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Married Single

Sep Divor ced

Wid owed

Sep Div Wid

Unmarr ied

Married Women

Unmarr ied

WomenMarried

MenUnmarr ied Men

Voted in person

Voted by mail

Vote SummaryTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)

Democrat 45 44 45 50 53 51 47 47 51 41 42 48 43Republican 32 37 20 27 33 29 24 36 22 38 26 29 38DTS 19 16 29 20 11 17 25 16 22 15 28 20 15Other 4 3 6 2 3 2 4 1 5 5 4 4 3

Democrat 44 42 49 43 49 45 47 47 49 38 46 50 39Independent 29 27 30 31 29 30 30 23 30 32 30 28 28Republican 26 30 18 26 23 25 21 29 18 30 24 21 32

Democrat 55 50 66 60 57 59 63 55 64 46 62 60 49Independent 9 9 8 6 9 7 8 6 7 13 8 8 8Republican 35 40 24 34 34 34 28 38 26 41 30 31 41

Right direction 10 7 16 10 9 10 14 7 14 7 14 9 9Wrong track 82 86 74 79 79 79 76 85 76 88 75 82 85(Don't know) 7 6 9 9 10 9 9 7 9 4 9 8 6(Refuse) 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 0

Approve 56 53 62 59 56 58 60 56 59 51 62 58 51Disapprove 37 41 29 31 39 34 31 40 31 42 31 35 42(Don't know) 6 4 8 9 4 7 7 4 9 5 6 5 5(Refuse) 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2

Brown 46 45 46 53 50 51 48 45 51 44 45 49 45Whitman 42 45 39 35 35 35 38 44 35 45 41 40 43(Other) 2 1 3 3 1 2 3 1 2 2 4 3 1(Undecided) 9 8 10 9 10 9 9 9 11 7 8 6 9(Refused) 2 1 1 2 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 1 2

Brown 51 49 52 59 53 57 54 50 56 47 51 55 48Whitman 44 47 41 37 40 38 40 47 37 47 44 41 47(Other) 2 1 3 3 1 2 3 1 2 2 4 3 1(Undecided) 3 2 3 1 4 2 3 2 4 2 1 1 4(Refused) 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0

Boxer 53 50 58 59 49 55 57 54 58 47 55 56 49Fiorina 38 42 29 34 36 35 31 37 29 48 34 35 43(Other) 1 0 1 0 3 1 1 0 1 0 2 1 1(Undecided) 7 5 11 5 9 7 10 7 11 3 8 6 6(Refused) 2 2 0 2 3 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 2

Boxer 57 53 64 64 54 60 62 57 64 48 61 61 52Fiorina 40 45 30 35 40 37 32 40 30 49 35 36 45Other 1 0 1 0 3 1 1 0 1 0 2 1 1Undecided 2 1 5 2 2 2 4 2 5 1 2 2 2Refused 0 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1

Support Obama 59 56 67 60 52 57 63 58 63 54 63 62 53Oppose Obama 30 32 25 30 30 30 27 30 25 34 30 27 36(Don't know) 9 9 7 7 15 10 8 9 11 9 5 9 8(Refused) 3 4 1 3 3 3 2 3 2 4 2 3 3

Page 17

Party Registration

2-3-2 Party ID

3-1-3 Party ID

10 Direction of the state

Simulated Senate Vote

52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?

12 Obama job approval

19 Governor Vote

Simulated Governor Vote

23 Senate Vote

Total MARITAL MARITAL/GENDER 2008

Page 18: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Voted in person

Voted by mail A B Cell Landline Base Latino

Vote SummaryTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)

Democrat 45 49 41 44 46 43 46 42 58Republican 32 31 42 31 32 21 33 34 21DTS 19 16 14 20 19 31 18 20 18Other 4 4 3 4 3 6 3 4 2

Democrat 44 47 39 45 44 47 44 41 55Independent 29 28 26 27 30 34 28 29 27Republican 26 23 33 26 25 18 27 29 15

Democrat 55 57 48 55 55 66 54 52 67Independent 9 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 8Republican 35 34 43 35 35 25 36 38 22

Right direction 10 8 6 9 10 14 9 7 18Wrong track 82 85 87 83 81 75 83 85 70(Don't know) 7 5 6 7 8 11 7 6 11(Refuse) 1 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 1

Approve 56 57 48 55 57 65 55 53 66Disapprove 37 36 46 39 35 30 38 40 27(Don't know) 6 5 4 5 7 4 6 6 6(Refuse) 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Brown 46 52 44 43 48 50 45 45 49Whitman 42 38 47 44 39 41 42 45 32(Other) 2 3 0 1 3 4 2 2 1(Undecided) 9 6 7 10 8 4 9 7 16(Refused) 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2

Brown 51 55 47 48 53 53 50 47 62Whitman 44 40 50 47 41 41 45 47 34(Other) 2 3 0 1 3 4 2 2 1(Undecided) 3 2 2 3 2 1 3 2 3(Refused) 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0

Boxer 53 55 45 52 53 60 52 51 60Fiorina 38 37 49 38 38 32 39 42 23(Other) 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 1 1(Undecided) 7 6 4 8 6 5 7 5 15(Refused) 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 1

Boxer 57 59 47 56 58 64 56 53 70Fiorina 40 38 51 40 39 32 41 44 25Other 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 1 1Undecided 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 4Refused 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1

Support Obama 59 58 51 57 61 72 57 55 70Oppose Obama 30 30 38 32 27 20 31 32 21(Don't know) 9 8 8 9 8 7 9 9 9(Refused) 3 3 4 2 4 2 3 3 0

Page 18

3-1-3 Party ID

10 Direction of the state

PHONE SAMPLE

Simulated Senate Vote

52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?

12 Obama job approval

19 Governor Vote

Simulated Governor Vote

23 Senate Vote

Party Registration

2-3-2 Party ID

Total 2006 SPLIT

Page 19: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LIKELY

Likely Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS

Reg Rep Not ID Rep

Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Mod erate

Conser vative

Vote DifferenceTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)PTYREG Dem-Rep 14 8 77 -1 -77 100 -100 0 -100 100 69 15 -402-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 15 100 0 -100 75 -62 18 17 -16 73 22 -373-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 15 100 8 -100 82 -73 27 -18 18 89 26 -50DIRECT Right-Wrong -72 -78 -65 -76 -81 -64 -84 -70 -84 -57 -62 -75 -79BO JOB App-Disapp 19 13 73 8 -58 62 -48 29 -16 18 71 29 -4319 GOV Brown-Whitman 4 5 51 -9 -60 47 -55 1 -40 17 60 8 -50SIM GOV Brown-Whitman 6 7 60 -8 -67 54 -60 2 -42 20 65 10 -5123 SEN Boxer-Fiorina 15 8 67 4 -63 62 -58 25 -30 33 72 23 -48SIM SEN Boxer-Fiorina 17 9 74 5 -67 68 -60 25 -29 39 77 25 -49SEN TYPE Supp-Opp 29 22 81 17 -47 72 -39 42 -11 33 80 39 -35

Key GroupsTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Reg Rep Not ID Rep 10 12 4 28 0 0 33 0 100 0 3 11 14Reg Dem Not ID Dem 10 8 0 26 6 21 0 0 0 100 8 11 8

Q7 Chance of voting in 2010Total answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Almost certain 81 96 79 83 85 80 88 72 88 76 82 78 86Probably 9 4 10 8 8 10 6 15 4 12 10 12 550-50 5 0 7 4 4 6 4 7 4 7 5 6 5Less than 50-50 1 0 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 1Will not vote 2 0 1 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 1 2 2(Don't know) 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Q8 Enthusiasm about 2010 electionTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)10 31 43 27 27 41 27 42 21 41 22 27 23 459 7 8 7 8 5 7 6 7 9 7 8 7 68 14 17 16 12 15 15 15 14 15 12 15 15 147 13 12 13 11 14 15 10 14 5 16 15 15 96 6 7 8 7 4 7 4 8 4 7 7 9 35 13 13 14 15 9 14 10 18 11 17 13 15 104 4 0 4 4 3 5 3 4 2 7 4 4 43 3 0 2 7 2 2 3 7 6 4 4 3 32 2 0 1 3 2 1 3 3 5 2 3 2 11 2 0 2 2 0 2 0 1 0 2 2 2 10 4 0 4 4 4 4 3 4 2 4 3 4 4(Don't know/refused) 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 010 31 43 27 27 41 27 42 21 41 22 27 23 458-10 52 68 50 47 61 49 64 42 65 40 49 45 656-10 71 87 72 64 79 71 78 63 74 63 70 69 770-5 28 13 28 35 20 28 22 37 26 36 29 31 23(Don't know/refused) 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0Mean 7.1 8.3 7.1 6.8 7.7 7.1 7.8 6.6 7.6 6.6 7.0 6.8 7.8

Q9 Early vote likelihoodTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Almost certain 41 47 39 38 49 40 46 39 42 46 37 42 46Probably 7 6 9 6 6 9 6 6 7 9 6 9 650-50 10 8 12 12 7 11 10 10 15 8 12 10 9Less than 50-50 6 6 7 6 5 7 5 6 3 5 7 6 5Will not vote 33 32 33 36 30 31 32 37 32 29 37 32 32(Don't know) 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 2(Refused) 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1

Page 19

IDEOLOGYTotal PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS

Page 20: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated Right Wrong

Vote DifferenceTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)PTYREG Dem-Rep 14 74 61 -56 -74 7 100 100 -100 -100 5 39 82-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 82 78 -71 -76 10 88 65 -47 -76 21 37 143-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 100 100 -100 -100 13 96 72 -55 -89 31 52 14DIRECT Right-Wrong -72 -63 -64 -73 -90 -76 -63 -64 -81 -89 -71 100 -100BO JOB App-Disapp 19 76 67 -25 -78 9 75 52 -11 -74 28 70 919 GOV Brown-Whitman 4 62 38 -39 -72 -14 70 31 -34 -70 0 29 -1SIM GOV Brown-Whitman 6 69 48 -48 -78 -13 74 40 -39 -75 3 36 023 SEN Boxer-Fiorina 15 76 61 -40 -76 -2 79 49 -34 -76 23 59 6SIM SEN Boxer-Fiorina 17 81 70 -47 -80 1 84 56 -36 -79 25 62 8SEN TYPE Supp-Opp 29 86 73 -8 -69 19 86 59 -3 -65 39 69 20

Key GroupsTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Reg Rep Not ID Rep 10 2 7 14 13 26 0 0 43 22 3 6 11Reg Dem Not ID Dem 10 6 9 12 6 22 11 29 0 0 3 13 8

Q7 Chance of voting in 2010Total answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Almost certain 81 82 77 82 90 74 85 77 87 90 73 67 84Probably 9 10 11 10 5 10 8 11 8 4 13 13 850-50 5 5 8 4 3 7 4 7 3 4 7 13 4Less than 50-50 1 1 2 3 0 1 1 2 2 0 2 1 1Will not vote 2 1 1 1 2 6 1 2 0 2 3 6 2(Don't know) 1 0 1 1 0 2 0 1 1 0 2 1 0(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Q8 Enthusiasm about 2010 electionTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)10 31 26 24 30 49 23 29 25 32 51 22 29 319 7 8 7 6 6 6 9 5 8 5 6 9 78 14 15 17 14 13 11 13 16 17 14 13 13 157 13 15 14 14 11 9 17 15 10 9 13 19 126 6 7 8 8 2 7 6 8 7 3 8 4 65 13 13 14 13 7 22 13 14 14 8 17 11 134 4 4 5 3 3 4 3 7 2 3 5 3 43 3 4 2 3 4 5 1 3 1 3 6 5 32 2 2 1 4 1 4 2 1 5 1 3 2 21 2 2 2 0 1 2 3 2 0 0 2 1 20 4 3 4 4 3 5 3 3 3 3 5 3 4(Don't know/refused) 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 010 31 26 24 30 49 23 29 25 32 51 22 29 318-10 52 49 48 50 68 40 52 46 57 70 42 52 536-10 71 71 71 71 81 56 74 69 74 82 62 74 710-5 28 29 29 28 18 42 25 31 25 18 37 25 28(Don't know/refused) 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0Mean 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.1 8.0 6.4 7.2 6.9 7.4 8.1 6.5 7.3 7.2

Q9 Early vote likelihoodTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Almost certain 41 36 43 48 46 35 37 44 45 47 37 39 43Probably 7 6 9 7 4 10 8 10 7 5 6 13 650-50 10 12 12 7 8 13 10 10 12 8 12 16 9Less than 50-50 6 7 6 8 4 6 8 6 6 4 6 3 6Will not vote 33 38 29 29 35 32 36 28 28 35 36 28 34(Don't know) 1 1 1 0 2 4 1 2 0 1 2 1 1(Refused) 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

Page 20

Total PTY/IDEO PTYREG/IDEO STATE DIR

Page 21: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

10 8-10 6-10 0-5 0-7 BrownWhit man Und Ref

Vote DifferenceTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)PTYREG Dem-Rep 14 -3 4 11 21 24 56 -31 162-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 5 13 16 25 24 59 -25 183-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 -1 11 17 30 31 72 -34 20DIRECT Right-Wrong -72 -75 -74 -72 -73 -71 -66 -81 -67BO JOB App-Disapp 19 -1 11 17 24 28 64 -31 2719 GOV Brown-Whitman 4 -11 -3 3 5 11 100 -100 0SIM GOV Brown-Whitman 6 -10 -1 5 9 13 100 -100 2023 SEN Boxer-Fiorina 15 -10 1 11 25 29 71 -44 13SIM SEN Boxer-Fiorina 17 -9 3 12 30 32 73 -44 25SEN TYPE Supp-Opp 29 10 19 26 35 39 75 -22 34

Key GroupsTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Reg Rep Not ID Rep 10 14 13 11 9 7 4 15 14Reg Dem Not ID Dem 10 7 8 9 12 12 11 8 12

Q7 Chance of voting in 2010Total answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Almost certain 81 97 93 87 67 69 84 83 66Probably 9 1 4 8 12 15 8 10 1350-50 5 1 2 4 11 9 5 4 10Less than 50-50 1 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 3Will not vote 2 0 1 0 6 3 1 1 4(Don't know) 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 4(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Q8 Enthusiasm about 2010 electionTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)10 31 100 59 43 0 0 28 38 179 7 0 13 9 0 0 7 7 28 14 0 28 20 0 0 16 14 147 13 0 0 18 0 27 15 11 126 6 0 0 9 0 13 8 5 65 13 0 0 0 47 28 12 12 224 4 0 0 0 15 9 5 3 73 3 0 0 0 12 7 2 3 52 2 0 0 0 7 4 1 2 21 2 0 0 0 5 3 2 1 20 4 0 0 0 13 8 3 2 9(Don't know/refused) 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 210 31 100 59 43 0 0 28 38 178-10 52 100 100 73 0 0 51 59 336-10 71 100 100 100 0 41 74 76 510-5 28 0 0 0 100 59 25 24 46(Don't know/refused) 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2Mean 7.1 10.0 9.3 8.6 3.5 4.8 7.2 7.5 5.9

Q9 Early vote likelihoodTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Almost certain 41 52 48 45 33 34 42 43 36Probably 7 6 7 8 5 8 9 6 850-50 10 8 9 10 13 12 10 10 15Less than 50-50 6 4 4 5 10 8 7 5 8Will not vote 33 30 30 31 38 36 32 35 26(Don't know) 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 5(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1

Page 21

Total ENTHUSIASM GOV VOTE

Page 22: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Vote DifferenceTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)PTYREG Dem-Rep 14 65 55 35 34 21 5 -10 -51 62 35 14 -40 222-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 68 55 33 55 29 3 -4 -43 64 42 17 -33 263-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 83 62 58 45 38 9 -4 -62 77 52 25 -46 35DIRECT Right-Wrong -72 -73 -61 -58 -42 -62 -57 -73 -92 -70 -51 -60 -87 -57BO JOB App-Disapp 19 70 57 61 44 45 18 -5 -59 67 54 33 -44 4119 GOV Brown-Whitman 4 100 100 100 100 -49 -65 -78 -91 100 100 -56 -88 1SIM GOV Brown-Whitman 6 100 100 100 100 -31 -55 -76 -94 100 100 -42 -89 1023 SEN Boxer-Fiorina 15 81 68 57 39 38 -4 -18 -73 77 49 20 -58 30SIM SEN Boxer-Fiorina 17 83 70 58 39 47 2 -17 -74 79 50 28 -58 36SEN TYPE Supp-Opp 29 81 76 65 45 41 30 2 -46 80 57 36 -33 44

Key GroupsTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Reg Rep Not ID Rep 10 3 4 8 7 14 10 15 17 3 8 12 17 11Reg Dem Not ID Dem 10 9 14 18 6 11 9 11 7 10 13 10 8 11

Q7 Chance of voting in 2010Total answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Almost certain 81 94 75 66 69 69 63 71 90 89 67 66 85 67Probably 9 2 13 16 19 15 17 14 5 5 17 16 8 1650-50 5 3 6 11 10 11 9 9 1 4 11 10 3 10Less than 50-50 1 0 3 3 1 0 5 3 1 1 2 2 1 2Will not vote 2 1 2 2 0 3 4 2 2 1 1 3 2 2(Don't know) 1 0 0 2 1 2 2 2 0 0 1 2 1 2(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Q8 Enthusiasm about 2010 electionTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)10 31 35 14 17 27 15 14 22 50 29 21 15 42 179 7 8 10 5 1 5 10 7 5 9 3 7 6 68 14 14 21 13 17 19 14 10 13 16 15 17 12 167 13 14 17 16 18 16 11 17 7 15 17 14 10 156 6 6 10 9 12 5 6 8 4 7 10 5 5 75 13 9 17 24 5 17 21 17 10 11 16 19 12 184 4 3 3 9 10 6 4 3 3 3 10 5 3 73 3 3 3 1 1 3 9 6 2 3 1 6 3 42 2 1 2 2 0 3 7 2 2 1 1 5 2 41 2 2 1 2 3 1 1 4 0 2 3 1 1 20 4 3 2 2 4 6 2 4 5 3 3 4 5 4(Don't know/refused) 1 1 0 0 2 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 110 31 35 14 17 27 15 14 22 50 29 21 15 42 178-10 52 57 45 35 44 39 38 39 68 54 39 38 60 396-10 71 78 71 60 74 60 55 64 78 76 66 58 74 610-5 28 21 28 40 24 38 44 36 22 23 33 41 26 38(Don't know/refused) 1 1 0 0 2 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1Mean 7.1 7.5 6.9 6.5 6.9 6.3 6.2 6.5 7.9 7.4 6.7 6.3 7.5 6.4

Q9 Early vote likelihoodTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Almost certain 41 46 39 33 37 35 28 39 48 44 35 32 45 33Probably 7 6 12 12 10 10 7 3 6 8 11 9 5 950-50 10 7 10 13 20 16 16 12 7 8 16 16 9 16Less than 50-50 6 6 5 16 5 3 4 11 5 5 11 4 7 6Will not vote 33 34 34 27 24 34 36 32 33 34 26 35 33 32(Don't know) 1 1 0 0 1 1 8 1 0 1 1 4 1 3(Refused) 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1

Page 22

Total BROWN VCS

Page 23: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Vote DifferenceTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)PTYREG Dem-Rep 14 -52 -22 0 27 27 24 43 60 -45 13 25 55 212-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 -45 -10 -7 30 42 25 44 62 -37 11 34 57 263-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 -64 -9 2 40 40 42 50 76 -51 21 41 68 33DIRECT Right-Wrong -72 -91 -73 -57 -64 -48 -62 -62 -75 -87 -60 -55 -71 -57BO JOB App-Disapp 19 -62 -7 11 44 40 48 48 65 -49 27 44 60 3819 GOV Brown-Whitman 4 -100 -100 -100 -100 49 73 75 91 -100 -100 61 86 1SIM GOV Brown-Whitman 6 -100 -100 -100 -100 68 73 79 91 -100 -100 70 87 823 SEN Boxer-Fiorina 15 -77 -24 -5 49 24 43 51 74 -65 22 33 67 29SIM SEN Boxer-Fiorina 17 -77 -25 -4 52 38 42 55 76 -65 24 39 70 34SEN TYPE Supp-Opp 29 -49 -7 35 31 46 54 62 75 -39 33 50 71 43

Key GroupsTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Reg Rep Not ID Rep 10 17 16 5 11 11 11 9 4 17 8 11 6 10Reg Dem Not ID Dem 10 7 10 10 10 10 13 13 9 7 10 12 11 11

Q7 Chance of voting in 2010Total answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Almost certain 81 92 73 66 70 68 68 70 91 88 68 68 85 68Probably 9 5 15 18 18 15 14 15 2 8 18 15 6 1650-50 5 1 7 9 9 10 10 8 3 3 9 10 5 10Less than 50-50 1 0 3 5 0 1 4 2 1 1 3 2 1 2Will not vote 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 1 2 2 2 2(Don't know) 1 0 1 0 0 3 2 1 0 0 0 3 1 2(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Q8 Enthusiasm about 2010 electionTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)10 31 53 24 18 11 24 15 14 33 46 14 19 27 189 7 6 8 9 8 2 7 8 8 6 8 5 8 68 14 12 11 17 24 15 13 17 14 12 21 14 15 167 13 7 20 11 19 15 17 14 13 10 15 16 13 156 6 4 8 4 5 9 7 10 6 5 5 8 7 75 13 8 17 17 13 15 25 18 10 10 15 20 12 184 4 3 2 0 8 8 8 5 3 3 4 8 4 63 3 1 3 15 3 3 2 3 4 2 9 3 4 52 2 2 1 7 4 1 1 4 1 1 6 1 2 31 2 0 4 0 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 20 4 3 0 2 3 6 3 4 5 2 2 4 5 4(Don't know/refused) 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 110 31 53 24 18 11 24 15 14 33 46 14 19 27 188-10 52 70 43 44 43 41 35 39 55 64 44 38 50 406-10 71 82 72 59 67 65 59 63 74 80 63 62 71 620-5 28 18 28 41 33 34 41 36 25 20 37 37 28 37(Don't know/refused) 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1Mean 7.1 8.1 7.1 6.4 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.4 7.3 7.9 6.5 6.5 7.0 6.5

Q9 Early vote likelihoodTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Almost certain 41 48 39 31 36 33 32 39 45 46 33 33 43 33Probably 7 6 3 6 11 7 11 12 6 5 8 9 8 950-50 10 6 13 15 14 20 15 11 7 8 15 18 9 16Less than 50-50 6 5 10 2 4 5 13 6 6 6 3 9 6 7Will not vote 33 34 34 42 35 31 26 31 34 34 39 28 33 32(Don't know) 1 0 1 5 0 3 3 1 1 0 2 3 1 3(Refused) 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1

Page 23

Total WHITMAN VCS

Page 24: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Brown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

better

Govt back

groundBiz back ground

Brown better

Whit man

better Boxer Fiorina DK/ Ref

Vote DifferenceTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)PTYREG Dem-Rep 14 52 -35 55 -24 59 -24 43 -19 56 -25 55 -45 182-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 56 -26 61 -20 60 -17 45 -9 58 -19 59 -38 233-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 67 -38 70 -29 73 -25 54 -16 69 -27 74 -54 27DIRECT Right-Wrong -72 -67 -83 -62 -82 -63 -81 -70 -75 -62 -84 -62 -88 -63BO JOB App-Disapp 19 64 -40 63 -29 68 -25 52 -15 64 -26 67 -48 2519 GOV Brown-Whitman 4 73 -82 79 -72 86 -66 53 -48 85 -69 53 -61 -6SIM GOV Brown-Whitman 6 74 -82 80 -71 88 -65 55 -47 86 -69 57 -65 823 SEN Boxer-Fiorina 15 67 -49 65 -37 70 -34 49 -22 73 -37 100 -100 0SIM SEN Boxer-Fiorina 17 69 -49 67 -37 72 -33 51 -21 74 -37 100 -100 27SEN TYPE Supp-Opp 29 72 -29 72 -16 79 -17 61 -4 74 -17 76 -37 33

Key GroupsTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Reg Rep Not ID Rep 10 5 16 6 13 5 14 6 14 5 14 5 16 16Reg Dem Not ID Dem 10 10 7 8 8 10 8 11 7 10 8 11 6 17

Q7 Chance of voting in 2010Total answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Almost certain 81 84 86 82 85 85 82 82 81 87 82 79 88 64Probably 9 7 8 8 9 6 10 9 9 5 10 10 7 1350-50 5 5 4 6 4 7 5 5 6 6 4 6 3 11Less than 50-50 1 2 0 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1Will not vote 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 5(Don't know) 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 5(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Q8 Enthusiasm about 2010 electionTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)10 31 29 43 32 39 32 36 29 34 33 36 24 42 189 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 8 6 7 7 58 14 15 15 16 13 16 14 14 16 14 16 16 14 107 13 13 9 13 13 12 12 12 13 14 11 16 10 106 6 8 5 8 5 7 5 8 5 7 6 7 5 115 13 14 11 10 11 13 11 13 13 11 13 15 10 224 4 5 2 4 3 5 4 5 3 5 4 5 3 43 3 2 2 1 2 1 3 3 4 2 2 3 3 42 2 2 1 2 2 1 3 3 1 1 3 2 1 61 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 0 30 4 3 2 3 2 3 3 5 3 4 2 2 5 6(Don't know/refused) 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 110 31 29 43 32 39 32 36 29 34 33 36 24 42 188-10 52 51 66 56 60 56 57 50 56 54 57 47 63 336-10 71 72 80 76 78 75 74 70 74 75 74 70 78 540-5 28 28 19 23 22 25 26 29 25 24 26 29 22 45(Don't know/refused) 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1Mean 7.1 7.2 7.9 7.4 7.7 7.4 7.4 7.0 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.0 7.7 6.0

Q9 Early vote likelihoodTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Almost certain 41 41 46 42 43 43 41 42 41 45 42 39 46 35Probably 7 9 6 9 6 8 6 7 7 8 7 8 6 850-50 10 10 10 13 9 11 10 8 13 10 9 12 8 14Less than 50-50 6 6 5 5 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 8 5 4Will not vote 33 33 31 30 35 30 35 34 31 29 34 33 32 37(Don't know) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 3(Refused) 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0

Page 24

ENERGY BCKGRND ECONOMY SEN VOTETotal UNDERSTAND CLEAR PLAN

Page 25: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Vote DifferenceTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)PTYREG Dem-Rep 14 67 49 52 29 36 -13 -13 -55 61 41 13 -47 302-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 71 51 48 40 30 6 -9 -48 65 44 19 -40 343-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 86 61 67 55 34 7 -12 -67 79 61 21 -56 45DIRECT Right-Wrong -72 -75 -55 -43 -49 -57 -71 -69 -94 -69 -46 -64 -89 -53BO JOB App-Disapp 19 79 54 69 45 44 22 1 -69 71 58 34 -55 4819 GOV Brown-Whitman 4 80 34 28 10 -2 -8 -27 -73 66 20 -5 -64 10SIM GOV Brown-Whitman 6 82 42 30 19 15 -13 -28 -75 70 25 2 -66 1523 SEN Boxer-Fiorina 15 100 100 100 100 -28 -72 -70 -94 100 100 -49 -90 38SIM SEN Boxer-Fiorina 17 100 100 100 100 -3 -68 -63 -94 100 100 -33 -88 45SEN TYPE Supp-Opp 29 85 69 65 64 47 32 6 -55 80 65 40 -43 54

Key GroupsTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Reg Rep Not ID Rep 10 4 8 3 10 10 10 13 18 5 7 10 17 8Reg Dem Not ID Dem 10 8 13 14 12 19 4 11 7 10 13 12 7 13

Q7 Chance of voting in 2010Total answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Almost certain 81 89 78 63 66 64 73 76 91 86 64 68 88 66Probably 9 5 11 22 14 20 12 12 4 7 18 16 5 1850-50 5 3 7 10 14 10 11 7 2 4 12 10 3 11Less than 50-50 1 1 1 3 6 0 1 1 1 1 4 1 1 3Will not vote 2 2 3 0 0 1 2 4 2 2 0 2 2 1(Don't know) 1 0 0 2 0 4 0 1 1 0 1 2 1 1(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Q8 Enthusiasm about 2010 electionTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)10 31 35 11 16 17 17 17 28 48 28 16 17 44 169 7 8 7 5 6 4 11 4 7 7 6 7 6 68 14 15 18 16 14 13 10 15 13 16 15 12 14 147 13 12 22 20 17 19 10 9 8 15 18 15 8 176 6 6 7 9 9 11 12 10 2 6 9 12 4 105 13 12 18 12 22 17 20 16 8 14 17 18 10 184 4 3 9 6 4 4 5 4 3 5 5 4 3 53 3 4 1 7 2 3 6 2 3 3 5 5 3 52 2 1 3 1 4 4 5 4 1 2 2 5 2 31 2 1 1 5 3 1 0 4 0 1 4 1 1 30 4 3 2 2 0 5 2 4 6 3 1 4 6 2(Don't know/refused) 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 110 31 35 11 16 17 17 17 28 48 28 16 17 44 168-10 52 58 35 37 37 34 38 47 68 51 37 36 64 376-10 71 76 64 66 63 65 61 65 78 72 64 63 76 640-5 28 23 35 34 36 34 39 34 22 27 35 36 24 36(Don't know/refused) 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1Mean 7.1 7.5 6.5 6.4 6.6 6.4 6.5 6.7 7.8 7.2 6.5 6.4 7.6 6.5

Q9 Early vote likelihoodTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Almost certain 41 43 35 41 27 26 47 43 47 41 34 36 46 35Probably 7 7 10 7 9 11 14 6 5 8 8 13 5 1050-50 10 7 14 16 21 15 15 8 7 9 18 15 7 17Less than 50-50 6 8 7 6 10 7 4 4 4 8 7 6 4 7Will not vote 33 34 33 29 31 36 16 35 35 34 30 27 35 29(Don't know) 1 1 1 1 1 3 4 3 2 1 1 3 2 2(Refused) 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1

Page 25

Total BOXER VCS

Page 26: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Vote DifferenceTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)PTYREG Dem-Rep 14 -58 -25 -12 23 47 45 64 -53 3 34 58 282-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 -51 -17 4 33 42 49 68 -46 9 37 62 323-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 -71 -27 3 41 57 60 83 -64 11 49 76 41DIRECT Right-Wrong -72 -94 -74 -76 -56 -46 -55 -75 -91 -69 -51 -69 -55BO JOB App-Disapp 19 -72 -8 29 38 57 52 76 -62 33 46 68 4419 GOV Brown-Whitman 4 -76 -41 0 5 16 30 78 -71 -3 10 62 7SIM GOV Brown-Whitman 6 -79 -46 -6 18 19 39 79 -74 -8 18 66 1323 SEN Boxer-Fiorina 15 -100 -100 -100 62 82 86 96 -100 -100 71 92 37SIM SEN Boxer-Fiorina 17 -100 -100 -100 69 84 94 96 -100 -100 76 95 42SEN TYPE Supp-Opp 29 -58 0 32 52 56 65 83 -49 35 54 77 50

Key GroupsTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Reg Rep Not ID Rep 10 18 13 6 12 4 10 4 17 6 9 6 8Reg Dem Not ID Dem 10 6 9 1 13 16 14 8 6 6 14 10 13

Q7 Chance of voting in 2010Total answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Almost certain 81 93 82 76 65 65 74 87 92 70 65 83 66Probably 9 4 11 11 14 21 12 5 5 17 17 7 1750-50 5 1 5 8 13 11 8 3 2 9 12 4 11Less than 50-50 1 0 0 2 4 2 1 1 0 1 3 1 3Will not vote 2 1 0 2 1 0 5 3 1 2 1 4 1(Don't know) 1 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 2(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Q8 Enthusiasm about 2010 electionTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)10 31 50 29 16 17 17 11 35 47 17 17 27 179 7 7 6 12 5 5 7 7 7 8 5 7 68 14 13 17 13 14 14 16 15 14 13 14 15 147 13 8 13 9 16 17 20 12 9 16 16 14 166 6 2 10 11 9 12 7 6 3 12 10 6 115 13 8 13 18 22 15 18 12 8 16 19 14 184 4 2 4 7 4 6 9 3 3 7 5 5 53 3 3 0 9 3 6 2 4 2 6 4 3 52 2 1 1 4 5 1 4 1 1 4 3 2 31 2 1 1 0 2 4 3 1 1 0 3 2 30 4 5 6 2 3 2 2 4 5 2 3 3 3(Don't know/refused) 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 110 31 50 29 16 17 17 11 35 47 17 17 27 178-10 52 70 52 40 36 36 34 57 68 38 36 50 366-10 71 81 75 60 60 65 61 74 80 65 63 70 630-5 28 19 25 39 38 35 38 25 20 34 37 29 36(Don't know/refused) 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1Mean 7.1 8.0 7.1 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.3 7.4 7.9 6.6 6.4 7.0 6.5

Q9 Early vote likelihoodTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Almost certain 41 48 43 48 30 39 37 43 47 39 34 41 35Probably 7 4 6 15 7 10 9 7 5 17 8 7 1050-50 10 7 10 14 20 15 13 6 8 11 18 9 17Less than 50-50 6 4 4 4 6 6 7 8 4 8 6 7 7Will not vote 33 34 32 15 34 29 33 35 34 20 31 35 29(Don't know) 1 1 3 5 3 0 1 1 1 5 2 1 2(Refused) 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1

Page 26

Total FIORINA VCS

Page 27: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Support Obama

Oppose Obama

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better Favor Oppose

Impor tant

Not Impor tant

Vote DifferenceTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)PTYREG Dem-Rep 14 50 -51 61 -39 58 -47 60 -43 -4 29 34 -482-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 58 -47 68 -35 65 -42 63 -35 -1 35 37 -383-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 69 -63 78 -48 78 -60 76 -52 -2 41 46 -56DIRECT Right-Wrong -72 -63 -90 -62 -86 -66 -89 -65 -89 -73 -73 -66 -91BO JOB App-Disapp 19 76 -83 69 -47 70 -55 70 -51 -6 38 44 -5819 GOV Brown-Whitman 4 42 -61 59 -54 60 -61 62 -61 -17 24 26 -62SIM GOV Brown-Whitman 6 48 -66 63 -57 63 -63 65 -63 -15 26 29 -6323 SEN Boxer-Fiorina 15 60 -64 88 -76 85 -86 85 -80 -11 40 41 -63SIM SEN Boxer-Fiorina 17 64 -65 89 -76 86 -87 86 -79 -10 42 43 -62SEN TYPE Supp-Opp 29 100 -100 82 -37 82 -48 81 -43 9 44 54 -48

Key GroupsTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Reg Rep Not ID Rep 10 6 16 5 15 6 15 5 16 12 9 7 19Reg Dem Not ID Dem 10 9 7 10 8 10 6 11 8 10 9 11 7

Q7 Chance of voting in 2010Total answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Almost certain 81 79 87 81 89 81 90 84 89 79 85 79 90Probably 9 11 7 9 7 10 6 7 7 10 8 11 450-50 5 6 3 6 3 6 3 6 3 6 4 7 2Less than 50-50 1 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 2 1 1 2Will not vote 2 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 3 2 2(Don't know) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Q8 Enthusiasm about 2010 electionTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)10 31 26 41 29 41 29 46 29 45 37 27 25 479 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 7 8 6 8 7 68 14 15 13 14 14 14 15 13 15 15 15 15 137 13 14 13 14 12 15 9 15 8 12 15 14 126 6 8 2 8 5 8 4 7 5 4 8 8 25 13 14 11 13 8 14 8 15 8 12 13 15 74 4 5 2 6 2 5 3 6 2 4 3 5 33 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 4 22 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 3 2 11 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 00 4 4 4 3 4 2 5 2 4 4 3 4 4(Don't know/refused) 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 110 31 26 41 29 41 29 46 29 45 37 27 25 478-10 52 48 62 51 63 50 67 50 68 58 50 47 676-10 71 71 77 73 80 73 79 72 80 75 73 68 810-5 28 29 23 27 20 26 21 27 20 24 27 31 18(Don't know/refused) 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1Mean 7.1 7.0 7.6 7.2 7.7 7.2 7.8 7.2 7.8 7.5 7.1 6.9 8.0

Q9 Early vote likelihoodTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Almost certain 41 38 46 41 46 41 47 42 44 42 40 41 42Probably 7 8 6 10 7 8 6 8 7 7 7 8 450-50 10 11 9 11 7 11 8 10 8 12 10 11 8Less than 50-50 6 7 5 7 4 7 5 9 4 5 8 7 5Will not vote 33 34 32 29 34 32 32 30 35 31 35 31 40(Don't know) 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1(Refused) 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1

Page 27

SHARE VALUES JOBS ECON PROP 23 GW IMPTTotal SENTYPE CHANGE

Page 28: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

White Black Latino Asian Men Women Men Women Men Women

Vote DifferenceTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)PTYREG Dem-Rep 14 4 43 35 19 9 18 0 8 29 402-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 9 62 38 19 13 23 4 14 29 463-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 11 65 46 24 15 26 4 17 37 52DIRECT Right-Wrong -72 -78 -57 -53 -61 -73 -71 -76 -80 -63 -45BO JOB App-Disapp 19 11 63 36 57 17 21 8 13 33 3919 GOV Brown-Whitman 4 1 -3 19 12 1 7 -1 3 14 22SIM GOV Brown-Whitman 6 1 -1 28 8 3 9 0 2 21 3323 SEN Boxer-Fiorina 15 7 25 38 39 7 22 -2 14 34 42SIM SEN Boxer-Fiorina 17 8 25 46 37 10 24 0 15 39 51SEN TYPE Supp-Opp 29 18 61 50 68 25 32 16 21 41 57

Key GroupsTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Reg Rep Not ID Rep 10 10 8 11 5 11 10 10 10 12 11Reg Dem Not ID Dem 10 8 5 13 9 9 10 8 8 12 14

Q7 Chance of voting in 2010Total answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Almost certain 81 87 66 68 62 81 81 87 87 67 69Probably 9 8 23 9 18 9 9 9 8 10 950-50 5 3 11 12 9 5 6 2 3 11 13Less than 50-50 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 2 4 1Will not vote 2 1 0 5 7 2 2 2 0 4 5(Don't know) 1 0 0 3 1 1 1 0 0 3 2(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Q8 Enthusiasm about 2010 electionTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)10 31 34 22 23 14 32 30 35 32 25 219 7 7 11 7 7 8 6 8 6 7 78 14 12 16 21 21 15 14 11 12 25 177 13 14 2 12 12 13 13 15 14 10 156 6 6 5 9 12 7 6 5 6 14 65 13 13 13 13 23 11 15 11 14 10 164 4 4 9 2 6 4 5 3 5 2 23 3 4 8 3 3 3 4 4 4 2 42 2 2 2 1 3 1 3 2 3 1 21 2 1 2 2 0 1 2 1 2 1 40 4 3 8 5 0 4 3 3 3 3 6(Don't know/refused) 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 110 31 34 22 23 14 32 30 35 32 25 218-10 52 52 48 51 42 55 49 54 50 57 466-10 71 72 56 73 66 75 68 75 69 80 660-5 28 28 43 27 34 24 31 24 30 19 33(Don't know/refused) 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1Mean 7.1 7.3 6.3 7.0 6.7 7.3 7.0 7.4 7.1 7.3 6.7

Q9 Early vote likelihoodTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Almost certain 41 45 23 34 35 38 44 42 48 32 35Probably 7 7 8 8 14 5 9 5 8 7 950-50 10 9 9 16 10 11 10 9 9 12 19Less than 50-50 6 5 5 9 5 8 5 7 4 12 6Will not vote 33 33 54 31 30 36 30 36 30 33 30(Don't know) 1 1 1 2 5 2 1 1 0 3 2(Refused) 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0

Page 28

WHT GEN LAT GENTotal RACE GENDER

Page 29: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over

Vote DifferenceTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)PTYREG Dem-Rep 14 29 24 3 12 8 18 102-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 33 38 5 15 11 24 133-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 48 44 5 14 7 31 11DIRECT Right-Wrong -72 -51 -69 -82 -77 -76 -67 -77BO JOB App-Disapp 19 43 36 5 16 5 27 1219 GOV Brown-Whitman 4 4 17 -8 9 -1 4 5SIM GOV Brown-Whitman 6 8 21 -5 11 -2 7 623 SEN Boxer-Fiorina 15 45 18 6 12 -1 23 7SIM SEN Boxer-Fiorina 17 51 20 7 14 0 26 8SEN TYPE Supp-Opp 29 52 42 22 23 15 38 20

Key GroupsTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Reg Rep Not ID Rep 10 7 10 8 11 13 8 12Reg Dem Not ID Dem 10 13 6 8 10 9 9 10

Q7 Chance of voting in 2010Total answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Almost certain 81 52 80 85 91 90 72 90Probably 9 22 12 8 4 4 14 450-50 5 13 4 5 3 4 7 4Less than 50-50 1 4 1 2 1 0 2 1Will not vote 2 6 2 1 1 1 3 1(Don't know) 1 2 1 0 0 1 1 1(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Q8 Enthusiasm about 2010 electionTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)10 31 7 19 36 39 43 21 409 7 8 6 4 7 8 6 78 14 16 17 14 13 14 16 137 13 24 18 12 10 7 18 86 6 11 9 6 4 4 9 45 13 12 16 15 14 11 14 134 4 4 9 4 3 2 5 33 3 7 2 3 3 3 4 32 2 4 1 1 3 2 2 21 2 3 2 0 1 2 1 20 4 4 2 6 4 2 4 3(Don't know/refused) 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 110 31 7 19 36 39 43 21 408-10 52 31 42 55 58 65 43 616-10 71 67 68 72 71 76 69 730-5 28 33 31 28 28 22 31 26(Don't know/refused) 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1Mean 7.1 6.2 6.8 7.3 7.4 7.8 6.8 7.5

Q9 Early vote likelihoodTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Almost certain 41 29 35 32 45 60 32 51Probably 7 8 9 9 5 6 9 650-50 10 16 11 13 8 7 13 8Less than 50-50 6 7 7 5 6 5 6 6Will not vote 33 37 35 41 33 19 38 27(Don't know) 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1(Refused) 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1

Page 29

Total AGE

Page 30: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over 18-29 30-4950 and

over 18-4950 and

over

Vote DifferenceTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)PTYREG Dem-Rep 14 20 14 -8 5 0 6 3 37 33 34 35 342-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 19 34 -6 7 5 13 6 40 34 41 37 413-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 41 38 -6 8 -1 20 4 52 44 38 48 38DIRECT Right-Wrong -72 -53 -70 -91 -82 -80 -75 -81 -41 -67 -56 -53 -56BO JOB App-Disapp 19 36 34 -8 12 -2 17 6 41 23 46 33 4619 GOV Brown-Whitman 4 -10 13 -6 8 -5 -1 2 16 18 26 17 26SIM GOV Brown-Whitman 6 -10 16 -5 8 -7 1 2 26 28 31 27 3123 SEN Boxer-Fiorina 15 55 9 -6 8 -8 14 1 37 39 38 38 38SIM SEN Boxer-Fiorina 17 56 11 -5 9 -8 16 2 49 45 42 47 42SEN TYPE Supp-Opp 29 52 26 9 17 9 25 13 45 53 52 49 52

Key GroupsTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Reg Rep Not ID Rep 10 0 13 7 10 14 7 12 13 9 13 11 13Reg Dem Not ID Dem 10 11 3 7 10 8 6 9 16 12 11 14 11

Q7 Chance of voting in 2010Total answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Almost certain 81 52 85 88 94 92 78 93 56 72 81 63 81Probably 9 30 12 8 4 4 15 4 12 11 4 12 450-50 5 7 0 2 2 3 3 2 17 8 10 13 10Less than 50-50 1 4 1 1 1 0 2 0 4 1 2 3 2Will not vote 2 6 2 0 0 1 2 0 6 5 3 6 3(Don't know) 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 5 2 0 4 0(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Q8 Enthusiasm about 2010 electionTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)10 31 6 20 38 38 43 24 40 10 23 42 16 429 7 9 8 5 7 8 7 7 7 3 11 5 118 14 4 11 14 10 15 11 12 25 15 20 21 207 13 40 22 10 11 8 21 10 14 19 4 16 46 6 10 7 7 4 4 8 4 12 11 4 12 45 13 8 15 15 14 11 13 13 13 16 9 15 94 4 4 9 5 3 2 6 3 4 1 2 2 23 3 8 3 3 3 3 4 3 5 3 0 4 02 2 5 2 0 3 2 2 3 2 1 1 2 11 2 3 1 0 1 2 1 1 3 2 2 3 20 4 3 3 3 4 2 3 4 5 6 3 5 3(Don't know/refused) 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 2 0 210 31 6 20 38 38 43 24 40 10 23 42 16 428-10 52 20 38 57 55 65 42 59 42 41 73 42 736-10 71 70 67 74 70 77 71 73 68 72 81 69 810-5 28 30 33 26 29 23 29 26 32 28 17 31 17(Don't know/refused) 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 2 0 2Mean 7.1 6.1 6.7 7.6 7.3 7.7 6.9 7.5 6.4 6.8 8.1 6.5 8.1

Q9 Early vote likelihoodTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Almost certain 41 36 41 31 46 61 35 52 27 31 46 29 46Probably 7 3 7 10 6 6 7 6 13 6 3 10 350-50 10 11 9 16 7 6 12 6 20 12 13 16 13Less than 50-50 6 7 5 5 6 5 6 5 7 11 7 9 7Will not vote 33 44 36 38 34 20 39 28 31 35 29 33 29(Don't know) 1 0 2 0 0 2 1 1 2 4 1 3 1(Refused) 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1

Page 30

Total WHT AGE LAT AGE

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Young Women

Young Men

Older Women

Older Men

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Vote DifferenceTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)PTYREG Dem-Rep 14 23 13 15 5 27 8 10 19 15 142-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 29 19 18 8 26 14 14 24 19 193-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 37 24 15 6 27 18 16 27 21 21DIRECT Right-Wrong -72 -68 -67 -74 -80 -54 -75 -75 -80 -67 -77BO JOB App-Disapp 19 25 30 19 3 32 12 17 24 19 2019 GOV Brown-Whitman 4 6 1 8 2 3 -1 5 13 0 9SIM GOV Brown-Whitman 6 10 4 9 2 9 -1 7 15 3 1123 SEN Boxer-Fiorina 15 30 15 14 -2 24 7 14 20 13 17SIM SEN Boxer-Fiorina 17 34 18 14 1 28 11 15 21 17 18SEN TYPE Supp-Opp 29 42 35 24 15 31 26 26 36 28 31

Key GroupsTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Reg Rep Not ID Rep 10 8 8 11 13 9 12 8 10 11 9Reg Dem Not ID Dem 10 11 7 9 11 11 9 11 9 10 10

Q7 Chance of voting in 2010Total answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Almost certain 81 73 71 89 92 69 78 84 92 75 88Probably 9 14 14 5 4 10 11 11 4 11 850-50 5 7 7 4 3 11 6 4 2 8 3Less than 50-50 1 2 2 1 1 3 1 1 2 2 1Will not vote 2 3 4 1 1 5 3 0 0 4 0(Don't know) 1 1 1 1 0 2 1 1 0 1 0(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Q8 Enthusiasm about 2010 electionTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)10 31 20 22 38 43 33 28 28 35 30 319 7 5 8 7 8 5 8 7 6 7 78 14 13 19 15 11 14 12 17 15 13 167 13 19 16 7 11 11 15 11 14 14 126 6 8 9 4 5 5 8 6 7 7 65 13 18 10 12 13 15 13 12 14 14 134 4 6 5 3 2 5 3 6 2 4 53 3 4 4 3 2 3 3 5 3 3 42 2 3 1 3 2 2 3 2 1 2 21 2 2 1 2 1 3 2 1 1 2 10 4 2 6 4 2 5 5 2 3 5 2(Don't know/refused) 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 010 31 20 22 38 43 33 28 28 35 30 318-10 52 38 48 60 62 51 48 53 56 49 546-10 71 66 73 70 77 67 71 70 76 69 730-5 28 34 27 29 22 32 29 29 24 30 27(Don't know/refused) 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0Mean 7.1 6.7 6.9 7.3 7.8 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.5 7.0 7.3

Q9 Early vote likelihoodTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Almost certain 41 35 28 53 49 39 40 42 44 40 43Probably 7 12 5 6 5 8 8 6 7 8 750-50 10 13 14 8 7 14 11 9 8 12 9Less than 50-50 6 5 8 4 8 6 6 7 6 6 6Will not vote 33 35 42 26 29 30 33 34 35 32 34(Don't know) 1 1 3 2 1 2 2 1 0 2 1(Refused) 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1

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Total GENDER/AGE EDUCATION

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Non College College

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Vote DifferenceTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)PTYREG Dem-Rep 14 -3 -5 5 18 -5 11 42 14 11 6 17 212-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 1 0 10 24 0 16 43 25 15 11 22 263-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 -3 3 11 27 2 18 51 31 17 13 25 28DIRECT Right-Wrong -72 -78 -82 -74 -81 -81 -77 -46 -77 -71 -76 -64 -79BO JOB App-Disapp 19 9 -6 14 25 -1 19 44 12 15 19 22 2219 GOV Brown-Whitman 4 -19 -6 6 14 -10 10 20 14 -2 3 3 14SIM GOV Brown-Whitman 6 -19 -8 8 16 -11 11 31 19 0 5 5 1523 SEN Boxer-Fiorina 15 -5 -4 10 21 -4 15 41 31 5 8 20 25SIM SEN Boxer-Fiorina 17 0 -2 10 21 -2 15 49 37 9 9 24 26SEN TYPE Supp-Opp 29 -2 9 21 37 5 28 54 37 22 28 32 33

Key GroupsTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Reg Rep Not ID Rep 10 11 11 8 10 11 9 11 12 12 9 10 9Reg Dem Not ID Dem 10 7 7 10 8 7 9 15 7 9 10 10 10

Q7 Chance of voting in 2010Total answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Almost certain 81 79 85 87 94 83 90 64 81 76 87 74 89Probably 9 8 11 10 3 10 7 9 11 9 9 12 750-50 5 6 2 3 2 3 2 15 4 8 3 8 3Less than 50-50 1 3 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 2 1 2 1Will not vote 2 4 2 0 0 2 0 6 0 4 0 3 0(Don't know) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 1 1 1 0(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Q8 Enthusiasm about 2010 electionTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)10 31 35 35 29 36 35 32 22 25 29 34 31 289 7 4 8 8 7 6 7 8 4 8 8 6 68 14 8 8 16 12 8 14 21 21 14 17 12 167 13 13 18 11 15 16 13 12 16 15 11 12 136 6 2 8 6 5 6 5 8 15 7 7 6 65 13 15 12 11 15 13 13 14 13 13 10 15 154 4 7 2 7 2 4 5 2 3 4 4 4 63 3 2 3 6 3 3 5 4 1 3 4 3 42 2 4 2 2 1 3 2 1 2 1 1 4 21 2 3 1 1 1 2 1 3 0 1 1 3 10 4 4 4 2 2 4 2 5 2 5 3 5 2(Don't know/refused) 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 010 31 35 35 29 36 35 32 22 25 29 34 31 288-10 52 48 50 53 55 49 54 51 49 51 58 48 506-10 71 63 75 70 75 72 72 71 79 73 76 66 690-5 28 37 24 30 25 28 27 29 21 27 23 33 31(Don't know/refused) 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0Mean 7.1 6.9 7.3 7.1 7.5 7.2 7.3 6.9 7.3 7.1 7.5 6.9 7.1

Q9 Early vote likelihoodTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Almost certain 41 44 47 42 46 46 44 32 39 35 40 43 45Probably 7 6 6 6 8 6 7 9 4 6 5 10 850-50 10 9 9 11 7 9 9 18 6 12 9 12 8Less than 50-50 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 8 10 7 9 5 4Will not vote 33 34 31 35 33 32 34 29 38 37 35 27 34(Don't know) 1 2 1 0 0 1 0 2 3 2 1 2 0(Refused) 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1

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GENDER/EDUCTotal WHT EDUC LAT EDUC

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Vote DifferenceTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)PTYREG Dem-Rep 14 -5 4 -4 18 21 17 9 12 -3 13 -5 92-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 0 6 0 25 24 25 12 15 2 22 -2 123-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 -1 9 4 27 32 31 9 14 10 27 -6 13DIRECT Right-Wrong -72 -79 -74 -82 -80 -61 -74 -74 -80 -76 -73 -83 -80BO JOB App-Disapp 19 -8 19 5 20 27 28 10 14 2 27 -4 1419 GOV Brown-Whitman 4 -9 5 -11 14 1 7 -1 11 -13 9 -9 11SIM GOV Brown-Whitman 6 -8 6 -14 16 4 11 1 11 -16 13 -9 1123 SEN Boxer-Fiorina 15 -15 7 5 22 21 25 3 10 4 21 -10 10SIM SEN Boxer-Fiorina 17 -12 8 7 21 25 27 7 10 6 22 -8 9SEN TYPE Supp-Opp 29 1 26 10 30 37 40 17 23 9 36 3 23

Key GroupsTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Reg Rep Not ID Rep 10 12 9 11 9 9 7 12 11 7 7 13 10Reg Dem Not ID Dem 10 6 10 8 8 9 9 10 10 5 8 9 10

Q7 Chance of voting in 2010Total answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Almost certain 81 85 89 81 91 63 82 87 93 70 84 91 95Probably 9 9 9 11 6 16 12 5 3 18 12 5 350-50 5 2 2 4 2 11 3 5 3 4 2 3 2Less than 50-50 1 1 1 2 1 3 2 1 0 3 2 1 0Will not vote 2 4 0 1 0 6 0 1 0 5 0 0 0(Don't know) 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Q8 Enthusiasm about 2010 electionTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)10 31 32 36 37 28 21 22 40 40 24 24 42 389 7 8 8 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 88 14 9 13 7 16 14 18 11 15 7 13 8 157 13 20 12 13 13 20 15 6 10 30 16 8 116 6 6 5 6 6 9 8 4 5 10 6 4 55 13 12 11 13 15 12 17 16 10 8 17 17 104 4 3 4 4 6 4 7 3 2 2 8 4 23 3 3 5 2 5 4 4 2 4 3 5 3 42 2 2 2 4 2 3 0 2 3 4 0 2 31 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 10 4 4 2 4 2 5 3 4 2 4 2 5 3(Don't know/refused) 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 110 31 32 36 37 28 21 22 40 40 24 24 42 388-10 52 49 58 49 50 40 45 59 63 38 44 56 616-10 71 75 75 69 69 69 68 69 77 77 66 68 770-5 28 25 24 30 31 30 32 30 22 23 34 32 22(Don't know/refused) 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1Mean 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.1 7.1 6.6 6.9 7.4 7.7 6.9 6.9 7.3 7.6

Q9 Early vote likelihoodTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Almost certain 41 41 42 51 46 30 34 50 52 39 33 52 53Probably 7 5 5 8 9 10 7 6 6 8 7 6 650-50 10 9 9 8 9 17 9 7 8 14 11 5 7Less than 50-50 6 4 9 6 2 6 7 6 6 4 7 6 5Will not vote 33 39 34 26 34 34 42 28 27 34 43 30 27(Don't know) 1 2 0 1 0 2 1 2 1 1 0 1 1(Refused) 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1

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Total WHT GEN/EDUC AGE/EDUC WHT AGE/EDUC

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

MemberHhold

memberNo

memberTotal Union Member

Hhold member

No member

Total Union Member

No member

Total Union

Vote DifferenceTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)PTYREG Dem-Rep 14 25 -3 13 16 27 -22 2 10 22 36 272-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 27 -6 18 18 25 -16 8 14 32 41 283-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 32 13 20 24 32 6 8 20 33 44 32DIRECT Right-Wrong -72 -82 -67 -71 -76 -88 -73 -77 -83 -68 -58 -63BO JOB App-Disapp 19 23 15 20 17 24 0 10 13 22 41 2619 GOV Brown-Whitman 4 12 -4 4 6 20 -25 0 5 -5 12 8SIM GOV Brown-Whitman 6 17 -11 6 8 25 -39 0 5 -1 18 1323 SEN Boxer-Fiorina 15 16 16 14 16 14 14 3 15 20 36 19SIM SEN Boxer-Fiorina 17 23 16 16 21 22 4 4 18 25 39 28SEN TYPE Supp-Opp 29 38 40 27 34 34 25 16 25 48 50 51

Key GroupsTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Reg Rep Not ID Rep 10 10 13 10 12 7 16 10 12 17 10 13Reg Dem Not ID Dem 10 10 13 9 12 10 11 8 11 10 12 13

Q7 Chance of voting in 2010Total answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Almost certain 81 89 75 80 84 92 73 87 87 82 67 80Probably 9 5 18 9 10 6 20 8 11 2 12 950-50 5 5 2 6 4 2 1 3 1 11 12 8Less than 50-50 1 1 3 1 1 0 5 1 1 2 2 1Will not vote 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 4 1(Don't know) 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Q8 Enthusiasm about 2010 electionTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)10 31 33 26 31 30 35 28 34 33 29 24 269 7 6 3 7 5 4 4 7 4 9 7 68 14 13 10 15 13 11 9 12 10 17 21 187 13 13 21 13 14 15 23 14 15 10 10 126 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 5 7 4 9 55 13 14 11 13 14 14 5 13 14 14 14 154 4 5 5 4 5 5 5 3 6 5 4 53 3 3 6 3 4 4 9 4 5 0 2 22 2 1 7 2 3 1 8 2 2 2 1 31 2 1 2 2 1 1 0 2 1 1 2 20 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 3 3 9 4 6(Don't know/refused) 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 010 31 33 26 31 30 35 28 34 33 29 24 268-10 52 52 39 53 48 51 41 53 47 55 52 506-10 71 72 66 72 68 73 70 73 69 69 71 670-5 28 28 34 27 32 27 30 27 31 31 28 33(Don't know/refused) 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0Mean 7.1 7.2 6.5 7.2 7.0 7.4 6.7 7.3 7.1 6.9 7.0 6.8

Q9 Early vote likelihoodTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Almost certain 41 41 42 42 39 40 48 47 41 44 34 36Probably 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 6 7 6 10 550-50 10 7 5 11 9 7 4 9 9 5 15 9Less than 50-50 6 4 3 6 5 5 1 6 4 2 8 6Will not vote 33 39 40 31 38 38 39 31 38 40 31 40(Don't know) 1 3 4 1 2 3 1 1 2 3 2 4(Refused) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0

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NONWT UNIONTotal UNION WHT UNION

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Married Single

Sep Divor ced

Wid owed

Sep Div Wid

Unmarr ied

Married Women

Unmarr ied

WomenMarried

MenUnmarr ied Men

Voted in person

Voted by mail

Vote DifferenceTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)PTYREG Dem-Rep 14 7 24 23 20 22 23 11 28 3 17 19 52-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 13 30 17 26 20 27 18 30 8 22 29 73-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 10 42 26 23 25 36 16 39 4 32 29 8DIRECT Right-Wrong -72 -79 -58 -70 -70 -70 -62 -77 -62 -81 -62 -73 -76BO JOB App-Disapp 19 12 33 28 17 23 30 16 28 9 31 24 919 GOV Brown-Whitman 4 0 7 18 14 16 11 1 16 -1 3 9 1SIM GOV Brown-Whitman 6 1 11 22 13 18 14 2 19 0 7 13 023 SEN Boxer-Fiorina 15 8 29 26 12 21 26 17 30 -1 20 21 6SIM SEN Boxer-Fiorina 17 8 34 29 13 23 30 17 33 0 26 24 7SEN TYPE Supp-Opp 29 24 42 30 22 27 36 27 38 20 33 35 17

Key GroupsTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Reg Rep Not ID Rep 10 12 6 7 11 8 7 12 7 13 7 11 11Reg Dem Not ID Dem 10 9 9 16 9 13 11 8 13 9 8 8 10

Q7 Chance of voting in 2010Total answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Almost certain 81 88 64 84 82 83 72 87 73 89 69 80 89Probably 9 6 16 11 7 9 14 7 13 6 14 10 650-50 5 3 10 4 6 5 8 3 8 3 9 5 2Less than 50-50 1 1 3 0 0 0 2 1 2 1 3 1 1Will not vote 2 1 4 0 3 1 3 1 2 1 5 2 1(Don't know) 1 0 2 1 2 1 1 0 2 0 1 1 0(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Q8 Enthusiasm about 2010 electionTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)10 31 36 16 30 34 32 22 35 22 38 22 28 369 7 7 6 8 7 8 7 5 8 9 6 7 78 14 15 15 12 14 12 14 15 13 15 15 14 167 13 11 21 7 10 8 16 11 14 10 19 12 126 6 5 9 6 6 6 8 4 9 6 7 8 35 13 12 14 18 11 15 14 15 15 10 13 14 114 4 5 3 2 2 2 3 6 3 4 3 3 53 3 2 6 3 4 3 5 3 5 2 5 4 32 2 1 4 2 2 2 3 2 4 1 2 2 11 2 1 2 4 4 4 3 1 3 0 2 2 10 4 3 4 6 4 5 4 3 4 3 5 5 3(Don't know/refused) 1 0 0 1 4 2 1 0 1 1 0 1 110 31 36 16 30 34 32 22 35 22 38 22 28 368-10 52 58 37 51 55 52 43 54 43 62 43 49 606-10 71 74 67 64 71 66 67 70 65 79 69 69 750-5 28 25 33 35 26 31 32 30 33 21 31 30 24(Don't know/refused) 1 0 0 1 4 2 1 0 1 1 0 1 1Mean 7.1 7.5 6.5 6.8 7.2 7.0 6.7 7.3 6.6 7.7 6.7 7.0 7.6

Q9 Early vote likelihoodTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Almost certain 41 45 29 46 58 51 37 48 40 41 33 17 75Probably 7 6 7 12 6 10 8 8 10 5 6 7 750-50 10 10 14 5 7 6 11 9 12 11 10 11 7Less than 50-50 6 6 7 5 4 5 6 5 4 7 9 10 3Will not vote 33 31 40 31 20 26 35 29 32 34 39 53 7(Don't know) 1 1 2 1 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 1(Refused) 0 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0

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Total MARITAL MARITAL/GENDER 2008

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Voted in person

Voted by mail A B Cell Landline Base Latino

Vote DifferenceTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)PTYREG Dem-Rep 14 18 -2 13 14 22 13 8 362-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 24 6 19 18 29 17 12 403-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 23 5 21 21 41 18 14 46DIRECT Right-Wrong -72 -78 -80 -74 -70 -61 -74 -78 -52BO JOB App-Disapp 19 21 2 17 22 35 17 14 3919 GOV Brown-Whitman 4 14 -3 -1 9 10 3 0 17SIM GOV Brown-Whitman 6 15 -4 1 12 12 5 0 2823 SEN Boxer-Fiorina 15 19 -5 14 16 28 13 9 37SIM SEN Boxer-Fiorina 17 20 -3 16 19 32 15 10 45SEN TYPE Supp-Opp 29 28 13 24 33 52 26 23 49

Key GroupsTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Reg Rep Not ID Rep 10 11 13 9 11 4 11 10 11Reg Dem Not ID Dem 10 9 8 9 10 8 10 9 13

Q7 Chance of voting in 2010Total answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Almost certain 81 89 93 81 81 71 83 85 69Probably 9 6 4 10 9 16 8 9 1050-50 5 3 1 5 6 7 5 4 11Less than 50-50 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 4Will not vote 2 0 1 2 2 4 2 1 4(Don't know) 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 2(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Q8 Enthusiasm about 2010 electionTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)10 31 33 42 30 31 22 32 32 279 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 58 14 15 15 16 13 12 15 13 197 13 10 8 13 13 21 12 13 146 6 6 5 7 6 12 6 6 75 13 14 11 12 14 12 13 13 134 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 5 33 3 2 3 3 4 4 3 4 22 2 2 1 3 1 3 2 2 11 2 2 1 2 1 0 2 1 30 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 5(Don't know/refused) 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 110 31 33 42 30 31 22 32 32 278-10 52 55 65 52 51 40 53 52 516-10 71 72 77 72 70 73 71 71 720-5 28 27 22 27 29 27 28 29 26(Don't know/refused) 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1Mean 7.1 7.3 7.8 7.2 7.1 6.8 7.2 7.2 7.1

Q9 Early vote likelihoodTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Almost certain 41 23 79 42 40 32 43 43 36Probably 7 7 5 8 7 8 7 6 1150-50 10 8 5 9 12 13 10 9 14Less than 50-50 6 9 2 6 6 8 6 6 8Will not vote 33 51 7 33 32 39 32 34 28(Don't know) 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 2(Refused) 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1

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PHONE SAMPLETotal 2006 SPLIT

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LIKELY

Likely Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS

Reg Rep Not ID Rep

Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Mod erate

Conser vative

Q10 Direction of the stateTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Right direction 10 8 12 8 7 12 6 10 6 13 14 8 8Wrong track 82 86 77 84 88 76 90 81 89 70 76 83 87(Don't know) 7 5 9 7 5 10 4 7 5 16 9 8 4(Refuse) 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 1 0Right-Wrong -72 -78 -65 -76 -81 -64 -84 -70 -84 -57 -62 -75 -79

Q11 Emotion about Wrong DirectionTotal answering (1238) (722) (517) (364) (339) (523) (428) (238) (138) (102) (307) (497) (392)Angry 20 23 14 23 28 17 26 17 24 20 15 20 25Hopeless 7 5 6 10 5 7 6 9 7 9 9 6 7Afraid 8 8 9 6 9 10 7 7 4 8 10 8 7Disappointed 55 54 63 51 47 58 50 59 55 51 57 59 49(All) 5 5 3 6 8 5 8 4 5 9 5 4 7(None) 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 2 4(Don't know) 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0(Refused) 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0

Q12 Obama Job ApprovalTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Strongly Approve 29 32 49 18 7 45 10 24 20 26 45 27 15Smwt Approve 27 22 35 30 11 33 12 37 19 26 37 33 11Smwt Disapprove 11 9 8 12 13 8 13 14 12 15 7 13 11Strong Disapprove 26 31 3 29 63 7 58 18 43 18 4 19 58(DK/Ref) 6 4 4 8 5 6 5 5 5 13 5 7 5(Refuse) 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 0Total Approve 56 54 84 49 18 77 23 61 38 52 82 60 26Total Disapprove 37 40 11 41 76 15 71 32 54 34 11 32 69Approve-Disapprove 19 13 73 8 -58 62 -48 29 -16 18 71 29 -43

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IDEOLOGYTotal PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated Right Wrong

Q10 Direction of the stateTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Right direction 10 13 13 10 3 7 13 12 7 4 11 100 0Wrong track 82 76 77 83 93 83 76 76 88 92 81 0 100(Don't know) 7 10 8 6 3 8 10 11 5 4 7 0 0(Refuse) 1 1 2 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0Right-Wrong -72 -63 -64 -73 -90 -76 -63 -64 -81 -89 -71 100 -100

Q11 Emotion about Wrong DirectionTotal answering (1238) (289) (330) (162) (302) (155) (227) (270) (160) (259) (322) (0) (1238)Angry 20 15 14 28 30 18 15 17 24 28 18 0 20Hopeless 7 10 5 7 7 7 9 6 5 5 9 0 7Afraid 8 10 7 8 8 6 11 8 5 8 7 0 8Disappointed 55 57 66 47 45 56 55 61 53 48 57 0 55(All) 5 4 4 8 6 7 4 4 8 7 4 0 5(None) 3 3 2 2 4 3 4 2 3 3 3 0 3(Don't know) 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0(Refused) 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 1 0 1 0 0

Q12 Obama Job ApprovalTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Strongly Approve 29 47 43 12 3 20 50 39 18 5 25 52 25Smwt Approve 27 38 38 21 5 27 34 33 22 5 35 30 26Smwt Disapprove 11 7 8 18 10 19 7 10 12 12 13 6 12Strong Disapprove 26 2 6 41 76 19 2 11 39 73 19 6 31(DK/Ref) 6 5 5 6 5 10 5 7 6 5 6 5 5(Refuse) 1 2 0 2 0 4 2 0 3 0 1 0 1Total Approve 56 85 81 33 8 47 84 72 39 10 60 82 51Total Disapprove 37 9 14 59 86 38 9 21 51 84 32 12 42Approve-Disapprove 19 76 67 -25 -78 9 75 52 -11 -74 28 70 9

Page 38

Total PTY/IDEO PTYREG/IDEO STATE DIR

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

10 8-10 6-10 0-5 0-7 BrownWhit man Und Ref

Q10 Direction of the stateTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Right direction 10 9 10 10 9 10 13 7 8Wrong track 82 84 84 82 82 80 78 88 74(Don't know) 7 6 6 7 8 9 8 5 18(Refuse) 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 1Right-Wrong -72 -75 -74 -72 -73 -71 -66 -81 -67

Q11 Emotion about Wrong DirectionTotal answering (1238) (388) (655) (882) (349) (577) (542) (553) (116)Angry 20 31 27 24 11 13 16 26 14Hopeless 7 4 5 5 12 9 5 8 7Afraid 8 9 9 8 8 7 8 9 6Disappointed 55 42 49 53 60 62 63 48 55(All) 5 7 5 5 6 5 5 6 6(None) 3 5 4 3 3 2 3 3 4(Don't know) 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 4(Refused) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3

Q12 Obama Job ApprovalTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Strongly Approve 29 32 31 31 22 26 43 15 25Smwt Approve 27 16 22 24 34 32 36 17 29Smwt Disapprove 11 7 8 10 14 13 8 14 10Strong Disapprove 26 42 34 29 19 17 7 48 18(DK/Ref) 6 3 3 5 9 9 5 6 11(Refuse) 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 0 6Total Approve 56 48 54 56 56 59 79 32 55Total Disapprove 37 49 43 39 33 31 15 62 28Approve-Disapprove 19 -1 11 17 24 28 64 -31 27

Page 39

Total ENTHUSIASM GOV VOTE

Page 40: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q10 Direction of the stateTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Right direction 10 9 16 16 24 12 16 7 3 11 19 14 4 16Wrong track 82 81 77 74 65 75 74 80 94 80 71 74 91 73(Don't know) 7 8 6 7 11 12 10 13 2 7 9 11 5 10(Refuse) 1 2 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 1Right-Wrong -72 -73 -61 -58 -42 -62 -57 -73 -92 -70 -51 -60 -87 -57

Q11 Emotion about Wrong DirectionTotal answering (1238) (321) (111) (68) (42) (114) (86) (117) (378) (432) (110) (200) (495) (310)Angry 20 17 17 5 14 10 13 21 32 17 8 11 29 10Hopeless 7 5 8 4 4 9 13 7 7 6 4 11 7 9Afraid 8 10 3 5 5 4 12 11 8 8 5 8 9 7Disappointed 55 60 62 77 67 65 54 51 42 61 74 60 44 65(All) 5 4 6 6 3 3 6 7 7 4 5 4 7 4(None) 3 4 4 2 2 4 0 1 3 4 2 3 3 2(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 1(Refused) 0 0 0 0 4 1 2 1 0 0 2 1 0 1

Q12 Obama Job ApprovalTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Strongly Approve 29 50 39 28 26 34 15 16 11 47 27 26 13 26Smwt Approve 27 33 36 47 42 32 39 26 7 34 45 35 12 39Smwt Disapprove 11 6 11 9 12 8 13 22 12 7 10 10 15 10Strong Disapprove 26 7 7 6 12 13 23 24 65 7 9 17 54 14(DK/Ref) 6 3 5 9 9 9 7 11 4 3 9 8 6 9(Refuse) 1 2 1 0 0 3 2 1 1 2 0 3 1 2Total Approve 56 83 75 76 67 66 54 42 18 81 72 61 25 65Total Disapprove 37 12 18 15 23 21 36 47 77 14 18 28 69 24Approve-Disapprove 19 70 57 61 44 45 18 -5 -59 67 54 33 -44 41

Page 40

Total BROWN VCS

Page 41: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q10 Direction of the stateTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Right direction 10 3 7 20 14 17 13 15 8 4 17 15 10 16Wrong track 82 94 81 76 78 65 75 77 83 91 77 70 81 72(Don't know) 7 2 12 4 7 19 10 6 7 5 5 15 7 11(Refuse) 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 2 0 1 1 2 1Right-Wrong -72 -91 -73 -57 -64 -48 -62 -62 -75 -87 -60 -55 -71 -57

Q11 Emotion about Wrong DirectionTotal answering (1238) (344) (93) (58) (58) (85) (94) (148) (358) (437) (116) (179) (506) (295)Angry 20 34 23 10 5 13 8 18 17 31 7 10 17 9Hopeless 7 6 6 19 11 7 5 9 6 6 15 6 7 9Afraid 8 8 10 15 7 6 5 4 9 9 11 5 8 7Disappointed 55 41 55 53 71 61 76 58 58 44 62 69 58 66(All) 5 7 5 5 4 4 5 6 4 7 4 4 5 4(None) 3 4 1 0 3 5 2 3 3 3 1 3 3 3(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 1

Q12 Obama Job ApprovalTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Strongly Approve 29 11 13 17 35 29 26 34 47 12 26 28 43 27Smwt Approve 27 5 28 36 34 33 43 36 33 11 35 37 34 37Smwt Disapprove 11 12 24 14 11 10 9 11 6 15 12 9 7 11Strong Disapprove 26 66 24 27 15 12 11 11 9 56 21 12 10 15(DK/Ref) 6 4 11 5 5 12 10 6 3 6 5 11 4 9(Refuse) 1 0 0 1 0 4 1 2 2 0 1 2 2 2Total Approve 56 17 41 52 69 62 69 70 80 23 61 65 77 64Total Disapprove 37 79 48 41 26 22 20 22 15 71 34 21 17 26Approve-Disapprove 19 -62 -7 11 44 40 48 48 65 -49 27 44 60 38

Page 41

Total WHITMAN VCS

Page 42: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Brown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

better

Govt back

groundBiz back ground

Brown better

Whit man

better Boxer Fiorina DK/ Ref

Q10 Direction of the stateTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Right direction 10 12 7 14 6 14 7 10 10 14 5 14 4 8Wrong track 82 79 90 76 89 77 88 80 85 76 89 76 92 71(Don't know) 7 8 3 8 4 8 4 9 4 8 5 9 3 20(Refuse) 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 1Right-Wrong -72 -67 -83 -62 -82 -63 -81 -70 -75 -62 -84 -62 -88 -63

Q11 Emotion about Wrong DirectionTotal answering (1238) (536) (450) (413) (501) (392) (599) (574) (591) (382) (606) (606) (527) (94)Angry 20 15 31 17 25 16 26 16 25 17 26 14 29 18Hopeless 7 6 7 5 8 5 7 6 8 5 8 8 6 5Afraid 8 8 10 8 10 6 10 7 9 7 10 6 10 9Disappointed 55 61 44 63 48 64 49 61 49 61 47 64 46 54(All) 5 5 5 4 6 4 5 5 7 4 6 4 7 4(None) 3 4 2 3 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 3 3 5(Don't know) 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 2(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 3

Q12 Obama Job ApprovalTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Strongly Approve 29 43 14 45 17 47 16 39 19 47 16 43 10 24Smwt Approve 27 36 13 34 17 35 19 33 21 32 19 37 13 29Smwt Disapprove 11 7 14 7 14 8 14 8 13 7 14 8 13 14Strong Disapprove 26 9 53 8 48 5 47 12 41 8 46 5 58 14(DK/Ref) 6 3 5 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 6 4 14(Refuse) 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 2 1 1 0 1 1 5Total Approve 56 80 27 79 33 81 35 72 40 79 35 80 23 53Total Disapprove 37 16 67 15 62 13 61 20 55 15 60 13 72 28Approve-Disapprove 19 64 -40 63 -29 68 -25 52 -15 64 -26 67 -48 25

Page 42

ENERGY BCKGRND ECONOMY SEN VOTETotal UNDERSTAND CLEAR PLAN

Page 43: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q10 Direction of the stateTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Right direction 10 9 18 20 20 9 10 10 2 11 20 10 4 16Wrong track 82 83 73 63 69 67 81 80 96 80 66 74 93 69(Don't know) 7 6 7 16 10 23 8 10 1 7 13 16 3 14(Refuse) 1 2 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 1Right-Wrong -72 -75 -55 -43 -49 -57 -71 -69 -94 -69 -46 -64 -89 -53

Q11 Emotion about Wrong DirectionTotal answering (1238) (327) (123) (78) (78) (59) (64) (84) (425) (450) (156) (123) (509) (279)Angry 20 18 9 5 10 15 7 23 32 16 7 11 31 9Hopeless 7 7 4 10 20 3 3 6 7 6 15 3 6 10Afraid 8 7 5 3 7 10 20 10 8 7 5 15 9 10Disappointed 55 58 78 73 54 60 65 50 42 64 64 62 43 63(All) 5 4 1 6 6 4 5 9 7 3 6 4 7 5(None) 3 5 1 2 2 6 0 1 3 4 2 3 3 3(Don't know) 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1(Refused) 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0

Q12 Obama Job ApprovalTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Strongly Approve 29 53 29 33 42 26 24 14 8 46 37 25 9 32Smwt Approve 27 35 44 46 24 37 35 32 5 38 36 36 10 36Smwt Disapprove 11 5 15 6 11 12 17 22 12 8 9 14 13 11Strong Disapprove 26 4 5 4 9 7 19 22 71 4 6 13 61 9(DK/Ref) 6 3 6 10 13 13 4 7 4 4 11 9 5 10(Refuse) 1 2 1 0 2 5 1 4 0 1 1 3 1 2Total Approve 56 87 73 79 65 63 59 45 13 83 73 61 19 68Total Disapprove 37 8 20 11 20 19 36 44 82 12 15 27 75 20Approve-Disapprove 19 79 54 69 45 44 22 1 -69 71 58 34 -55 48

Page 43

Total BOXER VCS

Page 44: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q10 Direction of the stateTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Right direction 10 2 9 9 14 18 18 8 3 11 16 11 15Wrong track 82 96 83 84 70 64 73 84 94 80 67 80 70(Don't know) 7 1 7 7 15 17 8 6 2 10 16 7 14(Refuse) 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 0 0 1 2 1Right-Wrong -72 -94 -74 -76 -56 -46 -55 -75 -91 -69 -51 -69 -55

Q11 Emotion about Wrong DirectionTotal answering (1238) (401) (61) (47) (128) (97) (142) (344) (462) (65) (225) (486) (289)Angry 20 34 22 5 11 9 9 18 32 6 10 16 9Hopeless 7 6 6 3 14 9 4 8 6 2 12 7 10Afraid 8 8 12 19 7 8 6 7 9 17 7 7 9Disappointed 55 42 49 66 57 68 75 57 43 67 61 62 63(All) 5 7 10 7 5 5 3 4 7 6 5 4 5(None) 3 3 0 0 3 2 1 5 3 2 3 4 3(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1(Refused) 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1

Q12 Obama Job ApprovalTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Strongly Approve 29 8 12 24 35 30 28 51 8 23 33 44 31Smwt Approve 27 4 32 39 25 43 44 34 8 41 33 38 34Smwt Disapprove 11 11 25 15 11 10 15 5 13 17 10 8 12Strong Disapprove 26 73 27 18 11 6 5 5 66 14 9 5 10(DK/Ref) 6 4 2 3 14 11 6 3 4 5 13 4 11(Refuse) 1 0 2 1 3 0 2 2 1 1 2 2 2Total Approve 56 12 44 63 60 73 72 86 17 64 66 81 65Total Disapprove 37 83 52 34 22 16 20 10 79 31 19 13 22Approve-Disapprove 19 -72 -8 29 38 57 52 76 -62 33 46 68 44

Page 44

Total FIORINA VCS

Page 45: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Support Obama

Oppose Obama

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better Favor Oppose

Impor tant

Not Impor tant

Q10 Direction of the stateTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Right direction 10 13 4 14 5 13 4 13 4 10 10 12 3Wrong track 82 76 94 76 91 79 93 78 93 83 83 78 94(Don't know) 7 9 2 9 4 8 3 8 3 6 6 9 3(Refuse) 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0Right-Wrong -72 -63 -90 -62 -86 -66 -89 -65 -89 -73 -73 -66 -91

Q11 Emotion about Wrong DirectionTotal answering (1238) (675) (424) (426) (483) (508) (413) (443) (443) (490) (478) (882) (348)Angry 20 15 28 16 30 15 31 16 30 24 18 16 32Hopeless 7 7 7 8 5 7 7 7 6 9 6 6 9Afraid 8 7 9 7 8 7 9 5 9 8 8 8 7Disappointed 55 63 44 60 46 64 45 65 46 49 60 61 41(All) 5 4 6 4 7 3 5 4 6 7 4 5 7(None) 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4(Don't know) 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0

Q12 Obama Job ApprovalTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Strongly Approve 29 46 2 47 13 46 10 48 9 20 37 35 8Smwt Approve 27 39 5 35 11 36 10 35 13 23 29 33 9Smwt Disapprove 11 6 16 8 13 8 12 6 13 12 11 11 10Strong Disapprove 26 3 74 5 58 4 64 6 60 37 17 13 66(DK/Ref) 6 5 3 4 4 5 4 5 4 7 4 6 6(Refuse) 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 2 2 1Total Approve 56 85 7 82 24 82 20 82 22 43 66 68 18Total Disapprove 37 9 90 13 71 12 76 12 73 49 29 24 76Approve-Disapprove 19 76 -83 69 -47 70 -55 70 -51 -6 38 44 -58

Page 45

SHARE VALUES JOBS ECON PROP 23 GW IMPTTotal SENTYPE CHANGE

Page 46: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

White Black Latino Asian Men Women Men Women Men Women

Q10 Direction of the stateTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Right direction 10 7 21 17 14 10 10 9 6 14 20Wrong track 82 86 77 71 75 83 81 85 86 77 65(Don't know) 7 6 2 11 11 6 8 5 7 8 14(Refuse) 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 0Right-Wrong -72 -78 -57 -53 -61 -73 -71 -76 -80 -63 -45

Q11 Emotion about Wrong DirectionTotal answering (1238) (866) (58) (203) (51) (589) (649) (406) (460) (98) (105)Angry 20 22 15 16 15 23 18 26 18 16 16Hopeless 7 7 1 7 7 7 7 8 6 8 7Afraid 8 8 8 8 5 7 9 6 11 9 7Disappointed 55 54 71 55 72 54 56 53 55 54 56(All) 5 5 0 8 0 5 6 4 6 7 9(None) 3 3 3 3 0 3 3 2 3 3 2(Don't know) 0 0 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0(Refused) 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 2 2

Q12 Obama Job ApprovalTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Strongly Approve 29 27 47 32 24 26 31 24 29 30 33Smwt Approve 27 25 33 33 51 29 26 27 23 32 33Smwt Disapprove 11 10 4 15 11 10 11 10 10 14 16Strong Disapprove 26 31 13 13 7 28 24 33 30 15 11(DK/Ref) 6 6 3 7 5 6 6 4 7 8 6(Refuse) 1 2 0 0 2 1 1 1 2 1 0Total Approve 56 52 80 64 75 55 57 51 52 62 66Total Disapprove 37 41 17 28 18 38 36 43 39 29 28Approve-Disapprove 19 11 63 36 57 17 21 8 13 33 39

Page 46

WHT GEN LAT GENTotal RACE GENDER

Page 47: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over

Q10 Direction of the stateTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Right direction 10 17 12 6 8 8 12 8Wrong track 82 68 81 88 85 84 79 85(Don't know) 7 15 6 5 6 6 9 6(Refuse) 1 0 1 0 1 2 0 1Right-Wrong -72 -51 -69 -82 -77 -76 -67 -77

Q11 Emotion about Wrong DirectionTotal answering (1238) (175) (183) (240) (347) (242) (598) (589)Angry 20 6 16 22 26 24 15 25Hopeless 7 16 2 4 6 9 7 7Afraid 8 6 10 11 7 8 9 7Disappointed 55 62 64 54 52 48 59 51(All) 5 5 5 4 6 6 5 6(None) 3 2 4 3 3 3 3 3(Don't know) 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1(Refused) 0 2 0 1 0 0 1 0

Q12 Obama Job ApprovalTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Strongly Approve 29 26 26 25 32 32 26 32Smwt Approve 27 40 38 25 23 18 34 21Smwt Disapprove 11 15 13 12 8 9 13 8Strong Disapprove 26 9 15 33 31 35 19 33(DK/Ref) 6 10 6 4 4 5 7 5(Refuse) 1 0 2 1 2 1 1 1Total Approve 56 66 64 50 55 50 60 53Total Disapprove 37 24 28 45 39 44 33 41Approve-Disapprove 19 43 36 5 16 5 27 12

Page 47

Total AGE

Page 48: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over 18-29 30-4950 and

over 18-4950 and

over

Q10 Direction of the stateTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Right direction 10 16 12 2 6 7 9 6 23 10 17 17 17Wrong track 82 68 82 93 87 87 83 87 64 78 73 70 73(Don't know) 7 16 7 5 5 4 8 5 13 10 10 12 10(Refuse) 1 0 0 0 2 2 0 2 0 2 0 1 0Right-Wrong -72 -53 -70 -91 -82 -80 -75 -81 -41 -67 -56 -53 -56

Q11 Emotion about Wrong DirectionTotal answering (1238) (72) (112) (166) (275) (206) (350) (481) (73) (72) (56) (144) (56)Angry 20 6 13 24 27 24 17 26 7 20 21 14 21Hopeless 7 25 0 4 5 9 7 7 8 7 7 7 7Afraid 8 5 9 13 7 9 10 8 7 11 8 9 8Disappointed 55 62 67 51 52 47 58 50 62 54 49 58 49(All) 5 0 5 4 7 6 3 7 10 8 7 9 7(None) 3 2 6 3 2 3 4 2 2 1 6 1 6(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1(Refused) 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 4 0 1 2 1

Q12 Obama Job ApprovalTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Strongly Approve 29 23 27 19 30 29 23 30 26 29 41 28 41Smwt Approve 27 39 35 25 23 17 32 20 40 29 29 35 29Smwt Disapprove 11 15 9 12 8 10 11 9 17 20 6 18 6Strong Disapprove 26 11 20 40 33 38 26 35 8 15 18 11 18(DK/Ref) 6 12 8 3 4 5 7 5 9 5 6 7 6(Refuse) 1 0 1 2 2 1 1 2 0 1 0 1 0Total Approve 56 62 62 44 53 46 54 50 66 59 70 63 70Total Disapprove 37 26 28 51 41 48 37 44 25 35 24 30 24Approve-Disapprove 19 36 34 -8 12 -2 17 6 41 23 46 33 46

Page 48

Total WHT AGE LAT AGE

Page 49: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Young Women

Young Men

Older Women

Older Men

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Q10 Direction of the stateTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Right direction 10 11 12 9 6 18 8 8 8 12 8Wrong track 82 79 80 83 87 72 83 83 87 79 85(Don't know) 7 10 7 6 6 9 8 8 4 8 7(Refuse) 1 0 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Right-Wrong -72 -68 -67 -74 -80 -54 -75 -75 -80 -67 -77

Q11 Emotion about Wrong DirectionTotal answering (1238) (311) (287) (310) (279) (195) (401) (345) (283) (596) (629)Angry 20 13 18 22 29 19 20 17 25 20 21Hopeless 7 6 8 7 7 12 9 5 3 10 4Afraid 8 11 7 8 6 7 8 4 14 7 9Disappointed 55 60 59 52 49 52 54 63 50 53 57(All) 5 5 4 7 5 6 6 6 5 6 5(None) 3 4 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 3(Don't know) 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0(Refused) 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0

Q12 Obama Job ApprovalTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Strongly Approve 29 30 22 33 31 35 26 26 32 29 28Smwt Approve 27 29 39 23 18 27 25 30 27 26 29Smwt Disapprove 11 15 11 7 10 10 11 11 9 11 10Strong Disapprove 26 19 20 29 37 21 28 27 26 26 26(DK/Ref) 6 5 8 6 3 6 8 5 3 7 4(Refuse) 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 2Total Approve 56 59 60 56 50 62 51 55 59 55 57Total Disapprove 37 34 31 37 46 31 40 38 36 36 37Approve-Disapprove 19 25 30 19 3 32 12 17 24 19 20

Page 49

Total GENDER/AGE EDUCATION

Page 50: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Non College College

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Q10 Direction of the stateTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Right direction 10 8 5 8 7 6 8 21 7 10 9 14 6Wrong track 82 86 87 83 88 87 85 66 83 81 85 78 85(Don't know) 7 6 6 7 5 6 6 11 10 8 5 8 8(Refuse) 1 0 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1Right-Wrong -72 -78 -82 -74 -81 -81 -77 -46 -77 -71 -76 -64 -79

Q11 Emotion about Wrong DirectionTotal answering (1238) (117) (257) (263) (225) (374) (488) (144) (57) (280) (304) (317) (325)Angry 20 24 22 17 26 23 21 16 15 23 24 17 18Hopeless 7 14 9 6 4 10 5 9 4 9 6 11 3Afraid 8 6 9 4 14 8 9 6 15 8 6 7 11Disappointed 55 48 50 65 49 49 58 58 49 51 57 55 58(All) 5 7 5 5 5 5 5 8 10 5 5 7 6(None) 3 2 4 3 2 3 3 2 4 4 2 2 4(Don't know) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0(Refused) 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 0

Q12 Obama Job ApprovalTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Strongly Approve 29 28 22 26 33 23 29 34 23 27 25 31 31Smwt Approve 27 23 21 28 27 22 28 34 30 26 32 26 26Smwt Disapprove 11 9 11 10 9 10 10 14 20 11 10 11 11Strong Disapprove 26 33 38 29 25 36 28 10 21 27 29 24 24(DK/Ref) 6 7 7 6 3 7 5 8 4 9 3 6 6(Refuse) 1 1 1 2 3 1 2 0 2 0 2 1 2Total Approve 56 51 43 53 60 45 56 68 53 53 57 57 57Total Disapprove 37 42 48 39 35 46 37 24 41 38 38 35 36Approve-Disapprove 19 9 -6 14 25 -1 19 44 12 15 19 22 22

Page 50

GENDER/EDUCTotal WHT EDUC LAT EDUC

Page 51: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Q10 Direction of the stateTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Right direction 10 7 10 6 5 14 9 9 6 7 10 6 6Wrong track 82 86 84 87 86 75 84 83 86 83 83 88 87(Don't know) 7 6 5 6 8 10 7 7 5 9 7 4 5(Refuse) 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 2Right-Wrong -72 -79 -74 -82 -80 -61 -74 -74 -80 -76 -73 -83 -80

Q11 Emotion about Wrong DirectionTotal answering (1238) (171) (234) (203) (254) (298) (296) (271) (314) (144) (205) (212) (268)Angry 20 27 25 19 18 16 15 23 27 20 14 24 27Hopeless 7 10 7 10 3 10 4 10 5 12 4 9 5Afraid 8 8 5 8 13 8 11 8 7 9 11 8 7Disappointed 55 45 59 53 57 57 62 48 53 52 63 46 53(All) 5 5 4 6 6 5 5 7 6 2 5 8 5(None) 3 4 1 3 4 3 3 4 2 4 3 3 2(Don't know) 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1(Refused) 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0

Q12 Obama Job ApprovalTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Strongly Approve 29 21 26 26 31 27 24 31 33 20 25 26 33Smwt Approve 27 21 31 23 24 31 37 21 21 26 35 19 21Smwt Disapprove 11 12 9 9 10 13 13 8 8 12 11 9 9Strong Disapprove 26 38 29 35 26 19 20 34 32 32 22 40 31(DK/Ref) 6 7 2 7 7 9 4 5 4 11 4 5 4(Refuse) 1 1 2 1 2 0 2 1 1 0 2 2 2Total Approve 56 42 57 48 55 58 61 52 54 46 60 45 54Total Disapprove 37 50 38 43 36 32 33 42 40 44 33 49 40Approve-Disapprove 19 -8 19 5 20 27 28 10 14 2 27 -4 14

Page 51

Total WHT GEN/EDUC AGE/EDUC WHT AGE/EDUC

Page 52: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

MemberHhold

memberNo

memberTotal Union Member

Hhold member

No member

Total Union Member

No member

Total Union

Q10 Direction of the stateTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Right direction 10 6 11 11 7 3 9 8 4 13 16 14Wrong track 82 87 78 81 83 90 82 85 87 81 74 76(Don't know) 7 5 11 7 8 5 9 6 7 6 10 10(Refuse) 1 1 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 1 1 1Right-Wrong -72 -82 -67 -71 -76 -88 -73 -77 -83 -68 -58 -63

Q11 Emotion about Wrong DirectionTotal answering (1238) (154) (68) (948) (272) (109) (46) (669) (187) (45) (278) (85)Angry 20 21 15 21 19 22 7 23 18 19 16 20Hopeless 7 5 11 7 8 5 11 7 8 4 7 6Afraid 8 8 5 8 7 10 7 8 8 4 8 6Disappointed 55 59 59 55 56 57 63 53 56 63 58 57(All) 5 3 9 5 6 3 12 5 7 3 7 4(None) 3 4 0 3 3 2 0 3 2 7 2 5(Don't know) 0 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Q12 Obama Job ApprovalTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Strongly Approve 29 32 20 29 27 32 19 26 27 33 35 29Smwt Approve 27 27 28 28 26 29 21 25 26 22 34 28Smwt Disapprove 11 14 7 10 13 10 8 10 11 21 11 15Strong Disapprove 26 22 26 27 24 26 31 32 28 11 16 15(DK/Ref) 6 6 17 5 9 3 20 5 7 13 4 13(Refuse) 1 0 2 1 0 0 2 2 0 0 1 0Total Approve 56 59 48 57 54 61 39 51 53 55 68 56Total Disapprove 37 35 33 37 37 37 39 42 40 33 27 30Approve-Disapprove 19 23 15 20 17 24 0 10 13 22 41 26

Page 52

NONWT UNIONTotal UNION WHT UNION

Page 53: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Married Single

Sep Divor ced

Wid owed

Sep Div Wid

Unmarr ied

Married Women

Unmarr ied

WomenMarried

MenUnmarr ied Men

Voted in person

Voted by mail

Q10 Direction of the stateTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Right direction 10 7 16 10 9 10 14 7 14 7 14 9 9Wrong track 82 86 74 79 79 79 76 85 76 88 75 82 85(Don't know) 7 6 9 9 10 9 9 7 9 4 9 8 6(Refuse) 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 0Right-Wrong -72 -79 -58 -70 -70 -70 -62 -77 -62 -81 -62 -73 -76

Q11 Emotion about Wrong DirectionTotal answering (1238) (749) (288) (112) (71) (183) (471) (370) (265) (379) (206) (586) (516)Angry 20 23 12 23 19 21 16 21 14 26 19 21 21Hopeless 7 4 12 11 11 11 12 3 12 5 11 8 7Afraid 8 7 10 10 7 9 9 9 8 5 10 8 9Disappointed 55 56 58 45 51 47 54 57 56 55 52 55 53(All) 5 5 4 8 9 8 6 5 7 5 4 5 6(None) 3 4 2 3 3 3 2 4 2 3 2 3 3(Don't know) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1(Refused) 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 0

Q12 Obama Job ApprovalTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Strongly Approve 29 28 28 31 35 32 29 31 31 26 27 30 28Smwt Approve 27 25 35 28 21 25 31 25 28 25 36 28 23Smwt Disapprove 11 10 14 8 9 8 12 10 12 9 12 11 10Strong Disapprove 26 31 15 23 30 26 19 29 19 33 19 24 32(DK/Ref) 6 4 8 9 4 7 7 4 9 5 6 5 5(Refuse) 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2Total Approve 56 53 62 59 56 58 60 56 59 51 62 58 51Total Disapprove 37 41 29 31 39 34 31 40 31 42 31 35 42Approve-Disapprove 19 12 33 28 17 23 30 16 28 9 31 24 9

Page 53

Total MARITAL MARITAL/GENDER 2008

Page 54: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Voted in person

Voted by mail A B Cell Landline Base Latino

Q10 Direction of the stateTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Right direction 10 8 6 9 10 14 9 7 18Wrong track 82 85 87 83 81 75 83 85 70(Don't know) 7 5 6 7 8 11 7 6 11(Refuse) 1 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 1Right-Wrong -72 -78 -80 -74 -70 -61 -74 -78 -52

Q11 Emotion about Wrong DirectionTotal answering (1238) (462) (345) (633) (604) (136) (1102) (1008) (230)Angry 20 21 23 17 24 15 21 23 11Hopeless 7 5 5 9 5 14 6 7 7Afraid 8 9 8 8 8 10 8 9 6Disappointed 55 57 53 56 54 53 55 54 58(All) 5 5 6 6 5 3 6 4 10(None) 3 3 4 3 3 4 3 3 5(Don't know) 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1(Refused) 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 3

Q12 Obama Job ApprovalTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Strongly Approve 29 31 30 28 30 27 29 27 34Smwt Approve 27 26 18 28 27 39 26 26 33Smwt Disapprove 11 9 11 12 10 14 10 11 12Strong Disapprove 26 28 35 27 25 17 27 29 15(DK/Ref) 6 5 4 5 7 4 6 6 6(Refuse) 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Total Approve 56 57 48 55 57 65 55 53 66Total Disapprove 37 36 46 39 35 30 38 40 27Approve-Disapprove 19 21 2 17 22 35 17 14 39

Page 54

PHONE SAMPLETotal 2006 SPLIT

Page 55: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LIKELY

Likely Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS

Reg Rep Not ID Rep

Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Mod erate

Conser vative

Q13-18 Summary FavorabilityTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)

Very Fav 33 36 58 20 8 53 10 25 17 33 58 31 14Very Unfav 21 26 3 23 52 5 49 15 38 12 3 13 51Total Fav 63 60 90 59 24 85 29 68 43 65 91 69 30Total Unfav 33 39 8 37 73 12 67 28 51 28 7 27 68ID 97 99 98 96 97 97 97 97 95 93 98 96 98Don't ID 3 1 2 4 3 3 3 3 5 7 2 4 2Fav - Unfav 30 21 82 22 -49 74 -39 40 -8 37 84 42 -38

Very Fav 18 21 32 11 2 31 4 12 7 16 36 13 6Very Unfav 29 35 6 33 63 9 61 21 51 22 4 23 61Total Fav 44 46 72 33 10 69 13 39 24 47 73 45 16Total Unfav 41 46 13 48 80 17 77 36 63 31 12 37 73ID 86 93 87 83 90 87 91 77 88 80 87 84 90Don't ID 14 7 13 17 10 13 9 23 12 20 13 16 10Fav - Unfav 4 0 59 -15 -71 52 -64 3 -40 16 61 8 -58

Very Fav 12 14 20 8 3 19 3 7 3 11 20 11 5Very Unfav 24 28 7 28 50 9 48 19 39 22 4 20 48Total Fav 40 45 61 29 18 60 17 31 17 43 66 40 18Total Unfav 41 45 21 50 69 23 70 39 65 34 17 39 68ID 84 92 85 81 88 86 88 74 84 79 85 82 87Don't ID 16 8 15 19 12 14 12 26 16 21 15 18 13Fav - Unfav -1 0 41 -21 -51 37 -53 -8 -48 9 49 1 -51

Very Fav 9 11 2 9 20 2 20 7 16 6 1 6 20Very Unfav 17 23 27 14 5 28 5 10 5 20 33 16 5Total Fav 24 30 9 24 50 11 48 17 37 21 7 20 45Total Unfav 29 35 43 26 10 43 13 23 17 28 50 29 11ID 59 70 59 57 65 60 65 48 61 56 62 57 61Don't ID 41 30 41 43 35 40 35 52 39 44 38 43 39Fav - Unfav -5 -5 -35 -2 40 -32 35 -6 20 -7 -43 -9 34

Very Fav 10 12 3 7 24 4 21 7 14 8 2 7 20Very Unfav 26 30 38 24 9 40 10 21 11 31 47 24 11Total Fav 33 37 17 32 62 17 57 29 44 29 13 31 54Total Unfav 44 47 58 46 18 58 23 43 34 47 67 44 23ID 81 86 80 82 82 80 83 77 83 78 83 81 79Don't ID 19 14 20 18 18 20 17 23 17 22 17 19 21Fav - Unfav -11 -10 -41 -14 44 -41 34 -14 10 -17 -54 -13 31

Very Fav 16 19 25 10 5 26 7 7 11 13 25 16 6Very Unfav 20 23 5 23 43 8 39 15 27 18 4 15 42Total Fav 48 51 70 37 21 67 25 41 33 44 68 51 25Total Unfav 34 39 12 42 64 17 62 27 51 31 11 31 62ID 84 91 84 83 87 85 90 73 88 78 80 85 88Don't ID 16 9 16 17 13 15 10 27 12 22 20 15 12Fav - Unfav 13 13 58 -5 -43 50 -37 14 -18 13 57 20 -37

Page 55

IDEOLOGY

16 Carly Fiorina

17 Meg Whitman

18 Dianne Feinstein

13 Barack Obama

14 Barbara Boxer

15 Jerry Brown

Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS

Page 56: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated Right Wrong

Q13-18 Summary FavorabilityTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)

Very Fav 33 60 47 12 4 21 63 45 17 5 28 50 30Very Unfav 21 1 4 31 66 15 1 7 31 63 14 5 25Total Fav 63 94 87 40 14 57 93 79 47 15 68 90 59Total Unfav 33 4 11 53 85 33 4 18 45 83 28 8 38ID 97 98 98 94 99 91 98 97 93 99 96 98 97Don't ID 3 2 2 6 1 9 2 3 7 1 4 2 3Fav - Unfav 30 90 75 -13 -70 24 89 61 2 -68 40 82 20

Very Fav 18 37 21 3 2 15 42 21 5 2 14 27 17Very Unfav 29 3 10 48 76 23 3 14 46 74 21 10 33Total Fav 44 76 62 18 6 30 81 59 23 6 40 55 42Total Unfav 41 10 20 67 87 43 7 25 66 86 36 21 45ID 86 87 84 85 94 78 89 86 90 93 78 79 88Don't ID 14 13 16 15 6 22 11 14 10 7 22 21 12Fav - Unfav 4 67 42 -49 -81 -13 74 34 -44 -80 4 34 -4

Very Fav 12 21 16 3 2 9 23 16 4 3 9 18 11Very Unfav 24 3 11 36 59 23 3 14 35 58 19 9 27Total Fav 40 68 51 25 11 23 72 51 26 11 33 50 38Total Unfav 41 15 27 57 79 45 14 30 59 78 38 21 46ID 84 86 81 83 90 78 89 84 86 90 76 74 86Don't ID 16 14 19 17 10 22 11 16 14 10 24 26 14Fav - Unfav -1 53 24 -31 -68 -22 57 21 -33 -67 -4 29 -8

Very Fav 9 1 2 13 25 7 0 3 12 25 6 5 10Very Unfav 17 34 19 6 4 14 36 21 8 4 13 11 18Total Fav 24 6 11 40 56 17 5 15 38 55 17 15 26Total Unfav 29 51 35 15 9 23 53 35 20 8 24 24 30ID 59 62 53 62 68 51 64 57 64 66 51 47 61Don't ID 41 38 47 38 32 49 36 43 36 34 49 53 39Fav - Unfav -5 -46 -23 25 47 -6 -48 -20 18 47 -8 -8 -4

Very Fav 10 2 4 15 26 5 2 5 14 26 6 7 10Very Unfav 26 48 31 15 6 20 50 31 16 6 23 22 27Total Fav 33 12 22 46 67 27 11 22 43 68 30 25 35Total Unfav 44 67 53 29 16 36 70 50 34 16 42 45 44ID 81 83 80 80 84 71 85 76 82 85 77 71 82Don't ID 19 17 20 20 16 29 15 24 18 15 23 29 18Fav - Unfav -11 -55 -31 18 51 -9 -58 -29 9 52 -12 -20 -9

Very Fav 16 26 22 8 3 10 29 23 11 3 9 23 15Very Unfav 20 3 6 29 53 19 3 11 25 50 17 5 23Total Fav 48 70 65 32 15 34 75 61 39 16 41 58 46Total Unfav 34 10 19 49 74 35 10 23 47 74 29 14 39ID 84 81 85 83 91 79 85 86 87 92 76 73 87Don't ID 16 19 15 17 9 21 15 14 13 8 24 27 13Fav - Unfav 13 61 46 -17 -60 -2 65 38 -7 -57 12 44 7

Page 56

STATE DIR

17 Meg Whitman

18 Dianne Feinstein

13 Barack Obama

14 Barbara Boxer

15 Jerry Brown

16 Carly Fiorina

Total PTY/IDEO PTYREG/IDEO

Page 57: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

10 8-10 6-10 0-5 0-7 BrownWhit man Und Ref

Q13-18 Summary FavorabilityTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)

Very Fav 33 36 36 35 28 30 51 17 24Very Unfav 21 37 28 23 16 14 5 40 15Total Fav 63 52 59 62 66 68 87 39 57Total Unfav 33 47 39 35 28 28 11 59 28ID 97 99 98 98 95 96 98 99 86Don't ID 3 1 2 2 5 4 2 1 14Fav - Unfav 30 5 20 27 38 40 77 -20 29

Very Fav 18 26 23 21 10 12 33 5 5Very Unfav 29 42 37 31 23 20 6 56 14Total Fav 44 42 43 45 41 45 73 17 30Total Unfav 41 52 48 42 38 33 16 70 28ID 86 94 92 88 80 80 89 89 62Don't ID 14 6 8 12 20 20 11 11 38Fav - Unfav 4 -10 -4 3 3 12 57 -53 2

Very Fav 12 19 16 15 5 7 24 1 2Very Unfav 24 40 33 27 18 15 2 50 17Total Fav 40 40 42 44 31 38 74 11 15Total Unfav 41 50 46 41 44 37 11 75 32ID 84 92 89 87 78 79 88 88 54Don't ID 16 8 11 13 22 21 12 12 46Fav - Unfav -1 -10 -4 3 -13 1 63 -64 -17

Very Fav 9 18 13 11 3 4 2 18 2Very Unfav 17 21 19 18 15 15 33 3 5Total Fav 24 39 33 28 12 14 8 46 5Total Unfav 29 30 30 30 27 29 51 9 11ID 59 73 68 65 46 50 65 62 28Don't ID 41 27 32 35 54 50 35 38 72Fav - Unfav -5 9 3 -2 -15 -15 -43 37 -6

Very Fav 10 20 15 12 5 4 1 22 1Very Unfav 26 28 28 27 25 25 50 4 13Total Fav 33 46 40 37 24 26 8 67 10Total Unfav 44 39 42 43 45 45 74 14 22ID 81 87 84 83 74 77 85 85 42Don't ID 19 13 16 17 26 23 15 15 58Fav - Unfav -11 7 -2 -6 -21 -20 -66 53 -12

Very Fav 16 22 20 17 10 11 27 6 6Very Unfav 20 29 25 21 18 15 6 36 12Total Fav 48 46 48 49 43 46 70 28 32Total Unfav 34 45 39 35 32 29 16 57 20ID 84 92 90 87 77 79 87 87 61Don't ID 16 8 10 13 23 21 13 13 39Fav - Unfav 13 1 9 14 12 17 54 -29 11

Page 57

17 Meg Whitman

18 Dianne Feinstein

13 Barack Obama

14 Barbara Boxer

15 Jerry Brown

16 Carly Fiorina

Total ENTHUSIASM GOV VOTE

Page 58: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q13-18 Summary FavorabilityTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)

Very Fav 33 59 44 33 39 35 22 20 10 55 36 29 13 32Very Unfav 21 4 6 3 12 9 18 16 57 4 7 13 46 11Total Fav 63 91 86 82 77 74 60 53 23 89 79 68 31 72Total Unfav 33 8 13 9 23 18 35 40 75 9 15 26 66 22ID 97 99 99 91 100 93 96 94 98 99 95 94 97 94Don't ID 3 1 1 9 0 7 4 6 2 1 5 6 3 6Fav - Unfav 30 83 73 72 53 56 25 13 -52 80 64 42 -35 51

Very Fav 18 44 22 11 19 12 6 2 4 38 14 9 4 11Very Unfav 29 5 5 7 12 11 24 33 74 5 9 17 63 14Total Fav 44 82 68 60 50 37 29 21 10 78 55 34 13 42Total Unfav 41 13 15 19 25 26 49 47 85 14 22 36 75 31ID 86 95 84 82 75 67 80 72 95 92 79 73 89 75Don't ID 14 5 16 18 25 33 20 28 5 8 21 27 11 25Fav - Unfav 4 68 53 41 25 12 -20 -26 -75 64 34 -2 -62 11

Very Fav 12 35 12 7 11 3 1 0 1 29 8 3 1 5Very Unfav 24 1 2 3 5 5 9 18 76 1 4 7 60 6Total Fav 40 81 71 58 63 27 21 11 3 78 60 24 5 37Total Unfav 41 10 10 17 13 25 46 59 92 10 15 34 83 27ID 84 92 83 81 77 59 72 73 95 90 79 65 89 70Don't ID 16 8 17 19 23 41 28 27 5 10 21 35 11 30Fav - Unfav -1 71 61 41 50 2 -25 -48 -89 68 45 -10 -78 10

Very Fav 9 1 0 2 8 3 1 4 27 1 5 2 21 3Very Unfav 17 51 13 11 6 4 4 2 4 40 9 4 3 6Total Fav 24 7 5 10 20 15 12 26 57 6 14 14 48 14Total Unfav 29 67 37 34 16 10 12 10 10 59 26 11 10 17ID 59 76 52 52 42 34 36 45 71 70 48 35 64 40Don't ID 41 24 48 48 58 66 64 55 29 30 52 65 36 60Fav - Unfav -5 -60 -32 -24 4 5 0 16 47 -52 -12 3 38 -3

Very Fav 10 0 1 4 2 6 6 8 28 0 3 6 23 5Very Unfav 26 75 27 12 7 7 9 6 5 62 10 8 5 9Total Fav 33 2 13 14 27 34 34 47 70 5 19 34 64 29Total Unfav 44 91 67 47 25 17 30 23 12 85 38 23 15 28ID 81 94 83 70 55 59 74 75 85 91 64 66 82 65Don't ID 19 6 17 30 45 41 26 25 15 9 36 34 18 35Fav - Unfav -11 -90 -54 -34 3 17 4 24 58 -80 -18 11 49 0

Very Fav 16 37 13 16 12 12 6 5 4 31 14 9 4 11Very Unfav 20 7 3 4 9 9 21 14 51 6 6 14 41 11Total Fav 48 78 62 63 45 47 28 34 20 74 56 39 23 45Total Unfav 34 14 18 14 24 14 44 34 71 15 18 27 61 24ID 84 93 80 81 72 71 78 69 93 90 77 74 87 75Don't ID 16 7 20 19 28 29 22 31 7 10 23 26 13 25Fav - Unfav 13 64 44 49 21 33 -16 0 -51 59 37 12 -38 21

Page 58

18 Dianne Feinstein

13 Barack Obama

14 Barbara Boxer

15 Jerry Brown

16 Carly Fiorina

Total BROWN VCS

17 Meg Whitman

Page 59: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q13-18 Summary FavorabilityTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)

Very Fav 33 10 20 23 41 32 28 40 56 12 32 30 51 31Very Unfav 21 58 15 18 9 12 8 10 5 48 14 10 7 12Total Fav 63 21 55 62 79 70 74 78 87 29 71 72 84 71Total Unfav 33 77 43 37 19 22 18 16 11 69 28 20 12 23ID 97 99 97 100 98 93 92 95 98 99 99 92 97 95Don't ID 3 1 3 0 2 7 8 5 2 1 1 8 3 5Fav - Unfav 30 -56 12 26 60 48 56 61 77 -40 43 52 72 48

Very Fav 18 4 2 10 16 12 9 17 41 3 13 10 34 11Very Unfav 29 76 37 28 17 12 9 10 8 67 22 11 8 15Total Fav 44 9 20 28 42 35 54 58 77 12 35 44 71 41Total Unfav 41 87 50 56 34 23 23 20 16 78 45 23 18 31ID 86 97 73 84 81 61 81 80 94 91 83 71 90 75Don't ID 14 3 27 16 19 39 19 20 6 9 17 29 10 25Fav - Unfav 4 -78 -30 -27 8 12 31 38 61 -67 -10 21 54 10

Very Fav 12 1 1 2 3 7 5 9 32 1 3 6 25 5Very Unfav 24 77 19 10 4 10 4 5 4 63 7 7 5 7Total Fav 40 2 12 26 38 37 47 56 75 5 32 42 69 38Total Unfav 41 94 64 43 33 17 24 18 15 87 38 20 16 27ID 84 97 80 70 76 59 78 77 91 93 73 68 87 70Don't ID 16 3 20 30 24 41 22 23 9 7 27 32 13 30Fav - Unfav -1 -92 -51 -17 5 20 23 37 60 -82 -6 22 53 12

Very Fav 9 29 4 1 4 5 2 1 1 23 2 4 1 3Very Unfav 17 3 1 4 4 6 9 9 47 3 4 7 36 6Total Fav 24 61 30 18 27 11 8 7 7 53 22 10 7 15Total Unfav 29 9 9 12 9 12 30 30 63 9 10 21 53 17ID 59 74 47 43 42 31 49 46 74 67 42 40 65 41Don't ID 41 26 53 57 58 69 51 54 26 33 58 60 35 59Fav - Unfav -5 52 22 6 18 -1 -22 -23 -56 45 12 -11 -46 -2

Very Fav 10 31 11 10 11 2 3 1 0 26 10 2 0 5Very Unfav 26 2 1 12 5 6 9 22 73 2 8 7 57 8Total Fav 33 76 58 48 62 16 12 14 2 71 55 14 6 29Total Unfav 44 9 19 28 16 17 40 59 89 12 22 28 80 26ID 81 86 81 84 83 40 62 78 93 85 84 51 88 63Don't ID 19 14 19 16 17 60 38 22 7 15 16 49 12 37Fav - Unfav -11 66 39 21 46 -1 -28 -45 -87 60 33 -14 -74 3

Very Fav 16 4 6 7 16 10 12 11 34 4 12 11 27 11Very Unfav 20 52 14 22 11 9 8 6 9 43 16 9 8 11Total Fav 48 20 35 31 54 37 57 54 74 24 42 46 68 45Total Unfav 34 73 37 47 16 19 19 19 17 65 32 19 18 24ID 84 95 74 78 81 62 83 74 92 90 80 72 86 75Don't ID 16 5 26 22 19 38 17 26 8 10 20 28 14 25Fav - Unfav 13 -53 -2 -16 38 18 38 34 57 -41 11 27 50 21

Page 59

18 Dianne Feinstein

13 Barack Obama

14 Barbara Boxer

15 Jerry Brown

16 Carly Fiorina

Total WHITMAN VCS

17 Meg Whitman

Page 60: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Brown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

better

Govt back

groundBiz back ground

Brown better

Whit man

better Boxer Fiorina DK/ Ref

Q13-18 Summary FavorabilityTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)

Very Fav 33 50 17 51 21 54 20 45 21 55 19 50 12 26Very Unfav 21 6 45 6 40 5 38 10 34 5 39 4 48 10Total Fav 63 85 37 85 42 88 43 80 47 87 42 89 30 58Total Unfav 33 12 62 13 57 10 56 17 50 11 56 10 68 24ID 97 97 99 98 99 98 99 97 97 98 98 98 98 83Don't ID 3 3 1 2 1 2 1 3 3 2 2 2 2 17Fav - Unfav 30 73 -26 73 -15 78 -13 62 -3 76 -15 79 -38 34

Very Fav 18 31 8 35 6 36 6 28 8 38 6 32 2 2Very Unfav 29 9 58 9 52 7 51 14 46 7 53 2 70 12Total Fav 44 71 18 71 22 72 24 64 25 76 22 77 7 11Total Unfav 41 19 71 18 65 16 64 23 60 16 66 10 86 31ID 86 90 90 89 89 89 89 88 86 92 89 88 93 47Don't ID 14 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 14 8 11 12 7 53Fav - Unfav 4 51 -54 53 -43 55 -40 41 -34 60 -43 67 -79 -20

Very Fav 12 23 2 27 2 29 2 20 4 31 1 20 2 7Very Unfav 24 3 55 2 49 2 46 10 39 2 47 5 53 15Total Fav 40 73 12 73 17 77 18 62 19 80 16 63 15 16Total Unfav 41 16 77 13 70 10 70 22 63 9 72 18 76 35ID 84 90 90 88 89 88 89 86 84 90 91 83 92 56Don't ID 16 10 10 12 11 12 11 14 16 10 9 17 8 44Fav - Unfav -1 57 -65 60 -53 67 -52 40 -43 71 -56 44 -61 -19

Very Fav 9 1 20 2 19 2 16 3 15 2 17 1 21 1Very Unfav 17 33 3 31 6 36 5 29 6 36 5 30 2 11Total Fav 24 10 47 11 44 9 41 14 36 9 42 6 53 3Total Unfav 29 51 10 48 14 53 13 44 15 52 13 47 8 16ID 59 66 61 64 63 67 60 64 56 65 61 59 68 29Don't ID 41 34 39 36 37 33 40 36 44 35 39 41 32 71Fav - Unfav -5 -41 37 -37 30 -44 28 -30 21 -42 30 -41 45 -13

Very Fav 10 2 25 2 22 1 20 3 18 1 20 2 22 4Very Unfav 26 49 3 48 6 52 8 44 9 54 6 41 9 15Total Fav 33 11 70 11 65 8 61 14 54 8 63 16 59 23Total Unfav 44 74 13 69 19 75 20 65 22 75 19 63 21 24ID 81 88 84 83 87 86 84 84 80 86 85 82 83 58Don't ID 19 12 16 17 13 14 16 16 20 14 15 18 17 42Fav - Unfav -11 -62 58 -58 46 -68 41 -51 32 -67 44 -47 39 -1

Very Fav 16 26 5 30 6 31 6 25 7 31 6 26 4 5Very Unfav 20 7 40 7 35 6 34 11 30 7 35 3 46 9Total Fav 48 68 26 70 31 73 30 62 33 72 30 72 20 23Total Unfav 34 18 61 17 54 15 53 22 47 17 54 12 68 23ID 84 88 89 88 87 88 85 86 83 89 87 85 90 56Don't ID 16 12 11 12 13 12 15 14 17 11 13 15 10 44Fav - Unfav 13 50 -35 52 -23 58 -23 40 -14 55 -23 60 -48 0

Page 60

17 Meg Whitman

18 Dianne Feinstein

13 Barack Obama

14 Barbara Boxer

15 Jerry Brown

16 Carly Fiorina

ENERGY BCKGRND ECONOMY SEN VOTETotal UNDERSTAND CLEAR PLAN

Page 61: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q13-18 Summary FavorabilityTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)

Very Fav 33 64 32 36 46 30 29 15 8 54 41 30 9 36Very Unfav 21 2 5 3 7 6 10 19 58 3 5 7 51 6Total Fav 63 94 83 84 82 73 65 47 20 91 83 70 25 77Total Unfav 33 5 13 14 15 14 26 44 78 8 15 20 72 17ID 97 99 96 98 97 88 92 92 98 98 98 90 97 94Don't ID 3 1 4 2 3 12 8 8 2 2 2 10 3 6Fav - Unfav 30 89 70 69 67 59 39 3 -59 83 68 50 -47 61

Very Fav 18 48 20 13 16 5 3 1 1 40 14 4 1 10Very Unfav 29 1 2 2 5 5 16 28 84 1 3 11 73 6Total Fav 44 90 71 61 58 20 25 8 2 84 60 22 3 44Total Unfav 41 6 13 13 15 18 42 64 95 8 14 29 89 20ID 86 96 86 76 75 45 67 75 97 93 76 55 93 67Don't ID 14 4 14 24 25 55 33 25 3 7 24 45 7 33Fav - Unfav 4 84 58 48 44 2 -17 -56 -93 76 46 -7 -86 24

Very Fav 12 30 14 5 8 9 4 4 2 25 6 6 2 6Very Unfav 24 4 5 7 8 11 17 31 60 4 8 14 55 10Total Fav 40 79 52 44 43 26 25 22 10 71 44 25 12 36Total Unfav 41 13 24 25 21 25 44 53 84 16 23 33 78 27ID 84 93 78 74 69 59 73 79 94 88 72 66 91 69Don't ID 16 7 22 26 31 41 27 21 6 12 28 34 9 31Fav - Unfav -1 66 28 20 22 1 -19 -32 -74 55 21 -8 -66 9

Very Fav 9 1 0 2 4 1 4 8 25 1 3 2 21 3Very Unfav 17 56 6 2 1 5 3 6 3 41 2 4 3 3Total Fav 24 2 8 13 10 14 14 22 59 4 12 14 52 13Total Unfav 29 74 31 16 9 8 10 10 10 61 12 9 10 11ID 59 79 44 38 33 36 37 46 73 68 35 37 67 36Don't ID 41 21 56 62 67 64 63 54 27 32 65 63 33 64Fav - Unfav -5 -71 -24 -3 1 6 4 12 50 -57 -1 5 42 2

Very Fav 10 1 1 4 7 7 8 12 24 1 6 7 22 6Very Unfav 26 59 27 15 25 9 18 13 8 50 19 13 9 17Total Fav 33 7 22 21 31 23 36 45 62 12 26 29 59 27Total Unfav 44 79 55 42 40 18 29 24 21 72 41 23 21 34ID 81 90 80 69 74 52 71 76 85 87 71 61 84 67Don't ID 19 10 20 31 26 48 29 24 15 13 29 39 16 33Fav - Unfav -11 -72 -33 -21 -10 5 7 21 42 -61 -15 6 38 -7

Very Fav 16 36 19 15 13 6 3 4 4 31 14 4 4 10Very Unfav 20 4 2 2 4 5 13 9 57 3 3 9 48 5Total Fav 48 82 66 61 57 29 21 33 16 77 59 26 19 45Total Unfav 34 10 13 9 18 14 44 36 77 11 13 28 69 19ID 84 94 79 73 79 54 71 72 94 89 76 62 90 70Don't ID 16 6 21 27 21 46 29 28 6 11 24 38 10 30Fav - Unfav 13 72 53 53 39 16 -22 -3 -62 66 46 -2 -50 26

Page 61

18 Dianne Feinstein

13 Barack Obama

14 Barbara Boxer

15 Jerry Brown

16 Carly Fiorina

Total BOXER VCS

17 Meg Whitman

Page 62: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q13-18 Summary FavorabilityTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)

Very Fav 33 8 14 28 37 34 32 62 9 28 36 52 34Very Unfav 21 60 22 10 8 5 5 3 54 10 7 4 7Total Fav 63 19 48 67 74 78 80 92 23 71 76 88 75Total Unfav 33 80 47 25 17 19 13 7 75 24 18 9 19ID 97 99 96 92 91 98 93 99 99 95 94 97 94Don't ID 3 1 4 8 9 2 7 1 1 5 6 3 6Fav - Unfav 30 -61 1 42 57 58 66 85 -52 47 57 79 55

Very Fav 18 2 2 1 10 11 17 46 2 5 11 37 10Very Unfav 29 87 34 18 5 5 3 2 79 16 5 3 7Total Fav 44 2 11 27 39 54 62 86 3 29 46 78 43Total Unfav 41 97 74 48 16 19 17 8 93 40 17 11 22ID 86 99 89 76 60 75 81 95 97 70 66 90 67Don't ID 14 1 11 24 40 25 19 5 3 30 34 10 33Fav - Unfav 4 -95 -64 -21 24 34 45 78 -90 -11 29 67 21

Very Fav 12 2 2 4 6 4 14 29 2 6 5 24 6Very Unfav 24 62 38 17 9 10 7 4 59 15 9 5 11Total Fav 40 10 26 32 33 38 47 76 12 33 35 67 35Total Unfav 41 86 57 41 19 34 26 14 82 39 26 18 28ID 84 96 89 80 59 76 75 91 95 79 66 86 69Don't ID 16 4 11 20 41 24 25 9 5 21 34 14 31Fav - Unfav -1 -77 -31 -10 14 4 20 62 -70 -5 9 49 6

Very Fav 9 26 11 6 3 2 0 1 24 4 2 1 3Very Unfav 17 2 3 1 2 5 7 55 2 1 3 40 3Total Fav 24 63 30 19 7 11 7 2 58 25 9 4 12Total Unfav 29 9 6 7 8 17 29 73 9 5 12 59 10ID 59 75 56 42 28 38 40 78 72 42 33 66 35Don't ID 41 25 44 58 72 62 60 22 28 58 67 34 65Fav - Unfav -5 54 24 12 0 -6 -21 -71 50 21 -3 -55 2

Very Fav 10 25 14 7 5 6 1 1 24 11 5 1 7Very Unfav 26 7 13 17 18 15 26 59 8 13 17 48 16Total Fav 33 66 51 31 25 25 23 7 64 34 25 12 27Total Unfav 44 20 21 29 30 39 53 78 20 25 34 70 32ID 81 87 82 69 63 69 80 89 86 65 66 86 66Don't ID 19 13 18 31 37 31 20 11 14 35 34 14 34Fav - Unfav -11 46 30 2 -5 -13 -30 -71 44 9 -9 -58 -5

Very Fav 16 3 3 3 9 12 17 36 3 6 10 30 9Very Unfav 20 59 11 12 5 4 2 5 52 11 4 4 6Total Fav 48 16 37 20 43 56 58 79 19 28 49 73 45Total Unfav 34 79 41 43 17 14 14 12 73 39 16 12 20ID 84 95 80 70 67 75 74 93 93 72 71 87 71Don't ID 16 5 20 30 33 25 26 7 7 28 29 13 29Fav - Unfav 13 -63 -5 -23 26 42 44 68 -54 -10 33 60 25

Page 62

18 Dianne Feinstein

13 Barack Obama

14 Barbara Boxer

15 Jerry Brown

16 Carly Fiorina

Total FIORINA VCS

17 Meg Whitman

Page 63: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Support Obama

Oppose Obama

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better Favor Oppose

Impor tant

Not Impor tant

Q13-18 Summary FavorabilityTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)

Very Fav 33 53 3 57 14 55 11 57 11 24 41 41 10Very Unfav 21 2 63 3 48 3 54 3 50 30 13 10 56Total Fav 63 92 12 90 31 90 28 90 29 52 75 76 23Total Unfav 33 5 86 9 67 8 71 9 69 45 22 20 75ID 97 98 98 99 98 98 99 99 98 97 98 96 98Don't ID 3 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 3 2 4 2Fav - Unfav 30 87 -74 81 -36 82 -43 81 -40 7 53 57 -52

Very Fav 18 28 3 41 3 37 2 40 2 12 25 22 6Very Unfav 29 8 69 4 66 3 73 4 71 40 18 15 69Total Fav 44 66 8 81 11 83 7 80 11 32 59 55 13Total Unfav 41 18 81 9 82 9 87 12 84 52 30 28 81ID 86 85 90 91 94 92 95 92 95 85 88 83 94Don't ID 14 15 10 9 6 8 5 8 5 15 12 17 6Fav - Unfav 4 48 -73 73 -72 74 -80 68 -74 -20 29 27 -68

Very Fav 12 19 2 24 4 23 2 25 2 9 14 13 7Very Unfav 24 9 50 6 50 7 53 6 53 33 14 15 52Total Fav 40 57 14 68 19 68 16 70 17 30 53 49 15Total Unfav 41 23 74 17 73 19 75 17 75 52 32 31 74ID 84 82 89 86 93 88 92 89 94 84 86 82 89Don't ID 16 18 11 14 7 12 8 11 6 16 14 18 11Fav - Unfav -1 34 -60 50 -54 49 -59 53 -58 -22 21 18 -59

Very Fav 9 3 20 2 22 2 25 2 24 12 6 5 21Very Unfav 17 25 3 34 3 34 2 37 3 8 29 22 3Total Fav 24 9 50 8 54 8 59 7 58 33 16 14 52Total Unfav 29 40 9 51 10 53 8 54 10 16 44 36 10ID 59 57 65 63 70 66 72 66 74 55 65 57 68Don't ID 41 43 35 37 30 34 28 34 26 45 35 43 32Fav - Unfav -5 -31 41 -43 43 -45 51 -47 48 16 -28 -21 43

Very Fav 10 4 21 2 22 2 24 2 24 15 6 6 21Very Unfav 26 37 9 45 8 44 9 47 8 17 37 32 11Total Fav 33 19 60 15 59 14 63 15 60 44 24 24 60Total Unfav 44 57 20 64 22 67 20 67 21 33 55 51 22ID 81 81 82 82 85 84 84 85 84 80 83 79 86Don't ID 19 19 18 18 15 16 16 15 16 20 17 21 14Fav - Unfav -11 -39 39 -50 37 -52 43 -52 40 11 -31 -27 38

Very Fav 16 23 3 31 5 30 3 31 4 10 20 19 5Very Unfav 20 5 49 4 44 3 47 4 47 27 13 11 46Total Fav 48 64 18 74 25 75 22 76 23 35 62 57 19Total Unfav 34 15 70 11 65 12 68 12 70 45 23 23 69ID 84 83 89 87 91 87 91 89 93 83 86 83 90Don't ID 16 17 11 13 9 13 9 11 7 17 14 17 10Fav - Unfav 13 49 -52 63 -40 63 -46 64 -47 -10 38 34 -50

Page 63

17 Meg Whitman

18 Dianne Feinstein

13 Barack Obama

14 Barbara Boxer

15 Jerry Brown

16 Carly Fiorina

SHARE VALUES JOBS ECON PROP 23 GW IMPTTotal SENTYPE CHANGE

Page 64: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

White Black Latino Asian Men Women Men Women Men Women

Q13-18 Summary FavorabilityTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)

Very Fav 33 31 60 33 29 29 37 28 34 27 38Very Unfav 21 25 8 13 6 23 20 26 24 15 11Total Fav 63 59 73 74 82 63 64 59 60 72 75Total Unfav 33 39 17 22 13 33 33 39 38 23 21ID 97 98 91 96 95 96 97 97 98 95 97Don't ID 3 2 9 4 5 4 3 3 2 5 3Fav - Unfav 30 21 56 52 69 30 30 20 21 49 55

Very Fav 18 18 23 15 13 17 19 16 20 15 14Very Unfav 29 34 19 16 8 33 24 40 29 19 13Total Fav 44 43 57 45 50 41 47 40 45 40 49Total Unfav 41 48 32 25 16 45 37 51 45 30 21ID 86 91 91 72 70 87 86 91 91 74 70Don't ID 14 9 9 28 30 13 14 9 9 26 30Fav - Unfav 4 -5 25 20 34 -4 10 -11 0 9 28

Very Fav 12 13 15 9 8 12 11 13 12 9 9Very Unfav 24 28 22 13 6 25 23 27 28 14 11Total Fav 40 42 35 34 44 39 41 42 42 34 35Total Unfav 41 47 40 26 22 42 41 47 48 28 25ID 84 91 78 64 75 84 84 91 92 65 63Don't ID 16 9 22 36 25 16 16 9 8 35 37Fav - Unfav -1 -5 -6 8 22 -3 0 -4 -5 6 10

Very Fav 9 10 5 3 3 10 8 11 10 4 3Very Unfav 17 21 12 9 12 17 18 20 21 11 7Total Fav 24 27 19 14 10 26 22 28 27 16 13Total Unfav 29 35 15 16 24 28 30 33 36 19 13ID 59 68 52 36 45 59 60 65 70 42 31Don't ID 41 32 48 64 55 41 40 35 30 58 69Fav - Unfav -5 -8 4 -2 -14 -3 -8 -5 -10 -3 0

Very Fav 10 11 6 5 9 11 8 11 11 8 2Very Unfav 26 29 21 20 14 25 28 28 31 18 22Total Fav 33 36 20 22 34 35 31 36 35 27 18Total Unfav 44 48 42 34 33 42 45 48 48 31 36ID 81 88 69 60 75 81 80 88 88 62 58Don't ID 19 12 31 40 25 19 20 12 12 38 42Fav - Unfav -11 -13 -22 -12 1 -6 -14 -12 -13 -4 -18

Very Fav 16 16 29 12 9 14 17 13 19 11 12Very Unfav 20 24 11 9 7 24 16 30 19 10 7Total Fav 48 48 57 42 51 43 51 44 53 40 44Total Unfav 34 40 26 20 13 38 31 45 35 22 19ID 84 90 85 66 73 84 84 90 89 65 67Don't ID 16 10 15 34 27 16 16 10 11 35 33Fav - Unfav 13 9 31 22 38 5 21 -1 18 18 25

Page 64

WHT GEN LAT GEN

17 Meg Whitman

18 Dianne Feinstein

13 Barack Obama

14 Barbara Boxer

15 Jerry Brown

16 Carly Fiorina

Total RACE GENDER

Page 65: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over

Q13-18 Summary FavorabilityTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)

Very Fav 33 28 37 31 38 32 32 35Very Unfav 21 6 11 28 26 28 15 27Total Fav 63 76 74 57 62 54 68 59Total Unfav 33 18 26 39 36 42 28 39ID 97 95 99 96 98 96 97 97Don't ID 3 5 1 4 2 4 3 3Fav - Unfav 30 57 48 18 25 12 40 20

Very Fav 18 12 10 15 21 27 13 23Very Unfav 29 7 20 35 34 41 21 37Total Fav 44 43 46 43 45 43 44 45Total Unfav 41 18 33 48 48 48 33 48ID 86 63 82 92 94 93 79 94Don't ID 14 37 18 8 6 7 21 6Fav - Unfav 4 25 13 -5 -3 -5 11 -4

Very Fav 12 7 6 9 16 18 7 17Very Unfav 24 6 14 29 28 36 17 31Total Fav 40 36 37 35 48 42 36 45Total Unfav 41 21 40 51 43 49 38 46ID 84 61 81 88 93 93 77 93Don't ID 16 39 19 12 7 7 23 7Fav - Unfav -1 15 -4 -16 5 -8 -2 0

Very Fav 9 2 6 10 8 15 6 11Very Unfav 17 5 10 16 25 21 11 24Total Fav 24 12 12 27 28 35 17 31Total Unfav 29 13 26 30 37 33 23 35ID 59 32 50 62 70 72 48 71Don't ID 41 68 50 38 30 28 52 29Fav - Unfav -5 -1 -14 -4 -9 2 -6 -5

Very Fav 10 3 7 12 9 17 8 12Very Unfav 26 19 17 24 33 31 20 32Total Fav 33 29 31 35 31 39 32 34Total Unfav 44 40 38 41 53 41 40 48ID 81 75 74 80 86 85 76 85Don't ID 19 25 26 20 14 15 24 15Fav - Unfav -11 -12 -6 -6 -22 -2 -8 -14

Very Fav 16 6 7 12 19 28 9 23Very Unfav 20 7 15 25 26 23 16 24Total Fav 48 34 48 45 53 54 42 54Total Unfav 34 18 34 42 37 37 32 37ID 84 56 86 89 91 94 77 92Don't ID 16 44 14 11 9 6 23 8Fav - Unfav 13 16 13 3 16 17 11 17

Page 65

18 Dianne Feinstein

13 Barack Obama

14 Barbara Boxer

15 Jerry Brown

16 Carly Fiorina

Total AGE

17 Meg Whitman

Page 66: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over 18-29 30-4950 and

over 18-4950 and

over

Q13-18 Summary FavorabilityTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)

Very Fav 33 29 35 26 36 29 30 33 28 32 43 30 43Very Unfav 21 7 14 33 28 30 20 29 7 16 18 11 18Total Fav 63 73 71 53 60 51 64 56 77 70 74 74 74Total Unfav 33 25 29 46 38 45 35 41 15 28 24 21 24ID 97 98 100 99 98 96 99 97 94 98 98 96 98Don't ID 3 2 0 1 2 4 1 3 6 2 2 4 2Fav - Unfav 30 48 41 7 22 5 29 15 62 41 50 53 50

Very Fav 18 15 12 13 20 25 13 22 8 10 28 9 28Very Unfav 29 9 24 41 37 43 27 40 9 20 20 14 20Total Fav 44 41 48 37 44 42 42 43 37 46 54 41 54Total Unfav 41 22 39 57 52 52 42 52 18 29 30 23 30ID 86 64 88 95 97 94 85 96 58 77 85 67 85Don't ID 14 36 12 5 3 6 15 4 42 23 15 33 15Fav - Unfav 4 19 9 -20 -7 -11 -1 -9 19 17 23 18 23

Very Fav 12 9 6 10 15 16 8 16 7 2 19 5 19Very Unfav 24 7 16 32 29 38 20 33 5 17 19 10 19Total Fav 40 41 39 37 49 41 39 46 29 32 46 30 46Total Unfav 41 27 49 58 45 52 47 48 17 33 30 24 30ID 84 72 89 96 95 94 88 94 50 69 80 58 80Don't ID 16 28 11 4 5 6 12 6 50 31 20 42 20Fav - Unfav -1 14 -10 -21 5 -11 -8 -2 12 -1 16 6 16

Very Fav 9 4 6 12 8 16 8 12 2 5 4 3 4Very Unfav 17 6 12 18 28 22 13 25 5 8 16 6 16Total Fav 24 10 13 31 30 37 20 33 14 8 22 11 22Total Unfav 29 16 33 35 41 34 30 38 13 14 23 14 23ID 59 32 59 72 75 75 58 75 31 32 48 31 48Don't ID 41 68 41 28 25 25 42 25 69 68 52 69 52Fav - Unfav -5 -5 -20 -4 -11 3 -10 -5 1 -6 -1 -2 -1

Very Fav 10 2 7 14 9 18 8 13 5 5 5 5 5Very Unfav 26 17 21 27 35 32 22 34 24 14 24 19 24Total Fav 33 28 34 38 33 42 34 37 27 19 18 23 18Total Unfav 44 52 40 44 57 42 45 51 36 31 36 34 36ID 81 87 82 86 92 88 85 90 67 54 57 61 57Don't ID 19 13 18 14 8 12 15 10 33 46 43 39 43Fav - Unfav -11 -25 -6 -6 -25 0 -11 -14 -9 -12 -18 -10 -18

Very Fav 16 7 8 9 19 25 8 22 6 9 24 7 24Very Unfav 20 13 19 30 27 24 22 26 4 12 12 8 12Total Fav 48 37 50 40 53 53 43 53 30 42 60 35 60Total Unfav 34 22 41 50 39 41 40 40 14 26 21 19 21ID 84 63 92 92 92 95 85 93 45 77 82 59 82Don't ID 16 37 8 8 8 5 15 7 55 23 18 41 18Fav - Unfav 13 16 8 -9 14 13 3 14 15 16 39 16 39

Page 66

16 Carly Fiorina

17 Meg Whitman

18 Dianne Feinstein

13 Barack Obama

14 Barbara Boxer

15 Jerry Brown

Total WHT AGE LAT AGE

Page 67: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Young Women

Young Men

Older Women

Older Men

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Q13-18 Summary FavorabilityTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)

Very Fav 33 37 26 37 33 36 28 32 41 31 36Very Unfav 21 14 16 25 29 20 22 21 21 21 21Total Fav 63 68 69 60 56 65 61 63 67 62 65Total Unfav 33 30 26 36 41 31 34 35 32 33 34ID 97 98 96 97 97 96 95 98 99 95 99Don't ID 3 2 4 3 3 4 5 2 1 5 1Fav - Unfav 30 38 43 24 15 35 27 27 35 30 31

Very Fav 18 12 14 27 20 14 15 17 27 14 22Very Unfav 29 17 26 32 42 23 29 29 32 27 30Total Fav 44 47 41 48 41 37 40 47 53 39 50Total Unfav 41 29 38 45 52 34 41 44 42 38 43ID 86 77 81 94 93 73 82 92 95 79 94Don't ID 14 23 19 6 7 27 18 8 5 21 6Fav - Unfav 4 18 2 2 -10 3 0 3 11 1 7

Very Fav 12 6 8 17 17 10 11 13 13 11 13Very Unfav 24 17 17 29 34 26 23 22 26 24 24Total Fav 40 36 36 47 44 29 38 44 48 35 46Total Unfav 41 38 38 44 47 35 39 45 46 37 45ID 84 77 76 92 93 70 79 90 95 76 93Don't ID 16 23 24 8 7 30 21 10 5 24 7Fav - Unfav -1 -2 -2 2 -3 -6 -1 -1 2 -2 0

Very Fav 9 5 7 10 12 10 8 9 8 9 9Very Unfav 17 10 11 24 23 7 12 18 32 10 24Total Fav 24 16 19 29 33 23 22 25 24 22 25Total Unfav 29 23 23 37 34 13 21 34 48 18 40ID 59 48 48 71 71 47 49 65 77 48 70Don't ID 41 52 52 29 29 53 51 35 23 52 30Fav - Unfav -5 -7 -5 -8 -1 9 1 -9 -24 4 -16

Very Fav 10 6 9 11 13 10 7 10 12 8 11Very Unfav 26 22 19 33 31 17 26 27 34 23 30Total Fav 33 29 34 32 37 33 31 33 35 31 34Total Unfav 44 41 38 49 47 28 41 49 54 36 51ID 81 75 78 85 85 67 76 86 92 73 88Don't ID 19 25 22 15 15 33 24 14 8 27 12Fav - Unfav -11 -11 -4 -16 -10 5 -10 -16 -19 -5 -17

Very Fav 16 9 9 26 19 12 14 14 23 13 18Very Unfav 20 11 21 22 28 19 21 22 17 20 20Total Fav 48 45 38 58 49 39 40 49 63 40 55Total Unfav 34 28 36 34 41 29 37 38 30 34 34ID 84 76 78 93 91 72 80 88 95 77 91Don't ID 16 24 22 7 9 28 20 12 5 23 9Fav - Unfav 13 18 2 24 7 10 3 12 33 6 21

Page 67

17 Meg Whitman

18 Dianne Feinstein

13 Barack Obama

14 Barbara Boxer

15 Jerry Brown

16 Carly Fiorina

Total GENDER/AGE EDUCATION

Page 68: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Non College College

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Q13-18 Summary FavorabilityTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)

Very Fav 33 28 23 31 43 25 36 36 26 27 32 35 39Very Unfav 21 32 29 23 21 30 22 10 21 23 22 20 20Total Fav 63 54 53 60 68 53 64 77 64 62 64 63 65Total Unfav 33 44 43 38 31 44 35 18 33 32 34 33 34ID 97 99 96 98 100 97 99 96 98 95 98 96 99Don't ID 3 1 4 2 0 3 1 4 2 5 2 4 1Fav - Unfav 30 10 9 23 37 10 29 59 31 30 29 30 32

Very Fav 18 8 16 17 28 14 22 14 18 15 19 14 24Very Unfav 29 38 38 32 30 38 31 12 28 32 35 23 26Total Fav 44 30 36 44 55 34 49 43 50 36 45 42 54Total Unfav 41 52 51 48 42 51 45 20 40 41 48 36 38ID 86 84 87 94 97 86 95 66 92 78 94 79 93Don't ID 14 16 13 6 3 14 5 34 8 22 6 21 7Fav - Unfav 4 -22 -15 -4 13 -17 4 23 10 -5 -3 6 16

Very Fav 12 9 14 13 13 12 13 9 9 11 13 10 13Very Unfav 24 38 31 22 24 33 23 10 20 25 25 23 23Total Fav 40 30 40 44 50 37 47 31 44 35 44 35 47Total Unfav 41 50 48 46 47 49 46 21 41 39 45 36 46ID 84 85 89 92 97 88 94 57 87 76 91 76 94Don't ID 16 15 11 8 3 12 6 43 13 24 9 24 6Fav - Unfav -1 -20 -8 -2 3 -12 0 11 3 -4 -1 -1 1

Very Fav 9 17 10 10 8 12 9 3 4 10 9 8 8Very Unfav 17 10 13 20 36 12 27 8 10 12 22 9 27Total Fav 24 32 28 27 24 29 26 14 15 23 28 22 21Total Unfav 29 17 24 38 52 22 45 15 19 19 37 17 44ID 59 62 57 70 81 58 75 34 41 48 69 49 71Don't ID 41 38 43 30 19 42 25 66 59 52 31 51 29Fav - Unfav -5 14 4 -11 -28 7 -19 -1 -4 3 -9 5 -22

Very Fav 10 13 9 11 12 10 12 4 8 10 13 7 10Very Unfav 26 20 29 29 36 26 32 20 23 22 27 24 32Total Fav 33 44 36 33 35 38 34 21 24 33 38 30 31Total Unfav 44 34 44 52 57 41 54 31 45 36 48 37 55ID 81 85 85 88 94 85 91 56 71 74 88 72 89Don't ID 19 15 15 12 6 15 9 44 29 26 12 28 11Fav - Unfav -11 10 -9 -18 -22 -3 -20 -9 -21 -3 -10 -7 -24

Very Fav 16 10 16 14 23 14 18 10 17 11 16 15 20Very Unfav 20 33 28 24 16 30 20 6 16 24 24 16 16Total Fav 48 32 40 49 66 37 57 41 47 37 49 42 61Total Unfav 34 48 45 40 29 46 35 15 34 37 40 32 29ID 84 82 88 90 96 86 93 60 83 77 91 78 92Don't ID 16 18 12 10 4 14 7 40 17 23 9 22 8Fav - Unfav 13 -16 -5 9 38 -9 22 26 13 0 9 11 32

Page 68

GENDER/EDUC

17 Meg Whitman

18 Dianne Feinstein

13 Barack Obama

14 Barbara Boxer

15 Jerry Brown

16 Carly Fiorina

Total WHT EDUC LAT EDUC

Page 69: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Q13-18 Summary FavorabilityTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)

Very Fav 33 20 34 29 39 31 32 31 40 23 34 26 39Very Unfav 21 31 23 29 21 14 17 30 25 23 19 35 24Total Fav 63 52 64 54 64 68 70 57 60 58 68 50 61Total Unfav 33 44 34 43 35 27 29 39 38 41 31 46 38ID 97 96 99 98 99 95 99 96 99 99 99 96 99Don't ID 3 4 1 2 1 5 1 4 1 1 1 4 1Fav - Unfav 30 7 30 11 28 41 40 17 22 16 37 4 23

Very Fav 18 13 18 14 26 11 15 18 28 10 16 16 27Very Unfav 29 44 37 34 26 17 26 39 35 28 27 47 34Total Fav 44 31 46 37 52 38 51 40 49 31 50 36 48Total Unfav 41 53 50 49 41 29 39 50 47 43 42 57 48ID 86 84 96 87 94 68 91 91 96 74 93 94 97Don't ID 14 16 4 13 6 32 9 9 4 26 7 6 3Fav - Unfav 4 -22 -4 -13 11 9 12 -10 2 -13 8 -21 1

Very Fav 12 12 13 12 13 7 7 15 19 11 7 13 18Very Unfav 24 32 24 35 23 15 19 35 28 25 18 39 28Total Fav 40 39 44 34 49 32 41 40 51 35 41 39 51Total Unfav 41 48 46 49 47 29 47 47 44 44 49 53 44ID 84 89 92 87 96 65 89 89 96 82 92 92 96Don't ID 16 11 8 13 4 35 11 11 4 18 8 8 4Fav - Unfav -1 -9 -1 -15 2 2 -6 -7 7 -9 -8 -14 7

Very Fav 9 13 9 12 9 7 6 11 11 12 6 13 11Very Unfav 17 13 25 11 29 5 17 16 31 3 21 17 32Total Fav 24 27 29 30 23 16 18 31 30 21 19 35 31Total Unfav 29 21 41 22 48 13 35 24 46 14 41 26 48ID 59 54 74 62 76 38 59 61 80 46 66 66 81Don't ID 41 46 26 38 24 62 41 39 20 54 34 34 19Fav - Unfav -5 6 -13 8 -24 3 -16 7 -16 7 -22 9 -17

Very Fav 10 10 13 11 11 5 10 12 12 6 10 13 13Very Unfav 26 25 30 27 34 18 23 28 36 18 26 30 37Total Fav 33 36 37 40 31 29 34 34 34 37 33 39 35Total Unfav 44 42 52 39 56 33 47 40 56 38 50 42 58ID 81 85 91 85 91 69 84 77 93 84 85 85 95Don't ID 19 15 9 15 9 31 16 23 7 16 15 15 5Fav - Unfav -11 -6 -15 0 -25 -4 -13 -5 -21 -2 -17 -3 -23

Very Fav 16 11 15 17 21 8 10 19 26 6 10 19 24Very Unfav 20 36 25 24 16 14 17 27 22 28 17 31 23Total Fav 48 34 51 41 62 32 53 48 59 26 54 45 59Total Unfav 34 51 41 42 30 31 32 39 36 49 34 45 35ID 84 88 92 85 93 68 87 89 95 79 89 91 95Don't ID 16 12 8 15 7 32 13 11 5 21 11 9 5Fav - Unfav 13 -17 10 -2 32 2 21 9 23 -23 20 0 24

Page 69

WHT AGE/EDUC

17 Meg Whitman

18 Dianne Feinstein

13 Barack Obama

14 Barbara Boxer

15 Jerry Brown

16 Carly Fiorina

Total WHT GEN/EDUC AGE/EDUC

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

MemberHhold

memberNo

memberTotal Union Member

Hhold member

No member

Total Union Member

No member

Total Union

Q13-18 Summary FavorabilityTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)

Very Fav 33 37 28 33 34 39 18 31 32 32 38 37Very Unfav 21 17 17 22 17 20 19 27 20 12 13 13Total Fav 63 68 64 63 66 70 55 58 64 64 73 68Total Unfav 33 27 29 34 30 28 38 40 33 25 22 24ID 97 95 94 97 96 98 94 98 97 89 96 93Don't ID 3 5 6 3 4 2 6 2 3 11 4 7Fav - Unfav 30 41 35 29 36 42 17 18 31 38 51 44

Very Fav 18 25 14 17 21 28 12 17 22 19 17 19Very Unfav 29 27 19 30 26 31 24 36 29 19 16 21Total Fav 44 53 39 43 48 52 33 41 47 54 48 50Total Unfav 41 37 40 42 38 40 46 50 42 29 25 32ID 86 90 79 86 87 92 80 92 90 85 75 83Don't ID 14 10 21 14 13 8 20 8 10 15 25 17Fav - Unfav 4 16 -1 2 10 12 -12 -9 6 24 23 18

Very Fav 12 15 17 11 15 16 18 12 15 13 9 15Very Unfav 24 18 16 26 19 21 20 30 22 11 18 14Total Fav 40 47 37 40 42 50 28 43 42 39 34 42Total Unfav 41 37 43 41 42 40 52 47 47 29 29 32ID 84 84 83 84 86 90 80 92 89 71 67 79Don't ID 16 16 17 16 14 10 20 8 11 29 33 21Fav - Unfav -1 10 -6 -1 0 10 -24 -4 -5 10 5 10

Very Fav 9 5 6 10 6 4 9 12 6 8 5 5Very Unfav 17 28 13 16 22 34 11 19 26 13 9 14Total Fav 24 21 15 25 19 20 19 30 20 23 17 17Total Unfav 29 39 22 28 34 46 23 33 40 25 17 21ID 59 67 43 60 59 73 43 68 66 55 41 47Don't ID 41 33 57 40 41 27 57 32 34 45 59 53Fav - Unfav -5 -18 -7 -3 -15 -25 -4 -4 -20 -2 0 -5

Very Fav 10 11 6 10 9 13 9 11 11 7 8 5Very Unfav 26 36 27 25 32 43 23 28 35 21 18 26Total Fav 33 27 25 34 28 31 25 37 31 18 29 20Total Unfav 44 51 52 42 50 54 56 47 53 44 32 44ID 81 82 84 80 82 89 85 88 89 64 64 70Don't ID 19 18 16 20 18 11 15 12 11 36 36 30Fav - Unfav -11 -24 -27 -8 -22 -23 -31 -10 -21 -26 -2 -23

Very Fav 16 23 13 15 19 26 11 15 20 17 14 16Very Unfav 20 15 15 21 18 18 16 26 20 10 10 15Total Fav 48 60 44 46 53 65 47 46 56 49 46 46Total Unfav 34 26 30 35 31 26 32 42 33 26 22 29ID 84 89 80 84 88 93 81 90 91 80 71 81Don't ID 16 11 20 16 12 7 19 10 9 20 29 19Fav - Unfav 13 33 14 11 22 38 15 5 24 23 24 18

Page 70

NONWT UNION

17 Meg Whitman

18 Dianne Feinstein

13 Barack Obama

14 Barbara Boxer

15 Jerry Brown

16 Carly Fiorina

Total UNION WHT UNION

Page 71: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Married Single

Sep Divor ced

Wid owed

Sep Div Wid

Unmarr ied

Married Women

Unmarr ied

WomenMarried

MenUnmarr ied Men

Voted in person

Voted by mail

Q13-18 Summary FavorabilityTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)

Very Fav 33 33 31 42 37 40 35 36 38 29 30 36 31Very Unfav 21 27 11 17 19 18 14 26 13 27 15 20 26Total Fav 63 59 72 69 59 65 69 60 69 59 70 66 57Total Unfav 33 38 26 26 33 28 27 38 27 38 27 30 40ID 97 97 98 95 91 94 96 98 96 97 97 96 98Don't ID 3 3 2 5 9 6 4 2 4 3 3 4 2Fav - Unfav 30 21 46 44 26 37 43 21 42 21 44 36 17

Very Fav 18 16 15 28 30 29 20 16 22 16 18 16 21Very Unfav 29 35 14 23 36 28 19 30 17 41 22 26 35Total Fav 44 43 42 59 46 54 47 46 49 40 43 47 42Total Unfav 41 47 28 33 42 37 31 43 30 52 33 37 48ID 86 91 73 92 91 92 80 90 81 92 78 85 92Don't ID 14 9 27 8 9 8 20 10 19 8 22 15 8Fav - Unfav 4 -5 14 25 4 17 15 3 20 -12 10 10 -6

Very Fav 12 12 8 14 20 16 11 11 12 14 10 11 13Very Unfav 24 29 12 24 28 25 17 28 17 29 18 21 30Total Fav 40 40 37 47 46 47 41 39 44 41 37 40 43Total Unfav 41 46 32 40 41 41 35 46 33 45 37 41 44ID 84 88 72 90 89 89 79 88 80 89 76 84 89Don't ID 16 12 28 10 11 11 21 12 20 11 24 16 11Fav - Unfav -1 -6 6 7 5 6 6 -7 10 -4 0 -1 -1

Very Fav 9 11 5 6 7 6 6 11 4 11 8 8 11Very Unfav 17 18 9 29 24 27 16 19 16 18 16 19 18Total Fav 24 29 16 16 21 18 17 27 15 30 19 20 30Total Unfav 29 32 17 41 33 38 25 33 26 32 24 32 31ID 59 66 43 63 59 61 50 65 52 67 47 59 65Don't ID 41 34 57 37 41 39 50 35 48 33 53 41 35Fav - Unfav -5 -4 -1 -25 -12 -20 -8 -6 -11 -2 -5 -12 -1

Very Fav 10 12 6 8 6 8 7 11 5 13 9 9 10Very Unfav 26 26 24 31 35 32 27 25 31 26 23 28 28Total Fav 33 36 30 25 27 26 28 34 26 37 32 30 36Total Unfav 44 43 42 51 47 49 45 44 47 43 42 47 44ID 81 82 76 81 80 81 78 82 78 83 79 82 83Don't ID 19 18 24 19 20 19 22 18 22 17 21 18 17Fav - Unfav -11 -8 -12 -26 -20 -24 -16 -10 -21 -5 -10 -17 -7

Very Fav 16 15 10 21 33 26 16 16 19 15 12 15 18Very Unfav 20 24 11 16 24 19 14 21 11 27 19 19 23Total Fav 48 50 38 57 54 56 45 53 49 46 40 49 47Total Unfav 34 38 26 31 34 32 28 33 27 43 31 32 40ID 84 90 68 89 90 89 76 89 78 92 74 85 88Don't ID 16 10 32 11 10 11 24 11 22 8 26 15 12Fav - Unfav 13 11 12 26 20 24 16 20 22 2 10 17 6

Page 71

2008

17 Meg Whitman

18 Dianne Feinstein

13 Barack Obama

14 Barbara Boxer

15 Jerry Brown

16 Carly Fiorina

Total MARITAL MARITAL/GENDER

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Voted in person

Voted by mail A B Cell Landline Base Latino

Q13-18 Summary FavorabilityTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)

Very Fav 33 36 34 34 33 32 33 33 34Very Unfav 21 22 29 22 20 12 22 23 14Total Fav 63 63 56 62 65 76 62 61 73Total Unfav 33 34 42 36 31 23 35 36 22ID 97 97 98 97 96 100 97 97 95Don't ID 3 3 2 3 4 0 3 3 5Fav - Unfav 30 29 13 26 34 53 27 24 50

Very Fav 18 21 19 18 18 16 18 19 15Very Unfav 29 31 39 29 28 21 30 33 14Total Fav 44 51 41 42 46 53 43 44 46Total Unfav 41 42 52 41 40 31 42 45 25ID 86 94 95 85 88 84 86 89 74Don't ID 14 6 5 15 12 16 14 11 26Fav - Unfav 4 9 -12 1 6 22 1 -1 21

Very Fav 12 13 13 11 12 9 12 12 10Very Unfav 24 25 31 25 23 19 25 27 15Total Fav 40 43 44 41 39 43 40 42 35Total Unfav 41 45 45 41 42 38 42 46 26ID 84 90 91 85 84 83 84 90 65Don't ID 16 10 9 15 16 17 16 10 35Fav - Unfav -1 -3 -1 0 -2 6 -2 -4 9

Very Fav 9 7 13 8 9 7 9 10 6Very Unfav 17 25 20 17 18 15 18 20 6Total Fav 24 23 34 24 24 16 25 26 17Total Unfav 29 39 33 29 29 29 29 33 15ID 59 68 72 59 60 56 60 66 37Don't ID 41 32 28 41 40 44 40 34 63Fav - Unfav -5 -17 1 -5 -6 -13 -4 -7 2

Very Fav 10 9 12 10 9 10 10 11 4Very Unfav 26 33 28 26 26 26 26 28 19Total Fav 33 30 39 35 30 33 33 35 24Total Unfav 44 51 45 42 45 49 43 46 33ID 81 85 87 80 81 85 80 86 60Don't ID 19 15 13 20 19 15 20 14 40Fav - Unfav -11 -21 -6 -7 -14 -15 -10 -11 -10

Very Fav 16 21 18 15 16 14 16 17 11Very Unfav 20 22 25 22 18 19 20 23 9Total Fav 48 53 48 47 49 52 47 49 43Total Unfav 34 36 41 36 32 31 35 38 21ID 84 92 90 85 83 87 84 89 67Don't ID 16 8 10 15 17 13 16 11 33Fav - Unfav 13 17 6 10 17 22 12 11 22

Page 72

PHONE SAMPLE

17 Meg Whitman

18 Dianne Feinstein

13 Barack Obama

14 Barbara Boxer

15 Jerry Brown

16 Carly Fiorina

Total 2006 SPLIT

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LIKELY

Likely Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS

Reg Rep Not ID Rep

Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Mod erate

Conser vative

Q19 Governor VoteTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Brown 42 46 67 31 15 64 15 36 17 46 70 44 17Lean Brown 4 3 4 6 1 5 1 5 2 6 5 3 2Whitman 37 41 16 39 72 17 67 34 53 30 11 35 65Lean Whitman 5 3 4 7 4 4 5 7 6 4 4 5 4(Other) 2 1 1 5 1 1 3 3 7 1 2 2 2Lean (Other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Undecided) 9 5 7 11 7 8 7 15 10 12 6 9 8(Refused) 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 4 1 1 2 1Total Brown 46 49 71 36 16 68 17 41 20 51 75 48 19Total Whitman 42 44 20 46 75 21 72 40 59 34 15 40 69Total Other 2 1 1 5 1 1 3 3 7 1 2 2 3Brown-Whitman 4 5 51 -9 -60 47 -55 1 -40 17 60 8 -50

Q21 Chances of supporting BrownTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Fair chance 6 4 6 7 6 6 6 8 7 8 6 8 5Small chance 8 6 6 10 9 6 8 11 8 7 5 10 6Slight chance 10 8 6 12 12 6 12 13 14 11 6 11 10No chance 27 31 7 30 57 9 55 21 45 19 4 20 57(Don't know) 4 2 4 4 1 4 2 5 5 5 3 3 4(Refused) 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 1 0Brown Supporter 46 49 71 36 16 68 17 41 20 51 75 48 19

Q22 Chances of supporting WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Fair chance 5 4 6 3 4 4 4 6 4 2 5 6 3Small chance 8 7 8 12 5 8 5 12 9 11 7 13 3Slight chance 13 10 17 11 7 17 7 13 12 18 16 13 9No chance 29 33 45 23 8 44 9 23 11 28 54 24 12(Don't know) 4 2 4 4 1 4 2 6 4 6 3 3 3(Refused) 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 2 1 0 1 0Whitman Supporter 42 44 20 46 75 21 72 40 59 34 15 40 69

Page 73

KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYTotal PARTY ID PARTY REG

Page 74: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated Right Wrong

Q19 Governor VoteTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Brown 42 71 60 24 9 19 77 55 26 9 35 55 40Lean Brown 4 6 4 1 1 6 5 4 1 1 5 4 4Whitman 37 10 21 58 80 33 9 24 54 77 34 21 41Lean Whitman 5 5 5 7 3 6 2 5 6 3 7 10 4(Other) 2 1 0 1 2 8 1 0 2 2 3 2 2Lean (Other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Undecided) 9 5 8 8 5 25 5 10 7 5 14 8 8(Refused) 2 1 1 2 1 3 1 2 3 1 1 1 2Total Brown 46 77 64 25 10 24 81 60 27 11 41 59 44Total Whitman 42 15 26 64 82 39 12 28 61 80 40 30 45Total Other 2 1 0 1 2 8 1 0 2 3 3 2 2Brown-Whitman 4 62 38 -39 -72 -14 70 31 -34 -70 0 29 -1

Q21 Chances of supporting BrownTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Fair chance 6 6 7 8 3 9 5 7 9 4 7 8 6Small chance 8 5 7 11 6 15 4 8 12 5 11 13 7Slight chance 10 5 8 17 10 16 5 7 13 10 14 7 9No chance 27 3 10 38 71 24 3 14 37 69 21 8 31(Don't know) 4 3 4 1 1 10 2 5 1 2 6 5 3(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0Brown Supporter 46 77 64 25 10 24 81 60 27 11 41 59 44

Q22 Chances of supporting WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Fair chance 5 5 6 8 2 3 5 4 7 2 6 7 4Small chance 8 6 13 10 2 12 6 10 12 1 11 11 8Slight chance 13 15 16 9 6 16 17 17 6 7 13 20 12No chance 29 56 33 8 7 20 58 33 13 7 24 23 29(Don't know) 4 3 5 1 1 9 2 6 0 2 6 8 2(Refused) 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0Whitman Supporter 42 15 26 64 82 39 12 28 61 80 40 30 45

Page 74

Total PTY/IDEO PTYREG/IDEO STATE DIR

Page 75: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

10 8-10 6-10 0-5 0-7 BrownWhit man Und Ref

Q19 Governor VoteTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Brown 42 40 43 45 35 41 92 0 0Lean Brown 4 2 2 2 7 6 8 0 0Whitman 37 49 44 40 29 30 0 89 0Lean Whitman 5 3 4 4 7 6 0 11 0(Other) 2 0 1 1 5 3 0 0 0Lean (Other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Undecided) 9 5 6 6 14 12 0 0 85(Refused) 2 1 1 1 3 2 0 0 15Total Brown 46 41 45 48 41 47 100 0 0Total Whitman 42 52 48 44 36 36 0 100 0Total Other 2 0 1 1 6 3 0 0 0Brown-Whitman 4 -11 -3 3 5 11 100 -100 0

Q21 Chances of supporting BrownTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Fair chance 6 2 4 5 9 9 0 10 17Small chance 8 4 6 6 12 10 0 12 20Slight chance 10 7 7 9 12 13 0 18 16No chance 27 43 35 29 20 18 0 58 15(Don't know) 4 3 3 3 4 4 0 1 28(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3Brown Supporter 46 41 45 48 41 47 100 0 0

Q22 Chances of supporting WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Fair chance 5 3 4 5 5 6 8 0 11Small chance 8 4 6 7 12 11 13 0 17Slight chance 13 6 10 11 16 16 21 0 25No chance 29 31 30 30 25 26 57 0 15(Don't know) 4 3 3 3 5 4 1 0 28(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4Whitman Supporter 42 52 48 44 36 36 0 100 0

Page 75

Total ENTHUSIASM GOV VOTE

Page 76: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q19 Governor VoteTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Brown 42 97 88 90 74 0 0 0 0 94 83 0 0 30Lean Brown 4 3 12 10 26 0 0 0 0 6 17 0 0 6Whitman 37 0 0 0 0 36 47 66 88 0 0 40 82 26Lean Whitman 5 0 0 0 0 13 18 12 3 0 0 15 6 10(Other) 2 0 0 0 0 2 8 4 2 0 0 5 3 3Lean (Other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Undecided) 9 0 0 0 0 43 25 16 3 0 0 35 7 22(Refused) 2 0 0 0 0 6 2 1 3 0 0 4 2 3Total Brown 46 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 37Total Whitman 42 0 0 0 0 49 65 78 91 0 0 56 88 35Total Other 2 0 0 0 0 2 8 4 3 0 0 5 3 3Brown-Whitman 4 100 100 100 100 -49 -65 -78 -91 100 100 -56 -88 1

Q21 Chances of supporting BrownTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Fair chance 6 0 0 0 0 62 0 0 0 0 0 35 0 22Small chance 8 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 43 0 28Slight chance 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 27 0No chance 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 73 0(Don't know) 4 0 0 0 0 35 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 13(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1Brown Supporter 46 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 37

Q22 Chances of supporting WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Fair chance 5 0 0 0 82 8 3 0 0 0 34 6 0 16Small chance 8 0 0 100 0 6 16 4 0 0 58 10 1 28Slight chance 13 0 100 0 0 4 11 13 2 27 0 8 5 5No chance 29 100 0 0 0 5 4 3 6 73 0 4 5 3(Don't know) 4 0 0 0 16 26 1 2 0 0 7 15 1 12(Refused) 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 1Whitman Supporter 42 0 0 0 0 49 65 78 91 0 0 56 88 35

Page 76

Total BROWN VCS

Page 77: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q19 Governor VoteTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Brown 42 0 0 0 0 36 66 66 88 0 0 50 81 32Lean Brown 4 0 0 0 0 13 7 9 3 0 0 10 5 6Whitman 37 96 85 72 73 0 0 0 0 94 73 0 0 27Lean Whitman 5 4 15 28 27 0 0 0 0 6 27 0 0 10(Other) 2 0 0 0 0 1 5 5 3 0 0 3 3 2Lean (Other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Undecided) 9 0 0 0 0 42 20 17 4 0 0 31 8 20(Refused) 2 0 0 0 0 8 2 3 1 0 0 5 2 3Total Brown 46 0 0 0 0 49 73 75 91 0 0 61 86 38Total Whitman 42 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 37Total Other 2 0 0 0 0 1 5 5 3 0 0 3 4 2Brown-Whitman 4 -100 -100 -100 -100 49 73 75 91 -100 -100 61 86 1

Q21 Chances of supporting BrownTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Fair chance 6 0 0 0 87 10 6 2 1 0 43 8 1 21Small chance 8 0 0 100 0 3 15 7 1 0 50 9 3 24Slight chance 10 0 100 0 0 3 4 10 1 24 0 3 4 2No chance 27 100 0 0 0 3 1 4 5 76 0 2 5 1(Don't know) 4 0 0 0 13 29 1 1 1 0 6 15 1 12(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1Brown Supporter 46 0 0 0 0 49 73 75 91 0 0 61 86 38

Q22 Chances of supporting WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Fair chance 5 0 0 0 0 53 0 0 0 0 0 27 0 17Small chance 8 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 48 0 31Slight chance 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 31 0No chance 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 69 0(Don't know) 4 0 0 0 0 41 0 0 0 0 0 21 0 13(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 2Whitman Supporter 42 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 37

Page 77

Total WHITMAN VCS

Page 78: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Brown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

better

Govt back

groundBiz back ground

Brown better

Whit man

better Boxer Fiorina DK/ Ref

Q19 Governor VoteTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Brown 42 81 5 83 11 87 12 67 18 87 10 68 14 11Lean Brown 4 4 1 4 1 4 2 5 3 4 1 5 2 6Whitman 37 8 83 6 79 4 74 14 64 4 75 15 73 18Lean Whitman 5 3 5 2 5 1 6 4 6 1 6 5 4 5(Other) 2 1 2 1 1 0 2 1 3 1 1 1 3 3Lean (Other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Undecided) 9 4 3 3 3 3 4 8 6 2 5 6 4 48(Refused) 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 1 0 1 10Total Brown 46 84 6 87 12 91 13 71 21 91 12 73 16 17Total Whitman 42 11 88 8 84 5 79 18 69 5 81 20 77 23Total Other 2 1 2 1 1 0 2 1 3 1 1 1 3 3Brown-Whitman 4 73 -82 79 -72 86 -66 53 -48 85 -69 53 -61 -6

Q21 Chances of supporting BrownTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Fair chance 6 6 6 3 8 2 9 6 6 2 9 8 3 10Small chance 8 4 9 4 8 2 10 5 11 2 10 6 9 18Slight chance 10 4 15 2 15 2 15 5 14 4 14 7 14 9No chance 27 2 63 2 56 2 51 10 45 1 54 5 58 17(Don't know) 4 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 2 1 2 2 0 26(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3Brown Supporter 46 84 6 87 12 91 13 71 21 91 12 73 16 17

Q22 Chances of supporting WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Fair chance 5 5 2 6 3 4 4 6 3 6 3 5 4 9Small chance 8 11 3 11 3 12 5 10 6 10 4 10 5 8Slight chance 13 17 5 19 4 18 6 15 9 16 7 17 6 15No chance 29 54 1 54 5 59 5 47 10 62 4 45 7 17(Don't know) 4 1 0 2 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 3 1 24(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4Whitman Supporter 42 11 88 8 84 5 79 18 69 5 81 20 77 23

Page 78

ENERGY BCKGRND ECONOMY SEN VOTETotal UNDERSTAND CLEAR PLAN

Page 79: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q19 Governor VoteTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Brown 42 86 56 50 44 20 28 21 7 77 47 24 10 37Lean Brown 4 3 5 10 4 4 7 4 1 4 7 6 2 6Whitman 37 7 21 18 31 21 38 46 78 11 24 29 72 26Lean Whitman 5 2 7 14 7 5 5 6 3 3 10 5 4 8(Other) 2 1 0 2 2 0 0 5 4 0 2 0 4 1Lean (Other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Undecided) 9 2 11 7 11 38 18 17 5 5 9 29 7 17(Refused) 2 0 0 0 2 12 4 0 1 0 1 8 1 4Total Brown 46 89 61 60 48 24 35 25 9 81 54 29 12 44Total Whitman 42 8 27 32 38 26 42 53 81 14 35 34 76 34Total Other 2 1 0 2 2 0 0 5 4 0 2 0 4 1Brown-Whitman 4 80 34 28 10 -2 -8 -27 -73 66 20 -5 -64 10

Q21 Chances of supporting BrownTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Fair chance 6 3 12 14 11 15 4 2 3 6 12 10 3 11Small chance 8 1 8 14 9 8 25 20 6 3 12 16 8 13Slight chance 10 2 13 9 13 7 14 29 10 5 11 10 14 10No chance 27 4 6 4 10 11 21 23 70 4 7 16 61 10(Don't know) 4 1 1 0 9 30 1 1 2 1 4 17 2 9(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1Brown Supporter 46 89 61 60 48 24 35 25 9 81 54 29 12 44

Q22 Chances of supporting WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Fair chance 5 1 4 8 12 14 11 7 1 2 10 12 3 11Small chance 8 6 12 27 5 6 21 10 2 8 17 13 4 15Slight chance 13 9 33 19 20 7 7 22 5 16 19 7 8 14No chance 29 75 23 12 11 12 17 6 9 60 12 14 8 13(Don't know) 4 0 1 2 13 28 2 1 1 1 7 16 1 11(Refused) 0 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 2Whitman Supporter 42 8 27 32 38 26 42 53 81 14 35 34 76 34

Page 79

Total BOXER VCS

Page 80: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q19 Governor VoteTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Brown 42 7 24 34 30 42 51 83 10 36 36 73 36Lean Brown 4 1 2 8 4 8 6 3 1 6 6 4 6Whitman 37 82 58 40 24 21 21 6 78 41 22 11 26Lean Whitman 5 3 8 2 6 14 6 2 4 4 9 3 8(Other) 2 3 2 0 1 1 2 2 3 0 1 2 1Lean (Other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Undecided) 9 2 5 11 28 13 14 3 3 10 21 7 19(Refused) 2 1 0 5 7 1 0 0 1 3 4 0 4Total Brown 46 9 26 42 34 51 57 86 11 42 42 77 42Total Whitman 42 85 66 42 29 34 27 8 82 45 32 14 34Total Other 2 3 2 0 1 1 2 2 3 0 1 2 1Brown-Whitman 4 -76 -41 0 5 16 30 78 -71 -3 10 62 7

Q21 Chances of supporting BrownTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Fair chance 6 3 2 2 14 12 10 3 3 5 13 5 11Small chance 8 5 13 25 9 18 10 1 6 23 13 4 15Slight chance 10 10 31 15 9 8 14 3 13 17 9 6 10No chance 27 72 28 15 10 10 7 5 66 13 10 6 11(Don't know) 4 1 0 1 22 0 2 2 1 0 12 2 10(Refused) 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1Brown Supporter 46 9 26 42 34 51 57 86 11 42 42 77 42

Q22 Chances of supporting WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Fair chance 5 1 7 13 12 7 5 1 2 13 10 2 11Small chance 8 2 5 22 4 26 12 6 3 21 14 8 16Slight chance 13 5 17 6 16 17 33 9 6 7 16 17 15No chance 29 7 5 15 10 13 22 75 6 12 12 58 12(Don't know) 4 0 0 2 24 1 1 1 0 2 14 1 12(Refused) 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2Whitman Supporter 42 85 66 42 29 34 27 8 82 45 32 14 34

Page 80

Total FIORINA VCS

Page 81: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Support Obama

Oppose Obama

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better Favor Oppose

Impor tant

Not Impor tant

Q19 Governor VoteTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Brown 42 62 13 72 17 74 15 74 14 31 55 52 13Lean Brown 4 4 1 4 3 3 2 4 2 4 3 4 1Whitman 37 17 73 13 71 13 75 14 72 48 29 26 72Lean Whitman 5 6 3 4 3 4 3 2 5 4 5 5 4(Other) 2 1 2 0 2 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 4Lean (Other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Undecided) 9 9 6 6 4 4 3 4 4 7 5 10 4(Refused) 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 2Total Brown 46 66 14 76 19 77 17 78 16 35 58 56 14Total Whitman 42 23 76 17 74 17 78 17 77 52 34 31 76Total Other 2 2 2 0 2 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 4Brown-Whitman 4 42 -61 59 -54 60 -61 62 -61 -17 24 26 -62

Q21 Chances of supporting BrownTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Fair chance 6 6 5 7 3 7 4 5 4 7 7 7 3Small chance 8 8 8 5 8 4 7 5 7 10 6 7 9Slight chance 10 7 14 6 12 6 10 5 11 10 10 9 11No chance 27 9 58 5 56 5 62 6 61 36 18 15 61(Don't know) 4 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 4 1(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1Brown Supporter 46 66 14 76 19 77 17 78 16 35 58 56 14

Q22 Chances of supporting WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Fair chance 5 5 4 6 3 4 4 5 3 6 3 6 2Small chance 8 10 5 9 6 10 4 9 6 8 8 10 4Slight chance 13 16 6 18 8 16 7 16 6 13 13 15 5No chance 29 41 8 48 9 51 7 52 8 17 39 34 11(Don't know) 4 4 1 2 0 1 0 2 0 3 1 4 1(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1Whitman Supporter 42 23 76 17 74 17 78 17 77 52 34 31 76

Page 81

SHARE VALUES JOBS ECON PROP 23 GW IMPTTotal SENTYPE CHANGE

Page 82: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

White Black Latino Asian Men Women Men Women Men Women

Q19 Governor VoteTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Brown 42 43 35 44 44 40 44 42 44 43 45Lean Brown 4 3 7 7 2 4 4 3 3 7 6Whitman 37 41 26 26 27 39 35 41 40 30 23Lean Whitman 5 4 20 6 6 5 5 4 4 6 6(Other) 2 2 1 1 0 3 1 3 2 1 1Lean (Other) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0(Undecided) 9 6 10 15 17 8 10 6 7 13 16(Refused) 2 1 2 1 3 2 1 2 1 0 2Total Brown 46 46 42 51 46 44 47 44 47 50 52Total Whitman 42 44 45 32 34 44 40 45 44 36 30Total Other 2 2 1 1 0 3 1 3 2 2 1Brown-Whitman 4 1 -3 19 12 1 7 -1 3 14 22

Q21 Chances of supporting BrownTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Fair chance 6 5 10 5 19 7 6 5 5 7 3Small chance 8 7 12 11 12 8 7 8 6 9 13Slight chance 10 9 12 13 8 8 11 8 10 11 14No chance 27 31 17 12 11 28 25 32 31 15 10(Don't know) 4 2 7 8 5 4 3 3 1 7 8(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0Brown Supporter 46 46 42 51 46 44 47 44 47 50 52

Q22 Chances of supporting WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Fair chance 5 4 7 6 10 6 3 5 2 7 5Small chance 8 7 6 11 15 8 9 6 8 12 11Slight chance 13 10 9 21 17 12 13 11 10 20 21No chance 29 32 27 22 16 26 31 29 34 18 25(Don't know) 4 2 5 8 8 3 4 2 2 7 9(Refused) 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0Whitman Supporter 42 44 45 32 34 44 40 45 44 36 30

Page 82

WHT GEN LAT GENTotal RACE GENDER

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over

Q19 Governor VoteTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Brown 42 39 45 38 48 41 40 45Lean Brown 4 6 5 3 2 3 5 3Whitman 37 30 29 44 39 41 35 40Lean Whitman 5 11 4 5 2 3 7 3(Other) 2 2 4 1 2 2 2 2Lean (Other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Undecided) 9 11 12 9 5 7 11 6(Refused) 2 0 1 1 2 3 1 2Total Brown 46 45 50 41 50 44 45 47Total Whitman 42 41 33 49 41 44 41 42Total Other 2 3 4 1 2 2 2 2Brown-Whitman 4 4 17 -8 9 -1 4 5

Q21 Chances of supporting BrownTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Fair chance 6 12 4 8 4 4 8 4Small chance 8 13 13 7 4 5 11 4Slight chance 10 18 8 8 9 6 11 8No chance 27 8 18 33 30 39 20 33(Don't know) 4 4 7 3 2 3 4 2(Refused) 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1Brown Supporter 46 45 50 41 50 44 45 47

Q22 Chances of supporting WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Fair chance 5 8 8 4 3 3 6 3Small chance 8 12 11 9 6 5 11 6Slight chance 13 17 20 10 11 8 16 10No chance 29 19 21 26 35 37 22 35(Don't know) 4 3 7 2 3 3 4 3(Refused) 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1Whitman Supporter 42 41 33 49 41 44 41 42

Page 83

Total AGE

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over 18-29 30-4950 and

over 18-4950 and

over

Q19 Governor VoteTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Brown 42 36 45 41 48 40 41 45 42 41 53 42 53Lean Brown 4 5 3 2 2 2 3 2 8 9 3 8 3Whitman 37 37 32 48 40 44 40 42 25 26 27 26 27Lean Whitman 5 14 2 1 2 3 5 3 8 6 3 7 3(Other) 2 4 6 0 2 2 3 2 1 0 1 0 1Lean (Other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0(Undecided) 9 4 10 8 3 7 8 5 15 16 10 16 10(Refused) 2 0 1 0 2 2 0 2 0 2 1 1 1Total Brown 46 40 48 43 50 42 44 47 50 50 56 50 56Total Whitman 42 51 34 49 43 47 45 44 33 32 31 33 31Total Other 2 4 6 0 2 2 3 2 2 0 2 1 2Brown-Whitman 4 -10 13 -6 8 -5 -1 2 16 18 26 17 26

Q21 Chances of supporting BrownTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Fair chance 6 10 3 5 5 4 5 4 9 2 3 6 3Small chance 8 13 17 5 4 4 11 4 13 11 7 12 7Slight chance 10 24 5 9 9 6 11 7 15 10 12 13 12No chance 27 10 25 37 31 41 26 35 7 13 18 10 18(Don't know) 4 2 3 2 1 2 2 1 6 13 4 9 4(Refused) 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0Brown Supporter 46 40 48 43 50 42 44 47 50 50 56 50 56

Q22 Chances of supporting WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Fair chance 5 6 6 5 3 1 5 2 9 4 5 7 5Small chance 8 7 15 8 6 5 10 5 12 10 12 11 12Slight chance 13 10 20 9 10 7 13 9 24 19 17 22 17No chance 29 24 22 28 36 37 25 36 17 22 30 19 30(Don't know) 4 2 3 1 2 2 2 2 5 13 6 9 6(Refused) 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0Whitman Supporter 42 51 34 49 43 47 45 44 33 32 31 33 31

Page 84

Total WHT AGE LAT AGE

Page 85: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Young Women

Young Men

Older Women

Older Men

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Q19 Governor VoteTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Brown 42 42 38 46 44 34 37 46 52 36 49Lean Brown 4 4 5 3 2 8 5 2 1 6 2Whitman 37 33 36 38 42 35 36 38 38 36 38Lean Whitman 5 7 7 3 2 4 7 4 2 6 3(Other) 2 0 4 2 1 2 3 1 1 3 1Lean (Other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Undecided) 9 13 8 6 6 15 9 8 5 11 6(Refused) 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 1Total Brown 46 46 44 49 46 42 42 48 53 42 50Total Whitman 42 40 43 41 44 39 43 43 40 42 42Total Other 2 0 4 2 1 2 4 1 1 3 1Brown-Whitman 4 6 1 8 2 3 -1 5 13 0 9

Q21 Chances of supporting BrownTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Fair chance 6 8 9 4 4 6 9 6 3 8 5Small chance 8 9 12 5 4 9 9 9 5 9 7Slight chance 10 14 9 8 7 11 11 10 7 11 9No chance 27 18 22 32 35 24 26 26 29 25 28(Don't know) 4 5 4 2 3 7 4 2 3 5 2(Refused) 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0Brown Supporter 46 46 44 49 46 42 42 48 53 42 50

Q22 Chances of supporting WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Fair chance 5 4 9 2 3 5 6 4 3 6 3Small chance 8 10 11 6 5 12 8 9 5 10 7Slight chance 13 18 13 9 10 16 14 11 11 15 11No chance 29 24 20 38 33 20 24 32 38 23 35(Don't know) 4 4 4 4 2 7 4 2 3 5 2(Refused) 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 0 1 0Whitman Supporter 42 40 43 41 44 39 43 43 40 42 42

Page 85

Total GENDER/AGE EDUCATION

Page 86: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Non College College

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Q19 Governor VoteTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Brown 42 28 38 46 53 35 49 42 50 35 45 37 52Lean Brown 4 6 3 2 1 4 2 9 1 6 2 6 1Whitman 37 50 42 37 38 45 38 23 36 39 40 33 37Lean Whitman 5 3 4 5 2 4 3 8 1 5 4 7 3(Other) 2 3 5 1 1 4 1 0 1 4 1 2 1Lean (Other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0(Undecided) 9 8 7 7 4 7 6 16 9 9 6 13 6(Refused) 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 0 2 1 2 1Total Brown 46 34 40 49 54 38 51 51 52 41 47 43 53Total Whitman 42 53 46 43 40 48 41 31 37 44 44 40 40Total Other 2 3 5 1 1 4 1 1 1 5 1 2 1Brown-Whitman 4 -19 -6 6 14 -10 10 20 14 -2 3 3 14

Q21 Chances of supporting BrownTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Fair chance 6 7 5 5 3 6 4 6 2 7 6 8 4Small chance 8 8 7 8 4 7 7 12 9 9 7 9 6Slight chance 10 7 11 9 8 10 9 14 10 10 7 11 10No chance 27 42 33 27 29 36 28 8 24 27 30 24 26(Don't know) 4 1 2 1 2 2 2 9 3 5 3 5 2(Refused) 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0Brown Supporter 46 34 40 49 54 38 51 51 52 41 47 43 53

Q22 Chances of supporting WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Fair chance 5 3 5 3 3 4 3 7 4 9 3 3 4Small chance 8 6 8 9 5 8 7 14 2 9 7 10 7Slight chance 13 14 11 9 10 12 10 22 18 13 12 16 10No chance 29 19 27 34 40 25 37 18 32 20 31 25 38(Don't know) 4 3 2 1 2 2 2 8 7 4 3 5 2(Refused) 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0Whitman Supporter 42 53 46 43 40 48 41 31 37 44 44 40 40

Page 86

GENDER/EDUCTotal WHT EDUC LAT EDUC

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Q19 Governor VoteTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Brown 42 35 46 34 52 34 48 39 50 31 48 37 51Lean Brown 4 3 2 4 2 8 1 3 2 5 2 2 2Whitman 37 45 39 44 37 32 37 40 39 45 36 45 39Lean Whitman 5 3 5 5 2 9 4 3 2 5 5 3 2(Other) 2 7 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 7 1 3 1Lean (Other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Undecided) 9 5 6 8 6 13 8 7 5 7 8 6 4(Refused) 2 3 1 2 0 0 1 4 1 0 1 4 1Total Brown 46 38 48 38 54 42 49 43 52 37 50 39 53Total Whitman 42 48 43 49 40 41 42 44 41 50 41 48 41Total Other 2 7 1 3 1 4 1 3 1 7 1 3 1Brown-Whitman 4 -9 5 -11 14 1 7 -1 11 -13 9 -9 11

Q21 Chances of supporting BrownTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Fair chance 6 4 5 7 3 10 6 5 3 7 4 6 4Small chance 8 8 8 7 6 12 10 5 4 13 10 4 4Slight chance 10 8 7 11 10 13 9 7 9 13 9 6 8No chance 27 36 29 36 27 17 24 36 31 29 24 41 31(Don't know) 4 3 3 2 1 6 3 4 1 1 3 2 0(Refused) 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0Brown Supporter 46 38 48 38 54 42 49 43 52 37 50 39 53

Q22 Chances of supporting WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Fair chance 5 7 3 1 3 8 4 3 3 7 4 2 2Small chance 8 6 7 9 8 11 10 8 4 8 11 7 4Slight chance 13 11 11 12 8 18 13 11 9 16 11 9 9No chance 29 24 33 26 41 17 28 29 42 18 30 28 43(Don't know) 4 2 2 2 1 5 3 5 1 1 3 3 1(Refused) 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0Whitman Supporter 42 48 43 49 40 41 42 44 41 50 41 48 41

Page 87

Total WHT GEN/EDUC AGE/EDUC WHT AGE/EDUC

Page 88: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

MemberHhold

memberNo

memberTotal Union Member

Hhold member

No member

Total Union Member

No member

Total Union

Q19 Governor VoteTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Brown 42 49 32 42 43 54 27 43 44 37 42 40Lean Brown 4 2 3 4 3 2 2 2 3 1 7 3Whitman 37 33 28 38 32 36 37 42 37 27 31 25Lean Whitman 5 5 12 4 7 0 16 3 5 17 6 11(Other) 2 1 1 2 1 0 1 3 0 3 1 1Lean (Other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Undecided) 9 10 22 7 13 8 15 5 9 15 12 19(Refused) 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 0 2 1Total Brown 46 50 36 46 46 56 29 45 47 38 48 43Total Whitman 42 38 40 42 40 36 54 45 42 44 37 35Total Other 2 1 1 2 1 0 1 3 0 3 1 1Brown-Whitman 4 12 -4 4 6 20 -25 0 5 -5 12 8

Q21 Chances of supporting BrownTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Fair chance 6 7 10 6 8 1 10 5 5 20 8 13Small chance 8 7 17 7 10 6 20 6 8 9 8 12Slight chance 10 5 13 10 8 5 16 9 8 5 11 8No chance 27 23 19 28 23 26 24 33 27 18 17 16(Don't know) 4 7 4 3 5 6 0 1 4 10 7 8(Refused) 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0Brown Supporter 46 50 36 46 46 56 29 45 47 38 48 43

Q22 Chances of supporting WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Fair chance 5 3 7 5 4 2 7 4 3 7 7 6Small chance 8 4 10 9 6 5 7 8 6 3 11 7Slight chance 13 9 12 13 11 8 8 11 9 11 17 16No chance 29 39 27 27 34 44 23 30 36 27 21 28(Don't know) 4 6 3 3 5 6 0 2 3 8 7 8(Refused) 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0Whitman Supporter 42 38 40 42 40 36 54 45 42 44 37 35

Page 88

NONWT UNIONTotal UNION WHT UNION

Page 89: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Married Single

Sep Divor ced

Wid owed

Sep Div Wid

Unmarr ied

Married Women

Unmarr ied

WomenMarried

MenUnmarr ied Men

Voted in person

Voted by mail

Q19 Governor VoteTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Brown 42 42 41 45 48 46 43 42 47 42 38 44 43Lean Brown 4 2 6 7 2 5 6 3 5 2 7 6 2Whitman 37 40 32 34 33 33 32 40 29 40 37 35 41Lean Whitman 5 4 8 1 3 2 6 4 6 4 5 5 3(Other) 2 1 3 3 1 2 3 1 2 2 4 3 1Lean (Other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Undecided) 9 8 10 9 10 9 9 9 11 7 8 6 9(Refused) 2 1 1 2 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 1 2Total Brown 46 45 46 53 50 51 48 45 51 44 45 49 45Total Whitman 42 45 39 35 35 35 38 44 35 45 41 40 43Total Other 2 1 3 3 1 2 3 1 2 2 4 3 1Brown-Whitman 4 0 7 18 14 16 11 1 16 -1 3 9 1

Q21 Chances of supporting BrownTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Fair chance 6 6 7 5 5 5 7 7 6 6 8 6 6Small chance 8 6 14 4 7 5 10 6 9 6 12 7 7Slight chance 10 8 14 10 5 8 12 9 13 7 10 10 9No chance 27 32 15 24 30 26 19 30 18 33 21 24 31(Don't know) 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 5 3 3(Refused) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0Brown Supporter 46 45 46 53 50 51 48 45 51 44 45 49 45

Q22 Chances of supporting WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Fair chance 5 4 7 1 3 2 5 4 3 5 8 5 4Small chance 8 8 10 7 7 7 9 7 10 8 8 8 7Slight chance 13 12 16 14 7 11 14 13 14 11 15 12 13No chance 29 28 24 37 43 40 30 28 34 27 24 30 30(Don't know) 4 3 3 6 2 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 3(Refused) 0 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0Whitman Supporter 42 45 39 35 35 35 38 44 35 45 41 40 43

Page 89

Total MARITAL MARITAL/GENDER 2008

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Voted in person

Voted by mail A B Cell Landline Base Latino

Q19 Governor VoteTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Brown 42 48 43 40 44 47 42 42 43Lean Brown 4 4 1 3 5 3 4 3 6Whitman 37 34 43 40 34 35 37 40 26Lean Whitman 5 3 4 4 5 6 5 4 6(Other) 2 3 0 1 3 4 2 2 0Lean (Other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Undecided) 9 6 7 10 8 4 9 7 16(Refused) 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2Total Brown 46 52 44 43 48 50 45 45 49Total Whitman 42 38 47 44 39 41 42 45 32Total Other 2 3 0 1 3 4 2 2 1Brown-Whitman 4 14 -3 -1 9 10 3 0 17

Q21 Chances of supporting BrownTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Fair chance 6 5 5 8 5 8 6 6 7Small chance 8 5 6 8 7 8 8 7 10Slight chance 10 6 9 11 9 10 10 9 11No chance 27 29 34 26 27 21 27 30 15(Don't know) 4 2 2 4 4 3 4 2 8(Refused) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Brown Supporter 46 52 44 43 48 50 45 45 49

Q22 Chances of supporting WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Fair chance 5 3 4 4 5 8 4 4 7Small chance 8 9 5 7 9 7 8 8 10Slight chance 13 10 11 14 12 13 13 11 20No chance 29 36 31 26 31 30 28 30 23(Don't know) 4 3 2 4 3 3 4 2 8(Refused) 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0Whitman Supporter 42 38 47 44 39 41 42 45 32

Page 90

PHONE SAMPLETotal 2006 SPLIT

Page 91: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LIKELY

Likely Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS

Reg Rep Not ID Rep

Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Mod erate

Conser vative

Brown Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Loyalist 26 32 43 19 6 42 7 20 8 24 52 22 9Supporter 10 8 15 7 5 14 4 8 4 14 13 10 6Conditional 6 5 6 8 3 7 3 8 5 11 6 10 2Vulnerable 4 3 7 3 2 5 3 6 3 3 5 5 3Winnable 10 6 10 12 7 10 8 14 14 12 9 11 9In Reach 8 6 6 10 9 6 8 11 8 7 5 10 6Peripheral 10 8 6 12 12 6 12 13 14 11 6 11 10Unreachable 27 31 7 30 57 9 55 21 45 19 4 20 57Loyalist/Supporter 36 40 58 25 10 57 11 28 12 38 65 32 14Conditional/Vulnerable 10 8 13 11 6 12 6 13 8 14 10 15 5Winnable/In Reach 18 12 16 22 15 17 16 25 22 19 15 21 14Peripheral/Unreachable 36 39 13 42 69 15 67 34 59 29 10 31 66Persuadable 28 20 29 33 21 28 22 38 29 33 25 36 19

Whitman Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Loyalist 24 30 6 26 53 8 51 19 40 16 3 19 53Supporter 8 7 4 9 11 4 11 9 12 8 4 10 7Conditional 5 4 3 6 7 4 5 7 3 5 5 6 5Vulnerable 5 3 6 4 4 5 4 6 5 5 4 6 4Winnable 9 6 11 8 5 9 6 12 9 9 8 10 7In Reach 8 7 8 12 5 8 5 12 9 11 7 13 3Peripheral 13 10 17 11 7 17 7 13 12 18 16 13 9Unreachable 29 33 45 23 8 44 9 23 11 28 54 24 12Loyalist/Supporter 32 37 11 36 64 12 63 27 52 24 7 28 60Conditional/Vulnerable 10 7 9 10 11 9 9 13 8 10 9 11 9Winnable/In Reach 17 13 19 20 10 17 12 24 18 20 14 24 10Peripheral/Unreachable 41 43 61 34 15 61 17 35 23 45 70 37 21Persuadable 27 20 28 30 21 27 21 38 26 31 23 35 19

Page 91

IDEOLOGYTotal PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS

Page 92: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated Right Wrong

Brown Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Loyalist 26 54 32 6 4 13 56 31 10 5 21 23 26Supporter 10 13 14 6 3 6 16 14 4 4 7 16 9Conditional 6 5 12 7 1 3 5 9 7 1 7 10 5Vulnerable 4 5 6 7 1 2 4 5 6 1 5 10 3Winnable 10 9 11 9 4 20 7 13 11 6 13 13 9In Reach 8 5 7 11 6 15 4 8 12 5 11 13 7Peripheral 10 5 8 17 10 16 5 7 13 10 14 7 9Unreachable 27 3 10 38 71 24 3 14 37 69 21 8 31Loyalist/Supporter 36 67 46 12 7 19 72 45 15 9 28 39 35Conditional/Vulnerable 10 10 18 13 2 5 9 14 12 2 13 21 9Winnable/In Reach 18 14 18 20 10 35 11 20 23 11 24 26 16Peripheral/Unreachable 36 9 18 54 80 40 8 20 50 79 36 15 40Persuadable 28 24 36 34 12 40 20 35 35 13 36 47 25

Whitman Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Loyalist 24 2 9 35 66 19 2 13 35 64 18 8 28Supporter 8 4 6 14 8 11 3 4 13 9 10 6 7Conditional 5 4 4 9 5 5 3 4 8 4 6 10 5Vulnerable 5 4 7 6 3 4 3 8 5 3 6 7 5Winnable 9 8 11 10 3 13 7 11 8 4 12 15 7In Reach 8 6 13 10 2 12 6 10 12 1 11 11 8Peripheral 13 15 16 9 6 16 17 17 6 7 13 20 12Unreachable 29 56 33 8 7 20 58 33 13 7 24 23 29Loyalist/Supporter 32 6 15 49 75 30 6 17 48 73 28 13 35Conditional/Vulnerable 10 9 11 15 8 9 6 11 13 7 12 17 9Winnable/In Reach 17 14 24 19 5 25 13 22 20 6 23 26 14Peripheral/Unreachable 41 71 50 16 13 36 76 50 19 14 37 43 41Persuadable 27 23 35 34 13 34 19 33 33 13 35 43 24

Page 92

Total PTY/IDEO PTYREG/IDEO STATE DIR

Page 93: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

10 8-10 6-10 0-5 0-7 BrownWhit man Und Ref

Brown Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Loyalist 26 30 29 28 20 23 57 0 0Supporter 10 4 8 10 10 11 21 0 0Conditional 6 3 4 5 9 8 13 0 0Vulnerable 4 4 4 4 4 5 9 0 0Winnable 10 5 8 9 14 13 0 12 48In Reach 8 4 6 6 12 10 0 12 20Peripheral 10 7 7 9 12 13 0 18 16Unreachable 27 43 35 29 20 18 0 58 15Loyalist/Supporter 36 34 37 38 29 34 78 0 0Conditional/Vulnerable 10 7 8 10 12 13 22 0 0Winnable/In Reach 18 9 13 15 26 23 0 24 68Peripheral/Unreachable 36 50 42 38 33 31 0 76 32Persuadable 28 16 21 24 38 36 22 24 68

Whitman Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Loyalist 24 42 33 28 15 15 0 58 0Supporter 8 6 6 8 8 9 0 18 0Conditional 5 3 4 4 7 6 0 12 0Vulnerable 5 2 4 5 6 6 0 12 0Winnable 9 7 7 8 11 11 9 0 43In Reach 8 4 6 7 12 11 13 0 17Peripheral 13 6 10 11 16 16 21 0 25Unreachable 29 31 30 30 25 26 57 0 15Loyalist/Supporter 32 48 39 36 23 24 0 76 0Conditional/Vulnerable 10 5 8 9 13 12 0 24 0Winnable/In Reach 17 11 12 15 23 22 22 0 60Peripheral/Unreachable 41 37 40 41 42 42 78 0 40Persuadable 27 15 21 24 36 34 22 24 60

Page 93

Total ENTHUSIASM GOV VOTE

Page 94: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Brown Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Loyalist 26 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 73 0 0 0 0Supporter 10 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 0 0 0 0Conditional 6 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 58 0 0 21Vulnerable 4 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 42 0 0 15Winnable 10 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 57 0 36In Reach 8 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 43 0 28Peripheral 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 27 0Unreachable 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 73 0Loyalist/Supporter 36 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0Conditional/Vulnerable 10 0 0 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 37Winnable/In Reach 18 0 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 0 63Peripheral/Unreachable 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 0 100 0Persuadable 28 0 0 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 100 100 0 100

Whitman Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Loyalist 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 91 0 0 0 67 0Supporter 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 78 0 0 0 0 21 0Conditional 5 0 0 0 0 0 65 0 0 0 0 28 0 18Vulnerable 5 0 0 0 0 49 0 0 0 0 0 28 0 17Winnable 9 0 0 0 100 37 4 2 1 0 42 22 1 29In Reach 8 0 0 100 0 6 16 4 0 0 58 10 1 28Peripheral 13 0 100 0 0 4 11 13 2 27 0 8 5 5Unreachable 29 100 0 0 0 5 4 3 6 73 0 4 5 3Loyalist/Supporter 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 78 91 0 0 0 88 0Conditional/Vulnerable 10 0 0 0 0 49 65 0 0 0 0 56 0 35Winnable/In Reach 17 0 0 100 100 42 20 6 1 0 100 33 2 57Peripheral/Unreachable 41 100 100 0 0 9 15 16 8 100 0 12 10 7Persuadable 27 0 0 100 100 91 85 6 1 0 100 88 2 93

Page 94

Total BROWN VCS

Page 95: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Brown Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Loyalist 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 91 0 0 0 63 0Supporter 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 75 0 0 0 0 23 0Conditional 6 0 0 0 0 0 73 0 0 0 0 35 0 22Vulnerable 4 0 0 0 0 49 0 0 0 0 0 25 0 16Winnable 10 0 0 0 100 42 7 4 2 0 50 25 2 34In Reach 8 0 0 100 0 3 15 7 1 0 50 9 3 24Peripheral 10 0 100 0 0 3 4 10 1 24 0 3 4 2Unreachable 27 100 0 0 0 3 1 4 5 76 0 2 5 1Loyalist/Supporter 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 75 91 0 0 0 86 0Conditional/Vulnerable 10 0 0 0 0 49 73 0 0 0 0 61 0 38Winnable/In Reach 18 0 0 100 100 46 22 11 3 0 100 34 5 59Peripheral/Unreachable 36 100 100 0 0 5 5 14 6 100 0 5 9 3Persuadable 28 0 0 100 100 95 95 11 3 0 100 95 5 97

Whitman Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Loyalist 24 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 76 0 0 0 0Supporter 8 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 0 0 0 0Conditional 5 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 0 0 19Vulnerable 5 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 50 0 0 18Winnable 9 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 52 0 33In Reach 8 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 48 0 31Peripheral 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 31 0Unreachable 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 69 0Loyalist/Supporter 32 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0Conditional/Vulnerable 10 0 0 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 37Winnable/In Reach 17 0 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 0 63Peripheral/Unreachable 41 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 0 100 0Persuadable 27 0 0 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 100 100 0 100

Page 95

Total WHITMAN VCS

Page 96: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Brown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

better

Govt back

groundBiz back ground

Brown better

Whit man

better Boxer Fiorina DK/ Ref

Brown Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Loyalist 26 52 1 54 5 58 4 45 8 60 3 44 6 9Supporter 10 16 3 18 2 17 4 13 6 15 4 15 4 3Conditional 6 10 1 9 3 11 3 8 4 8 3 9 3 2Vulnerable 4 6 2 7 3 5 3 5 3 7 2 5 3 3Winnable 10 7 7 4 9 3 10 9 9 3 11 10 4 39In Reach 8 4 9 4 8 2 10 5 11 2 10 6 9 18Peripheral 10 4 15 2 15 2 15 5 14 4 14 7 14 9Unreachable 27 2 63 2 56 2 51 10 45 1 54 5 58 17Loyalist/Supporter 36 68 4 72 7 75 7 58 14 75 7 59 9 12Conditional/Vulnerable 10 16 3 16 5 16 6 14 7 15 5 14 6 5Winnable/In Reach 18 11 16 8 18 5 21 14 20 5 20 16 12 57Peripheral/Unreachable 36 5 78 5 70 4 66 15 59 5 68 12 72 26Persuadable 28 27 18 23 23 22 27 27 27 20 25 30 19 62

Whitman Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Loyalist 24 1 61 2 55 2 49 8 43 1 52 4 55 12Supporter 8 3 14 1 14 1 14 4 12 2 13 5 12 2Conditional 5 3 7 2 7 1 8 3 8 1 8 4 6 4Vulnerable 5 4 6 3 8 2 8 4 7 2 8 7 3 5Winnable 9 7 2 7 4 6 4 9 6 7 4 7 4 37In Reach 8 11 3 11 3 12 5 10 6 10 4 10 5 8Peripheral 13 17 5 19 4 18 6 15 9 16 7 17 6 15Unreachable 29 54 1 54 5 59 5 47 10 62 4 45 7 17Loyalist/Supporter 32 4 75 3 69 2 63 12 55 3 65 9 68 14Conditional/Vulnerable 10 7 13 5 15 3 16 6 15 3 16 11 9 9Winnable/In Reach 17 18 5 18 7 18 9 20 12 17 8 18 10 46Peripheral/Unreachable 41 71 7 74 9 77 12 62 19 78 12 62 14 31Persuadable 27 25 18 23 22 21 25 26 26 19 23 28 19 55

Page 96

ENERGY BCKGRND ECONOMY SEN VOTETotal UNDERSTAND CLEAR PLAN

Page 97: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Brown Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Loyalist 26 74 21 11 10 8 13 4 5 58 10 10 5 10Supporter 10 9 27 18 17 4 2 12 2 14 17 3 4 11Conditional 6 5 10 23 4 5 10 5 1 7 14 7 2 11Vulnerable 4 2 4 8 18 7 10 4 1 2 13 8 2 11Winnable 10 5 13 14 20 50 5 3 5 7 17 29 5 22In Reach 8 1 8 14 9 8 25 20 6 3 12 16 8 13Peripheral 10 2 13 9 13 7 14 29 10 5 11 10 14 10Unreachable 27 4 6 4 10 11 21 23 70 4 7 16 61 10Loyalist/Supporter 36 82 47 28 27 12 15 16 7 72 27 13 9 22Conditional/Vulnerable 10 7 14 32 21 12 20 9 2 9 27 16 3 22Winnable/In Reach 18 6 21 28 29 58 30 22 11 10 28 45 13 35Peripheral/Unreachable 36 5 18 13 23 18 35 52 81 9 17 26 75 21Persuadable 28 12 34 59 50 70 50 32 13 19 55 61 16 57

Whitman Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Loyalist 24 3 5 4 8 6 18 22 66 4 6 12 57 8Supporter 8 1 9 7 10 6 9 21 9 4 9 8 11 8Conditional 5 1 4 12 8 7 14 8 4 2 10 10 5 10Vulnerable 5 3 9 9 12 7 1 2 3 5 10 4 3 8Winnable 9 2 5 10 26 48 13 9 3 3 18 32 4 24In Reach 8 6 12 27 5 6 21 10 2 8 17 13 4 15Peripheral 13 9 33 19 20 7 7 22 5 16 19 7 8 14Unreachable 29 75 23 12 11 12 17 6 9 60 12 14 8 13Loyalist/Supporter 32 4 14 11 18 12 28 43 74 7 14 20 68 17Conditional/Vulnerable 10 4 13 21 19 14 15 10 7 7 20 14 8 18Winnable/In Reach 17 8 17 37 32 54 34 19 5 10 35 45 8 39Peripheral/Unreachable 41 84 56 31 31 20 24 29 14 75 31 21 17 27Persuadable 27 12 30 58 51 68 49 29 12 17 55 59 15 56

Page 97

Total BOXER VCS

Page 98: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Brown Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Loyalist 26 5 5 15 9 9 19 72 5 10 9 55 9Supporter 10 2 13 2 11 15 24 8 4 4 13 13 11Conditional 6 1 4 12 2 20 10 5 1 14 10 6 11Vulnerable 4 1 3 13 12 7 4 1 1 13 10 2 11Winnable 10 4 2 3 38 12 12 5 4 5 26 7 22In Reach 8 5 13 25 9 18 10 1 6 23 13 4 15Peripheral 10 10 31 15 9 8 14 3 13 17 9 6 10Unreachable 27 72 28 15 10 10 7 5 66 13 10 6 11Loyalist/Supporter 36 7 18 17 20 24 43 80 8 15 22 68 20Conditional/Vulnerable 10 2 8 25 15 27 14 6 3 27 20 9 21Winnable/In Reach 18 9 16 28 47 31 22 6 10 28 39 11 37Peripheral/Unreachable 36 83 59 30 19 19 21 8 79 31 19 12 21Persuadable 28 11 23 53 61 57 36 12 13 55 59 20 59

Whitman Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Loyalist 24 69 25 14 6 9 6 3 63 12 8 4 8Supporter 8 9 28 11 7 6 9 1 12 14 7 4 8Conditional 5 4 11 16 6 11 4 1 5 16 8 2 10Vulnerable 5 3 2 1 10 7 8 3 3 3 9 5 8Winnable 9 2 7 15 40 9 6 2 3 16 26 3 24In Reach 8 2 5 22 4 26 12 6 3 21 14 8 16Peripheral 13 5 17 6 16 17 33 9 6 7 16 17 15Unreachable 29 7 5 15 10 13 22 75 6 12 12 58 12Loyalist/Supporter 32 78 53 25 13 16 15 4 74 26 14 8 17Conditional/Vulnerable 10 7 13 17 16 19 12 4 8 19 17 7 18Winnable/In Reach 17 4 12 37 45 35 18 8 5 36 40 11 40Peripheral/Unreachable 41 11 21 21 26 30 55 84 13 18 28 75 26Persuadable 27 11 25 54 60 54 30 12 13 55 57 18 57

Page 98

Total FIORINA VCS

Page 99: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Support Obama

Oppose Obama

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better Favor Oppose

Impor tant

Not Impor tant

Brown Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Loyalist 26 39 5 46 8 49 6 51 6 14 38 32 8Supporter 10 14 3 15 5 14 4 14 4 9 11 12 3Conditional 6 8 3 8 4 9 3 8 4 6 7 8 1Vulnerable 4 5 3 6 3 5 4 6 3 6 3 5 2Winnable 10 10 6 8 4 8 4 6 6 9 8 12 5In Reach 8 8 8 5 8 4 7 5 7 10 6 7 9Peripheral 10 7 14 6 12 6 10 5 11 10 10 9 11Unreachable 27 9 58 5 56 5 62 6 61 36 18 15 61Loyalist/Supporter 36 52 8 62 12 63 10 65 10 23 49 44 11Conditional/Vulnerable 10 13 6 14 7 14 7 13 6 12 9 13 3Winnable/In Reach 18 18 14 13 12 12 11 12 13 19 14 19 14Peripheral/Unreachable 36 16 72 11 68 11 72 10 71 46 27 25 72Persuadable 28 31 20 28 19 26 18 25 19 31 23 32 17

Whitman Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Loyalist 24 8 54 4 54 4 60 5 58 33 17 14 57Supporter 8 5 12 4 10 5 9 3 10 8 8 7 10Conditional 5 5 5 3 6 3 6 4 5 6 5 5 6Vulnerable 5 5 4 6 3 5 3 5 4 5 5 6 3Winnable 9 9 5 8 4 6 5 7 3 10 5 10 4In Reach 8 10 5 9 6 10 4 9 6 8 8 10 4Peripheral 13 16 6 18 8 16 7 16 6 13 13 15 5Unreachable 29 41 8 48 9 51 7 52 8 17 39 34 11Loyalist/Supporter 32 13 67 8 65 9 68 8 68 41 25 20 67Conditional/Vulnerable 10 10 9 9 9 8 10 8 9 11 9 10 9Winnable/In Reach 17 20 11 17 10 16 8 16 9 18 13 20 8Peripheral/Unreachable 41 57 14 66 17 67 14 68 13 30 52 50 17Persuadable 27 30 20 26 19 24 18 24 19 29 23 30 17

Page 99

SHARE VALUES JOBS ECON PROP 23 GW IMPTTotal SENTYPE CHANGE

Page 100: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

White Black Latino Asian Men Women Men Women Men Women

Brown Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Loyalist 26 29 23 20 13 23 28 26 32 16 23Supporter 10 8 7 15 15 10 9 10 7 15 14Conditional 6 5 4 9 9 6 6 4 6 10 8Vulnerable 4 3 7 7 9 5 3 4 2 9 7Winnable 10 7 18 13 24 11 10 8 6 15 12In Reach 8 7 12 11 12 8 7 8 6 9 13Peripheral 10 9 12 13 8 8 11 8 10 11 14Unreachable 27 31 17 12 11 28 25 32 31 15 10Loyalist/Supporter 36 37 31 35 29 33 37 36 38 31 37Conditional/Vulnerable 10 8 11 16 17 11 10 8 8 19 15Winnable/In Reach 18 14 29 24 35 19 17 16 12 23 24Peripheral/Unreachable 36 40 29 25 19 37 36 40 41 27 24Persuadable 28 22 41 40 53 30 27 24 20 42 39

Whitman Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Loyalist 24 29 14 11 8 26 23 29 28 14 8Supporter 8 8 9 8 6 7 9 7 9 5 10Conditional 5 4 12 8 4 6 4 6 3 8 7Vulnerable 5 3 11 6 16 5 5 3 3 9 4Winnable 9 6 12 14 17 10 7 8 4 14 14In Reach 8 7 6 11 15 8 9 6 8 12 11Peripheral 13 10 9 21 17 12 13 11 10 20 21Unreachable 29 32 27 22 16 26 31 29 34 18 25Loyalist/Supporter 32 37 23 19 14 33 31 36 37 19 18Conditional/Vulnerable 10 8 22 14 20 11 9 9 7 17 11Winnable/In Reach 17 13 18 25 33 18 16 15 12 27 24Peripheral/Unreachable 41 42 37 42 33 38 44 40 44 38 46Persuadable 27 21 41 39 53 29 25 23 19 43 36

Page 100

WHT GEN LAT GENTotal RACE GENDER

Page 101: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over

Brown Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Loyalist 26 16 20 24 33 32 20 33Supporter 10 13 15 8 9 5 12 7Conditional 6 10 6 7 5 4 8 5Vulnerable 4 7 9 2 3 3 6 3Winnable 10 16 11 11 7 8 13 7In Reach 8 13 13 7 4 5 11 4Peripheral 10 18 8 8 9 6 11 8Unreachable 27 8 18 33 30 39 20 33Loyalist/Supporter 36 29 35 32 42 37 32 40Conditional/Vulnerable 10 16 15 9 9 6 13 8Winnable/In Reach 18 28 24 19 11 12 23 12Peripheral/Unreachable 36 27 26 41 39 44 32 41Persuadable 28 44 39 28 19 19 37 19

Whitman Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Loyalist 24 7 16 31 28 34 18 30Supporter 8 14 7 7 8 4 9 6Conditional 5 10 6 5 2 3 7 3Vulnerable 5 10 4 6 3 4 7 3Winnable 9 11 15 6 7 7 10 7In Reach 8 12 11 9 6 5 11 6Peripheral 13 17 20 10 11 8 16 10Unreachable 29 19 21 26 35 37 22 35Loyalist/Supporter 32 21 23 38 35 38 28 37Conditional/Vulnerable 10 20 10 11 6 6 14 6Winnable/In Reach 17 23 26 15 13 11 21 12Peripheral/Unreachable 41 36 41 36 46 44 38 45Persuadable 27 44 35 26 19 18 35 18

Page 101

Total AGE

Page 102: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over 18-29 30-4950 and

over 18-4950 and

over

Brown Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Loyalist 26 21 19 27 34 32 23 33 14 21 28 17 28Supporter 10 9 16 8 8 4 11 6 16 15 13 16 13Conditional 6 7 8 6 5 4 7 4 10 8 8 9 8Vulnerable 4 4 6 2 3 1 4 2 9 6 7 8 7Winnable 10 13 6 6 6 7 8 7 15 15 7 15 7In Reach 8 13 17 5 4 4 11 4 13 11 7 12 7Peripheral 10 24 5 9 9 6 11 7 15 10 12 13 12Unreachable 27 10 25 37 31 41 26 35 7 13 18 10 18Loyalist/Supporter 36 29 35 36 42 37 34 40 30 36 42 33 42Conditional/Vulnerable 10 11 13 8 8 5 10 7 20 15 15 17 15Winnable/In Reach 18 26 23 11 10 11 19 10 28 26 14 27 14Peripheral/Unreachable 36 34 30 45 40 47 37 43 23 23 29 23 29Persuadable 28 37 36 19 18 16 29 17 47 41 29 44 29

Whitman Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Loyalist 24 7 22 36 29 37 24 33 6 13 15 9 15Supporter 8 23 5 7 8 4 10 6 8 7 8 8 8Conditional 5 13 7 4 2 2 7 2 11 6 4 8 4Vulnerable 5 8 1 2 4 3 3 3 8 6 4 7 4Winnable 9 8 9 6 6 5 7 5 14 17 10 15 10In Reach 8 7 15 8 6 5 10 5 12 10 12 11 12Peripheral 13 10 20 9 10 7 13 9 24 19 17 22 17Unreachable 29 24 22 28 36 37 25 36 17 22 30 19 30Loyalist/Supporter 32 30 27 43 37 41 34 39 14 20 22 17 22Conditional/Vulnerable 10 21 8 6 6 6 10 6 19 12 8 16 8Winnable/In Reach 17 15 24 13 12 9 17 11 26 27 23 26 23Peripheral/Unreachable 41 34 41 38 46 44 38 45 41 41 47 41 47Persuadable 27 37 32 19 17 15 28 16 44 39 31 42 31

Page 102

Total WHT AGE LAT AGE

Page 103: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Young Women

Young Men

Older Women

Older Men

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Brown Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Loyalist 26 22 17 34 31 17 21 30 36 20 33Supporter 10 13 11 5 9 10 11 8 10 10 9Conditional 6 8 7 5 4 9 5 6 4 7 5Vulnerable 4 3 8 4 2 6 5 3 3 5 3Winnable 10 13 13 6 8 14 13 8 6 13 7In Reach 8 9 12 5 4 9 9 9 5 9 7Peripheral 10 14 9 8 7 11 11 10 7 11 9Unreachable 27 18 22 32 35 24 26 26 29 25 28Loyalist/Supporter 36 35 28 40 40 27 32 38 46 30 42Conditional/Vulnerable 10 11 16 9 6 15 10 9 8 12 9Winnable/In Reach 18 22 25 11 12 23 21 16 11 22 14Peripheral/Unreachable 36 32 31 40 42 35 37 36 36 36 36Persuadable 28 33 41 20 18 38 31 26 18 34 22

Whitman Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Loyalist 24 17 20 29 33 22 23 25 28 22 26Supporter 8 11 7 6 6 6 9 8 6 8 7Conditional 5 5 9 3 2 5 5 6 4 5 5Vulnerable 5 7 7 3 4 6 7 5 2 6 3Winnable 9 8 13 6 7 13 10 5 7 11 6In Reach 8 10 11 6 5 12 8 9 5 10 7Peripheral 13 18 13 9 10 16 14 11 11 15 11Unreachable 29 24 20 38 33 20 24 32 38 23 35Loyalist/Supporter 32 28 27 35 39 28 32 33 34 30 33Conditional/Vulnerable 10 12 16 6 6 11 12 10 6 12 8Winnable/In Reach 17 18 24 13 12 25 18 14 11 21 13Peripheral/Unreachable 41 41 33 47 44 36 38 43 49 37 46Persuadable 27 30 40 19 18 37 30 24 17 32 21

Page 103

Total GENDER/AGE EDUCATION

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Non College College

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Brown Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Loyalist 26 17 24 32 38 22 35 16 30 18 29 21 37Supporter 10 9 8 7 10 8 8 16 13 10 10 11 7Conditional 6 5 5 7 4 5 6 11 2 6 5 7 6Vulnerable 4 2 3 3 2 3 3 8 7 7 3 3 3Winnable 10 10 8 7 5 9 6 15 5 13 9 14 5In Reach 8 8 7 8 4 7 7 12 9 9 7 9 6Peripheral 10 7 11 9 8 10 9 14 10 10 7 11 10Unreachable 27 42 33 27 29 36 28 8 24 27 30 24 26Loyalist/Supporter 36 27 32 39 48 30 43 32 43 28 39 32 44Conditional/Vulnerable 10 7 8 10 6 8 8 19 9 13 8 11 9Winnable/In Reach 18 18 16 15 9 16 13 27 14 22 16 22 11Peripheral/Unreachable 36 48 44 36 37 45 36 22 34 37 37 35 36Persuadable 28 25 24 25 16 24 21 46 23 35 24 33 20

Whitman Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Loyalist 24 39 29 25 28 32 26 7 23 25 28 20 25Supporter 8 5 9 8 7 8 8 9 5 7 6 9 8Conditional 5 4 4 6 4 4 5 8 7 5 6 5 4Vulnerable 5 5 4 3 1 4 3 7 3 6 4 7 3Winnable 9 8 7 5 5 8 5 15 11 14 6 9 6In Reach 8 6 8 9 5 8 7 14 2 9 7 10 7Peripheral 13 14 11 9 10 12 10 22 18 13 12 16 10Unreachable 29 19 27 34 40 25 37 18 32 20 31 25 38Loyalist/Supporter 32 44 38 33 35 40 34 16 27 32 34 29 33Conditional/Vulnerable 10 9 8 9 5 8 7 15 10 12 10 11 7Winnable/In Reach 17 14 16 14 9 15 12 29 13 23 13 19 13Peripheral/Unreachable 41 33 38 43 51 36 47 40 50 33 43 41 48Persuadable 27 23 24 23 14 23 19 44 23 35 23 30 19

Page 104

GENDER/EDUCTotal WHT EDUC LAT EDUC

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Brown Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Loyalist 26 21 30 23 39 14 27 26 39 14 29 26 39Supporter 10 8 11 8 6 13 11 8 7 13 9 5 7Conditional 6 4 5 6 6 8 7 6 4 4 8 6 4Vulnerable 4 5 3 2 2 7 4 3 3 5 3 2 3Winnable 10 9 8 9 4 16 9 10 4 8 8 10 4In Reach 8 8 8 7 6 12 10 5 4 13 10 4 4Peripheral 10 8 7 11 10 13 9 7 9 13 9 6 8Unreachable 27 36 29 36 27 17 24 36 31 29 24 41 31Loyalist/Supporter 36 30 41 31 45 27 38 34 46 27 38 32 46Conditional/Vulnerable 10 8 8 8 9 15 11 9 6 9 11 8 6Winnable/In Reach 18 17 15 15 10 28 18 15 8 21 17 13 8Peripheral/Unreachable 36 44 36 46 37 30 33 43 40 43 33 48 39Persuadable 28 26 23 23 19 43 30 24 15 30 28 21 14

Whitman Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Loyalist 24 33 27 32 26 14 23 32 29 26 23 37 29Supporter 8 7 6 9 9 10 7 5 7 12 9 5 7Conditional 5 4 7 4 3 7 7 2 3 8 7 1 3Vulnerable 5 3 3 5 2 9 5 5 2 4 2 5 3Winnable 9 12 6 4 4 13 8 9 4 9 7 7 3In Reach 8 6 7 9 8 11 10 8 4 8 11 7 4Peripheral 13 11 11 12 8 18 13 11 9 16 11 9 9Unreachable 29 24 33 26 41 17 28 29 42 18 30 28 43Loyalist/Supporter 32 40 33 40 35 25 30 37 36 38 32 42 36Conditional/Vulnerable 10 7 10 9 5 16 11 7 5 12 9 6 6Winnable/In Reach 17 18 12 13 12 24 18 17 8 17 18 14 7Peripheral/Unreachable 41 34 45 38 49 35 41 40 51 33 41 38 51Persuadable 27 26 22 22 17 40 29 24 13 29 27 20 13

Page 105

Total WHT GEN/EDUC AGE/EDUC WHT AGE/EDUC

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

MemberHhold

memberNo

memberTotal Union Member

Hhold member

No member

Total Union Member

No member

Total Union

Brown Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Loyalist 26 38 23 24 32 43 23 27 35 27 19 24Supporter 10 7 6 10 8 7 3 9 7 6 13 10Conditional 6 3 4 7 3 4 2 6 3 3 9 4Vulnerable 4 2 3 5 3 2 1 3 2 3 8 5Winnable 10 14 16 9 13 7 12 7 9 30 15 21In Reach 8 7 17 7 10 6 20 6 8 9 8 12Peripheral 10 5 13 10 8 5 16 9 8 5 11 8Unreachable 27 23 19 28 23 26 24 33 27 18 17 16Loyalist/Supporter 36 45 29 35 40 50 26 36 42 33 32 34Conditional/Vulnerable 10 6 7 12 6 6 3 9 5 6 17 9Winnable/In Reach 18 21 33 16 23 13 32 13 17 38 23 33Peripheral/Unreachable 36 28 31 37 31 31 39 42 35 23 28 24Persuadable 28 27 40 28 29 19 35 22 22 44 40 42

Whitman Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Loyalist 24 23 17 25 22 26 24 30 26 17 15 14Supporter 8 4 6 8 6 4 9 8 6 5 7 5Conditional 5 5 12 4 7 4 18 4 7 7 6 7Vulnerable 5 6 5 5 5 2 2 3 3 14 8 10Winnable 9 10 11 9 9 7 9 6 7 15 14 14In Reach 8 4 10 9 6 5 7 8 6 3 11 7Peripheral 13 9 12 13 11 8 8 11 9 11 17 16Unreachable 29 39 27 27 34 44 23 30 36 27 21 28Loyalist/Supporter 32 27 23 33 28 30 33 38 33 22 23 18Conditional/Vulnerable 10 11 17 9 12 6 20 7 9 22 14 17Winnable/In Reach 17 14 21 18 15 12 16 14 13 18 26 21Peripheral/Unreachable 41 48 39 40 45 52 31 41 45 38 38 44Persuadable 27 25 38 27 27 18 36 21 22 40 40 38

Page 106

NONWT UNIONTotal UNION WHT UNION

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Married Single

Sep Divor ced

Wid owed

Sep Div Wid

Unmarr ied

Married Women

Unmarr ied

WomenMarried

MenUnmarr ied Men

Voted in person

Voted by mail

Brown Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Loyalist 26 26 21 33 37 35 26 27 30 25 21 28 27Supporter 10 9 12 10 4 8 11 8 10 10 11 10 10Conditional 6 5 8 6 6 6 7 5 8 5 6 7 4Vulnerable 4 4 6 2 2 2 5 4 3 4 7 5 3Winnable 10 10 11 10 9 9 10 10 9 10 12 10 9In Reach 8 6 14 4 7 5 10 6 9 6 12 7 7Peripheral 10 8 14 10 5 8 12 9 13 7 10 10 9Unreachable 27 32 15 24 30 26 19 30 18 33 21 24 31Loyalist/Supporter 36 35 33 44 41 43 37 36 40 35 32 38 37Conditional/Vulnerable 10 9 13 9 9 9 12 9 11 10 13 11 8Winnable/In Reach 18 16 24 14 16 15 21 16 18 16 25 17 15Peripheral/Unreachable 36 40 29 33 35 34 31 39 31 40 31 33 40Persuadable 28 25 38 23 24 23 32 25 28 25 37 29 23

Whitman Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Loyalist 24 30 12 22 21 22 16 29 15 31 17 22 28Supporter 8 7 11 6 4 6 9 7 10 6 8 8 7Conditional 5 3 10 3 4 4 8 3 7 4 9 5 4Vulnerable 5 5 6 3 6 4 5 6 4 4 8 5 4Winnable 9 8 11 7 7 7 9 7 7 10 12 9 7In Reach 8 8 10 7 7 7 9 7 10 8 8 8 7Peripheral 13 12 16 14 7 11 14 13 14 11 15 12 13Unreachable 29 28 24 37 43 40 30 28 34 27 24 30 30Loyalist/Supporter 32 37 23 29 26 27 25 36 25 37 25 30 35Conditional/Vulnerable 10 8 16 6 10 7 13 8 10 8 16 10 8Winnable/In Reach 17 16 21 14 14 14 18 15 17 17 20 18 14Peripheral/Unreachable 41 39 40 51 50 51 44 41 48 38 38 42 43Persuadable 27 24 37 20 24 22 31 23 27 25 36 28 22

Page 107

Total MARITAL MARITAL/GENDER 2008

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Voted in person

Voted by mail A B Cell Landline Base Latino

Brown Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Loyalist 26 34 29 24 28 27 26 28 20Supporter 10 8 9 11 8 11 9 8 14Conditional 6 7 3 5 7 5 6 6 8Vulnerable 4 3 3 3 5 6 4 3 8Winnable 10 8 7 12 9 11 10 9 15In Reach 8 5 6 8 7 8 8 7 10Peripheral 10 6 9 11 9 10 10 9 11Unreachable 27 29 34 26 27 21 27 30 15Loyalist/Supporter 36 42 37 35 36 38 35 36 34Conditional/Vulnerable 10 10 7 9 12 12 10 9 15Winnable/In Reach 18 13 13 20 16 19 18 16 25Peripheral/Unreachable 36 35 43 37 35 31 37 39 26Persuadable 28 23 20 28 28 30 28 25 40

Whitman Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Loyalist 24 26 31 24 24 19 25 27 14Supporter 8 4 8 9 7 8 8 8 6Conditional 5 3 5 6 4 8 5 5 6Vulnerable 5 4 3 6 4 7 5 5 6Winnable 9 7 6 8 9 10 9 7 16In Reach 8 9 5 7 9 7 8 8 10Peripheral 13 10 11 14 12 13 13 11 20Unreachable 29 36 31 26 31 30 28 30 23Loyalist/Supporter 32 30 39 33 31 26 33 35 19Conditional/Vulnerable 10 8 8 12 8 14 9 9 12Winnable/In Reach 17 15 11 16 18 17 17 15 26Peripheral/Unreachable 41 47 42 40 42 43 41 41 42Persuadable 27 23 19 27 27 31 26 24 38

Page 108

PHONE SAMPLETotal 2006 SPLIT

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LIKELY

Likely Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS

Reg Rep Not ID Rep

Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Mod erate

Conser vative

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)27 Understands people 28 33 46 21 6 44 9 22 15 26 48 27 1129 Knows how get job done 22 26 36 14 6 34 7 15 9 22 39 18 1128 Clear plan 19 22 32 12 5 31 6 13 8 16 34 17 932 Will be decisive 17 20 29 10 6 29 6 9 5 19 29 15 1030 Energy to do job 17 20 29 11 4 28 5 11 7 16 30 15 831 Has new ideas 16 18 26 11 7 25 7 11 9 16 27 14 10

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)27 Understands people 45 48 68 36 18 65 19 41 24 45 71 47 2129 Knows how get job done 40 44 62 29 16 60 16 32 19 42 63 42 1928 Clear plan 36 38 57 23 14 53 14 31 19 31 58 35 1832 Will be decisive 35 37 57 23 14 54 15 27 16 34 57 34 1930 Energy to do job 34 37 53 26 11 52 12 27 16 36 55 34 1531 Has new ideas 31 32 48 22 12 48 11 23 15 37 51 29 16

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)31 Has new ideas 24 27 12 22 48 12 45 19 30 16 7 22 4330 Energy to do job 24 25 10 22 48 11 45 18 32 17 10 19 4432 Will be decisive 20 24 7 21 44 9 41 15 31 17 5 18 3929 Knows how get job done 20 22 8 18 42 9 38 14 24 17 4 17 3828 Clear plan 18 21 7 20 36 10 34 13 27 17 4 17 3527 Understands people 17 21 7 16 38 7 34 14 23 11 4 14 35

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)31 Has new ideas 46 48 31 45 74 29 71 44 57 36 23 46 6830 Energy to do job 45 44 27 47 75 26 72 43 61 36 22 42 7132 Will be decisive 41 44 23 46 68 24 65 42 58 34 19 41 6329 Knows how get job done 38 40 20 38 68 21 64 36 50 28 17 34 6428 Clear plan 37 40 21 38 65 22 61 35 47 30 17 36 6027 Understands people 33 36 16 34 61 16 60 28 52 24 12 29 59

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)28 Clear plan 27 22 22 38 21 25 25 34 33 39 25 30 2131 Has new ideas 23 19 22 33 13 23 18 32 28 27 26 25 1732 Will be decisive 23 19 20 31 17 22 21 31 25 31 25 24 1827 Understands people 22 16 16 30 21 19 21 31 24 30 16 24 2029 Knows how get job done 22 16 18 33 15 20 21 32 31 30 21 24 1730 Energy to do job 21 18 21 28 13 22 17 30 23 27 23 24 13

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)27 Understands people 12 12 51 2 -43 48 -41 13 -28 21 59 18 -3829 Knows how get job done 2 4 41 -9 -52 39 -48 -5 -31 14 46 8 -4628 Clear plan -2 -2 37 -15 -51 31 -47 -4 -28 2 41 -1 -4232 Will be decisive -6 -6 33 -23 -54 29 -50 -14 -42 0 38 -7 -4530 Energy to do job -11 -7 26 -21 -64 26 -60 -16 -45 0 33 -8 -5631 Has new ideas -15 -16 17 -22 -62 18 -60 -21 -42 1 29 -17 -52

Page 109

IDEOLOGYTotal PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS

Page 110: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated Right Wrong

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)27 Understands people 28 50 39 11 3 16 54 36 17 4 22 32 2629 Knows how get job done 22 41 28 9 3 12 43 27 12 5 17 28 2028 Clear plan 19 35 27 8 3 9 39 26 10 4 13 29 1732 Will be decisive 17 30 24 7 5 6 35 25 8 5 10 24 1630 Energy to do job 17 31 24 5 2 11 35 23 9 3 11 25 1631 Has new ideas 16 28 21 12 4 10 32 20 12 4 13 21 16

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)27 Understands people 45 71 62 27 11 29 75 58 31 11 40 54 4329 Knows how get job done 40 63 58 25 9 20 68 55 26 9 34 53 3828 Clear plan 36 59 50 19 9 19 64 47 21 10 30 53 3332 Will be decisive 35 58 48 16 11 21 63 47 19 12 28 52 3330 Energy to do job 34 56 47 19 6 20 60 47 20 7 28 49 3231 Has new ideas 31 52 41 23 7 15 56 42 19 6 24 45 29

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)31 Has new ideas 24 7 15 33 54 16 7 15 33 54 18 12 2730 Energy to do job 24 9 13 33 54 15 9 14 33 54 17 12 2632 Will be decisive 20 5 9 35 49 13 4 12 33 48 15 10 2329 Knows how get job done 20 4 12 28 47 10 5 14 27 45 14 10 2228 Clear plan 18 4 12 29 43 10 4 15 26 41 13 12 2027 Understands people 17 4 8 25 44 10 5 9 23 42 14 8 20

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)31 Has new ideas 46 22 38 57 81 40 23 35 58 81 43 33 4930 Energy to do job 45 21 33 62 84 36 19 32 58 82 43 33 4832 Will be decisive 41 17 30 62 74 38 17 30 56 71 42 23 4529 Knows how get job done 38 16 23 52 78 33 14 25 47 76 37 23 4228 Clear plan 37 17 26 54 73 25 17 27 48 71 33 25 4127 Understands people 33 12 19 47 71 27 12 19 47 70 29 24 36

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)28 Clear plan 27 24 23 27 17 56 19 27 31 19 36 23 2631 Has new ideas 23 26 21 20 13 45 21 23 23 13 32 22 2232 Will be decisive 23 25 22 22 14 40 20 23 24 17 30 25 2127 Understands people 22 17 19 26 17 45 13 22 22 19 31 22 2029 Knows how get job done 22 21 19 23 13 47 18 20 27 15 30 25 2030 Energy to do job 21 23 20 19 10 43 21 21 22 11 29 19 20

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)27 Understands people 12 59 43 -20 -60 2 64 39 -16 -59 12 30 729 Knows how get job done 2 47 35 -27 -69 -12 54 30 -21 -66 -3 30 -428 Clear plan -2 42 24 -36 -64 -6 47 20 -27 -62 -3 28 -732 Will be decisive -6 41 18 -46 -63 -17 46 17 -37 -59 -15 29 -1230 Energy to do job -11 36 14 -43 -78 -16 41 15 -39 -75 -16 16 -1731 Has new ideas -15 30 2 -34 -74 -24 34 8 -39 -74 -19 11 -20

Page 110

Total PTY/IDEO PTYREG/IDEO STATE DIR

Page 111: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

10 8-10 6-10 0-5 0-7 BrownWhit man Und Ref

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)27 Understands people 28 32 33 31 21 22 55 4 729 Knows how get job done 22 30 27 25 14 16 45 1 328 Clear plan 19 25 24 22 12 14 38 2 732 Will be decisive 17 25 22 20 10 12 33 3 530 Energy to do job 17 25 22 19 11 12 34 2 431 Has new ideas 16 23 21 18 12 12 31 4 3

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)27 Understands people 45 43 45 45 44 45 82 12 1929 Knows how get job done 40 42 43 42 34 37 78 7 1228 Clear plan 36 38 38 38 29 33 68 7 1232 Will be decisive 35 37 39 38 28 32 66 9 1130 Energy to do job 34 35 37 36 29 31 67 4 1131 Has new ideas 31 34 33 32 27 29 58 8 10

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)31 Has new ideas 24 37 31 28 14 16 5 51 530 Energy to do job 24 35 29 27 16 18 2 52 732 Will be decisive 20 34 28 24 12 12 2 45 529 Knows how get job done 20 32 26 23 11 12 1 44 328 Clear plan 18 30 25 22 11 12 2 42 227 Understands people 17 33 26 21 8 8 1 39 3

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)31 Has new ideas 46 53 51 49 39 40 20 81 2330 Energy to do job 45 53 50 47 41 40 13 85 2232 Will be decisive 41 50 46 43 38 37 14 77 1629 Knows how get job done 38 47 43 41 32 33 8 77 1628 Clear plan 37 48 43 41 29 31 10 75 1127 Understands people 33 46 42 37 23 23 5 70 11

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)28 Clear plan 27 14 18 21 42 36 22 18 7731 Has new ideas 23 13 16 19 33 31 22 11 6832 Will be decisive 23 13 15 19 34 31 20 14 7327 Understands people 22 11 14 18 33 31 13 18 7029 Knows how get job done 22 10 14 17 33 30 14 16 7330 Energy to do job 21 12 14 18 30 29 20 11 66

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)27 Understands people 12 -4 3 8 21 22 78 -58 829 Knows how get job done 2 -5 0 1 2 4 70 -70 -428 Clear plan -2 -11 -5 -2 0 1 58 -68 132 Will be decisive -6 -13 -7 -5 -10 -6 51 -68 -430 Energy to do job -11 -18 -13 -11 -12 -9 54 -81 -1131 Has new ideas -15 -18 -18 -16 -12 -12 38 -73 -13

Page 111

Total ENTHUSIASM GOV VOTE

Page 112: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)27 Understands people 28 70 42 24 37 15 8 3 1 62 29 12 1 1829 Knows how get job done 22 58 34 22 26 5 2 1 0 52 23 3 1 1128 Clear plan 19 48 28 17 27 7 4 2 1 43 21 6 2 1232 Will be decisive 17 43 21 19 23 8 7 1 1 37 20 7 1 1230 Energy to do job 17 46 22 18 16 6 2 3 0 39 17 4 1 931 Has new ideas 16 39 25 16 15 4 4 2 5 35 16 4 4 8

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)27 Understands people 45 90 77 75 62 30 22 16 3 86 70 27 6 4229 Knows how get job done 40 87 68 72 53 12 13 13 2 82 64 13 5 3128 Clear plan 36 74 67 54 54 15 17 9 3 72 54 16 5 3032 Will be decisive 35 70 65 61 48 16 18 8 5 69 56 16 6 3130 Energy to do job 34 75 59 63 41 10 10 6 2 71 54 10 3 2631 Has new ideas 31 66 54 42 36 11 11 7 6 63 39 11 7 21

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)31 Has new ideas 24 4 4 4 12 17 24 37 55 4 8 20 50 1530 Energy to do job 24 0 2 7 2 17 19 39 59 1 5 18 54 1332 Will be decisive 20 2 3 0 6 12 11 27 55 2 2 11 48 829 Knows how get job done 20 1 1 1 5 12 19 24 53 1 3 15 45 1028 Clear plan 18 1 0 3 6 11 13 20 52 1 4 12 43 927 Understands people 17 0 3 1 4 4 11 25 50 1 2 7 43 5

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)31 Has new ideas 46 12 26 31 39 43 58 68 80 16 34 50 77 4430 Energy to do job 45 7 17 23 30 45 61 69 86 9 26 52 82 4232 Will be decisive 41 10 16 18 31 37 48 59 81 12 23 42 75 3529 Knows how get job done 38 2 14 10 23 37 44 54 83 6 15 40 75 3128 Clear plan 37 7 10 16 22 34 40 56 78 7 19 37 72 3027 Understands people 33 1 11 5 13 23 37 51 78 3 8 29 71 22

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)28 Clear plan 27 19 24 30 24 52 43 35 18 20 27 48 23 4031 Has new ideas 23 22 20 27 25 46 30 25 14 21 26 39 17 3532 Will be decisive 23 19 19 21 21 47 35 33 13 19 21 42 19 3427 Understands people 22 10 12 19 25 47 40 32 19 10 22 44 23 3629 Knows how get job done 22 10 17 18 24 51 43 34 14 12 21 47 19 3830 Energy to do job 21 18 24 14 29 45 29 25 11 20 20 38 15 32

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)27 Understands people 12 89 66 70 49 7 -15 -35 -75 83 61 -3 -64 2129 Knows how get job done 2 85 54 63 29 -25 -31 -41 -81 76 49 -27 -70 028 Clear plan -2 68 57 38 32 -19 -23 -47 -75 65 35 -21 -68 032 Will be decisive -6 60 49 44 16 -22 -30 -51 -76 57 32 -25 -70 -430 Energy to do job -11 68 42 40 10 -35 -50 -62 -84 61 28 -42 -78 -1731 Has new ideas -15 54 27 11 -4 -32 -47 -60 -74 47 5 -38 -70 -23

Page 112

Total BROWN VCS

Page 113: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)27 Understands people 28 0 4 9 18 22 19 31 65 1 14 21 54 1829 Knows how get job done 22 0 1 2 4 14 16 25 54 0 3 15 45 1128 Clear plan 19 2 1 2 7 14 15 24 44 1 5 14 38 1132 Will be decisive 17 1 1 9 8 14 15 16 40 1 9 14 33 1230 Energy to do job 17 0 3 2 8 9 14 17 42 1 5 11 35 931 Has new ideas 16 5 1 7 5 8 14 19 36 4 6 11 31 9

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)27 Understands people 45 2 15 25 38 36 60 62 84 5 32 48 77 4229 Knows how get job done 40 2 11 11 19 28 57 56 80 4 15 42 73 3228 Clear plan 36 3 6 14 19 29 47 55 68 4 16 38 64 3032 Will be decisive 35 4 9 17 22 27 47 53 65 5 19 37 62 3030 Energy to do job 34 2 4 5 12 23 50 47 70 3 9 36 63 2631 Has new ideas 31 7 4 11 17 19 34 43 61 6 14 27 56 22

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)31 Has new ideas 24 59 47 32 33 9 3 5 4 56 33 6 4 1630 Energy to do job 24 64 46 24 31 5 6 5 1 60 27 5 2 1432 Will be decisive 20 60 34 15 22 5 1 3 2 54 19 3 2 929 Knows how get job done 20 57 30 26 23 5 1 1 1 51 25 3 1 1128 Clear plan 18 56 25 19 22 5 2 0 1 48 20 4 1 1027 Understands people 17 54 30 16 7 4 2 3 0 48 11 3 1 6

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)31 Has new ideas 46 86 80 71 70 26 30 30 12 84 70 28 18 4330 Energy to do job 45 92 81 72 73 23 26 22 8 89 73 24 13 4232 Will be decisive 41 87 71 55 63 21 24 18 11 83 59 22 13 3629 Knows how get job done 38 89 64 56 62 16 12 17 5 83 59 14 8 3128 Clear plan 37 84 70 55 61 15 14 12 7 81 58 15 8 3127 Understands people 33 83 62 46 41 9 11 13 2 78 44 10 5 22

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)28 Clear plan 27 12 24 31 20 55 39 33 25 15 26 47 28 3931 Has new ideas 23 8 16 18 13 55 36 27 27 10 15 46 27 3532 Will be decisive 23 9 20 29 15 52 29 29 24 12 22 41 25 3427 Understands people 22 15 23 29 20 55 29 25 14 17 25 42 17 3629 Knows how get job done 22 9 25 33 20 56 31 28 15 13 26 44 19 3730 Energy to do job 21 6 15 23 14 55 24 31 21 8 19 40 24 32

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)27 Understands people 12 -81 -47 -21 -3 28 49 49 83 -73 -12 38 72 2029 Knows how get job done 2 -87 -53 -45 -43 11 45 39 76 -79 -44 28 64 128 Clear plan -2 -81 -64 -41 -42 14 33 43 61 -77 -42 24 56 032 Will be decisive -6 -82 -62 -38 -41 7 24 34 55 -77 -40 15 48 -530 Energy to do job -11 -89 -77 -67 -61 0 24 24 62 -87 -64 12 50 -1631 Has new ideas -15 -79 -76 -60 -53 -7 5 13 49 -78 -56 -1 38 -21

Page 113

Total WHITMAN VCS

Page 114: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Brown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

better

Govt back

groundBiz back ground

Brown better

Whit man

better Boxer Fiorina DK/ Ref

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)27 Understands people 28 62 0 59 8 61 9 45 11 62 7 46 6 1229 Knows how get job done 22 45 1 49 4 53 3 36 8 53 2 36 6 628 Clear plan 19 38 2 53 0 45 5 32 8 47 4 31 6 532 Will be decisive 17 34 2 40 4 43 4 27 9 41 4 27 6 530 Energy to do job 17 36 1 41 2 50 0 26 9 43 2 28 4 431 Has new ideas 16 32 4 39 3 39 4 24 10 40 4 25 9 3

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)27 Understands people 45 100 0 85 17 89 20 69 23 87 19 69 17 2229 Knows how get job done 40 77 7 82 12 86 14 61 21 85 12 62 15 1628 Clear plan 36 68 9 100 0 79 13 54 20 76 13 55 15 1232 Will be decisive 35 65 10 77 11 79 13 52 21 70 14 53 15 1330 Energy to do job 34 67 4 75 7 100 0 52 17 75 7 53 11 1631 Has new ideas 31 59 7 68 9 71 9 46 17 66 9 46 14 12

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)31 Has new ideas 24 7 55 4 54 4 47 10 41 4 49 10 46 1230 Energy to do job 24 6 56 2 55 0 52 10 40 2 48 9 47 1032 Will be decisive 20 5 50 3 47 2 42 7 36 2 43 7 43 429 Knows how get job done 20 4 49 3 47 2 41 7 35 2 41 7 41 728 Clear plan 18 3 47 0 49 1 39 7 32 1 39 7 37 827 Understands people 17 0 52 2 41 1 37 5 32 1 37 5 38 5

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)31 Has new ideas 46 24 86 20 85 15 81 28 68 16 81 31 72 2430 Energy to do job 45 20 90 16 86 0 100 26 69 11 83 26 77 2432 Will be decisive 41 20 83 15 80 12 77 25 62 14 73 25 70 1829 Knows how get job done 38 13 84 12 78 8 74 20 61 7 74 18 69 2628 Clear plan 37 14 82 0 100 7 72 20 58 9 69 21 66 1827 Understands people 33 0 100 8 72 4 66 13 57 5 65 15 63 13

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)28 Clear plan 27 18 10 0 0 14 15 25 22 16 18 24 19 7031 Has new ideas 23 17 6 12 7 14 9 26 15 17 10 23 14 6432 Will be decisive 23 15 7 8 9 9 10 23 17 15 13 22 15 6827 Understands people 22 0 0 7 11 7 14 19 20 8 16 16 20 6429 Knows how get job done 22 10 10 6 9 7 13 19 19 8 14 20 16 5830 Energy to do job 21 13 6 9 7 0 0 23 14 14 10 21 12 60

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)27 Understands people 12 100 -100 77 -55 85 -46 56 -35 81 -46 54 -47 929 Knows how get job done 2 65 -77 71 -66 78 -60 42 -40 78 -61 44 -55 -1028 Clear plan -2 54 -73 100 -100 72 -59 34 -38 67 -56 34 -51 -632 Will be decisive -6 45 -73 62 -69 67 -64 27 -41 56 -59 28 -55 -530 Energy to do job -11 47 -86 59 -80 100 -100 26 -51 64 -75 27 -65 -831 Has new ideas -15 35 -79 48 -76 56 -72 19 -51 50 -72 15 -58 -12

Page 114

ENERGY BCKGRND ECONOMY SEN VOTETotal UNDERSTAND CLEAR PLAN

Page 115: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)27 Understands people 28 64 33 29 26 12 17 9 3 54 27 14 4 2229 Knows how get job done 22 51 26 14 23 8 15 7 3 43 18 12 4 1528 Clear plan 19 42 23 20 15 7 15 7 4 36 17 11 4 1532 Will be decisive 17 40 14 13 21 8 10 5 5 32 17 9 5 1330 Energy to do job 17 41 15 16 14 6 9 8 2 33 15 8 3 1231 Has new ideas 16 35 15 13 17 4 15 13 6 29 15 9 7 12

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)27 Understands people 45 84 60 57 46 18 35 32 12 76 52 26 15 4129 Knows how get job done 40 77 57 48 34 21 31 19 10 71 41 26 11 3528 Clear plan 36 67 48 48 30 14 30 18 11 61 39 21 12 3232 Will be decisive 35 67 42 39 38 19 29 21 11 59 38 23 13 3230 Energy to do job 34 68 43 37 31 17 30 17 7 61 34 23 9 3031 Has new ideas 31 57 37 37 32 11 23 25 10 51 34 17 13 27

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)31 Has new ideas 24 5 17 11 18 22 14 30 49 9 14 19 45 1630 Energy to do job 24 6 10 13 15 12 20 32 51 7 14 16 47 1532 Will be decisive 20 6 9 6 14 6 12 29 46 6 10 9 43 1029 Knows how get job done 20 3 7 10 15 8 14 23 45 4 12 11 41 1228 Clear plan 18 4 10 6 16 11 14 18 41 6 11 12 37 1227 Understands people 17 3 4 7 8 7 15 20 42 3 8 11 38 9

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)31 Has new ideas 46 20 45 37 41 34 44 53 74 28 39 39 70 3930 Energy to do job 45 14 36 37 41 26 44 59 80 20 39 34 76 3732 Will be decisive 41 16 33 36 33 19 38 56 73 21 35 28 69 3229 Knows how get job done 38 10 21 28 31 20 47 50 73 13 29 33 69 3128 Clear plan 37 13 28 20 38 20 42 43 69 17 29 30 64 2927 Understands people 33 7 23 17 27 11 36 42 67 12 22 23 63 22

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)28 Clear plan 27 20 25 31 33 66 28 39 20 21 32 48 24 3931 Has new ideas 23 23 18 26 27 54 33 22 16 21 26 45 18 3432 Will be decisive 23 17 25 26 29 63 34 23 16 19 27 49 17 3627 Understands people 22 9 18 26 27 71 29 26 21 12 26 51 22 3729 Knows how get job done 22 13 21 24 35 58 23 31 17 15 29 42 20 3430 Energy to do job 21 18 21 26 28 57 26 24 13 19 27 43 15 33

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)27 Understands people 12 76 37 40 20 7 -1 -10 -56 64 30 4 -47 1929 Knows how get job done 2 68 36 20 3 1 -16 -30 -64 58 12 -7 -57 428 Clear plan -2 54 20 28 -8 -6 -12 -25 -58 44 11 -9 -52 332 Will be decisive -6 50 10 3 4 0 -9 -35 -61 38 4 -4 -56 030 Energy to do job -11 55 7 0 -9 -9 -14 -41 -73 41 -5 -11 -67 -731 Has new ideas -15 37 -9 0 -10 -23 -22 -28 -64 23 -5 -22 -57 -12

Page 115

Total BOXER VCS

Page 116: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)27 Understands people 28 4 6 18 20 25 32 61 4 15 22 52 2129 Knows how get job done 22 3 7 18 16 12 23 49 4 17 14 41 1428 Clear plan 19 4 8 17 10 17 21 41 5 15 13 34 1432 Will be decisive 17 5 6 10 15 12 12 38 5 11 13 30 1330 Energy to do job 17 2 10 12 10 13 13 40 3 11 12 31 1231 Has new ideas 16 6 17 17 11 11 13 33 8 15 11 27 12

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)27 Understands people 45 11 29 37 33 52 57 81 14 33 42 73 4029 Knows how get job done 40 10 18 37 25 41 53 75 11 37 32 68 3328 Clear plan 36 11 21 31 21 43 43 65 13 29 31 58 3132 Will be decisive 35 11 19 34 27 34 39 65 12 35 30 57 3130 Energy to do job 34 7 15 35 24 33 40 67 8 31 28 58 2931 Has new ideas 31 11 25 28 22 33 34 55 13 23 27 48 26

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)31 Has new ideas 24 51 37 19 15 13 15 5 49 26 14 9 1730 Energy to do job 24 53 39 22 13 15 10 5 51 22 14 7 1532 Will be decisive 20 49 37 17 10 7 8 5 47 16 9 6 1029 Knows how get job done 20 47 27 15 11 11 8 3 44 18 11 4 1228 Clear plan 18 43 22 13 12 8 10 4 40 18 10 6 1227 Understands people 17 44 26 18 7 8 4 3 41 19 7 3 9

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)31 Has new ideas 46 77 64 46 33 38 44 19 75 51 35 27 3830 Energy to do job 45 84 71 43 31 38 37 13 82 46 34 21 3632 Will be decisive 41 76 71 42 24 35 33 16 75 39 29 21 3129 Knows how get job done 38 77 55 46 25 31 24 10 74 43 28 14 3128 Clear plan 37 72 51 45 29 22 27 12 69 45 26 17 2927 Understands people 33 71 53 33 20 20 22 7 68 34 20 12 22

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)28 Clear plan 27 16 27 24 50 36 30 22 18 26 43 25 4031 Has new ideas 23 12 11 26 45 29 22 25 12 26 38 24 3532 Will be decisive 23 13 10 24 48 31 28 19 13 26 40 22 3827 Understands people 22 18 18 29 47 29 21 12 18 33 39 15 3829 Knows how get job done 22 14 28 17 50 27 24 15 16 19 40 18 3630 Energy to do job 21 9 14 23 46 29 23 20 10 22 38 21 35

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)27 Understands people 12 -59 -24 4 14 32 35 74 -54 -1 22 61 1829 Knows how get job done 2 -67 -37 -9 -1 10 29 66 -63 -6 4 54 228 Clear plan -2 -61 -30 -14 -8 21 16 53 -57 -15 5 41 132 Will be decisive -6 -65 -52 -8 3 -1 6 49 -63 -3 1 35 030 Energy to do job -11 -77 -56 -8 -7 -5 3 53 -74 -15 -6 37 -831 Has new ideas -15 -67 -39 -18 -10 -6 -9 36 -63 -27 -8 21 -12

Page 116

Total FIORINA VCS

Page 117: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Support Obama

Oppose Obama

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better Favor Oppose

Impor tant

Not Impor tant

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)27 Understands people 28 41 7 52 9 50 9 53 9 20 38 33 1029 Knows how get job done 22 33 4 41 8 41 5 44 6 15 29 26 728 Clear plan 19 29 5 37 5 35 6 37 5 16 24 23 532 Will be decisive 17 26 4 33 7 32 6 34 6 13 21 20 730 Energy to do job 17 26 2 34 5 32 4 35 5 11 21 21 531 Has new ideas 16 24 5 31 8 28 7 32 9 14 19 19 9

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)27 Understands people 45 63 15 75 21 74 19 75 19 35 57 54 1729 Knows how get job done 40 56 14 67 18 67 16 69 16 32 50 49 1328 Clear plan 36 51 14 65 16 60 16 62 15 32 42 43 1332 Will be decisive 35 49 14 62 17 59 16 61 16 31 43 42 1530 Energy to do job 34 50 8 62 14 58 13 63 12 28 41 41 1131 Has new ideas 31 44 10 55 14 50 15 55 15 27 37 36 13

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)31 Has new ideas 24 12 48 9 49 11 48 9 49 31 20 16 4830 Energy to do job 24 11 48 8 47 10 48 9 47 30 19 16 4732 Will be decisive 20 9 44 6 44 7 46 7 46 27 15 13 4529 Knows how get job done 20 9 41 7 42 7 45 7 43 26 15 12 4328 Clear plan 18 9 38 7 37 6 40 7 39 26 13 12 3727 Understands people 17 7 40 4 39 5 42 5 41 25 12 11 38

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)31 Has new ideas 46 32 74 27 75 31 75 26 74 54 42 38 7030 Energy to do job 45 27 80 23 76 24 79 22 79 54 40 35 7632 Will be decisive 41 27 71 23 70 23 72 22 72 51 36 32 6929 Knows how get job done 38 22 70 20 68 18 73 17 70 49 31 27 7128 Clear plan 37 23 66 18 68 20 69 19 67 47 32 28 6527 Understands people 33 17 67 15 63 14 66 14 65 45 26 23 64

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)28 Clear plan 27 26 20 18 16 21 15 18 18 21 26 28 2231 Has new ideas 23 24 16 18 11 20 10 19 11 19 22 26 1732 Will be decisive 23 24 16 15 13 17 11 17 12 18 21 25 1627 Understands people 22 20 18 10 16 12 15 12 16 20 17 23 1929 Knows how get job done 22 21 16 13 14 15 11 13 14 20 19 24 1730 Energy to do job 21 23 12 15 10 17 8 15 9 18 18 24 13

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)27 Understands people 12 45 -51 60 -42 60 -48 61 -46 -10 31 31 -4629 Knows how get job done 2 34 -56 47 -50 49 -56 52 -54 -17 19 22 -5828 Clear plan -2 28 -52 47 -52 40 -52 43 -52 -15 10 15 -5232 Will be decisive -6 22 -57 38 -53 36 -56 39 -56 -20 7 10 -5530 Energy to do job -11 22 -72 39 -62 34 -66 42 -66 -26 1 7 -6531 Has new ideas -15 12 -65 29 -60 19 -60 29 -59 -27 -5 -2 -56

Page 117

SHARE VALUES JOBS ECON PROP 23 GW IMPTTotal SENTYPE CHANGE

Page 118: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

White Black Latino Asian Men Women Men Women Men Women

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)27 Understands people 28 29 25 25 28 27 28 30 28 20 3029 Knows how get job done 22 23 16 20 18 20 23 21 24 19 2228 Clear plan 19 18 32 21 14 18 20 17 19 18 2332 Will be decisive 17 16 20 21 14 16 18 14 17 21 2230 Energy to do job 17 15 21 23 10 16 18 15 16 21 2431 Has new ideas 16 15 30 20 8 15 17 14 16 20 20

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)27 Understands people 45 45 44 46 51 43 46 45 45 40 5129 Knows how get job done 40 40 33 44 37 39 41 40 40 41 4828 Clear plan 36 33 51 41 44 36 36 34 32 40 4332 Will be decisive 35 33 43 42 40 35 36 34 32 44 4130 Energy to do job 34 31 41 42 35 32 35 31 32 38 4631 Has new ideas 31 30 47 35 25 30 31 29 30 32 36

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)31 Has new ideas 24 27 14 17 12 26 22 26 28 21 1430 Energy to do job 24 27 13 14 16 24 23 25 29 17 1232 Will be decisive 20 24 13 12 14 20 21 23 25 14 1029 Knows how get job done 20 22 11 13 10 21 19 21 24 18 928 Clear plan 18 21 12 12 12 20 17 21 21 16 927 Understands people 17 20 16 10 10 19 16 20 20 12 8

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)31 Has new ideas 46 48 30 38 49 47 45 49 48 41 3630 Energy to do job 45 48 36 34 43 47 43 50 47 38 3032 Will be decisive 41 46 33 29 32 44 39 48 44 30 2829 Knows how get job done 38 40 35 28 36 40 36 40 40 34 2428 Clear plan 37 41 24 26 32 37 38 39 44 29 2327 Understands people 33 36 27 23 30 36 31 38 34 27 20

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)28 Clear plan 27 25 25 33 24 27 27 27 24 32 3431 Has new ideas 23 22 23 27 26 23 24 22 22 27 2732 Will be decisive 23 21 23 29 28 20 26 19 24 26 3127 Understands people 22 19 29 31 19 21 23 17 22 33 2929 Knows how get job done 22 19 32 27 27 21 23 19 19 25 2930 Energy to do job 21 20 23 24 22 21 22 19 21 24 24

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)27 Understands people 12 9 17 23 21 8 16 7 11 13 3129 Knows how get job done 2 0 -2 16 2 -1 5 0 0 7 2428 Clear plan -2 -8 27 16 12 -1 -2 -5 -12 11 2032 Will be decisive -6 -13 10 14 8 -9 -3 -14 -11 15 1330 Energy to do job -11 -17 5 8 -8 -15 -8 -19 -14 0 1531 Has new ideas -15 -19 16 -3 -24 -17 -13 -20 -18 -8 0

Page 118

WHT GEN LAT GENTotal RACE GENDER

Page 119: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)27 Understands people 28 24 15 28 35 32 23 3429 Knows how get job done 22 13 10 20 29 29 15 2928 Clear plan 19 13 17 18 21 24 16 2232 Will be decisive 17 12 10 13 22 25 11 2430 Energy to do job 17 10 10 15 22 22 12 2231 Has new ideas 16 13 11 16 17 23 14 20

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)27 Understands people 45 46 38 43 51 45 42 4829 Knows how get job done 40 37 35 34 47 41 36 4528 Clear plan 36 36 35 36 37 36 36 3632 Will be decisive 35 39 32 30 39 36 34 3730 Energy to do job 34 31 27 33 39 36 30 3831 Has new ideas 31 31 27 28 34 33 29 34

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)31 Has new ideas 24 18 22 31 22 27 24 2430 Energy to do job 24 15 21 27 22 31 21 2632 Will be decisive 20 10 20 23 20 27 18 2329 Knows how get job done 20 16 14 22 18 27 18 2128 Clear plan 18 13 19 18 17 23 17 2027 Understands people 17 7 16 22 17 23 15 19

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)31 Has new ideas 46 44 45 53 44 45 48 4430 Energy to do job 45 42 47 50 42 46 46 4432 Will be decisive 41 32 41 53 40 42 42 4129 Knows how get job done 38 33 35 46 36 41 38 3828 Clear plan 37 35 35 45 36 37 39 3627 Understands people 33 25 37 39 31 34 34 32

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)28 Clear plan 27 29 30 19 27 27 25 2731 Has new ideas 23 25 28 19 22 22 24 2232 Will be decisive 23 29 27 17 21 22 24 2127 Understands people 22 30 25 18 18 21 24 2029 Knows how get job done 22 29 30 19 16 18 26 1730 Energy to do job 21 28 26 17 18 18 23 18

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)27 Understands people 12 21 1 4 20 11 9 1629 Knows how get job done 2 4 1 -12 11 1 -3 728 Clear plan -2 1 -1 -9 1 -1 -3 032 Will be decisive -6 8 -9 -22 -2 -6 -8 -430 Energy to do job -11 -11 -20 -17 -3 -10 -16 -631 Has new ideas -15 -14 -18 -24 -10 -12 -19 -11

Page 119

Total AGE

Page 120: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over 18-29 30-4950 and

over 18-4950 and

over

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)27 Understands people 28 26 13 27 36 32 22 34 22 20 36 21 3629 Knows how get job done 22 13 7 22 29 27 15 29 14 15 37 14 3728 Clear plan 19 9 13 17 21 22 14 21 17 16 32 16 3232 Will be decisive 17 6 5 9 22 24 7 23 16 19 33 17 3330 Energy to do job 17 5 5 13 21 20 8 21 15 23 33 19 3331 Has new ideas 16 6 9 15 16 21 11 18 20 12 30 16 30

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)27 Understands people 45 41 35 43 53 44 40 49 49 39 50 45 5029 Knows how get job done 40 35 36 34 48 39 35 45 38 44 56 41 5628 Clear plan 36 27 30 35 36 34 31 35 41 39 46 40 4632 Will be decisive 35 34 28 29 38 33 30 36 41 36 52 39 5230 Energy to do job 34 24 18 31 39 33 25 37 37 43 51 40 5131 Has new ideas 31 28 25 26 34 30 26 33 35 26 44 31 44

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)31 Has new ideas 24 26 23 37 23 28 30 25 11 22 19 16 1930 Energy to do job 24 21 25 33 23 32 27 27 13 12 18 13 1832 Will be decisive 20 16 21 29 21 29 23 24 9 11 17 10 1729 Knows how get job done 20 19 17 27 19 28 21 23 15 7 13 12 1328 Clear plan 18 19 22 21 18 24 21 21 11 9 16 10 1627 Understands people 17 11 18 27 17 24 20 20 6 8 17 7 17

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)31 Has new ideas 46 48 46 56 46 48 51 47 37 43 33 40 3330 Energy to do job 45 47 55 52 44 49 52 46 37 33 31 35 3132 Will be decisive 41 39 48 56 42 45 49 43 26 35 27 30 2729 Knows how get job done 38 35 36 51 38 43 42 40 32 26 25 29 2528 Clear plan 37 49 40 50 38 39 46 38 26 26 25 26 2527 Understands people 33 27 41 44 31 36 39 33 21 24 25 22 25

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)28 Clear plan 27 24 30 16 26 27 23 27 33 35 29 34 2931 Has new ideas 23 25 29 19 20 22 24 21 28 30 23 29 2332 Will be decisive 23 27 24 15 20 22 21 21 33 29 21 31 2127 Understands people 22 32 24 13 16 20 21 18 29 37 25 33 2529 Knows how get job done 22 30 28 16 14 18 23 16 30 30 18 30 1830 Energy to do job 21 29 27 17 17 18 23 17 26 25 19 25 19

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)27 Understands people 12 14 -6 -1 22 8 1 16 28 15 25 22 2529 Knows how get job done 2 0 0 -17 11 -3 -7 5 7 18 31 12 3128 Clear plan -2 -22 -11 -15 -2 -4 -15 -3 15 13 21 14 2132 Will be decisive -6 -5 -20 -27 -4 -11 -19 -7 16 2 25 9 2530 Energy to do job -11 -23 -37 -21 -5 -15 -27 -9 0 10 20 4 2031 Has new ideas -15 -20 -21 -30 -11 -17 -25 -14 -2 -17 11 -9 11

Page 120

Total WHT AGE LAT AGE

Page 121: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Young Women

Young Men

Older Women

Older Men

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)27 Understands people 28 24 21 33 34 20 27 27 37 24 3129 Knows how get job done 22 17 12 30 29 21 18 21 29 19 2428 Clear plan 19 16 15 24 21 16 20 18 21 18 2032 Will be decisive 17 11 12 26 21 20 16 16 19 17 1730 Energy to do job 17 12 11 23 22 20 16 16 17 17 1631 Has new ideas 16 15 12 19 20 17 16 17 16 16 17

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)27 Understands people 45 44 41 49 48 36 43 46 54 41 5029 Knows how get job done 40 37 34 45 44 38 36 41 46 37 4328 Clear plan 36 35 36 36 36 36 36 33 40 36 3632 Will be decisive 35 33 34 38 37 36 35 34 38 35 3630 Energy to do job 34 31 30 40 36 36 30 32 39 32 3531 Has new ideas 31 31 26 33 35 29 29 28 38 29 33

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)31 Has new ideas 24 21 27 24 25 25 23 25 24 24 2430 Energy to do job 24 21 22 27 25 19 25 22 28 23 2432 Will be decisive 20 18 17 23 23 18 18 20 27 18 2329 Knows how get job done 20 16 20 21 22 20 20 17 23 20 2028 Clear plan 18 14 20 20 19 19 18 16 21 18 1827 Understands people 17 13 17 18 21 18 14 18 21 15 19

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)31 Has new ideas 46 46 49 43 46 49 45 50 40 46 4530 Energy to do job 45 45 48 42 46 42 47 47 42 45 4532 Will be decisive 41 39 46 39 43 38 42 44 40 40 4229 Knows how get job done 38 37 41 37 40 38 41 35 38 40 3628 Clear plan 37 40 38 36 36 34 38 39 37 36 3827 Understands people 33 31 37 30 34 36 32 31 33 34 32

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)28 Clear plan 27 25 26 27 27 31 26 28 23 28 2631 Has new ideas 23 23 25 24 20 22 26 22 22 25 2232 Will be decisive 23 28 20 22 20 26 24 23 21 25 2227 Understands people 22 25 23 21 18 27 25 22 13 26 1829 Knows how get job done 22 27 25 18 16 24 23 24 16 24 2030 Energy to do job 21 24 22 19 18 22 23 21 19 23 20

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)27 Understands people 12 13 4 18 13 0 10 15 21 7 1729 Knows how get job done 2 0 -6 9 5 0 -5 6 8 -3 728 Clear plan -2 -5 -1 0 0 2 -2 -6 3 -1 -232 Will be decisive -6 -5 -12 -1 -6 -2 -7 -10 -2 -5 -730 Energy to do job -11 -14 -18 -2 -10 -6 -16 -15 -2 -13 -931 Has new ideas -15 -16 -22 -10 -11 -19 -16 -22 -1 -17 -13

Page 121

Total GENDER/AGE EDUCATION

Page 122: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Non College College

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)27 Understands people 28 19 27 28 37 25 32 24 30 23 31 25 3229 Knows how get job done 22 20 19 22 29 19 25 19 23 17 23 20 2628 Clear plan 19 12 19 18 20 17 19 20 23 17 19 20 2132 Will be decisive 17 16 15 15 18 15 16 22 20 17 15 18 1930 Energy to do job 17 17 15 15 16 15 16 23 23 16 16 18 1731 Has new ideas 16 12 14 16 15 14 16 21 17 15 15 17 18

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)27 Understands people 45 31 41 47 55 38 50 45 48 38 49 43 5129 Knows how get job done 40 32 35 43 47 34 45 44 45 34 43 39 4428 Clear plan 36 28 33 32 38 32 34 43 38 36 36 35 3632 Will be decisive 35 29 32 32 38 31 35 43 40 38 32 33 3930 Energy to do job 34 29 27 31 38 27 34 43 40 30 35 35 3631 Has new ideas 31 22 26 29 37 25 33 38 25 28 32 30 33

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)31 Has new ideas 24 32 27 27 24 28 26 17 16 26 26 22 2330 Energy to do job 24 28 32 22 28 31 25 14 16 23 24 23 2432 Will be decisive 20 28 23 21 27 24 24 10 18 17 23 18 2329 Knows how get job done 20 29 24 18 22 26 20 13 12 22 20 18 2028 Clear plan 18 27 23 16 21 24 18 12 11 19 21 18 1727 Understands people 17 26 19 19 21 21 20 9 11 16 22 15 17

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)31 Has new ideas 46 66 48 48 40 54 44 34 51 47 48 46 4330 Energy to do job 45 56 53 46 42 54 44 32 41 48 47 43 4332 Will be decisive 41 50 49 44 40 49 43 26 39 42 47 39 3829 Knows how get job done 38 53 46 33 37 48 35 27 31 43 37 37 3628 Clear plan 37 45 44 39 39 45 39 25 30 37 38 36 3927 Understands people 33 47 39 29 33 42 31 22 27 37 35 31 30

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)28 Clear plan 27 27 22 29 23 24 26 33 32 27 26 28 2531 Has new ideas 23 12 25 23 23 21 23 28 24 25 20 24 2432 Will be decisive 23 21 19 23 22 20 23 31 21 20 21 28 2327 Understands people 22 23 20 24 12 21 19 32 25 26 16 26 2029 Knows how get job done 22 16 19 24 16 18 21 28 24 23 20 24 2030 Energy to do job 21 15 21 23 20 19 21 25 19 23 19 22 21

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)27 Understands people 12 -16 2 17 22 -4 19 23 21 1 14 11 2129 Knows how get job done 2 -21 -10 10 10 -14 10 17 14 -9 6 2 828 Clear plan -2 -17 -11 -7 -2 -13 -5 18 9 -1 -2 -1 -332 Will be decisive -6 -20 -18 -12 -2 -18 -8 18 1 -4 -15 -6 130 Energy to do job -11 -27 -26 -15 -4 -26 -10 12 -1 -18 -12 -8 -731 Has new ideas -15 -44 -22 -18 -3 -29 -11 3 -26 -19 -16 -16 -10

Page 122

GENDER/EDUCTotal WHT EDUC LAT EDUC

Page 123: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)27 Understands people 28 26 32 24 32 20 25 29 38 21 24 28 3929 Knows how get job done 22 16 24 22 26 13 17 26 33 13 16 23 3328 Clear plan 19 15 18 18 20 16 16 22 23 14 14 19 2332 Will be decisive 17 14 15 17 18 13 9 22 25 8 6 20 2430 Energy to do job 17 15 15 15 16 13 11 23 22 7 9 21 2131 Has new ideas 16 12 15 15 17 14 14 19 20 10 11 16 20

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)27 Understands people 45 39 50 37 51 40 45 42 54 34 44 42 5529 Knows how get job done 40 34 44 34 45 35 37 40 50 31 37 37 5028 Clear plan 36 33 35 30 34 37 34 34 38 32 31 32 3832 Will be decisive 35 36 32 26 37 34 34 37 38 27 32 34 3830 Energy to do job 34 26 34 29 35 31 30 35 41 22 27 32 4031 Has new ideas 31 24 32 26 33 29 29 30 37 23 28 27 37

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)31 Has new ideas 24 26 27 31 25 23 25 24 24 32 28 26 2430 Energy to do job 24 27 24 34 25 20 23 27 25 32 24 29 2532 Will be decisive 20 22 24 26 24 14 22 22 24 23 23 24 2429 Knows how get job done 20 24 19 27 21 18 18 22 21 26 18 25 2128 Clear plan 18 22 20 26 17 16 18 22 18 25 18 24 1827 Understands people 17 19 22 23 18 12 19 20 19 19 20 21 19

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)31 Has new ideas 46 53 46 54 43 45 50 47 41 54 48 53 4130 Energy to do job 45 56 46 51 43 46 47 45 43 59 47 50 4332 Will be decisive 41 49 47 50 39 41 43 40 42 57 43 44 4229 Knows how get job done 38 49 34 47 35 39 38 42 35 50 36 47 3428 Clear plan 37 42 36 46 42 38 40 35 37 52 42 40 3727 Understands people 33 45 33 39 29 33 34 35 30 45 34 39 29

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)28 Clear plan 27 24 29 23 24 25 26 30 25 16 27 28 2531 Has new ideas 23 22 22 20 24 26 21 22 22 23 24 20 2232 Will be decisive 23 15 22 24 24 25 24 24 20 16 25 22 2027 Understands people 22 16 17 24 20 27 20 23 16 21 22 20 1629 Knows how get job done 22 17 21 19 20 26 25 18 15 18 27 16 1530 Energy to do job 21 18 21 20 22 24 23 20 16 19 26 18 17

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)27 Understands people 12 -7 17 -2 22 7 11 7 24 -12 11 3 2629 Knows how get job done 2 -15 10 -13 10 -4 -1 -2 14 -19 2 -10 1628 Clear plan -2 -9 -2 -16 -8 0 -6 -1 2 -20 -11 -8 132 Will be decisive -6 -12 -15 -24 -2 -7 -9 -3 -4 -31 -11 -10 -530 Energy to do job -11 -31 -12 -22 -8 -15 -17 -10 -2 -37 -20 -18 -331 Has new ideas -15 -29 -13 -28 -10 -17 -21 -17 -5 -31 -20 -26 -4

Page 123

Total WHT GEN/EDUC AGE/EDUC WHT AGE/EDUC

Page 124: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

MemberHhold

memberNo

memberTotal Union Member

Hhold member

No member

Total Union Member

No member

Total Union

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)27 Understands people 28 36 34 26 34 40 29 27 34 28 23 3329 Knows how get job done 22 26 24 20 26 30 24 21 28 17 19 2228 Clear plan 19 24 14 19 20 24 7 18 18 24 21 2432 Will be decisive 17 21 21 16 21 20 19 15 19 22 19 2430 Energy to do job 17 20 22 16 20 22 22 14 20 16 20 2031 Has new ideas 16 18 11 16 18 19 3 15 16 17 19 22

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)27 Understands people 45 54 45 44 50 56 38 43 50 47 45 4829 Knows how get job done 40 45 37 40 42 50 32 40 43 34 40 4028 Clear plan 36 42 26 36 36 43 20 33 34 39 42 4032 Will be decisive 35 40 29 35 36 41 23 33 34 36 41 4030 Energy to do job 34 45 30 33 37 48 23 30 37 36 40 3631 Has new ideas 31 36 27 30 33 37 21 29 33 33 34 34

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)31 Has new ideas 24 19 24 25 20 23 36 27 26 10 20 1030 Energy to do job 24 22 20 24 21 25 28 28 26 15 18 1232 Will be decisive 20 21 18 21 20 21 23 25 23 19 13 1529 Knows how get job done 20 16 15 20 17 18 23 22 22 11 16 828 Clear plan 18 15 17 19 16 19 23 21 20 8 15 827 Understands people 17 14 5 19 12 17 8 22 15 5 13 7

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)31 Has new ideas 46 38 37 48 37 36 50 51 39 42 43 3430 Energy to do job 45 38 35 47 38 37 43 50 40 39 40 3232 Will be decisive 41 42 27 42 38 39 35 47 40 50 33 3429 Knows how get job done 38 34 26 39 33 34 31 42 36 34 35 2828 Clear plan 37 30 36 39 33 32 51 42 38 26 31 2227 Understands people 33 26 18 35 25 29 23 38 28 21 30 19

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)28 Clear plan 27 28 38 25 31 25 29 25 28 34 27 3831 Has new ideas 23 27 37 21 30 27 29 21 28 25 23 3232 Will be decisive 23 18 43 22 26 20 42 20 26 14 26 2727 Understands people 22 20 37 21 25 15 39 19 22 31 25 3329 Knows how get job done 22 21 37 21 25 16 38 19 22 32 25 3230 Energy to do job 21 18 35 20 25 15 33 20 22 25 20 31

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)27 Understands people 12 27 28 8 25 28 14 5 22 26 15 2929 Knows how get job done 2 10 11 0 8 16 1 -2 7 -1 5 1128 Clear plan -2 12 -10 -3 3 11 -30 -10 -4 13 11 1732 Will be decisive -6 -3 2 -7 -2 3 -12 -14 -6 -14 8 630 Energy to do job -11 7 -5 -14 -1 11 -20 -20 -3 -3 0 431 Has new ideas -15 -2 -10 -18 -4 1 -29 -22 -6 -9 -9 0

Page 124

NONWT UNIONTotal UNION WHT UNION

Page 125: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Married Single

Sep Divor ced

Wid owed

Sep Div Wid

Unmarr ied

Married Women

Unmarr ied

WomenMarried

MenUnmarr ied Men

Voted in person

Voted by mail

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)27 Understands people 28 28 22 37 33 35 27 27 29 29 24 29 2929 Knows how get job done 22 23 14 27 33 29 20 24 22 22 17 21 2428 Clear plan 19 19 16 24 28 25 20 18 22 19 16 17 2232 Will be decisive 17 16 14 23 31 26 18 17 20 16 16 17 1930 Energy to do job 17 17 12 23 29 25 17 17 18 16 16 16 1931 Has new ideas 16 16 12 25 27 26 17 16 19 16 15 16 17

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)27 Understands people 45 45 43 54 47 51 46 45 48 44 43 46 4629 Knows how get job done 40 41 35 43 45 44 39 41 41 41 35 39 4128 Clear plan 36 35 35 39 42 40 37 32 40 38 33 34 3832 Will be decisive 35 34 37 35 44 38 37 35 37 34 38 36 3530 Energy to do job 34 34 30 39 43 40 34 34 37 34 30 33 3531 Has new ideas 31 31 26 39 37 38 30 30 33 33 27 31 32

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)31 Has new ideas 24 26 22 20 20 20 21 26 17 26 26 22 2830 Energy to do job 24 26 17 26 20 24 19 28 18 25 21 22 2632 Will be decisive 20 23 14 26 20 23 17 23 17 22 18 17 2529 Knows how get job done 20 21 17 22 20 21 18 22 16 20 22 17 2228 Clear plan 18 21 14 19 14 17 15 20 13 21 18 16 2127 Understands people 17 21 12 15 9 13 12 20 10 22 15 15 21

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)31 Has new ideas 46 48 46 38 37 38 43 49 38 46 49 45 4730 Energy to do job 45 47 43 41 33 38 41 46 39 49 44 44 4632 Will be decisive 41 46 34 41 34 38 35 44 32 48 39 40 4529 Knows how get job done 38 40 35 39 33 37 36 39 33 41 39 36 4028 Clear plan 37 40 34 35 26 32 33 43 30 37 37 36 3927 Understands people 33 37 28 25 25 25 27 36 24 38 32 30 37

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)28 Clear plan 27 25 31 26 32 28 30 25 30 24 30 30 2331 Has new ideas 23 21 28 23 27 25 27 21 28 21 25 25 2132 Will be decisive 23 20 29 25 22 24 27 22 31 18 23 24 2027 Understands people 22 18 29 21 28 24 27 19 28 18 25 24 1729 Knows how get job done 22 19 29 18 22 19 26 20 26 18 26 25 1830 Energy to do job 21 18 27 20 23 21 25 20 25 17 25 23 19

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)27 Understands people 12 7 14 29 22 26 19 9 24 6 12 16 829 Knows how get job done 2 2 0 4 13 7 3 3 8 0 -4 3 128 Clear plan -2 -5 1 3 15 8 4 -11 10 1 -4 -2 -132 Will be decisive -6 -12 3 -6 11 0 2 -9 4 -15 -1 -4 -1030 Energy to do job -11 -13 -13 -3 10 2 -7 -12 -2 -14 -14 -11 -1131 Has new ideas -15 -16 -20 0 0 0 -13 -19 -5 -14 -22 -14 -15

Page 125

Total MARITAL MARITAL/GENDER 2008

Page 126: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Voted in person

Voted by mail A B Cell Landline Base Latino

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)27 Understands people 28 33 31 28 27 30 27 28 2629 Knows how get job done 22 24 26 21 22 17 22 22 2228 Clear plan 19 20 21 19 19 16 19 19 2032 Will be decisive 17 19 19 16 18 13 18 16 2230 Energy to do job 17 19 20 17 17 9 18 15 2331 Has new ideas 16 17 18 16 17 10 17 16 20

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)27 Understands people 45 49 47 44 46 49 44 45 4529 Knows how get job done 40 44 42 39 41 41 40 40 4128 Clear plan 36 37 36 34 37 36 36 35 3832 Will be decisive 35 38 34 32 38 36 35 34 4030 Energy to do job 34 38 35 33 35 29 34 32 3931 Has new ideas 31 32 33 28 34 29 31 31 32

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)31 Has new ideas 24 20 28 26 22 29 23 26 1630 Energy to do job 24 21 26 25 22 28 23 26 1332 Will be decisive 20 18 28 22 19 23 20 23 1029 Knows how get job done 20 15 25 21 18 20 20 21 1328 Clear plan 18 17 22 21 16 18 18 20 1327 Understands people 17 15 22 19 16 18 17 20 8

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)31 Has new ideas 46 42 49 49 42 49 45 48 3830 Energy to do job 45 40 47 46 44 50 44 48 3332 Will be decisive 41 38 49 43 40 41 41 45 2929 Knows how get job done 38 33 42 39 37 37 38 41 2828 Clear plan 37 34 41 41 34 40 37 40 2927 Understands people 33 31 37 35 31 34 33 35 25

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)28 Clear plan 27 29 23 25 29 24 27 25 3331 Has new ideas 23 27 17 23 24 22 24 21 3032 Will be decisive 23 25 17 25 22 23 23 21 3027 Understands people 22 21 17 21 23 17 23 20 3029 Knows how get job done 22 23 17 22 22 22 22 20 3130 Energy to do job 21 22 17 21 21 22 21 19 28

Q27-32 Summary Governor Better Description...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)27 Understands people 12 18 10 9 15 15 12 10 2029 Knows how get job done 2 11 0 0 4 4 2 -1 1328 Clear plan -2 4 -5 -7 3 -4 -1 -5 932 Will be decisive -6 0 -16 -10 -2 -6 -6 -11 1130 Energy to do job -11 -2 -12 -13 -9 -21 -10 -16 731 Has new ideas -15 -10 -16 -21 -8 -20 -14 -18 -6

Page 126

PHONE SAMPLETotal 2006 SPLIT

Page 127: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LIKELY

Likely Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS

Reg Rep Not ID Rep

Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Mod erate

Conser vative

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement StronglyTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)33 Govt background 38 39 51 32 22 51 20 35 23 43 56 38 21Biz background 37 37 23 36 60 23 57 34 47 29 17 33 6134 Whitman/Wall St. 36 37 52 29 17 51 17 33 18 37 59 36 17Brown/unions 29 34 15 34 51 17 50 25 45 21 13 26 5035 Whitman/own money 30 32 44 25 15 42 17 22 23 33 46 30 18Brown/union money 32 35 14 38 58 14 57 32 51 19 14 30 5436 Single-minded gov 24 24 20 23 30 21 27 23 25 27 22 19 31 Bipartisan gov 50 49 54 47 45 53 46 49 46 48 51 56 41

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement Not StronglyTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)35 Whitman/own money 12 11 17 10 6 16 6 15 6 11 18 12 7Brown/union money 12 9 12 9 13 12 9 16 5 12 10 14 934 Whitman/Wall St. 11 9 13 9 8 11 9 13 12 11 10 13 9Brown/unions 11 9 10 10 13 10 11 12 8 12 10 11 1233 Govt background 10 10 14 10 5 13 6 10 7 10 13 11 7Biz background 9 9 8 12 9 6 13 13 18 5 9 11 736 Single-minded gov 7 8 5 11 7 6 8 9 9 8 8 6 8 Bipartisan gov 13 13 15 13 13 14 13 14 13 8 15 14 12

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement TotalTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)33 Govt background 48 49 64 42 27 64 26 45 30 53 69 49 28Biz background 46 45 31 48 69 29 70 47 64 34 26 43 6834 Whitman/Wall St. 47 46 65 39 25 62 26 47 30 48 69 49 26Brown/unions 40 43 25 43 64 26 61 38 53 32 23 37 6135 Whitman/own money 42 43 61 35 20 58 23 37 29 44 64 42 25Brown/union money 44 45 27 48 70 26 66 49 57 31 24 44 6336 Single-minded gov 31 32 25 33 38 27 36 32 34 35 30 25 39 Bipartisan gov 63 62 69 60 57 66 59 63 60 56 66 70 52

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...1st - 2ndTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)34 MW Wall St - JB Union 7 3 40 -5 -39 35 -35 9 -23 16 46 12 -3533 Govt background-Biz 2 3 33 -7 -42 35 -43 -2 -35 18 44 6 -4035 MW Own money - JB -2 -1 34 -13 -50 32 -43 -11 -27 13 40 -2 -3936 Single-Bipartisan gov -32 -30 -44 -27 -19 -39 -23 -31 -26 -21 -36 -45 -13

Page 127

IDEOLOGYTotal PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS

Page 128: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated Right Wrong

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement StronglyTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)33 Govt background 38 57 43 28 16 34 58 45 24 18 36 41 36Biz background 37 15 28 47 68 34 16 30 44 66 34 31 3934 Whitman/Wall St. 36 60 45 22 12 22 61 43 22 14 32 37 36Brown/unions 29 13 17 44 60 25 14 18 40 57 26 20 3335 Whitman/own money 30 47 39 19 14 17 49 38 23 14 23 34 30Brown/union money 32 12 20 46 67 28 10 19 46 64 33 15 3736 Single-minded gov 24 21 20 27 32 19 22 21 20 32 23 28 24 Bipartisan gov 50 52 56 49 41 46 52 55 52 42 47 45 50

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement Not StronglyTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)35 Whitman/own money 12 19 16 10 3 9 18 14 9 4 13 23 10Brown/union money 12 10 14 13 8 14 9 13 9 8 15 19 1034 Whitman/Wall St. 11 10 16 8 7 10 10 14 11 7 12 15 10Brown/unions 11 9 11 12 12 11 9 11 10 11 12 14 1033 Govt background 10 14 14 7 5 5 14 13 9 4 9 8 10Biz background 9 9 8 15 8 11 6 5 18 9 12 17 936 Single-minded gov 7 7 5 8 8 9 6 5 7 9 9 11 7 Bipartisan gov 13 16 13 14 12 11 17 11 18 10 13 12 13

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement TotalTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)33 Govt background 48 71 57 36 20 39 72 58 34 22 44 48 46Biz background 46 25 36 61 76 44 22 34 62 75 46 48 4834 Whitman/Wall St. 47 70 61 30 19 33 71 57 33 21 45 52 46Brown/unions 40 22 28 56 71 36 23 30 51 69 38 35 4335 Whitman/own money 42 66 54 29 16 26 68 52 32 18 36 57 40Brown/union money 44 22 34 59 75 42 20 32 56 73 47 34 4736 Single-minded gov 31 29 25 35 41 28 28 26 27 41 32 38 31 Bipartisan gov 63 67 70 63 53 57 68 66 70 52 61 57 63

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...1st - 2ndTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)34 MW Wall St - JB Union 7 48 33 -26 -52 -3 48 27 -17 -48 7 18 333 Govt background-Biz 2 46 21 -26 -56 -5 50 24 -29 -53 -2 0 -135 MW Own money - JB -2 44 20 -30 -59 -16 48 20 -24 -55 -11 23 -736 Single-Bipartisan gov -32 -39 -45 -27 -12 -28 -40 -40 -43 -11 -29 -19 -32

Page 128

Total PTY/IDEO PTYREG/IDEO STATE DIR

Page 129: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

10 8-10 6-10 0-5 0-7 BrownWhit man Und Ref

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement StronglyTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)33 Govt background 38 40 40 39 35 35 59 16 35Biz background 37 45 41 40 30 32 16 64 2234 Whitman/Wall St. 36 36 37 39 29 35 57 17 20Brown/unions 29 40 37 33 20 21 13 52 1235 Whitman/own money 30 31 32 31 27 28 48 14 19Brown/union money 32 42 39 36 25 26 12 58 1836 Single-minded gov 24 27 26 25 19 21 20 29 17 Bipartisan gov 50 48 47 48 53 52 55 45 50

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement Not StronglyTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)35 Whitman/own money 12 10 10 12 13 14 18 6 11Brown/union money 12 6 8 10 15 16 8 14 1834 Whitman/Wall St. 11 6 8 9 16 14 12 9 13Brown/unions 11 7 8 9 16 14 9 13 1333 Govt background 10 6 7 8 15 14 15 5 10Biz background 9 6 9 8 11 10 5 12 936 Single-minded gov 7 8 7 7 8 7 6 9 7 Bipartisan gov 13 9 13 13 14 14 15 13 9

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement TotalTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)33 Govt background 48 46 46 47 50 49 74 20 45Biz background 46 51 50 48 41 42 21 76 3034 Whitman/Wall St. 47 43 45 48 45 49 69 27 34Brown/unions 40 47 45 42 36 35 22 65 2535 Whitman/own money 42 41 43 43 41 42 66 20 30Brown/union money 44 48 47 46 41 42 20 72 3636 Single-minded gov 31 36 33 33 27 28 26 38 25 Bipartisan gov 63 58 60 62 67 66 69 57 58

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...1st - 2ndTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)34 MW Wall St - JB Union 7 -5 0 6 9 14 47 -38 833 Govt background-Biz 2 -5 -3 -1 8 7 53 -56 1535 MW Own money - JB -2 -7 -4 -3 0 1 47 -52 -636 Single-Bipartisan gov -32 -22 -27 -29 -40 -38 -44 -20 -34

Page 129

Total ENTHUSIASM GOV VOTE

Page 130: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement StronglyTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)33 Govt background 38 68 50 46 48 35 20 19 13 63 47 29 15 35Biz background 37 10 23 23 22 30 43 52 68 14 23 36 64 3134 Whitman/Wall St. 36 68 53 34 27 28 21 17 15 64 31 25 16 27Brown/unions 29 12 14 13 17 17 28 36 61 13 15 22 54 1935 Whitman/own money 30 61 35 37 18 21 12 15 13 54 29 17 14 22Brown/union money 32 8 14 15 23 26 41 44 64 10 19 32 58 2736 Single-minded gov 24 20 15 17 30 24 18 26 31 19 23 21 29 22 Bipartisan gov 50 55 58 53 50 48 48 50 41 56 52 48 43 49

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement Not StronglyTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)35 Whitman/own money 12 15 22 19 24 8 7 17 3 17 21 8 7 13Brown/union money 12 4 13 11 13 16 30 15 10 7 12 22 11 1834 Whitman/Wall St. 11 10 15 15 13 13 14 14 6 11 15 13 8 14Brown/unions 11 3 12 18 22 10 23 21 8 6 20 16 11 1733 Govt background 10 15 13 20 12 8 8 8 4 14 17 8 5 11Biz background 9 4 7 7 9 10 21 15 10 5 8 15 12 1236 Single-minded gov 7 6 5 10 4 6 12 8 8 6 7 8 8 8 Bipartisan gov 13 13 19 16 11 10 17 9 13 15 14 13 12 14

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement TotalTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)33 Govt background 48 82 63 67 60 43 28 26 17 77 64 36 20 47Biz background 46 14 30 30 31 41 64 66 79 18 30 51 75 4334 Whitman/Wall St. 47 78 68 50 40 40 35 30 22 75 46 38 24 41Brown/unions 40 15 26 31 39 27 51 57 68 18 34 37 65 3635 Whitman/own money 42 76 57 56 42 30 19 32 16 71 50 25 21 34Brown/union money 44 13 28 27 36 42 70 58 73 17 30 54 69 4636 Single-minded gov 31 27 20 27 34 30 29 34 39 25 30 30 38 30 Bipartisan gov 63 68 77 69 61 58 66 59 55 71 66 61 56 63

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...1st - 2ndTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)34 MW Wall St - JB Union 7 63 42 18 1 14 -16 -26 -47 57 11 1 -41 533 Govt background-Biz 2 68 34 37 29 2 -36 -40 -61 59 34 -14 -55 335 MW Own money - JB -2 63 29 30 6 -13 -51 -27 -57 54 20 -29 -49 -1136 Single-Bipartisan gov -32 -42 -57 -42 -28 -27 -36 -25 -15 -46 -36 -31 -18 -33

Page 130

Total BROWN VCS

Page 131: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement StronglyTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)33 Govt background 38 12 15 17 33 38 44 45 64 13 25 41 58 35Biz background 37 72 55 51 51 21 22 25 11 68 51 21 15 3234 Whitman/Wall St. 36 14 14 19 38 20 27 48 66 14 28 23 60 25Brown/unions 29 64 44 32 24 16 17 12 12 60 28 17 12 2135 Whitman/own money 30 13 13 15 15 19 31 31 57 13 15 25 49 21Brown/union money 32 66 49 49 41 15 22 19 10 62 45 18 13 2836 Single-minded gov 24 31 26 23 28 26 14 16 21 30 26 20 19 22 Bipartisan gov 50 43 50 43 45 46 56 58 52 45 44 51 54 48

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement Not StronglyTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)35 Whitman/own money 12 3 16 5 9 16 16 20 15 6 7 16 16 13Brown/union money 12 10 17 25 25 13 15 13 5 11 25 14 7 1834 Whitman/Wall St. 11 5 14 18 14 12 15 14 10 7 16 14 11 14Brown/unions 11 7 21 22 16 12 22 13 4 11 19 17 7 1833 Govt background 10 3 10 8 2 12 16 12 15 5 5 14 14 11Biz background 9 9 16 21 11 9 11 9 5 11 16 10 6 1236 Single-minded gov 7 8 7 15 7 4 9 6 7 8 11 6 7 8 Bipartisan gov 13 12 10 15 17 8 17 17 14 12 16 12 15 14

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement TotalTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)33 Govt background 48 15 25 25 36 50 61 57 79 17 30 55 72 46Biz background 46 82 71 73 62 30 33 34 16 79 67 31 21 4434 Whitman/Wall St. 47 19 28 37 52 32 42 62 76 21 44 37 72 40Brown/unions 40 72 65 54 40 28 39 26 15 70 47 33 18 3835 Whitman/own money 42 16 30 20 24 35 48 51 72 19 22 41 66 34Brown/union money 44 76 65 75 65 29 37 32 15 73 70 33 20 4736 Single-minded gov 31 39 33 38 35 30 23 22 27 38 37 27 26 31 Bipartisan gov 63 55 59 58 62 54 73 75 66 56 60 63 69 62

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...1st - 2ndTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)34 MW Wall St - JB Union 7 -53 -37 -17 12 4 3 36 61 -49 -3 3 53 133 Govt background-Biz 2 -66 -46 -48 -26 20 28 23 64 -62 -37 24 51 135 MW Own money - JB -2 -59 -36 -55 -41 6 10 19 57 -54 -48 8 46 -1336 Single-Bipartisan gov -32 -16 -26 -20 -27 -24 -50 -53 -39 -18 -23 -36 -43 -31

Page 131

Total WHITMAN VCS

Page 132: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Brown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

better

Govt back

groundBiz back ground

Brown better

Whit man

better Boxer Fiorina DK/ Ref

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement StronglyTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)33 Govt background 38 58 15 60 18 60 21 79 0 65 19 51 22 28Biz background 37 16 68 18 61 18 59 0 80 16 60 23 58 2834 Whitman/Wall St. 36 57 17 56 21 58 21 52 21 60 21 53 16 21Brown/unions 29 13 58 16 51 15 49 14 48 14 49 15 53 1635 Whitman/own money 30 47 16 47 17 52 17 44 18 53 16 43 16 16Brown/union money 32 17 59 17 55 12 55 16 51 13 54 16 58 2136 Single-minded gov 24 20 29 22 29 20 29 23 26 23 27 19 30 19 Bipartisan gov 50 56 43 51 48 52 47 54 45 53 47 55 44 41

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement Not StronglyTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)35 Whitman/own money 12 18 6 18 8 18 9 17 8 17 9 17 6 10Brown/union money 12 8 14 9 12 7 13 10 13 7 13 12 11 1534 Whitman/Wall St. 11 12 8 12 9 10 10 12 10 9 10 13 9 9Brown/unions 11 10 11 9 13 10 12 11 11 9 12 9 12 1433 Govt background 10 14 3 12 8 13 6 21 0 12 7 13 6 8Biz background 9 7 12 7 10 6 11 0 20 5 12 8 12 936 Single-minded gov 7 6 8 7 7 7 7 6 8 7 8 6 8 13 Bipartisan gov 13 14 16 15 12 17 12 12 16 13 12 14 13 12

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement TotalTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)33 Govt background 48 73 19 73 26 73 27 100 0 77 26 64 28 36Biz background 46 23 80 25 71 24 70 0 100 21 71 30 69 3634 Whitman/Wall St. 47 69 25 68 30 68 31 64 31 69 31 66 25 29Brown/unions 40 24 69 25 63 24 61 25 59 23 61 24 65 3135 Whitman/own money 42 65 22 65 25 70 25 61 26 70 25 60 22 26Brown/union money 44 24 74 26 68 20 68 26 64 19 68 28 68 3536 Single-minded gov 31 26 37 29 36 27 36 29 34 30 36 25 38 32 Bipartisan gov 63 70 59 66 60 69 59 67 61 66 59 69 57 53

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...1st - 2ndTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)34 MW Wall St - JB Union 7 45 -44 43 -34 44 -29 39 -29 46 -30 42 -41 -133 Govt background-Biz 2 50 -61 47 -45 49 -43 100 -100 56 -46 34 -41 -135 MW Own money - JB -2 41 -52 39 -42 51 -42 35 -39 50 -42 32 -46 -936 Single-Bipartisan gov -32 -44 -22 -37 -24 -42 -23 -38 -27 -36 -24 -44 -18 -22

Page 132

ENERGY BCKGRND ECONOMY SEN VOTETotal UNDERSTAND CLEAR PLAN

Page 133: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement StronglyTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)33 Govt background 38 62 46 33 38 37 47 20 16 57 36 42 17 38Biz background 37 14 24 31 39 20 29 44 65 17 35 24 61 3134 Whitman/Wall St. 36 65 44 43 35 25 23 22 14 59 39 24 16 33Brown/unions 29 12 17 15 20 16 27 29 59 14 18 21 53 1935 Whitman/own money 30 54 39 24 27 23 22 12 15 50 26 23 14 25Brown/union money 32 11 12 24 33 13 35 41 63 11 28 23 59 2636 Single-minded gov 24 22 11 18 26 35 19 23 29 18 22 28 28 24 Bipartisan gov 50 53 67 49 52 33 51 58 40 57 50 41 44 47

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement Not StronglyTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)35 Whitman/own money 12 17 17 22 12 11 12 11 4 17 17 11 5 15Brown/union money 12 6 20 17 13 11 25 22 7 10 15 17 10 1634 Whitman/Wall St. 11 11 12 22 12 15 3 17 6 11 17 9 8 14Brown/unions 11 4 16 11 17 9 31 17 9 7 14 19 11 1633 Govt background 10 13 15 18 6 12 5 12 4 14 12 9 6 11Biz background 9 4 10 14 8 6 15 13 11 6 11 10 11 1136 Single-minded gov 7 6 3 11 2 10 14 2 10 5 7 12 8 9 Bipartisan gov 13 13 14 16 15 9 11 9 15 14 15 10 13 13

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement TotalTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)33 Govt background 48 76 61 51 44 50 51 32 21 71 48 50 23 49Biz background 46 19 35 46 48 26 44 57 76 24 47 34 72 4234 Whitman/Wall St. 47 75 56 64 47 40 26 39 20 70 56 34 24 47Brown/unions 40 16 33 27 37 25 57 46 68 21 32 40 64 3535 Whitman/own money 42 71 56 46 39 34 34 23 19 67 43 34 20 39Brown/union money 44 17 32 41 46 24 59 63 70 22 43 41 68 4236 Single-minded gov 31 28 15 29 28 45 33 25 39 24 29 40 36 33 Bipartisan gov 63 67 82 65 66 42 63 67 55 71 66 52 57 60

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...1st - 2ndTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)34 MW Wall St - JB Union 7 60 24 38 10 15 -31 -7 -48 49 24 -7 -40 1233 Govt background-Biz 2 57 26 6 -4 23 7 -25 -55 48 1 16 -49 735 MW Own money - JB -2 54 24 5 -7 10 -26 -40 -51 45 -1 -7 -49 -336 Single-Bipartisan gov -32 -39 -67 -36 -38 4 -29 -42 -16 -47 -37 -12 -21 -27

Page 133

Total BOXER VCS

Page 134: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement StronglyTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)33 Govt background 38 16 19 52 35 31 42 61 16 53 33 55 37Biz background 37 66 46 27 34 32 26 15 63 24 33 19 3134 Whitman/Wall St. 36 14 21 20 29 40 41 63 15 24 34 56 32Brown/unions 29 62 36 27 18 18 16 12 58 23 18 13 1935 Whitman/own money 30 15 9 26 23 22 36 53 14 31 22 48 24Brown/union money 32 66 46 33 26 24 15 12 63 27 25 13 2636 Single-minded gov 24 30 26 22 24 18 11 22 30 32 22 18 24 Bipartisan gov 50 41 55 57 48 49 64 52 43 47 48 56 48

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement Not StronglyTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)35 Whitman/own money 12 4 9 9 10 20 17 17 5 14 14 17 14Brown/union money 12 7 21 25 12 21 19 6 9 21 16 10 1734 Whitman/Wall St. 11 6 22 4 10 18 13 11 9 10 14 11 13Brown/unions 11 9 11 35 14 13 16 4 9 31 14 8 1733 Govt background 10 4 14 6 7 15 14 13 6 10 11 13 11Biz background 9 11 15 15 8 12 12 5 12 11 10 7 1036 Single-minded gov 7 9 1 14 6 11 5 7 8 11 8 6 9 Bipartisan gov 13 14 8 7 12 15 16 13 13 10 13 14 13

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement TotalTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)33 Govt background 48 20 33 57 42 47 56 74 22 63 44 68 48Biz background 46 78 61 42 42 44 37 20 75 35 43 26 4134 Whitman/Wall St. 47 20 43 24 39 58 53 74 23 34 47 67 45Brown/unions 40 71 47 62 32 31 32 16 67 55 32 21 3635 Whitman/own money 42 19 18 35 33 41 52 70 19 45 37 64 38Brown/union money 44 72 67 58 38 45 34 17 72 48 41 23 4236 Single-minded gov 31 40 27 36 30 30 16 28 38 43 30 24 33 Bipartisan gov 63 55 63 64 60 64 81 65 57 57 61 70 61

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...1st - 2ndTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)34 MW Wall St - JB Union 7 -51 -3 -38 7 26 21 58 -44 -20 16 46 933 Govt background-Biz 2 -58 -28 16 0 3 19 54 -53 28 1 43 635 MW Own money - JB -2 -54 -49 -23 -5 -3 18 53 -53 -3 -5 42 -436 Single-Bipartisan gov -32 -16 -37 -28 -29 -34 -65 -36 -19 -14 -31 -45 -28

Page 134

Total FIORINA VCS

Page 135: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Support Obama

Oppose Obama

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better Favor Oppose

Impor tant

Not Impor tant

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement StronglyTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)33 Govt background 38 49 21 55 20 55 20 55 21 33 46 45 16Biz background 37 24 63 21 59 20 62 21 59 45 30 28 6434 Whitman/Wall St. 36 50 17 53 19 56 16 55 17 28 48 43 16Brown/unions 29 16 58 15 54 15 58 16 56 40 23 21 5635 Whitman/own money 30 41 13 46 17 48 16 49 17 23 40 36 14Brown/union money 32 18 62 15 58 14 61 15 58 43 25 23 6236 Single-minded gov 24 22 30 21 29 21 31 22 30 29 20 20 34 Bipartisan gov 50 53 43 51 45 53 45 52 43 45 55 53 39

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement Not StronglyTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)35 Whitman/own money 12 16 7 18 7 17 6 17 6 12 14 14 5Brown/union money 12 12 10 11 9 10 9 9 11 11 11 13 934 Whitman/Wall St. 11 13 6 13 9 12 7 11 9 9 10 12 8Brown/unions 11 11 10 11 10 9 11 9 10 14 7 11 1133 Govt background 10 13 4 14 6 14 6 13 6 8 13 11 6Biz background 9 9 9 7 10 8 9 7 11 11 7 9 1036 Single-minded gov 7 6 10 6 8 6 9 7 9 6 8 7 8 Bipartisan gov 13 14 12 16 13 16 12 15 14 15 13 14 13

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement TotalTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)33 Govt background 48 62 24 69 26 69 26 68 27 40 59 56 22Biz background 46 33 71 27 70 28 71 28 70 56 37 37 7434 Whitman/Wall St. 47 62 22 66 27 68 24 65 26 37 58 55 23Brown/unions 40 27 68 25 64 24 69 25 66 54 30 32 6735 Whitman/own money 42 58 19 64 25 66 22 66 23 35 54 50 19Brown/union money 44 30 73 26 67 24 70 23 69 54 35 35 7036 Single-minded gov 31 27 39 27 37 27 40 28 39 35 28 27 42 Bipartisan gov 63 68 55 68 58 69 56 67 57 60 68 67 52

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...1st - 2ndTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)34 MW Wall St - JB Union 7 36 -46 41 -36 45 -45 40 -40 -17 28 23 -4433 Govt background-Biz 2 29 -47 42 -43 41 -45 40 -43 -16 21 19 -5235 MW Own money - JB -2 27 -53 38 -42 41 -48 43 -46 -19 18 15 -5136 Single-Bipartisan gov -32 -40 -16 -40 -21 -42 -16 -38 -18 -25 -40 -40 -9

Page 135

SHARE VALUES JOBS ECON PROP 23 GW IMPTTotal SENTYPE CHANGE

Page 136: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

White Black Latino Asian Men Women Men Women Men Women

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement StronglyTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)33 Govt background 38 38 50 33 45 37 38 37 38 31 35Biz background 37 35 21 43 32 37 36 36 35 45 4334 Whitman/Wall St. 36 38 30 32 31 34 38 36 39 32 32Brown/unions 29 31 26 27 19 32 27 34 28 29 2535 Whitman/own money 30 31 29 26 28 32 28 34 29 26 27Brown/union money 32 34 23 31 20 34 31 35 33 36 2736 Single-minded gov 24 20 28 32 23 25 22 22 19 37 28 Bipartisan gov 50 53 40 39 54 46 53 49 57 35 41

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement Not StronglyTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)35 Whitman/own money 12 12 12 14 15 11 13 11 13 12 16Brown/union money 12 10 20 12 24 9 14 8 12 8 1534 Whitman/Wall St. 11 10 15 13 24 9 12 8 11 11 14Brown/unions 11 10 13 14 17 11 10 10 9 14 1433 Govt background 10 11 7 7 11 8 12 9 14 4 9Biz background 9 10 13 9 6 13 6 14 6 12 636 Single-minded gov 7 7 18 7 4 8 7 8 6 6 8 Bipartisan gov 13 14 5 15 16 14 13 15 12 12 16

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement TotalTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)33 Govt background 48 49 57 40 56 45 50 46 52 35 44Biz background 46 45 34 52 38 49 43 49 42 57 4934 Whitman/Wall St. 47 48 45 44 55 43 50 44 51 43 45Brown/unions 40 40 39 41 36 44 37 44 37 42 4035 Whitman/own money 42 43 41 41 43 43 42 45 42 38 43Brown/union money 44 44 43 43 45 43 45 43 45 44 4236 Single-minded gov 31 28 46 40 27 33 29 30 25 44 36 Bipartisan gov 63 67 45 53 70 60 65 64 69 48 57

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...1st - 2ndTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)34 MW Wall St - JB Union 7 7 6 4 19 0 13 0 14 1 633 Govt background-Biz 2 4 23 -12 18 -4 7 -3 10 -22 -535 MW Own money - JB -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 -3 2 -4 -6 036 Single-Bipartisan gov -32 -39 1 -13 -43 -27 -37 -34 -44 -4 -21

Page 136

WHT GEN LAT GENTotal RACE GENDER

Page 137: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement StronglyTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)33 Govt background 38 35 32 36 41 41 34 41Biz background 37 35 39 40 33 38 38 3534 Whitman/Wall St. 36 38 41 32 39 33 37 36Brown/unions 29 23 27 34 29 32 28 3135 Whitman/own money 30 27 21 29 37 31 26 35Brown/union money 32 27 32 38 32 34 33 3336 Single-minded gov 24 28 24 19 22 25 24 23 Bipartisan gov 50 44 55 51 51 49 50 50

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement Not StronglyTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)35 Whitman/own money 12 15 20 12 9 8 15 9Brown/union money 12 22 17 9 8 7 16 734 Whitman/Wall St. 11 15 11 8 9 10 12 10Brown/unions 11 16 10 16 8 7 14 733 Govt background 10 9 9 13 12 7 10 10Biz background 9 15 13 5 9 6 11 836 Single-minded gov 7 11 1 11 7 6 8 6 Bipartisan gov 13 15 16 15 12 11 15 12

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement TotalTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)33 Govt background 48 45 41 48 53 49 45 51Biz background 46 49 52 45 42 44 49 4334 Whitman/Wall St. 47 53 53 40 48 43 48 46Brown/unions 40 38 38 50 37 39 42 3835 Whitman/own money 42 42 40 41 47 39 41 43Brown/union money 44 49 49 47 39 40 48 4036 Single-minded gov 31 39 25 30 29 31 32 30 Bipartisan gov 63 59 70 66 63 60 65 62

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...1st - 2ndTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)34 MW Wall St - JB Union 7 15 15 -10 11 4 6 833 Govt background-Biz 2 -5 -11 3 11 4 -4 835 MW Own money - JB -2 -7 -8 -6 7 -1 -7 436 Single-Bipartisan gov -32 -20 -45 -35 -34 -30 -33 -32

Page 137

Total AGE

Page 138: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over 18-29 30-4950 and

over 18-4950 and

over

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement StronglyTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)33 Govt background 38 32 28 35 44 41 32 42 33 30 37 32 37Biz background 37 32 38 38 31 39 37 35 41 51 38 46 3834 Whitman/Wall St. 36 47 48 31 40 32 40 37 33 30 35 32 35Brown/unions 29 20 27 38 30 33 30 31 26 30 26 27 2635 Whitman/own money 30 30 19 29 38 31 26 35 27 22 32 25 32Brown/union money 32 28 33 42 32 35 36 33 31 31 30 31 3036 Single-minded gov 24 21 16 16 22 23 17 23 35 33 27 34 27 Bipartisan gov 50 53 61 55 53 50 57 52 33 39 47 36 47

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement Not StronglyTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)35 Whitman/own money 12 14 22 13 9 8 16 9 16 14 13 15 13Brown/union money 12 20 19 8 8 6 14 7 16 11 7 14 734 Whitman/Wall St. 11 11 10 9 10 9 10 10 17 9 10 13 10Brown/unions 11 16 7 16 7 7 13 7 14 17 10 15 1033 Govt background 10 12 11 15 13 7 13 10 7 5 8 6 8Biz background 9 19 18 4 8 6 12 8 11 5 10 9 1036 Single-minded gov 7 12 1 11 6 6 8 6 11 5 6 8 6 Bipartisan gov 13 11 22 16 11 12 16 12 18 12 13 15 13

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement TotalTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)33 Govt background 48 44 39 51 56 48 45 53 40 34 46 38 46Biz background 46 51 56 43 40 46 49 42 52 57 49 54 4934 Whitman/Wall St. 47 58 58 39 50 41 50 46 50 39 45 45 45Brown/unions 40 36 33 54 38 40 43 39 40 47 36 43 3635 Whitman/own money 42 45 42 42 47 39 43 43 42 36 45 40 45Brown/union money 44 49 52 50 40 41 50 40 47 42 37 45 3736 Single-minded gov 31 34 17 28 29 29 26 29 46 38 33 42 33 Bipartisan gov 63 64 83 71 64 62 73 63 51 51 59 51 59

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...1st - 2ndTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)34 MW Wall St - JB Union 7 22 25 -15 12 1 7 7 10 -8 9 2 933 Govt background-Biz 2 -7 -17 8 17 2 -4 10 -12 -22 -3 -16 -335 MW Own money - JB -2 -4 -10 -7 7 -2 -7 3 -5 -5 7 -5 736 Single-Bipartisan gov -32 -30 -66 -43 -35 -34 -48 -35 -5 -13 -27 -9 -27

Page 138

Total WHT AGE LAT AGE

Page 139: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Young Women

Young Men

Older Women

Older Men

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement StronglyTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)33 Govt background 38 32 37 44 38 36 38 37 40 37 38Biz background 37 40 36 34 37 44 37 37 30 39 3434 Whitman/Wall St. 36 39 34 38 35 29 39 34 42 35 37Brown/unions 29 26 31 28 34 30 27 32 28 28 3135 Whitman/own money 30 22 30 34 36 31 26 30 37 28 33Brown/union money 32 30 36 32 33 29 38 30 30 35 3036 Single-minded gov 24 20 28 24 22 26 28 22 18 27 20 Bipartisan gov 50 56 42 50 50 42 48 51 56 46 54

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement Not StronglyTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)35 Whitman/own money 12 16 14 10 8 12 11 15 11 11 13Brown/union money 12 19 12 9 5 10 12 12 10 12 1134 Whitman/Wall St. 11 12 12 12 7 9 10 10 14 10 12Brown/unions 11 13 15 7 7 13 12 10 7 13 933 Govt background 10 14 7 10 10 7 9 11 14 8 12Biz background 9 6 16 7 9 6 9 10 11 8 1036 Single-minded gov 7 7 9 6 7 9 6 8 7 7 7 Bipartisan gov 13 13 18 13 11 16 12 14 14 13 14

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement TotalTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)33 Govt background 48 46 44 54 48 43 46 48 54 45 51Biz background 46 45 52 40 46 50 46 47 40 48 4434 Whitman/Wall St. 47 51 46 50 41 38 49 44 56 45 49Brown/unions 40 39 46 35 41 43 40 43 35 41 3935 Whitman/own money 42 39 44 44 43 42 37 44 48 39 46Brown/union money 44 49 48 41 38 40 50 43 41 46 4236 Single-minded gov 31 27 37 30 29 35 34 29 24 34 27 Bipartisan gov 63 69 60 62 61 57 60 65 70 59 67

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...1st - 2ndTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)34 MW Wall St - JB Union 7 12 0 15 0 -5 9 1 21 4 1033 Govt background-Biz 2 1 -9 13 2 -8 0 1 14 -3 635 MW Own money - JB -2 -10 -4 2 5 3 -13 2 7 -7 436 Single-Bipartisan gov -32 -42 -23 -32 -32 -22 -26 -36 -46 -25 -40

Page 139

Total GENDER/AGE EDUCATION

Page 140: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Non College College

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement StronglyTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)33 Govt background 38 35 36 39 40 36 39 32 37 38 37 36 40Biz background 37 47 38 34 28 41 31 43 45 41 33 38 3434 Whitman/Wall St. 36 27 41 35 44 36 39 33 30 37 31 33 44Brown/unions 29 37 30 31 28 32 30 25 34 30 35 27 2635 Whitman/own money 30 28 27 32 37 27 34 27 26 30 34 25 32Brown/union money 32 38 41 29 30 40 30 32 30 36 33 33 2836 Single-minded gov 24 22 25 19 16 24 18 34 28 29 22 26 18 Bipartisan gov 50 49 51 54 57 51 55 36 48 43 49 48 58

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement Not StronglyTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)35 Whitman/own money 12 8 11 15 12 10 13 16 9 10 12 13 14Brown/union money 12 8 9 12 10 9 11 11 14 9 8 14 1434 Whitman/Wall St. 11 8 9 10 12 8 11 13 11 7 12 13 11Brown/unions 11 10 11 10 6 11 9 15 11 13 9 12 833 Govt background 10 9 9 12 15 9 13 8 2 4 12 11 13Biz background 9 5 10 11 12 8 11 8 12 12 13 5 836 Single-minded gov 7 9 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 8 8 7 6 Bipartisan gov 13 14 13 13 15 13 14 15 12 14 15 12 13

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement TotalTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)33 Govt background 48 44 45 51 55 45 53 40 39 42 49 48 53Biz background 46 52 48 44 40 49 42 51 57 53 47 43 4234 Whitman/Wall St. 47 35 50 45 56 45 50 45 42 44 43 46 55Brown/unions 40 47 41 41 34 43 38 40 45 43 45 39 3535 Whitman/own money 42 35 38 46 49 37 48 42 35 40 46 38 46Brown/union money 44 46 50 41 40 49 41 43 44 46 41 47 4236 Single-minded gov 31 31 30 27 24 31 25 42 34 36 30 32 25 Bipartisan gov 63 63 64 68 72 64 69 51 60 57 64 60 71

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...1st - 2ndTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)34 MW Wall St - JB Union 7 -13 8 3 22 2 12 6 -4 1 -2 7 2033 Govt background-Biz 2 -8 -3 6 15 -4 10 -11 -18 -11 2 4 1135 MW Own money - JB -2 -11 -12 5 9 -12 7 -1 -9 -6 5 -9 336 Single-Bipartisan gov -32 -32 -33 -41 -48 -33 -44 -9 -25 -21 -34 -28 -46

Page 140

GENDER/EDUCTotal WHT EDUC LAT EDUC

Page 141: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement StronglyTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)33 Govt background 38 37 37 34 41 37 32 38 45 33 31 38 46Biz background 37 41 32 41 31 39 37 41 31 41 34 41 3034 Whitman/Wall St. 36 39 34 35 44 38 36 33 40 44 38 32 40Brown/unions 29 35 33 30 26 27 30 29 31 33 28 31 3135 Whitman/own money 30 31 36 24 33 23 29 33 37 19 31 33 36Brown/union money 32 41 31 39 29 36 29 33 32 47 28 35 3136 Single-minded gov 24 24 20 24 16 31 16 23 24 27 11 21 24 Bipartisan gov 50 47 50 54 60 45 56 49 51 52 60 51 52

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement Not StronglyTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)35 Whitman/own money 12 9 13 11 14 14 17 8 10 14 18 7 10Brown/union money 12 8 8 10 13 16 15 7 8 13 15 6 834 Whitman/Wall St. 11 5 10 12 11 8 15 11 8 2 15 12 8Brown/unions 11 11 10 10 8 17 10 8 7 17 10 7 733 Govt background 10 4 12 14 14 7 15 10 10 7 17 10 10Biz background 9 14 14 4 8 10 11 5 10 13 12 4 1036 Single-minded gov 7 8 8 6 6 7 9 7 6 7 9 6 6 Bipartisan gov 13 16 15 11 13 12 18 14 10 11 20 14 10

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement TotalTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)33 Govt background 48 41 50 48 55 43 47 48 55 40 49 49 56Biz background 46 54 46 45 39 49 48 46 41 54 46 45 4034 Whitman/Wall St. 47 43 45 46 55 46 51 44 48 46 53 44 48Brown/unions 40 46 43 41 34 44 40 37 38 50 38 38 3935 Whitman/own money 42 39 49 35 47 37 46 41 46 33 50 40 46Brown/union money 44 49 39 49 42 52 44 39 40 60 43 41 3936 Single-minded gov 31 32 29 29 22 38 25 29 30 34 20 28 30 Bipartisan gov 63 63 65 64 73 57 74 62 61 64 80 65 62

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...1st - 2ndTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)34 MW Wall St - JB Union 7 -3 2 6 21 2 10 7 9 -3 15 6 933 Govt background-Biz 2 -13 4 3 16 -6 -1 2 14 -14 3 3 1635 MW Own money - JB -2 -10 10 -14 5 -15 2 1 6 -27 7 -1 736 Single-Bipartisan gov -32 -30 -37 -35 -51 -20 -49 -33 -32 -30 -60 -38 -32

Page 141

Total WHT GEN/EDUC AGE/EDUC WHT AGE/EDUC

Page 142: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

MemberHhold

memberNo

memberTotal Union Member

Hhold member

No member

Total Union Member

No member

Total Union

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement StronglyTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)33 Govt background 38 46 41 37 42 46 41 36 43 45 37 40Biz background 37 30 31 38 34 25 38 37 32 42 40 3834 Whitman/Wall St. 36 45 36 35 41 45 34 37 41 44 31 39Brown/unions 29 24 26 30 27 24 30 32 27 22 27 2635 Whitman/own money 30 35 31 30 33 41 34 30 38 24 30 23Brown/union money 32 28 31 34 30 28 37 35 31 29 30 2636 Single-minded gov 24 22 14 24 20 19 17 21 19 28 32 22 Bipartisan gov 50 54 51 50 48 57 58 54 52 47 43 41

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement Not StronglyTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)35 Whitman/own money 12 13 8 12 11 14 6 12 11 12 13 10Brown/union money 12 8 16 11 11 6 14 10 8 12 13 1734 Whitman/Wall St. 11 11 12 10 11 13 13 9 13 7 14 8Brown/unions 11 6 8 12 6 5 8 10 5 8 15 733 Govt background 10 9 4 11 8 11 5 12 10 3 8 4Biz background 9 7 10 10 8 10 9 10 9 1 9 536 Single-minded gov 7 9 12 7 10 8 11 7 9 12 6 11 Bipartisan gov 13 10 15 13 15 13 9 13 16 4 13 13

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement TotalTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)33 Govt background 48 54 45 47 49 57 46 48 52 49 45 44Biz background 46 37 41 47 42 35 47 47 41 43 49 4434 Whitman/Wall St. 47 56 48 46 52 58 46 46 54 51 45 48Brown/unions 40 30 34 42 33 30 38 43 32 30 42 3335 Whitman/own money 42 49 39 42 43 55 40 42 49 35 44 34Brown/union money 44 36 47 45 41 34 51 46 40 41 44 4336 Single-minded gov 31 31 26 31 30 26 28 28 28 40 38 34 Bipartisan gov 63 64 66 63 63 70 66 67 68 51 56 55

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...1st - 2ndTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)34 MW Wall St - JB Union 7 27 14 3 20 29 9 3 22 22 3 1533 Govt background-Biz 2 17 4 0 7 22 -1 2 11 6 -4 135 MW Own money - JB -2 13 -9 -3 2 21 -11 -4 9 -5 0 -1036 Single-Bipartisan gov -32 -34 -40 -32 -33 -44 -38 -39 -40 -11 -17 -21

Page 142

NONWT UNIONTotal UNION WHT UNION

Page 143: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Married Single

Sep Divor ced

Wid owed

Sep Div Wid

Unmarr ied

Married Women

Unmarr ied

WomenMarried

MenUnmarr ied Men

Voted in person

Voted by mail

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement StronglyTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)33 Govt background 38 37 37 39 47 42 39 37 40 38 37 38 38Biz background 37 39 35 32 26 30 33 42 29 36 38 35 3834 Whitman/Wall St. 36 36 37 40 36 38 37 38 39 33 36 38 34Brown/unions 29 33 23 28 24 26 24 29 25 38 24 28 3235 Whitman/own money 30 30 26 41 33 38 31 26 30 34 31 35 28Brown/union money 32 34 32 29 25 27 30 34 27 34 35 29 3636 Single-minded gov 24 22 27 24 22 23 25 21 24 24 27 24 21 Bipartisan gov 50 52 44 46 51 48 46 56 48 47 43 48 52

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement Not StronglyTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)35 Whitman/own money 12 13 13 8 10 9 12 14 13 11 10 12 11Brown/union money 12 9 19 7 7 7 15 12 15 6 14 11 1134 Whitman/Wall St. 11 10 13 9 12 10 12 10 14 9 10 11 10Brown/unions 11 10 15 9 5 7 12 12 9 7 17 12 933 Govt background 10 10 9 12 9 11 10 11 12 9 6 11 10Biz background 9 9 11 10 4 8 10 5 7 12 14 10 836 Single-minded gov 7 6 10 9 7 8 10 5 9 7 10 8 6 Bipartisan gov 13 14 14 13 10 11 13 13 12 15 14 14 14

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement TotalTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)33 Govt background 48 48 46 51 57 53 48 48 52 47 43 50 48Biz background 46 48 46 42 30 37 43 48 36 48 51 45 4534 Whitman/Wall St. 47 45 50 49 48 48 49 48 52 42 46 49 44Brown/unions 40 43 39 37 29 34 37 40 33 45 41 39 4135 Whitman/own money 42 43 39 49 43 47 42 40 43 45 41 46 39Brown/union money 44 43 51 37 32 35 45 47 42 40 49 40 4736 Single-minded gov 31 28 37 33 29 32 35 25 33 31 37 33 27 Bipartisan gov 63 66 58 59 61 60 59 70 60 62 58 61 67

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...1st - 2ndTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)34 MW Wall St - JB Union 7 2 11 11 20 15 13 8 19 -3 4 10 333 Govt background-Biz 2 0 0 9 27 16 6 1 16 -1 -8 5 335 MW Own money - JB -2 -1 -12 13 11 12 -3 -7 1 5 -8 6 -736 Single-Bipartisan gov -32 -38 -21 -25 -32 -28 -24 -45 -26 -32 -20 -29 -40

Page 143

Total MARITAL MARITAL/GENDER 2008

Page 144: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Voted in person

Voted by mail A B Cell Landline Base Latino

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement StronglyTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)33 Govt background 38 39 39 38 37 36 38 38 34Biz background 37 33 38 38 35 33 37 35 4234 Whitman/Wall St. 36 38 34 36 36 44 35 37 32Brown/unions 29 30 32 29 29 24 30 30 2635 Whitman/own money 30 35 28 30 30 34 30 31 29Brown/union money 32 29 38 34 31 32 32 34 2736 Single-minded gov 24 23 22 21 26 23 24 21 33 Bipartisan gov 50 47 52 52 47 49 50 54 34

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement Not StronglyTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)35 Whitman/own money 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 14Brown/union money 12 9 9 11 12 13 11 11 1334 Whitman/Wall St. 11 11 9 10 12 9 11 10 12Brown/unions 11 9 10 11 10 13 11 10 1333 Govt background 10 13 10 9 11 12 10 11 8Biz background 9 8 7 8 11 14 9 10 836 Single-minded gov 7 7 6 7 8 8 7 8 7 Bipartisan gov 13 15 13 13 13 16 13 12 18

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...Statement TotalTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)33 Govt background 48 52 49 48 48 48 48 49 43Biz background 46 41 45 46 46 47 46 45 5034 Whitman/Wall St. 47 49 43 47 47 54 46 48 45Brown/unions 40 39 42 41 39 38 41 41 3935 Whitman/own money 42 47 40 42 42 44 42 42 42Brown/union money 44 39 47 44 43 46 44 45 4036 Single-minded gov 31 31 28 28 33 31 31 29 39 Bipartisan gov 63 63 65 66 60 65 63 66 53

Q33-36 Summary Governor Statement Pairs...1st - 2ndTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)34 MW Wall St - JB Union 7 10 2 6 8 16 5 7 633 Govt background-Biz 2 11 4 2 1 1 2 4 -835 MW Own money - JB -2 8 -7 -2 -1 -1 -2 -3 336 Single-Bipartisan gov -32 -32 -38 -37 -27 -35 -32 -37 -14

Page 144

PHONE SAMPLETotal 2006 SPLIT

Page 145: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LIKELY

Likely Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS

Reg Rep Not ID Rep

Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Mod erate

Conser vative

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)41B Education 24 27 40 16 7 38 7 20 9 20 44 22 1039A New/green jobs 22 28 34 18 7 36 6 15 10 34 43 19 638 Immigration 19 23 32 14 5 29 7 18 13 13 35 18 840 Taxes 18 22 30 12 7 30 6 12 7 20 35 14 937 The economy 16 19 26 10 6 25 5 11 7 16 29 13 8

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)41B Education 43 47 63 36 18 60 18 43 20 40 66 47 1839A New/green jobs 38 43 57 32 16 59 15 28 18 53 62 38 1740 Taxes 37 40 59 26 15 56 13 31 14 36 61 36 1838 Immigration 37 40 55 30 15 51 17 35 24 31 56 40 1737 The economy 33 36 51 23 14 50 13 25 16 33 58 31 14

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)37 The economy 25 29 10 27 52 12 50 20 40 22 5 22 5040 Taxes 21 27 5 24 44 7 42 18 34 17 2 17 4339A New/green jobs 20 21 11 21 35 12 36 14 31 13 5 19 3541B Education 15 18 5 17 31 7 29 12 25 19 3 11 3238 Immigration 15 20 5 14 35 8 31 8 19 14 4 12 31

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)37 The economy 45 46 25 49 76 26 73 43 60 38 16 46 7239A New/green jobs 38 38 23 39 62 23 64 31 58 24 17 37 5940 Taxes 37 43 16 44 67 18 68 34 64 32 11 38 6341B Education 31 33 14 34 58 16 57 24 47 31 13 26 5538 Immigration 30 35 16 29 56 18 51 22 34 27 11 28 50

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)38 Immigration 33 25 29 41 29 31 32 43 42 42 33 32 3341B Education 26 21 23 30 24 24 26 33 33 29 21 26 2740 Taxes 25 17 25 30 19 26 19 36 22 32 28 25 1939A New/green jobs 24 19 20 29 22 18 22 41 24 23 21 25 2437 The economy 22 18 24 28 10 24 14 32 24 29 26 24 13

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)41B Education 11 14 48 2 -40 44 -39 19 -27 9 54 21 -3638 Immigration 7 6 40 0 -41 32 -34 13 -10 4 45 11 -3339A New/green jobs 1 6 34 -8 -47 37 -49 -4 -40 29 45 1 -4240 Taxes 0 -4 43 -18 -52 39 -55 -3 -50 4 50 -2 -4537 The economy -12 -10 27 -25 -61 24 -60 -17 -44 -5 42 -15 -58

Page 145

IDEOLOGYTotal PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS

Page 146: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated Right Wrong

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)41B Education 24 46 32 13 3 12 51 26 14 3 22 35 2239A New/green jobs 22 43 24 12 2 18 45 28 10 3 17 34 2038 Immigration 19 36 25 11 4 9 37 22 13 2 19 30 1840 Taxes 18 36 22 10 3 10 40 21 10 3 15 31 1737 The economy 16 30 20 11 2 10 32 19 9 3 13 28 15

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)41B Education 43 68 59 30 10 24 72 51 32 9 42 52 4139A New/green jobs 38 62 49 25 10 31 66 54 23 10 32 68 3540 Taxes 37 62 52 17 10 20 68 49 18 9 34 56 3538 Immigration 37 58 50 22 10 24 60 44 29 10 36 46 3637 The economy 33 59 41 22 7 17 63 40 21 9 28 49 31

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)37 The economy 25 5 13 38 61 20 4 18 37 60 19 12 2840 Taxes 21 2 8 34 54 16 2 12 29 52 17 7 2339A New/green jobs 20 5 16 29 39 17 7 16 31 39 15 12 2241B Education 15 3 8 19 40 11 4 10 18 36 13 7 1738 Immigration 15 3 8 22 39 9 4 11 20 39 9 7 17

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)37 The economy 45 16 33 62 85 43 15 35 59 83 41 24 4939A New/green jobs 38 17 29 54 67 33 19 26 61 67 32 21 4140 Taxes 37 10 24 60 75 36 9 25 61 74 33 19 4141B Education 31 12 16 46 68 26 11 21 42 67 24 19 3438 Immigration 30 10 20 44 61 25 12 23 39 61 24 16 33

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)38 Immigration 33 32 29 34 29 51 28 34 33 30 40 38 3141B Education 26 20 25 24 22 50 16 28 26 24 34 29 2540 Taxes 25 28 24 23 15 44 24 26 21 17 34 25 2439A New/green jobs 24 21 23 21 23 36 16 20 16 24 36 12 2437 The economy 22 24 26 17 8 39 22 25 20 8 31 27 20

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)41B Education 11 55 43 -16 -57 -1 61 31 -10 -59 17 34 738 Immigration 7 48 30 -22 -50 -2 49 21 -10 -51 12 30 339A New/green jobs 1 45 20 -28 -57 -2 47 28 -38 -57 0 47 -640 Taxes 0 52 29 -43 -65 -16 59 23 -43 -66 1 36 -537 The economy -12 43 9 -40 -78 -26 47 4 -39 -75 -13 25 -18

Page 146

Total PTY/IDEO PTYREG/IDEO STATE DIR

Page 147: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

10 8-10 6-10 0-5 0-7 BrownWhit man Und Ref

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)41B Education 24 31 30 28 14 18 47 3 739A New/green jobs 22 28 27 24 16 16 44 4 738 Immigration 19 24 21 21 15 17 37 4 740 Taxes 18 24 21 20 13 15 36 4 537 The economy 16 22 20 18 11 12 32 2 3

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)41B Education 43 41 42 46 34 43 76 9 1239A New/green jobs 38 40 40 41 32 36 71 12 2140 Taxes 37 36 38 39 34 37 68 9 1338 Immigration 37 34 36 40 29 38 66 12 1637 The economy 33 35 35 35 28 31 65 4 8

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)37 The economy 25 40 33 30 15 17 2 57 640 Taxes 21 37 29 24 12 12 1 46 539A New/green jobs 20 29 26 22 16 14 4 39 341B Education 15 28 22 18 9 9 3 36 138 Immigration 15 27 21 18 10 9 3 33 3

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)37 The economy 45 52 49 47 41 40 12 87 2739A New/green jobs 38 43 41 38 38 34 12 68 1640 Taxes 37 50 44 40 32 30 10 73 1741B Education 31 45 39 34 25 24 8 65 1638 Immigration 30 42 37 33 24 23 9 57 10

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)38 Immigration 33 24 27 28 47 39 25 31 7441B Education 26 14 19 20 40 34 16 26 7240 Taxes 25 13 18 21 34 33 22 17 7039A New/green jobs 24 17 18 21 30 30 18 20 6337 The economy 22 12 16 18 30 28 23 9 65

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)41B Education 11 -5 4 12 9 19 69 -56 -438 Immigration 7 -8 -1 7 6 15 56 -46 639A New/green jobs 1 -4 -1 3 -6 2 59 -56 540 Taxes 0 -14 -7 -2 2 7 59 -64 -437 The economy -12 -17 -15 -12 -13 -9 54 -82 -18

Page 147

Total ENTHUSIASM GOV VOTE

Page 148: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)41B Education 24 62 30 25 21 10 9 0 1 54 23 9 0 1539A New/green jobs 22 57 34 26 12 11 3 9 1 50 21 8 3 1238 Immigration 19 49 27 15 22 11 10 2 1 43 18 11 1 1340 Taxes 18 47 24 20 13 9 1 5 2 41 17 5 3 1037 The economy 16 43 22 18 14 4 3 4 0 37 16 3 2 8

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)41B Education 43 88 71 63 42 23 24 11 3 84 54 23 5 3639A New/green jobs 38 82 63 51 41 25 12 19 7 77 47 20 10 2840 Taxes 37 81 58 47 46 18 19 15 4 75 47 19 7 2938 Immigration 37 77 56 44 47 24 21 17 4 71 45 23 7 3137 The economy 33 77 53 46 54 9 8 12 1 70 49 8 4 23

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)37 The economy 25 1 5 1 5 20 22 35 66 2 3 21 57 1440 Taxes 21 0 2 3 5 10 19 25 57 1 4 14 49 1039A New/green jobs 20 2 5 2 16 20 17 21 47 3 8 19 39 1541B Education 15 1 4 6 5 0 18 14 44 1 6 8 37 738 Immigration 15 1 2 6 9 9 15 18 39 1 7 12 33 10

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)37 The economy 45 5 19 21 21 47 57 64 91 9 21 51 84 4039A New/green jobs 38 3 22 21 28 33 53 47 74 9 24 42 66 3640 Taxes 37 5 12 20 21 31 47 52 80 7 20 38 72 3141B Education 31 1 7 14 36 18 36 47 71 3 24 26 65 2538 Immigration 30 5 11 13 24 21 38 36 65 7 18 28 57 24

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)38 Immigration 33 18 32 42 29 55 41 48 31 22 37 49 36 4441B Education 26 11 22 23 21 60 40 42 25 13 22 50 30 3840 Taxes 25 15 30 33 32 51 34 34 16 19 33 44 21 4039A New/green jobs 24 15 15 28 31 41 35 34 19 15 29 39 23 3637 The economy 22 18 28 34 26 44 35 24 7 21 30 40 12 37

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)41B Education 11 86 64 49 6 5 -12 -36 -68 81 30 -3 -60 1138 Immigration 7 72 45 31 23 3 -17 -19 -61 65 28 -5 -50 739A New/green jobs 1 80 41 30 13 -8 -41 -28 -67 68 24 -22 -56 -840 Taxes 0 76 46 28 25 -13 -27 -37 -76 68 27 -19 -65 -237 The economy -12 72 33 25 33 -39 -48 -52 -90 61 28 -43 -79 -17

Page 148

Total BROWN VCS

Page 149: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)41B Education 24 1 0 12 9 15 18 23 57 1 11 17 47 1539A New/green jobs 22 2 9 4 9 6 24 28 53 4 7 14 44 1138 Immigration 19 1 2 14 9 13 15 21 45 1 12 14 38 1340 Taxes 18 2 5 2 11 8 15 19 44 3 6 11 36 1037 The economy 16 0 4 3 5 7 15 17 40 1 4 11 33 8

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)41B Education 43 3 11 19 31 28 57 54 82 5 24 42 74 3739A New/green jobs 38 7 17 13 25 23 47 53 78 9 19 34 69 2840 Taxes 37 4 13 17 23 27 38 49 76 6 20 32 68 2838 Immigration 37 4 18 27 25 29 37 45 72 7 26 33 64 3037 The economy 33 1 9 6 10 27 39 42 72 3 8 33 63 24

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)37 The economy 25 70 45 31 38 5 1 7 1 64 35 3 3 1540 Taxes 21 61 31 27 18 5 2 4 1 54 23 3 2 1039A New/green jobs 20 50 24 16 39 11 2 7 2 43 28 7 4 1641B Education 15 48 18 23 0 3 6 4 0 42 13 4 2 738 Immigration 15 41 22 20 19 6 6 3 1 37 20 6 2 11

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)37 The economy 45 96 78 70 72 20 20 26 7 91 71 20 13 3939A New/green jobs 38 77 55 59 58 19 20 23 5 72 58 20 11 3640 Taxes 37 84 61 58 51 19 19 17 5 79 55 19 9 3241B Education 31 76 56 49 24 21 18 13 2 72 38 20 5 2538 Immigration 30 69 42 44 40 15 18 13 5 62 42 16 8 26

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)38 Immigration 33 27 40 29 35 56 45 42 22 30 32 51 28 4441B Education 26 21 32 32 45 51 25 33 16 23 38 38 21 3840 Taxes 25 12 25 24 26 54 43 34 19 15 25 49 24 4039A New/green jobs 24 16 28 28 18 57 33 24 17 19 22 46 19 3637 The economy 22 3 13 23 18 53 41 32 21 6 20 47 25 37

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)41B Education 11 -73 -45 -31 7 7 38 42 80 -68 -13 23 69 1138 Immigration 7 -65 -24 -18 -15 14 19 33 67 -55 -16 17 56 439A New/green jobs 1 -71 -38 -46 -33 4 27 30 73 -62 -39 15 58 -840 Taxes 0 -80 -48 -41 -29 8 19 33 70 -73 -35 13 59 -537 The economy -12 -95 -68 -64 -62 8 19 15 65 -88 -63 13 50 -15

Page 149

Total WHITMAN VCS

Page 150: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Brown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

better

Govt back

groundBiz back ground

Brown better

Whit man

better Boxer Fiorina DK/ Ref

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)41B Education 24 47 2 52 3 55 5 41 9 56 4 39 7 939A New/green jobs 22 46 2 46 8 49 7 35 10 50 6 36 6 938 Immigration 19 40 3 41 4 43 5 28 11 46 5 33 5 440 Taxes 18 37 2 40 4 41 5 28 9 47 3 31 5 237 The economy 16 33 1 37 2 41 2 25 8 48 0 26 5 3

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)41B Education 43 78 7 79 14 83 16 64 22 83 16 65 19 1239A New/green jobs 38 71 12 75 16 78 15 57 22 78 16 59 16 1640 Taxes 37 69 8 71 15 72 17 54 21 80 14 58 13 1838 Immigration 37 67 9 68 14 68 16 52 22 73 16 57 14 1637 The economy 33 64 5 70 8 73 8 53 15 100 0 53 11 8

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)37 The economy 25 6 59 4 56 2 51 9 45 0 57 9 52 1340 Taxes 21 3 51 2 46 1 41 8 35 1 44 4 47 639A New/green jobs 20 6 44 4 40 2 39 8 33 2 40 10 37 841B Education 15 2 42 3 38 2 33 5 28 2 32 4 33 1138 Immigration 15 4 35 4 31 3 30 6 26 3 31 6 30 6

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)37 The economy 45 19 88 16 83 10 83 24 70 0 100 24 78 3039A New/green jobs 38 15 72 12 67 8 69 23 55 10 67 21 64 2440 Taxes 37 14 79 12 72 11 67 20 58 9 71 18 69 1941B Education 31 9 72 10 66 4 61 15 50 9 61 13 59 2038 Immigration 30 11 65 12 58 9 54 17 46 10 55 15 56 12

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)38 Immigration 33 22 26 21 28 23 30 31 32 17 29 28 31 7241B Education 26 13 20 12 20 13 24 21 28 8 24 22 22 6840 Taxes 25 17 12 17 13 17 16 26 21 12 15 24 18 6339A New/green jobs 24 14 17 12 17 14 16 20 23 12 17 20 20 6037 The economy 22 17 6 14 10 17 9 23 16 0 0 23 11 62

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)41B Education 11 68 -65 69 -52 79 -45 49 -28 74 -45 51 -40 -738 Immigration 7 56 -56 56 -44 59 -38 35 -24 62 -38 42 -42 539A New/green jobs 1 56 -60 63 -52 70 -53 33 -32 68 -51 38 -48 -840 Taxes 0 55 -71 58 -58 61 -50 34 -36 71 -57 40 -57 -137 The economy -12 45 -83 54 -75 64 -75 29 -55 100 -100 29 -67 -22

Page 150

ENERGY BCKGRND ECONOMY SEN VOTETotal UNDERSTAND CLEAR PLAN

Page 151: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)41B Education 24 55 23 23 17 10 22 18 2 47 20 16 5 1939A New/green jobs 22 53 22 20 18 17 4 6 5 42 19 12 5 1638 Immigration 19 45 22 15 24 7 4 11 3 38 20 6 4 1440 Taxes 18 45 18 17 17 2 6 7 4 37 17 4 4 1237 The economy 16 38 14 14 15 6 14 5 3 31 15 10 3 13

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)41B Education 43 81 47 51 42 19 35 34 10 72 47 27 14 3939A New/green jobs 38 73 53 41 39 27 7 18 15 66 40 18 16 3140 Taxes 37 74 48 44 33 20 18 20 10 66 39 19 12 3138 Immigration 37 71 43 42 46 18 24 28 8 63 44 21 12 3437 The economy 33 68 44 42 29 11 25 11 8 61 36 18 8 28

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)37 The economy 25 5 8 10 22 12 14 31 59 6 16 13 54 1440 Taxes 21 2 6 3 11 7 14 28 52 3 7 10 48 839A New/green jobs 20 9 8 15 12 0 20 27 40 8 14 8 37 1141B Education 15 2 1 9 6 17 6 25 37 2 7 11 35 938 Immigration 15 3 6 14 10 7 6 14 35 4 12 6 31 10

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)37 The economy 45 13 36 28 40 32 44 55 83 20 34 37 77 3539A New/green jobs 38 15 23 30 31 18 53 48 66 17 31 33 62 3140 Taxes 37 11 25 25 27 20 37 49 73 15 26 28 69 2741B Education 31 7 10 24 28 20 27 46 64 8 26 24 61 2538 Immigration 30 10 18 24 17 14 28 33 60 12 20 21 55 21

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)38 Immigration 33 19 39 35 37 67 47 38 32 25 36 58 33 4541B Education 26 12 43 25 31 61 38 20 26 20 28 49 25 3740 Taxes 25 15 27 31 40 60 45 32 16 19 35 53 19 4239A New/green jobs 24 12 24 29 30 55 40 34 19 16 29 49 22 3737 The economy 22 19 20 31 30 57 31 34 9 19 31 45 14 37

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)41B Education 11 75 36 27 14 -1 8 -13 -54 65 21 3 -47 1438 Immigration 7 61 26 18 29 4 -4 -5 -52 50 23 0 -43 1439A New/green jobs 1 59 30 12 7 8 -46 -30 -51 49 9 -14 -47 040 Taxes 0 64 23 20 6 0 -18 -29 -63 52 13 -9 -56 437 The economy -12 55 9 14 -11 -21 -19 -44 -75 41 2 -20 -69 -7

Page 151

Total BOXER VCS

Page 152: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)41B Education 24 2 22 24 14 21 21 54 5 21 17 45 1839A New/green jobs 22 5 5 6 12 17 20 52 5 16 14 40 1438 Immigration 19 3 13 4 16 13 20 44 4 7 15 36 1340 Taxes 18 4 9 7 11 14 16 43 5 6 12 34 1137 The economy 16 3 6 15 10 13 13 37 3 14 11 29 12

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)41B Education 43 11 37 42 28 46 42 79 14 44 37 69 3839A New/green jobs 38 14 23 10 29 33 48 72 15 23 31 63 3040 Taxes 37 10 16 20 24 39 46 72 11 23 31 64 3038 Immigration 37 8 33 26 33 38 39 69 12 25 35 60 3337 The economy 33 7 11 29 19 36 39 66 8 29 27 57 27

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)37 The economy 25 62 36 15 18 12 9 4 58 15 15 6 1540 Taxes 21 56 35 18 8 6 5 2 53 16 7 3 939A New/green jobs 20 41 33 28 9 13 10 9 40 16 11 9 1241B Education 15 39 27 7 4 14 3 2 37 12 9 2 938 Immigration 15 37 15 7 7 15 5 3 34 9 11 4 10

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)37 The economy 45 86 64 46 34 30 36 13 83 46 33 21 3539A New/green jobs 38 69 56 56 23 33 26 14 67 45 28 18 3140 Taxes 37 77 60 38 22 27 24 10 75 37 24 15 2741B Education 31 67 45 35 21 27 14 7 64 34 24 9 2638 Immigration 30 63 42 33 13 24 17 10 60 31 18 12 21

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)38 Immigration 33 29 24 41 54 38 44 21 29 44 47 28 4641B Education 26 23 18 23 51 27 45 14 22 22 39 23 3640 Taxes 25 13 24 42 53 34 30 18 15 39 44 21 4339A New/green jobs 24 17 21 34 47 33 27 14 18 32 41 19 3937 The economy 22 6 25 25 46 33 25 20 9 25 40 22 37

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)41B Education 11 -56 -8 7 8 18 28 73 -49 11 13 60 1238 Immigration 7 -55 -9 -7 20 14 22 59 -48 -6 17 47 1239A New/green jobs 1 -55 -33 -46 6 0 22 57 -52 -23 4 45 -240 Taxes 0 -67 -44 -18 2 12 23 62 -64 -14 7 49 337 The economy -12 -79 -53 -16 -15 6 3 53 -75 -16 -6 37 -8

Page 152

Total FIORINA VCS

Page 153: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Support Obama

Oppose Obama

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better Favor Oppose

Impor tant

Not Impor tant

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)41B Education 24 37 3 46 7 45 5 48 8 14 33 29 939A New/green jobs 22 33 6 42 8 40 6 43 8 15 33 27 738 Immigration 19 29 4 39 7 39 4 41 5 13 26 24 640 Taxes 18 28 3 37 6 34 5 39 4 13 23 22 637 The economy 16 25 3 32 6 30 5 34 5 10 20 20 5

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)41B Education 43 59 15 70 22 71 19 72 20 31 55 51 1839A New/green jobs 38 54 15 66 20 63 17 70 20 34 50 46 1640 Taxes 37 54 12 65 16 63 13 69 12 29 46 46 1238 Immigration 37 52 12 64 16 65 15 66 16 26 49 44 1437 The economy 33 47 11 61 13 59 12 66 11 25 43 41 11

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)37 The economy 25 10 55 8 54 8 57 7 57 32 20 16 5340 Taxes 21 6 50 5 47 4 51 2 52 28 15 11 4939A New/green jobs 20 12 34 10 37 10 40 8 40 23 16 17 3041B Education 15 6 34 5 34 4 36 5 36 21 14 9 3638 Immigration 15 5 36 6 32 5 35 6 32 22 11 10 32

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)37 The economy 45 27 78 23 78 24 80 21 81 58 36 35 7439A New/green jobs 38 24 63 19 64 19 67 17 65 44 30 31 5840 Taxes 37 20 72 17 69 17 74 16 74 48 32 27 7041B Education 31 17 61 14 60 12 64 12 63 43 25 22 6038 Immigration 30 16 59 14 57 14 60 15 58 40 23 22 53

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)38 Immigration 33 32 29 22 27 21 25 19 27 33 28 33 3341B Education 26 24 23 16 19 16 17 16 17 26 19 27 2240 Taxes 25 27 16 18 15 20 12 15 15 23 22 28 1839A New/green jobs 24 22 22 15 16 18 16 13 14 22 21 23 2637 The economy 22 26 11 16 9 17 7 14 9 17 21 24 15

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)41B Education 11 42 -46 57 -38 59 -45 60 -43 -12 30 29 -4238 Immigration 7 37 -47 50 -41 52 -45 52 -42 -14 25 22 -3839A New/green jobs 1 31 -49 48 -44 45 -50 53 -45 -11 20 14 -4240 Taxes 0 34 -60 47 -53 46 -61 53 -62 -19 15 19 -5837 The economy -12 20 -68 38 -65 35 -68 45 -70 -32 7 5 -63

Page 153

SHARE VALUES JOBS ECON PROP 23 GW IMPTTotal SENTYPE CHANGE

Page 154: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

White Black Latino Asian Men Women Men Women Men Women

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)41B Education 24 25 32 22 23 26 23 28 22 25 2039A New/green jobs 22 24 19 19 4 20 23 21 27 19 1838 Immigration 19 19 17 23 18 18 21 17 20 20 2540 Taxes 18 18 27 17 12 17 20 18 18 16 1937 The economy 16 14 27 20 9 15 17 14 15 20 20

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)41B Education 43 43 44 44 50 43 43 45 41 43 4439A New/green jobs 38 42 28 36 19 39 38 41 43 37 3540 Taxes 37 38 39 37 39 36 38 38 37 34 3938 Immigration 37 37 30 38 42 36 38 35 39 38 3737 The economy 33 33 40 36 22 33 33 34 32 31 40

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)37 The economy 25 29 14 17 21 26 25 27 30 20 1540 Taxes 21 25 12 10 14 22 20 25 24 9 1039A New/green jobs 20 21 21 15 27 20 20 20 22 18 1241B Education 15 17 13 8 16 16 15 16 18 9 638 Immigration 15 18 18 8 3 17 14 20 16 9 7

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)37 The economy 45 49 35 32 50 46 44 48 49 38 2639A New/green jobs 38 38 45 29 63 38 37 37 38 31 2640 Taxes 37 41 25 24 39 40 35 43 40 27 2141B Education 31 32 27 26 18 32 30 31 33 27 2638 Immigration 30 33 34 17 22 32 28 35 32 23 13

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)38 Immigration 33 30 36 45 36 32 34 30 30 39 5041B Education 26 25 29 30 33 25 27 24 26 30 3040 Taxes 25 21 35 39 22 24 26 20 22 39 4039A New/green jobs 24 21 28 36 18 23 25 22 19 32 3937 The economy 22 19 26 32 28 21 23 18 19 30 33

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)41B Education 11 10 16 17 32 10 12 13 8 17 1838 Immigration 7 4 -3 20 20 4 10 0 7 16 2439A New/green jobs 1 4 -17 7 -44 0 1 3 5 6 840 Taxes 0 -4 14 13 0 -4 3 -5 -3 7 1837 The economy -12 -16 5 5 -27 -13 -10 -14 -17 -7 14

Page 154

WHT GEN LAT GENTotal RACE GENDER

Page 155: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)41B Education 24 16 18 24 32 27 19 3039A New/green jobs 22 18 9 23 24 32 17 2738 Immigration 19 15 18 21 21 22 18 2140 Taxes 18 14 12 16 22 24 14 2337 The economy 16 9 7 15 20 24 11 22

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)41B Education 43 38 41 42 52 38 40 4739A New/green jobs 38 38 36 39 38 43 38 4040 Taxes 37 37 39 30 41 38 35 4038 Immigration 37 41 35 39 36 34 39 3537 The economy 33 30 28 29 39 37 29 38

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)37 The economy 25 16 22 29 26 31 23 2840 Taxes 21 10 17 27 22 26 18 2339A New/green jobs 20 11 20 23 20 24 18 2241B Education 15 11 13 22 12 20 15 1538 Immigration 15 10 9 19 15 22 13 18

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)37 The economy 45 41 40 54 44 46 45 4439A New/green jobs 38 26 38 44 41 37 36 3940 Taxes 37 26 34 48 39 39 36 3941B Education 31 29 24 37 27 38 30 3138 Immigration 30 19 26 35 33 34 27 33

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)38 Immigration 33 40 38 26 31 32 35 3141B Education 26 33 35 22 21 24 30 2240 Taxes 25 37 27 22 20 23 29 2139A New/green jobs 24 36 26 18 21 21 26 2137 The economy 22 30 31 18 17 18 26 17

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)41B Education 11 9 16 5 25 1 10 1538 Immigration 7 23 9 4 3 0 12 239A New/green jobs 1 13 -2 -5 -2 6 1 140 Taxes 0 11 5 -18 1 -1 -1 037 The economy -12 -11 -12 -25 -5 -9 -16 -6

Page 155

Total AGE

Page 156: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over 18-29 30-4950 and

over 18-4950 and

over

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)41B Education 24 14 20 21 31 26 19 29 18 16 33 17 3339A New/green jobs 22 23 6 26 24 34 19 28 15 13 32 14 3238 Immigration 19 15 18 18 20 20 17 20 19 21 29 20 2940 Taxes 18 18 5 15 21 23 13 22 11 13 30 12 3037 The economy 16 3 5 11 18 23 7 20 15 15 33 15 33

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)41B Education 43 29 37 44 53 39 38 47 47 39 45 44 4539A New/green jobs 38 45 41 41 40 44 42 42 33 32 44 33 4440 Taxes 37 41 38 30 40 37 36 39 34 30 48 33 4838 Immigration 37 40 37 40 37 33 39 35 41 33 38 37 3837 The economy 33 26 27 28 39 35 27 37 34 30 47 32 47

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)37 The economy 25 20 24 32 28 34 26 30 14 18 20 16 2040 Taxes 21 16 20 32 23 27 24 25 4 12 15 8 1539A New/green jobs 20 7 20 26 20 24 19 22 15 12 19 14 1941B Education 15 13 17 21 12 22 18 16 7 4 11 6 1138 Immigration 15 20 10 20 16 23 17 19 5 7 12 6 12

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)37 The economy 45 49 44 56 46 49 50 47 32 37 25 34 2539A New/green jobs 38 14 36 47 42 37 35 40 29 29 27 29 2740 Taxes 37 31 40 50 41 42 42 42 18 32 24 24 2441B Education 31 32 26 31 28 41 29 33 28 26 23 27 2338 Immigration 30 28 28 37 34 36 32 35 13 19 21 16 21

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)38 Immigration 33 32 35 23 29 30 29 29 47 48 41 47 4141B Education 26 38 37 25 19 20 33 20 25 35 32 29 3240 Taxes 25 28 22 20 18 21 23 20 48 38 28 43 2839A New/green jobs 24 40 23 11 18 19 22 19 37 39 29 38 2937 The economy 22 25 29 16 15 16 23 15 34 33 28 34 28

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)41B Education 11 -3 11 14 25 -2 9 13 20 13 22 17 2238 Immigration 7 11 9 3 3 -3 7 0 28 14 18 22 1839A New/green jobs 1 31 4 -6 -2 8 7 2 4 4 17 4 1740 Taxes 0 10 -2 -19 -1 -5 -6 -3 17 -1 24 9 2437 The economy -12 -23 -16 -29 -7 -14 -23 -10 2 -7 22 -2 22

Page 156

Total WHT AGE LAT AGE

Page 157: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Young Women

Young Men

Older Women

Older Men

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)41B Education 24 19 20 26 34 19 20 24 34 20 2939A New/green jobs 22 17 17 31 24 16 20 25 26 18 2638 Immigration 19 18 17 24 18 16 16 19 28 16 2340 Taxes 18 16 11 23 23 19 16 18 21 17 2037 The economy 16 12 9 21 22 19 15 13 19 17 16

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)41B Education 43 42 38 45 49 33 39 45 54 37 4939A New/green jobs 38 35 40 43 38 31 35 44 44 34 4440 Taxes 37 36 35 41 39 35 35 36 45 35 4038 Immigration 37 37 40 38 32 27 34 37 49 32 4237 The economy 33 26 32 40 36 29 34 31 38 32 34

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)37 The economy 25 23 23 28 29 22 24 27 29 23 2840 Taxes 21 17 19 22 25 17 18 25 23 17 2439A New/green jobs 20 19 17 21 23 22 19 17 25 20 2041B Education 15 15 15 14 16 10 15 17 18 13 1838 Immigration 15 13 13 15 22 16 16 16 14 16 15

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)37 The economy 45 46 45 42 47 41 43 47 47 42 4739A New/green jobs 38 37 35 37 41 40 37 35 41 38 3740 Taxes 37 35 38 37 42 32 36 42 38 34 4141B Education 31 26 35 33 30 29 35 31 28 33 2938 Immigration 30 26 28 30 38 31 28 31 30 29 31

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)38 Immigration 33 36 33 32 31 42 38 32 21 39 2741B Education 26 32 27 22 21 38 26 25 18 30 2240 Taxes 25 29 28 23 20 33 29 22 17 31 2039A New/green jobs 24 27 25 20 21 29 28 22 15 29 1937 The economy 22 28 24 18 17 30 22 22 14 25 19

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)41B Education 11 16 3 12 19 4 3 14 26 4 2038 Immigration 7 11 12 8 -6 -4 7 5 19 3 1139A New/green jobs 1 -2 5 6 -4 -9 -2 9 3 -4 740 Taxes 0 1 -3 4 -3 3 -1 -7 7 1 -137 The economy -12 -19 -13 -2 -11 -12 -9 -16 -9 -10 -13

Page 157

Total GENDER/AGE EDUCATION

Page 158: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Non College College

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)41B Education 24 14 19 23 35 18 29 23 18 19 33 20 2539A New/green jobs 22 17 18 28 31 18 29 18 19 19 22 18 3038 Immigration 19 11 14 19 28 13 23 22 24 14 21 18 2540 Taxes 18 13 19 18 21 17 19 17 18 15 19 19 2037 The economy 16 15 13 13 18 13 15 22 15 16 14 17 17

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)41B Education 43 22 39 44 54 34 49 43 46 36 50 38 4839A New/green jobs 38 31 37 47 48 35 47 35 37 36 40 31 4840 Taxes 37 29 37 36 45 34 40 38 34 34 38 36 4138 Immigration 37 21 34 36 49 30 42 35 46 31 41 33 4337 The economy 33 23 34 31 38 31 34 38 32 34 32 31 36

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)37 The economy 25 32 29 27 29 30 28 15 23 23 28 23 2740 Taxes 21 27 23 27 23 24 25 9 13 17 26 18 2239A New/green jobs 20 28 22 16 20 24 18 15 16 18 22 22 1841B Education 15 21 15 17 18 17 17 7 11 13 19 14 1738 Immigration 15 25 20 17 13 22 15 7 8 17 17 14 13

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)37 The economy 45 54 50 45 48 51 47 29 40 44 48 41 4639A New/green jobs 38 51 39 30 39 43 33 27 33 36 41 40 3340 Taxes 37 45 42 43 38 43 41 21 35 36 43 32 3841B Education 31 43 37 29 27 39 28 26 29 36 29 31 3038 Immigration 30 43 33 31 31 36 31 16 20 31 33 28 28

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)38 Immigration 33 36 32 32 21 33 27 49 34 38 26 40 2941B Education 26 35 25 27 19 27 23 31 25 29 21 31 2240 Taxes 25 26 21 22 17 23 20 42 31 29 19 32 2039A New/green jobs 24 19 25 23 13 23 19 38 30 28 19 29 2037 The economy 22 23 16 23 13 18 19 33 28 21 20 28 18

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)41B Education 11 -21 2 15 27 -5 21 17 17 0 21 6 1838 Immigration 7 -22 1 5 18 -6 11 19 26 0 8 5 1539A New/green jobs 1 -20 -2 17 10 -8 14 8 4 1 -1 -9 1540 Taxes 0 -16 -5 -7 7 -9 -1 17 -1 -2 -5 3 337 The economy -12 -30 -16 -14 -10 -20 -12 9 -9 -10 -16 -10 -10

Page 158

GENDER/EDUCTotal WHT EDUC LAT EDUC

Page 159: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)41B Education 24 19 33 17 25 15 24 26 34 10 25 23 3339A New/green jobs 22 16 25 20 34 15 20 22 32 14 23 20 3538 Immigration 19 12 21 14 25 15 21 16 26 12 20 13 2540 Taxes 18 15 20 19 18 13 15 21 24 12 13 19 2437 The economy 16 12 15 14 15 12 10 22 22 6 8 18 21

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)41B Education 43 35 51 33 48 35 46 41 53 25 46 40 5239A New/green jobs 38 35 45 34 50 34 43 34 45 36 47 33 4840 Taxes 37 36 39 33 41 33 38 38 41 33 37 35 4238 Immigration 37 28 40 32 44 35 42 27 42 37 41 25 4337 The economy 33 35 33 27 36 30 28 36 40 28 27 33 41

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)37 The economy 25 27 28 32 28 19 26 28 29 28 25 31 3040 Taxes 21 24 27 24 24 14 23 21 25 24 24 24 2639A New/green jobs 20 22 18 27 17 16 21 26 19 19 19 29 1741B Education 15 15 17 18 18 11 20 14 16 16 19 16 1638 Immigration 15 23 18 20 13 14 12 18 18 23 12 21 18

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)37 The economy 45 51 46 51 47 41 49 44 45 52 49 50 4539A New/green jobs 38 41 35 45 32 33 39 45 35 36 35 48 3240 Taxes 37 43 42 42 39 31 42 39 40 43 42 44 4041B Education 31 38 28 39 29 33 28 33 31 37 25 38 3038 Immigration 30 37 34 36 28 25 29 35 32 36 29 38 33

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)38 Immigration 33 35 26 32 28 40 29 38 26 28 30 37 2441B Education 26 27 22 28 24 33 26 27 17 37 29 22 1740 Taxes 25 20 19 25 20 36 20 23 19 24 21 21 1839A New/green jobs 24 24 20 22 18 34 18 21 20 28 18 18 1937 The economy 22 15 20 22 17 29 23 20 15 20 24 17 14

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)41B Education 11 -2 23 -6 19 2 19 8 22 -12 21 2 2238 Immigration 7 -9 6 -4 15 11 13 -7 10 1 11 -12 1039A New/green jobs 1 -6 10 -11 18 1 3 -11 11 0 12 -15 1640 Taxes 0 -7 -4 -10 2 1 -4 -1 1 -9 -5 -9 237 The economy -12 -16 -13 -25 -11 -11 -21 -8 -5 -24 -22 -17 -5

Page 159

Total WHT GEN/EDUC AGE/EDUC WHT AGE/EDUC

Page 160: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

MemberHhold

memberNo

memberTotal Union Member

Hhold member

No member

Total Union Member

No member

Total Union

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)41B Education 24 20 30 24 24 23 26 25 23 13 24 2539A New/green jobs 22 29 13 22 21 36 7 24 23 17 17 1738 Immigration 19 22 26 19 23 24 19 18 23 18 20 2440 Taxes 18 19 14 19 18 21 11 18 19 14 20 1637 The economy 16 19 19 15 18 21 12 14 17 13 19 21

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)41B Education 43 49 38 42 46 55 26 41 49 35 43 4239A New/green jobs 38 43 31 38 39 48 28 41 42 31 32 3140 Taxes 37 43 34 37 38 49 29 37 40 28 38 3538 Immigration 37 45 41 36 42 49 34 36 42 38 36 4137 The economy 33 37 27 33 33 44 24 32 36 20 36 27

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)37 The economy 25 26 19 26 24 27 22 29 27 22 19 1940 Taxes 21 20 15 21 20 20 22 25 23 19 12 1439A New/green jobs 20 22 20 20 20 21 22 21 21 25 19 2041B Education 15 19 8 16 15 17 13 17 16 23 12 1238 Immigration 15 16 14 16 14 14 18 19 14 21 9 14

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)37 The economy 45 44 31 46 41 41 39 50 42 51 37 3739A New/green jobs 38 34 28 39 33 28 31 40 31 46 38 3740 Taxes 37 33 24 39 32 29 30 44 33 41 29 3041B Education 31 30 21 32 27 26 29 33 27 41 30 2838 Immigration 30 27 20 31 25 24 26 36 25 34 22 25

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)38 Immigration 33 28 39 33 33 28 40 29 33 28 42 3441B Education 26 21 41 26 27 19 45 25 24 25 27 3040 Taxes 25 25 42 24 30 22 42 19 27 31 33 3539A New/green jobs 24 23 40 23 28 24 41 19 27 23 30 3237 The economy 22 19 42 20 26 15 37 18 21 29 27 36

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)41B Education 11 18 18 10 19 30 -3 8 22 -6 13 1438 Immigration 7 18 21 4 17 25 9 0 18 5 13 1639A New/green jobs 1 9 3 -1 6 20 -3 1 11 -14 -6 -540 Taxes 0 10 10 -2 6 20 -1 -7 7 -13 9 537 The economy -12 -8 -4 -13 -7 3 -15 -18 -6 -31 -1 -10

Page 160

NONWT UNIONTotal UNION WHT UNION

Page 161: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Married Single

Sep Divor ced

Wid owed

Sep Div Wid

Unmarr ied

Married Women

Unmarr ied

WomenMarried

MenUnmarr ied Men

Voted in person

Voted by mail

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)41B Education 24 25 17 32 32 32 23 23 24 28 23 25 2539A New/green jobs 22 20 20 32 35 33 24 20 27 20 22 25 2038 Immigration 19 19 15 27 29 28 20 20 22 18 17 19 2240 Taxes 18 17 15 28 34 30 21 17 23 16 18 17 2037 The economy 16 15 12 25 30 27 17 15 19 15 15 15 17

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)41B Education 43 43 36 58 42 52 43 42 45 45 39 45 4339A New/green jobs 38 38 37 42 47 44 39 36 40 40 37 39 4040 Taxes 37 37 36 43 44 43 39 37 40 36 37 37 3738 Immigration 37 35 38 43 44 43 40 36 40 34 39 39 3737 The economy 33 32 30 43 42 43 35 34 32 31 38 33 35

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)37 The economy 25 28 19 27 21 25 21 29 21 28 22 25 2940 Taxes 21 24 14 19 15 18 15 23 15 25 16 20 2439A New/green jobs 20 22 15 18 26 21 17 24 16 21 17 19 2041B Education 15 17 12 16 9 13 13 17 13 17 12 14 1738 Immigration 15 17 11 17 11 15 12 15 12 20 13 13 19

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)37 The economy 45 48 41 39 34 37 39 48 38 49 41 43 4739A New/green jobs 38 41 33 37 34 36 34 40 34 41 34 39 3640 Taxes 37 43 30 30 27 29 29 42 27 44 33 37 4041B Education 31 34 28 26 26 26 27 33 26 34 29 31 3338 Immigration 30 35 21 25 27 26 23 32 23 38 23 28 35

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)38 Immigration 33 30 41 32 29 31 37 32 36 28 38 33 2841B Education 26 23 36 15 33 22 30 25 29 21 32 25 2340 Taxes 25 20 34 28 30 28 32 21 33 19 31 25 2339A New/green jobs 24 21 31 21 19 20 27 23 26 19 28 22 2437 The economy 22 19 29 18 24 20 26 18 30 20 21 23 18

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)41B Education 11 10 8 32 16 26 16 9 19 11 10 14 1038 Immigration 7 0 16 18 17 17 17 4 17 -3 16 11 239A New/green jobs 1 -2 4 5 13 8 5 -4 7 -1 3 0 540 Taxes 0 -7 6 13 17 14 9 -5 13 -8 4 0 -337 The economy -12 -16 -11 4 8 6 -5 -13 -6 -19 -3 -10 -12

Page 161

Total MARITAL MARITAL/GENDER 2008

Page 162: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Voted in person

Voted by mail A B Cell Landline Base Latino

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)41B Education 24 25 27 0 24 23 24 25 2239A New/green jobs 22 30 23 22 0 17 23 23 1638 Immigration 19 21 25 20 19 21 19 18 2440 Taxes 18 20 20 18 19 18 18 18 1837 The economy 16 19 18 16 16 11 17 15 18

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)41B Education 43 45 44 0 43 46 42 42 4439A New/green jobs 38 45 40 38 0 34 39 38 4040 Taxes 37 41 37 37 38 40 37 37 3738 Immigration 37 40 38 36 37 43 36 36 4037 The economy 33 36 35 33 33 30 34 33 35

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)37 The economy 25 23 30 26 25 27 25 28 1540 Taxes 21 22 26 22 20 21 21 24 1039A New/green jobs 20 17 21 20 0 22 20 21 1541B Education 15 17 19 0 15 18 15 17 838 Immigration 15 15 20 16 15 15 15 18 7

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Whitman Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)37 The economy 45 41 48 46 43 49 44 49 3139A New/green jobs 38 35 37 38 0 36 38 40 2840 Taxes 37 39 43 38 37 38 37 41 2441B Education 31 31 36 0 31 30 31 32 2638 Immigration 30 30 36 32 28 32 30 34 17

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)38 Immigration 33 30 26 32 35 25 34 30 4441B Education 26 24 20 0 26 24 26 25 3040 Taxes 25 20 20 25 26 22 26 22 3839A New/green jobs 24 21 23 24 0 30 23 22 3237 The economy 22 22 17 20 24 21 22 19 34

Q37-41 Summary Governor Better Job...Brown - WhitmanTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)41B Education 11 14 9 0 11 15 11 10 1738 Immigration 7 9 2 4 9 10 6 2 2339A New/green jobs 1 10 2 1 0 -2 1 -2 1140 Taxes 0 2 -6 -2 1 2 0 -4 1337 The economy -12 -5 -12 -13 -10 -18 -11 -16 5

Page 162

PHONE SAMPLETotal 2006 SPLIT

Page 163: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LIKELY

Likely Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS

Reg Rep Not ID Rep

Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Mod erate

Conser vative

Q23 Senate VoteTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Boxer 49 48 75 42 12 72 15 52 27 54 80 51 20Lean Boxer 4 2 4 3 4 4 3 5 1 4 3 5 2Fiorina 35 40 11 37 74 13 71 26 56 23 9 29 67Lean Fiorina 3 3 1 3 5 1 4 5 1 2 2 4 3(Other) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1Lean (Other) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0(Undecided) 7 4 6 10 4 7 6 9 10 15 4 9 5(Refused) 2 2 1 3 1 2 1 2 4 1 1 2 1Total Boxer 53 51 80 45 16 76 17 56 28 58 83 56 22Total Fiorina 38 43 13 41 79 15 75 31 58 25 11 33 70Total Other 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 1 1Boxer - Fiorina 15 8 67 4 -63 62 -58 25 -30 33 72 23 -48

Q25 Chances of voting for BoxerTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Fair chance 3 2 3 3 2 4 2 2 2 5 3 4 1Small chance 5 4 5 4 7 3 6 9 5 2 5 6 4Slight chance 7 6 4 10 9 4 9 9 9 8 4 8 8No chance 29 35 6 34 64 9 64 21 52 20 3 22 63(Don't know) 2 1 3 3 1 3 1 3 2 6 2 3 2(Refused) 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 1 0Boxer Supporter 53 51 80 45 16 76 17 56 28 58 83 56 22

Q26 Chances of voting for FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Fair chance 6 4 6 8 5 5 4 11 6 8 5 9 4Small chance 10 7 12 11 5 13 3 15 4 16 14 11 6Slight chance 13 10 17 12 6 18 7 13 13 19 12 17 7No chance 27 32 45 20 5 44 7 22 11 24 53 24 7(Don't know) 5 3 6 6 1 6 3 7 7 9 5 5 5(Refused) 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 1 0Fiiorina Supporter 38 43 13 41 79 15 75 31 58 25 11 33 70

Page 163

IDEOLOGYTotal PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS

Page 164: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated Right Wrong

Q23 Senate VoteTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Boxer 49 82 70 22 7 33 83 65 25 7 50 68 46Lean Boxer 4 4 6 4 3 1 4 4 3 3 5 7 3Fiorina 35 8 13 59 83 31 7 18 57 82 27 14 39Lean Fiorina 3 1 2 7 3 5 1 2 5 3 4 3 3(Other) 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0Lean (Other) 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0(Undecided) 7 4 7 7 3 22 4 9 7 3 11 7 6(Refused) 2 1 2 0 1 5 1 1 2 1 2 0 2Total Boxer 53 86 76 26 10 34 87 69 28 10 54 76 49Total Fiorina 38 9 15 66 85 36 7 20 62 85 31 17 43Total Other 1 0 0 1 1 3 0 0 1 1 2 0 1Boxer - Fiorina 15 76 61 -40 -76 -2 79 49 -34 -76 23 59 6

Q25 Chances of voting for BoxerTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Fair chance 3 3 3 4 1 4 4 4 4 1 2 4 2Small chance 5 5 4 8 4 8 3 3 8 5 8 5 5Slight chance 7 3 4 11 7 17 4 5 11 7 10 7 7No chance 29 2 9 48 77 28 1 15 47 75 22 6 34(Don't know) 2 2 2 2 1 7 2 4 1 1 3 2 2(Refused) 1 0 1 0 0 3 0 1 1 0 1 0 1Boxer Supporter 53 86 76 26 10 34 87 69 28 10 54 76 49

Q26 Chances of voting for FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Fair chance 6 5 9 13 2 5 5 5 7 3 10 11 6Small chance 10 13 14 5 4 10 13 14 4 2 13 19 8Slight chance 13 13 22 8 4 14 14 22 11 3 12 24 11No chance 27 55 33 6 3 22 57 32 12 3 25 23 28(Don't know) 5 5 7 2 2 11 4 7 3 3 8 6 4(Refused) 1 0 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 1 0 0 0Fiiorina Supporter 38 9 15 66 85 36 7 20 62 85 31 17 43

Page 164

Total PTY/IDEO PTYREG/IDEO STATE DIR

Page 165: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

10 8-10 6-10 0-5 0-7 BrownWhit man Und Ref

Q23 Senate VoteTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Boxer 49 41 45 48 50 53 80 21 28Lean Boxer 4 1 2 3 5 5 4 4 4Fiorina 35 50 44 38 27 26 11 65 16Lean Fiorina 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 5 3(Other) 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1Lean (Other) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1(Undecided) 7 4 4 5 12 11 3 4 40(Refused) 2 1 2 1 2 1 0 1 9Total Boxer 53 42 48 52 55 58 84 25 32Total Fiorina 38 52 46 41 30 29 13 70 19Total Other 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 1Boxer - Fiorina 15 -10 1 11 25 29 71 -44 13

Q25 Chances of voting for BoxerTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Fair chance 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 3 6Small chance 5 3 4 4 7 7 4 5 11Slight chance 7 6 6 6 8 8 4 9 11No chance 29 45 38 32 23 20 5 57 17(Don't know) 2 1 1 2 4 4 1 1 18(Refused) 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 4Boxer Supporter 53 42 48 52 55 58 84 25 32

Q26 Chances of voting for FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Fair chance 6 2 4 6 8 9 6 7 7Small chance 10 5 7 9 12 13 11 8 13Slight chance 13 5 8 11 17 18 16 8 18No chance 27 31 30 28 24 24 51 5 9(Don't know) 5 4 3 4 8 7 3 2 30(Refused) 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 4Fiiorina Supporter 38 52 46 41 30 29 13 70 19

Page 165

Total ENTHUSIASM GOV VOTE

Page 166: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q23 Senate VoteTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Boxer 49 87 76 73 59 47 32 30 8 84 67 41 14 51Lean Boxer 4 2 7 3 6 5 5 7 2 3 5 5 3 5Fiorina 35 7 12 17 26 13 39 46 79 8 21 24 70 23Lean Fiorina 3 1 3 2 1 1 3 8 4 1 2 2 5 2(Other) 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0Lean (Other) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0(Undecided) 7 3 3 1 7 28 15 8 4 3 4 23 5 16(Refused) 2 0 0 1 0 5 5 0 2 0 1 5 1 3Total Boxer 53 89 82 77 66 52 38 36 10 87 72 46 17 55Total Fiorina 38 8 15 20 27 14 42 54 83 10 23 26 75 25Total Other 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 2 0 1 0 2 1Boxer - Fiorina 15 81 68 57 39 38 -4 -18 -73 77 49 20 -58 30

Q25 Chances of voting for BoxerTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Fair chance 3 2 1 5 8 7 5 2 1 1 6 6 2 6Small chance 5 3 1 9 12 3 17 7 4 2 10 9 5 9Slight chance 7 1 9 6 7 2 18 21 6 3 6 9 10 8No chance 29 6 6 4 7 14 22 31 77 6 5 18 65 13(Don't know) 2 0 1 0 1 18 0 2 1 1 0 10 1 7(Refused) 1 0 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 2Boxer Supporter 53 89 82 77 66 52 38 36 10 87 72 46 17 55

Q26 Chances of voting for FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Fair chance 6 2 9 4 24 17 10 5 2 4 13 14 3 14Small chance 10 4 15 33 16 12 24 9 4 7 26 17 5 20Slight chance 13 9 33 21 12 15 17 19 3 16 18 16 7 17No chance 27 75 23 22 9 13 4 7 5 61 17 9 6 12(Don't know) 5 2 4 0 11 25 3 6 2 3 5 16 3 12(Refused) 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 1Fiiorina Supporter 38 8 15 20 27 14 42 54 83 10 23 26 75 25

Page 166

Total BROWN VCS

Page 167: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q23 Senate VoteTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Boxer 49 7 31 38 61 39 61 65 82 13 50 50 77 50Lean Boxer 4 2 6 5 9 4 6 5 2 3 7 5 3 6Fiorina 35 83 51 44 18 17 21 17 8 76 31 19 11 23Lean Fiorina 3 3 9 5 3 2 3 2 1 5 4 3 2 3(Other) 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0Lean (Other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0(Undecided) 7 3 2 4 8 30 7 10 4 3 6 19 6 14(Refused) 2 1 0 3 1 7 1 0 1 1 2 4 1 3Total Boxer 53 9 37 44 70 43 67 70 84 16 57 55 80 55Total Fiorina 38 87 60 49 21 19 24 19 9 80 35 21 12 27Total Other 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 1 1 0Boxer - Fiorina 15 -77 -24 -5 49 24 43 51 74 -65 22 33 67 29

Q25 Chances of voting for BoxerTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Fair chance 3 1 3 6 5 9 4 1 2 2 5 7 1 6Small chance 5 4 6 14 1 8 13 3 3 4 8 10 3 9Slight chance 7 6 19 11 2 7 9 12 2 9 7 8 5 7No chance 29 79 33 22 18 10 7 11 9 68 20 9 10 13(Don't know) 2 0 2 0 4 19 0 2 1 0 2 10 1 7(Refused) 1 0 0 2 0 5 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 2Boxer Supporter 53 9 37 44 70 43 67 70 84 16 57 55 80 55

Q26 Chances of voting for FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Fair chance 6 2 7 13 21 17 6 8 2 3 17 12 4 14Small chance 10 4 8 23 15 10 32 13 5 5 19 21 7 20Slight chance 13 3 15 9 22 9 19 34 10 6 15 14 17 14No chance 27 3 5 5 18 7 19 19 72 4 11 13 55 12(Don't know) 5 1 4 1 4 34 1 7 2 2 2 18 4 12(Refused) 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1Fiiorina Supporter 38 87 60 49 21 19 24 19 9 80 35 21 12 27

Page 167

Total WHITMAN VCS

Page 168: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Brown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

better

Govt back

groundBiz back ground

Brown better

Whit man

better Boxer Fiorina DK/ Ref

Q23 Senate VoteTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Boxer 49 77 21 77 25 79 26 67 31 82 25 93 0 0Lean Boxer 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 7 0 0Fiorina 35 13 67 14 63 11 60 19 54 11 61 0 92 0Lean Fiorina 3 2 6 1 4 2 4 3 4 1 4 0 8 0(Other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0Lean (Other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Undecided) 7 3 2 2 3 3 3 6 5 2 5 0 0 82(Refused) 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 0 1 0 0 18Total Boxer 53 81 24 81 29 83 30 71 35 85 28 100 0 0Total Fiorina 38 14 73 16 66 13 65 22 57 12 65 0 100 0Total Other 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0Boxer - Fiorina 15 67 -49 65 -37 70 -34 49 -22 73 -37 100 -100 0

Q25 Chances of voting for BoxerTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Fair chance 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 2 2 3 0 4 17Small chance 5 4 6 4 6 5 5 6 5 4 5 0 10 15Slight chance 7 5 9 4 8 4 9 5 9 2 9 0 13 24No chance 29 7 60 9 54 6 52 13 48 7 54 0 73 13(Don't know) 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 1 0 1 0 1 24(Refused) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 7Boxer Supporter 53 81 24 81 29 83 30 71 35 85 28 100 0 0

Q26 Chances of voting for FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Fair chance 6 6 6 5 7 6 7 6 7 5 8 9 0 16Small chance 10 12 6 12 6 10 8 10 10 11 7 16 0 19Slight chance 13 16 9 15 9 15 11 15 10 15 10 21 0 20No chance 27 49 6 50 9 54 8 42 12 54 8 49 0 8(Don't know) 5 3 1 2 2 2 1 5 4 2 1 5 0 31(Refused) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 5Fiiorina Supporter 38 14 73 16 66 13 65 22 57 12 65 0 100 0

Page 168

ENERGY BCKGRND ECONOMY SEN VOTETotal UNDERSTAND CLEAR PLAN

Page 169: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q23 Senate VoteTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Boxer 49 98 89 91 82 0 0 0 0 95 87 0 0 51Lean Boxer 4 2 11 9 18 0 0 0 0 5 13 0 0 8Fiorina 35 0 0 0 0 22 59 49 93 0 0 39 84 16Lean Fiorina 3 0 0 0 0 6 12 21 2 0 0 9 5 4(Other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 1 1 0Lean (Other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0(Undecided) 7 0 0 0 0 59 19 26 3 0 0 41 7 17(Refused) 2 0 0 0 0 12 6 4 1 0 0 10 1 4Total Boxer 53 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 59Total Fiorina 38 0 0 0 0 28 72 70 94 0 0 49 90 20Total Other 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 1 2 1Boxer - Fiorina 15 100 100 100 100 -28 -72 -70 -94 100 100 -49 -90 38

Q25 Chances of voting for BoxerTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Fair chance 3 0 0 0 0 49 0 0 0 0 0 26 0 11Small chance 5 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 47 0 19Slight chance 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 19 0No chance 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 81 0(Don't know) 2 0 0 0 0 42 0 0 0 0 0 22 0 9(Refused) 1 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 2Boxer Supporter 53 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 59

Q26 Chances of voting for FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Fair chance 6 0 0 0 65 18 5 1 0 0 31 12 0 23Small chance 10 0 0 100 0 6 16 7 0 0 53 11 2 35Slight chance 13 0 100 0 0 3 4 18 1 30 0 3 4 1No chance 27 100 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 70 0 1 3 0(Don't know) 5 0 0 0 34 37 2 2 1 0 16 20 1 18(Refused) 1 0 0 0 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 2Fiiorina Supporter 38 0 0 0 0 28 72 70 94 0 0 49 90 20

Page 169

Total BOXER VCS

Page 170: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q23 Senate VoteTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Boxer 49 0 0 0 51 75 76 94 0 0 62 88 50Lean Boxer 4 0 0 0 11 7 9 2 0 0 9 4 7Fiorina 35 98 70 83 0 0 0 0 94 81 0 0 16Lean Fiorina 3 2 30 17 0 0 0 0 6 19 0 0 4(Other) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0Lean (Other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0(Undecided) 7 0 0 0 31 13 12 2 0 0 23 5 18(Refused) 2 0 0 0 6 4 2 1 0 0 5 1 4Total Boxer 53 0 0 0 62 82 86 96 0 0 71 92 57Total Fiorina 38 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 20Total Other 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 1 1 1Boxer - Fiorina 15 -100 -100 -100 62 82 86 96 -100 -100 71 92 37

Q25 Chances of voting for BoxerTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Fair chance 3 0 0 0 9 3 1 0 0 25 6 1 10Small chance 5 0 0 100 3 8 2 0 0 69 5 1 18Slight chance 7 0 100 0 1 5 10 1 15 0 3 4 2No chance 29 100 0 0 4 0 2 3 85 0 2 3 2(Don't know) 2 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 0 6 10 0 9(Refused) 1 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 2Boxer Supporter 53 0 0 0 62 82 86 96 0 0 71 92 57

Q26 Chances of voting for FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Fair chance 6 0 0 0 52 0 0 0 0 0 28 0 23Small chance 10 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 45 0 36Slight chance 13 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 32 0No chance 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 68 0(Don't know) 5 0 0 0 44 0 0 0 0 0 24 0 19(Refused) 1 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2Fiiorina Supporter 38 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 20

Page 170

Total FIORINA VCS

Page 171: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Support Obama

Oppose Obama

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better Favor Oppose

Impor tant

Not Impor tant

Q23 Senate VoteTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Boxer 49 72 11 90 9 89 5 90 9 37 63 61 13Lean Boxer 4 3 4 3 2 3 1 2 1 4 4 4 2Fiorina 35 14 75 4 83 5 89 6 85 47 25 21 76Lean Fiorina 3 2 3 1 4 1 3 0 5 5 2 3 2(Other) 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1Lean (Other) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1(Undecided) 7 6 5 1 2 1 1 1 1 4 5 8 3(Refused) 2 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 2 1 1 2Total Boxer 53 76 15 93 10 92 6 92 10 41 67 65 15Total Fiorina 38 16 79 5 87 7 92 7 89 52 27 25 78Total Other 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2Boxer - Fiorina 15 60 -64 88 -76 85 -86 85 -80 -11 40 41 -63

Q25 Chances of voting for BoxerTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Fair chance 3 3 1 1 3 2 2 1 3 2 3 4 1Small chance 5 5 5 3 7 3 7 3 5 5 5 6 3Slight chance 7 5 8 2 9 1 8 2 9 9 5 6 9No chance 29 8 70 2 70 2 76 3 73 41 19 16 71(Don't know) 2 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 3 1(Refused) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1Boxer Supporter 53 76 15 93 10 92 6 92 10 41 67 65 15

Q26 Chances of voting for FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Fair chance 6 7 4 7 2 6 2 5 3 7 5 8 2Small chance 10 13 6 14 3 12 3 10 3 9 10 12 3Slight chance 13 17 5 17 5 18 1 16 2 11 14 15 7No chance 27 41 5 55 3 54 1 59 2 15 40 34 7(Don't know) 5 6 2 3 0 3 0 3 0 4 3 6 2(Refused) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1Fiiorina Supporter 38 16 79 5 87 7 92 7 89 52 27 25 78

Page 171

SHARE VALUES JOBS ECON PROP 23 GW IMPTTotal SENTYPE CHANGE

Page 172: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

White Black Latino Asian Men Women Men Women Men Women

Q23 Senate VoteTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Boxer 49 47 56 55 53 46 52 44 50 55 56Lean Boxer 4 3 3 5 9 3 4 3 4 4 5Fiorina 35 40 33 19 19 40 30 44 37 23 16Lean Fiorina 3 3 2 3 4 3 3 4 3 2 4(Other) 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 0Lean (Other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0(Undecided) 7 4 4 15 12 5 9 3 5 12 18(Refused) 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 3 0Total Boxer 53 50 59 60 62 49 56 46 54 59 61Total Fiorina 38 43 34 22 23 43 34 48 39 25 19Total Other 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 2 1Boxer - Fiorina 15 7 25 38 39 7 22 -2 14 34 42

Q25 Chances of voting for BoxerTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Fair chance 3 2 7 3 5 3 2 2 2 3 3Small chance 5 4 11 5 10 4 7 2 7 5 5Slight chance 7 6 4 10 8 6 7 7 6 8 11No chance 29 35 18 16 11 34 25 41 30 18 14(Don't know) 2 2 1 6 4 2 3 1 2 6 5(Refused) 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 2 0Boxer Supporter 53 50 59 60 62 49 56 46 54 59 61

Q26 Chances of voting for FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Fair chance 6 4 6 10 17 5 7 2 6 10 10Small chance 10 9 10 17 6 9 11 8 9 16 19Slight chance 13 11 11 19 19 12 14 12 11 16 21No chance 27 28 34 21 29 26 28 26 30 23 19(Don't know) 5 4 5 11 5 4 6 3 4 10 11(Refused) 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0Fiiorina Supporter 38 43 34 22 23 43 34 48 39 25 19

Page 172

WHT GEN LAT GENTotal RACE GENDER

Page 173: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over

Q23 Senate VoteTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Boxer 49 56 49 45 50 45 50 48Lean Boxer 4 10 3 3 3 1 5 2Fiorina 35 16 32 39 39 45 29 41Lean Fiorina 3 4 3 4 3 1 4 2(Other) 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0Lean (Other) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0(Undecided) 7 12 11 7 3 4 10 3(Refused) 2 0 2 2 2 2 1 2Total Boxer 53 65 53 48 53 46 55 50Total Fiorina 38 20 35 43 41 47 33 44Total Other 1 2 0 0 0 1 1 1Boxer - Fiorina 15 45 18 6 12 -1 23 7

Q25 Chances of voting for BoxerTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Fair chance 3 4 3 3 2 2 4 2Small chance 5 7 8 5 4 4 7 4Slight chance 7 7 11 8 4 5 9 5No chance 29 11 21 33 35 40 22 37(Don't know) 2 5 3 2 1 2 4 1(Refused) 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1Boxer Supporter 53 65 53 48 53 46 55 50

Q26 Chances of voting for FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Fair chance 6 15 8 6 3 2 10 2Small chance 10 21 10 9 7 6 13 7Slight chance 13 20 17 12 11 8 16 10No chance 27 17 22 27 33 32 22 32(Don't know) 5 7 8 4 4 4 6 4(Refused) 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1Fiiorina Supporter 38 20 35 43 41 47 33 44

Page 173

Total AGE

Page 174: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over 18-29 30-4950 and

over 18-4950 and

over

Q23 Senate VoteTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Boxer 49 63 47 41 50 42 48 46 51 56 61 53 61Lean Boxer 4 9 3 2 3 1 4 2 8 4 2 6 2Fiorina 35 14 39 44 41 49 35 45 16 18 24 17 24Lean Fiorina 3 4 2 5 3 2 4 3 5 2 1 4 1(Other) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 1Lean (Other) 0 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1(Undecided) 7 6 8 5 2 3 6 2 18 17 8 18 8(Refused) 2 0 1 2 1 2 1 1 0 3 2 1 2Total Boxer 53 73 50 43 53 43 53 48 59 60 63 59 63Total Fiorina 38 18 41 49 44 51 39 47 21 20 25 21 25Total Other 1 3 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 0 2 1 2Boxer - Fiorina 15 55 9 -6 8 -8 14 1 37 39 38 38 38

Q25 Chances of voting for BoxerTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Fair chance 3 4 2 2 1 2 2 1 5 4 1 4 1Small chance 5 0 9 6 4 3 6 4 6 3 5 5 5Slight chance 7 5 11 9 4 5 8 4 11 11 6 11 6No chance 29 14 27 38 38 44 28 41 13 14 21 14 21(Don't know) 2 5 2 2 1 1 3 1 6 7 3 6 3(Refused) 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 2 1 1 1Boxer Supporter 53 73 50 43 53 43 53 48 59 60 63 59 63

Q26 Chances of voting for FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Fair chance 6 17 5 4 1 2 8 2 12 11 5 12 5Small chance 10 25 12 8 6 4 13 5 20 14 17 18 17Slight chance 13 19 12 9 12 9 13 10 22 22 10 22 10No chance 27 14 25 27 33 31 23 32 16 20 31 17 31(Don't know) 5 6 6 4 3 2 5 3 9 13 10 11 10(Refused) 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 2 0 2Fiiorina Supporter 38 18 41 49 44 51 39 47 21 20 25 21 25

Page 174

Total WHT AGE LAT AGE

Page 175: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Young Women

Young Men

Older Women

Older Men

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Q23 Senate VoteTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Boxer 49 51 49 52 43 48 44 51 56 45 53Lean Boxer 4 6 4 2 3 8 3 4 2 5 3Fiorina 35 24 35 38 46 30 34 37 36 33 37Lean Fiorina 3 4 3 2 2 1 6 2 1 4 2(Other) 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0Lean (Other) 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0(Undecided) 7 13 7 4 3 10 10 5 4 10 4(Refused) 2 2 1 1 3 2 2 1 1 2 1Total Boxer 53 57 53 54 46 56 47 54 57 50 56Total Fiorina 38 28 38 40 48 32 40 40 37 37 39Total Other 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Boxer - Fiorina 15 30 15 14 -2 24 7 14 20 13 17

Q25 Chances of voting for BoxerTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Fair chance 3 3 5 2 2 4 4 2 1 4 2Small chance 5 8 5 5 2 5 7 4 4 6 4Slight chance 7 10 8 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 7No chance 29 17 27 32 43 24 30 31 30 28 31(Don't know) 2 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 3 2(Refused) 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 0 1 0Boxer Supporter 53 57 53 54 46 56 47 54 57 50 56

Q26 Chances of voting for FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Fair chance 6 10 9 3 1 10 8 5 3 8 4Small chance 10 14 12 7 6 14 12 9 5 13 7Slight chance 13 18 14 10 10 16 14 11 12 14 11No chance 27 22 23 35 30 20 21 29 41 20 34(Don't know) 5 8 5 5 3 8 6 5 3 7 4(Refused) 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 1 0 1 0Fiiorina Supporter 38 28 38 40 48 32 40 40 37 37 39

Page 175

Total GENDER/AGE EDUCATION

Page 176: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Non College College

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Q23 Senate VoteTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Boxer 49 36 42 49 56 40 52 56 55 42 50 48 56Lean Boxer 4 8 2 3 2 4 3 5 5 5 2 5 3Fiorina 35 47 40 40 37 42 39 15 29 38 42 28 32Lean Fiorina 3 1 7 2 1 5 2 4 0 4 2 5 2(Other) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 0Lean (Other) 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0(Undecided) 7 6 6 4 3 6 3 17 9 8 3 12 5(Refused) 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 0 3 1 1 1Total Boxer 53 44 44 52 58 44 55 61 60 47 52 53 59Total Fiorina 38 48 48 42 37 48 40 19 29 42 44 33 34Total Other 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 2 1 1 0 1Boxer - Fiorina 15 -5 -4 10 21 -4 15 41 31 5 8 20 25

Q25 Chances of voting for BoxerTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Fair chance 3 3 2 2 1 3 2 4 0 5 2 4 1Small chance 5 4 6 3 4 6 4 5 5 5 2 8 6Slight chance 7 6 6 8 5 6 6 11 7 6 7 9 6No chance 29 40 38 33 31 39 32 13 25 33 36 23 26(Don't know) 2 1 3 2 1 2 1 6 3 3 1 4 2(Refused) 1 2 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 0Boxer Supporter 53 44 44 52 58 44 55 61 60 47 52 53 59

Q26 Chances of voting for FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Fair chance 6 10 5 3 2 7 3 11 8 7 3 9 5Small chance 10 8 11 9 5 10 8 20 10 12 6 13 8Slight chance 13 11 11 11 11 11 11 20 15 14 11 15 12No chance 27 16 20 29 43 19 36 20 25 19 33 22 36(Don't know) 5 5 5 4 2 5 3 10 14 5 4 9 4(Refused) 1 2 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0Fiiorina Supporter 38 48 48 42 37 48 40 19 29 42 44 33 34

Page 176

GENDER/EDUCTotal WHT EDUC LAT EDUC

Page 177: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Q23 Senate VoteTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Boxer 49 35 50 45 54 46 55 45 51 40 54 41 51Lean Boxer 4 3 2 4 3 7 3 2 2 6 3 2 2Fiorina 35 47 43 39 35 26 32 41 42 35 35 48 42Lean Fiorina 3 6 2 5 1 5 2 3 2 8 1 4 2(Other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0Lean (Other) 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0(Undecided) 7 6 2 6 5 14 6 5 2 8 6 4 2(Refused) 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 3 1 1 2 2 1Total Boxer 53 38 52 49 57 53 58 47 53 47 57 42 53Total Fiorina 38 53 45 44 36 32 34 44 43 43 36 52 44Total Other 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 1Boxer - Fiorina 15 -15 7 5 22 21 25 3 10 4 21 -10 10

Q25 Chances of voting for BoxerTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Fair chance 3 2 2 3 2 5 2 2 1 3 2 2 1Small chance 5 3 1 8 6 8 5 4 3 8 4 3 4Slight chance 7 6 7 5 6 9 9 5 5 7 9 4 4No chance 29 47 37 32 27 20 24 38 37 32 25 44 37(Don't know) 2 1 1 3 2 4 3 2 1 3 3 2 0(Refused) 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 1Boxer Supporter 53 38 52 49 57 53 58 47 53 47 57 42 53

Q26 Chances of voting for FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Fair chance 6 3 1 9 4 12 7 3 1 12 5 2 1Small chance 10 11 6 9 9 16 10 10 4 15 12 7 4Slight chance 13 13 11 10 11 19 13 9 10 15 11 9 11No chance 27 16 33 21 38 15 30 26 39 10 32 24 38(Don't know) 5 3 3 7 3 7 6 7 2 5 5 5 1(Refused) 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 2 1Fiiorina Supporter 38 53 45 44 36 32 34 44 43 43 36 52 44

Page 177

Total WHT GEN/EDUC AGE/EDUC WHT AGE/EDUC

Page 178: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

MemberHhold

memberNo

memberTotal Union Member

Hhold member

No member

Total Union Member

No member

Total Union

Q23 Senate VoteTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Boxer 49 49 45 49 49 51 50 46 51 45 56 44Lean Boxer 4 3 3 4 3 2 2 3 2 6 5 5Fiorina 35 32 30 36 32 35 35 42 34 25 23 27Lean Fiorina 3 4 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 6 2 3(Other) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1Lean (Other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0(Undecided) 7 10 17 6 11 8 8 4 7 14 10 18(Refused) 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 2Total Boxer 53 52 48 53 52 53 52 49 53 51 62 49Total Fiorina 38 36 32 39 35 39 38 45 38 31 25 30Total Other 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1Boxer - Fiorina 15 16 16 14 16 14 14 3 15 20 36 19

Q25 Chances of voting for BoxerTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Fair chance 3 3 5 3 3 1 4 2 2 5 4 6Small chance 5 4 11 5 6 5 8 4 6 3 6 7Slight chance 7 5 9 7 7 3 3 7 3 11 7 13No chance 29 30 24 30 28 33 31 36 33 24 16 20(Don't know) 2 5 2 2 4 5 0 1 3 5 4 5(Refused) 1 0 1 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 0Boxer Supporter 53 52 48 53 52 53 52 49 53 51 62 49

Q26 Chances of voting for FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Fair chance 6 5 13 6 7 3 14 4 6 9 11 8Small chance 10 4 11 11 7 3 11 9 6 7 14 10Slight chance 13 11 17 13 12 10 14 11 11 13 17 15No chance 27 37 18 26 30 41 15 27 32 30 25 26(Don't know) 5 7 8 5 8 5 7 3 6 10 8 10(Refused) 1 0 1 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0Fiiorina Supporter 38 36 32 39 35 39 38 45 38 31 25 30

Page 178

NONWT UNIONTotal UNION WHT UNION

Page 179: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Married Single

Sep Divor ced

Wid owed

Sep Div Wid

Unmarr ied

Married Women

Unmarr ied

WomenMarried

MenUnmarr ied Men

Voted in person

Voted by mail

Q23 Senate VoteTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Boxer 49 47 51 57 48 54 52 51 53 44 50 52 46Lean Boxer 4 3 7 2 1 2 5 3 5 2 5 4 3Fiorina 35 40 24 30 35 32 27 35 24 46 30 33 40Lean Fiorina 3 2 5 4 2 3 4 2 4 2 4 2 3(Other) 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0Lean (Other) 0 0 1 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0(Undecided) 7 5 11 5 9 7 10 7 11 3 8 6 6(Refused) 2 2 0 2 3 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 2Total Boxer 53 50 58 59 49 55 57 54 58 47 55 56 49Total Fiorina 38 42 29 34 36 35 31 37 29 48 34 35 43Total Other 1 0 1 0 3 1 1 0 1 0 2 1 1Boxer - Fiorina 15 8 29 26 12 21 26 17 30 -1 20 21 6

Q25 Chances of voting for BoxerTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Fair chance 3 2 5 2 2 2 4 2 4 2 4 4 2Small chance 5 4 7 8 5 6 7 6 7 2 6 4 5Slight chance 7 6 9 5 8 6 8 6 9 6 7 6 7No chance 29 35 17 25 31 27 21 30 17 40 25 26 36(Don't know) 2 2 4 2 4 2 3 2 4 2 3 3 2(Refused) 1 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1Boxer Supporter 53 50 58 59 49 55 57 54 58 47 55 56 49

Q26 Chances of voting for FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Fair chance 6 5 11 4 3 3 8 6 9 4 8 8 4Small chance 10 8 16 10 7 9 14 8 15 7 12 10 9Slight chance 13 13 16 10 6 9 13 15 12 10 15 12 12No chance 27 28 20 38 37 38 27 29 27 26 26 29 28(Don't know) 5 4 7 4 7 5 6 5 8 4 5 6 4(Refused) 1 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1Fiiorina Supporter 38 42 29 34 36 35 31 37 29 48 34 35 43

Page 179

Total MARITAL MARITAL/GENDER 2008

Page 180: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Voted in person

Voted by mail A B Cell Landline Base Latino

Q23 Senate VoteTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Boxer 49 53 42 47 51 55 48 47 56Lean Boxer 4 2 3 5 2 5 4 4 4Fiorina 35 34 48 35 35 27 36 39 20Lean Fiorina 3 3 1 3 3 5 3 3 2(Other) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1Lean (Other) 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0(Undecided) 7 6 4 8 6 5 7 5 15(Refused) 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 1Total Boxer 53 55 45 52 53 60 52 51 60Total Fiorina 38 37 49 38 38 32 39 42 23Total Other 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 1 1Boxer - Fiorina 15 19 -5 14 16 28 13 9 37

Q25 Chances of voting for BoxerTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Fair chance 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 4Small chance 5 3 5 4 6 4 5 5 6Slight chance 7 5 6 7 6 9 7 7 8No chance 29 31 42 30 29 22 30 33 15(Don't know) 2 1 1 3 2 2 3 2 6(Refused) 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1Boxer Supporter 53 55 45 52 53 60 52 51 60

Q26 Chances of voting for FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Fair chance 6 4 3 6 6 14 5 6 9Small chance 10 9 6 9 11 11 10 8 18Slight chance 13 12 8 15 11 11 13 11 18No chance 27 33 31 26 29 28 27 29 19(Don't know) 5 4 2 5 5 4 5 3 13(Refused) 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0Fiiorina Supporter 38 37 49 38 38 32 39 42 23

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PHONE SAMPLETotal 2006 SPLIT

Page 181: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LIKELY

Likely Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS

Reg Rep Not ID Rep

Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Mod erate

Conser vative

Boxer Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Loyalist 26 32 44 18 4 43 6 21 10 22 53 23 6Supporter 11 9 16 8 5 16 5 10 8 15 10 15 6Conditional 8 5 11 9 3 11 2 12 3 12 13 9 4Vulnerable 7 5 9 10 3 7 3 14 7 9 7 9 5Winnable 6 4 6 7 4 7 4 5 6 12 5 8 4In Reach 5 4 5 4 7 3 6 9 5 2 5 6 4Peripheral 7 6 4 10 9 4 9 9 9 8 4 8 8Unreachable 29 35 6 34 64 9 64 21 52 20 3 22 63Loyalist/Supporter 37 41 60 26 10 58 12 31 18 37 63 38 13Conditional/Vulnerable 16 10 19 19 6 18 6 26 10 22 20 18 9Winnable/In Reach 11 8 11 11 11 10 10 14 11 14 10 14 7Peripheral/Unreachable 36 41 9 44 73 13 73 29 61 28 7 30 70Persuadable 27 17 30 30 17 28 16 40 21 35 30 32 17

Fiorina Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Loyalist 28 34 5 31 63 8 62 19 48 17 3 21 61Supporter 5 5 3 6 8 3 8 4 6 5 2 6 6Conditional 4 3 3 3 5 2 4 8 2 1 4 4 2Vulnerable 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 0 1 3 2 2 1Winnable 12 7 13 15 6 12 8 18 15 17 10 14 9In Reach 10 7 12 11 5 13 3 15 4 16 14 11 6Peripheral 13 10 17 12 6 18 7 13 13 19 12 17 7Unreachable 27 32 45 20 5 44 7 22 11 24 53 24 7Loyalist/Supporter 32 39 7 37 71 11 70 23 55 22 5 26 67Conditional/Vulnerable 5 4 5 4 8 4 5 9 3 3 6 7 3Winnable/In Reach 22 14 25 27 11 24 11 34 18 33 24 26 15Peripheral/Unreachable 40 43 62 32 11 61 14 35 24 42 65 41 14Persuadable 27 18 30 30 18 28 16 42 22 36 30 32 18

Q52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?Total answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Support BO strong 48 47 75 37 14 69 18 47 30 46 74 49 21Support BO not strong 11 9 13 14 5 12 5 19 7 10 12 13 6Oppose BO not strong 6 6 2 8 10 4 9 7 6 8 3 7 8Oppose BO strong 24 28 4 26 56 6 53 17 41 14 3 16 54(Don't know) 9 7 5 12 11 8 11 8 11 18 6 10 8(Refused) 3 3 1 4 4 2 4 3 4 4 1 4 3Total Support BO 59 56 88 51 19 81 23 66 37 55 87 63 27Total Oppose BO 30 34 6 34 66 9 62 24 48 22 6 24 62Support - Oppose 29 22 81 17 -47 72 -39 42 -11 33 80 39 -35

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IDEOLOGYTotal PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS

Page 182: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated Right Wrong

Boxer Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Loyalist 26 55 32 5 3 16 57 30 11 3 22 23 26Supporter 11 11 20 7 4 9 12 20 9 3 9 21 10Conditional 8 12 13 5 2 4 11 11 3 2 10 17 6Vulnerable 7 7 12 9 1 5 6 8 5 2 13 15 6Winnable 6 5 6 7 2 13 5 9 6 3 6 6 5In Reach 5 5 4 8 4 8 3 3 8 5 8 5 5Peripheral 7 3 4 11 7 17 4 5 11 7 10 7 7Unreachable 29 2 9 48 77 28 1 15 47 75 22 6 34Loyalist/Supporter 37 66 51 12 6 25 69 50 19 6 31 44 36Conditional/Vulnerable 16 20 25 14 4 9 17 19 9 4 23 32 13Winnable/In Reach 11 10 10 15 6 21 8 12 14 7 14 11 10Peripheral/Unreachable 36 5 13 59 85 45 5 19 58 83 32 14 41Persuadable 27 29 35 29 9 30 26 31 23 11 37 43 23

Fiorina Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Loyalist 28 2 8 47 76 20 1 13 46 74 19 6 32Supporter 5 1 3 10 6 9 2 3 10 7 5 5 5Conditional 4 4 2 6 3 6 1 2 5 3 7 3 4Vulnerable 2 2 2 3 1 1 2 3 2 1 0 3 1Winnable 12 10 16 15 4 18 9 13 11 6 19 17 10In Reach 10 13 14 5 4 10 13 14 4 2 13 19 8Peripheral 13 13 22 8 4 14 14 22 11 3 12 24 11Unreachable 27 55 33 6 3 22 57 32 12 3 25 23 28Loyalist/Supporter 32 3 11 57 82 29 4 16 56 81 24 11 37Conditional/Vulnerable 5 6 4 9 3 7 4 4 7 4 8 6 5Winnable/In Reach 22 23 31 20 8 28 21 26 15 8 31 36 18Peripheral/Unreachable 40 68 55 14 7 36 71 53 22 6 37 47 39Persuadable 27 29 35 29 11 35 25 31 22 13 39 42 23

Q52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?Total answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Support BO strong 48 78 69 24 7 32 79 60 29 10 48 70 44Support BO not strong 11 12 14 11 3 15 11 14 9 2 16 11 10Oppose BO not strong 6 3 3 11 10 9 3 5 9 9 7 4 7Oppose BO strong 24 1 7 33 69 18 1 10 33 68 17 8 27(Don't know) 9 5 5 15 8 18 6 9 14 7 9 6 9(Refused) 3 1 1 6 2 8 0 3 6 3 3 2 3Total Support BO 59 90 83 36 11 47 90 74 38 13 64 81 55Total Oppose BO 30 4 10 44 79 28 4 15 42 77 24 12 34Support - Oppose 29 86 73 -8 -69 19 86 59 -3 -65 39 69 20

Page 182

Total PTY/IDEO PTYREG/IDEO STATE DIR

Page 183: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

10 8-10 6-10 0-5 0-7 BrownWhit man Und Ref

Boxer Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Loyalist 26 30 29 28 21 22 50 5 5Supporter 11 4 8 10 14 15 15 7 12Conditional 8 4 6 8 10 11 11 6 5Vulnerable 7 4 5 7 9 10 8 7 9Winnable 6 3 4 5 7 8 3 4 28In Reach 5 3 4 4 7 7 4 5 11Peripheral 7 6 6 6 8 8 4 9 11Unreachable 29 45 38 32 23 20 5 57 17Loyalist/Supporter 37 34 37 38 35 37 65 13 17Conditional/Vulnerable 16 8 11 14 20 21 18 13 14Winnable/In Reach 11 6 8 10 14 15 7 9 40Peripheral/Unreachable 36 52 45 38 31 27 9 66 29Persuadable 27 14 19 24 34 35 26 22 54

Fiorina Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Loyalist 28 45 37 31 19 17 5 56 9Supporter 5 5 5 5 4 5 3 8 3Conditional 4 2 3 3 5 5 3 4 6Vulnerable 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1Winnable 12 7 8 10 16 16 9 8 41In Reach 10 5 7 9 12 13 11 8 13Peripheral 13 5 8 11 17 18 16 8 18Unreachable 27 31 30 28 24 24 51 5 9Loyalist/Supporter 32 49 42 36 23 22 8 64 12Conditional/Vulnerable 5 3 4 5 7 7 5 6 7Winnable/In Reach 22 12 15 19 29 29 20 17 54Peripheral/Unreachable 40 36 38 39 42 42 67 14 27Persuadable 27 15 19 24 35 36 25 23 61

Q52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?Total answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Support BO strong 48 45 47 49 43 48 71 24 40Support BO not strong 11 6 8 9 16 15 12 8 15Oppose BO not strong 6 4 5 5 9 8 3 10 7Oppose BO strong 24 36 30 27 15 16 6 45 15(Don't know) 9 7 7 7 13 10 5 10 16(Refused) 3 2 3 2 3 3 1 3 7Total Support BO 59 50 55 58 60 63 84 33 55Total Oppose BO 30 40 36 32 24 24 9 54 22Support - Oppose 29 10 19 26 35 39 75 -22 34

Page 183

Total ENTHUSIASM GOV VOTE

Page 184: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Boxer Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Loyalist 26 74 23 22 9 12 3 5 4 60 17 8 4 11Supporter 11 9 31 19 10 14 11 15 2 15 15 13 6 13Conditional 8 3 15 32 16 11 14 8 1 6 25 13 3 17Vulnerable 7 3 13 4 31 15 9 10 3 6 15 12 5 13Winnable 6 2 2 5 10 29 6 4 2 2 7 19 3 15In Reach 5 3 1 9 12 3 17 7 4 2 10 9 5 9Peripheral 7 1 9 6 7 2 18 21 6 3 6 9 10 8Unreachable 29 6 6 4 7 14 22 31 77 6 5 18 65 13Loyalist/Supporter 37 83 54 40 19 26 14 19 6 75 31 21 9 25Conditional/Vulnerable 16 6 28 36 47 26 23 17 4 12 41 25 8 31Winnable/In Reach 11 4 4 14 21 32 23 12 6 4 17 28 8 24Peripheral/Unreachable 36 7 14 10 13 16 40 52 84 9 11 26 75 21Persuadable 27 11 32 50 68 58 46 29 10 16 57 53 15 54

Fiorina Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Loyalist 28 5 6 4 7 10 18 29 75 5 5 14 63 10Supporter 5 1 7 4 4 1 8 16 5 2 4 4 8 4Conditional 4 2 1 7 12 1 12 6 2 2 9 6 3 7Vulnerable 2 0 2 5 5 2 4 4 1 0 5 2 1 3Winnable 12 4 14 4 35 45 13 11 5 7 17 31 6 26In Reach 10 4 15 33 16 12 24 9 4 7 26 17 5 20Peripheral 13 9 33 21 12 15 17 19 3 16 18 16 7 17Unreachable 27 75 23 22 9 13 4 7 5 61 17 9 6 12Loyalist/Supporter 32 6 12 7 10 12 26 45 80 8 9 18 71 15Conditional/Vulnerable 5 2 2 12 17 3 16 10 3 2 14 8 5 10Winnable/In Reach 22 8 29 37 51 58 37 20 9 13 43 49 12 47Peripheral/Unreachable 40 84 56 43 22 28 21 26 9 77 34 25 13 29Persuadable 27 10 32 49 68 60 52 29 11 16 57 57 16 57

Q52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?Total answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Support BO strong 48 76 75 65 45 50 42 30 14 76 57 46 18 50Support BO not strong 11 11 10 15 23 10 17 15 6 11 18 13 8 15Oppose BO not strong 6 1 2 10 6 9 9 14 7 2 8 9 9 9Oppose BO strong 24 5 7 5 17 10 20 29 58 5 10 14 50 13(Don't know) 9 5 5 6 8 14 9 12 11 5 7 12 11 10(Refused) 3 1 2 0 1 8 1 1 4 2 1 5 3 4Total Support BO 59 87 84 80 68 59 60 44 20 87 75 59 26 65Total Oppose BO 30 6 9 14 23 18 29 42 66 7 18 23 59 21Support - Oppose 29 81 76 65 45 41 30 2 -46 80 57 36 -33 44

Page 184

Total BROWN VCS

Page 185: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Boxer Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Loyalist 26 3 5 3 18 5 19 18 69 4 11 12 53 11Supporter 11 2 14 9 20 6 16 29 9 5 15 11 15 12Conditional 8 1 8 19 15 9 27 12 4 3 17 18 6 18Vulnerable 7 3 10 12 17 22 5 12 3 4 14 14 6 14Winnable 6 1 5 8 8 32 4 3 3 2 8 19 3 15In Reach 5 4 6 14 1 8 13 3 3 4 8 10 3 9Peripheral 7 6 19 11 2 7 9 12 2 9 7 8 5 7Unreachable 29 79 33 22 18 10 7 11 9 68 20 9 10 13Loyalist/Supporter 37 5 19 13 38 12 35 47 77 9 25 23 68 24Conditional/Vulnerable 16 4 18 31 32 32 32 24 6 7 32 32 12 32Winnable/In Reach 11 5 11 22 9 40 18 6 6 7 16 29 6 24Peripheral/Unreachable 36 86 52 34 21 17 16 24 11 78 27 16 15 20Persuadable 27 9 29 53 42 72 49 30 12 14 47 61 17 56

Fiorina Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Loyalist 28 79 32 21 16 6 7 10 6 68 18 6 7 11Supporter 5 5 18 10 2 4 3 6 1 8 6 4 3 5Conditional 4 2 5 12 1 6 10 2 2 3 6 8 2 7Vulnerable 2 0 5 6 2 3 4 1 0 2 4 3 1 4Winnable 12 3 11 14 24 55 7 15 4 5 19 32 8 27In Reach 10 4 8 23 15 10 32 13 5 5 19 21 7 20Peripheral 13 3 15 9 22 9 19 34 10 6 15 14 17 14Unreachable 27 3 5 5 18 7 19 19 72 4 11 13 55 12Loyalist/Supporter 32 84 50 31 18 10 10 16 7 76 25 10 10 15Conditional/Vulnerable 5 3 10 17 3 10 14 3 2 4 10 11 2 11Winnable/In Reach 22 7 20 37 39 65 38 29 9 10 38 52 15 47Peripheral/Unreachable 40 6 20 14 40 16 38 52 82 10 27 26 73 26Persuadable 27 10 30 54 42 75 52 31 11 14 48 64 17 58

Q52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?Total answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Support BO strong 48 14 26 48 48 47 54 67 72 17 48 51 70 50Support BO not strong 11 4 15 16 8 16 19 10 12 7 12 17 11 15Oppose BO not strong 6 7 16 8 15 5 10 3 2 9 11 7 2 9Oppose BO strong 24 60 33 21 11 13 9 11 6 53 16 11 8 13(Don't know) 9 11 9 6 13 13 6 8 6 10 9 10 7 10(Refused) 3 4 2 1 5 7 1 2 2 3 3 4 2 4Total Support BO 59 18 41 64 57 63 74 76 84 24 60 68 81 65Total Oppose BO 30 67 48 29 26 17 20 14 8 63 27 18 10 22Support - Oppose 29 -49 -7 35 31 46 54 62 75 -39 33 50 71 43

Page 185

Total WHITMAN VCS

Page 186: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Brown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

better

Govt back

groundBiz back ground

Brown better

Whit man

better Boxer Fiorina DK/ Ref

Boxer Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Loyalist 26 48 6 49 9 53 8 41 11 53 8 49 0 0Supporter 11 15 8 15 8 14 9 14 8 15 9 21 0 0Conditional 8 10 4 11 4 9 7 9 8 10 5 16 0 0Vulnerable 7 8 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 14 0 0Winnable 6 2 2 2 3 3 3 6 3 2 4 0 4 48In Reach 5 4 6 4 6 5 5 6 5 4 5 0 10 15Peripheral 7 5 9 4 8 4 9 5 9 2 9 0 13 24Unreachable 29 7 60 9 54 6 52 13 48 7 54 0 73 13Loyalist/Supporter 37 63 13 64 17 67 17 55 19 68 17 70 0 0Conditional/Vulnerable 16 18 10 17 12 16 14 16 16 17 12 30 0 0Winnable/In Reach 11 6 8 7 9 8 8 12 8 6 9 0 14 64Peripheral/Unreachable 36 12 69 12 62 10 61 17 57 9 63 0 86 36Persuadable 27 24 18 24 21 23 22 27 24 23 21 30 14 64

Fiorina Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Loyalist 28 7 59 9 53 6 51 12 46 6 53 0 73 0Supporter 5 3 8 3 7 2 8 3 6 2 7 0 13 0Conditional 4 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 0 10 0Vulnerable 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 3 1 1 2 0 4 0Winnable 12 9 7 7 9 8 8 11 11 7 9 14 0 52In Reach 10 12 6 12 6 10 8 10 10 11 7 16 0 19Peripheral 13 16 9 15 9 15 11 15 10 15 10 21 0 20Unreachable 27 49 6 50 9 54 8 42 12 54 8 49 0 8Loyalist/Supporter 32 10 67 11 60 8 59 15 53 8 60 0 86 0Conditional/Vulnerable 5 4 6 4 6 5 6 7 4 5 5 0 14 0Winnable/In Reach 22 20 13 19 15 18 17 20 21 18 16 30 0 72Peripheral/Unreachable 40 65 14 65 18 69 19 58 22 70 19 70 0 28Persuadable 27 24 19 23 22 23 22 28 25 23 21 30 14 72

Q52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?Total answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Support BO strong 48 70 25 71 28 74 28 65 32 73 28 70 18 42Support BO not strong 11 12 6 13 8 12 8 11 10 10 8 14 6 10Oppose BO not strong 6 4 10 4 9 2 9 5 8 4 9 4 9 8Oppose BO strong 24 6 50 8 44 5 44 11 38 6 43 5 53 12(Don't know) 9 6 6 4 8 6 8 7 9 6 9 6 10 21(Refused) 3 2 3 1 3 1 3 2 3 1 3 2 3 7Total Support BO 59 82 31 83 36 86 36 76 42 84 35 84 25 52Total Oppose BO 30 10 60 12 53 7 53 15 46 10 52 8 62 20Support - Oppose 29 72 -29 72 -16 79 -17 61 -4 74 -17 76 -37 33

Page 186

ENERGY BCKGRND ECONOMY SEN VOTETotal UNDERSTAND CLEAR PLAN

Page 187: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Boxer Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Loyalist 26 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 70 0 0 0 0Supporter 11 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 0 0 0 0Conditional 8 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 53 0 0 31Vulnerable 7 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 47 0 0 28Winnable 6 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 53 0 22In Reach 5 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 47 0 19Peripheral 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 19 0Unreachable 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 81 0Loyalist/Supporter 37 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0Conditional/Vulnerable 16 0 0 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 59Winnable/In Reach 11 0 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 0 41Peripheral/Unreachable 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 0 100 0Persuadable 27 0 0 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 100 100 0 100

Fiorina Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Loyalist 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 94 0 0 0 76 0Supporter 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 70 0 0 0 0 13 0Conditional 4 0 0 0 0 0 72 0 0 0 0 34 0 14Vulnerable 2 0 0 0 0 28 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 6Winnable 12 0 0 0 100 62 7 2 2 0 47 36 2 43In Reach 10 0 0 100 0 6 16 7 0 0 53 11 2 35Peripheral 13 0 100 0 0 3 4 18 1 30 0 3 4 1Unreachable 27 100 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 70 0 1 3 0Loyalist/Supporter 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 70 94 0 0 0 90 0Conditional/Vulnerable 5 0 0 0 0 28 72 0 0 0 0 49 0 20Winnable/In Reach 22 0 0 100 100 68 23 10 2 0 100 47 3 78Peripheral/Unreachable 40 100 100 0 0 4 5 20 4 100 0 4 7 2Persuadable 27 0 0 100 100 96 95 10 2 0 100 96 3 98

Q52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?Total answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Support BO strong 48 80 64 59 57 52 46 29 11 75 58 49 15 54Support BO not strong 11 9 15 21 21 9 14 13 5 11 21 11 6 17Oppose BO not strong 6 2 3 10 5 7 11 12 9 2 7 9 9 8Oppose BO strong 24 2 7 4 9 7 18 23 62 4 7 12 55 9(Don't know) 9 4 11 6 6 19 9 20 9 6 6 14 11 9(Refused) 3 3 0 1 2 7 2 4 4 2 2 5 4 3Total Support BO 59 90 79 79 78 60 61 41 16 86 79 60 21 71Total Oppose BO 30 4 10 14 14 14 29 35 71 6 14 21 64 17Support - Oppose 29 85 69 65 64 47 32 6 -55 80 65 40 -43 54

Page 187

Total BOXER VCS

Page 188: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Boxer Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Loyalist 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 96 0 0 0 65 0Supporter 11 0 0 0 0 0 86 0 0 0 0 28 0Conditional 8 0 0 0 0 82 0 0 0 0 37 0 30Vulnerable 7 0 0 0 62 0 0 0 0 0 34 0 27Winnable 6 0 0 0 30 4 1 0 0 31 18 1 21In Reach 5 0 0 100 3 8 2 0 0 69 5 1 18Peripheral 7 0 100 0 1 5 10 1 15 0 3 4 2Unreachable 29 100 0 0 4 0 2 3 85 0 2 3 2Loyalist/Supporter 37 0 0 0 0 0 86 96 0 0 0 92 0Conditional/Vulnerable 16 0 0 0 62 82 0 0 0 0 71 0 57Winnable/In Reach 11 0 0 100 33 12 3 0 0 100 24 1 39Peripheral/Unreachable 36 100 100 0 5 6 11 4 100 0 5 6 4Persuadable 27 0 0 100 95 94 3 0 0 100 95 1 96

Fiorina Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Loyalist 28 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 85 0 0 0 0Supporter 5 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 0Conditional 4 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 69 0 0 14Vulnerable 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31 0 0 6Winnable 12 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 55 0 44In Reach 10 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 45 0 36Peripheral 13 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 32 0Unreachable 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 68 0Loyalist/Supporter 32 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0Conditional/Vulnerable 5 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 20Winnable/In Reach 22 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 0 80Peripheral/Unreachable 40 0 0 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 0 100 0Persuadable 27 0 0 100 100 100 0 0 0 100 100 0 100

Q52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?Total answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Support BO strong 48 11 27 45 52 55 61 77 14 48 53 72 52Support BO not strong 11 4 11 16 15 19 16 11 5 14 17 12 16Oppose BO not strong 6 9 9 13 5 11 4 2 9 12 8 3 8Oppose BO strong 24 64 28 15 11 6 7 3 59 16 9 4 10(Don't know) 9 8 19 8 11 8 13 4 10 8 9 7 9(Refused) 3 3 5 2 6 1 0 3 4 2 4 2 3Total Support BO 59 15 38 61 68 73 76 88 18 63 70 84 69Total Oppose BO 30 73 38 29 15 18 11 5 68 28 16 7 19Support - Oppose 29 -58 0 32 52 56 65 83 -49 35 54 77 50

Page 188

Total FIORINA VCS

Page 189: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Support Obama

Oppose Obama

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better Favor Oppose

Impor tant

Not Impor tant

Boxer Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Loyalist 26 40 4 55 3 54 1 58 2 14 40 33 4Supporter 11 15 4 17 4 18 1 16 2 10 12 13 6Conditional 8 11 4 13 2 11 2 10 3 7 9 10 2Vulnerable 7 10 3 9 2 9 2 8 2 10 6 9 3Winnable 6 6 3 1 4 2 2 1 3 4 4 7 2In Reach 5 5 5 3 7 3 7 3 5 5 5 6 3Peripheral 7 5 8 2 9 1 8 2 9 9 5 6 9Unreachable 29 8 70 2 70 2 76 3 73 41 19 16 71Loyalist/Supporter 37 55 7 71 7 72 2 74 5 24 52 46 11Conditional/Vulnerable 16 21 7 22 4 20 4 18 5 17 15 19 5Winnable/In Reach 11 11 8 4 11 5 10 4 8 9 9 13 5Peripheral/Unreachable 36 13 78 3 79 3 84 4 82 50 24 22 80Persuadable 27 32 15 26 14 25 13 21 13 27 24 32 10

Fiorina Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Loyalist 28 7 68 1 69 2 76 2 73 39 18 15 68Supporter 5 3 6 1 8 1 7 1 9 7 3 4 7Conditional 4 4 4 2 6 2 7 2 5 4 4 4 3Vulnerable 2 2 1 1 3 1 2 1 3 2 2 2 1Winnable 12 14 6 9 3 9 2 8 3 12 9 14 5In Reach 10 13 6 14 3 12 3 10 3 9 10 12 3Peripheral 13 17 5 17 5 18 1 16 2 11 14 15 7Unreachable 27 41 5 55 3 54 1 59 2 15 40 34 7Loyalist/Supporter 32 10 74 2 77 3 83 4 81 46 21 19 75Conditional/Vulnerable 5 6 5 3 10 4 9 3 8 6 6 6 3Winnable/In Reach 22 26 12 23 6 21 5 18 6 21 19 26 8Peripheral/Unreachable 40 58 9 72 8 72 3 75 5 26 54 49 14Persuadable 27 32 17 26 15 25 14 21 14 27 24 32 12

Q52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?Total answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Support BO strong 48 81 0 75 20 76 17 76 16 37 58 58 15Support BO not strong 11 19 0 13 6 12 5 11 6 12 10 12 6Oppose BO not strong 6 0 21 3 10 3 10 3 9 7 8 6 8Oppose BO strong 24 0 79 4 53 3 60 3 56 33 16 11 61(Don't know) 9 0 0 5 8 5 6 5 9 9 7 9 6(Refused) 3 0 0 1 3 1 3 1 3 3 2 3 3Total Support BO 59 100 0 88 26 88 22 87 23 49 68 71 22Total Oppose BO 30 0 100 6 63 6 70 6 66 40 24 17 69Support - Oppose 29 100 -100 82 -37 82 -48 81 -43 9 44 54 -48

Page 189

SHARE VALUES JOBS ECON PROP 23 GW IMPTTotal SENTYPE CHANGE

Page 190: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

White Black Latino Asian Men Women Men Women Men Women

Boxer Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Loyalist 26 28 34 18 29 25 27 25 30 20 17Supporter 11 10 11 14 15 11 11 10 10 13 14Conditional 8 7 10 15 2 8 8 8 7 14 16Vulnerable 7 6 4 13 15 6 9 3 7 11 14Winnable 6 4 7 10 9 6 5 4 5 11 8In Reach 5 4 11 5 10 4 7 2 7 5 5Peripheral 7 6 4 10 8 6 7 7 6 8 11Unreachable 29 35 18 16 11 34 25 41 30 18 14Loyalist/Supporter 37 38 45 32 45 35 39 35 40 33 31Conditional/Vulnerable 16 13 14 28 17 14 17 11 14 26 30Winnable/In Reach 11 9 19 14 19 10 12 6 11 16 13Peripheral/Unreachable 36 41 22 25 19 41 32 48 35 25 25Persuadable 27 21 33 43 36 24 29 17 25 41 44

Fiorina Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Loyalist 28 34 14 13 10 32 23 39 29 14 12Supporter 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 4 5 4Conditional 4 3 11 3 7 3 4 2 5 4 3Vulnerable 2 1 5 2 3 2 1 1 2 3 1Winnable 12 9 11 21 22 10 14 6 11 20 22In Reach 10 9 10 17 6 9 11 8 9 16 19Peripheral 13 11 11 19 19 12 14 12 11 16 21Unreachable 27 28 34 21 29 26 28 26 30 23 19Loyalist/Supporter 32 39 18 17 13 38 28 45 33 18 16Conditional/Vulnerable 5 5 16 5 10 5 6 3 6 6 3Winnable/In Reach 22 17 21 39 28 19 24 14 20 36 40Peripheral/Unreachable 40 39 45 40 49 38 42 38 41 39 40Persuadable 27 22 37 43 38 24 30 17 26 43 44

Q52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?Total answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Support BO strong 48 43 65 57 58 45 50 41 45 53 59Support BO not strong 11 10 11 14 23 12 10 11 9 12 15Oppose BO not strong 6 7 0 5 4 7 6 8 6 6 5Oppose BO strong 24 28 15 15 9 25 22 28 27 19 12(Don't know) 9 9 3 8 7 7 10 7 10 9 8(Refused) 3 3 6 0 0 3 3 4 3 0 1Total Support BO 59 53 76 70 81 57 60 52 54 66 74Total Oppose BO 30 35 15 21 12 32 28 37 33 25 17Support - Oppose 29 18 61 50 68 25 32 16 21 41 57

Page 190

WHT GEN LAT GENTotal RACE GENDER

Page 191: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over

Boxer Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Loyalist 26 15 22 27 32 31 21 31Supporter 11 17 13 11 10 7 13 9Conditional 8 19 7 5 7 5 10 6Vulnerable 7 15 11 6 5 4 10 4Winnable 6 9 7 6 4 5 7 4In Reach 5 7 8 5 4 4 7 4Peripheral 7 7 11 8 4 5 9 5Unreachable 29 11 21 33 35 40 22 37Loyalist/Supporter 37 31 35 37 42 37 35 40Conditional/Vulnerable 16 34 18 11 11 9 21 10Winnable/In Reach 11 16 15 11 7 8 14 8Peripheral/Unreachable 36 19 32 41 39 46 31 42Persuadable 27 50 33 22 19 17 35 18

Fiorina Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Loyalist 28 8 20 32 34 38 20 36Supporter 5 4 7 6 4 4 6 4Conditional 4 6 5 2 3 3 4 3Vulnerable 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 1Winnable 12 22 17 9 8 7 16 8In Reach 10 21 10 9 7 6 13 7Peripheral 13 20 17 12 11 8 16 10Unreachable 27 17 22 27 33 32 22 32Loyalist/Supporter 32 13 27 38 38 42 26 39Conditional/Vulnerable 5 8 8 4 4 4 7 4Winnable/In Reach 22 43 26 18 15 13 29 14Peripheral/Unreachable 40 37 39 39 44 40 38 42Persuadable 27 50 34 23 19 18 36 18

Q52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?Total answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Support BO strong 48 52 52 45 49 44 50 46Support BO not strong 11 20 15 10 7 6 15 6Oppose BO not strong 6 8 8 6 6 5 7 5Oppose BO strong 24 12 17 27 26 31 19 28(Don't know) 9 7 6 10 9 10 7 9(Refused) 3 1 1 2 4 4 1 4Total Support BO 59 72 68 55 55 50 65 53Total Oppose BO 30 20 26 33 32 35 26 33Support - Oppose 29 52 42 22 23 15 38 20

Page 191

Total AGE

Page 192: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over 18-29 30-4950 and

over 18-4950 and

over

Boxer Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Loyalist 26 12 25 27 32 30 22 31 12 18 29 14 29Supporter 11 19 9 9 11 7 12 9 15 16 8 16 8Conditional 8 25 9 3 5 4 10 5 18 11 15 15 15Vulnerable 7 17 7 4 4 2 9 3 13 14 11 14 11Winnable 6 9 3 4 2 4 5 3 11 12 5 11 5In Reach 5 0 9 6 4 3 6 4 6 3 5 5 5Peripheral 7 5 11 9 4 5 8 4 11 11 6 11 6Unreachable 29 14 27 38 38 44 28 41 13 14 21 14 21Loyalist/Supporter 37 31 34 36 43 37 34 40 27 34 38 30 38Conditional/Vulnerable 16 42 16 7 9 6 19 8 31 26 25 29 25Winnable/In Reach 11 9 13 10 6 8 11 7 17 15 10 16 10Peripheral/Unreachable 36 19 37 46 41 49 36 45 25 25 27 25 27Persuadable 27 51 29 18 15 14 30 15 48 41 35 45 35

Fiorina Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Loyalist 28 11 27 38 37 42 27 39 9 12 18 10 18Supporter 5 5 6 7 3 4 6 4 4 5 4 5 4Conditional 4 0 6 3 3 3 3 3 5 1 3 3 3Vulnerable 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 0 2 0Winnable 12 24 10 8 5 5 13 5 21 23 17 22 17In Reach 10 25 12 8 6 4 13 5 20 14 17 18 17Peripheral 13 19 12 9 12 9 13 10 22 22 10 22 10Unreachable 27 14 25 27 33 31 23 32 16 20 31 17 31Loyalist/Supporter 32 16 33 45 40 46 34 43 13 18 22 15 22Conditional/Vulnerable 5 2 8 4 4 5 5 4 8 3 3 6 3Winnable/In Reach 22 48 22 15 11 10 26 11 42 38 34 40 34Peripheral/Unreachable 40 34 37 36 44 39 36 42 37 42 41 39 41Persuadable 27 51 30 19 15 15 31 15 49 40 37 45 37

Q52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?Total answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Support BO strong 48 51 48 37 45 41 44 43 51 59 63 54 63Support BO not strong 11 21 12 12 7 6 14 6 18 13 8 16 8Oppose BO not strong 6 6 11 8 7 6 8 7 11 2 1 7 1Oppose BO strong 24 14 23 32 28 32 25 30 13 16 18 14 18(Don't know) 9 6 7 10 8 11 8 9 7 9 10 8 10(Refused) 3 2 0 2 5 5 1 5 0 1 0 0 0Total Support BO 59 72 60 49 52 47 58 50 69 72 71 70 71Total Oppose BO 30 20 34 40 35 38 33 36 24 19 19 22 19Support - Oppose 29 52 26 9 17 9 25 13 45 53 52 49 52

Page 192

Total WHT AGE LAT AGE

Page 193: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Young Women

Young Men

Older Women

Older Men

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Boxer Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Loyalist 26 21 21 33 29 18 19 29 40 19 34Supporter 11 14 12 9 9 13 11 11 10 12 10Conditional 8 9 11 7 5 12 10 7 3 11 6Vulnerable 7 12 8 5 3 12 7 8 3 9 6Winnable 6 7 8 4 4 9 8 4 2 8 3In Reach 5 8 5 5 2 5 7 4 4 6 4Peripheral 7 10 8 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 7Unreachable 29 17 27 32 43 24 30 31 30 28 31Loyalist/Supporter 37 36 33 42 38 31 29 39 51 30 44Conditional/Vulnerable 16 22 20 12 8 25 18 15 7 20 11Winnable/In Reach 11 15 13 9 6 13 15 8 6 15 7Peripheral/Unreachable 36 28 34 37 48 31 38 38 36 35 37Persuadable 27 37 33 21 14 38 33 23 13 35 19

Fiorina Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Loyalist 28 16 25 31 41 22 27 30 30 25 30Supporter 5 6 6 4 4 4 5 6 4 5 5Conditional 4 4 4 4 1 3 6 3 3 5 3Vulnerable 2 1 3 1 1 3 2 1 0 2 1Winnable 12 18 13 8 7 19 14 11 5 16 8In Reach 10 14 12 7 6 14 12 9 5 13 7Peripheral 13 18 14 10 10 16 14 11 12 14 11Unreachable 27 22 23 35 30 20 21 29 41 20 34Loyalist/Supporter 32 22 30 34 45 26 32 36 34 30 35Conditional/Vulnerable 5 6 8 6 2 6 8 4 3 7 4Winnable/In Reach 22 32 25 16 12 33 26 20 10 29 16Peripheral/Unreachable 40 40 37 44 40 35 34 40 53 35 46Persuadable 27 38 33 22 15 38 34 24 14 36 19

Q52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?Total answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Support BO strong 48 54 45 47 46 50 44 47 54 46 50Support BO not strong 11 12 18 7 6 9 14 10 10 12 10Oppose BO not strong 6 7 7 4 7 7 7 7 4 7 6Oppose BO strong 24 17 21 26 30 21 25 24 23 23 24(Don't know) 9 7 8 12 7 11 9 8 7 10 8(Refused) 3 2 1 3 5 2 3 4 2 2 3Total Support BO 59 66 63 54 52 59 57 57 64 58 60Total Oppose BO 30 25 29 31 37 28 32 31 27 30 29Support - Oppose 29 42 35 24 15 31 26 26 36 28 31

Page 193

Total GENDER/AGE EDUCATION

Page 194: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Non College College

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Boxer Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Loyalist 26 15 19 29 43 18 35 17 23 17 32 20 35Supporter 11 9 10 11 9 10 10 14 13 12 10 12 11Conditional 8 7 9 8 4 9 6 18 8 12 5 10 6Vulnerable 7 13 6 5 2 8 4 12 16 7 5 11 7Winnable 6 6 6 4 2 6 3 11 3 9 3 7 3In Reach 5 4 6 3 4 6 4 5 5 5 2 8 6Peripheral 7 6 6 8 5 6 6 11 7 6 7 9 6Unreachable 29 40 38 33 31 39 32 13 25 33 36 23 26Loyalist/Supporter 37 24 29 40 52 27 45 31 36 28 42 32 47Conditional/Vulnerable 16 19 15 13 6 16 10 30 24 18 10 22 12Winnable/In Reach 11 10 12 8 6 11 7 16 9 14 5 15 9Peripheral/Unreachable 36 46 44 40 36 45 38 23 31 39 43 32 32Persuadable 27 29 27 20 12 28 17 46 33 33 15 37 22

Fiorina Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Loyalist 28 39 36 32 30 37 31 10 21 30 34 21 25Supporter 5 4 5 7 3 5 5 4 6 4 7 5 4Conditional 4 3 4 2 4 4 3 3 2 4 1 5 4Vulnerable 2 2 2 2 0 2 1 2 0 3 1 2 1Winnable 12 17 10 8 3 12 6 21 22 13 7 18 10In Reach 10 8 11 9 5 10 8 20 10 12 6 13 8Peripheral 13 11 11 11 11 11 11 20 15 14 11 15 12Unreachable 27 16 20 29 43 19 36 20 25 19 33 22 36Loyalist/Supporter 32 44 41 39 33 42 36 14 27 34 41 26 29Conditional/Vulnerable 5 5 6 4 4 6 4 6 2 7 3 7 5Winnable/In Reach 22 25 21 17 9 22 13 41 32 26 13 31 18Peripheral/Unreachable 40 27 32 40 54 30 46 40 39 33 43 36 48Persuadable 27 30 27 21 13 28 17 46 34 33 16 38 23

Q52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?Total answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Support BO strong 48 37 37 43 54 37 48 58 54 42 48 49 52Support BO not strong 11 5 12 11 9 10 10 15 10 14 11 10 9Oppose BO not strong 6 9 8 7 5 8 6 6 3 9 5 5 6Oppose BO strong 24 34 32 26 21 33 24 13 23 24 26 22 21(Don't know) 9 12 9 9 7 10 8 8 10 9 6 10 9(Refused) 3 2 3 5 3 3 4 1 0 2 4 3 2Total Support BO 59 42 48 54 64 46 58 73 64 56 59 60 61Total Oppose BO 30 44 40 33 26 41 30 19 26 33 31 27 28Support - Oppose 29 -2 9 21 37 5 28 54 37 22 28 32 33

Page 194

GENDER/EDUCTotal WHT EDUC LAT EDUC

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Boxer Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Loyalist 26 14 33 21 37 13 30 25 38 9 32 24 37Supporter 11 11 10 9 10 15 12 8 9 14 10 8 11Conditional 8 10 6 7 6 13 7 8 4 13 9 6 4Vulnerable 7 3 3 12 4 12 9 6 2 12 6 5 2Winnable 6 5 3 6 4 10 5 6 2 5 5 5 1In Reach 5 3 1 8 6 8 5 4 3 8 4 3 4Peripheral 7 6 7 5 6 9 9 5 5 7 9 4 4Unreachable 29 47 37 32 27 20 24 38 37 32 25 44 37Loyalist/Supporter 37 25 43 30 47 28 42 33 47 22 42 31 48Conditional/Vulnerable 16 13 9 19 10 25 16 15 6 25 15 11 6Winnable/In Reach 11 9 4 13 9 18 9 10 5 13 9 9 5Peripheral/Unreachable 36 53 44 37 33 29 33 42 41 40 34 49 42Persuadable 27 22 13 33 20 43 26 25 12 38 24 20 11

Fiorina Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Loyalist 28 44 36 31 27 17 23 35 36 31 25 43 36Supporter 5 5 7 5 3 5 6 4 4 6 7 4 4Conditional 4 3 1 5 4 6 3 3 3 5 2 3 3Vulnerable 2 1 1 3 1 3 1 2 1 1 2 2 1Winnable 12 8 5 16 7 19 13 11 4 17 9 9 3In Reach 10 11 6 9 9 16 10 10 4 15 12 7 4Peripheral 13 13 11 10 11 19 13 9 10 15 11 9 11Unreachable 27 16 33 21 38 15 30 26 39 10 32 24 38Loyalist/Supporter 32 49 43 36 30 22 30 39 40 37 32 47 40Conditional/Vulnerable 5 3 2 8 5 9 4 5 4 6 4 5 4Winnable/In Reach 22 19 11 25 16 34 23 21 8 32 21 15 7Peripheral/Unreachable 40 29 44 31 48 34 43 35 49 25 43 33 50Persuadable 27 22 13 33 21 44 27 26 12 38 25 20 11

Q52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?Total answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Support BO strong 48 33 47 41 48 48 52 44 49 38 48 37 49Support BO not strong 11 12 10 7 10 16 14 7 6 12 16 7 6Oppose BO not strong 6 13 6 5 7 8 6 6 5 10 7 8 6Oppose BO strong 24 32 26 33 22 19 20 28 27 31 20 33 26(Don't know) 9 9 6 11 10 8 7 12 8 8 8 11 8(Refused) 3 2 5 3 3 2 1 3 5 1 1 4 6Total Support BO 59 45 58 48 59 64 66 51 55 50 64 44 55Total Oppose BO 30 44 31 38 29 27 26 34 32 41 27 41 32Support - Oppose 29 1 26 10 30 37 40 17 23 9 36 3 23

Page 195

Total WHT GEN/EDUC AGE/EDUC WHT AGE/EDUC

Page 196: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

MemberHhold

memberNo

memberTotal Union Member

Hhold member

No member

Total Union Member

No member

Total Union

Boxer Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Loyalist 26 37 18 25 29 41 15 26 32 27 23 25Supporter 11 10 10 11 10 8 14 10 10 13 14 9Conditional 8 3 9 9 5 1 11 8 4 5 12 7Vulnerable 7 3 12 7 7 2 12 5 7 6 13 8Winnable 6 8 9 6 7 7 6 4 5 10 9 10In Reach 5 4 11 5 6 5 8 4 6 3 6 7Peripheral 7 5 9 7 7 3 3 7 3 11 7 13Unreachable 29 30 24 30 28 33 31 36 33 24 16 20Loyalist/Supporter 37 46 28 36 39 49 29 36 41 40 37 34Conditional/Vulnerable 16 6 20 17 13 4 23 13 12 11 24 15Winnable/In Reach 11 12 20 10 13 12 14 8 11 14 15 18Peripheral/Unreachable 36 36 32 37 35 36 34 43 36 35 23 33Persuadable 27 18 40 27 26 15 37 21 23 25 40 33

Fiorina Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Loyalist 28 28 23 28 27 32 31 35 32 18 14 17Supporter 5 5 3 5 4 2 3 6 3 9 4 7Conditional 4 3 6 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 5 4Vulnerable 2 1 0 2 1 1 0 2 0 2 2 2Winnable 12 12 22 11 15 8 22 7 13 20 19 18In Reach 10 4 11 11 7 3 11 9 6 7 14 10Peripheral 13 11 17 13 12 10 14 11 11 13 17 15Unreachable 27 37 18 26 30 41 15 27 32 30 25 26Loyalist/Supporter 32 32 26 33 31 34 34 40 34 28 18 24Conditional/Vulnerable 5 4 6 6 4 4 4 5 3 4 7 6Winnable/In Reach 22 16 32 22 22 11 33 17 19 26 33 28Peripheral/Unreachable 40 48 35 39 42 51 29 38 43 42 42 41Persuadable 27 20 39 28 27 15 37 22 23 30 40 34

Q52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?Total answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Support BO strong 48 54 46 48 48 53 36 43 43 56 57 56Support BO not strong 11 8 17 11 11 8 18 9 11 9 14 12Oppose BO not strong 6 3 1 7 3 2 2 8 3 4 5 3Oppose BO strong 24 21 22 24 22 25 26 28 27 13 16 15(Don't know) 9 12 10 8 12 12 15 7 13 13 8 8(Refused) 3 2 5 3 4 0 3 4 3 6 0 6Total Support BO 59 62 63 59 59 61 54 53 54 65 71 68Total Oppose BO 30 24 23 31 25 27 28 36 29 17 21 18Support - Oppose 29 38 40 27 34 34 25 16 25 48 50 51

Page 196

NONWT UNIONTotal UNION WHT UNION

Page 197: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Married Single

Sep Divor ced

Wid owed

Sep Div Wid

Unmarr ied

Married Women

Unmarr ied

WomenMarried

MenUnmarr ied Men

Voted in person

Voted by mail

Boxer Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Loyalist 26 27 18 37 35 36 25 28 26 26 23 27 28Supporter 11 11 14 8 3 6 11 12 10 10 12 11 10Conditional 8 6 13 9 6 8 11 6 11 7 11 8 7Vulnerable 7 6 13 5 5 5 10 7 11 4 8 9 4Winnable 6 4 9 3 8 5 8 3 8 6 7 7 4In Reach 5 4 7 8 5 6 7 6 7 2 6 4 5Peripheral 7 6 9 5 8 6 8 6 9 6 7 6 7Unreachable 29 35 17 25 31 27 21 30 17 40 25 26 36Loyalist/Supporter 37 38 32 45 38 42 36 41 36 36 35 39 37Conditional/Vulnerable 16 12 26 14 11 13 21 13 22 11 19 17 11Winnable/In Reach 11 8 16 11 13 12 15 10 15 7 14 11 9Peripheral/Unreachable 36 41 26 30 38 33 29 36 26 46 32 32 43Persuadable 27 20 42 25 23 25 36 23 37 18 33 29 20

Fiorina Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Loyalist 28 34 14 23 26 24 18 29 16 39 21 25 34Supporter 5 5 6 4 4 4 5 4 6 6 5 5 5Conditional 4 2 5 7 5 6 6 4 6 1 5 3 3Vulnerable 2 1 4 0 2 1 2 1 2 1 3 2 1Winnable 12 10 18 8 12 10 15 11 17 8 13 14 8In Reach 10 8 16 10 7 9 14 8 15 7 12 10 9Peripheral 13 13 16 10 6 9 13 15 12 10 15 12 12Unreachable 27 28 20 38 37 38 27 29 27 26 26 29 28Loyalist/Supporter 32 39 20 27 30 28 23 33 21 45 26 29 39Conditional/Vulnerable 5 4 9 7 6 6 8 4 8 3 8 6 4Winnable/In Reach 22 17 35 18 20 19 29 19 32 16 25 24 17Peripheral/Unreachable 40 40 36 48 44 47 40 44 40 37 41 41 40Persuadable 27 21 44 25 26 25 37 23 39 18 33 30 21

Q52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?Total answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Support BO strong 48 46 52 51 45 48 50 48 53 43 47 51 43Support BO not strong 11 10 15 9 7 9 13 9 10 10 16 11 10Oppose BO not strong 6 5 9 9 3 7 8 4 7 6 9 5 8Oppose BO strong 24 27 16 21 27 23 19 26 17 28 21 22 28(Don't know) 9 9 7 7 15 10 8 9 11 9 5 9 8(Refused) 3 4 1 3 3 3 2 3 2 4 2 3 3Total Support BO 59 56 67 60 52 57 63 58 63 54 63 62 53Total Oppose BO 30 32 25 30 30 30 27 30 25 34 30 27 36Support - Oppose 29 24 42 30 22 27 36 27 38 20 33 35 17

Page 197

Total MARITAL MARITAL/GENDER 2008

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Voted in person

Voted by mail A B Cell Landline Base Latino

Boxer Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Loyalist 26 32 30 25 28 25 26 28 18Supporter 11 12 6 13 9 10 11 10 14Conditional 8 6 5 7 9 10 8 6 14Vulnerable 7 5 3 8 7 15 6 6 14Winnable 6 5 2 6 6 5 6 5 10In Reach 5 3 5 4 6 4 5 5 6Peripheral 7 5 6 7 6 9 7 7 8Unreachable 29 31 42 30 29 22 30 33 15Loyalist/Supporter 37 44 37 37 37 36 37 39 32Conditional/Vulnerable 16 12 8 15 16 24 14 12 28Winnable/In Reach 11 8 7 10 12 9 11 10 16Peripheral/Unreachable 36 36 48 37 35 31 37 40 24Persuadable 27 20 15 25 28 34 26 22 45

Fiorina Voter Choice ScaleTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Loyalist 28 30 40 28 27 19 29 32 13Supporter 5 4 5 5 5 8 4 5 4Conditional 4 2 3 3 4 3 4 4 3Vulnerable 2 1 0 2 1 2 2 1 2Winnable 12 9 6 12 12 18 11 9 22In Reach 10 9 6 9 11 11 10 8 18Peripheral 13 12 8 15 11 11 13 11 18Unreachable 27 33 31 26 29 28 27 29 19Loyalist/Supporter 32 33 45 33 32 27 33 37 17Conditional/Vulnerable 5 3 4 5 6 5 5 5 6Winnable/In Reach 22 18 12 21 23 29 21 17 40Peripheral/Unreachable 40 45 39 41 40 39 40 41 37Persuadable 27 22 16 26 28 33 27 22 45

Q52 Senator who supports or opposes Obama policies?Total answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Support BO strong 48 49 42 46 49 54 47 45 59Support BO not strong 11 9 9 10 12 18 10 11 12Oppose BO not strong 6 5 7 7 6 6 6 6 6Oppose BO strong 24 25 31 26 22 14 25 26 15(Don't know) 9 8 8 9 8 7 9 9 9(Refused) 3 3 4 2 4 2 3 3 0Total Support BO 59 58 51 57 61 72 57 55 70Total Oppose BO 30 30 38 32 27 20 31 32 21Support - Oppose 29 28 13 24 33 52 26 23 49

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PHONE SAMPLETotal 2006 SPLIT

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LIKELY

Likely Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS

Reg Rep Not ID Rep

Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Mod erate

Conser vative

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)45B Effective for CA 28 30 52 12 7 46 7 20 7 19 51 28 846 Shares values 26 31 46 15 4 42 6 20 10 19 47 25 842 Understands people 25 31 43 17 3 42 6 17 13 24 46 23 944A Too extreme 23 27 11 26 41 13 41 16 33 19 6 20 4543 Can change DC 21 24 37 11 4 35 5 14 8 18 38 18 8

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)45B Effective for CA 46 46 75 30 16 70 16 40 21 49 71 52 1846 Shares values 43 44 70 30 11 65 14 40 24 43 71 43 1742 Understands people 42 44 67 31 12 64 15 35 26 42 65 44 1944A Too extreme 38 39 26 37 63 26 60 31 49 32 13 39 6243 Can change DC 37 38 62 24 9 58 11 30 19 37 60 37 16

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)43 Can change DC 19 24 5 20 42 7 40 14 31 15 2 15 4142 Understands people 18 23 5 17 43 6 39 14 25 11 2 13 4245B Effective for CA 17 22 2 21 40 4 38 15 29 10 4 12 3846 Shares values 17 22 4 17 41 5 39 12 25 10 2 11 4044A Too extreme 13 18 16 14 7 18 9 4 9 22 23 12 5

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)43 Can change DC 35 40 13 38 70 16 66 29 51 27 10 32 6445B Effective for CA 33 37 9 38 67 11 65 31 48 18 9 27 6342 Understands people 31 35 11 31 67 12 61 26 41 23 8 26 6146 Shares values 29 34 10 29 65 11 59 23 43 17 8 24 5944A Too extreme 28 34 42 24 11 40 13 25 17 32 50 28 10

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)44A Too extreme 33 27 33 39 26 33 27 44 34 37 37 32 2843 Can change DC 28 22 25 38 21 26 22 41 30 36 30 31 2046 Shares values 28 23 20 41 24 24 26 37 33 40 21 33 2442 Understands people 27 21 22 38 21 23 24 39 33 35 27 30 2045B Effective for CA 21 17 16 32 16 19 19 30 31 33 19 21 19

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)45B Effective for CA 13 9 66 -8 -51 60 -48 9 -27 31 62 25 -4546 Shares values 13 10 60 2 -54 53 -45 17 -19 25 63 20 -4242 Understands people 11 9 56 0 -55 52 -46 9 -15 19 57 18 -4244A Too extreme 10 6 -16 13 52 -14 46 6 32 0 -36 11 5243 Can change DC 2 -1 49 -14 -62 42 -55 2 -32 10 50 4 -47

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IDEOLOGYTotal PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS

Page 200: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated Right Wrong

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)45B Effective for CA 28 53 40 14 1 14 60 36 15 1 22 32 2746 Shares values 26 49 36 7 2 16 53 34 10 2 21 34 2442 Understands people 25 47 34 6 2 19 51 35 10 3 20 36 2444A Too extreme 23 4 16 34 52 15 7 19 30 50 17 14 2643 Can change DC 21 40 27 6 1 15 44 28 8 2 15 31 19

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)45B Effective for CA 46 73 70 33 6 22 77 66 31 7 39 53 4446 Shares values 43 73 62 16 7 27 76 57 22 9 39 56 4142 Understands people 42 67 61 19 8 30 71 60 25 8 36 62 3944A Too extreme 38 11 33 59 68 32 15 37 52 67 32 34 4143 Can change DC 37 61 55 16 5 24 65 52 19 6 33 54 34

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)43 Can change DC 19 2 7 29 52 13 2 11 27 50 13 8 2142 Understands people 18 2 7 26 52 10 2 10 23 51 13 6 2145B Effective for CA 17 4 3 25 50 15 2 6 26 48 14 11 2046 Shares values 17 2 5 26 52 7 2 7 22 51 11 8 1944A Too extreme 13 23 13 8 5 6 20 16 14 6 8 16 12

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)43 Can change DC 35 9 17 58 77 33 9 22 56 75 28 17 3945B Effective for CA 33 8 14 51 78 29 5 15 48 77 30 19 3742 Understands people 31 7 14 52 75 22 7 17 45 74 25 13 3546 Shares values 29 7 12 55 72 16 7 15 47 70 23 13 3344A Too extreme 28 51 35 14 8 17 50 32 22 8 25 37 28

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)44A Too extreme 33 38 31 27 24 52 35 30 26 25 43 29 3143 Can change DC 28 30 28 26 17 43 26 26 25 19 39 29 2746 Shares values 28 20 27 30 21 57 18 28 31 21 38 32 2642 Understands people 27 26 25 29 17 48 22 23 30 18 38 25 2645B Effective for CA 21 19 17 16 16 49 17 19 20 16 31 28 19

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)45B Effective for CA 13 65 56 -18 -73 -7 72 51 -17 -71 9 33 846 Shares values 13 67 50 -39 -65 11 69 41 -24 -62 17 43 842 Understands people 11 60 47 -33 -66 8 65 42 -20 -65 11 48 444A Too extreme 10 -40 -2 45 60 15 -35 5 29 58 7 -3 1343 Can change DC 2 53 38 -43 -72 -9 56 30 -37 -69 5 36 -5

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Total PTY/IDEO PTYREG/IDEO STATE DIR

Page 201: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

10 8-10 6-10 0-5 0-7 BrownWhit man Und Ref

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)45B Effective for CA 28 34 32 31 21 24 51 6 1146 Shares values 26 32 30 29 18 21 47 7 1142 Understands people 25 31 31 29 16 18 44 8 1544A Too extreme 23 33 28 24 20 18 10 39 1043 Can change DC 21 25 24 22 16 16 36 7 13

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)45B Effective for CA 46 40 43 45 48 49 76 16 2246 Shares values 43 40 41 44 40 44 72 18 2042 Understands people 42 39 42 44 36 42 69 18 2344A Too extreme 38 47 41 40 35 35 23 60 1443 Can change DC 37 35 36 38 35 38 61 15 23

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)43 Can change DC 19 34 27 23 10 10 5 38 442 Understands people 18 31 25 21 11 11 4 38 445B Effective for CA 17 32 26 22 7 8 2 39 946 Shares values 17 31 25 20 10 8 3 36 344A Too extreme 13 15 16 14 8 9 25 4 2

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)43 Can change DC 35 47 43 39 25 27 15 62 1745B Effective for CA 33 49 42 37 23 23 9 65 2142 Understands people 31 45 39 34 23 23 11 58 1346 Shares values 29 44 38 33 22 21 11 55 1144A Too extreme 28 29 30 30 25 26 50 13 8

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)44A Too extreme 33 23 28 30 41 39 27 27 7843 Can change DC 28 18 21 23 40 35 24 23 6146 Shares values 28 16 21 24 38 35 17 28 6942 Understands people 27 16 19 21 40 35 20 24 6345B Effective for CA 21 11 14 18 28 28 15 19 58

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)45B Effective for CA 13 -9 1 8 25 26 67 -49 146 Shares values 13 -4 3 11 18 24 61 -37 942 Understands people 11 -6 3 10 13 19 58 -40 1044A Too extreme 10 18 11 10 10 9 -27 47 643 Can change DC 2 -11 -6 -2 10 10 46 -47 6

Page 201

Total ENTHUSIASM GOV VOTE

Page 202: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)45B Effective for CA 28 62 37 32 34 10 5 11 6 56 33 8 7 1946 Shares values 26 60 35 28 25 16 7 7 4 53 27 12 5 1842 Understands people 25 57 31 24 20 23 12 8 4 50 22 18 5 1944A Too extreme 23 11 4 16 13 13 15 22 52 9 15 14 43 1443 Can change DC 21 44 31 15 28 16 10 9 4 40 20 13 5 16

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)45B Effective for CA 46 82 66 68 73 35 27 23 8 78 70 32 12 4846 Shares values 43 81 62 62 50 33 24 25 8 76 57 29 13 3942 Understands people 42 74 71 56 52 38 25 22 9 73 55 33 12 4144A Too extreme 38 23 18 36 22 25 31 41 70 21 31 28 62 2943 Can change DC 37 66 60 48 56 30 24 22 7 64 51 28 11 36

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)43 Can change DC 19 4 3 10 10 8 7 19 50 4 10 8 42 842 Understands people 18 4 2 5 8 6 13 19 48 3 6 9 41 845B Effective for CA 17 1 1 8 5 10 9 21 49 1 7 9 42 846 Shares values 17 3 1 9 8 8 10 17 46 2 8 9 38 944A Too extreme 13 30 18 22 16 6 6 0 3 26 20 6 2 11

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)43 Can change DC 35 10 18 24 22 14 37 43 75 12 23 24 66 2445B Effective for CA 33 6 15 14 14 16 32 52 75 8 14 23 69 1942 Understands people 31 7 12 19 23 11 30 36 72 9 20 19 62 2046 Shares values 29 7 13 14 26 12 27 31 68 8 19 19 58 1944A Too extreme 28 53 50 44 37 17 19 13 7 52 42 18 9 25

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)44A Too extreme 33 25 33 19 41 58 49 46 23 27 27 54 30 4643 Can change DC 28 24 22 28 22 56 39 35 18 24 26 48 23 4046 Shares values 28 12 25 24 25 54 49 44 23 16 24 52 29 4242 Understands people 27 19 16 25 25 50 45 42 19 18 25 48 26 4045B Effective for CA 21 13 19 18 13 49 41 26 17 14 16 45 19 33

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)45B Effective for CA 13 76 52 54 59 19 -5 -29 -67 70 56 8 -57 2946 Shares values 13 74 49 48 24 21 -3 -6 -60 68 38 10 -46 2142 Understands people 11 67 59 37 30 27 -5 -14 -63 65 34 13 -50 2144A Too extreme 10 -30 -32 -8 -15 8 12 27 63 -31 -11 9 53 343 Can change DC 2 55 42 24 33 16 -13 -22 -67 52 28 3 -55 12

Page 202

Total BROWN VCS

Page 203: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)45B Effective for CA 28 5 8 4 11 24 25 29 58 6 7 25 50 1946 Shares values 26 4 7 8 18 15 25 29 55 5 13 20 47 1742 Understands people 25 4 6 11 27 15 21 29 53 5 19 18 45 1844A Too extreme 23 56 23 20 14 8 16 8 10 47 17 12 9 1443 Can change DC 21 3 9 8 20 18 13 28 40 5 14 15 37 15

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)45B Effective for CA 46 8 24 28 43 48 54 56 78 11 35 51 72 4646 Shares values 43 8 27 25 43 28 53 53 77 12 34 40 69 3842 Understands people 42 8 22 29 51 35 46 60 70 12 40 41 67 4044A Too extreme 38 75 45 43 36 14 32 19 22 67 39 22 21 2943 Can change DC 37 6 21 22 45 33 41 52 62 10 34 37 59 36

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)43 Can change DC 19 54 23 11 11 6 8 5 4 47 11 7 4 842 Understands people 18 52 23 19 10 5 5 3 4 45 15 5 4 945B Effective for CA 17 52 24 9 12 7 8 5 1 46 11 7 2 846 Shares values 17 50 20 15 13 5 7 2 3 43 14 6 2 944A Too extreme 13 3 0 9 9 7 19 14 27 2 9 12 23 11

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)43 Can change DC 35 78 48 45 20 16 25 21 11 71 33 20 14 2545B Effective for CA 33 79 55 41 22 12 17 23 6 74 32 14 11 2042 Understands people 31 75 39 40 19 14 17 15 8 67 29 16 10 2146 Shares values 29 72 33 36 20 15 13 16 7 63 28 14 10 2044A Too extreme 28 7 14 25 25 19 36 39 50 9 25 27 46 26

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)44A Too extreme 33 18 41 32 40 67 32 43 28 24 36 51 33 4543 Can change DC 28 15 31 33 35 52 34 26 27 19 34 43 27 4046 Shares values 28 20 40 38 36 57 33 31 16 25 37 45 21 4242 Understands people 27 17 38 32 30 51 37 26 22 22 31 44 23 3945B Effective for CA 21 13 22 31 35 40 28 21 16 15 32 34 18 34

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)45B Effective for CA 13 -71 -31 -13 21 36 37 32 72 -63 3 37 61 2646 Shares values 13 -65 -6 -11 23 13 40 37 69 -51 6 26 59 1942 Understands people 11 -67 -17 -11 32 21 29 45 61 -55 10 25 56 2044A Too extreme 10 68 31 18 11 -6 -4 -20 -28 58 14 -5 -25 343 Can change DC 2 -72 -28 -23 25 17 17 31 51 -62 1 17 45 11

Page 203

Total WHITMAN VCS

Page 204: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Brown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

better

Govt back

groundBiz back ground

Brown better

Whit man

better Boxer Fiorina DK/ Ref

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)45B Effective for CA 28 51 7 54 10 54 11 45 12 56 11 49 6 246 Shares values 26 48 8 51 9 52 9 40 12 54 9 46 3 142 Understands people 25 47 7 48 11 49 10 39 12 51 10 46 2 144A Too extreme 23 10 42 14 38 10 38 14 35 12 39 10 47 143 Can change DC 21 37 7 40 8 41 8 31 11 45 7 38 2 1

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)45B Effective for CA 46 77 14 78 20 77 25 68 25 80 24 79 9 746 Shares values 43 70 19 71 23 74 23 62 26 76 23 75 8 442 Understands people 42 70 18 72 22 73 22 59 27 75 23 74 6 844A Too extreme 38 26 59 28 55 24 56 28 53 24 57 21 69 743 Can change DC 37 62 16 67 17 68 19 53 22 68 19 65 5 6

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)43 Can change DC 19 6 43 7 39 6 35 8 31 5 36 2 47 242 Understands people 18 5 43 4 38 5 34 7 31 5 36 1 46 145B Effective for CA 17 4 43 5 41 3 35 6 31 3 35 2 43 346 Shares values 17 4 40 5 35 4 33 7 29 4 34 1 43 044A Too extreme 13 24 5 24 6 27 7 21 5 29 5 21 5 0

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)43 Can change DC 35 16 67 16 64 14 59 19 53 13 61 7 80 1045B Effective for CA 33 12 70 12 67 10 58 15 53 11 59 5 78 942 Understands people 31 13 63 13 58 13 54 18 47 12 56 3 77 446 Shares values 29 12 59 13 54 11 52 16 45 11 53 3 72 444A Too extreme 28 48 17 51 17 51 18 42 17 52 17 45 11 7

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)44A Too extreme 33 26 24 21 28 24 26 31 30 24 26 34 19 8743 Can change DC 28 22 17 18 19 18 22 27 25 19 20 28 15 8346 Shares values 28 17 22 15 23 15 25 22 29 13 24 22 20 9242 Understands people 27 17 18 15 20 14 24 23 26 13 22 23 17 8745B Effective for CA 21 11 17 10 13 12 17 17 22 9 16 16 13 84

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)45B Effective for CA 13 65 -56 66 -47 67 -33 53 -28 69 -35 74 -69 -246 Shares values 13 58 -41 58 -32 62 -29 46 -20 65 -30 71 -64 042 Understands people 11 57 -45 59 -36 60 -32 41 -20 62 -33 71 -71 444A Too extreme 10 -21 42 -22 38 -27 38 -14 37 -28 41 -23 58 043 Can change DC 2 45 -50 51 -46 54 -40 34 -31 55 -42 58 -75 -4

Page 204

ENERGY BCKGRND ECONOMY SEN VOTETotal UNDERSTAND CLEAR PLAN

Page 205: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)45B Effective for CA 28 68 34 22 29 3 18 7 2 59 25 10 3 1946 Shares values 26 67 30 23 23 3 8 4 1 56 23 5 2 1642 Understands people 25 66 27 28 25 3 1 4 1 55 26 2 1 1644A Too extreme 23 9 10 14 10 1 12 13 55 9 12 5 46 943 Can change DC 21 51 25 26 22 1 6 3 1 43 24 3 1 15

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)45B Effective for CA 46 90 72 68 61 8 28 15 3 85 65 18 5 4546 Shares values 43 89 69 59 52 13 24 7 3 83 56 18 4 4042 Understands people 42 86 70 63 49 12 16 9 3 82 56 14 4 3944A Too extreme 38 15 32 29 17 14 36 42 72 21 23 23 66 2343 Can change DC 37 78 55 57 47 6 19 9 2 71 52 12 3 35

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)43 Can change DC 19 1 2 1 1 8 19 12 54 2 1 13 46 642 Understands people 18 0 4 0 3 7 16 11 52 1 1 11 45 545B Effective for CA 17 0 0 6 4 11 10 12 50 0 5 11 43 746 Shares values 17 1 0 4 2 2 15 7 51 1 3 8 43 544A Too extreme 13 37 7 7 4 0 4 4 5 27 5 2 5 4

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)43 Can change DC 35 3 13 8 9 24 45 46 84 6 8 34 76 1945B Effective for CA 33 2 5 10 10 27 33 44 83 3 10 30 76 1842 Understands people 31 1 5 4 5 17 50 35 80 2 5 33 72 1646 Shares values 29 2 3 8 6 12 41 34 77 2 7 25 69 1544A Too extreme 28 63 29 35 23 11 29 9 8 51 29 18 8 24

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)44A Too extreme 33 22 39 36 61 75 35 49 20 28 48 58 26 5343 Can change DC 28 19 32 35 45 70 36 45 14 23 40 54 20 4646 Shares values 28 10 28 33 42 75 35 59 20 15 37 56 28 4542 Understands people 27 13 24 33 46 70 34 56 17 16 39 53 24 4545B Effective for CA 21 8 23 23 30 65 39 40 14 12 26 52 19 37

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)45B Effective for CA 13 88 67 58 51 -19 -4 -29 -80 83 55 -12 -71 2746 Shares values 13 87 66 51 46 1 -17 -27 -74 81 48 -7 -65 2642 Understands people 11 86 65 59 44 -5 -33 -26 -78 79 51 -18 -68 2344A Too extreme 10 -48 4 -5 -6 4 7 33 64 -30 -6 5 58 -143 Can change DC 2 74 42 48 38 -18 -25 -38 -82 65 43 -21 -73 17

Page 205

Total BOXER VCS

Page 206: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)45B Effective for CA 28 2 10 24 18 18 30 65 3 19 18 55 1846 Shares values 26 1 6 11 15 19 26 64 2 10 17 52 1542 Understands people 25 1 5 1 16 23 24 63 1 3 19 51 1644A Too extreme 23 59 19 17 7 12 8 8 53 10 9 8 943 Can change DC 21 1 2 9 13 21 22 49 1 7 17 40 15

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)45B Effective for CA 46 3 16 39 37 59 64 87 5 33 48 80 4546 Shares values 43 3 10 26 33 51 60 85 4 30 41 77 3942 Understands people 42 2 12 15 32 55 61 83 4 17 42 76 3744A Too extreme 38 77 63 41 11 28 29 15 75 37 18 20 2243 Can change DC 37 2 10 19 29 50 48 75 3 18 38 66 35

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)43 Can change DC 19 57 13 27 1 3 2 1 50 28 2 2 742 Understands people 18 55 16 22 2 0 4 0 49 23 1 1 545B Effective for CA 17 53 16 14 5 5 0 0 47 18 5 0 746 Shares values 17 54 11 21 2 3 0 1 48 17 2 1 544A Too extreme 13 5 6 6 2 6 6 35 5 3 4 24 4

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)43 Can change DC 35 88 59 61 8 11 13 3 84 62 9 7 1945B Effective for CA 33 87 58 43 10 11 4 2 83 51 10 3 1842 Understands people 31 85 49 69 4 5 6 1 79 64 5 2 1646 Shares values 29 81 43 57 5 9 3 2 75 52 6 2 1544A Too extreme 28 8 12 34 14 31 25 61 8 29 21 48 23

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)44A Too extreme 33 16 25 26 75 41 46 24 17 34 60 32 5543 Can change DC 28 11 32 20 63 39 38 22 14 20 52 27 4646 Shares values 28 16 47 17 63 40 37 14 21 19 52 21 4642 Understands people 27 13 39 15 64 40 33 16 17 19 53 21 4645B Effective for CA 21 10 26 18 53 30 32 11 13 16 42 17 37

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)45B Effective for CA 13 -84 -42 -4 28 48 60 85 -78 -18 37 78 2646 Shares values 13 -78 -33 -31 28 43 57 83 -71 -22 35 75 2442 Understands people 11 -82 -37 -54 28 50 56 82 -75 -47 38 74 2144A Too extreme 10 69 51 7 -3 -3 4 -46 66 8 -3 -28 -143 Can change DC 2 -86 -49 -42 21 39 35 71 -81 -44 29 60 15

Page 206

Total FIORINA VCS

Page 207: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Support Obama

Oppose Obama

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better Favor Oppose

Impor tant

Not Impor tant

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)45B Effective for CA 28 43 1 65 4 59 5 65 4 17 38 35 846 Shares values 26 40 4 58 4 60 0 58 4 16 38 32 642 Understands people 25 39 4 58 4 55 2 58 4 16 37 32 544A Too extreme 23 11 44 13 47 10 55 12 51 33 16 15 4743 Can change DC 21 32 3 56 0 44 3 48 1 15 27 26 5

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)45B Effective for CA 46 68 8 92 10 89 10 89 10 36 56 58 946 Shares values 43 64 8 88 11 100 0 87 9 32 57 53 1242 Understands people 42 63 10 89 10 86 6 86 9 31 57 52 1144A Too extreme 38 26 61 24 71 25 76 24 72 54 26 31 6043 Can change DC 37 55 8 100 0 76 6 80 7 30 45 46 9

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)43 Can change DC 19 5 46 0 54 2 55 2 53 26 12 10 4542 Understands people 18 5 45 1 49 2 55 3 50 25 12 10 4445B Effective for CA 17 5 44 1 44 1 50 1 48 25 12 8 4446 Shares values 17 5 43 1 45 0 58 2 50 24 11 8 4544A Too extreme 13 18 6 25 6 25 5 26 5 6 21 15 5

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)43 Can change DC 35 16 74 0 100 9 88 8 84 46 27 23 7145B Effective for CA 33 13 75 3 81 5 83 6 81 43 27 20 7242 Understands people 31 12 69 3 81 5 88 5 79 44 21 20 6646 Shares values 29 11 68 5 74 0 100 5 76 41 21 18 6444A Too extreme 28 40 12 55 14 52 13 55 12 20 40 34 12

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)44A Too extreme 33 34 27 21 15 23 11 21 16 25 34 35 2743 Can change DC 28 29 18 0 0 16 6 13 9 24 28 31 2046 Shares values 28 25 23 8 16 0 0 9 14 27 22 29 2442 Understands people 27 25 20 8 9 10 6 8 12 25 22 28 2345B Effective for CA 21 19 17 4 9 7 7 5 9 21 16 22 19

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)45B Effective for CA 13 55 -66 89 -70 84 -73 83 -71 -7 29 38 -6246 Shares values 13 53 -60 83 -63 100 -100 82 -67 -8 36 35 -5242 Understands people 11 50 -59 85 -70 81 -82 81 -70 -13 36 33 -5544A Too extreme 10 -14 49 -30 56 -27 63 -30 59 34 -14 -2 4843 Can change DC 2 40 -66 100 -100 67 -82 72 -77 -15 19 23 -62

Page 207

SHARE VALUES JOBS ECON PROP 23 GW IMPTTotal SENTYPE CHANGE

Page 208: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

White Black Latino Asian Men Women Men Women Men Women

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)45B Effective for CA 28 28 57 20 27 26 30 25 30 23 1946 Shares values 26 27 35 21 14 24 28 26 28 19 2242 Understands people 25 25 29 24 17 24 26 23 27 25 2344A Too extreme 23 26 23 18 8 27 19 29 23 21 1443 Can change DC 21 20 27 22 13 18 23 16 23 23 22

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)45B Effective for CA 46 43 64 50 60 44 47 40 44 52 4946 Shares values 43 42 52 43 47 40 46 38 45 43 4242 Understands people 42 39 48 45 60 40 44 36 42 48 4244A Too extreme 38 39 46 33 42 42 35 42 36 35 3143 Can change DC 37 34 49 44 36 34 39 30 37 43 44

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)43 Can change DC 19 22 19 10 7 19 18 22 22 10 942 Understands people 18 22 15 9 6 21 15 25 19 11 845B Effective for CA 17 20 11 11 2 18 17 21 20 9 1346 Shares values 17 21 12 9 6 20 14 24 18 11 844A Too extreme 13 15 6 8 1 14 11 18 13 9 7

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)43 Can change DC 35 40 31 21 22 38 33 44 37 21 2145B Effective for CA 33 38 20 23 6 34 31 39 37 19 2542 Understands people 31 36 32 19 10 35 28 40 32 19 1946 Shares values 29 34 25 19 14 35 25 39 29 22 1844A Too extreme 28 32 25 22 11 29 27 32 31 23 22

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)44A Too extreme 33 29 29 45 47 29 37 25 33 42 4743 Can change DC 28 26 20 36 41 28 28 27 26 36 3546 Shares values 28 25 23 38 39 26 30 23 26 35 4042 Understands people 27 25 20 37 29 25 29 24 26 34 3945B Effective for CA 21 20 17 27 34 21 21 20 19 29 25

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)45B Effective for CA 13 5 44 28 55 10 16 1 8 33 2446 Shares values 13 8 27 23 33 5 21 -1 17 21 2542 Understands people 11 3 16 26 50 6 16 -4 10 29 2444A Too extreme 10 8 21 10 31 12 8 10 6 12 943 Can change DC 2 -6 19 23 14 -3 7 -14 0 23 23

Page 208

WHT GEN LAT GENTotal RACE GENDER

Page 209: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)45B Effective for CA 28 15 23 36 31 35 24 3246 Shares values 26 16 25 24 29 32 21 3042 Understands people 25 18 17 26 30 31 20 3144A Too extreme 23 7 16 26 29 32 17 3043 Can change DC 21 14 18 21 23 27 18 24

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)45B Effective for CA 46 41 46 53 49 44 47 4746 Shares values 43 42 44 43 44 42 43 4342 Understands people 42 41 39 42 46 41 41 4444A Too extreme 38 30 26 46 43 43 35 4343 Can change DC 37 36 35 40 39 36 37 38

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)43 Can change DC 19 7 13 22 21 27 14 2442 Understands people 18 7 15 20 20 25 14 2245B Effective for CA 17 9 9 14 20 29 11 2346 Shares values 17 5 9 24 21 23 13 2244A Too extreme 13 7 8 13 19 13 10 17

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)43 Can change DC 35 21 31 40 39 41 31 4045B Effective for CA 33 24 25 33 35 42 28 3842 Understands people 31 16 26 38 35 37 27 3646 Shares values 29 14 23 36 34 34 25 3444A Too extreme 28 25 30 32 32 23 29 28

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)44A Too extreme 33 44 44 22 25 34 36 2943 Can change DC 28 43 34 20 22 23 32 2246 Shares values 28 44 33 20 21 24 32 2242 Understands people 27 43 35 20 19 22 32 2045B Effective for CA 21 35 28 14 17 14 26 16

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)45B Effective for CA 13 17 21 20 14 2 19 946 Shares values 13 28 21 7 10 7 18 942 Understands people 11 24 13 5 11 4 14 844A Too extreme 10 5 -3 14 11 20 6 1543 Can change DC 2 15 5 0 0 -5 6 -2

Page 209

Total AGE

Page 210: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over 18-29 30-4950 and

over 18-4950 and

over

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)45B Effective for CA 28 18 19 38 28 30 27 29 7 21 39 12 3946 Shares values 26 17 25 25 29 31 23 30 9 22 35 15 3542 Understands people 25 22 13 24 29 29 20 29 12 24 39 17 3944A Too extreme 23 8 16 31 31 32 20 31 9 21 23 15 2343 Can change DC 21 13 16 19 21 25 16 22 14 22 36 17 36

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)45B Effective for CA 46 29 43 48 47 40 42 44 47 53 54 50 5446 Shares values 43 42 46 40 44 40 42 42 39 38 53 39 5342 Understands people 42 34 37 36 45 39 36 42 46 39 50 43 5044A Too extreme 38 29 25 47 44 42 36 43 30 33 35 32 3543 Can change DC 37 35 30 34 37 33 33 35 37 46 50 41 50

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)43 Can change DC 19 6 12 27 22 29 17 25 8 7 15 8 1542 Understands people 18 12 19 25 20 27 20 23 7 8 16 7 1645B Effective for CA 17 12 9 13 21 33 11 26 13 4 16 9 1646 Shares values 17 6 11 30 22 24 18 23 5 9 16 7 1644A Too extreme 13 10 9 18 22 12 13 18 6 7 15 6 15

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)43 Can change DC 35 18 37 48 42 45 37 43 23 16 24 20 2445B Effective for CA 33 29 26 37 37 48 31 42 26 18 23 23 2342 Understands people 31 15 29 46 37 41 33 39 17 17 23 17 2346 Shares values 29 9 24 44 37 38 28 37 22 17 20 20 2044A Too extreme 28 27 37 34 35 24 33 30 21 24 24 22 24

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)44A Too extreme 33 43 38 18 21 34 31 27 49 43 41 46 4143 Can change DC 28 47 33 18 22 23 30 22 40 37 26 39 2646 Shares values 28 49 31 17 19 22 29 20 39 45 27 42 2742 Understands people 27 51 34 18 18 21 32 19 37 44 27 40 2745B Effective for CA 21 43 30 15 16 12 27 14 27 29 23 28 23

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)45B Effective for CA 13 0 17 11 9 -9 10 2 21 36 31 27 3146 Shares values 13 32 22 -4 7 2 14 5 17 21 33 19 3342 Understands people 11 18 7 -10 7 -2 3 3 28 22 26 26 2644A Too extreme 10 2 -13 13 10 18 2 13 10 9 11 9 1143 Can change DC 2 18 -6 -14 -5 -12 -4 -8 15 30 26 21 26

Page 210

Total WHT AGE LAT AGE

Page 211: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Young Women

Young Men

Older Women

Older Men

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)45B Effective for CA 28 27 21 33 32 23 22 31 38 22 3446 Shares values 26 23 20 33 28 22 18 27 39 19 3242 Understands people 25 20 21 33 28 23 19 26 36 20 3044A Too extreme 23 16 17 24 37 26 18 27 23 21 2543 Can change DC 21 17 19 29 19 22 19 20 23 20 22

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)45B Effective for CA 46 49 43 47 46 43 41 48 53 42 5146 Shares values 43 46 40 46 40 41 35 45 52 37 4842 Understands people 42 42 39 46 42 43 35 44 50 38 4744A Too extreme 38 35 35 37 49 44 35 40 34 38 3843 Can change DC 37 38 36 42 33 40 32 36 43 35 39

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)43 Can change DC 19 15 13 22 26 16 18 20 20 17 2042 Understands people 18 11 18 19 25 17 18 18 19 18 1845B Effective for CA 17 9 12 23 24 18 20 16 16 19 1646 Shares values 17 10 16 18 25 18 14 20 17 16 1944A Too extreme 13 5 14 18 15 8 12 13 17 11 15

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)43 Can change DC 35 30 31 36 45 31 36 35 37 34 3645B Effective for CA 33 25 30 37 39 28 34 35 31 32 3342 Understands people 31 24 30 32 40 29 32 31 31 31 3146 Shares values 29 21 29 29 41 26 30 30 30 28 3044A Too extreme 28 25 33 31 26 23 29 27 36 27 30

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)44A Too extreme 33 40 32 32 25 33 36 33 30 35 3243 Can change DC 28 32 32 22 22 28 33 28 20 31 2546 Shares values 28 33 31 24 19 33 35 24 18 34 2142 Understands people 27 34 30 22 19 28 34 25 19 32 2245B Effective for CA 21 25 26 16 14 29 25 16 16 26 16

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)45B Effective for CA 13 24 13 10 7 15 7 13 23 10 1846 Shares values 13 26 10 17 -1 15 6 15 21 9 1842 Understands people 11 18 9 13 2 14 3 12 19 7 1544A Too extreme 10 11 2 6 24 21 6 13 -1 12 743 Can change DC 2 8 5 6 -11 9 -4 1 7 1 3

Page 211

Total GENDER/AGE EDUCATION

Page 212: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Non College College

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)45B Effective for CA 28 17 23 28 38 21 33 18 29 20 33 24 3546 Shares values 26 15 20 27 42 18 34 20 24 19 28 20 3642 Understands people 25 16 18 25 38 17 31 23 26 20 28 21 3344A Too extreme 23 26 23 31 22 24 28 18 18 23 31 20 1843 Can change DC 21 14 18 19 24 17 22 23 20 19 18 21 25

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)45B Effective for CA 46 28 38 43 53 35 48 47 63 42 47 41 5346 Shares values 43 30 35 43 53 33 48 42 44 35 43 39 5342 Understands people 42 33 31 41 50 31 45 44 46 36 44 39 4944A Too extreme 38 41 39 42 34 40 39 35 26 39 43 37 3243 Can change DC 37 26 29 33 44 28 38 45 39 32 36 37 42

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)43 Can change DC 19 27 21 22 20 23 21 8 14 17 21 18 1942 Understands people 18 29 23 20 18 25 19 8 12 20 22 16 1545B Effective for CA 17 35 23 16 17 26 17 13 7 19 17 19 1546 Shares values 17 29 18 23 16 21 20 8 14 18 23 13 1544A Too extreme 13 12 13 15 20 12 17 8 8 15 14 7 16

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)43 Can change DC 35 48 42 38 37 44 38 19 26 37 38 32 3445B Effective for CA 33 48 40 38 30 42 34 23 21 32 36 32 3142 Understands people 31 44 38 34 32 40 33 18 22 34 35 28 2846 Shares values 29 40 33 33 31 36 32 19 22 33 36 24 2544A Too extreme 28 26 30 28 42 29 34 20 30 30 29 24 32

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)44A Too extreme 33 32 31 30 24 31 28 45 44 31 28 39 3643 Can change DC 28 26 29 29 19 28 24 35 36 31 26 31 2446 Shares values 28 29 32 24 16 31 20 39 33 31 21 37 2242 Understands people 27 22 32 25 19 29 22 38 32 29 21 34 2345B Effective for CA 21 24 22 19 17 23 18 30 16 26 16 27 16

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)45B Effective for CA 13 -20 -2 5 22 -7 13 24 42 10 11 9 2346 Shares values 13 -10 2 11 22 -2 16 24 22 2 7 15 2742 Understands people 11 -11 -7 7 18 -8 12 27 25 2 9 11 2244A Too extreme 10 15 8 14 -8 11 5 15 -4 10 14 13 -143 Can change DC 2 -22 -13 -4 6 -16 1 26 13 -5 -2 5 9

Page 212

GENDER/EDUCTotal WHT EDUC LAT EDUC

Page 213: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)45B Effective for CA 28 16 32 25 34 18 31 27 38 19 31 22 3446 Shares values 26 18 32 19 35 15 28 24 36 12 31 23 3642 Understands people 25 16 29 19 33 17 25 24 36 12 25 20 3644A Too extreme 23 24 33 24 22 12 23 33 27 13 27 34 2843 Can change DC 21 14 18 20 25 17 19 24 25 13 19 20 25

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)45B Effective for CA 46 33 45 36 50 42 51 42 51 32 47 38 4946 Shares values 43 30 44 37 52 37 50 39 48 31 50 36 4742 Understands people 42 27 42 36 47 38 44 37 50 30 39 33 4944A Too extreme 38 40 44 39 33 33 36 47 39 33 38 47 4043 Can change DC 37 23 35 32 41 36 38 34 41 29 36 28 41

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)43 Can change DC 19 22 22 23 21 13 15 22 25 17 17 26 2542 Understands people 18 27 23 23 16 13 16 23 21 23 17 26 2145B Effective for CA 17 25 18 27 15 13 8 25 22 18 8 31 2346 Shares values 17 24 24 19 16 12 14 20 23 20 16 23 2344A Too extreme 13 17 17 8 18 9 11 14 19 12 14 14 21

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)43 Can change DC 35 48 40 40 35 29 32 41 39 39 35 48 3945B Effective for CA 33 41 38 43 32 26 29 38 37 33 30 47 3842 Understands people 31 45 37 35 29 26 28 37 34 35 31 44 3446 Shares values 29 41 38 31 26 24 25 34 35 30 28 40 3544A Too extreme 28 32 33 26 35 28 31 26 31 30 37 28 32

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)44A Too extreme 33 28 24 34 32 39 33 27 30 37 26 25 2843 Can change DC 28 29 25 28 24 35 29 25 20 33 29 24 2046 Shares values 28 30 18 32 22 39 25 27 18 39 23 24 1842 Understands people 27 29 21 29 24 36 28 25 16 36 29 23 1745B Effective for CA 21 25 17 21 18 32 20 19 12 35 22 15 13

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)45B Effective for CA 13 -8 7 -7 18 16 22 4 14 -2 17 -9 1146 Shares values 13 -11 6 5 26 12 24 5 13 1 22 -4 1242 Understands people 11 -18 6 0 17 12 15 0 16 -5 8 -11 1544A Too extreme 10 8 11 13 -2 5 6 21 9 3 1 19 843 Can change DC 2 -26 -6 -8 6 7 6 -6 2 -10 1 -20 1

Page 213

Total WHT GEN/EDUC AGE/EDUC WHT AGE/EDUC

Page 214: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

MemberHhold

memberNo

memberTotal Union Member

Hhold member

No member

Total Union Member

No member

Total Union

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)45B Effective for CA 28 27 24 29 26 34 26 27 30 13 32 1846 Shares values 26 31 18 26 26 37 17 26 30 18 24 2042 Understands people 25 32 18 25 27 34 18 24 28 28 27 2444A Too extreme 23 15 21 25 20 14 24 29 21 17 17 1943 Can change DC 21 26 19 20 22 29 17 19 22 20 24 20

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)45B Effective for CA 46 50 36 46 46 51 26 42 44 48 55 5046 Shares values 43 46 35 43 43 47 32 41 44 43 47 4142 Understands people 42 50 32 42 44 48 30 38 43 55 49 4644A Too extreme 38 34 45 39 38 28 46 41 35 47 34 4643 Can change DC 37 46 29 37 39 45 23 33 37 49 45 41

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)43 Can change DC 19 15 18 20 17 15 20 23 18 14 12 1542 Understands people 18 15 18 19 15 16 21 23 17 12 10 1245B Effective for CA 17 17 6 19 13 15 9 22 14 19 11 1146 Shares values 17 15 14 18 16 16 19 21 18 14 10 1144A Too extreme 13 18 10 13 14 24 13 14 19 4 9 3

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)43 Can change DC 35 32 33 36 32 34 41 42 36 27 25 2445B Effective for CA 33 34 25 34 30 32 41 39 33 37 21 2542 Understands people 31 28 28 32 28 30 35 38 31 24 21 2246 Shares values 29 33 27 30 29 33 34 34 33 31 21 2344A Too extreme 28 33 21 28 28 40 22 30 35 18 25 14

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)44A Too extreme 33 33 34 33 33 32 32 28 30 35 41 4043 Can change DC 28 22 38 27 29 21 36 26 27 25 30 3446 Shares values 28 22 38 27 28 19 34 24 24 26 33 3742 Understands people 27 21 40 26 28 21 35 24 26 21 30 3345B Effective for CA 21 16 39 20 24 17 33 19 23 15 23 26

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)45B Effective for CA 13 16 12 13 17 18 -16 3 12 11 34 2546 Shares values 13 13 8 13 14 14 -2 7 11 12 26 1842 Understands people 11 22 4 10 16 18 -5 1 12 31 28 2444A Too extreme 10 1 24 10 10 -12 24 11 0 28 9 3243 Can change DC 2 14 -5 0 7 11 -18 -9 1 22 20 17

Page 214

NONWT UNIONTotal UNION WHT UNION

Page 215: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Married Single

Sep Divor ced

Wid owed

Sep Div Wid

Unmarr ied

Married Women

Unmarr ied

WomenMarried

MenUnmarr ied Men

Voted in person

Voted by mail

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)45B Effective for CA 28 28 20 41 40 41 28 29 31 27 25 27 3246 Shares values 26 25 19 41 34 38 26 26 29 24 23 26 2842 Understands people 25 25 20 36 31 34 25 26 26 24 24 26 2544A Too extreme 23 29 13 18 30 23 16 23 16 34 17 21 2543 Can change DC 21 19 17 30 32 31 22 22 23 17 22 20 22

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)45B Effective for CA 46 45 44 59 50 55 49 47 50 43 47 46 4746 Shares values 43 43 40 51 42 48 43 47 43 38 42 46 4142 Understands people 42 42 40 48 39 45 42 46 41 38 44 44 4044A Too extreme 38 45 28 28 41 33 30 41 29 49 30 37 3943 Can change DC 37 36 35 46 41 44 38 40 38 32 38 37 37

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)43 Can change DC 19 23 11 18 18 18 14 23 13 23 15 18 2342 Understands people 18 22 11 12 20 15 13 20 10 24 17 16 2145B Effective for CA 17 20 11 17 16 17 14 20 12 20 15 16 2146 Shares values 17 21 10 16 13 15 12 18 10 24 15 15 2144A Too extreme 13 10 12 23 16 21 15 11 10 10 21 14 12

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)43 Can change DC 35 40 26 30 32 31 28 37 27 43 29 34 4045B Effective for CA 33 37 24 28 30 29 26 36 24 37 29 30 3842 Understands people 31 36 23 27 30 28 24 33 22 39 28 29 3646 Shares values 29 34 21 26 25 26 23 29 20 40 26 27 3444A Too extreme 28 26 28 38 30 35 30 27 27 26 34 30 29

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)44A Too extreme 33 28 44 34 28 32 40 33 44 25 35 33 3243 Can change DC 28 24 39 24 27 26 34 22 35 25 33 29 2346 Shares values 28 23 39 23 33 27 35 24 37 21 32 26 2542 Understands people 27 22 37 25 31 28 34 21 37 22 29 27 2345B Effective for CA 21 18 32 13 20 16 25 17 27 20 24 24 14

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)45B Effective for CA 13 9 20 31 19 27 23 11 26 6 18 16 946 Shares values 13 9 19 25 17 22 20 19 23 -2 16 19 742 Understands people 11 6 18 22 9 17 17 14 19 -1 16 15 444A Too extreme 10 19 0 -9 11 -1 -1 14 2 23 -4 6 1043 Can change DC 2 -4 9 15 9 13 11 3 12 -12 10 3 -3

Page 215

Total MARITAL MARITAL/GENDER 2008

Page 216: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Voted in person

Voted by mail A B Cell Landline Base Latino

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)45B Effective for CA 28 28 29 0 28 31 28 30 2346 Shares values 26 31 27 26 26 26 26 26 2442 Understands people 25 30 26 25 25 24 25 25 2644A Too extreme 23 23 28 23 0 14 24 24 1843 Can change DC 21 22 22 22 20 18 21 20 23

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)45B Effective for CA 46 45 47 0 46 46 46 45 5146 Shares values 43 48 40 43 42 47 42 42 4542 Understands people 42 46 41 44 41 42 42 41 4644A Too extreme 38 35 40 38 0 37 38 40 3343 Can change DC 37 39 36 38 36 41 36 36 42

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)43 Can change DC 19 20 27 18 20 11 20 21 1042 Understands people 18 18 27 19 17 13 19 20 1045B Effective for CA 17 17 26 0 17 9 18 19 1046 Shares values 17 18 24 17 17 12 18 19 944A Too extreme 13 18 16 13 0 10 13 14 9

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)43 Can change DC 35 34 46 34 36 25 36 38 2445B Effective for CA 33 32 45 0 33 29 33 36 2142 Understands people 31 30 40 29 33 24 32 34 2046 Shares values 29 28 38 28 30 21 31 32 2044A Too extreme 28 35 30 28 0 28 28 30 24

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)44A Too extreme 33 30 30 33 0 35 33 31 4343 Can change DC 28 27 18 28 28 34 27 26 3546 Shares values 28 24 22 29 27 32 27 26 3542 Understands people 27 24 19 27 27 34 26 25 3445B Effective for CA 21 23 8 0 21 25 21 19 28

Q42-46 Summary Senate Better Description...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)45B Effective for CA 13 12 1 0 13 16 13 9 3046 Shares values 13 20 3 15 12 25 12 10 2642 Understands people 11 16 1 14 8 19 10 7 2644A Too extreme 10 0 10 10 0 10 10 10 943 Can change DC 2 6 -10 4 0 16 0 -2 18

Page 216

PHONE SAMPLETotal 2006 SPLIT

Page 217: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LIKELY

Likely Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS

Reg Rep Not ID Rep

Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Mod erate

Conser vative

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)51B Health care 26 29 45 19 2 43 4 19 10 23 46 25 850A Environment 25 33 41 21 5 41 8 17 14 25 50 22 747 Jobs/Economy 21 25 36 13 6 35 7 12 10 17 40 17 948 Immigration 21 25 35 15 4 34 6 17 12 19 40 19 749 Taxes 19 22 32 12 4 31 5 11 9 15 37 14 7

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)51B Health care 42 43 66 31 15 65 16 33 20 47 65 45 1850A Environment 40 46 59 34 16 58 19 32 24 45 67 37 2047 Jobs/Economy 38 38 60 28 11 58 13 29 18 41 60 38 1749 Taxes 36 38 59 26 9 56 12 28 21 38 59 37 1448 Immigration 35 36 56 24 11 54 13 27 18 33 55 36 16

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)47 Jobs/Economy 20 25 5 21 45 6 44 15 33 13 3 16 4249 Taxes 19 24 3 21 44 5 43 12 35 13 1 15 4248 Immigration 16 21 4 15 37 6 33 11 21 12 4 11 3451B Health care 15 21 4 14 35 4 34 10 24 7 2 7 3850A Environment 12 15 3 13 28 6 24 7 16 15 2 11 24

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)47 Jobs/Economy 32 37 11 37 62 13 61 26 50 25 6 31 5849 Taxes 31 37 10 34 64 12 62 23 50 22 7 29 5848 Immigration 28 33 10 31 55 12 51 24 35 21 8 24 5151B Health care 25 31 8 28 51 8 50 21 39 13 5 20 5150A Environment 20 25 7 19 45 11 38 10 26 22 6 18 38

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)50A Environment 40 29 35 47 39 30 43 58 51 32 27 45 4148 Immigration 38 31 34 45 34 34 36 49 46 46 37 40 3349 Taxes 33 25 32 40 27 32 26 49 29 40 35 34 2851B Health care 33 26 26 41 34 27 34 47 41 40 30 35 3147 Jobs/Economy 31 25 29 35 27 28 26 45 32 34 34 31 25

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)50A Environment 20 22 52 15 -29 47 -19 22 -2 23 62 18 -1851B Health care 17 12 58 3 -36 56 -35 12 -19 34 60 25 -3248 Immigration 7 3 46 -7 -44 42 -38 2 -17 11 47 11 -3647 Jobs/Economy 6 1 50 -9 -51 45 -49 4 -32 16 53 7 -4049 Taxes 6 1 49 -8 -54 44 -50 5 -28 15 52 9 -43

Page 217

IDEOLOGYTotal PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS

Page 218: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated Right Wrong

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)51B Health care 26 49 37 8 1 15 55 33 10 1 23 29 2550A Environment 25 52 29 7 4 18 53 32 12 5 19 38 2447 Jobs/Economy 21 42 26 9 2 14 45 26 12 3 15 33 2048 Immigration 21 41 26 11 1 13 44 25 14 1 17 33 1949 Taxes 19 38 22 7 1 13 41 23 9 2 14 26 17

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)51B Health care 42 67 60 28 8 25 73 58 28 8 36 53 4050A Environment 40 68 48 18 14 31 70 49 24 16 33 62 3947 Jobs/Economy 38 62 56 17 7 22 66 53 20 8 32 50 3649 Taxes 36 60 52 17 6 24 65 50 19 7 31 54 3448 Immigration 35 56 50 22 7 19 61 49 23 6 29 46 33

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)47 Jobs/Economy 20 3 6 37 53 12 3 8 33 52 14 8 2349 Taxes 19 1 5 35 53 11 1 9 32 52 11 7 2148 Immigration 16 4 4 25 44 9 3 8 21 42 12 7 1851B Health care 15 2 5 13 48 8 1 7 13 49 10 6 1850A Environment 12 2 4 29 28 6 3 9 25 24 8 4 13

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)47 Jobs/Economy 32 6 15 55 71 29 5 20 52 70 25 12 3649 Taxes 31 6 14 56 71 23 6 18 53 70 22 14 3448 Immigration 28 8 13 40 63 27 6 16 39 61 25 12 3151B Health care 25 5 10 32 64 23 3 12 32 65 21 9 2950A Environment 20 5 8 41 46 12 7 16 36 42 12 12 22

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)50A Environment 40 27 44 41 39 56 23 34 40 43 54 26 4048 Immigration 38 36 37 38 31 55 33 35 38 33 46 42 3649 Taxes 33 34 34 28 24 53 29 32 28 23 47 32 3251B Health care 33 28 30 41 28 51 24 30 40 28 43 38 3147 Jobs/Economy 31 33 29 28 22 49 28 28 28 22 43 38 28

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)50A Environment 20 63 40 -22 -32 19 64 33 -11 -26 21 50 1751B Health care 17 62 50 -4 -56 2 70 46 -4 -57 15 45 1148 Immigration 7 48 37 -18 -56 -8 54 32 -16 -55 4 34 247 Jobs/Economy 6 56 40 -37 -64 -7 61 33 -32 -63 7 38 049 Taxes 6 54 38 -39 -65 1 59 31 -34 -63 9 40 -1

Page 218

Total PTY/IDEO PTYREG/IDEO STATE DIR

Page 219: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

10 8-10 6-10 0-5 0-7 BrownWhit man Und Ref

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)51B Health care 26 32 30 29 20 21 46 7 750A Environment 25 27 29 26 23 21 47 8 1247 Jobs/Economy 21 27 25 23 17 17 38 7 848 Immigration 21 27 24 22 17 17 37 7 1149 Taxes 19 25 23 20 14 14 33 6 9

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)51B Health care 42 39 41 43 39 44 69 18 1550A Environment 40 40 42 41 36 37 65 22 1847 Jobs/Economy 38 36 36 38 36 39 64 15 1649 Taxes 36 37 38 38 30 34 62 15 1448 Immigration 35 36 35 36 30 34 59 13 19

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)47 Jobs/Economy 20 36 29 24 11 10 4 42 449 Taxes 19 34 27 23 9 10 3 41 248 Immigration 16 29 22 19 9 9 3 33 551B Health care 15 33 23 20 4 6 1 35 750A Environment 12 20 17 15 5 7 4 23 2

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)47 Jobs/Economy 32 46 41 35 22 22 11 58 1449 Taxes 31 43 38 34 23 23 10 58 1348 Immigration 28 40 34 30 22 21 10 50 1251B Health care 25 41 34 30 14 16 6 51 1350A Environment 20 30 25 23 12 15 7 37 7

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)50A Environment 40 29 32 35 52 48 28 41 7548 Immigration 38 25 32 34 48 44 31 37 6949 Taxes 33 20 24 28 47 43 28 28 7251B Health care 33 20 26 27 47 41 26 32 7147 Jobs/Economy 31 18 23 27 41 40 25 27 70

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)50A Environment 20 10 17 18 24 23 58 -15 1051B Health care 17 -2 7 14 25 28 63 -33 248 Immigration 7 -4 1 6 8 13 48 -37 747 Jobs/Economy 6 -10 -5 2 14 17 53 -44 349 Taxes 6 -7 -1 4 7 11 51 -43 1

Page 219

Total ENTHUSIASM GOV VOTE

Page 220: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)51B Health care 26 58 25 37 24 13 13 7 4 51 31 13 4 2150A Environment 25 59 32 35 20 16 9 6 6 51 30 13 6 1847 Jobs/Economy 21 47 30 15 32 14 8 6 4 43 22 11 5 1548 Immigration 21 49 19 20 27 15 9 7 4 41 23 12 5 1649 Taxes 19 45 15 18 21 15 6 4 4 37 19 11 4 14

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)51B Health care 42 76 52 61 67 33 32 23 6 70 64 33 10 4650A Environment 40 77 48 67 32 34 27 19 14 68 53 31 16 3847 Jobs/Economy 38 73 55 48 51 24 25 18 8 68 49 24 11 3349 Taxes 36 71 54 48 43 33 17 16 7 66 46 26 9 3348 Immigration 35 67 50 50 45 23 19 19 8 62 48 21 11 31

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)47 Jobs/Economy 20 3 3 9 9 8 14 20 53 3 9 11 44 1049 Taxes 19 2 3 4 7 4 16 23 51 2 5 9 44 848 Immigration 16 3 1 3 15 9 10 15 42 2 8 9 35 951B Health care 15 1 0 3 4 2 12 11 47 1 3 6 38 550A Environment 12 2 5 2 12 4 11 10 31 3 6 7 25 7

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)47 Jobs/Economy 32 7 13 19 20 17 29 35 72 9 19 22 62 2149 Taxes 31 7 9 16 21 9 42 35 69 8 18 24 60 2248 Immigration 28 8 10 16 21 14 28 27 63 8 18 20 53 1951B Health care 25 4 7 5 10 4 30 29 64 5 7 16 55 1250A Environment 20 5 10 9 12 12 21 16 46 7 10 16 38 14

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)50A Environment 40 18 43 25 56 54 52 65 40 25 37 53 47 4848 Immigration 38 26 40 34 35 63 54 54 30 30 34 59 36 5049 Taxes 33 22 37 36 35 58 41 49 24 26 35 51 31 4551B Health care 33 20 41 34 23 63 38 48 30 25 29 51 34 4247 Jobs/Economy 31 19 33 33 30 59 47 46 20 23 32 54 27 46

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)50A Environment 20 72 38 58 19 22 5 3 -32 62 43 15 -22 2451B Health care 17 72 44 56 57 29 2 -5 -58 65 56 17 -45 3448 Immigration 7 59 40 34 24 9 -9 -8 -55 54 30 1 -42 1247 Jobs/Economy 6 66 42 29 31 6 -4 -17 -64 60 30 2 -52 1249 Taxes 6 63 44 32 22 23 -25 -19 -63 58 28 2 -51 12

Page 220

Total BROWN VCS

Page 221: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)51B Health care 26 3 5 20 20 15 28 21 54 4 20 22 45 2150A Environment 25 7 7 12 12 14 31 27 55 7 12 22 45 1847 Jobs/Economy 21 4 6 10 17 19 12 25 44 5 14 15 38 1548 Immigration 21 4 6 13 14 16 19 17 46 5 13 18 37 1649 Taxes 19 4 4 8 17 13 16 14 42 4 12 14 33 14

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)51B Health care 42 6 27 38 51 44 50 44 70 10 44 47 63 4650A Environment 40 15 19 35 43 19 58 40 72 16 39 37 61 3847 Jobs/Economy 38 8 16 27 35 30 39 46 69 10 31 35 62 3349 Taxes 36 7 17 17 48 25 40 46 66 9 33 32 60 3248 Immigration 35 8 18 21 24 30 43 42 62 10 23 36 56 31

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)47 Jobs/Economy 20 57 24 21 12 7 6 4 3 49 17 7 3 1049 Taxes 19 56 28 23 7 4 4 3 2 49 15 4 2 848 Immigration 16 44 19 14 15 9 2 4 3 38 14 5 3 951B Health care 15 50 14 13 3 2 3 4 1 42 9 3 2 550A Environment 12 33 12 16 7 5 2 4 3 27 12 4 3 7

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)47 Jobs/Economy 32 76 41 33 26 13 22 15 8 67 30 17 10 2249 Taxes 31 73 41 48 15 13 18 13 8 66 32 15 10 2148 Immigration 28 66 34 30 23 12 18 13 8 58 26 15 10 1951B Health care 25 66 33 29 6 6 15 11 6 59 18 10 7 1350A Environment 20 50 19 27 18 9 6 10 5 42 22 8 7 14

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)50A Environment 40 35 62 38 39 72 36 50 23 42 39 55 32 4848 Immigration 38 27 48 49 53 58 40 45 30 32 51 49 34 5049 Taxes 33 20 42 34 37 63 42 41 26 25 36 52 31 4651B Health care 33 28 39 33 43 50 35 45 24 30 38 43 30 4147 Jobs/Economy 31 16 44 40 39 57 39 39 23 23 40 48 28 45

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)50A Environment 20 -35 0 8 25 10 52 30 67 -26 17 29 54 2451B Health care 17 -60 -6 9 46 38 35 33 64 -49 26 37 56 3348 Immigration 7 -58 -16 -9 1 17 25 28 54 -48 -4 21 46 1247 Jobs/Economy 6 -68 -25 -6 8 18 17 32 60 -58 1 17 52 1149 Taxes 6 -67 -25 -31 33 12 22 33 58 -57 1 17 50 11

Page 221

Total WHITMAN VCS

Page 222: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Brown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

better

Govt back

groundBiz back ground

Brown better

Whit man

better Boxer Fiorina DK/ Ref

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)51B Health care 26 46 5 48 8 49 8 40 12 54 7 46 3 450A Environment 25 47 9 47 11 54 10 39 13 51 10 45 4 347 Jobs/Economy 21 38 7 40 9 44 7 32 11 48 6 38 3 048 Immigration 21 38 6 39 7 42 8 32 11 45 7 38 2 249 Taxes 19 33 7 35 8 37 7 28 9 42 6 34 2 0

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)51B Health care 42 71 12 70 19 73 20 61 24 78 19 70 11 950A Environment 40 66 22 66 25 70 25 56 26 67 25 65 14 747 Jobs/Economy 38 63 16 66 20 70 18 53 23 74 17 65 7 549 Taxes 36 62 14 64 18 66 18 52 22 71 17 65 4 348 Immigration 35 58 14 60 16 63 17 49 21 65 17 60 7 6

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)47 Jobs/Economy 20 6 45 6 41 5 37 9 33 4 39 1 51 049 Taxes 19 3 45 2 41 3 36 7 33 3 38 1 48 148 Immigration 16 4 36 5 32 5 30 8 25 4 31 2 39 251B Health care 15 1 44 2 39 1 32 5 27 2 33 1 39 250A Environment 12 3 27 4 23 3 23 7 18 4 23 2 29 1

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)47 Jobs/Economy 32 13 62 14 57 12 55 18 48 10 57 6 74 349 Taxes 31 12 63 11 58 10 54 16 48 10 56 5 73 348 Immigration 28 11 55 11 51 11 47 16 41 11 49 7 62 551B Health care 25 6 62 8 53 6 47 12 40 6 49 3 61 550A Environment 20 8 39 9 36 9 35 13 30 8 35 4 47 3

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)50A Environment 40 26 39 24 39 21 40 31 44 25 40 31 39 9048 Immigration 38 30 31 28 33 26 36 34 38 24 35 34 31 8949 Taxes 33 27 23 24 25 24 27 32 30 19 27 30 23 9451B Health care 33 22 26 22 29 21 33 27 35 16 32 27 28 8547 Jobs/Economy 31 24 22 21 24 18 27 29 29 16 26 29 19 92

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)50A Environment 20 57 -17 57 -12 61 -11 44 -3 59 -10 61 -32 451B Health care 17 65 -50 63 -34 67 -27 50 -16 72 -30 67 -49 448 Immigration 7 47 -42 49 -35 52 -30 33 -20 53 -32 53 -55 147 Jobs/Economy 6 49 -46 52 -37 59 -37 35 -25 64 -39 60 -68 249 Taxes 6 50 -48 53 -40 56 -36 36 -26 61 -39 59 -68 0

Page 222

ENERGY BCKGRND ECONOMY SEN VOTETotal UNDERSTAND CLEAR PLAN

Page 223: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)51B Health care 26 65 29 23 21 2 7 12 1 56 23 5 3 1550A Environment 25 71 29 26 6 3 0 9 3 57 16 2 4 1047 Jobs/Economy 21 56 21 19 21 1 12 4 1 45 20 6 1 1448 Immigration 21 56 21 19 21 3 1 8 1 45 20 2 2 1349 Taxes 19 53 15 16 14 3 1 3 1 42 15 2 1 10

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)51B Health care 42 86 51 56 50 8 28 23 5 77 53 18 8 3950A Environment 40 90 57 39 23 18 21 17 10 79 31 19 11 2647 Jobs/Economy 38 84 55 44 41 5 21 9 3 75 43 13 5 3049 Taxes 36 80 57 44 45 8 13 8 1 73 44 10 3 3048 Immigration 35 74 48 43 45 13 14 15 2 66 44 13 5 31

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)47 Jobs/Economy 20 1 1 3 1 8 15 19 57 1 2 11 50 649 Taxes 19 0 1 0 3 10 12 13 55 1 2 11 47 648 Immigration 16 2 0 2 5 6 14 10 45 1 3 10 38 651B Health care 15 0 1 1 1 9 3 10 47 1 1 6 40 350A Environment 12 1 2 1 8 10 2 13 31 1 4 7 28 5

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)47 Jobs/Economy 32 3 7 10 10 19 30 40 79 4 10 24 72 1649 Taxes 31 3 8 8 7 17 33 36 78 4 7 24 69 1448 Immigration 28 5 7 8 12 15 28 29 67 5 10 21 60 1551B Health care 25 1 3 2 11 21 18 25 68 2 6 19 60 1150A Environment 20 1 3 8 11 15 8 21 51 2 10 12 45 10

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)50A Environment 40 9 40 53 66 68 71 62 39 19 60 69 44 6448 Immigration 38 21 45 49 43 72 58 56 30 28 46 66 35 5449 Taxes 33 17 35 48 48 76 54 56 21 22 48 65 28 5551B Health care 33 13 46 42 40 71 54 52 27 21 41 62 31 5047 Jobs/Economy 31 14 38 46 49 76 48 50 18 21 47 63 24 54

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)50A Environment 20 88 53 31 12 3 13 -4 -41 76 21 7 -34 1651B Health care 17 85 48 55 39 -13 10 -1 -63 75 48 -1 -52 2748 Immigration 7 69 41 34 33 -1 -15 -14 -65 61 34 -8 -55 1747 Jobs/Economy 6 81 48 33 31 -14 -9 -31 -76 71 32 -11 -67 1449 Taxes 6 77 49 36 38 -9 -20 -28 -76 69 37 -14 -67 16

Page 223

Total BOXER VCS

Page 224: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)51B Health care 26 1 12 10 14 20 26 63 3 8 17 53 1550A Environment 25 3 11 0 4 21 25 68 4 2 11 52 947 Jobs/Economy 21 1 5 16 13 16 18 53 1 12 14 42 1448 Immigration 21 1 10 2 13 16 19 53 2 3 14 42 1249 Taxes 19 1 4 2 8 13 13 51 1 5 11 39 9

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)51B Health care 42 5 25 37 33 49 45 83 8 31 41 72 3950A Environment 40 10 21 27 15 33 50 87 12 31 22 73 2447 Jobs/Economy 38 3 9 23 26 38 48 81 4 21 31 70 2949 Taxes 36 1 10 15 28 37 49 77 3 16 32 68 2948 Immigration 35 2 19 18 30 36 42 72 5 21 32 62 30

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)47 Jobs/Economy 20 60 27 20 1 2 1 1 55 22 1 1 649 Taxes 19 58 18 17 2 0 1 0 52 23 1 1 648 Immigration 16 47 13 19 4 2 1 1 42 18 3 1 651B Health care 15 49 13 5 0 1 2 0 43 13 1 1 350A Environment 12 33 20 3 6 0 2 1 31 13 4 1 5

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)47 Jobs/Economy 32 83 58 42 8 9 6 3 79 45 9 4 1649 Taxes 31 82 49 46 6 7 7 3 77 48 6 4 1548 Immigration 28 71 40 39 9 9 6 5 67 36 9 5 1451B Health care 25 71 33 24 6 4 4 1 65 35 5 2 1150A Environment 20 54 32 11 9 6 3 1 51 20 8 2 10

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)50A Environment 40 36 47 62 76 61 47 12 37 49 70 25 6648 Immigration 38 27 41 43 61 55 52 23 29 43 59 33 5649 Taxes 33 17 41 39 67 56 44 20 21 36 62 27 5751B Health care 33 24 42 39 61 47 51 16 27 34 54 26 5047 Jobs/Economy 31 14 33 35 66 53 46 16 17 33 60 26 55

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)50A Environment 20 -44 -11 16 5 26 47 85 -39 11 14 71 1451B Health care 17 -66 -9 12 27 45 41 82 -57 -4 35 71 2848 Immigration 7 -69 -22 -22 20 27 35 67 -62 -15 23 57 1647 Jobs/Economy 6 -80 -48 -19 18 29 42 78 -75 -24 23 67 1349 Taxes 6 -80 -39 -31 22 30 42 75 -74 -32 25 64 14

Page 224

Total FIORINA VCS

Page 225: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Support Obama

Oppose Obama

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better Favor Oppose

Impor tant

Not Impor tant

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)51B Health care 26 39 5 56 5 54 2 60 5 15 37 33 650A Environment 25 38 5 53 6 52 3 56 5 18 37 31 747 Jobs/Economy 21 33 3 51 3 45 2 56 0 14 29 26 548 Immigration 21 32 2 47 3 45 1 49 3 12 31 26 549 Taxes 19 28 3 44 3 41 1 46 1 11 26 23 4

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)51B Health care 42 61 10 82 13 78 12 84 13 32 55 52 1450A Environment 40 56 17 76 18 73 14 78 17 32 54 48 1547 Jobs/Economy 38 56 8 81 8 76 6 100 0 29 47 47 1049 Taxes 36 53 9 77 8 74 5 81 6 27 46 45 1148 Immigration 35 51 9 74 9 70 7 74 10 25 47 43 10

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)47 Jobs/Economy 20 5 48 2 51 2 58 0 63 28 13 9 5249 Taxes 19 4 49 1 49 2 57 1 57 26 14 9 5048 Immigration 16 5 39 4 40 2 46 2 45 24 9 8 4151B Health care 15 3 42 1 40 2 44 2 44 23 10 6 4250A Environment 12 4 27 1 32 2 35 1 34 15 9 7 29

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)47 Jobs/Economy 32 12 69 6 76 7 82 0 100 42 23 19 6949 Taxes 31 12 68 6 76 6 82 5 84 41 24 19 6748 Immigration 28 12 58 7 66 8 70 9 69 38 20 17 5951B Health care 25 8 61 4 62 5 65 4 68 38 17 14 5750A Environment 20 8 44 3 52 5 55 4 54 28 14 14 41

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)50A Environment 40 36 39 21 31 22 31 19 29 40 32 38 4448 Immigration 38 37 33 20 25 22 23 17 21 37 34 40 3149 Taxes 33 35 23 17 16 20 13 15 10 32 30 37 2251B Health care 33 31 29 15 24 17 23 12 19 30 28 34 2947 Jobs/Economy 31 32 23 13 16 17 12 0 0 28 30 34 21

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)50A Environment 20 47 -27 72 -34 68 -42 74 -37 4 40 35 -2651B Health care 17 53 -51 78 -49 72 -52 81 -56 -6 38 38 -4348 Immigration 7 39 -49 67 -57 62 -62 65 -60 -13 27 26 -4947 Jobs/Economy 6 44 -62 75 -68 69 -76 100 -100 -13 24 27 -5949 Taxes 6 41 -58 72 -68 67 -77 76 -78 -14 23 26 -57

Page 225

SHARE VALUES JOBS ECON PROP 23 GW IMPTTotal SENTYPE CHANGE

Page 226: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

White Black Latino Asian Men Women Men Women Men Women

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)51B Health care 26 26 44 23 15 24 28 23 28 26 2150A Environment 25 27 32 21 15 28 23 28 26 23 1847 Jobs/Economy 21 21 35 20 16 21 22 20 21 20 2148 Immigration 21 21 28 19 16 19 23 18 23 19 1949 Taxes 19 18 29 18 13 18 19 16 19 20 16

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)51B Health care 42 39 70 44 46 42 42 38 40 49 4150A Environment 40 41 62 32 35 40 40 41 41 30 3447 Jobs/Economy 38 37 56 38 29 36 39 34 39 37 3849 Taxes 36 34 51 38 32 34 38 33 35 38 3948 Immigration 35 34 44 38 31 31 38 29 37 36 39

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)47 Jobs/Economy 20 24 18 9 3 23 17 28 21 8 949 Taxes 19 23 12 9 8 21 16 25 21 11 748 Immigration 16 18 22 8 2 18 14 20 17 10 651B Health care 15 18 9 6 2 17 14 20 17 5 750A Environment 12 14 5 9 6 13 11 14 14 14 3

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)47 Jobs/Economy 32 36 22 21 13 36 28 41 32 23 2049 Taxes 31 36 15 19 13 35 27 41 32 22 1748 Immigration 28 32 31 15 8 32 24 36 29 19 1151B Health care 25 30 12 13 6 27 23 32 28 11 1450A Environment 20 23 8 17 16 23 18 26 19 21 12

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)50A Environment 40 36 29 51 49 37 42 32 40 49 5348 Immigration 38 34 25 48 61 37 38 35 34 45 5049 Taxes 33 30 34 42 55 31 35 27 32 41 4451B Health care 33 31 18 43 48 31 34 30 32 40 4547 Jobs/Economy 31 27 22 41 57 28 33 24 29 39 42

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)50A Environment 20 19 54 16 20 17 22 15 22 10 2251B Health care 17 10 58 31 41 16 19 6 13 37 2748 Immigration 7 1 14 23 22 0 14 -6 8 17 2747 Jobs/Economy 6 0 34 16 16 0 11 -7 7 14 1849 Taxes 6 -2 37 19 19 0 11 -8 3 16 22

Page 226

WHT GEN LAT GENTotal RACE GENDER

Page 227: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)51B Health care 26 16 23 29 28 30 23 2950A Environment 25 14 21 27 29 32 21 3047 Jobs/Economy 21 11 17 21 25 28 17 2648 Immigration 21 12 20 23 23 25 18 2449 Taxes 19 11 12 20 22 25 14 23

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)51B Health care 42 39 39 45 47 38 41 4350A Environment 40 30 42 41 43 42 38 4347 Jobs/Economy 38 35 37 37 41 38 36 3949 Taxes 36 37 33 34 39 36 35 3848 Immigration 35 30 35 38 37 33 34 35

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)47 Jobs/Economy 20 8 14 23 23 26 15 2549 Taxes 19 7 14 22 22 26 14 2348 Immigration 16 7 9 20 18 22 12 2051B Health care 15 6 15 12 14 25 11 1950A Environment 12 10 6 16 12 15 11 13

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)47 Jobs/Economy 32 19 23 34 35 42 26 3849 Taxes 31 14 26 35 36 38 25 3748 Immigration 28 15 24 32 30 34 24 3251B Health care 25 12 27 22 26 36 20 3050A Environment 20 14 15 22 24 23 18 24

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)50A Environment 40 56 43 36 33 35 44 3448 Immigration 38 55 41 30 32 33 42 3349 Taxes 33 49 41 30 25 27 40 2651B Health care 33 49 34 33 27 26 39 2747 Jobs/Economy 31 47 40 28 24 20 38 22

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)50A Environment 20 16 27 19 19 19 20 1951B Health care 17 27 12 23 21 3 22 1348 Immigration 7 15 11 6 7 -1 11 447 Jobs/Economy 6 16 14 3 5 -5 11 149 Taxes 6 23 7 -1 4 -2 10 1

Page 227

Total AGE

Page 228: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over 18-29 30-4950 and

over 18-4950 and

over

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)51B Health care 26 16 26 26 26 27 24 26 14 21 36 17 3650A Environment 25 18 22 28 30 30 24 30 14 15 40 14 4047 Jobs/Economy 21 10 15 20 23 25 16 24 13 16 36 14 3648 Immigration 21 14 21 20 23 22 19 22 11 18 31 14 3149 Taxes 19 11 10 15 20 23 13 21 12 16 28 14 28

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)51B Health care 42 32 36 37 47 35 36 42 48 37 45 44 4550A Environment 40 37 40 41 44 41 39 43 20 36 48 28 4847 Jobs/Economy 38 39 34 35 40 35 36 38 36 32 48 34 4849 Taxes 36 33 33 29 39 32 31 36 40 33 43 37 4348 Immigration 35 26 37 36 37 30 34 34 33 39 43 36 43

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)47 Jobs/Economy 20 12 16 29 26 28 20 27 4 9 14 6 1449 Taxes 19 10 15 28 23 28 19 25 7 6 14 7 1448 Immigration 16 12 5 23 19 24 14 21 5 8 11 6 1151B Health care 15 13 17 14 15 28 15 21 6 0 12 4 1250A Environment 12 8 9 22 13 15 14 14 10 6 11 8 11

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)47 Jobs/Economy 32 16 26 42 37 47 30 41 22 19 23 21 2349 Taxes 31 14 32 43 38 41 32 39 18 19 22 18 2248 Immigration 28 24 24 37 32 37 30 34 11 15 19 13 1951B Health care 25 16 30 26 27 40 25 33 12 10 17 11 1750A Environment 20 11 18 28 26 23 20 25 18 15 18 17 18

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)50A Environment 40 53 43 31 30 36 40 33 62 49 35 56 3548 Immigration 38 50 38 27 31 33 36 32 56 45 38 51 3849 Taxes 33 53 36 27 23 26 37 25 42 48 35 45 3551B Health care 33 52 33 37 26 25 39 26 40 54 38 46 3847 Jobs/Economy 31 45 39 23 23 18 34 21 42 49 29 45 29

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)50A Environment 20 26 22 13 19 18 19 18 2 20 30 11 3051B Health care 17 16 6 11 20 -5 10 9 37 27 28 33 2848 Immigration 7 2 13 -1 5 -8 4 -1 22 24 24 23 2447 Jobs/Economy 6 22 8 -6 3 -12 5 -4 13 12 25 13 2549 Taxes 6 18 1 -14 1 -9 -1 -3 22 14 21 18 21

Page 228

Total WHT AGE LAT AGE

Page 229: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Young Women

Young Men

Older Women

Older Men

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)51B Health care 26 24 21 30 27 21 22 27 35 21 3150A Environment 25 15 27 32 28 17 18 27 41 18 3347 Jobs/Economy 21 16 17 27 25 23 17 20 27 19 2348 Immigration 21 18 19 27 20 20 13 23 30 16 2649 Taxes 19 14 15 25 20 20 13 18 26 16 22

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)51B Health care 42 41 41 43 44 35 38 45 50 37 4750A Environment 40 36 40 44 41 32 26 49 57 29 5247 Jobs/Economy 38 37 35 41 38 35 33 39 45 33 4249 Taxes 36 36 34 40 35 32 33 37 44 32 4048 Immigration 35 36 32 40 31 33 28 37 44 30 40

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)47 Jobs/Economy 20 13 18 21 28 18 17 22 22 18 2249 Taxes 19 12 16 20 27 15 15 22 22 15 2248 Immigration 16 10 15 17 23 14 16 17 16 15 1651B Health care 15 8 14 18 20 15 15 13 18 15 1550A Environment 12 12 9 10 17 12 13 11 12 13 12

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)47 Jobs/Economy 32 21 30 35 42 28 31 35 32 30 3449 Taxes 31 21 30 33 40 26 27 36 33 26 3548 Immigration 28 21 27 28 36 24 27 29 31 26 3051B Health care 25 15 25 30 29 22 26 25 26 24 2650A Environment 20 18 17 18 29 20 21 21 19 21 20

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)50A Environment 40 46 43 38 30 48 53 30 25 51 2848 Immigration 38 43 41 33 33 43 45 34 26 44 3049 Taxes 33 43 36 27 24 42 41 27 23 41 2551B Health care 33 43 34 26 27 43 36 30 24 39 2747 Jobs/Economy 31 41 35 24 20 37 37 26 23 37 24

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)50A Environment 20 19 22 27 12 12 6 29 38 8 3251B Health care 17 26 17 13 15 13 12 20 25 13 2248 Immigration 7 16 5 12 -6 9 1 7 13 4 1047 Jobs/Economy 6 16 5 6 -4 7 2 4 13 4 849 Taxes 6 15 5 7 -5 6 6 1 11 6 5

Page 229

Total GENDER/AGE EDUCATION

Page 230: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Non College College

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)51B Health care 26 10 22 24 37 18 31 22 24 19 28 23 3250A Environment 25 13 18 31 43 17 36 21 20 19 35 16 3047 Jobs/Economy 21 20 16 19 27 17 23 21 19 18 23 20 2448 Immigration 21 13 14 23 32 14 27 19 21 14 23 17 2949 Taxes 19 12 13 17 26 13 21 17 20 15 20 16 23

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)51B Health care 42 20 31 43 51 28 47 44 43 40 45 35 5050A Environment 40 25 24 54 58 24 55 31 35 24 54 32 5047 Jobs/Economy 38 26 32 38 46 30 42 38 38 32 40 35 4349 Taxes 36 22 28 36 45 26 40 38 40 31 37 33 4348 Immigration 35 24 26 36 45 25 40 37 39 27 35 32 44

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)47 Jobs/Economy 20 32 21 25 23 24 24 8 10 19 27 17 1749 Taxes 19 27 20 24 22 22 23 8 12 18 25 13 2048 Immigration 16 23 19 18 15 20 17 7 11 17 20 14 1451B Health care 15 29 19 14 19 22 16 6 6 15 19 15 1350A Environment 12 20 16 12 12 17 12 6 15 14 12 12 11

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)47 Jobs/Economy 32 44 35 37 33 38 35 20 26 32 40 28 2849 Taxes 31 41 34 38 35 36 36 16 29 30 39 23 3148 Immigration 28 38 32 31 31 34 31 12 22 30 33 22 2751B Health care 25 39 33 25 27 35 26 12 15 26 28 23 2450A Environment 20 32 23 21 18 26 20 13 26 23 23 19 16

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)50A Environment 40 43 53 25 24 49 25 55 38 53 22 49 3448 Immigration 38 38 42 34 24 41 29 50 39 43 31 46 3049 Taxes 33 36 39 26 20 38 24 46 32 38 23 43 2751B Health care 33 40 35 32 22 37 27 43 42 34 28 42 2647 Jobs/Economy 31 29 34 25 21 32 23 43 35 37 20 37 29

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)50A Environment 20 -7 1 33 40 -2 35 18 9 2 31 14 3451B Health care 17 -19 -2 18 24 -7 21 32 28 14 17 11 2648 Immigration 7 -13 -7 5 13 -9 9 25 18 -3 2 10 1747 Jobs/Economy 6 -18 -3 1 13 -8 6 18 12 0 1 8 1549 Taxes 6 -19 -6 -2 11 -10 3 22 11 1 -2 10 12

Page 230

GENDER/EDUCTotal WHT EDUC LAT EDUC

Page 231: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)51B Health care 26 14 29 22 32 19 27 24 34 16 28 19 3250A Environment 25 17 37 16 35 15 28 21 38 14 32 19 4047 Jobs/Economy 21 16 22 19 24 16 18 24 28 14 18 20 2748 Immigration 21 11 23 16 30 12 26 20 27 7 27 18 2649 Taxes 19 10 20 16 23 11 18 20 25 5 18 18 24

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)51B Health care 42 29 45 28 49 39 43 35 51 22 43 32 5050A Environment 40 20 58 29 52 27 51 30 54 22 54 26 5747 Jobs/Economy 38 26 40 34 43 33 40 35 44 31 39 30 4449 Taxes 36 25 38 27 42 33 37 32 43 23 36 28 4348 Immigration 35 21 35 29 44 29 41 32 39 22 42 28 38

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)47 Jobs/Economy 20 26 30 23 19 13 18 23 26 20 21 28 2649 Taxes 19 25 26 20 21 11 18 20 26 20 19 24 2648 Immigration 16 21 19 20 15 12 12 18 20 18 12 21 2151B Health care 15 21 20 23 13 10 12 20 18 19 12 24 1850A Environment 12 18 12 16 12 11 11 15 12 18 12 17 12

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)47 Jobs/Economy 32 40 42 36 29 23 28 37 39 30 31 44 3949 Taxes 31 41 40 32 33 21 30 33 39 32 32 39 4048 Immigration 28 37 34 31 28 22 26 30 34 34 27 34 3451B Health care 25 38 28 33 24 19 20 30 30 35 20 36 3150A Environment 20 31 23 22 17 17 18 26 22 23 18 29 21

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)50A Environment 40 50 19 49 31 56 31 44 24 55 28 44 2248 Immigration 38 41 31 40 28 49 33 38 28 45 31 37 2849 Taxes 33 34 22 41 26 46 33 34 18 44 31 33 1851B Health care 33 33 27 40 27 42 37 35 19 43 37 33 1947 Jobs/Economy 31 34 17 31 28 44 32 28 17 39 31 27 17

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)50A Environment 20 -11 36 8 35 10 33 4 33 -1 36 -3 3651B Health care 17 -9 16 -5 24 19 23 5 21 -12 23 -4 1948 Immigration 7 -16 0 -2 16 6 15 2 5 -12 15 -6 447 Jobs/Economy 6 -14 -2 -2 14 9 12 -2 5 1 8 -14 549 Taxes 6 -17 -2 -5 9 12 7 -1 4 -9 4 -11 3

Page 231

Total WHT GEN/EDUC AGE/EDUC WHT AGE/EDUC

Page 232: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

MemberHhold

memberNo

memberTotal Union Member

Hhold member

No member

Total Union Member

No member

Total Union

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)51B Health care 26 23 30 26 25 27 18 26 24 15 28 2550A Environment 25 37 9 25 26 39 8 27 29 31 22 2147 Jobs/Economy 21 28 15 21 24 32 12 19 25 20 24 2048 Immigration 21 25 16 20 23 27 13 20 25 23 21 2049 Taxes 19 25 15 18 21 27 14 17 22 20 21 18

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)51B Health care 42 48 36 42 43 46 30 39 41 54 50 4650A Environment 40 51 27 40 41 51 26 41 41 52 38 4047 Jobs/Economy 38 46 33 37 41 50 32 35 44 38 41 3649 Taxes 36 41 34 36 39 40 32 33 38 45 41 4148 Immigration 35 40 25 35 36 41 20 33 37 38 39 34

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)47 Jobs/Economy 20 18 9 21 17 18 13 26 19 18 11 1349 Taxes 19 17 12 20 16 17 16 24 18 16 11 1148 Immigration 16 16 11 16 16 13 14 19 16 22 9 1651B Health care 15 19 8 15 14 23 12 18 19 9 8 550A Environment 12 7 15 13 11 7 19 15 13 8 9 7

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)47 Jobs/Economy 32 27 24 33 28 25 29 39 29 32 21 2649 Taxes 31 28 25 31 29 29 31 38 32 26 18 2348 Immigration 28 27 27 28 27 26 35 33 30 30 17 2251B Health care 25 29 13 25 24 30 17 30 28 27 14 1850A Environment 20 15 18 21 17 16 23 24 19 13 16 14

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)50A Environment 40 33 55 39 42 33 51 34 40 34 46 4748 Immigration 38 33 48 37 37 33 45 34 33 32 44 4449 Taxes 33 30 41 33 32 31 37 29 30 29 41 3651B Health care 33 23 51 33 33 25 53 31 31 19 37 3547 Jobs/Economy 31 26 43 30 31 25 39 26 27 30 38 38

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)50A Environment 20 36 9 19 24 34 3 17 23 39 22 2651B Health care 17 20 23 17 19 16 14 9 13 27 36 2848 Immigration 7 12 -2 7 9 14 -15 0 8 8 21 1147 Jobs/Economy 6 19 8 4 13 25 3 -4 15 6 20 1049 Taxes 6 13 9 4 11 10 1 -5 6 20 23 19

Page 232

NONWT UNIONTotal UNION WHT UNION

Page 233: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Married Single

Sep Divor ced

Wid owed

Sep Div Wid

Unmarr ied

Married Women

Unmarr ied

WomenMarried

MenUnmarr ied Men

Voted in person

Voted by mail

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)51B Health care 26 27 17 37 30 34 24 29 26 26 21 26 2850A Environment 25 27 16 39 35 38 23 26 19 28 28 27 2547 Jobs/Economy 21 21 16 31 31 31 21 22 21 21 21 21 2248 Immigration 21 21 15 29 29 29 20 23 22 20 19 22 2149 Taxes 19 18 14 28 29 29 19 19 19 17 19 19 19

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)51B Health care 42 43 42 46 40 43 43 43 41 41 45 44 4250A Environment 40 41 35 52 42 48 39 41 39 41 39 45 3847 Jobs/Economy 38 37 35 46 40 44 38 39 38 35 38 40 3649 Taxes 36 36 35 44 38 42 38 37 39 34 36 38 3648 Immigration 35 35 31 42 38 40 34 38 38 32 30 37 34

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)47 Jobs/Economy 20 24 11 18 18 18 14 21 12 27 16 19 2349 Taxes 19 23 11 15 17 16 13 21 10 25 16 17 2348 Immigration 16 19 11 12 17 14 12 17 10 20 15 14 2051B Health care 15 18 10 13 15 14 11 17 9 19 14 13 1950A Environment 12 13 10 9 17 12 11 13 10 14 12 11 14

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)47 Jobs/Economy 32 37 20 29 33 30 24 32 23 42 25 31 3649 Taxes 31 37 19 22 29 25 21 34 18 41 25 29 3548 Immigration 28 32 20 21 27 23 21 29 19 36 25 27 3151B Health care 25 29 17 18 23 20 19 27 18 31 19 22 3050A Environment 20 24 14 18 26 21 16 20 16 27 16 18 23

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)50A Environment 40 35 52 30 32 31 45 40 45 31 44 37 3948 Immigration 38 32 49 38 36 37 45 33 44 32 45 36 3549 Taxes 33 27 45 34 33 33 41 29 43 26 39 33 2951B Health care 33 28 40 36 37 36 39 29 40 28 36 33 2847 Jobs/Economy 31 26 45 25 28 26 38 29 39 22 37 29 28

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)50A Environment 20 17 21 35 16 27 23 21 24 14 23 26 1451B Health care 17 14 25 27 16 23 24 16 23 10 26 22 1248 Immigration 7 3 11 21 11 17 13 9 19 -3 5 10 247 Jobs/Economy 6 0 15 18 7 14 14 7 15 -7 13 10 -149 Taxes 6 -2 16 22 9 17 16 3 21 -7 11 9 0

Page 233

Total MARITAL MARITAL/GENDER 2008

Page 234: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Voted in person

Voted by mail A B Cell Landline Base Latino

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)51B Health care 26 27 29 0 26 28 26 26 2550A Environment 25 35 27 25 0 21 26 27 1947 Jobs/Economy 21 24 22 23 20 17 22 21 2248 Immigration 21 23 23 21 21 23 21 21 2249 Taxes 19 23 19 19 18 15 19 18 19

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)51B Health care 42 42 44 0 42 42 42 42 4450A Environment 40 51 38 40 0 43 40 43 3047 Jobs/Economy 38 42 33 38 37 39 37 37 4049 Taxes 36 41 34 38 35 32 37 35 4048 Immigration 35 37 33 34 35 36 34 34 38

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Much BetterTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)47 Jobs/Economy 20 21 27 20 20 14 21 22 1149 Taxes 19 19 27 19 19 15 19 22 948 Immigration 16 16 23 16 16 14 16 18 851B Health care 15 16 24 0 15 12 16 17 850A Environment 12 12 15 12 0 16 12 13 9

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Fiorina Total BetterTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)47 Jobs/Economy 32 33 40 31 32 27 32 34 2149 Taxes 31 31 41 29 32 25 31 34 1848 Immigration 28 29 37 27 28 25 28 31 1651B Health care 25 28 33 0 25 23 25 28 1450A Environment 20 18 26 20 0 22 20 22 15

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Both/Neither/Don't Know/RefusedTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)50A Environment 40 31 36 40 0 35 40 35 5548 Immigration 38 34 30 39 37 39 38 35 4649 Taxes 33 28 25 33 33 43 32 31 4251B Health care 33 30 23 0 33 35 33 31 4247 Jobs/Economy 31 25 27 31 31 33 30 29 39

Q47-51 Summary Senate Better Job...Boxer - FiorinaTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)50A Environment 20 33 11 20 0 22 19 21 1651B Health care 17 14 12 0 17 19 17 14 2948 Immigration 7 8 -3 7 7 12 6 3 2147 Jobs/Economy 6 10 -7 6 6 12 5 2 1949 Taxes 6 10 -6 9 3 7 5 1 22

Page 234

PHONE SAMPLETotal 2006 SPLIT

Page 235: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LIKELY

Likely Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS

Reg Rep Not ID Rep

Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Mod erate

Conser vative

Q53 Global warming Prop. 23Total answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Strongly favor 25 27 17 25 37 17 34 28 29 19 16 21 37Somewhat favor 14 13 13 16 16 14 15 15 15 20 14 14 15Somewhat oppose 12 10 13 12 9 13 10 12 12 14 11 16 7Strongly oppose 26 28 33 26 17 31 19 24 21 22 40 25 18(Don't know) 22 20 23 20 19 23 21 21 22 24 18 23 22(Refused) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2Total Favor 39 40 30 41 53 31 49 42 44 38 30 35 51Total Oppose 38 38 46 38 27 44 29 37 32 36 51 41 25Favor - Oppose 1 1 -16 3 27 -14 21 6 12 3 -21 -5 26

Q54 Importance of global warmingTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Very important 45 42 65 40 19 63 19 42 25 55 71 45 22Somewhat important 29 27 27 29 32 28 30 34 28 26 23 37 24Not too important 11 13 4 13 20 4 20 12 21 7 4 10 19Not at all important 14 18 3 17 28 4 29 12 26 11 1 8 34(Don't know) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1Very/Smwt Impt 75 69 92 69 51 91 50 76 53 81 94 82 46Not too/At all Impt 24 31 7 30 48 8 49 23 46 18 5 18 53Very/Smwt - Not/At all 50 38 85 39 3 82 0 53 7 63 89 64 -6

Q55 Trust in scientists about global warmingTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Completely 17 18 26 15 5 26 4 16 4 17 36 14 5A lot 26 26 35 26 12 33 12 32 14 33 36 30 12Moderately 28 24 27 24 33 28 31 24 27 29 21 35 26Just a little 16 17 7 18 27 8 27 15 31 13 5 13 30Not at all 11 13 3 15 20 4 22 11 22 7 2 7 25(Don't know) 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 2(Refused) 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Page 235

IDEOLOGYTotal PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS

Page 236: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated Right Wrong

Q53 Global warming Prop. 23Total answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Strongly favor 25 16 20 29 41 19 14 18 26 40 26 22 26Somewhat favor 14 14 13 16 16 16 13 15 13 16 14 18 13Somewhat oppose 12 11 14 11 8 15 12 14 14 8 12 13 12Strongly oppose 26 41 26 22 16 21 41 25 24 15 26 27 27(Don't know) 22 18 26 21 18 26 19 27 22 19 20 19 21(Refused) 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 2 1 2 1 1 1Total Favor 39 30 32 45 57 35 28 32 40 57 40 40 40Total Oppose 38 52 40 33 24 37 53 39 37 23 38 39 39Favor - Oppose 1 -22 -8 13 33 -2 -25 -7 3 34 2 1 1

Q54 Importance of global warmingTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Very important 45 72 56 35 8 42 73 54 34 10 47 61 42Somewhat important 29 23 33 36 25 36 22 33 38 24 31 31 29Not too important 11 3 5 13 24 12 3 5 15 24 10 3 12Not at all important 14 1 5 15 43 8 1 7 12 41 11 3 16(Don't know) 1 1 1 1 0 2 1 1 1 0 0 1 1Very/Smwt Impt 75 95 89 71 33 78 95 87 72 34 78 92 71Not too/At all Impt 24 5 10 28 67 20 4 12 27 65 21 7 28Very/Smwt - Not/At all 50 90 79 43 -34 58 91 75 44 -31 57 85 43

Q55 Trust in scientists about global warmingTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Completely 17 37 16 9 2 12 39 15 8 2 17 31 15A lot 26 37 36 19 6 24 35 32 20 7 31 26 25Moderately 28 19 33 38 24 31 21 34 41 26 24 24 29Just a little 16 4 10 19 34 15 3 12 17 33 14 11 17Not at all 11 1 4 12 30 14 1 5 10 29 12 8 12(Don't know) 2 1 0 2 3 3 1 1 2 2 2 0 2(Refused) 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0

Page 236

Total PTY/IDEO PTYREG/IDEO STATE DIR

Page 237: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

10 8-10 6-10 0-5 0-7 BrownWhit man Und Ref

Q53 Global warming Prop. 23Total answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Strongly favor 25 36 30 27 18 19 17 35 13Somewhat favor 14 11 13 14 16 15 13 14 22Somewhat oppose 12 7 10 12 12 14 13 12 9Strongly oppose 26 27 27 27 25 26 36 20 14(Don't know) 22 18 19 19 28 25 21 19 39(Refused) 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 3Total Favor 39 47 43 41 34 34 30 49 35Total Oppose 38 34 37 39 37 40 49 31 23Favor - Oppose 1 13 6 2 -3 -6 -19 17 12

Q54 Importance of global warmingTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Very important 45 39 43 44 50 48 61 27 52Somewhat important 29 22 25 28 33 35 31 28 31Not too important 11 13 13 11 10 9 2 20 7Not at all important 14 25 19 17 6 8 5 25 8(Don't know) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2Very/Smwt Impt 75 61 67 71 83 83 92 55 83Not too/At all Impt 24 38 32 28 16 16 7 44 15Very/Smwt - Not/At all 50 23 36 44 68 66 84 10 68

Q55 Trust in scientists about global warmingTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Completely 17 18 18 18 16 17 27 8 12A lot 26 20 23 25 28 30 38 15 23Moderately 28 21 27 27 31 29 23 30 37Just a little 16 19 17 16 13 14 7 25 16Not at all 11 19 14 12 9 8 5 19 8(Don't know) 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 4(Refused) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0

Page 237

Total ENTHUSIASM GOV VOTE

Page 238: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q53 Global warming Prop. 23Total answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Strongly favor 25 11 21 15 42 18 26 24 40 14 26 21 36 23Somewhat favor 14 10 16 21 14 19 21 16 13 12 18 20 14 19Somewhat oppose 12 14 12 15 9 9 10 19 9 13 13 9 12 11Strongly oppose 26 42 32 27 14 22 19 19 17 40 21 21 17 21(Don't know) 22 22 17 22 20 30 23 21 19 21 21 27 20 25(Refused) 1 1 0 0 1 3 0 1 2 1 1 2 2 1Total Favor 39 21 38 36 56 36 48 40 53 26 44 41 49 42Total Oppose 38 56 45 42 23 31 29 38 26 53 34 30 29 32Favor - Oppose 1 -35 -7 -6 33 5 18 2 27 -27 10 11 20 11

Q54 Importance of global warmingTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Very important 45 64 61 58 51 52 39 40 19 63 55 46 25 49Somewhat important 29 28 31 36 37 35 32 31 24 29 36 33 26 34Not too important 11 3 2 2 1 7 21 19 21 3 2 13 20 9Not at all important 14 5 6 3 8 5 8 10 35 5 5 6 29 6(Don't know) 1 0 0 1 3 2 1 1 0 0 2 1 1 1Very/Smwt Impt 75 92 92 94 88 86 71 71 43 92 91 79 51 84Not too/At all Impt 24 7 8 5 9 12 29 28 56 8 7 19 49 15Very/Smwt - Not/At all 50 85 84 88 79 74 42 42 -13 85 84 60 2 69

Q55 Trust in scientists about global warmingTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Completely 17 34 20 15 17 13 17 7 6 30 16 15 6 15A lot 26 40 37 42 19 26 25 21 9 39 33 25 12 28Moderately 28 18 27 29 40 34 30 40 29 21 33 32 32 33Just a little 16 4 10 10 11 19 18 22 26 6 10 19 25 16Not at all 11 3 6 5 10 5 10 9 26 4 7 7 22 7(Don't know) 2 1 0 0 4 2 1 1 3 1 2 2 3 2(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0

Page 238

Total BROWN VCS

Page 239: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q53 Global warming Prop. 23Total answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Strongly favor 25 41 25 30 24 27 17 21 12 37 27 22 15 24Somewhat favor 14 12 17 13 17 16 22 19 11 13 15 19 13 18Somewhat oppose 12 10 20 13 7 7 16 11 13 12 10 11 12 11Strongly oppose 26 17 19 22 31 14 23 28 40 18 26 18 36 21(Don't know) 22 18 17 22 20 34 23 20 22 18 21 28 22 26(Refused) 1 2 1 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 1 1 1Total Favor 39 53 43 43 41 43 38 40 23 51 42 41 28 41Total Oppose 38 27 39 35 38 21 39 40 53 30 36 30 49 32Favor - Oppose 1 26 3 7 4 22 -1 0 -29 21 6 11 -20 9

Q54 Importance of global warmingTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Very important 45 18 37 37 48 54 53 57 62 22 43 53 60 50Somewhat important 29 25 29 32 35 33 35 33 28 26 34 34 29 34Not too important 11 20 21 21 12 2 9 4 4 21 16 5 4 9Not at all important 14 37 11 9 3 9 3 6 6 31 6 6 6 6(Don't know) 1 0 1 1 2 3 1 0 1 1 1 2 0 2Very/Smwt Impt 75 42 67 69 84 87 87 90 90 48 76 87 90 83Not too/At all Impt 24 57 33 30 15 10 12 10 10 51 22 11 10 15Very/Smwt - Not/At all 50 -15 34 39 69 76 76 80 80 -3 54 76 80 68

Q55 Trust in scientists about global warmingTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Completely 17 5 4 23 14 16 12 18 31 5 19 14 27 16A lot 26 9 19 21 35 19 39 33 38 11 28 29 36 28Moderately 28 28 41 23 30 36 34 30 20 31 26 35 23 32Just a little 16 27 25 22 17 16 10 11 5 26 20 13 7 16Not at all 11 27 10 10 2 10 5 8 5 23 6 7 6 7(Don't know) 2 3 1 0 2 4 0 0 1 2 1 2 1 2(Refused) 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0

Page 239

Total WHITMAN VCS

Page 240: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Brown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

better

Govt back

groundBiz back ground

Brown better

Whit man

better Boxer Fiorina DK/ Ref

Q53 Global warming Prop. 23Total answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Strongly favor 25 17 37 21 34 18 34 19 32 18 33 16 38 12Somewhat favor 14 13 16 14 15 14 13 14 16 12 17 14 15 14Somewhat oppose 12 14 12 13 11 12 12 14 10 12 12 14 9 11Strongly oppose 26 35 19 32 22 35 22 33 21 37 19 35 18 13(Don't know) 22 20 15 19 17 21 17 19 20 20 18 20 17 46(Refused) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3Total Favor 39 31 53 35 49 32 47 33 48 30 50 30 54 27Total Oppose 38 49 30 45 33 47 34 47 31 49 31 49 27 24Favor - Oppose 1 -18 23 -10 16 -15 12 -14 17 -19 19 -19 26 3

Q54 Importance of global warmingTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Very important 45 60 26 60 31 64 30 56 34 64 28 64 21 43Somewhat important 29 30 26 30 26 28 28 32 26 28 31 29 28 42Not too important 11 4 19 4 17 3 18 4 18 3 17 4 21 7Not at all important 14 5 28 5 26 5 24 7 21 5 24 3 30 6(Don't know) 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 3Very/Smwt Impt 75 90 52 90 57 92 58 88 60 92 59 92 49 84Not too/At all Impt 24 9 47 9 43 8 42 11 39 8 40 7 51 13Very/Smwt - Not/At all 50 81 5 81 14 84 16 76 21 84 18 85 -2 72

Q55 Trust in scientists about global warmingTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Completely 17 25 7 26 9 26 7 23 11 27 9 26 5 18A lot 26 37 13 34 19 36 18 34 17 38 15 38 11 20Moderately 28 26 30 26 29 24 32 27 29 23 32 26 31 29Just a little 16 8 25 8 22 8 23 9 23 7 23 7 27 20Not at all 11 4 22 5 18 5 18 6 17 4 18 3 23 7(Don't know) 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 5(Refused) 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0

Page 240

ENERGY BCKGRND ECONOMY SEN VOTETotal UNDERSTAND CLEAR PLAN

Page 241: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q53 Global warming Prop. 23Total answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Strongly favor 25 12 13 19 34 16 23 23 41 12 26 19 38 23Somewhat favor 14 9 22 17 17 10 18 26 13 13 17 14 15 16Somewhat oppose 12 14 17 17 9 9 12 13 8 15 13 11 9 12Strongly oppose 26 45 25 26 23 20 22 15 17 39 25 21 16 23(Don't know) 22 19 24 22 17 41 24 22 20 21 20 33 20 25(Refused) 1 1 0 0 0 4 1 1 2 1 0 3 2 1Total Favor 39 21 35 35 51 27 41 49 54 25 43 33 53 39Total Oppose 38 58 42 42 32 29 34 28 24 54 38 31 25 35Favor - Oppose 1 -37 -7 -7 18 -3 7 22 30 -28 5 2 28 4

Q54 Importance of global warmingTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Very important 45 69 52 57 70 51 49 32 14 64 63 50 17 58Somewhat important 29 26 34 36 21 37 36 37 26 29 29 37 28 32Not too important 11 2 8 4 5 2 11 21 22 4 5 7 22 5Not at all important 14 2 6 2 4 6 3 10 37 3 3 4 32 3(Don't know) 1 1 0 1 1 4 1 1 1 0 1 2 1 1Very/Smwt Impt 75 95 86 93 91 88 85 68 40 93 92 87 45 90Not too/At all Impt 24 4 14 6 9 8 14 31 60 7 7 11 54 9Very/Smwt - Not/At all 50 91 73 87 82 80 71 38 -20 86 84 76 -9 81

Q55 Trust in scientists about global warmingTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Completely 17 36 16 13 19 25 12 5 4 30 16 19 4 17A lot 26 42 35 41 30 19 17 26 7 40 36 18 11 28Moderately 28 16 36 34 35 27 54 29 28 22 35 39 28 37Just a little 16 4 8 8 13 22 11 24 29 5 10 17 28 13Not at all 11 2 6 3 2 4 5 12 29 3 2 4 26 3(Don't know) 2 1 0 0 1 4 0 5 3 1 0 2 3 1(Refused) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0

Page 241

Total BOXER VCS

Page 242: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Q53 Global warming Prop. 23Total answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Strongly favor 25 42 29 25 25 19 12 13 40 26 22 13 23Somewhat favor 14 13 31 17 15 17 22 9 15 15 16 13 15Somewhat oppose 12 8 10 17 8 16 18 13 8 13 11 15 12Strongly oppose 26 17 15 25 19 23 24 43 17 28 21 37 22(Don't know) 22 18 15 14 32 26 24 20 18 16 29 21 27(Refused) 1 2 1 1 1 0 0 2 2 1 1 1 1Total Favor 39 55 59 42 40 35 34 22 56 41 38 26 39Total Oppose 38 25 25 43 27 38 42 57 25 42 32 52 34Favor - Oppose 1 30 35 0 13 -3 -8 -35 31 0 6 -26 4

Q54 Importance of global warmingTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Very important 45 13 31 50 60 56 49 68 16 49 58 62 56Somewhat important 29 26 33 31 28 36 37 26 27 33 32 30 32Not too important 11 22 23 15 4 6 8 3 22 11 5 5 6Not at all important 14 38 13 4 6 2 6 3 34 5 4 4 4(Don't know) 1 1 0 1 2 1 0 1 0 2 2 0 2Very/Smwt Impt 75 39 64 80 88 91 86 94 43 83 89 91 88Not too/At all Impt 24 60 36 19 10 8 14 6 56 16 9 8 10Very/Smwt - Not/At all 50 -21 29 61 78 84 73 88 -13 67 80 83 78

Q55 Trust in scientists about global warmingTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Completely 17 4 1 14 18 14 16 34 3 16 17 29 17A lot 26 7 24 16 25 40 31 41 10 18 31 38 29Moderately 28 28 36 51 33 34 33 17 29 44 34 22 36Just a little 16 30 25 12 17 7 11 4 29 15 13 6 13Not at all 11 28 10 7 3 4 7 3 26 7 4 4 4(Don't know) 2 3 3 0 3 0 1 1 3 0 2 1 1(Refused) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0

Page 242

Total FIORINA VCS

Page 243: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Support Obama

Oppose Obama

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better Favor Oppose

Impor tant

Not Impor tant

Q53 Global warming Prop. 23Total answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Strongly favor 25 18 39 18 38 15 41 17 39 63 0 19 43Somewhat favor 14 14 13 14 13 14 13 14 13 37 0 15 12Somewhat oppose 12 13 10 14 10 15 10 13 11 0 31 13 7Strongly oppose 26 31 20 33 19 36 18 35 18 0 69 29 19(Don't know) 22 23 16 21 19 18 18 20 18 0 0 22 18(Refused) 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 1 1Total Favor 39 32 52 32 51 30 54 30 52 100 0 34 55Total Oppose 38 44 31 47 29 51 27 48 28 0 100 42 26Favor - Oppose 1 -12 21 -15 22 -22 26 -18 24 100 -100 -8 29

Q54 Importance of global warmingTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Very important 45 61 16 68 22 65 20 66 18 36 57 61 0Somewhat important 29 29 26 25 28 27 26 27 28 29 25 39 0Not too important 11 5 22 3 19 4 19 3 21 15 8 0 44Not at all important 14 4 34 3 31 3 34 3 33 20 9 0 56(Don't know) 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0Very/Smwt Impt 75 90 43 93 50 92 46 93 46 65 83 100 0Not too/At all Impt 24 9 57 6 50 7 53 7 53 35 17 0 100Very/Smwt - Not/At all 50 81 -14 87 0 85 -7 86 -8 30 66 100 -100

Q55 Trust in scientists about global warmingTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Completely 17 25 3 29 6 28 4 29 5 14 22 22 2A lot 26 35 11 38 12 39 12 38 12 19 34 33 5Moderately 28 27 28 23 31 23 29 23 31 28 24 32 16Just a little 16 8 29 6 25 7 26 6 26 23 10 10 34Not at all 11 4 26 4 23 2 26 3 24 15 10 2 39(Don't know) 2 1 2 1 3 1 2 1 3 2 0 1 3(Refused) 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1

Page 243

SHARE VALUES JOBS ECON PROP 23 GW IMPTTotal SENTYPE CHANGE

Page 244: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

White Black Latino Asian Men Women Men Women Men Women

Q53 Global warming Prop. 23Total answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Strongly favor 25 26 30 17 22 29 20 31 21 24 11Somewhat favor 14 13 8 18 26 15 14 13 12 20 17Somewhat oppose 12 12 6 15 16 11 13 11 12 9 19Strongly oppose 26 29 14 22 19 29 24 29 28 28 17(Don't know) 22 20 39 28 16 15 28 15 24 18 35(Refused) 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Total Favor 39 39 38 35 47 44 34 44 34 44 29Total Oppose 38 41 20 36 36 40 37 40 41 37 36Favor - Oppose 1 -2 18 -1 12 4 -3 3 -7 7 -7

Q54 Importance of global warmingTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Very important 45 40 45 59 57 40 50 35 45 58 60Somewhat important 29 31 34 26 35 30 29 32 31 21 30Not too important 11 13 8 8 2 13 9 15 10 12 6Not at all important 14 16 12 6 4 17 11 18 13 9 3(Don't know) 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 1Very/Smwt Impt 75 71 79 85 92 70 79 66 76 79 90Not too/At all Impt 24 28 21 14 6 30 20 33 24 21 9Very/Smwt - Not/At all 50 43 59 71 85 40 59 33 52 58 81

Q55 Trust in scientists about global warmingTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Completely 17 18 20 14 23 17 18 17 18 14 14A lot 26 27 19 29 29 22 30 21 32 27 30Moderately 28 26 33 32 26 27 29 26 27 27 36Just a little 16 16 10 16 17 19 12 19 13 20 13Not at all 11 12 17 7 2 14 9 15 10 11 4(Don't know) 2 1 1 2 3 2 1 1 1 2 2(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

Page 244

WHT GEN LAT GENTotal RACE GENDER

Page 245: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over

Q53 Global warming Prop. 23Total answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Strongly favor 25 18 25 29 28 21 24 25Somewhat favor 14 23 19 13 12 9 18 11Somewhat oppose 12 19 8 12 11 9 13 10Strongly oppose 26 20 26 28 29 28 25 29(Don't know) 22 20 22 16 18 30 19 23(Refused) 1 0 0 2 1 3 1 2Total Favor 39 41 44 42 40 31 42 36Total Oppose 38 39 33 40 40 36 38 39Favor - Oppose 1 2 11 2 0 -5 5 -2

Q54 Importance of global warmingTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Very important 45 52 52 42 45 41 48 43Somewhat important 29 32 30 34 26 26 32 26Not too important 11 9 12 10 10 13 10 11Not at all important 14 7 7 14 18 18 9 18(Don't know) 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 1Very/Smwt Impt 75 84 81 76 71 66 80 69Not too/At all Impt 24 16 19 24 28 32 20 30Very/Smwt - Not/At all 50 68 63 52 43 35 60 39

Q55 Trust in scientists about global warmingTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Completely 17 18 26 13 15 17 19 16A lot 26 30 25 29 27 21 28 24Moderately 28 32 25 29 27 25 29 26Just a little 16 13 18 17 13 17 16 15Not at all 11 6 5 8 17 17 6 17(Don't know) 2 1 1 1 2 3 1 2(Refused) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0

Page 245

Total AGE

Page 246: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over 18-29 30-4950 and

over 18-4950 and

over

Q53 Global warming Prop. 23Total answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Strongly favor 25 23 25 29 28 23 27 26 12 17 25 14 25Somewhat favor 14 20 15 14 12 9 16 11 25 13 16 20 16Somewhat oppose 12 19 6 14 12 9 13 11 20 13 10 17 10Strongly oppose 26 19 35 27 31 28 28 30 20 24 20 22 20(Don't know) 22 19 17 15 16 28 17 21 23 31 29 27 29(Refused) 1 0 0 1 0 3 0 2 0 2 0 1 0Total Favor 39 43 41 43 40 32 42 36 37 30 40 34 40Total Oppose 38 38 42 41 43 37 40 41 39 37 30 38 30Favor - Oppose 1 5 -1 2 -3 -6 2 -4 -2 -7 10 -4 10

Q54 Importance of global warmingTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Very important 45 46 48 30 42 40 40 41 53 63 61 58 61Somewhat important 29 32 29 41 28 26 35 27 32 26 18 30 18Not too important 11 11 17 12 11 14 13 12 10 6 9 8 9Not at all important 14 12 6 16 19 18 12 19 3 4 12 4 12(Don't know) 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 0 1 1 1Very/Smwt Impt 75 78 76 71 70 66 75 68 86 90 79 87 79Not too/At all Impt 24 22 24 28 30 32 25 31 13 10 20 12 20Very/Smwt - Not/At all 50 56 53 43 40 34 50 38 72 79 59 75 59

Q55 Trust in scientists about global warmingTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Completely 17 29 25 11 15 17 20 16 9 19 15 14 15A lot 26 29 25 31 29 21 29 25 29 30 27 29 27Moderately 28 22 25 31 25 26 27 26 39 24 30 32 30Just a little 16 12 18 17 13 18 16 15 14 22 12 17 12Not at all 11 7 5 7 17 16 6 17 6 6 11 6 11(Don't know) 2 0 1 2 0 2 1 1 3 0 4 1 4(Refused) 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1

Page 246

Total WHT AGE LAT AGE

Page 247: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Young Women

Young Men

Older Women

Older Men

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Q53 Global warming Prop. 23Total answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Strongly favor 25 21 27 19 32 25 27 24 21 26 23Somewhat favor 14 16 21 12 10 16 16 13 11 16 12Somewhat oppose 12 16 10 10 10 10 10 17 11 10 14Strongly oppose 26 22 28 27 30 21 20 28 38 21 32(Don't know) 22 24 13 30 16 25 26 18 17 25 18(Refused) 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1Total Favor 39 37 48 32 42 42 43 37 33 43 35Total Oppose 38 37 38 37 40 31 30 45 49 31 46Favor - Oppose 1 0 10 -6 1 11 13 -8 -16 12 -11

Q54 Importance of global warmingTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Very important 45 53 43 48 38 55 42 42 47 47 44Somewhat important 29 33 30 24 28 21 32 32 29 28 31Not too important 11 8 13 10 13 10 12 12 9 11 10Not at all important 14 5 13 16 21 12 14 13 15 13 14(Don't know) 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Very/Smwt Impt 75 86 73 72 66 77 74 74 76 75 75Not too/At all Impt 24 13 27 27 33 23 25 25 24 24 25Very/Smwt - Not/At all 50 73 47 45 33 54 49 49 52 51 50

Q55 Trust in scientists about global warmingTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Completely 17 18 19 17 14 12 12 20 25 12 22A lot 26 35 21 25 23 19 26 30 28 23 29Moderately 28 29 29 29 24 31 33 25 22 32 24Just a little 16 10 22 14 16 22 14 13 15 17 14Not at all 11 5 8 14 20 14 14 10 7 14 9(Don't know) 2 2 1 1 3 1 2 1 2 2 1(Refused) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

Page 247

Total GENDER/AGE EDUCATION

Page 248: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Non College College

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Q53 Global warming Prop. 23Total answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Strongly favor 25 27 33 22 22 31 22 17 17 34 25 19 21Somewhat favor 14 11 18 11 9 16 10 19 16 18 12 15 12Somewhat oppose 12 7 8 18 10 8 15 16 10 8 14 12 14Strongly oppose 26 27 19 29 41 21 34 18 32 24 33 18 32(Don't know) 22 26 22 18 16 23 17 29 24 14 15 35 20(Refused) 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1Total Favor 39 38 50 34 31 46 33 36 34 52 37 34 33Total Oppose 38 34 27 48 51 29 49 35 42 32 47 29 46Favor - Oppose 1 4 23 -14 -20 17 -17 1 -8 20 -10 5 -12

Q54 Importance of global warmingTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Very important 45 40 32 41 49 34 45 66 39 44 37 50 51Somewhat important 29 24 36 31 29 32 30 20 43 25 33 30 28Not too important 11 16 14 13 9 15 11 9 8 15 11 8 10Not at all important 14 21 17 15 13 18 14 4 11 16 18 11 10(Don't know) 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1Very/Smwt Impt 75 63 68 72 78 67 75 86 82 69 70 80 79Not too/At all Impt 24 36 31 27 22 33 25 13 18 31 29 19 20Very/Smwt - Not/At all 50 27 37 44 56 34 50 73 63 38 41 61 59

Q55 Trust in scientists about global warmingTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Completely 17 12 10 21 25 11 23 13 17 11 22 13 23A lot 26 14 23 32 30 20 31 31 23 22 22 25 36Moderately 28 28 34 23 21 32 22 32 31 30 25 34 23Just a little 16 25 16 13 14 19 14 15 18 20 18 14 11Not at all 11 20 16 10 6 17 8 7 9 15 12 12 6(Don't know) 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 1(Refused) 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1

Page 248

GENDER/EDUCTotal WHT EDUC LAT EDUC

Page 249: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Q53 Global warming Prop. 23Total answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Strongly favor 25 40 25 23 20 27 22 27 24 36 20 28 24Somewhat favor 14 18 10 14 11 20 16 14 9 20 13 14 8Somewhat oppose 12 6 15 10 15 11 15 8 12 7 17 9 12Strongly oppose 26 23 34 20 35 19 31 22 35 21 33 21 36(Don't know) 22 13 16 32 18 22 16 28 19 17 17 27 17(Refused) 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 2 2Total Favor 39 58 34 37 31 46 38 40 33 56 33 42 32Total Oppose 38 29 48 30 50 31 46 30 47 28 50 30 49Favor - Oppose 1 29 -14 7 -19 16 -8 10 -14 28 -16 11 -17

Q54 Importance of global warmingTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Very important 45 29 39 39 50 53 43 41 46 35 43 34 47Somewhat important 29 31 32 33 28 28 37 28 24 34 36 31 24Not too important 11 19 12 11 10 12 9 10 13 18 10 13 12Not at all important 14 20 17 16 11 8 11 19 17 13 11 21 16(Don't know) 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1Very/Smwt Impt 75 60 71 72 78 80 80 69 70 69 78 65 71Not too/At all Impt 24 39 29 27 21 19 20 30 30 31 21 34 28Very/Smwt - Not/At all 50 21 41 45 57 61 60 39 40 38 57 31 43

Q55 Trust in scientists about global warmingTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Completely 17 8 24 13 22 11 28 14 17 7 30 13 18A lot 26 19 23 22 39 28 29 18 30 24 31 17 32Moderately 28 30 23 34 21 34 23 30 23 35 21 29 23Just a little 16 22 17 16 10 18 14 15 15 23 12 16 15Not at all 11 20 11 14 6 8 5 21 13 9 4 24 12(Don't know) 2 0 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1(Refused) 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0

Page 249

Total WHT GEN/EDUC AGE/EDUC WHT AGE/EDUC

Page 250: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

MemberHhold

memberNo

memberTotal Union Member

Hhold member

No member

Total Union Member

No member

Total Union

Q53 Global warming Prop. 23Total answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Strongly favor 25 21 19 26 21 21 22 27 22 21 23 19Somewhat favor 14 15 17 14 15 12 11 13 11 19 16 23Somewhat oppose 12 9 9 13 10 13 8 12 12 2 14 7Strongly oppose 26 35 14 26 28 39 15 29 31 26 22 21(Don't know) 22 19 38 20 25 14 41 18 23 30 24 28(Refused) 1 1 4 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 3Total Favor 39 35 35 40 36 33 33 40 33 40 39 41Total Oppose 38 45 24 39 38 52 24 40 43 28 36 28Favor - Oppose 1 -9 12 1 -2 -19 9 -1 -10 12 3 13

Q54 Importance of global warmingTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Very important 45 51 36 46 46 52 24 39 43 50 58 51Somewhat important 29 28 36 29 30 28 37 32 29 26 24 31Not too important 11 7 12 11 9 6 17 13 11 7 7 7Not at all important 14 13 15 14 14 12 22 16 15 15 10 10(Don't know) 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 2 1 1Very/Smwt Impt 75 79 73 75 76 80 62 71 72 76 82 82Not too/At all Impt 24 19 27 25 23 18 38 29 26 22 17 17Very/Smwt - Not/At all 50 59 46 50 53 62 24 42 46 54 65 65

Q55 Trust in scientists about global warmingTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Completely 17 23 19 16 19 27 19 16 22 13 17 13A lot 26 22 33 27 26 22 31 27 25 22 25 28Moderately 28 29 24 27 28 29 25 26 28 28 31 28Just a little 16 16 15 15 17 14 20 16 17 21 15 15Not at all 11 8 7 13 8 7 5 14 7 9 10 10(Don't know) 2 2 2 1 2 1 0 1 0 6 2 5(Refused) 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0

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NONWT UNIONTotal UNION WHT UNION

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Married Single

Sep Divor ced

Wid owed

Sep Div Wid

Unmarr ied

Married Women

Unmarr ied

WomenMarried

MenUnmarr ied Men

Voted in person

Voted by mail

Q53 Global warming Prop. 23Total answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Strongly favor 25 28 22 17 16 17 20 22 17 33 24 22 27Somewhat favor 14 14 19 13 6 10 15 15 13 12 19 15 13Somewhat oppose 12 11 14 11 11 11 13 11 15 11 11 13 11Strongly oppose 26 25 27 33 27 31 28 25 23 26 34 29 24(Don't know) 22 21 19 25 36 29 22 25 31 17 12 21 23(Refused) 1 1 0 1 4 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 2Total Favor 39 41 40 30 22 27 35 38 29 45 43 37 40Total Oppose 38 36 41 44 38 42 41 36 39 37 44 41 35Favor - Oppose 1 5 -1 -14 -16 -15 -6 2 -9 8 -1 -5 4

Q54 Importance of global warmingTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Very important 45 40 52 60 48 55 53 47 55 34 51 46 41Somewhat important 29 32 28 23 23 23 26 31 27 32 25 29 32Not too important 11 12 11 7 7 7 9 10 7 13 12 10 12Not at all important 14 16 9 11 18 13 10 12 9 20 12 14 14(Don't know) 1 0 1 0 5 2 1 0 2 1 0 1 1Very/Smwt Impt 75 72 79 83 71 78 79 77 82 66 75 75 73Not too/At all Impt 24 28 20 17 24 20 20 22 16 34 24 24 26Very/Smwt - Not/At all 50 44 60 65 46 58 59 55 65 32 51 51 46

Q55 Trust in scientists about global warmingTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Completely 17 17 17 17 19 18 17 19 16 15 19 18 17A lot 26 24 32 29 20 26 30 29 32 19 27 26 25Moderately 28 27 27 33 29 31 29 27 31 28 25 29 28Just a little 16 18 13 9 14 11 12 15 9 21 16 14 17Not at all 11 12 9 11 15 13 10 9 9 15 12 12 12(Don't know) 2 2 2 1 3 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 2(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

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Total MARITAL MARITAL/GENDER 2008

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Voted in person

Voted by mail A B Cell Landline Base Latino

Q53 Global warming Prop. 23Total answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Strongly favor 25 23 28 25 23 28 24 26 19Somewhat favor 14 13 12 14 15 22 13 14 17Somewhat oppose 12 12 8 12 12 15 11 12 12Strongly oppose 26 28 28 26 27 25 27 28 22(Don't know) 22 23 21 21 22 10 23 19 30(Refused) 1 1 2 1 1 0 1 1 1Total Favor 39 36 41 39 38 50 37 40 35Total Oppose 38 40 36 38 38 40 38 39 34Favor - Oppose 1 -4 5 1 0 9 -1 1 1

Q54 Importance of global warmingTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Very important 45 46 39 47 44 44 46 41 60Somewhat important 29 26 29 29 30 34 29 31 24Not too important 11 10 15 10 12 14 10 12 7Not at all important 14 17 16 14 13 8 14 15 8(Don't know) 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1Very/Smwt Impt 75 72 68 75 74 78 74 72 84Not too/At all Impt 24 27 31 24 25 22 25 27 15Very/Smwt - Not/At all 50 45 37 51 50 55 50 45 69

Q55 Trust in scientists about global warmingTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Completely 17 18 16 17 17 30 15 18 14A lot 26 30 23 27 26 22 27 26 27Moderately 28 24 26 27 29 26 28 27 32Just a little 16 14 19 16 15 15 16 15 16Not at all 11 12 13 11 11 6 12 12 9(Don't know) 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 2(Refused) 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Page 252

PHONE SAMPLETotal 2006 SPLIT

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LIKELY

Likely Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS

Reg Rep Not ID Rep

Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Mod erate

Conser vative

GenderTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Male 47 47 43 52 50 43 49 49 48 45 47 47 47Female 53 53 57 48 50 57 51 51 52 55 53 53 53

White genderTotal answering (1012) (618) (402) (297) (311) (415) (374) (186) (101) (83) (268) (411) (315)Male 47 48 43 52 49 45 49 47 48 49 46 48 47Female 53 52 57 48 51 55 51 53 52 51 54 52 53

Latino genderTotal answering (287) (122) (154) (82) (44) (165) (64) (49) (33) (37) (86) (103) (84)Male 44 44 40 51 56 41 48 47 47 41 49 36 50Female 56 56 60 49 44 59 52 53 53 59 51 64 50

AgeTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)18-24 10 4 12 13 4 12 5 16 7 14 15 12 425-29 7 3 6 9 5 5 3 16 4 9 9 7 330-34 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 10 8 3 7 7 535-39 8 7 12 5 5 11 6 7 7 6 11 9 540-44 7 7 7 4 11 7 9 5 3 4 9 6 945-49 11 11 9 11 13 9 12 12 12 10 6 10 1650-54 8 10 8 8 10 8 10 7 7 7 6 9 1055-59 9 11 10 8 10 10 10 7 9 10 9 10 960-64 9 11 9 10 9 11 10 5 12 13 10 9 9Over 64 19 25 18 18 22 20 24 10 24 19 16 17 25(No answer) 4 4 3 6 4 3 5 4 7 5 2 4 518-29 17 8 18 22 9 17 8 31 11 23 24 19 730-39 15 14 19 13 10 16 11 17 15 10 18 16 1040-49 18 18 16 16 24 16 21 18 15 14 15 16 2550-64 27 31 27 26 30 28 30 19 28 29 25 28 28Over 64 19 25 18 18 22 20 24 10 24 19 16 17 2518-49 50 40 53 50 44 48 41 67 41 47 57 51 4250 and over 46 56 44 44 52 48 54 29 53 48 41 44 54

White AgeTotal answering (1012) (618) (402) (297) (311) (415) (374) (186) (101) (83) (268) (411) (315)18-29 10 4 9 17 6 8 3 27 0 14 14 14 330-39 14 12 19 12 9 15 12 13 18 4 17 15 840-49 18 18 16 14 23 15 20 20 12 15 16 15 2350-64 31 33 31 29 33 33 33 22 32 38 30 32 31Over 64 23 29 22 22 25 25 28 14 32 24 20 20 3018-49 42 34 44 43 38 38 35 60 29 33 47 44 3450 and over 54 62 54 51 58 58 60 36 64 62 50 51 62

Latino AgeTotal answering (287) (122) (154) (82) (44) (165) (64) (49) (33) (37) (86) (103) (84)18-29 39 29 38 46 31 39 35 46 44 47 57 34 2830-39 17 20 17 18 15 15 8 32 0 14 13 19 1640-49 15 14 14 13 24 15 23 6 25 14 10 16 2250-64 17 22 19 13 18 17 19 12 17 12 12 21 17Over 64 10 14 10 10 11 12 14 2 13 11 7 9 1518-49 72 63 69 77 69 70 66 84 69 76 80 69 6650 and over 27 36 29 22 29 28 33 14 30 23 20 29 31

Page 253

IDEOLOGYTotal PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated Right Wrong

GenderTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Male 47 46 41 52 48 55 44 42 49 50 51 46 48Female 53 54 59 48 52 45 56 58 51 50 49 54 52

White genderTotal answering (1012) (257) (250) (138) (267) (101) (197) (207) (141) (229) (239) (73) (866)Male 47 46 39 54 48 60 44 44 51 47 51 58 47Female 53 54 61 46 52 40 56 56 49 53 49 42 53

Latino genderTotal answering (287) (74) (110) (31) (31) (41) (61) (94) (26) (34) (72) (50) (203)Male 44 48 37 49 57 43 46 36 40 59 47 35 48Female 56 52 63 51 43 57 54 64 60 41 53 65 52

AgeTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)18-24 10 15 14 9 2 10 17 7 6 3 16 22 925-29 7 9 6 9 4 6 4 5 4 3 13 8 530-34 7 7 7 6 5 9 5 4 8 4 11 8 735-39 8 12 10 6 3 10 14 9 7 3 8 11 840-44 7 8 6 8 9 5 9 6 6 11 5 3 845-49 11 6 11 12 14 10 6 11 13 13 10 8 1150-54 8 6 8 10 10 8 5 9 8 11 8 8 855-59 9 9 10 9 10 6 10 10 9 11 6 7 1060-64 9 10 8 10 11 9 10 11 14 9 6 7 10Over 64 19 16 17 17 27 17 18 22 20 28 11 15 20(No answer) 4 1 4 4 4 9 1 5 5 4 5 2 418-29 17 24 19 18 6 16 21 13 10 5 29 30 1430-39 15 19 16 12 8 19 19 13 15 8 19 19 1540-49 18 14 17 21 24 15 16 17 19 24 16 12 1950-64 27 25 26 30 31 24 25 30 31 30 21 21 28Over 64 19 16 17 17 27 17 18 22 20 28 11 15 2018-49 50 58 53 50 38 50 55 43 44 37 64 61 4850 and over 46 41 44 46 58 41 43 52 51 58 32 37 48

White AgeTotal answering (1012) (257) (250) (138) (267) (101) (197) (207) (141) (229) (239) (73) (866)18-29 10 15 13 13 4 7 12 5 4 3 24 23 830-39 14 18 17 10 8 16 18 13 16 8 14 22 1340-49 18 16 13 17 24 15 16 13 16 23 19 6 1950-64 31 29 32 36 31 29 29 37 37 31 24 26 32Over 64 23 20 21 21 30 23 23 26 22 31 15 22 2418-49 42 49 43 40 36 39 47 31 36 34 57 50 4050 and over 54 49 53 56 61 52 52 63 59 62 39 48 56

Latino AgeTotal answering (287) (74) (110) (31) (31) (41) (61) (94) (26) (34) (72) (50) (203)18-29 39 60 31 38 33 30 54 32 38 26 44 52 3630-39 17 13 18 3 17 31 13 14 0 15 30 6 1940-49 15 8 19 27 12 15 10 20 26 23 6 13 1650-64 17 11 19 21 19 14 13 19 21 19 13 17 17Over 64 10 8 11 9 18 6 9 13 14 15 3 10 1018-49 72 81 67 69 62 77 77 66 64 65 79 71 7150 and over 27 19 30 30 37 20 22 32 35 34 17 26 28

Page 254

Total PTY/IDEO PTYREG/IDEO STATE DIR

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

10 8-10 6-10 0-5 0-7 BrownWhit man Und Ref

GenderTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Male 47 49 50 50 41 44 45 49 42Female 53 51 50 50 59 56 55 51 58

White genderTotal answering (1012) (340) (527) (729) (279) (481) (461) (450) (77)Male 47 49 49 49 42 45 46 48 47Female 53 51 51 51 58 55 54 52 53

Latino genderTotal answering (287) (66) (145) (208) (77) (140) (146) (93) (45)Male 44 48 49 49 32 39 43 49 36Female 56 52 51 51 68 61 57 51 64

AgeTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)18-24 10 2 7 10 12 15 11 9 925-29 7 2 4 6 8 10 5 8 930-34 7 4 5 7 6 9 6 6 835-39 8 5 7 7 10 10 10 6 1140-44 7 8 8 7 8 7 8 7 845-49 11 13 11 11 10 10 8 14 1050-54 8 11 10 8 8 7 8 9 755-59 9 12 10 9 10 9 10 9 760-64 9 11 11 10 8 8 12 8 4Over 64 19 27 24 20 15 13 18 20 18(No answer) 4 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 818-29 17 4 10 16 20 25 17 17 1830-39 15 9 12 14 17 18 16 12 1940-49 18 21 19 18 18 17 16 21 1850-64 27 34 30 27 27 24 29 27 19Over 64 19 27 24 20 15 13 18 20 1818-49 50 34 41 49 54 60 49 50 5550 and over 46 61 54 47 42 37 47 47 36

White AgeTotal answering (1012) (340) (527) (729) (279) (481) (461) (450) (77)18-29 10 2 4 10 12 18 9 12 630-39 14 8 10 13 17 18 14 11 2140-49 18 20 19 18 16 16 17 19 1850-64 31 35 33 30 33 29 34 30 21Over 64 23 30 29 25 19 17 21 25 2818-49 42 30 33 41 45 51 40 42 4550 and over 54 65 62 55 52 46 56 54 48

Latino AgeTotal answering (287) (66) (145) (208) (77) (140) (146) (93) (45)18-29 39 17 33 37 47 47 38 41 3930-39 17 15 13 18 15 21 17 15 1940-49 15 17 13 14 19 18 14 16 1850-64 17 28 24 18 13 9 19 15 13Over 64 10 20 14 12 4 5 11 11 618-49 72 49 59 68 81 85 70 72 7650 and over 27 48 39 30 17 14 29 25 20

Page 255

Total ENTHUSIASM GOV VOTE

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

GenderTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Male 47 42 50 43 58 50 50 41 50 44 49 50 48 50Female 53 58 50 57 42 50 50 59 50 56 51 50 52 50

White genderTotal answering (1012) (295) (83) (54) (29) (73) (70) (92) (317) (378) (83) (142) (409) (226)Male 47 43 56 39 59 55 55 40 48 46 46 55 46 52Female 53 57 44 61 41 45 45 60 52 54 54 45 54 48

Latino genderTotal answering (287) (56) (43) (26) (21) (37) (32) (37) (35) (99) (47) (69) (72) (116)Male 44 35 46 50 51 50 36 39 56 40 50 43 47 46Female 56 65 54 50 49 50 64 61 44 60 50 57 53 54

AgeTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)18-24 10 6 16 20 21 13 12 20 3 9 21 12 8 1525-29 7 4 8 7 6 14 16 11 2 5 6 14 5 1130-34 7 3 11 8 17 10 11 6 5 5 12 10 5 1135-39 8 9 13 8 13 7 13 7 5 10 10 10 6 1040-44 7 8 10 6 4 6 11 6 7 8 5 9 7 745-49 11 9 5 13 6 14 6 9 15 8 10 10 14 1050-54 8 8 7 7 7 5 6 10 10 8 7 6 10 655-59 9 12 8 7 3 10 6 7 10 11 5 8 9 760-64 9 14 9 9 11 3 2 8 10 12 10 2 10 5Over 64 19 23 11 11 12 14 11 11 28 20 12 13 23 13(No answer) 4 4 3 2 1 5 5 4 4 4 1 5 4 418-29 17 10 23 27 27 26 27 32 5 14 27 27 12 2730-39 15 11 24 16 30 16 24 12 10 15 22 20 11 2140-49 18 16 15 20 10 20 17 15 22 16 16 19 20 1850-64 27 34 24 24 20 18 15 26 30 32 22 16 29 19Over 64 19 23 11 11 12 14 11 11 28 20 12 13 23 1318-49 50 38 62 63 67 63 69 59 38 45 65 65 44 6550 and over 46 57 35 35 32 32 26 37 58 51 34 30 52 31

White AgeTotal answering (1012) (295) (83) (54) (29) (73) (70) (92) (317) (378) (83) (142) (409) (226)18-29 10 7 11 14 14 18 20 28 3 8 14 19 9 1730-39 14 9 26 20 26 11 33 7 11 13 22 22 10 2240-49 18 16 18 18 15 16 12 17 21 17 17 14 20 1550-64 31 36 31 30 34 28 16 30 31 35 31 22 31 26Over 64 23 26 13 16 12 22 14 15 31 23 14 18 27 1718-49 42 33 54 52 54 45 65 51 35 37 53 55 38 5450 and over 54 62 43 46 46 50 30 45 62 58 46 40 58 42

Latino AgeTotal answering (287) (56) (43) (26) (21) (37) (32) (37) (35) (99) (47) (69) (72) (116)18-29 39 27 43 45 49 45 47 47 24 34 47 45 36 4630-39 17 19 19 11 15 22 18 12 13 19 13 20 12 1740-49 15 15 13 19 11 15 15 14 21 14 15 15 18 1550-64 17 24 16 18 9 7 8 23 20 21 14 7 22 10Over 64 10 14 8 6 15 8 10 1 19 11 10 9 10 918-49 72 62 75 75 76 82 79 73 58 67 75 81 66 7950 and over 27 38 24 24 24 14 17 24 39 32 24 16 31 19

Page 256

Total BROWN VCS

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

GenderTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Male 47 51 40 55 50 56 45 45 43 48 52 51 43 51Female 53 49 60 45 50 44 55 55 57 52 48 49 57 49

White genderTotal answering (1012) (293) (80) (44) (33) (62) (74) (106) (320) (373) (77) (136) (426) (213)Male 47 48 40 61 45 64 41 50 44 47 54 52 45 53Female 53 52 60 39 55 36 59 50 56 53 46 48 55 47

Latino genderTotal answering (287) (31) (22) (22) (18) (40) (33) (59) (62) (53) (40) (73) (121) (112)Male 44 57 28 44 65 46 47 42 37 45 54 46 39 49Female 56 43 72 56 35 54 53 58 63 55 46 54 61 51

AgeTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)18-24 10 3 19 17 18 13 16 16 7 7 17 14 10 1525-29 7 2 12 17 18 9 9 7 4 4 18 9 5 1230-34 7 5 6 11 6 16 11 9 3 5 9 13 5 1235-39 8 5 7 7 6 10 9 15 8 6 6 9 11 840-44 7 7 5 11 8 4 7 9 8 7 9 5 9 745-49 11 16 11 7 13 9 13 5 8 15 10 11 7 1050-54 8 10 10 7 7 6 8 9 8 10 7 7 8 755-59 9 10 9 4 8 9 6 7 11 10 6 7 10 760-64 9 11 9 1 2 6 7 8 13 10 2 7 12 5Over 64 19 27 10 10 14 15 11 11 24 23 12 13 20 12(No answer) 4 4 3 6 1 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 418-29 17 5 31 34 35 22 25 23 11 11 35 23 15 2830-39 15 10 13 18 12 25 20 24 11 11 15 23 15 2040-49 18 23 16 18 20 13 20 15 16 22 19 16 16 1750-64 27 31 27 13 17 21 21 24 33 30 15 21 30 19Over 64 19 27 10 10 14 15 11 11 24 23 12 13 20 1218-49 50 38 60 71 67 59 64 61 39 43 69 62 46 6550 and over 46 58 37 23 31 35 32 35 57 53 27 33 50 31

White AgeTotal answering (1012) (293) (80) (44) (33) (62) (74) (106) (320) (373) (77) (136) (426) (213)18-29 10 3 30 31 26 14 10 10 8 8 29 12 8 1830-39 14 10 8 21 3 20 28 26 9 10 14 24 13 2040-49 18 22 16 16 10 16 19 16 16 21 14 18 16 1650-64 31 31 31 15 34 29 24 30 35 31 23 27 34 25Over 64 23 30 12 12 25 17 15 15 27 26 17 16 24 1718-49 42 35 54 68 40 50 57 51 33 39 56 54 37 5550 and over 54 61 43 26 59 47 39 46 62 57 40 43 58 42

Latino AgeTotal answering (287) (31) (22) (22) (18) (40) (33) (59) (62) (53) (40) (73) (121) (112)18-29 39 23 42 56 51 39 40 46 31 31 54 40 38 4530-39 17 14 13 20 16 26 9 16 18 13 18 18 17 1840-49 15 24 17 4 16 13 20 14 15 21 10 16 15 1450-64 17 18 27 5 6 9 23 15 22 22 5 15 19 12Over 64 10 18 0 10 11 11 5 7 14 11 10 8 11 918-49 72 61 72 81 83 78 69 76 63 65 82 74 70 7750 and over 27 36 27 15 17 20 28 22 37 32 16 24 29 21

Page 257

Total WHITMAN VCS

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Brown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

better

Govt back

groundBiz back ground

Brown better

Whit man

better Boxer Fiorina DK/ Ref

GenderTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Male 47 45 51 47 47 45 49 45 51 47 48 44 53 38Female 53 55 49 53 53 55 51 55 49 53 52 56 47 62

White genderTotal answering (1012) (455) (360) (336) (420) (318) (488) (499) (458) (333) (492) (508) (440) (59)Male 47 48 50 49 44 46 49 44 52 49 47 44 52 38Female 53 52 50 51 56 54 51 56 48 51 53 56 48 62

Latino genderTotal answering (287) (132) (67) (119) (74) (122) (98) (115) (151) (104) (91) (173) (62) (48)Male 44 38 51 42 49 40 50 39 48 38 53 43 50 38Female 56 62 49 58 51 60 50 61 52 62 47 57 50 62

AgeTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)18-24 10 12 7 13 9 11 9 8 12 11 8 14 4 1425-29 7 5 5 4 7 5 7 8 6 4 7 7 5 1130-34 7 6 8 6 8 5 8 5 9 5 7 5 8 1135-39 8 7 9 9 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 10 6 1140-44 7 8 8 8 9 8 7 9 5 8 8 8 7 845-49 11 9 13 10 13 10 13 9 12 8 14 9 13 1150-54 8 8 9 7 10 8 9 9 8 8 10 7 10 555-59 9 11 8 9 9 12 8 11 8 12 8 10 10 560-64 9 11 8 11 7 12 8 10 8 12 8 10 10 4Over 64 19 19 20 19 19 20 19 19 18 21 19 17 23 13(No answer) 4 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 718-29 17 17 13 17 16 15 16 16 18 15 15 21 9 2530-39 15 13 17 15 14 12 16 13 17 13 13 15 14 2240-49 18 17 21 18 22 18 20 18 18 16 22 16 20 1950-64 27 30 25 28 26 32 25 30 25 32 26 27 30 14Over 64 19 19 20 19 19 20 19 19 18 21 19 17 23 1318-49 50 47 51 50 52 45 52 47 53 44 50 52 43 6550 and over 46 49 45 47 45 52 45 49 43 53 46 44 53 28

White AgeTotal answering (1012) (455) (360) (336) (420) (318) (488) (499) (458) (333) (492) (508) (440) (59)18-29 10 10 8 8 12 8 10 9 12 8 11 15 4 1130-39 14 11 16 12 13 8 15 11 17 11 12 14 13 2240-49 18 17 22 18 21 17 19 18 17 15 20 15 20 2350-64 31 37 27 33 29 39 28 36 27 37 29 33 32 15Over 64 23 23 24 24 22 25 24 23 23 25 24 20 27 2018-49 42 37 45 39 46 33 45 38 45 34 43 44 37 5650 and over 54 60 51 58 50 64 52 58 51 62 53 53 59 35

Latino AgeTotal answering (287) (132) (67) (119) (74) (122) (98) (115) (151) (104) (91) (173) (62) (48)18-29 39 42 36 39 40 34 43 40 39 37 40 38 39 4330-39 17 14 17 14 15 16 12 14 17 10 18 16 12 2740-49 15 13 16 16 18 16 18 14 18 16 19 16 18 1250-64 17 17 19 17 16 19 16 17 16 21 14 17 19 10Over 64 10 12 10 13 10 13 8 13 8 14 7 11 11 618-49 72 69 69 69 72 67 74 67 74 64 77 70 69 8250 and over 27 29 29 29 26 32 24 30 25 35 21 28 30 16

Page 258

ENERGY BCKGRND ECONOMY SEN VOTETotal UNDERSTAND CLEAR PLAN

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

GenderTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Male 47 44 45 48 36 51 32 43 55 45 43 42 53 42Female 53 56 55 52 64 49 68 57 45 55 57 58 47 58

White genderTotal answering (1012) (278) (102) (71) (56) (43) (45) (62) (354) (381) (127) (88) (416) (215)Male 47 43 49 51 29 44 22 52 55 44 41 33 55 38Female 53 57 51 49 71 56 78 48 45 56 59 67 45 62

Latino genderTotal answering (287) (53) (39) (43) (38) (28) (14) (28) (45) (92) (81) (41) (73) (122)Male 44 49 41 41 38 52 43 35 50 46 40 49 44 43Female 56 51 59 59 62 48 57 65 50 54 60 51 56 57

AgeTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)18-24 10 5 19 22 27 13 11 13 3 9 24 12 5 1925-29 7 5 7 17 7 14 11 5 3 5 12 13 4 1230-34 7 5 3 3 13 9 17 10 6 5 7 13 7 1035-39 8 8 14 11 9 9 6 15 5 10 10 7 7 940-44 7 8 11 4 5 8 11 5 7 9 4 9 7 745-49 11 10 6 7 9 9 8 16 13 9 8 9 14 850-54 8 8 8 9 5 7 10 6 10 8 7 9 10 855-59 9 12 8 7 6 7 8 3 11 11 7 7 9 760-64 9 13 10 6 6 2 1 8 11 12 6 2 10 4Over 64 19 22 12 11 10 15 13 14 26 19 11 14 24 12(No answer) 4 4 3 4 4 6 3 4 4 4 4 5 4 418-29 17 9 26 39 34 27 23 18 7 14 37 25 9 3230-39 15 13 18 13 21 18 23 25 11 14 17 20 13 1840-49 18 18 17 11 14 18 19 21 20 18 12 18 20 1550-64 27 33 25 21 17 17 19 17 32 31 19 18 29 19Over 64 19 22 12 11 10 15 13 14 26 19 11 14 24 1218-49 50 40 61 63 69 63 64 64 37 47 66 63 43 6550 and over 46 55 37 33 27 31 33 31 59 50 30 32 53 31

White AgeTotal answering (1012) (278) (102) (71) (56) (43) (45) (62) (354) (381) (127) (88) (416) (215)18-29 10 4 20 37 32 21 0 9 4 8 35 10 5 2530-39 14 12 12 17 17 11 29 23 10 12 17 20 12 1840-49 18 17 15 7 14 18 23 25 19 17 10 21 20 1550-64 31 36 34 24 23 17 26 18 34 36 23 22 31 23Over 64 23 25 16 12 10 23 18 20 30 23 11 20 28 1518-49 42 34 47 61 64 50 52 57 33 38 63 51 37 5850 and over 54 62 51 36 33 41 43 38 63 59 35 42 59 38

Latino AgeTotal answering (287) (53) (39) (43) (38) (28) (14) (28) (45) (92) (81) (41) (73) (122)18-29 39 25 44 48 39 43 51 46 33 33 44 46 38 4530-39 17 15 20 10 20 30 8 26 8 17 15 23 15 1740-49 15 16 17 15 15 11 11 10 22 17 15 11 17 1450-64 17 27 12 16 9 10 18 10 22 21 13 13 18 13Over 64 10 16 4 10 12 3 9 7 13 11 11 5 11 918-49 72 56 82 72 75 85 69 83 63 67 73 80 70 7650 and over 27 43 16 26 22 13 28 17 36 31 24 18 29 22

Page 259

Total BOXER VCS

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

GenderTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Male 47 55 51 38 39 43 44 45 54 44 41 45 42Female 53 45 49 62 61 57 56 55 46 56 59 55 58

White genderTotal answering (1012) (343) (50) (33) (87) (86) (113) (287) (393) (47) (173) (400) (220)Male 47 55 58 26 33 44 50 43 55 28 39 45 37Female 53 45 42 74 67 56 50 57 45 72 61 55 63

Latino genderTotal answering (287) (36) (13) (9) (61) (50) (53) (60) (49) (13) (111) (114) (124)Male 44 47 47 52 42 40 38 48 47 60 42 43 44Female 56 53 53 48 58 60 62 52 53 40 58 57 56

AgeTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)18-24 10 2 11 12 21 20 19 6 3 12 21 10 1925-29 7 3 4 14 10 15 7 5 3 13 12 5 1230-34 7 6 11 14 12 4 5 5 7 12 8 5 935-39 8 5 10 8 8 11 15 7 5 11 10 10 1040-44 7 7 5 7 5 6 11 8 7 9 6 9 645-49 11 14 18 5 9 10 6 10 14 6 9 9 950-54 8 10 9 12 5 8 7 8 10 11 6 8 755-59 9 11 4 7 7 7 7 11 10 7 7 10 760-64 9 12 8 1 4 5 9 13 11 2 5 12 4Over 64 19 26 16 17 12 11 12 22 25 16 11 19 12(No answer) 4 4 4 4 6 3 3 4 4 3 5 4 418-29 17 5 15 26 31 35 26 11 7 25 33 16 3130-39 15 11 20 22 21 15 20 12 12 22 18 15 1940-49 18 21 23 12 14 16 17 18 21 14 15 18 1550-64 27 33 20 20 17 20 23 33 31 20 18 29 19Over 64 19 26 16 17 12 11 12 22 25 16 11 19 1218-49 50 37 59 60 66 66 62 41 40 61 66 48 6550 and over 46 59 37 36 29 31 35 55 56 36 30 48 31

White AgeTotal answering (1012) (343) (50) (33) (87) (86) (113) (287) (393) (47) (173) (400) (220)18-29 10 3 11 0 29 30 18 5 4 5 29 9 2430-39 14 11 17 26 17 18 15 12 11 23 18 13 1940-49 18 19 27 18 15 16 14 17 20 15 16 16 1550-64 31 34 20 26 19 21 32 36 32 27 20 35 22Over 64 23 29 21 24 15 12 18 25 28 24 13 23 1618-49 42 33 55 44 61 64 47 34 36 44 63 38 5850 and over 54 63 40 50 34 33 50 61 60 51 34 58 37

Latino AgeTotal answering (287) (36) (13) (9) (61) (50) (53) (60) (49) (13) (111) (114) (124)18-29 39 28 39 68 39 46 46 29 31 66 42 37 4530-39 17 10 30 0 24 14 21 13 15 0 19 17 1740-49 15 22 9 9 12 13 17 17 18 19 12 17 1350-64 17 25 13 15 12 16 10 24 22 10 14 18 13Over 64 10 14 10 8 9 10 4 15 13 5 10 10 918-49 72 59 77 77 75 72 84 59 64 85 74 71 7550 and over 27 39 23 23 21 26 14 39 34 15 23 28 23

Page 260

Total FIORINA VCS

Page 261: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Support Obama

Oppose Obama

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better Favor Oppose

Impor tant

Not Impor tant

GenderTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Male 47 46 51 44 51 44 55 45 53 53 49 44 57Female 53 54 49 56 49 56 45 55 47 47 51 56 43

White genderTotal answering (1012) (537) (351) (341) (407) (422) (339) (371) (368) (390) (412) (721) (286)Male 47 47 50 42 52 43 55 44 53 54 47 44 56Female 53 53 50 58 48 57 45 56 47 46 53 56 44

Latino genderTotal answering (287) (202) (59) (125) (60) (123) (56) (108) (61) (102) (104) (244) (41)Male 44 41 53 44 44 45 50 44 48 55 45 41 66Female 56 59 47 56 56 55 50 56 52 45 55 59 34

AgeTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)18-24 10 13 7 11 6 11 5 11 6 11 11 11 825-29 7 8 4 5 4 5 3 5 4 7 6 8 330-34 7 8 6 6 7 5 7 5 6 9 4 7 635-39 8 9 6 8 6 10 5 9 5 7 9 9 540-44 7 8 7 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 8 645-49 11 9 13 10 13 10 14 9 13 12 11 10 1250-54 8 7 10 7 10 8 10 7 10 9 9 8 1155-59 9 10 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 1160-64 9 8 11 12 10 11 11 12 10 10 10 9 10Over 64 19 16 23 19 22 19 22 19 25 15 18 17 25(No answer) 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 4 418-29 17 21 11 17 10 17 8 16 10 18 17 19 1130-39 15 17 13 14 13 16 12 15 11 17 13 16 1140-49 18 17 20 19 21 18 22 18 20 20 19 18 1850-64 27 25 29 28 30 28 32 29 30 28 29 26 31Over 64 19 16 23 19 22 19 22 19 25 15 18 17 2518-49 50 55 44 50 44 50 42 48 41 54 49 53 4050 and over 46 42 51 47 52 47 54 48 56 43 47 43 56

White AgeTotal answering (1012) (537) (351) (341) (407) (422) (339) (371) (368) (390) (412) (721) (286)18-29 10 14 6 11 5 10 3 11 5 12 10 11 830-39 14 15 13 12 12 15 10 13 10 14 14 15 1140-49 18 16 20 18 21 17 23 17 20 20 18 18 1750-64 31 30 31 34 32 33 34 34 32 32 33 31 33Over 64 23 21 25 23 26 22 26 22 30 19 21 22 2718-49 42 46 39 41 38 42 35 41 35 46 41 44 3750 and over 54 51 57 57 58 55 61 56 62 51 54 52 60

Latino AgeTotal answering (287) (202) (59) (125) (60) (123) (56) (108) (61) (102) (104) (244) (41)18-29 39 39 46 34 43 36 44 37 41 42 42 40 3730-39 17 18 12 15 12 13 11 13 16 15 13 19 340-49 15 15 17 20 14 15 17 14 13 12 20 15 2050-64 17 17 14 17 19 19 19 20 18 20 14 16 21Over 64 10 10 10 14 11 14 8 14 11 11 8 9 1718-49 72 71 75 68 69 65 72 64 70 69 76 74 6150 and over 27 27 24 31 30 33 27 34 29 30 22 25 38

Page 261

SHARE VALUES JOBS ECON PROP 23 GW IMPTTotal SENTYPE CHANGE

Page 262: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

White Black Latino Asian Men Women Men Women Men Women

GenderTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Male 47 47 48 44 48 100 0 100 0 100 0Female 53 53 52 56 52 0 100 0 100 0 100

White genderTotal answering (1012) (1012) (6) (6) (0) (479) (533) (479) (533) (2) (4)Male 47 47 100 33 0 100 0 100 0 100 0Female 53 53 0 67 0 0 100 0 100 0 100

Latino genderTotal answering (287) (6) (0) (287) (0) (127) (160) (2) (4) (127) (160)Male 44 33 0 44 0 100 0 100 0 100 0Female 56 67 0 56 0 0 100 0 100 0 100

AgeTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)18-24 10 5 4 29 17 11 10 6 5 30 2825-29 7 5 10 11 12 7 6 6 5 10 1130-34 7 6 9 7 14 8 6 8 4 6 935-39 8 8 17 9 13 8 9 8 7 10 840-44 7 7 7 7 11 6 8 6 9 7 745-49 11 10 22 8 10 10 11 9 11 9 750-54 8 9 4 6 8 9 8 9 9 7 655-59 9 11 7 4 2 10 8 12 10 3 560-64 9 11 3 6 5 10 9 12 10 6 6Over 64 19 23 12 10 2 17 21 20 26 10 10(No answer) 4 4 5 2 6 4 4 4 4 1 218-29 17 10 15 39 29 18 16 12 9 40 3930-39 15 14 25 17 27 16 14 16 11 16 1740-49 18 18 29 15 21 17 19 15 20 16 1550-64 27 31 14 17 16 29 25 33 29 16 17Over 64 19 23 12 10 2 17 21 20 26 10 1018-49 50 42 69 72 76 51 49 43 41 72 7150 and over 46 54 25 27 18 45 46 54 55 27 27

White AgeTotal answering (1012) (1012) (6) (6) (0) (479) (533) (479) (533) (2) (4)18-29 10 10 85 27 0 12 9 12 9 0 4130-39 14 14 0 33 0 16 11 16 11 100 040-49 18 18 0 0 0 15 20 15 20 0 050-64 31 31 0 40 0 33 29 33 29 0 59Over 64 23 23 15 0 0 20 26 20 26 0 018-49 42 42 85 60 0 43 41 43 41 100 4150 and over 54 54 15 40 0 54 55 54 55 0 59

Latino AgeTotal answering (287) (6) (0) (287) (0) (127) (160) (2) (4) (127) (160)18-29 39 27 0 39 0 40 39 0 41 40 3930-39 17 33 0 17 0 16 17 100 0 16 1740-49 15 0 0 15 0 16 15 0 0 16 1550-64 17 40 0 17 0 16 17 0 59 16 17Over 64 10 0 0 10 0 10 10 0 0 10 1018-49 72 60 0 72 0 72 71 100 41 72 7150 and over 27 40 0 27 0 27 27 0 59 27 27

Page 262

WHT GEN LAT GENTotal RACE GENDER

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over

GenderTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Male 47 49 50 44 50 41 48 46Female 53 51 50 56 50 59 52 54

White genderTotal answering (1012) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551)Male 47 52 57 39 51 41 48 47Female 53 48 43 61 49 59 52 53

Latino genderTotal answering (287) (113) (48) (44) (48) (29) (205) (76)Male 44 45 43 47 44 45 45 44Female 56 55 57 53 56 55 55 56

AgeTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)18-24 10 61 0 0 0 0 21 025-29 7 39 0 0 0 0 13 030-34 7 0 45 0 0 0 13 035-39 8 0 55 0 0 0 17 040-44 7 0 0 41 0 0 15 045-49 11 0 0 59 0 0 21 050-54 8 0 0 0 31 0 0 1855-59 9 0 0 0 34 0 0 2060-64 9 0 0 0 35 0 0 21Over 64 19 0 0 0 0 100 0 41(No answer) 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 018-29 17 100 0 0 0 0 34 030-39 15 0 100 0 0 0 30 040-49 18 0 0 100 0 0 36 050-64 27 0 0 0 100 0 0 59Over 64 19 0 0 0 0 100 0 4118-49 50 100 100 100 0 0 100 050 and over 46 0 0 0 100 100 0 100

White AgeTotal answering (1012) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551)18-29 10 100 0 0 0 0 25 030-39 14 0 100 0 0 0 33 040-49 18 0 0 100 0 0 42 050-64 31 0 0 0 100 0 0 57Over 64 23 0 0 0 0 100 0 4318-49 42 100 100 100 0 0 100 050 and over 54 0 0 0 100 100 0 100

Latino AgeTotal answering (287) (113) (48) (44) (48) (29) (205) (76)18-29 39 100 0 0 0 0 55 030-39 17 0 100 0 0 0 23 040-49 15 0 0 100 0 0 22 050-64 17 0 0 0 100 0 0 62Over 64 10 0 0 0 0 100 0 3818-49 72 100 100 100 0 0 100 050 and over 27 0 0 0 100 100 0 100

Page 263

Total AGE

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over 18-29 30-4950 and

over 18-4950 and

over

GenderTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Male 47 52 57 39 51 41 48 47 45 45 44 45 44Female 53 48 43 61 49 59 52 53 55 55 56 55 56

White genderTotal answering (1012) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (2) (2) (2) (4) (2)Male 47 52 57 39 51 41 48 47 0 100 0 55 0Female 53 48 43 61 49 59 52 53 100 0 100 45 100

Latino genderTotal answering (287) (2) (2) (0) (2) (0) (4) (2) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Male 44 0 100 0 0 0 55 0 45 45 44 45 44Female 56 100 0 0 100 0 45 100 55 55 56 55 56

AgeTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)18-24 10 49 0 0 0 0 12 0 73 0 0 40 025-29 7 51 0 0 0 0 13 0 27 0 0 15 030-34 7 0 43 0 0 0 14 0 0 23 0 10 035-39 8 0 57 0 0 0 19 0 0 29 0 13 040-44 7 0 0 42 0 0 18 0 0 23 0 10 045-49 11 0 0 58 0 0 24 0 0 25 0 11 050-54 8 0 0 0 29 0 0 17 0 0 24 0 2455-59 9 0 0 0 36 0 0 20 0 0 15 0 1560-64 9 0 0 0 35 0 0 20 0 0 23 0 23Over 64 19 0 0 0 0 100 0 43 0 0 38 0 38(No answer) 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 018-29 17 100 0 0 0 0 25 0 100 0 0 55 030-39 15 0 100 0 0 0 33 0 0 52 0 23 040-49 18 0 0 100 0 0 42 0 0 48 0 22 050-64 27 0 0 0 100 0 0 57 0 0 62 0 62Over 64 19 0 0 0 0 100 0 43 0 0 38 0 3818-49 50 100 100 100 0 0 100 0 100 100 0 100 050 and over 46 0 0 0 100 100 0 100 0 0 100 0 100

White AgeTotal answering (1012) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (2) (2) (2) (4) (2)18-29 10 100 0 0 0 0 25 0 100 0 0 45 030-39 14 0 100 0 0 0 33 0 0 100 0 55 040-49 18 0 0 100 0 0 42 0 0 0 0 0 050-64 31 0 0 0 100 0 0 57 0 0 100 0 100Over 64 23 0 0 0 0 100 0 43 0 0 0 0 018-49 42 100 100 100 0 0 100 0 100 100 0 100 050 and over 54 0 0 0 100 100 0 100 0 0 100 0 100

Latino AgeTotal answering (287) (2) (2) (0) (2) (0) (4) (2) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)18-29 39 100 0 0 0 0 45 0 100 0 0 55 030-39 17 0 100 0 0 0 55 0 0 52 0 23 040-49 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 0 22 050-64 17 0 0 0 100 0 0 100 0 0 62 0 62Over 64 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38 0 3818-49 72 100 100 0 0 0 100 0 100 100 0 100 050 and over 27 0 0 0 100 0 0 100 0 0 100 0 100

Page 264

Total WHT AGE LAT AGE

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Young Women

Young Men

Older Women

Older Men

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

GenderTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Male 47 0 100 0 100 44 47 51 45 46 48Female 53 100 0 100 0 56 53 49 55 54 52

White genderTotal answering (1012) (217) (204) (294) (257) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575)Male 47 0 100 0 100 43 48 53 43 46 48Female 53 100 0 100 0 57 52 47 57 54 52

Latino genderTotal answering (287) (114) (92) (43) (34) (101) (116) (44) (25) (217) (68)Male 44 0 100 0 100 46 42 47 44 44 46Female 56 100 0 100 0 54 58 53 56 56 54

AgeTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)18-24 10 20 21 0 0 14 21 3 2 18 225-29 7 13 14 0 0 4 10 9 2 8 630-34 7 11 16 0 0 4 7 6 8 6 735-39 8 17 16 0 0 7 5 11 12 6 1140-44 7 17 13 0 0 11 4 8 9 6 945-49 11 22 20 0 0 6 9 14 11 8 1350-54 8 0 0 17 19 8 8 9 8 8 955-59 9 0 0 18 22 9 8 9 11 8 1060-64 9 0 0 19 22 8 7 11 13 7 12Over 64 19 0 0 45 37 25 16 18 20 20 18(No answer) 4 0 0 0 0 4 4 3 4 4 318-29 17 33 35 0 0 18 31 11 4 26 830-39 15 29 32 0 0 11 12 17 20 12 1840-49 18 38 33 0 0 17 13 22 20 15 2150-64 27 0 0 55 63 24 23 29 33 24 31Over 64 19 0 0 45 37 25 16 18 20 20 1818-49 50 100 100 0 0 46 56 51 44 53 4850 and over 46 0 0 100 100 50 40 47 52 43 49

White AgeTotal answering (1012) (217) (204) (294) (257) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575)18-29 10 23 27 0 0 12 19 8 2 17 630-39 14 27 39 0 0 6 13 14 19 11 1640-49 18 50 34 0 0 14 12 23 20 13 2150-64 31 0 0 53 62 28 30 32 34 29 33Over 64 23 0 0 47 38 36 21 20 22 26 2118-49 42 100 100 0 0 31 44 45 41 40 4350 and over 54 0 0 100 100 64 52 52 56 55 54

Latino AgeTotal answering (287) (114) (92) (43) (34) (101) (116) (44) (25) (217) (68)18-29 39 55 55 0 0 29 59 27 14 45 2230-39 17 24 22 0 0 14 10 35 28 12 3340-49 15 21 23 0 0 20 12 12 21 15 1550-64 17 0 0 63 62 22 11 15 24 16 19Over 64 10 0 0 37 38 12 8 9 12 10 1018-49 72 100 100 0 0 63 80 74 63 72 7050 and over 27 0 0 100 100 34 19 25 36 26 29

Page 265

Total GENDER/AGE EDUCATION

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Non College College

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

GenderTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Male 47 43 48 53 43 46 48 44 46 100 100 0 0Female 53 57 52 47 57 54 52 56 54 0 0 100 100

White genderTotal answering (1012) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (3) (3) (200) (278) (232) (297)Male 47 43 48 53 43 46 48 0 74 100 100 0 0Female 53 57 52 47 57 54 52 100 26 0 0 100 100

Latino genderTotal answering (287) (0) (3) (2) (1) (3) (3) (217) (68) (95) (31) (122) (37)Male 44 0 0 100 0 0 74 44 46 100 100 0 0Female 56 0 100 0 100 100 26 56 54 0 0 100 100

AgeTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)18-24 10 8 11 2 0 10 1 36 7 19 2 18 225-29 7 3 8 6 2 7 4 9 15 7 8 9 430-34 7 2 8 4 7 6 6 5 16 10 6 3 835-39 8 3 4 10 11 4 10 7 17 6 10 5 1240-44 7 10 4 8 8 6 8 7 10 5 8 7 945-49 11 4 8 14 11 7 13 9 6 9 12 8 1450-54 8 9 10 9 8 9 9 6 6 10 8 7 955-59 9 11 11 11 12 11 11 4 4 10 10 7 1060-64 9 8 9 12 14 9 13 6 8 7 13 8 11Over 64 19 36 21 20 22 26 21 10 10 14 20 25 17(No answer) 4 5 4 3 3 5 3 2 1 3 4 5 218-29 17 12 19 8 2 17 6 45 22 26 10 26 630-39 15 6 13 14 19 11 16 12 33 16 16 8 2040-49 18 14 12 23 20 13 21 15 15 15 19 15 2350-64 27 28 30 32 34 29 33 16 19 27 31 21 31Over 64 19 36 21 20 22 26 21 10 10 14 20 25 1718-49 50 31 44 45 41 40 43 72 70 56 46 49 5050 and over 46 64 52 52 56 55 54 26 29 40 50 46 48

White AgeTotal answering (1012) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (3) (3) (200) (278) (232) (297)18-29 10 12 19 8 2 17 6 49 0 18 7 16 430-39 14 6 13 14 19 11 16 0 74 18 16 4 1740-49 18 14 12 23 20 13 21 0 0 10 18 15 2550-64 31 28 30 32 34 29 33 51 26 33 34 26 32Over 64 23 36 21 20 22 26 21 0 0 18 22 33 2018-49 42 31 44 45 41 40 43 49 74 46 40 35 4650 and over 54 64 52 52 56 55 54 51 26 51 56 59 52

Latino AgeTotal answering (287) (0) (3) (2) (1) (3) (3) (217) (68) (95) (31) (122) (37)18-29 39 0 49 0 0 49 0 45 22 45 26 45 1930-39 17 0 0 100 0 0 74 12 33 12 30 12 3540-49 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 15 18 12 13 1850-64 17 0 51 0 100 51 26 16 19 16 18 16 19Over 64 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 8 15 11 618-49 72 0 49 100 0 49 74 72 70 74 67 70 7250 and over 27 0 51 0 100 51 26 26 29 24 33 27 26

Page 266

GENDER/EDUCTotal WHT EDUC LAT EDUC

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

GenderTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Male 47 100 100 0 0 49 46 43 50 53 45 42 50Female 53 0 0 100 100 51 54 57 50 47 55 58 50

White genderTotal answering (1012) (200) (278) (232) (297) (172) (248) (239) (309) (172) (248) (239) (309)Male 47 100 100 0 0 53 45 42 50 53 45 42 50Female 53 0 0 100 100 47 55 58 50 47 55 58 50

Latino genderTotal answering (287) (0) (2) (3) (1) (157) (48) (56) (20) (2) (2) (2) (1)Male 44 0 100 0 0 45 44 41 52 0 100 0 0Female 56 0 0 100 100 55 56 59 48 100 0 100 100

AgeTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)18-24 10 12 1 9 1 35 5 0 0 26 3 0 025-29 7 6 6 7 3 15 12 0 0 16 10 0 030-34 7 11 6 2 5 12 15 0 0 16 13 0 035-39 8 6 9 2 12 11 24 0 0 10 24 0 040-44 7 4 7 8 10 12 18 0 0 15 19 0 045-49 11 7 11 7 15 16 27 0 0 16 30 0 050-54 8 11 8 8 9 0 0 19 18 0 0 17 1655-59 9 14 11 9 11 0 0 19 21 0 0 20 2160-64 9 8 14 9 12 0 0 17 24 0 0 16 24Over 64 19 18 22 33 20 0 0 45 37 0 0 47 39(No answer) 4 3 4 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 018-29 17 18 7 16 4 50 17 0 0 42 13 0 030-39 15 18 16 4 17 22 39 0 0 26 37 0 040-49 18 10 18 15 25 28 45 0 0 32 49 0 050-64 27 33 34 26 32 0 0 55 63 0 0 53 61Over 64 19 18 22 33 20 0 0 45 37 0 0 47 3918-49 50 46 40 35 46 100 100 0 0 100 100 0 050 and over 46 51 56 59 52 0 0 100 100 0 0 100 100

White AgeTotal answering (1012) (200) (278) (232) (297) (172) (248) (239) (309) (172) (248) (239) (309)18-29 10 18 7 16 4 42 13 0 0 42 13 0 030-39 14 18 16 4 17 26 37 0 0 26 37 0 040-49 18 10 18 15 25 32 49 0 0 32 49 0 050-64 31 33 34 26 32 0 0 53 61 0 0 53 61Over 64 23 18 22 33 20 0 0 47 39 0 0 47 3918-49 42 46 40 35 46 100 100 0 0 100 100 0 050 and over 54 51 56 59 52 0 0 100 100 0 0 100 100

Latino AgeTotal answering (287) (0) (2) (3) (1) (157) (48) (56) (20) (2) (2) (2) (1)18-29 39 0 0 49 0 62 32 0 0 100 0 0 030-39 17 0 100 0 0 16 46 0 0 0 100 0 040-49 15 0 0 0 0 21 22 0 0 0 0 0 050-64 17 0 0 51 100 0 0 62 64 0 0 100 100Over 64 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 38 36 0 0 0 018-49 72 0 100 49 0 100 100 0 0 100 100 0 050 and over 27 0 0 51 100 0 0 100 100 0 0 100 100

Page 267

Total WHT GEN/EDUC AGE/EDUC WHT AGE/EDUC

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

MemberHhold

memberNo

memberTotal Union Member

Hhold member

No member

Total Union Member

No member

Total Union

GenderTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Male 47 54 51 46 50 54 52 47 49 55 45 52Female 53 46 49 54 50 46 48 53 51 45 55 48

White genderTotal answering (1012) (121) (56) (787) (215) (121) (56) (787) (215) (0) (0) (0)Male 47 54 52 47 49 54 52 47 49 0 0 0Female 53 46 48 53 51 46 48 53 51 0 0 0

Latino genderTotal answering (287) (20) (19) (225) (56) (0) (0) (5) (1) (20) (220) (56)Male 44 61 43 43 50 0 0 37 0 61 43 51Female 56 39 57 57 50 0 0 63 100 39 57 49

AgeTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)18-24 10 3 25 10 9 1 20 5 6 8 23 1525-29 7 5 13 6 7 5 13 5 6 6 9 930-34 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 6 7 7 8 735-39 8 8 4 9 7 8 6 8 8 7 11 640-44 7 7 8 7 8 5 7 8 7 10 7 945-49 11 18 7 10 14 16 3 9 13 22 10 1650-54 8 11 8 8 10 11 10 9 11 11 6 955-59 9 12 10 9 11 14 12 11 13 7 5 760-64 9 12 7 9 11 15 7 11 13 7 6 8Over 64 19 11 10 21 12 13 12 26 13 7 10 10(No answer) 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 4 4 6 4 418-29 17 9 37 17 16 6 33 10 12 15 32 2430-39 15 16 11 15 14 16 14 13 15 15 19 1340-49 18 24 14 17 22 21 9 17 20 32 17 2550-64 27 36 24 26 32 40 29 30 36 25 17 24Over 64 19 11 10 21 12 13 12 26 13 7 10 1018-49 50 49 63 49 52 43 56 40 47 62 69 6250 and over 46 47 35 47 44 54 41 56 49 33 28 34

White AgeTotal answering (1012) (121) (56) (787) (215) (121) (56) (787) (215) (0) (0) (0)18-29 10 6 33 10 12 6 33 10 12 0 0 030-39 14 16 14 13 15 16 14 13 15 0 0 040-49 18 21 9 17 20 21 9 17 20 0 0 050-64 31 40 29 30 36 40 29 30 36 0 0 0Over 64 23 13 12 26 13 13 12 26 13 0 0 018-49 42 43 56 40 47 43 56 40 47 0 0 050 and over 54 54 41 56 49 54 41 56 49 0 0 0

Latino AgeTotal answering (287) (20) (19) (225) (56) (0) (0) (5) (1) (20) (220) (56)18-29 39 30 58 40 35 0 0 31 0 30 40 3530-39 17 24 11 16 20 0 0 37 0 24 16 2140-49 15 15 5 17 11 0 0 0 0 15 17 1150-64 17 20 15 16 21 0 0 32 100 20 15 20Over 64 10 8 10 10 11 0 0 0 0 8 10 1118-49 72 69 74 73 66 0 0 68 0 69 73 6750 and over 27 29 25 25 32 0 0 32 100 29 25 31

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NONWT UNIONTotal UNION WHT UNION

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Married Single

Sep Divor ced

Wid owed

Sep Div Wid

Unmarr ied

Married Women

Unmarr ied

WomenMarried

MenUnmarr ied Men

Voted in person

Voted by mail

GenderTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Male 47 50 51 36 27 33 44 0 0 100 100 50 42Female 53 50 49 64 73 67 56 100 100 0 0 50 58

White genderTotal answering (1012) (610) (218) (105) (69) (174) (392) (300) (224) (310) (168) (458) (461)Male 47 51 52 35 27 32 43 0 0 100 100 51 43Female 53 49 48 65 73 68 57 100 100 0 0 49 57

Latino genderTotal answering (287) (141) (112) (20) (10) (30) (142) (79) (81) (62) (62) (147) (77)Male 44 44 44 47 25 40 43 0 0 100 100 42 42Female 56 56 56 53 75 60 57 100 100 0 0 58 58

AgeTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)18-24 10 1 36 2 0 1 23 2 20 0 27 10 325-29 7 2 18 4 2 3 13 3 11 2 14 8 530-34 7 8 7 2 0 1 5 8 3 8 8 7 635-39 8 11 7 4 0 2 5 11 5 10 5 8 840-44 7 9 6 7 0 4 5 11 5 7 6 8 645-49 11 14 6 7 1 5 6 13 6 14 5 13 850-54 8 11 5 7 1 5 5 10 6 12 3 9 855-59 9 11 3 22 2 14 7 10 6 11 9 10 1060-64 9 12 4 14 5 11 7 11 7 12 6 9 11Over 64 19 18 4 26 84 49 21 17 26 19 14 13 30(No answer) 4 4 3 3 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 418-29 17 4 54 6 2 4 36 4 31 3 41 18 830-39 15 19 14 6 0 4 10 19 8 18 13 15 1540-49 18 23 12 14 1 9 11 25 11 21 10 21 1450-64 27 33 12 44 8 30 19 31 19 36 18 28 29Over 64 19 18 4 26 84 49 21 17 26 19 14 13 3018-49 50 45 80 26 3 17 57 48 51 42 65 55 3750 and over 46 51 16 70 92 79 40 48 45 54 32 41 59

White AgeTotal answering (1012) (610) (218) (105) (69) (174) (392) (300) (224) (310) (168) (458) (461)18-29 10 2 40 3 0 2 23 3 18 2 29 11 630-39 14 16 17 4 0 2 10 15 7 17 15 14 1240-49 18 22 15 9 0 6 11 25 13 19 7 21 1450-64 31 36 17 50 8 33 24 34 24 38 24 34 30Over 64 23 21 7 31 87 53 27 20 34 21 19 16 3318-49 42 40 71 16 0 10 44 43 38 38 52 46 3250 and over 54 57 24 81 95 87 52 54 58 59 43 50 64

Latino AgeTotal answering (287) (141) (112) (20) (10) (30) (142) (79) (81) (62) (62) (147) (77)18-29 39 10 85 0 14 5 68 12 66 7 70 38 2530-39 17 27 6 16 0 11 7 28 7 25 8 19 1740-49 15 24 3 40 0 27 8 24 6 23 11 18 1350-64 17 24 5 30 15 25 9 23 11 27 6 14 23Over 64 10 13 1 14 68 32 8 10 10 16 5 8 2018-49 72 60 94 56 14 42 83 64 78 55 89 75 5550 and over 27 37 6 44 83 57 17 33 21 43 11 23 43

Page 269

Total MARITAL MARITAL/GENDER 2008

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Voted in person

Voted by mail A B Cell Landline Base Latino

GenderTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Male 47 47 45 50 44 53 46 48 45Female 53 53 55 50 56 47 54 52 55

White genderTotal answering (1012) (380) (316) (504) (508) (135) (877) (957) (55)Male 47 48 47 51 44 53 46 48 36Female 53 52 53 49 56 47 54 52 64

Latino genderTotal answering (287) (82) (42) (142) (146) (15) (272) (45) (242)Male 44 45 43 49 39 38 45 40 45Female 56 55 57 51 61 62 55 60 55

AgeTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)18-24 10 2 1 10 10 22 9 6 2625-29 7 4 2 6 7 21 5 6 930-34 7 6 8 7 7 16 5 7 735-39 8 8 7 9 8 11 8 8 1040-44 7 8 6 8 6 9 7 8 745-49 11 13 7 11 10 5 11 11 1050-54 8 10 9 8 8 3 9 9 655-59 9 10 12 8 10 6 10 10 560-64 9 12 11 9 10 2 10 10 7Over 64 19 22 32 19 19 3 21 21 11(No answer) 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 5 218-29 17 6 3 17 17 43 13 12 3530-39 15 14 15 16 14 26 13 14 1740-49 18 21 13 19 17 14 19 18 1750-64 27 33 32 26 28 12 29 30 18Over 64 19 22 32 19 19 3 21 21 1118-49 50 41 32 52 48 83 45 45 6950 and over 46 55 65 44 48 15 50 51 29

White AgeTotal answering (1012) (380) (316) (504) (508) (135) (877) (957) (55)18-29 10 2 2 11 9 44 5 11 730-39 14 12 14 13 14 27 12 13 2340-49 18 20 12 19 16 11 19 17 2550-64 31 35 35 30 32 12 34 31 28Over 64 23 26 34 23 24 4 26 24 1618-49 42 34 28 44 40 82 35 41 5550 and over 54 61 69 53 56 16 60 55 45

Latino AgeTotal answering (287) (82) (42) (142) (146) (15) (272) (45) (242)18-29 39 25 20 38 41 54 39 21 4330-39 17 20 19 20 14 34 16 19 1640-49 15 16 13 17 14 10 16 17 1550-64 17 25 18 13 20 0 17 27 15Over 64 10 12 29 10 10 2 10 13 918-49 72 61 52 74 69 98 70 58 7450 and over 27 37 47 24 29 2 28 40 24

Page 270

PHONE SAMPLETotal 2006 SPLIT

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LIKELY

Likely Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS

Reg Rep Not ID Rep

Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Mod erate

Conser vative

Gender/AgeTotal answering (1451) (805) (649) (409) (372) (662) (453) (282) (145) (138) (398) (574) (429)Young Women 27 23 30 26 21 28 21 35 23 31 29 30 22Young Men 25 19 24 27 24 22 22 35 21 19 29 24 22Older Women 26 30 27 22 28 28 29 16 28 25 25 24 31Older Men 22 28 19 25 26 22 28 14 28 26 17 23 26

White Gender/AgeTotal answering (972) (595) (391) (279) (300) (400) (357) (178) (94) (79) (262) (393) (301)Young Women 22 19 24 22 20 21 17 34 14 22 23 27 18Young Men 21 17 20 23 20 18 19 28 17 13 26 20 18Older Women 30 33 33 26 30 34 33 20 37 30 31 26 35Older Men 26 32 23 28 30 27 31 17 32 35 20 28 29

EducationTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)1 - 11th grade 4 2 6 3 1 6 1 3 1 5 3 3 4High school grad 14 12 15 13 15 16 15 10 14 16 10 12 20Non-college post H.S. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 0Some college 31 28 29 31 33 29 33 33 36 29 33 31 30College graduate 28 29 26 29 30 25 28 32 22 30 27 29 28Post-grad 21 27 23 23 19 23 20 19 21 19 26 24 16(Ph.D) 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 3 3 1 0(MD) 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0(MA) 2 3 3 2 1 3 2 1 2 2 3 2 1(MBA) 2 3 2 3 1 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 1(JD) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1(DDS) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0(MHP) 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0(Other PG) 15 19 16 15 13 16 14 14 13 12 17 17 12(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0(Refuse) 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 3 1 0 0 1HS or less 18 14 20 15 17 22 16 13 16 21 13 15 25Post HS 32 29 30 32 34 29 34 34 38 29 33 32 31College grad 49 57 49 52 48 48 48 52 43 49 54 52 44Non College 50 42 51 47 51 51 50 47 53 50 46 47 55

White EducationTotal answering (1012) (618) (402) (297) (311) (415) (374) (186) (101) (83) (268) (411) (315)1 - 11th grade 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1High school grad 12 11 10 13 15 12 15 9 14 12 8 10 19Non-college post H.S. 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 2 0 0 1 1Some college 29 27 25 28 34 24 31 31 30 25 25 30 31College graduate 31 31 32 31 31 31 30 36 25 38 32 32 31Post-grad 25 30 30 26 19 30 21 23 26 25 34 26 18(Ph.D) 2 2 2 3 1 2 1 2 1 3 4 2 1(MD) 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 0(MA) 2 3 3 2 1 3 2 1 3 3 3 2 2(MBA) 2 3 2 3 1 2 2 1 5 2 2 2 1(JD) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1(DDS) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0(MHP) 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0(Other PG) 18 20 22 16 14 22 15 16 17 15 23 18 13(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0HS or less 13 11 12 14 15 13 15 9 15 12 8 10 20Post HS 29 27 26 28 34 25 32 31 32 25 25 31 31College grad 57 61 62 57 50 61 52 59 51 63 66 58 48Non College 43 38 38 42 49 38 48 40 47 36 33 41 51

Page 271

IDEOLOGYTotal PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated Right Wrong

Gender/AgeTotal answering (1451) (374) (413) (186) (310) (168) (295) (338) (173) (268) (377) (144) (1187)Young Women 27 29 33 24 19 25 29 28 24 18 33 31 26Young Men 25 29 21 28 20 30 27 17 23 21 34 31 24Older Women 26 24 26 24 32 19 26 31 27 32 16 24 26Older Men 22 17 20 24 28 26 18 24 27 29 17 14 24

White Gender/AgeTotal answering (972) (252) (239) (132) (258) (91) (194) (194) (133) (220) (230) (71) (831)Young Women 22 23 30 19 19 15 23 20 18 17 31 12 22Young Men 21 27 15 22 18 27 24 12 20 18 28 40 20Older Women 30 31 30 27 33 24 33 35 30 35 20 31 31Older Men 26 19 25 32 30 33 20 32 32 30 21 18 27

EducationTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)1 - 11th grade 4 3 7 1 1 4 4 8 1 1 4 12 2High school grad 14 9 17 14 17 13 11 18 8 18 13 22 13Non-college post H.S. 1 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 1Some college 31 33 27 30 32 35 33 25 34 33 32 26 32College graduate 28 28 26 28 30 25 25 26 26 30 29 22 28Post-grad 21 27 20 22 19 18 27 22 26 17 19 17 23(Ph.D) 2 3 1 2 1 1 3 1 2 0 2 2 2(MD) 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1(MA) 2 3 2 1 2 1 4 2 1 2 1 3 2(MBA) 2 2 1 1 2 4 2 2 3 2 2 1 2(JD) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0(DDS) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0(MHP) 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0(Other PG) 15 17 16 16 13 11 18 16 17 12 13 11 16(Don't know) 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0(Refuse) 1 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 1 1 1 0 1HS or less 18 12 25 16 18 17 15 26 9 19 17 33 16Post HS 32 34 28 32 33 36 33 26 37 33 34 27 32College grad 49 55 46 50 49 43 52 48 52 47 48 39 51Non College 50 45 53 48 51 54 48 52 46 52 50 60 48

White EducationTotal answering (1012) (257) (250) (138) (267) (101) (197) (207) (141) (229) (239) (73) (866)1 - 11th grade 1 1 2 0 1 2 1 1 0 1 2 3 1High school grad 12 8 13 13 18 8 10 13 8 18 11 12 13Non-college post H.S. 1 0 1 1 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 0 1Some college 29 24 29 30 32 29 24 25 32 32 31 21 29College graduate 31 33 30 31 31 34 30 33 28 32 33 36 30Post-grad 25 34 25 23 18 25 34 27 28 17 22 25 26(Ph.D) 2 4 1 1 1 2 3 2 2 1 3 3 2(MD) 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1(MA) 2 4 2 1 2 1 5 2 2 2 1 6 2(MBA) 2 3 2 1 1 6 2 2 3 1 2 2 2(JD) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0(DDS) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0(MHP) 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 1(Other PG) 18 23 19 17 13 15 25 20 19 12 14 14 18(Don't know) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0HS or less 13 9 15 13 18 10 11 14 8 19 13 15 13Post HS 29 24 29 31 32 31 24 26 34 32 32 21 30College grad 57 67 55 54 49 59 64 60 56 49 55 61 56Non College 43 33 44 44 51 40 35 40 42 50 44 36 43

Page 272

Total PTY/IDEO PTYREG/IDEO STATE DIR

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

10 8-10 6-10 0-5 0-7 BrownWhit man Und Ref

Gender/AgeTotal answering (1451) (439) (746) (1033) (409) (696) (669) (608) (143)Young Women 27 18 20 25 33 35 27 26 37Young Men 25 18 23 25 24 27 23 25 24Older Women 26 32 30 25 26 21 27 25 21Older Men 22 31 27 24 17 17 22 24 18

White Gender/AgeTotal answering (972) (322) (501) (699) (269) (467) (443) (433) (71)Young Women 22 15 16 21 25 29 22 23 26Young Men 21 17 19 21 21 23 20 20 22Older Women 30 35 34 29 33 26 32 29 26Older Men 26 33 31 28 21 21 27 27 26

EducationTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)1 - 11th grade 4 5 5 4 3 3 4 2 9High school grad 14 15 13 13 17 15 12 15 20Non-college post H.S. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Some college 31 28 29 31 31 34 28 33 32College graduate 28 25 28 27 28 27 29 28 22Post-grad 21 24 23 23 18 20 25 21 13(Ph.D) 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2(MD) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0(MA) 2 2 3 3 1 1 3 2 0(MBA) 2 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 2(JD) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0(DDS) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0(MHP) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0(Other PG) 15 18 16 16 13 14 17 14 9(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1(Refuse) 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 2HS or less 18 19 18 17 20 18 16 17 29Post HS 32 29 30 32 33 34 29 33 33College grad 49 50 51 50 47 47 54 49 35Non College 50 49 48 49 53 53 46 50 63

White EducationTotal answering (1012) (340) (527) (729) (279) (481) (461) (450) (77)1 - 11th grade 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0High school grad 12 13 11 11 16 14 9 15 17Non-college post H.S. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2Some college 29 30 27 30 25 30 25 30 32College graduate 31 27 32 30 34 31 34 30 31Post-grad 25 27 27 26 23 24 30 23 18(Ph.D) 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 1 3(MD) 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0(MA) 2 3 3 3 1 1 3 2 0(MBA) 2 3 3 2 2 1 3 2 2(JD) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0(DDS) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0(MHP) 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0(Other PG) 18 21 19 18 17 16 20 16 13(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1(Refuse) 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0HS or less 13 14 12 12 18 15 10 16 17Post HS 29 30 28 31 25 30 26 30 34College grad 57 55 59 57 57 55 64 53 49Non College 43 44 40 42 43 45 36 46 50

Page 273

Total ENTHUSIASM GOV VOTE

Page 274: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Gender/AgeTotal answering (1451) (376) (140) (89) (64) (145) (111) (140) (384) (516) (153) (257) (524) (410)Young Women 27 23 37 36 20 34 33 38 19 27 29 34 24 32Young Men 25 17 27 28 48 32 40 23 21 20 36 35 22 36Older Women 26 34 15 20 23 16 17 22 31 29 21 16 29 18Older Men 22 26 21 15 10 18 11 16 29 25 13 15 26 14

White Gender/AgeTotal answering (972) (280) (81) (52) (29) (69) (66) (88) (306) (361) (82) (136) (393) (218)Young Women 22 19 30 34 7 21 28 35 18 21 25 24 22 24Young Men 21 15 26 19 46 26 41 19 18 18 29 33 18 32Older Women 30 37 15 26 34 24 18 27 34 32 29 21 32 24Older Men 26 28 29 21 12 29 14 20 30 28 18 22 28 20

EducationTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)1 - 11th grade 4 3 4 6 6 5 6 6 1 3 6 5 3 6High school grad 14 9 15 21 19 20 15 13 15 10 20 18 15 19Non-college post H.S. 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1Some college 31 25 35 27 35 40 34 35 30 28 30 38 31 35College graduate 28 32 23 27 22 21 30 27 27 30 25 25 27 25Post-grad 21 29 22 16 16 13 13 16 23 27 16 13 21 14(Ph.D) 2 3 1 3 0 2 0 0 1 2 2 1 1 1(MD) 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0(MA) 2 4 2 0 1 0 0 3 2 3 1 0 2 0(MBA) 2 2 4 0 0 2 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 1(JD) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0(DDS) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(MHP) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0(Other PG) 15 20 14 11 15 9 11 11 16 18 13 10 15 11(Don't know) 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1(Refuse) 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1HS or less 18 12 19 27 25 25 21 19 17 14 26 23 17 24Post HS 32 26 36 29 36 40 35 36 31 29 32 38 32 36College grad 49 62 45 43 38 33 43 43 51 57 41 37 49 39Non College 50 38 55 56 61 65 56 55 48 42 58 61 50 60

White EducationTotal answering (1012) (295) (83) (54) (29) (73) (70) (92) (317) (378) (83) (142) (409) (226)1 - 11th grade 1 1 1 0 0 0 2 3 1 1 0 1 1 1High school grad 12 7 14 12 11 18 14 7 17 9 12 16 15 14Non-college post H.S. 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0Some college 29 23 28 28 35 34 30 34 30 24 30 32 31 32College graduate 31 34 27 39 34 29 39 32 27 33 37 34 28 35Post-grad 25 33 30 21 18 18 15 22 23 32 20 17 23 18(Ph.D) 2 3 2 5 0 3 1 0 1 3 3 2 1 3(MD) 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 2 0 1 0 1 0 1(MA) 2 3 2 0 3 0 0 4 2 3 1 0 2 0(MBA) 2 2 7 0 0 3 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 1(JD) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0(DDS) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(MHP) 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 1 1(Other PG) 18 23 18 13 15 12 12 15 16 22 14 12 16 13(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1(Refuse) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0HS or less 13 8 15 12 11 18 16 10 18 10 12 17 16 15Post HS 29 24 28 28 35 34 30 35 31 25 30 32 32 32College grad 57 67 57 60 52 47 54 54 50 65 57 50 51 53Non College 43 32 43 40 45 52 46 45 49 34 42 49 48 47

Page 274

Total BROWN VCS

Page 275: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Gender/AgeTotal answering (1451) (351) (112) (71) (74) (125) (120) (185) (413) (463) (145) (245) (598) (390)Young Women 27 19 40 30 35 25 35 37 23 24 33 30 27 31Young Men 25 20 22 46 33 38 32 26 17 21 39 35 20 37Older Women 26 30 21 15 16 19 20 18 34 28 15 19 29 18Older Men 22 30 17 10 16 18 13 18 26 27 13 16 24 15

White Gender/AgeTotal answering (972) (281) (78) (42) (32) (60) (71) (103) (305) (359) (74) (131) (408) (206)Young Women 22 19 36 23 26 13 34 29 18 23 24 24 21 24Young Men 21 17 19 49 15 39 26 24 16 17 34 32 18 32Older Women 30 33 25 16 30 22 23 21 38 31 22 23 33 23Older Men 26 31 20 12 30 26 17 26 28 29 20 21 27 21

EducationTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)1 - 11th grade 4 1 4 3 3 6 9 6 3 2 3 7 4 6High school grad 14 15 10 15 19 21 18 16 10 14 17 20 12 19Non-college post H.S. 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1Some college 31 29 38 31 43 37 30 35 26 31 37 33 29 35College graduate 28 28 29 31 26 17 29 23 31 28 28 23 29 25Post-grad 21 25 17 17 8 16 12 18 29 23 13 14 25 14(Ph.D) 2 1 0 1 0 2 2 1 2 1 0 2 2 1(MD) 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0(MA) 2 2 4 0 0 1 0 1 3 2 0 0 3 0(MBA) 2 3 1 0 1 1 0 4 2 2 0 0 2 0(JD) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0(DDS) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(MHP) 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0(Other PG) 15 17 12 14 7 13 9 12 19 15 11 11 17 11(Don't know) 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1(Refuse) 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1HS or less 18 16 14 19 23 27 27 23 12 16 21 27 16 25Post HS 32 30 38 32 43 37 31 36 27 32 38 34 30 36College grad 49 53 46 48 34 33 41 41 60 51 41 37 54 39Non College 50 46 52 51 66 64 58 58 40 47 58 61 45 60

White EducationTotal answering (1012) (293) (80) (44) (33) (62) (74) (106) (320) (373) (77) (136) (426) (213)1 - 11th grade 1 1 4 3 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 0 1 1High school grad 12 17 5 9 21 17 11 17 7 15 14 14 9 14Non-college post H.S. 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0Some college 29 29 34 27 34 36 34 29 24 30 30 34 25 33College graduate 31 27 33 41 33 25 39 27 34 28 38 33 32 35Post-grad 25 24 23 20 11 20 16 25 32 24 16 18 31 17(Ph.D) 2 1 0 1 0 4 4 2 3 1 1 4 3 3(MD) 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 1 1(MA) 2 2 4 0 0 1 0 1 3 3 0 1 3 0(MBA) 2 2 1 0 2 0 0 7 2 2 1 0 3 0(JD) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0(DDS) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(MHP) 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 1 0 1 0 1(Other PG) 18 17 15 16 9 15 11 14 23 17 13 13 21 13(Don't know) 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0HS or less 13 18 8 12 21 17 11 18 8 16 16 14 10 15Post HS 29 29 35 27 34 36 34 29 25 31 30 34 26 33College grad 57 52 56 61 45 45 55 52 66 52 54 51 63 52Non College 43 48 43 39 55 53 45 48 33 47 46 48 37 47

Page 275

Total WHITMAN VCS

Page 276: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Brown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

better

Govt back

groundBiz back ground

Brown better

Whit man

better Boxer Fiorina DK/ Ref

Gender/AgeTotal answering (1451) (656) (479) (524) (545) (494) (653) (694) (666) (483) (650) (767) (550) (123)Young Women 27 27 26 27 29 25 27 26 27 22 28 30 20 47Young Men 25 22 28 25 25 22 26 23 28 24 25 25 25 23Older Women 26 28 24 26 25 30 24 29 23 31 24 26 27 14Older Men 22 23 23 22 21 24 23 22 22 24 23 19 28 16

White Gender/AgeTotal answering (972) (438) (346) (325) (406) (307) (470) (480) (439) (320) (473) (489) (423) (54)Young Women 22 19 22 20 27 17 23 22 22 14 25 25 17 44Young Men 21 19 25 21 21 17 23 18 25 21 20 21 21 17Older Women 30 33 27 31 29 36 28 34 27 36 29 32 30 16Older Men 26 29 26 29 23 30 26 27 26 28 26 23 31 22

EducationTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)1 - 11th grade 4 4 2 5 2 5 2 3 4 5 2 5 1 5High school grad 14 11 18 13 14 14 15 13 16 11 15 14 14 19Non-college post H.S. 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2Some college 31 30 31 31 32 28 33 30 31 32 30 28 33 44College graduate 28 28 26 25 29 26 29 28 28 25 29 28 29 17Post-grad 21 26 22 24 21 25 20 24 19 25 23 23 21 13(Ph.D) 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 0(MD) 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0(MA) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 1(MBA) 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 1(JD) 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0(DDS) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(MHP) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0(Other PG) 15 18 15 17 15 18 15 17 13 17 16 16 14 11(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1HS or less 18 15 20 18 16 19 17 16 20 16 16 19 15 24Post HS 32 30 31 32 32 29 33 31 32 33 31 28 34 46College grad 49 54 48 49 50 51 49 52 47 50 52 52 50 30Non College 50 45 51 50 49 48 50 47 52 49 47 48 49 69

White EducationTotal answering (1012) (455) (360) (336) (420) (318) (488) (499) (458) (333) (492) (508) (440) (59)1 - 11th grade 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1High school grad 12 8 16 10 13 11 14 11 14 8 14 10 14 16Non-college post H.S. 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2Some college 29 26 32 28 31 24 32 27 30 30 29 25 31 35College graduate 31 33 26 30 29 31 30 32 31 30 29 33 31 26Post-grad 25 31 24 29 24 31 22 28 22 30 25 29 22 19(Ph.D) 2 3 1 2 1 2 1 3 1 2 1 3 1 0(MD) 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0(MA) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 0(MBA) 2 3 2 3 2 3 1 3 1 3 2 3 2 0(JD) 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0(DDS) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(MHP) 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0(Other PG) 18 22 17 21 17 22 17 19 16 21 18 20 15 19(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0HS or less 13 9 18 11 14 12 15 12 15 9 15 12 15 17Post HS 29 27 32 29 31 25 32 27 31 30 30 26 32 38College grad 57 64 50 59 54 62 52 61 53 60 55 62 53 45Non College 43 36 50 41 46 37 47 39 46 40 45 37 47 55

Page 276

ENERGY BCKGRND ECONOMY SEN VOTETotal UNDERSTAND CLEAR PLAN

Page 277: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Gender/AgeTotal answering (1451) (377) (163) (119) (108) (84) (76) (100) (424) (540) (227) (159) (524) (386)Young Women 27 22 35 31 45 31 44 40 16 26 38 37 21 38Young Men 25 20 27 35 27 36 22 27 23 22 31 29 24 30Older Women 26 33 21 21 19 17 24 18 28 29 20 21 26 20Older Men 22 25 17 13 9 16 10 15 33 22 11 13 30 12

White Gender/AgeTotal answering (972) (266) (100) (69) (54) (39) (43) (59) (341) (366) (123) (82) (401) (206)Young Women 22 19 25 28 49 31 40 32 14 21 37 36 17 37Young Men 21 17 23 35 17 24 14 28 21 18 27 19 22 24Older Women 30 38 27 22 22 24 38 16 31 35 22 31 28 26Older Men 26 27 25 15 12 20 8 24 35 26 13 14 33 13

EducationTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)1 - 11th grade 4 3 6 9 7 3 6 3 1 4 8 4 1 7High school grad 14 9 15 17 23 23 11 15 14 11 20 18 14 19Non-college post H.S. 1 1 0 0 2 2 4 0 1 1 1 3 0 2Some college 31 22 31 40 30 43 41 35 32 25 35 42 33 38College graduate 28 30 26 24 28 20 21 28 29 29 26 20 29 24Post-grad 21 33 20 9 10 9 17 18 22 29 9 12 21 11(Ph.D) 2 3 2 1 3 0 1 0 1 2 2 0 1 1(MD) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0(MA) 2 4 0 0 0 0 2 0 3 3 0 1 2 0(MBA) 2 2 4 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 0 0 2 0(JD) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0(DDS) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(MHP) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 1 0(Other PG) 15 22 14 7 7 8 14 13 15 20 7 11 15 9(Don't know) 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0HS or less 18 13 22 27 30 26 17 17 15 15 28 22 15 26Post HS 32 23 31 40 32 45 44 35 33 25 36 45 33 40College grad 49 64 46 33 38 28 38 46 51 58 35 33 50 34Non College 50 36 52 66 62 71 61 53 47 41 64 67 48 65

White EducationTotal answering (1012) (278) (102) (71) (56) (43) (45) (62) (354) (381) (127) (88) (416) (215)1 - 11th grade 1 1 1 0 5 2 3 0 0 1 2 2 0 2High school grad 12 6 11 13 25 16 10 13 15 8 18 13 15 16Non-college post H.S. 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 1 1 0 2 1 1Some college 29 19 29 39 30 36 40 28 31 22 35 38 31 36College graduate 31 33 34 34 28 33 22 39 29 33 31 27 31 30Post-grad 25 40 23 14 11 10 26 20 22 35 12 18 22 15(Ph.D) 2 3 3 2 5 0 1 0 1 3 3 1 1 2(MD) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0(MA) 2 4 1 0 0 0 2 0 3 3 0 1 2 0(MBA) 2 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 0 0 2 0(JD) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0(DDS) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(MHP) 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 5 0 1 0 1 1 0(Other PG) 18 27 13 12 5 9 23 15 15 24 9 16 15 12(Don't know) 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0HS or less 13 7 12 13 31 18 13 13 15 9 21 15 15 19Post HS 29 20 29 39 30 39 40 28 32 22 35 39 31 37College grad 57 72 57 48 38 43 47 59 52 68 44 45 53 44Non College 43 27 42 52 61 57 53 41 48 31 56 55 47 56

Page 277

Total BOXER VCS

Page 278: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Gender/AgeTotal answering (1451) (400) (71) (54) (172) (146) (189) (394) (471) (79) (318) (583) (396)Young Women 27 16 31 32 42 38 37 22 18 29 40 27 38Young Men 25 22 30 30 28 30 27 21 23 35 29 23 30Older Women 26 29 19 30 18 19 19 33 27 27 18 28 20Older Men 22 33 20 8 12 13 17 25 31 9 12 22 12

White Gender/AgeTotal answering (972) (331) (47) (31) (82) (84) (110) (273) (378) (45) (166) (383) (211)Young Women 22 14 28 27 44 37 25 18 16 27 41 20 38Young Men 21 20 30 20 20 29 24 17 22 19 24 19 23Older Women 30 31 15 48 22 20 25 38 29 45 21 34 26Older Men 26 35 28 6 14 14 27 27 34 9 14 27 13

EducationTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)1 - 11th grade 4 1 0 4 6 9 7 3 1 4 7 4 6High school grad 14 14 13 10 22 16 15 10 14 15 20 12 19Non-college post H.S. 1 1 0 4 2 0 0 1 1 3 1 1 2Some college 31 31 33 44 35 39 34 23 31 43 37 27 38College graduate 28 30 34 19 25 25 23 30 30 20 25 28 24Post-grad 21 23 18 18 9 10 20 32 22 14 10 28 11(Ph.D) 2 1 0 1 2 1 1 3 1 1 1 2 1(MD) 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0(MA) 2 3 0 1 0 1 0 4 2 1 0 3 0(MBA) 2 2 0 0 0 0 4 2 2 0 0 3 0(JD) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0(DDS) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0(MHP) 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0(Other PG) 15 15 13 16 8 9 14 22 15 11 8 19 9(Don't know) 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0(Refuse) 1 1 2 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0HS or less 18 15 14 14 28 25 22 13 15 19 27 16 25Post HS 32 31 33 48 37 39 34 24 32 46 38 27 39College grad 49 53 52 37 34 35 43 62 53 34 35 56 35Non College 50 46 47 62 65 64 56 37 46 65 65 43 65

White EducationTotal answering (1012) (343) (50) (33) (87) (86) (113) (287) (393) (47) (173) (400) (220)1 - 11th grade 1 0 0 2 3 1 1 1 0 3 2 1 2High school grad 12 15 11 11 23 12 12 6 15 11 17 8 16Non-college post H.S. 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1Some college 29 31 31 37 33 37 30 20 31 38 35 23 36College graduate 31 30 42 21 28 35 31 32 31 25 32 32 30Post-grad 25 23 16 29 10 15 24 39 22 22 13 35 15(Ph.D) 2 1 0 1 3 1 2 3 1 1 2 3 2(MD) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0(MA) 2 3 0 3 0 0 1 4 3 2 0 3 0(MBA) 2 2 0 0 0 0 5 3 2 0 0 4 0(JD) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0(DDS) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0(MHP) 1 0 6 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0(Other PG) 18 15 10 25 6 14 16 27 14 18 10 24 12(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0HS or less 13 16 11 13 26 12 13 7 15 14 19 9 18Post HS 29 31 31 37 35 37 30 21 31 38 36 23 36College grad 57 52 58 50 38 50 55 71 53 48 44 67 45Non College 43 47 42 50 61 50 43 28 46 52 55 32 55

Page 278

Total FIORINA VCS

Page 279: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Support Obama

Oppose Obama

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better Favor Oppose

Impor tant

Not Impor tant

Gender/AgeTotal answering (1451) (857) (432) (543) (509) (627) (426) (548) (459) (573) (555) (1086) (356)Young Women 27 30 22 28 23 29 19 27 18 26 27 31 15Young Men 25 27 24 24 22 23 25 23 24 30 25 24 27Older Women 26 24 26 29 26 28 25 28 28 21 25 25 28Older Men 22 19 27 20 28 21 31 22 29 24 24 20 30

White Gender/AgeTotal answering (972) (519) (338) (332) (391) (410) (325) (358) (355) (379) (394) (691) (276)Young Women 22 24 20 23 20 24 16 23 15 22 24 25 14Young Men 21 23 21 19 20 19 21 19 21 25 19 20 24Older Women 30 29 29 35 29 33 28 32 31 24 30 30 29Older Men 26 24 30 23 31 24 35 26 33 29 27 24 32

EducationTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)1 - 11th grade 4 5 2 6 1 5 1 5 1 3 4 5 1High school grad 14 13 15 14 15 12 15 12 15 17 11 14 16Non-college post H.S. 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Some college 31 30 33 27 32 26 31 27 30 35 25 31 32College graduate 28 27 28 27 28 29 29 29 31 26 32 27 28Post-grad 21 23 20 25 22 26 22 26 22 18 27 22 21(Ph.D) 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 1(MD) 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0(MA) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2(MBA) 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 1(JD) 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1(DDS) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(MHP) 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0(Other PG) 15 16 14 17 16 18 16 18 14 12 18 15 15(Don't know) 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1HS or less 18 18 17 20 16 17 16 17 16 19 15 18 17Post HS 32 31 34 27 33 26 32 28 31 35 25 32 33College grad 49 50 48 52 50 55 51 54 52 44 59 49 49Non College 50 49 50 47 49 44 48 45 47 55 40 50 50

White EducationTotal answering (1012) (537) (351) (341) (407) (422) (339) (371) (368) (390) (412) (721) (286)1 - 11th grade 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0High school grad 12 10 16 9 16 8 16 9 16 13 10 10 17Non-college post H.S. 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1Some college 29 26 33 24 30 24 28 24 27 38 19 27 32College graduate 31 32 30 31 29 33 30 32 32 27 37 32 30Post-grad 25 30 19 33 24 32 24 32 23 21 32 28 20(Ph.D) 2 3 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 2 2 2 1(MD) 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0(MA) 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 1 3 2 2(MBA) 2 3 1 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 1(JD) 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1(DDS) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(MHP) 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0(Other PG) 18 21 14 23 17 23 17 23 16 14 22 19 15(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0HS or less 13 11 17 10 16 10 16 10 16 13 11 12 17Post HS 29 27 33 25 30 25 29 25 28 38 20 28 32College grad 57 62 49 64 53 65 54 64 55 48 69 59 50Non College 43 37 50 35 46 34 45 35 44 51 31 40 50

Page 279

SHARE VALUES JOBS ECON PROP 23 GW IMPTTotal SENTYPE CHANGE

Page 280: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

White Black Latino Asian Men Women Men Women Men Women

Gender/AgeTotal answering (1451) (972) (71) (282) (64) (683) (767) (461) (511) (125) (156)Young Women 27 22 37 40 43 0 51 0 42 0 73Young Men 25 21 36 33 39 53 0 44 0 73 0Older Women 26 30 14 15 12 0 49 0 58 0 27Older Men 22 26 13 12 7 47 0 56 0 27 0

White Gender/AgeTotal answering (972) (972) (6) (6) (0) (461) (511) (461) (511) (2) (4)Young Women 22 22 0 27 0 0 42 0 42 0 41Young Men 21 21 85 33 0 44 0 44 0 100 0Older Women 30 30 0 40 0 0 58 0 58 0 59Older Men 26 26 15 0 0 56 0 56 0 0 0

EducationTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)1 - 11th grade 4 1 0 14 0 3 5 0 2 12 15High school grad 14 12 20 21 9 14 14 12 13 24 19Non-college post H.S. 1 1 0 2 0 1 1 1 0 1 2Some college 31 29 37 39 24 31 31 29 29 37 40College graduate 28 31 29 15 39 30 26 35 28 16 14Post-grad 21 25 14 9 27 21 22 23 27 8 9(Ph.D) 2 2 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 1 0(MD) 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0(MA) 2 2 2 1 3 1 2 2 3 0 2(MBA) 2 2 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1(JD) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(DDS) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(MHP) 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0(Other PG) 15 18 12 5 22 15 15 16 19 6 5(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0HS or less 18 13 20 35 9 17 19 12 14 37 34Post HS 32 29 37 40 24 32 32 30 29 38 42College grad 49 57 43 24 65 50 48 58 56 25 23Non College 50 43 57 76 33 49 51 42 44 75 76

White EducationTotal answering (1012) (1012) (6) (6) (0) (479) (533) (479) (533) (2) (4)1 - 11th grade 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 0High school grad 12 12 0 0 0 12 13 12 13 0 0Non-college post H.S. 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0Some college 29 29 0 55 0 29 29 29 29 0 83College graduate 31 31 100 33 0 35 28 35 28 100 0Post-grad 25 25 0 12 0 23 27 23 27 0 17(Ph.D) 2 2 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 0 0(MD) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0(MA) 2 2 0 0 0 2 3 2 3 0 0(MBA) 2 2 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 0 0(JD) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(DDS) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(MHP) 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0(Other PG) 18 18 0 12 0 16 19 16 19 0 17(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0HS or less 13 13 0 0 0 12 14 12 14 0 0Post HS 29 29 0 55 0 30 29 30 29 0 83College grad 57 57 100 45 0 58 56 58 56 100 17Non College 43 43 0 55 0 42 44 42 44 0 83

Page 280

WHT GEN LAT GENTotal RACE GENDER

Page 281: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over

Gender/AgeTotal answering (1451) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Young Women 27 51 50 56 0 0 52 0Young Men 25 49 50 44 0 0 48 0Older Women 26 0 0 0 50 59 0 54Older Men 22 0 0 0 50 41 0 46

White Gender/AgeTotal answering (972) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551)Young Women 22 48 43 61 0 0 52 0Young Men 21 52 57 39 0 0 48 0Older Women 30 0 0 0 49 59 0 53Older Men 26 0 0 0 51 41 0 47

EducationTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)1 - 11th grade 4 2 3 4 4 6 3 4High school grad 14 17 10 13 13 18 14 15Non-college post H.S. 1 1 0 1 0 2 1 1Some college 31 57 26 23 27 26 35 27College graduate 28 18 32 34 30 25 28 28Post-grad 21 5 29 24 26 22 19 24(Ph.D) 2 0 2 2 2 2 1 2(MD) 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0(MA) 2 0 4 3 2 1 2 1(MBA) 2 1 1 2 3 2 1 3(JD) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0(DDS) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0(MHP) 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1(Other PG) 15 4 21 15 19 15 13 17(Don't know) 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0(Refuse) 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0HS or less 18 19 13 17 16 24 17 19Post HS 32 58 26 24 28 27 36 28College grad 49 23 60 58 56 47 47 52Non College 50 77 39 41 44 51 53 47

White EducationTotal answering (1012) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551)1 - 11th grade 1 3 0 0 0 3 1 1High school grad 12 12 6 10 12 18 9 14Non-college post H.S. 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 1Some college 29 54 27 19 28 25 31 27College graduate 31 25 32 41 32 27 34 30Post-grad 25 6 35 28 27 24 25 26(Ph.D) 2 0 2 3 1 2 2 2(MD) 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0(MA) 2 0 4 4 2 1 3 1(MBA) 2 1 1 2 3 2 2 3(JD) 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0(DDS) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0(MHP) 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1(Other PG) 18 5 26 16 20 17 16 19(Don't know) 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0HS or less 13 15 6 10 12 21 10 16Post HS 29 54 27 20 28 27 31 28College grad 57 31 67 69 60 51 59 56Non College 43 69 33 31 40 48 41 43

Page 281

Total AGE

Page 282: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over 18-29 30-4950 and

over 18-4950 and

over

Gender/AgeTotal answering (1451) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Young Women 27 48 43 61 0 0 52 0 55 55 0 55 0Young Men 25 52 57 39 0 0 48 0 45 45 0 45 0Older Women 26 0 0 0 49 59 0 53 0 0 56 0 56Older Men 22 0 0 0 51 41 0 47 0 0 44 0 44

White Gender/AgeTotal answering (972) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (2) (2) (2) (4) (2)Young Women 22 48 43 61 0 0 52 0 100 0 0 45 0Young Men 21 52 57 39 0 0 48 0 0 100 0 55 0Older Women 30 0 0 0 49 59 0 53 0 0 100 0 100Older Men 26 0 0 0 51 41 0 47 0 0 0 0 0

EducationTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)1 - 11th grade 4 3 0 0 0 3 1 1 2 16 25 8 25High school grad 14 12 6 10 12 18 9 14 23 21 20 22 20Non-college post H.S. 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 1 3 0 1 2 1Some college 31 54 27 19 28 25 31 27 58 27 28 44 28College graduate 28 25 32 41 32 27 34 30 10 23 14 16 14Post-grad 21 6 35 28 27 24 25 26 3 13 12 7 12(Ph.D) 2 0 2 3 1 2 2 2 0 0 2 0 2(MD) 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0(MA) 2 0 4 4 2 1 3 1 0 2 1 1 1(MBA) 2 1 1 2 3 2 2 3 1 2 2 1 2(JD) 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1(DDS) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(MHP) 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1(Other PG) 15 5 26 16 20 17 16 19 2 8 6 5 6(Don't know) 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0(Refuse) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1HS or less 18 15 6 10 12 21 10 16 26 37 45 31 45Post HS 32 54 27 20 28 27 31 28 61 27 29 45 29College grad 49 31 67 69 60 51 59 56 13 35 26 23 26Non College 50 69 33 31 40 48 41 43 87 64 74 76 74

White EducationTotal answering (1012) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (2) (2) (2) (4) (2)1 - 11th grade 1 3 0 0 0 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0High school grad 12 12 6 10 12 18 9 14 0 0 0 0 0Non-college post H.S. 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0Some college 29 54 27 19 28 25 31 27 100 0 71 45 71College graduate 31 25 32 41 32 27 34 30 0 100 0 55 0Post-grad 25 6 35 28 27 24 25 26 0 0 29 0 29(Ph.D) 2 0 2 3 1 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0(MD) 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0(MA) 2 0 4 4 2 1 3 1 0 0 0 0 0(MBA) 2 1 1 2 3 2 2 3 0 0 0 0 0(JD) 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0(DDS) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(MHP) 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0(Other PG) 18 5 26 16 20 17 16 19 0 0 29 0 29(Don't know) 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0HS or less 13 15 6 10 12 21 10 16 0 0 0 0 0Post HS 29 54 27 20 28 27 31 28 100 0 71 45 71College grad 57 31 67 69 60 51 59 56 0 100 29 55 29Non College 43 69 33 31 40 48 41 43 100 0 71 45 71

Page 282

Total WHT AGE LAT AGE

Page 283: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Young Women

Young Men

Older Women

Older Men

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Gender/AgeTotal answering (1451) (395) (360) (372) (323) (260) (464) (405) (313) (724) (718)Young Women 27 100 0 0 0 25 30 26 27 28 27Young Men 25 0 100 0 0 23 29 26 19 27 23Older Women 26 0 0 100 0 31 23 24 28 26 26Older Men 22 0 0 0 100 21 18 24 26 19 25

White Gender/AgeTotal answering (972) (217) (204) (294) (257) (128) (283) (308) (248) (412) (556)Young Women 22 100 0 0 0 18 21 22 27 20 24Young Men 21 0 100 0 0 15 25 24 15 22 20Older Women 30 0 0 100 0 38 31 26 30 33 28Older Men 26 0 0 0 100 29 23 28 28 25 28

EducationTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)1 - 11th grade 4 4 2 6 3 21 0 0 0 8 0High school grad 14 13 14 16 14 79 0 0 0 28 0Non-college post H.S. 1 1 1 1 1 0 3 0 0 2 0Some college 31 34 37 28 26 0 97 0 0 62 0College graduate 28 27 29 26 31 0 0 100 0 0 56Post-grad 21 21 17 24 25 0 0 0 100 0 44(Ph.D) 2 2 1 2 2 0 0 0 7 0 3(MD) 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 1(MA) 2 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 9 0 4(MBA) 2 1 1 3 2 0 0 0 8 0 4(JD) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0(DDS) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0(MHP) 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 1(Other PG) 15 14 12 16 18 0 0 0 69 0 30(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0HS or less 18 16 17 22 17 100 0 0 0 36 0Post HS 32 35 37 28 27 0 100 0 0 64 0College grad 49 48 45 49 56 0 0 100 100 0 100Non College 50 51 54 50 44 100 100 0 0 100 0

White EducationTotal answering (1012) (217) (204) (294) (257) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575)1 - 11th grade 1 1 0 2 0 8 0 0 0 2 0High school grad 12 9 9 14 14 92 0 0 0 29 0Non-college post H.S. 1 0 1 1 1 0 2 0 0 2 0Some college 29 27 34 29 24 0 98 0 0 67 0College graduate 31 31 37 27 33 0 0 100 0 0 55Post-grad 25 31 18 26 27 0 0 0 100 0 45(Ph.D) 2 2 1 2 2 0 0 0 7 0 3(MD) 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1(MA) 2 5 2 2 1 0 0 0 8 0 4(MBA) 2 1 2 3 3 0 0 0 8 0 4(JD) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1(DDS) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0(MHP) 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 1(Other PG) 18 21 12 18 20 0 0 0 69 0 31(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0HS or less 13 10 9 17 14 100 0 0 0 31 0Post HS 29 27 35 30 25 0 100 0 0 69 0College grad 57 62 55 52 60 0 0 100 100 0 100Non College 43 37 45 47 39 100 100 0 0 100 0

Page 283

Total GENDER/AGE EDUCATION

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Non College College

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Gender/AgeTotal answering (1451) (128) (283) (308) (248) (412) (556) (213) (68) (336) (344) (387) (374)Young Women 27 18 21 22 27 20 24 40 40 0 0 52 51Young Men 25 15 25 24 15 22 20 33 31 58 48 0 0Older Women 26 38 31 26 30 33 28 16 14 0 0 48 49Older Men 22 29 23 28 28 25 28 11 15 42 52 0 0

White Gender/AgeTotal answering (972) (128) (283) (308) (248) (412) (556) (3) (3) (193) (267) (219) (289)Young Women 22 18 21 22 27 20 24 49 0 0 0 37 47Young Men 21 15 25 24 15 22 20 0 74 47 42 0 0Older Women 30 38 31 26 30 33 28 51 26 0 0 63 53Older Men 26 29 23 28 28 25 28 0 0 53 58 0 0

EducationTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)1 - 11th grade 4 8 0 0 0 2 0 18 0 5 0 9 0High school grad 14 92 0 0 0 29 0 28 0 29 0 28 0Non-college post H.S. 1 0 2 0 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 1 0Some college 31 0 98 0 0 67 0 51 0 64 0 61 0College graduate 28 0 0 100 0 0 55 0 64 0 59 0 54Post-grad 21 0 0 0 100 0 45 0 36 0 41 0 46(Ph.D) 2 0 0 0 7 0 3 0 2 0 3 0 3(MD) 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1(MA) 2 0 0 0 8 0 4 0 5 0 3 0 5(MBA) 2 0 0 0 8 0 4 0 5 0 4 0 3(JD) 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1(DDS) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(MHP) 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1(Other PG) 15 0 0 0 69 0 31 0 22 0 29 0 31(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0HS or less 18 100 0 0 0 31 0 47 0 34 0 37 0Post HS 32 0 100 0 0 69 0 53 0 66 0 63 0College grad 49 0 0 100 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100Non College 50 100 100 0 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 0

White EducationTotal answering (1012) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (3) (3) (200) (278) (232) (297)1 - 11th grade 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 4 0High school grad 12 92 0 0 0 29 0 0 0 29 0 29 0Non-college post H.S. 1 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0Some college 29 0 98 0 0 67 0 100 0 69 0 66 0College graduate 31 0 0 100 0 0 55 0 74 0 60 0 51Post-grad 25 0 0 0 100 0 45 0 26 0 40 0 49(Ph.D) 2 0 0 0 7 0 3 0 0 0 3 0 4(MD) 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0(MA) 2 0 0 0 8 0 4 0 0 0 3 0 5(MBA) 2 0 0 0 8 0 4 0 0 0 4 0 4(JD) 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1(DDS) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1(MHP) 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2(Other PG) 18 0 0 0 69 0 31 0 26 0 28 0 34(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0HS or less 13 100 0 0 0 31 0 0 0 29 0 33 0Post HS 29 0 100 0 0 69 0 100 0 71 0 67 0College grad 57 0 0 100 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100Non College 43 100 100 0 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 0

Page 284

GENDER/EDUCTotal WHT EDUC LAT EDUC

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Gender/AgeTotal answering (1451) (193) (267) (219) (289) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Young Women 27 0 0 37 47 51 54 0 0 47 55 0 0Young Men 25 47 42 0 0 49 46 0 0 53 45 0 0Older Women 26 0 0 63 53 0 0 57 50 0 0 58 50Older Men 22 53 58 0 0 0 0 43 50 0 0 42 50

White Gender/AgeTotal answering (972) (193) (267) (219) (289) (172) (248) (239) (309) (172) (248) (239) (309)Young Women 22 0 0 37 47 47 55 0 0 47 55 0 0Young Men 21 47 42 0 0 53 45 0 0 53 45 0 0Older Women 30 0 0 63 53 0 0 58 50 0 0 58 50Older Men 26 53 58 0 0 0 0 42 50 0 0 42 50

EducationTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)1 - 11th grade 4 0 0 4 0 6 0 9 0 2 0 3 0High school grad 14 29 0 29 0 26 0 32 0 23 0 33 0Non-college post H.S. 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 2 0Some college 31 69 0 66 0 67 0 57 0 75 0 62 0College graduate 28 0 60 0 51 0 59 0 53 0 58 0 53Post-grad 21 0 40 0 49 0 41 0 47 0 42 0 47(Ph.D) 2 0 3 0 4 0 2 0 3 0 3 0 3(MD) 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1(MA) 2 0 3 0 5 0 5 0 3 0 6 0 3(MBA) 2 0 4 0 4 0 3 0 5 0 3 0 5(JD) 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0(DDS) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1(MHP) 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1(Other PG) 15 0 28 0 34 0 28 0 33 0 28 0 33(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0HS or less 18 29 0 33 0 31 0 41 0 24 0 36 0Post HS 32 71 0 67 0 69 0 59 0 76 0 64 0College grad 49 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100Non College 50 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 0

White EducationTotal answering (1012) (200) (278) (232) (297) (172) (248) (239) (309) (172) (248) (239) (309)1 - 11th grade 1 0 0 4 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 3 0High school grad 12 29 0 29 0 23 0 33 0 23 0 33 0Non-college post H.S. 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 2 0Some college 29 69 0 66 0 75 0 62 0 75 0 62 0College graduate 31 0 60 0 51 0 58 0 53 0 58 0 53Post-grad 25 0 40 0 49 0 42 0 47 0 42 0 47(Ph.D) 2 0 3 0 4 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3(MD) 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1(MA) 2 0 3 0 5 0 6 0 3 0 6 0 3(MBA) 2 0 4 0 4 0 3 0 5 0 3 0 5(JD) 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0(DDS) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1(MHP) 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1(Other PG) 18 0 28 0 34 0 28 0 33 0 28 0 33(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0HS or less 13 29 0 33 0 24 0 36 0 24 0 36 0Post HS 29 71 0 67 0 76 0 64 0 76 0 64 0College grad 57 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100Non College 43 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 0

Page 285

Total WHT GEN/EDUC AGE/EDUC WHT AGE/EDUC

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

MemberHhold

memberNo

memberTotal Union Member

Hhold member

No member

Total Union Member

No member

Total Union

Gender/AgeTotal answering (1451) (169) (86) (1121) (313) (117) (54) (758) (206) (52) (363) (107)Young Women 27 20 30 28 25 17 25 22 22 27 39 31Young Men 25 31 34 24 29 28 33 19 26 38 33 33Older Women 26 25 19 26 24 29 23 31 28 16 16 16Older Men 22 24 16 23 22 27 19 28 23 18 12 19

White Gender/AgeTotal answering (972) (117) (54) (758) (206) (117) (54) (758) (206) (0) (0) (0)Young Women 22 17 25 22 22 17 25 22 22 0 0 0Young Men 21 28 33 19 26 28 33 19 26 0 0 0Older Women 30 29 23 31 28 29 23 31 28 0 0 0Older Men 26 27 19 28 23 27 19 28 23 0 0 0

EducationTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)1 - 11th grade 4 1 3 4 2 0 3 1 1 3 11 5High school grad 14 8 11 15 9 5 9 14 7 13 20 12Non-college post H.S. 1 3 0 1 2 2 0 0 1 4 1 2Some college 31 33 50 30 34 29 42 28 29 41 34 44College graduate 28 23 23 28 27 22 32 32 30 27 20 21Post-grad 21 31 11 20 26 41 14 24 32 10 14 14(Ph.D) 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0(MD) 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0(MA) 2 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 3 2 1 3(MBA) 2 3 0 2 2 4 0 2 2 0 1 0(JD) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(DDS) 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0(MHP) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0(Other PG) 15 25 9 14 20 33 10 16 25 8 9 10(Don't know) 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1HS or less 18 8 15 20 11 5 12 15 8 15 30 18Post HS 32 36 50 31 36 32 42 29 31 45 35 46College grad 49 55 35 49 52 63 46 56 62 37 33 34Non College 50 45 65 51 47 37 54 43 38 61 66 64

White EducationTotal answering (1012) (121) (56) (787) (215) (121) (56) (787) (215) (0) (0) (0)1 - 11th grade 1 0 3 1 1 0 3 1 1 0 0 0High school grad 12 5 9 14 7 5 9 14 7 0 0 0Non-college post H.S. 1 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 0Some college 29 29 42 28 29 29 42 28 29 0 0 0College graduate 31 22 32 32 30 22 32 32 30 0 0 0Post-grad 25 41 14 24 32 41 14 24 32 0 0 0(Ph.D) 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0(MD) 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0(MA) 2 2 4 2 3 2 4 2 3 0 0 0(MBA) 2 4 0 2 2 4 0 2 2 0 0 0(JD) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(DDS) 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0(MHP) 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0(Other PG) 18 33 10 16 25 33 10 16 25 0 0 0(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0HS or less 13 5 12 15 8 5 12 15 8 0 0 0Post HS 29 32 42 29 31 32 42 29 31 0 0 0College grad 57 63 46 56 62 63 46 56 62 0 0 0Non College 43 37 54 43 38 37 54 43 38 0 0 0

Page 286

NONWT UNIONTotal UNION WHT UNION

Page 287: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Married Single

Sep Divor ced

Wid owed

Sep Div Wid

Unmarr ied

Married Women

Unmarr ied

WomenMarried

MenUnmarr ied Men

Voted in person

Voted by mail

Gender/AgeTotal answering (1451) (836) (377) (137) (85) (222) (598) (421) (336) (415) (263) (688) (581)Young Women 27 25 41 17 2 11 30 50 53 0 0 28 23Young Men 25 22 43 11 1 7 29 0 0 44 67 29 16Older Women 26 25 9 48 71 56 26 50 47 0 0 22 34Older Men 22 28 8 25 26 25 15 0 0 56 33 20 27

White Gender/AgeTotal answering (972) (590) (207) (102) (66) (167) (374) (290) (214) (301) (160) (439) (443)Young Women 22 22 36 11 0 7 23 44 40 0 0 22 20Young Men 21 20 39 5 0 3 23 0 0 39 54 26 14Older Women 30 27 13 55 73 62 35 56 60 0 0 27 37Older Men 26 31 12 29 27 28 19 0 0 61 46 25 30

EducationTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)1 - 11th grade 4 4 3 5 8 6 4 4 6 3 2 4 3High school grad 14 13 17 11 19 14 16 13 16 13 16 13 13Non-college post H.S. 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0Some college 31 25 44 33 33 33 40 26 38 24 42 32 28College graduate 28 31 24 21 25 22 24 28 24 34 23 28 30Post-grad 21 26 11 29 11 22 15 27 15 25 15 21 24(Ph.D) 2 2 0 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 2(MD) 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0(MA) 2 2 2 1 0 1 2 3 2 2 1 2 2(MBA) 2 3 0 2 1 2 1 3 1 2 1 2 2(JD) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0(DDS) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(MHP) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1(Other PG) 15 18 8 22 7 16 11 18 10 17 11 14 18(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1(Refuse) 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1HS or less 18 17 20 17 27 21 20 18 21 16 19 17 15Post HS 32 26 45 34 35 34 41 27 39 25 43 33 29College grad 49 57 35 50 36 44 39 55 39 58 38 49 54Non College 50 43 64 50 63 55 61 44 61 41 61 50 44

White EducationTotal answering (1012) (610) (218) (105) (69) (174) (392) (300) (224) (310) (168) (458) (461)1 - 11th grade 1 0 2 1 6 3 2 0 4 0 0 1 1High school grad 12 11 15 10 21 14 15 11 15 11 15 11 13Non-college post H.S. 1 1 0 1 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1Some college 29 25 38 31 32 31 35 27 32 23 40 28 28College graduate 31 33 32 23 26 24 28 28 28 38 28 34 31Post-grad 25 30 13 35 11 25 19 32 21 27 16 25 27(Ph.D) 2 2 0 2 3 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 2(MD) 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0(MA) 2 2 3 1 0 1 2 3 3 2 1 3 2(MBA) 2 3 0 3 1 2 1 3 1 3 1 3 2(JD) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0(DDS) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0(MHP) 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1(Other PG) 18 20 9 27 6 19 13 22 15 19 12 17 19(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0HS or less 13 11 17 11 27 17 17 12 19 11 15 12 13Post HS 29 25 38 32 34 33 36 27 32 24 41 28 29College grad 57 63 45 58 37 50 47 61 49 65 44 60 57Non College 43 36 55 42 61 50 53 39 51 34 56 40 42

Page 287

Total MARITAL MARITAL/GENDER 2008

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Voted in person

Voted by mail A B Cell Landline Base Latino

Gender/AgeTotal answering (1451) (518) (384) (735) (716) (178) (1273) (1127) (324)Young Women 27 22 18 27 27 40 26 24 39Young Men 25 21 15 27 23 45 22 23 32Older Women 26 30 36 22 29 8 28 28 16Older Men 22 27 31 24 21 7 24 25 13

White Gender/AgeTotal answering (972) (364) (305) (486) (486) (133) (839) (917) (55)Young Women 22 18 15 22 22 38 20 22 34Young Men 21 18 14 23 19 45 17 21 21Older Women 30 34 38 27 34 9 34 30 30Older Men 26 30 34 28 25 8 29 27 15

EducationTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)1 - 11th grade 4 3 3 4 3 0 4 1 15High school grad 14 12 12 15 13 9 15 12 23Non-college post H.S. 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1Some college 31 27 25 31 32 35 31 29 39College graduate 28 32 29 29 26 30 27 31 14Post-grad 21 23 30 19 24 24 21 25 7(Ph.D) 2 1 2 0 3 2 1 2 0(MD) 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0(MA) 2 2 4 1 3 3 2 2 1(MBA) 2 2 3 2 2 0 2 2 1(JD) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(DDS) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(MHP) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0(Other PG) 15 17 21 14 15 18 14 18 4(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1HS or less 18 15 14 19 17 9 19 13 38Post HS 32 29 26 31 33 35 32 30 40College grad 49 55 59 48 50 55 48 57 21Non College 50 44 40 51 49 45 51 42 78

White EducationTotal answering (1012) (380) (316) (504) (508) (135) (877) (957) (55)1 - 11th grade 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 6High school grad 12 12 11 14 10 9 13 12 19Non-college post H.S. 1 2 0 1 1 0 1 1 0Some college 29 24 25 29 28 36 27 28 39College graduate 31 36 29 33 30 31 31 32 20Post-grad 25 25 33 22 29 24 26 26 14(Ph.D) 2 1 2 0 3 3 2 2 1(MD) 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0(MA) 2 2 4 1 3 2 2 2 0(MBA) 2 2 2 2 2 0 2 2 4(JD) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(DDS) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(MHP) 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0(Other PG) 18 18 23 17 19 18 18 18 10(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0HS or less 13 13 12 16 11 9 14 13 25Post HS 29 26 25 29 29 36 28 29 39College grad 57 61 62 55 59 55 57 58 35Non College 43 39 38 45 40 45 42 41 64

Page 288

PHONE SAMPLETotal 2006 SPLIT

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LIKELY

Likely Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS

Reg Rep Not ID Rep

Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Mod erate

Conser vative

Latino EducationTotal answering (287) (122) (154) (82) (44) (165) (64) (49) (33) (37) (86) (103) (84)Non College 76 62 80 72 66 81 66 73 75 85 81 70 76College grad 24 38 20 28 33 18 33 27 24 13 19 29 24

Gender/EducationTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Non College Men 23 20 22 25 24 22 23 24 26 21 23 21 24College Men 24 27 21 26 26 21 26 25 21 23 24 25 23Non College Women 27 23 29 23 27 29 27 24 28 29 23 25 31College Women 25 30 28 25 22 27 22 27 22 26 30 27 21

White Gender/EducationTotal answering (1006) (615) (401) (294) (309) (413) (371) (186) (99) (83) (267) (408) (313)Non College Men 20 18 17 22 22 17 22 19 23 13 17 20 21College Men 28 30 26 30 28 27 28 27 26 35 29 28 26Non College Women 23 21 21 21 27 21 26 21 25 23 17 22 30College Women 30 32 36 27 23 34 24 33 26 29 37 30 23

Age/EducationTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Young Non College 26 16 28 25 23 27 21 32 24 26 30 25 23Young College 23 24 25 25 20 22 19 34 15 21 27 26 19Older Non College 22 24 21 20 26 23 27 12 26 22 15 20 29Older College 24 31 23 24 26 25 27 17 25 25 26 24 24

White Age/EducationTotal answering (968) (594) (390) (278) (298) (399) (354) (178) (93) (78) (262) (390) (300)Young Non College 18 12 16 19 20 14 17 25 14 11 16 20 16Young College 26 24 29 27 20 26 20 38 18 24 33 27 20Older Non College 25 26 22 23 30 24 31 14 33 26 17 22 34Older College 32 38 33 32 31 36 32 23 35 39 34 32 30

Is member of unionTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Yes: Respondent 12 12 14 9 11 14 11 6 12 12 14 10 11Household member 6 5 3 9 7 4 6 10 7 8 5 6 6No member belongs 77 78 78 76 78 76 77 80 72 72 77 79 77(Don't know) 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0Yes: Private Sector 1 1 2 2 0 2 1 1 2 4 2 1 1Yes: Public Sector 3 3 3 3 3 2 4 2 5 2 1 3 4Total Yes 16 16 18 14 14 19 16 9 18 18 17 15 16Total Union 22 21 21 23 21 23 22 19 26 26 22 20 22

White UnionTotal answering (1012) (618) (402) (297) (311) (415) (374) (186) (101) (83) (268) (411) (315)Yes: Respondent 12 11 16 7 11 17 10 6 9 14 16 10 11Household member 6 4 2 9 6 3 6 11 9 7 5 6 5No member belongs 78 80 76 78 79 75 79 79 75 72 74 81 78(Don't know) 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 1(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0Yes: Private Sector 1 1 2 2 0 2 0 1 1 5 2 1 0Yes: Public Sector 2 3 2 3 2 1 4 2 7 2 1 2 4Total Yes 16 15 20 12 14 21 14 9 16 21 20 13 15Total Union 21 19 22 21 20 23 20 20 25 28 24 19 21

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IDEOLOGYTotal PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated Right Wrong

Latino EducationTotal answering (287) (74) (110) (31) (31) (41) (61) (94) (26) (34) (72) (50) (203)Non College 76 83 76 72 64 74 87 78 66 63 72 91 71College grad 24 17 24 26 36 24 13 21 32 37 27 9 28

Gender/EducationTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Non College Men 23 22 20 25 23 29 22 20 23 24 25 23 23College Men 24 24 20 27 25 24 22 21 26 26 25 23 25Non College Women 27 23 33 23 28 24 25 31 24 28 25 38 26College Women 25 30 26 23 23 19 30 27 26 21 23 16 26

White Gender/EducationTotal answering (1006) (256) (248) (135) (266) (100) (196) (206) (139) (228) (238) (71) (862)Non College Men 20 16 16 22 22 29 17 16 22 21 23 18 20College Men 28 30 23 32 25 30 27 28 30 27 27 40 27Non College Women 23 17 29 23 29 12 19 24 21 30 21 19 24College Women 30 37 32 23 24 29 37 32 27 23 29 23 29

Age/EducationTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Young Non College 26 30 27 26 19 30 31 23 20 20 33 39 24Young College 23 28 25 24 19 19 25 20 23 17 30 22 24Older Non College 22 15 23 22 29 19 17 26 25 29 14 20 22Older College 24 26 20 24 29 21 27 25 25 29 17 16 25

White Age/EducationTotal answering (968) (252) (238) (130) (258) (91) (194) (194) (131) (220) (230) (70) (828)Young Non College 18 16 19 19 18 17 17 11 14 18 27 17 17Young College 26 34 26 22 19 25 31 22 24 18 32 35 25Older Non College 25 16 25 27 32 23 18 29 30 32 17 20 26Older College 32 34 30 31 31 34 34 38 32 33 24 28 32

Is member of unionTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Yes: Respondent 12 14 12 9 11 11 15 14 12 10 9 7 12Household member 6 5 6 7 6 7 4 4 7 6 8 7 6No member belongs 77 76 78 81 78 72 77 76 76 78 77 83 77(Don't know) 1 1 0 0 1 3 1 1 0 1 1 1 1(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0Yes: Private Sector 1 2 1 1 1 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 1Yes: Public Sector 3 1 3 3 4 2 1 3 4 4 2 2 3Total Yes 16 17 16 12 15 16 18 19 16 15 12 10 16Total Union 22 22 22 19 21 23 21 23 24 21 20 16 22

White UnionTotal answering (1012) (257) (250) (138) (267) (101) (197) (207) (141) (229) (239) (73) (866)Yes: Respondent 12 17 12 8 10 8 19 14 11 9 8 5 13Household member 6 4 7 8 5 4 2 3 8 5 9 7 5No member belongs 78 74 77 81 79 81 74 78 77 80 78 88 77(Don't know) 1 2 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 1(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Yes: Private Sector 1 2 1 0 0 4 2 2 0 0 2 0 1Yes: Public Sector 2 1 2 3 4 1 0 2 4 4 2 1 3Total Yes 16 20 16 12 15 13 21 19 15 13 12 6 16Total Union 21 24 23 19 20 17 23 22 23 18 21 12 22

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Total PTY/IDEO PTYREG/IDEO STATE DIR

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

10 8-10 6-10 0-5 0-7 BrownWhit man Und Ref

Latino EducationTotal answering (287) (66) (145) (208) (77) (140) (146) (93) (45)Non College 76 73 77 74 81 75 76 72 84College grad 24 26 23 26 18 25 24 28 15

Gender/EducationTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Non College Men 23 22 22 24 22 24 21 24 23College Men 24 27 27 25 19 20 24 25 18Non College Women 27 27 25 25 31 29 25 26 40College Women 25 23 25 25 28 27 29 24 17

White Gender/EducationTotal answering (1006) (336) (522) (723) (279) (480) (459) (446) (76)Non College Men 20 19 19 21 18 21 17 21 21College Men 28 30 31 29 24 24 29 27 26Non College Women 23 26 22 22 25 24 19 26 30College Women 30 25 28 28 33 31 35 26 24

Age/EducationTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Young Non College 26 18 20 26 28 33 24 26 35Young College 23 16 21 23 26 27 25 23 20Older Non College 22 29 25 21 23 18 20 23 23Older College 24 31 29 26 19 19 27 24 13

White Age/EducationTotal answering (968) (320) (498) (695) (269) (465) (442) (430) (71)Young Non College 18 13 13 19 15 23 14 20 18Young College 26 19 22 23 31 30 28 24 31Older Non College 25 31 27 23 28 22 21 27 32Older College 32 37 38 34 26 25 37 30 20

Is member of unionTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Yes: Respondent 12 13 12 12 12 12 13 11 12Household member 6 5 4 5 7 7 5 6 13No member belongs 77 78 79 78 74 75 77 78 68(Don't know) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2Yes: Private Sector 1 1 1 1 3 2 2 1 1Yes: Public Sector 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 2Total Yes 16 16 16 15 17 16 17 15 15Total Union 22 21 20 21 24 23 22 21 28

White UnionTotal answering (1012) (340) (527) (729) (279) (481) (461) (450) (77)Yes: Respondent 12 13 12 12 12 12 15 10 13Household member 6 5 4 5 6 7 3 7 12No member belongs 78 78 80 79 75 76 77 79 70(Don't know) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1Yes: Private Sector 1 1 1 0 3 2 2 1 1Yes: Public Sector 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 3Total Yes 16 16 15 15 18 16 19 13 17Total Union 21 21 19 20 24 23 22 20 29

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Total ENTHUSIASM GOV VOTE

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Latino EducationTotal answering (287) (56) (43) (26) (21) (37) (32) (37) (35) (99) (47) (69) (72) (116)Non College 76 63 80 94 79 90 80 81 51 70 87 85 67 86College grad 24 36 20 6 21 9 20 19 47 29 13 14 32 14

Gender/EducationTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Non College Men 23 16 24 23 40 29 26 23 24 18 30 28 24 28College Men 24 26 26 20 18 20 23 17 26 26 19 21 24 20Non College Women 27 22 31 33 21 36 30 32 24 24 28 34 26 32College Women 25 36 20 24 20 13 20 26 25 31 22 16 25 18

White Gender/EducationTotal answering (1006) (294) (83) (54) (29) (72) (70) (91) (315) (377) (82) (142) (405) (224)Non College Men 20 14 20 14 32 25 24 18 23 16 20 25 22 23College Men 28 28 36 25 28 30 30 22 26 30 26 30 25 29Non College Women 23 18 23 26 15 28 22 27 26 19 22 25 27 24College Women 30 39 21 35 25 18 24 32 25 35 32 21 27 25

Age/EducationTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Young Non College 26 14 36 34 44 42 39 36 17 20 38 41 22 40Young College 23 24 26 28 23 21 29 22 21 25 26 24 21 25Older Non College 22 22 17 21 16 21 14 15 29 20 19 18 25 18Older College 24 36 18 14 15 10 12 21 28 31 15 11 26 13

White Age/EducationTotal answering (968) (280) (81) (52) (29) (69) (66) (87) (304) (361) (81) (135) (391) (216)Young Non College 18 9 28 14 30 21 33 26 17 13 20 27 19 24Young College 26 26 28 39 26 27 36 26 20 26 34 31 21 32Older Non College 25 22 16 25 17 33 13 18 33 21 22 23 29 23Older College 32 43 28 21 28 19 19 30 31 40 24 19 31 21

Is member of unionTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Yes: Respondent 12 17 8 7 7 17 10 6 10 15 7 14 9 11Household member 6 5 3 4 4 9 13 7 4 5 4 11 5 8No member belongs 77 72 82 89 83 71 70 78 80 75 87 71 80 76(Don't know) 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 1(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1Yes: Private Sector 1 3 2 0 1 1 0 2 1 2 0 0 1 0Yes: Public Sector 3 1 5 1 5 2 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 2Total Yes 16 21 15 8 12 19 14 11 15 19 9 17 14 14Total Union 22 26 18 11 16 28 27 18 19 24 13 27 19 22

White UnionTotal answering (1012) (295) (83) (54) (29) (73) (70) (92) (317) (378) (83) (142) (409) (226)Yes: Respondent 12 18 11 8 9 12 10 6 10 16 9 11 9 10Household member 6 4 2 2 3 9 16 10 4 4 2 12 5 9No member belongs 78 73 82 89 84 74 72 79 81 75 87 73 80 78(Don't know) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 0 1 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0Yes: Private Sector 1 3 2 0 0 1 0 0 1 3 0 1 1 0Yes: Public Sector 2 1 4 2 4 3 0 3 3 2 2 2 3 2Total Yes 16 21 16 10 13 17 10 10 14 20 11 14 13 13Total Union 21 26 18 11 16 26 26 19 18 24 13 26 19 21

Page 292

Total BROWN VCS

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Latino EducationTotal answering (287) (31) (22) (22) (18) (40) (33) (59) (62) (53) (40) (73) (121) (112)Non College 76 48 85 78 89 81 95 80 64 63 83 87 72 86College grad 24 49 15 22 11 18 5 20 35 35 17 12 28 14

Gender/EducationTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Non College Men 23 23 22 25 30 38 25 23 16 23 27 32 18 30College Men 24 27 18 29 20 17 19 22 26 25 24 18 25 20Non College Women 27 23 30 26 36 27 33 35 23 24 31 30 27 30College Women 25 26 28 19 14 16 22 19 34 26 17 19 29 18

White Gender/EducationTotal answering (1006) (290) (79) (44) (33) (61) (74) (106) (319) (369) (77) (135) (425) (212)Non College Men 20 23 18 19 20 38 17 20 15 22 19 27 16 24College Men 28 26 23 42 25 26 24 30 29 25 35 25 29 29Non College Women 23 25 26 20 35 16 27 27 19 25 27 22 21 24College Women 30 26 34 19 19 20 31 22 38 28 19 26 34 24

Age/EducationTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Young Non College 26 16 36 38 46 39 35 38 16 20 42 37 22 39Young College 23 22 23 32 22 21 29 23 23 22 27 25 23 25Older Non College 22 28 14 9 20 23 20 19 22 25 15 21 21 19Older College 24 29 23 14 11 11 12 16 35 27 12 11 30 12

White Age/EducationTotal answering (968) (279) (77) (42) (32) (59) (71) (103) (305) (356) (74) (130) (408) (204)Young Non College 18 16 27 32 22 25 20 26 10 18 28 22 14 24Young College 26 21 28 40 18 27 39 27 24 22 30 34 25 33Older Non College 25 32 15 7 34 30 23 21 22 28 19 26 22 23Older College 32 32 30 21 26 18 18 26 43 31 23 18 39 20

Is member of unionTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Yes: Respondent 12 11 7 12 14 13 6 8 16 10 13 10 14 11Household member 6 4 5 14 5 7 7 5 6 4 10 7 5 8No member belongs 77 80 80 68 78 76 83 79 73 80 73 79 75 77(Don't know) 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0(Refuse) 0 0 2 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1Yes: Private Sector 1 1 2 0 1 0 0 2 3 1 1 0 2 0Yes: Public Sector 3 3 3 4 1 2 2 4 2 3 3 2 2 3Total Yes 16 16 12 16 16 16 9 14 20 15 16 12 18 14Total Union 22 20 16 30 22 23 16 19 25 19 26 20 23 22

White UnionTotal answering (1012) (293) (80) (44) (33) (62) (74) (106) (320) (373) (77) (136) (426) (213)Yes: Respondent 12 11 6 11 7 14 8 9 17 10 9 11 15 10Household member 6 5 7 23 3 8 5 4 4 5 15 6 4 9No member belongs 78 80 81 66 83 76 82 82 74 80 74 79 76 77(Don't know) 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0Yes: Private Sector 1 1 0 0 3 0 0 1 3 1 1 0 2 0Yes: Public Sector 2 3 4 0 3 2 3 3 1 3 1 2 2 2Total Yes 16 15 10 11 13 16 11 14 21 14 12 13 19 13Total Union 21 19 17 34 17 24 16 18 24 19 26 20 23 22

Page 293

Total WHITMAN VCS

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Brown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

better

Govt back

groundBiz back ground

Brown better

Whit man

better Boxer Fiorina DK/ Ref

Latino EducationTotal answering (287) (132) (67) (119) (74) (122) (98) (115) (151) (104) (91) (173) (62) (48)Non College 76 75 72 78 72 77 70 76 74 79 69 76 67 85College grad 24 25 28 22 27 22 29 23 26 21 30 24 31 14

Gender/EducationTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Non College Men 23 19 26 23 22 20 24 20 26 24 23 20 25 27College Men 24 26 25 24 24 24 25 24 24 23 26 23 27 10Non College Women 27 26 26 27 26 28 26 27 26 25 25 27 23 42College Women 25 28 23 26 26 27 24 28 23 27 26 28 23 19

White Gender/EducationTotal answering (1006) (452) (359) (334) (417) (315) (486) (495) (456) (330) (489) (504) (437) (59)Non College Men 20 17 25 20 20 16 23 17 24 21 21 15 24 27College Men 28 31 26 29 24 30 26 28 28 28 26 29 29 11Non College Women 23 19 25 21 26 21 24 22 23 19 24 23 23 28College Women 30 33 24 30 30 33 26 33 26 32 29 34 24 34

Age/EducationTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Young Non College 26 23 26 27 26 24 27 24 28 24 24 26 22 44Young College 23 24 24 22 25 21 24 23 25 20 26 26 21 21Older Non College 22 20 23 21 20 22 22 22 22 23 21 19 25 20Older College 24 29 22 26 24 29 23 28 21 29 24 24 27 8

White Age/EducationTotal answering (968) (437) (344) (323) (403) (306) (468) (478) (438) (319) (471) (487) (421) (54)Young Non College 18 13 23 17 22 12 22 14 21 15 19 17 18 27Young College 26 25 24 24 26 22 25 25 26 21 26 29 21 34Older Non College 25 23 27 24 24 25 25 24 25 25 25 21 29 25Older College 32 39 26 36 28 41 28 36 28 39 30 34 32 13

Is member of unionTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Yes: Respondent 12 14 9 14 9 15 10 13 9 13 12 12 11 15Household member 6 6 3 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 13No member belongs 77 75 82 77 80 76 81 76 79 78 79 77 79 66(Don't know) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 2(Refuse) 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1Yes: Private Sector 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 0Yes: Public Sector 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 3Total Yes 16 18 13 18 13 18 14 17 15 17 16 16 15 18Total Union 22 24 16 22 19 24 18 22 20 22 20 21 20 31

White UnionTotal answering (1012) (455) (360) (336) (420) (318) (488) (499) (458) (333) (492) (508) (440) (59)Yes: Respondent 12 15 10 16 9 18 9 14 9 16 10 13 11 19Household member 6 5 4 3 7 4 5 5 6 4 4 6 5 10No member belongs 78 75 83 77 80 74 81 76 80 76 81 76 81 69(Don't know) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Yes: Private Sector 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 0 0Yes: Public Sector 2 2 3 2 3 1 3 2 3 1 3 2 3 3Total Yes 16 19 13 18 13 21 13 17 14 19 14 17 14 22Total Union 21 24 17 22 19 25 18 23 19 23 19 23 19 31

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ENERGY BCKGRND ECONOMY SEN VOTETotal UNDERSTAND CLEAR PLAN

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Latino EducationTotal answering (287) (53) (39) (43) (38) (28) (14) (28) (45) (92) (81) (41) (73) (122)Non College 76 69 78 88 70 90 73 84 60 73 80 84 69 81College grad 24 30 22 12 30 8 27 16 38 27 20 15 29 18

Gender/EducationTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Non College Men 23 15 24 33 21 37 22 19 26 18 27 30 25 28College Men 24 29 21 15 15 13 9 24 29 27 15 11 28 14Non College Women 27 21 28 34 41 34 40 33 21 23 37 37 24 37College Women 25 35 26 18 23 15 29 22 22 32 20 21 22 21

White Gender/EducationTotal answering (1006) (277) (101) (71) (55) (43) (45) (62) (352) (378) (126) (88) (414) (215)Non College Men 20 10 22 29 11 25 14 20 27 13 21 19 26 20College Men 28 33 28 22 17 18 8 32 29 32 20 13 29 17Non College Women 23 18 21 23 50 32 39 20 21 18 35 35 21 35College Women 30 40 30 26 22 25 39 28 23 37 24 32 24 27

Age/EducationTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Young Non College 26 13 35 42 41 44 43 35 18 20 41 44 21 42Young College 23 27 25 21 28 18 21 29 19 26 24 20 21 22Older Non College 22 21 16 22 18 23 16 15 28 19 20 20 25 20Older College 24 35 20 11 8 8 16 16 30 31 10 12 27 10

White Age/EducationTotal answering (968) (266) (99) (69) (53) (39) (43) (59) (339) (364) (123) (82) (399) (205)Young Non College 18 6 24 32 38 23 33 21 16 10 35 28 17 32Young College 26 30 25 31 29 32 22 39 18 28 30 27 21 29Older Non College 25 21 19 19 24 33 19 18 31 21 21 26 29 23Older College 32 43 33 17 9 12 26 22 34 41 14 19 32 16

Is member of unionTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Yes: Respondent 12 16 10 4 5 16 10 9 12 15 5 13 11 8Household member 6 4 5 6 9 9 12 7 5 4 8 10 5 9No member belongs 77 74 78 85 77 73 73 79 78 76 81 73 78 78(Don't know) 1 1 2 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0(Refuse) 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1Yes: Private Sector 1 2 2 1 3 1 0 2 1 2 2 1 1 1Yes: Public Sector 3 2 2 3 4 1 4 2 3 2 4 2 3 3Total Yes 16 20 14 8 13 17 14 13 16 18 10 16 16 13Total Union 22 24 19 14 22 26 27 20 21 23 18 26 21 21

White UnionTotal answering (1012) (278) (102) (71) (56) (43) (45) (62) (354) (381) (127) (88) (416) (215)Yes: Respondent 12 18 10 2 5 19 13 6 11 16 4 16 10 9Household member 6 3 7 8 12 8 10 2 5 4 10 9 5 10No member belongs 78 74 76 87 70 74 72 90 80 75 79 73 81 77(Don't know) 1 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0Yes: Private Sector 1 2 1 1 6 0 0 0 1 2 3 0 1 2Yes: Public Sector 2 1 2 1 6 0 4 2 3 2 3 2 3 3Total Yes 16 21 13 5 16 19 17 8 15 19 10 18 14 13Total Union 21 24 21 13 29 26 28 10 20 23 20 27 18 23

Page 295

Total BOXER VCS

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Latino EducationTotal answering (287) (36) (13) (9) (61) (50) (53) (60) (49) (13) (111) (114) (124)Non College 76 58 70 84 75 87 81 71 61 90 80 76 81College grad 24 40 30 16 25 13 19 28 37 10 20 24 19

Gender/EducationTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Non College Men 23 25 18 27 25 29 25 16 24 32 27 19 28College Men 24 29 32 9 14 14 19 28 30 12 14 25 14Non College Women 27 21 28 35 40 35 31 21 22 33 38 24 37College Women 25 23 19 28 20 21 24 34 23 23 21 31 21

White Gender/EducationTotal answering (1006) (341) (50) (33) (86) (86) (111) (285) (390) (47) (172) (397) (219)Non College Men 20 26 19 16 18 25 24 11 25 14 22 14 20College Men 28 29 39 10 15 19 27 32 30 14 17 31 16Non College Women 23 21 23 34 43 25 20 17 21 38 34 18 35College Women 30 24 19 40 24 31 29 39 23 34 27 36 29

Age/EducationTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Young Non College 26 17 27 43 41 41 38 15 18 45 41 22 42Young College 23 20 31 17 25 24 24 26 22 17 25 25 23Older Non College 22 28 17 17 21 21 16 20 26 19 21 19 20Older College 24 31 20 18 8 10 19 34 29 16 9 29 10

White Age/EducationTotal answering (968) (329) (47) (31) (82) (84) (108) (273) (376) (45) (166) (381) (210)Young Non College 18 16 22 27 36 31 24 7 17 24 33 11 31Young College 26 19 36 19 29 35 24 29 21 22 32 28 30Older Non College 25 31 19 22 25 19 20 21 30 28 22 21 23Older College 32 34 23 32 10 15 32 43 33 26 13 40 16

Is member of unionTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Yes: Respondent 12 12 11 10 11 5 10 16 12 9 8 14 8Household member 6 5 3 10 11 6 8 4 5 7 9 5 8No member belongs 77 79 80 78 71 83 77 75 79 82 77 75 78(Don't know) 1 0 0 1 1 0 2 1 0 1 1 2 1(Refuse) 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1Yes: Private Sector 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1Yes: Public Sector 3 4 3 0 3 5 1 2 4 0 4 2 3Total Yes 16 16 16 11 16 10 13 20 16 10 13 18 13Total Union 22 21 19 21 27 16 21 24 21 17 22 23 21

White UnionTotal answering (1012) (343) (50) (33) (87) (86) (113) (287) (393) (47) (173) (400) (220)Yes: Respondent 12 11 6 14 11 4 11 17 11 11 7 15 8Household member 6 5 3 7 14 7 7 3 5 5 11 4 9No member belongs 78 80 88 79 66 85 76 75 81 84 76 75 77(Don't know) 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 2 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0Yes: Private Sector 1 0 0 0 4 1 1 2 0 0 2 2 2Yes: Public Sector 2 3 3 0 4 3 2 1 3 0 3 1 3Total Yes 16 15 9 14 18 8 14 21 14 11 13 19 13Total Union 21 20 12 21 33 15 21 24 19 16 24 23 22

Page 296

Total FIORINA VCS

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Support Obama

Oppose Obama

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better Favor Oppose

Impor tant

Not Impor tant

Latino EducationTotal answering (287) (202) (59) (125) (60) (123) (56) (108) (61) (102) (104) (244) (41)Non College 76 78 69 79 71 75 73 75 70 77 72 77 69College grad 24 21 30 21 29 25 27 24 29 23 28 23 31

Gender/EducationTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Non College Men 23 22 26 20 24 19 26 19 23 31 19 21 29College Men 24 24 25 23 26 24 29 25 30 22 29 22 28Non College Women 27 27 25 27 24 25 22 25 24 24 21 29 21College Women 25 26 23 29 24 31 22 29 23 22 30 27 21

White Gender/EducationTotal answering (1006) (534) (348) (339) (404) (419) (337) (368) (367) (388) (410) (716) (285)Non College Men 20 17 25 13 24 14 24 14 22 30 14 17 28College Men 28 30 25 28 28 29 31 30 32 25 33 27 29Non College Women 23 21 25 22 23 20 22 21 23 22 17 23 22College Women 30 33 24 36 26 37 23 34 24 24 36 32 22

Age/EducationTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Young Non College 26 29 23 26 22 23 22 23 20 31 21 28 21Young College 23 26 20 24 22 27 20 25 21 23 28 25 19Older Non College 22 19 25 20 25 20 25 20 25 22 17 20 26Older College 24 23 26 27 27 27 28 28 30 20 29 22 29

White Age/EducationTotal answering (968) (517) (335) (330) (390) (409) (323) (356) (354) (378) (393) (688) (275)Young Non College 18 17 21 15 17 13 16 15 15 25 12 17 19Young College 26 30 20 27 22 30 21 27 21 22 31 28 19Older Non College 25 20 29 20 29 21 29 20 30 26 18 23 30Older College 32 33 30 38 31 36 33 38 34 26 38 32 32

Is member of unionTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Yes: Respondent 12 12 9 15 11 13 13 14 10 11 14 12 9Household member 6 6 4 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 6 6No member belongs 77 77 80 76 80 78 78 76 81 78 78 77 78(Don't know) 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0Yes: Private Sector 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 1Yes: Public Sector 3 2 3 2 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 3Total Yes 16 16 14 18 14 17 16 19 15 15 18 16 14Total Union 22 22 18 23 20 22 21 24 19 20 21 22 20

White UnionTotal answering (1012) (537) (351) (341) (407) (422) (339) (371) (368) (390) (412) (721) (286)Yes: Respondent 12 14 9 16 10 14 12 16 8 10 15 13 8Household member 6 6 5 4 6 4 6 5 4 5 3 5 7No member belongs 78 77 81 75 81 77 79 74 83 81 77 78 79(Don't know) 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Yes: Private Sector 1 1 1 1 0 2 0 2 1 1 2 2 1Yes: Public Sector 2 2 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 2 2 2 4Total Yes 16 16 13 20 13 18 15 21 12 13 19 17 12Total Union 21 22 18 23 19 22 21 25 17 18 23 22 20

Page 297

SHARE VALUES JOBS ECON PROP 23 GW IMPTTotal SENTYPE CHANGE

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

White Black Latino Asian Men Women Men Women Men Women

Latino EducationTotal answering (287) (6) (0) (287) (0) (127) (160) (2) (4) (127) (160)Non College 76 55 0 76 0 75 76 0 83 75 76College grad 24 45 0 24 0 25 23 100 17 25 23

Gender/EducationTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Non College Men 23 20 26 33 13 49 0 42 0 75 0College Men 24 27 23 11 33 50 0 58 0 25 0Non College Women 27 23 32 43 20 0 51 0 44 0 76College Women 25 29 20 13 32 0 48 0 56 0 23

White Gender/EducationTotal answering (1006) (1006) (6) (6) (0) (477) (529) (477) (529) (2) (4)Non College Men 20 20 0 0 0 42 0 42 0 0 0College Men 28 28 100 33 0 58 0 58 0 100 0Non College Women 23 23 0 55 0 0 44 0 44 0 83College Women 30 30 0 12 0 0 56 0 56 0 17

Age/EducationTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Young Non College 26 17 42 55 27 28 25 19 15 56 54Young College 23 24 27 17 49 23 24 23 25 17 17Older Non College 22 24 10 20 4 20 23 21 26 18 21Older College 24 30 15 7 14 25 23 32 29 8 6

White Age/EducationTotal answering (968) (968) (6) (6) (0) (460) (508) (460) (508) (2) (4)Young Non College 18 18 0 27 0 20 16 20 16 0 41Young College 26 26 85 33 0 24 27 24 27 100 0Older Non College 25 25 0 28 0 22 27 22 27 0 42Older College 32 32 15 12 0 34 30 34 30 0 17

Is member of unionTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Yes: Respondent 12 12 22 7 9 13 10 14 11 10 5Household member 6 6 11 7 10 6 5 6 5 6 7No member belongs 77 78 64 78 80 76 78 77 78 76 80(Don't know) 1 1 0 2 0 1 1 1 1 2 2(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0Yes: Private Sector 1 1 1 2 0 2 1 2 1 3 0Yes: Public Sector 3 2 1 4 1 1 4 1 4 3 5Total Yes 16 16 25 13 11 17 15 16 16 16 11Total Union 22 21 36 20 20 23 20 22 21 22 18

White UnionTotal answering (1012) (1012) (6) (6) (0) (479) (533) (479) (533) (2) (4)Yes: Respondent 12 12 0 0 0 14 11 14 11 0 0Household member 6 6 85 0 0 6 5 6 5 0 0No member belongs 78 78 15 88 0 77 78 77 78 100 83(Don't know) 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Yes: Private Sector 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 2 1 0 0Yes: Public Sector 2 2 0 12 0 1 4 1 4 0 17Total Yes 16 16 0 12 0 16 16 16 16 0 17Total Union 21 21 85 12 0 22 21 22 21 0 17

Page 298

WHT GEN LAT GENTotal RACE GENDER

Page 299: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over

Latino EducationTotal answering (287) (113) (48) (44) (48) (29) (205) (76)Non College 76 87 54 75 73 74 76 74College grad 24 13 46 24 27 24 23 26

Gender/EducationTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Non College Men 23 35 24 19 23 16 26 20College Men 24 14 26 25 27 24 22 26Non College Women 27 42 15 22 21 35 27 27College Women 25 9 34 33 29 23 25 26

White Gender/EducationTotal answering (1006) (105) (138) (177) (314) (234) (420) (548)Non College Men 20 34 26 11 21 15 22 19College Men 28 19 31 28 30 26 27 28Non College Women 23 35 7 19 19 33 19 25College Women 30 13 36 41 30 26 32 28

Age/EducationTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Young Non College 26 77 39 41 0 0 53 0Young College 23 23 60 58 0 0 47 0Older Non College 22 0 0 0 44 51 0 47Older College 24 0 0 0 56 47 0 52

White Age/EducationTotal answering (968) (105) (138) (177) (314) (234) (420) (548)Young Non College 18 69 33 31 0 0 41 0Young College 26 31 67 69 0 0 59 0Older Non College 25 0 0 0 40 48 0 44Older College 32 0 0 0 60 52 0 56

Is member of unionTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Yes: Respondent 12 6 12 16 15 7 11 12Household member 6 13 4 5 5 3 7 4No member belongs 77 76 79 73 74 86 76 79(Don't know) 1 3 0 1 0 1 1 0(Refuse) 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0Yes: Private Sector 1 0 2 0 2 2 1 2Yes: Public Sector 3 1 2 5 3 1 3 2Total Yes 16 8 16 21 21 10 15 16Total Union 22 20 21 26 26 13 22 21

White UnionTotal answering (1012) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551)Yes: Respondent 12 7 15 14 15 7 12 12Household member 6 17 6 3 5 3 7 4No member belongs 78 72 77 75 75 88 75 81(Don't know) 1 4 0 1 0 1 1 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Yes: Private Sector 1 0 3 0 2 1 1 1Yes: Public Sector 2 1 0 7 3 1 3 2Total Yes 16 8 18 21 20 9 17 15Total Union 21 25 23 24 25 12 24 19

Page 299

Total AGE

Page 300: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over 18-29 30-4950 and

over 18-4950 and

over

Latino EducationTotal answering (287) (2) (2) (0) (2) (0) (4) (2) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Non College 76 100 0 0 71 0 45 71 87 64 74 76 74College grad 24 0 100 0 29 0 55 29 13 35 26 23 26

Gender/EducationTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Non College Men 23 34 26 11 21 15 22 18 38 31 30 34 30College Men 24 19 31 28 30 26 27 28 7 14 13 10 13Non College Women 27 35 7 19 19 33 19 25 49 33 44 42 44College Women 25 13 36 41 30 25 32 28 6 21 12 13 12

White Gender/EducationTotal answering (1006) (105) (138) (177) (314) (234) (420) (548) (2) (2) (2) (4) (2)Non College Men 20 34 26 11 21 15 22 19 0 0 0 0 0College Men 28 19 31 28 30 26 27 28 0 100 0 55 0Non College Women 23 35 7 19 19 33 19 25 100 0 71 45 71College Women 30 13 36 41 30 26 32 28 0 0 29 0 29

Age/EducationTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Young Non College 26 69 33 31 0 0 41 0 87 64 0 76 0Young College 23 31 67 69 0 0 59 0 13 35 0 23 0Older Non College 22 0 0 0 40 48 0 43 0 0 74 0 74Older College 24 0 0 0 60 51 0 56 0 0 26 0 26

White Age/EducationTotal answering (968) (105) (138) (177) (314) (234) (420) (548) (2) (2) (2) (4) (2)Young Non College 18 69 33 31 0 0 41 0 100 0 0 45 0Young College 26 31 67 69 0 0 59 0 0 100 0 55 0Older Non College 25 0 0 0 40 48 0 44 0 0 71 0 71Older College 32 0 0 0 60 52 0 56 0 0 29 0 29

Is member of unionTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Yes: Respondent 12 7 15 14 15 7 12 12 5 9 8 7 8Household member 6 17 6 3 5 3 7 4 10 3 6 7 6No member belongs 77 72 77 75 75 88 75 81 79 81 75 80 75(Don't know) 1 4 0 1 0 1 1 0 3 0 2 2 2(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Yes: Private Sector 1 0 3 0 2 1 1 1 0 1 4 0 4Yes: Public Sector 3 1 0 7 3 1 3 2 2 6 5 4 5Total Yes 16 8 18 21 20 9 17 15 8 16 17 11 17Total Union 22 25 23 24 25 12 24 19 17 19 23 18 23

White UnionTotal answering (1012) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (2) (2) (2) (4) (2)Yes: Respondent 12 7 15 14 15 7 12 12 0 0 0 0 0Household member 6 17 6 3 5 3 7 4 0 0 0 0 0No member belongs 78 72 77 75 75 88 75 81 100 100 71 100 71(Don't know) 1 4 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Yes: Private Sector 1 0 3 0 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0Yes: Public Sector 2 1 0 7 3 1 3 2 0 0 29 0 29Total Yes 16 8 18 21 20 9 17 15 0 0 29 0 29Total Union 21 25 23 24 25 12 24 19 0 0 29 0 29

Page 300

Total WHT AGE LAT AGE

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Young Women

Young Men

Older Women

Older Men

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Latino EducationTotal answering (287) (114) (92) (43) (34) (101) (116) (44) (25) (217) (68)Non College 76 76 77 78 68 100 100 0 0 100 0College grad 24 24 23 22 30 0 0 100 100 0 100

Gender/EducationTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Non College Men 23 0 54 0 44 44 47 0 0 46 0College Men 24 0 45 0 56 0 0 51 45 0 48Non College Women 27 51 0 50 0 56 53 0 0 54 0College Women 25 48 0 49 0 0 0 49 55 0 52

White Gender/EducationTotal answering (1006) (216) (204) (292) (256) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575)Non College Men 20 0 45 0 40 43 48 0 0 46 0College Men 28 0 55 0 60 0 0 53 43 0 48Non College Women 23 37 0 47 0 57 52 0 0 54 0College Women 30 63 0 53 0 0 0 47 57 0 52

Age/EducationTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Young Non College 26 51 54 0 0 46 56 0 0 53 0Young College 23 48 45 0 0 0 0 51 44 0 48Older Non College 22 0 0 50 44 50 40 0 0 43 0Older College 24 0 0 49 56 0 0 47 52 0 49

White Age/EducationTotal answering (968) (216) (204) (292) (256) (128) (283) (308) (248) (412) (556)Young Non College 18 37 45 0 0 33 46 0 0 42 0Young College 26 63 55 0 0 0 0 46 42 0 44Older Non College 25 0 0 47 40 67 54 0 0 58 0Older College 32 0 0 53 60 0 0 54 58 0 56

Is member of unionTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Yes: Respondent 12 9 15 11 13 6 13 10 17 10 13Household member 6 7 8 4 4 5 9 5 3 7 4No member belongs 77 78 73 79 79 84 75 79 73 78 76(Don't know) 1 1 1 1 0 2 1 0 1 1 1(Refuse) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Yes: Private Sector 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 1 2Yes: Public Sector 3 4 1 3 2 2 1 3 5 1 4Total Yes 16 14 17 16 17 9 15 16 23 13 19Total Union 22 20 25 20 21 13 24 21 26 20 23

White UnionTotal answering (1012) (217) (204) (294) (257) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575)Yes: Respondent 12 9 16 11 12 5 13 8 19 10 13Household member 6 6 9 4 4 5 8 6 3 7 4No member belongs 78 78 71 80 82 84 77 80 73 79 76(Don't know) 1 1 2 0 0 3 1 0 1 1 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0Yes: Private Sector 1 1 1 1 2 1 0 3 1 0 2Yes: Public Sector 2 5 1 3 1 2 1 3 3 1 3Total Yes 16 15 18 16 14 8 14 15 24 12 19Total Union 21 21 27 20 18 12 22 20 27 19 23

Page 301

Total GENDER/AGE EDUCATION

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Non College College

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Latino EducationTotal answering (287) (0) (3) (2) (1) (3) (3) (217) (68) (95) (31) (122) (37)Non College 76 0 100 0 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 0College grad 24 0 0 100 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100

Gender/EducationTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Non College Men 23 43 48 0 0 46 0 44 0 100 0 0 0College Men 24 0 0 53 43 0 48 0 46 0 100 0 0Non College Women 27 57 52 0 0 54 0 56 0 0 0 100 0College Women 25 0 0 47 57 0 52 0 54 0 0 0 100

White Gender/EducationTotal answering (1006) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (3) (3) (200) (278) (232) (297)Non College Men 20 43 48 0 0 46 0 0 0 100 0 0 0College Men 28 0 0 53 43 0 48 0 74 0 100 0 0Non College Women 23 57 52 0 0 54 0 100 0 0 0 100 0College Women 30 0 0 47 57 0 52 0 26 0 0 0 100

Age/EducationTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Young Non College 26 31 44 0 0 40 0 72 0 56 0 49 0Young College 23 0 0 45 41 0 43 0 70 0 46 0 50Older Non College 22 64 52 0 0 55 0 26 0 40 0 46 0Older College 24 0 0 52 56 0 54 0 29 0 50 0 48

White Age/EducationTotal answering (968) (128) (283) (308) (248) (412) (556) (3) (3) (193) (267) (219) (289)Young Non College 18 33 46 0 0 42 0 49 0 47 0 37 0Young College 26 0 0 46 42 0 44 0 74 0 42 0 47Older Non College 25 67 54 0 0 58 0 51 0 53 0 63 0Older College 32 0 0 54 58 0 56 0 26 0 58 0 53

Is member of unionTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Yes: Respondent 12 5 13 8 19 10 13 4 15 13 14 8 12Household member 6 5 8 6 3 7 4 8 2 7 5 8 3No member belongs 77 84 77 80 73 79 76 82 66 77 76 79 77(Don't know) 1 3 1 0 1 1 0 2 2 1 0 1 1(Refuse) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0Yes: Private Sector 1 1 0 3 1 0 2 1 2 2 2 0 2Yes: Public Sector 3 2 1 3 3 1 3 2 13 0 3 3 5Total Yes 16 8 14 15 24 12 19 8 30 15 19 11 19Total Union 22 12 22 20 27 19 23 16 32 22 24 19 22

White UnionTotal answering (1012) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (3) (3) (200) (278) (232) (297)Yes: Respondent 12 5 13 8 19 10 13 0 0 13 14 8 12Household member 6 5 8 6 3 7 4 0 0 7 6 7 3No member belongs 78 84 77 80 73 79 76 100 74 78 77 81 76(Don't know) 1 3 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 1(Refuse) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Yes: Private Sector 1 1 0 3 1 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 2Yes: Public Sector 2 2 1 3 3 1 3 0 26 0 2 2 5Total Yes 16 8 14 15 24 12 19 0 26 14 18 11 20Total Union 21 12 22 20 27 19 23 0 26 20 23 18 23

Page 302

GENDER/EDUCTotal WHT EDUC LAT EDUC

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Latino EducationTotal answering (287) (0) (2) (3) (1) (157) (48) (56) (20) (2) (2) (2) (1)Non College 76 0 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 0College grad 24 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100

Gender/EducationTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Non College Men 23 100 0 0 0 49 0 43 0 53 0 42 0College Men 24 0 100 0 0 0 46 0 50 0 45 0 50Non College Women 27 0 0 100 0 51 0 57 0 47 0 58 0College Women 25 0 0 0 100 0 54 0 50 0 55 0 50

White Gender/EducationTotal answering (1006) (200) (278) (232) (297) (172) (248) (239) (309) (172) (248) (239) (309)Non College Men 20 100 0 0 0 53 0 42 0 53 0 42 0College Men 28 0 100 0 0 0 45 0 50 0 45 0 50Non College Women 23 0 0 100 0 47 0 58 0 47 0 58 0College Women 30 0 0 0 100 0 55 0 50 0 55 0 50

Age/EducationTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Young Non College 26 46 0 35 0 100 0 0 0 100 0 0 0Young College 23 0 40 0 46 0 100 0 0 0 100 0 0Older Non College 22 51 0 59 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 100 0Older College 24 0 56 0 52 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 100

White Age/EducationTotal answering (968) (193) (267) (219) (289) (172) (248) (239) (309) (172) (248) (239) (309)Young Non College 18 47 0 37 0 100 0 0 0 100 0 0 0Young College 26 0 42 0 47 0 100 0 0 0 100 0 0Older Non College 25 53 0 63 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 100 0Older College 32 0 58 0 53 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 100

Is member of unionTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Yes: Respondent 12 13 14 8 12 10 13 10 13 10 14 10 13Household member 6 7 6 7 3 10 4 4 5 11 5 4 5No member belongs 77 78 77 81 76 76 76 82 76 74 75 85 77(Don't know) 1 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 2 1 1 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Yes: Private Sector 1 1 2 0 2 0 1 1 3 0 2 0 2Yes: Public Sector 3 0 2 2 5 1 5 2 3 2 4 1 3Total Yes 16 14 18 11 20 12 19 13 19 12 20 11 18Total Union 22 20 23 18 23 22 23 17 24 23 24 15 23

White UnionTotal answering (1012) (200) (278) (232) (297) (172) (248) (239) (309) (172) (248) (239) (309)Yes: Respondent 12 13 14 8 12 10 14 10 13 10 14 10 13Household member 6 7 6 7 3 11 5 4 5 11 5 4 5No member belongs 78 78 77 81 76 74 75 85 77 74 75 85 77(Don't know) 1 2 0 1 1 2 1 1 0 2 1 1 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Yes: Private Sector 1 1 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2Yes: Public Sector 2 0 2 2 5 2 4 1 3 2 4 1 3Total Yes 16 14 18 11 20 12 20 11 18 12 20 11 18Total Union 21 20 23 18 23 23 24 15 23 23 24 15 23

Page 303

Total WHT GEN/EDUC AGE/EDUC WHT AGE/EDUC

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

MemberHhold

memberNo

memberTotal Union Member

Hhold member

No member

Total Union Member

No member

Total Union

Latino EducationTotal answering (287) (20) (19) (225) (56) (0) (0) (5) (1) (20) (220) (56)Non College 76 48 93 80 61 0 0 63 0 48 80 62College grad 24 52 7 20 39 0 0 37 100 52 20 38

Gender/EducationTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Non College Men 23 26 28 23 23 21 23 20 19 35 29 32College Men 24 28 22 23 26 32 29 27 30 19 15 18Non College Women 27 19 36 28 24 16 31 24 19 26 36 32College Women 25 27 13 25 26 31 17 29 32 18 18 16

White Gender/EducationTotal answering (1006) (121) (56) (782) (215) (121) (56) (782) (215) (0) (0) (0)Non College Men 20 21 23 20 19 21 23 20 19 0 0 0College Men 28 32 29 27 30 32 29 27 30 0 0 0Non College Women 23 16 31 24 19 16 31 24 19 0 0 0College Women 30 31 17 29 32 31 17 29 32 0 0 0

Age/EducationTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Young Non College 26 22 47 26 27 15 35 16 19 39 46 42Young College 23 26 16 23 25 28 21 23 28 22 22 20Older Non College 22 19 15 23 17 20 16 26 16 19 17 19Older College 24 28 19 24 26 34 25 30 33 14 10 14

White Age/EducationTotal answering (968) (117) (54) (754) (206) (117) (54) (754) (206) (0) (0) (0)Young Non College 18 15 36 17 20 15 36 17 20 0 0 0Young College 26 29 22 24 29 29 22 24 29 0 0 0Older Non College 25 20 16 27 17 20 16 27 17 0 0 0Older College 32 35 26 32 34 35 26 32 34 0 0 0

Is member of unionTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Yes: Respondent 12 100 0 0 54 100 0 0 56 100 0 50Household member 6 0 100 0 27 0 100 0 26 0 0 29No member belongs 77 0 0 100 0 0 0 100 0 0 100 0(Don't know) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Yes: Private Sector 1 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 7 0 0 7Yes: Public Sector 3 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 11 0 0 14Total Yes 16 100 0 0 73 100 0 0 74 100 0 71Total Union 22 100 100 0 100 100 100 0 100 100 0 100

White UnionTotal answering (1012) (121) (56) (787) (215) (121) (56) (787) (215) (0) (0) (0)Yes: Respondent 12 100 0 0 56 100 0 0 56 0 0 0Household member 6 0 100 0 26 0 100 0 26 0 0 0No member belongs 78 0 0 100 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0(Don't know) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Yes: Private Sector 1 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 7 0 0 0Yes: Public Sector 2 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 11 0 0 0Total Yes 16 100 0 0 74 100 0 0 74 0 0 0Total Union 21 100 100 0 100 100 100 0 100 0 0 0

Page 304

NONWT UNIONTotal UNION WHT UNION

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Married Single

Sep Divor ced

Wid owed

Sep Div Wid

Unmarr ied

Married Women

Unmarr ied

WomenMarried

MenUnmarr ied Men

Voted in person

Voted by mail

Latino EducationTotal answering (287) (141) (112) (20) (10) (30) (142) (79) (81) (62) (62) (147) (77)Non College 76 69 81 89 84 87 83 69 84 68 81 73 64College grad 24 30 19 11 16 13 17 30 16 31 19 26 35

Gender/EducationTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Non College Men 23 20 33 17 16 17 27 0 0 41 61 24 18College Men 24 29 17 19 11 16 17 0 0 58 38 25 24Non College Women 27 22 31 33 47 38 34 44 61 0 0 26 26College Women 25 28 18 31 25 28 22 55 39 0 0 24 30

White Gender/EducationTotal answering (1006) (607) (218) (105) (68) (173) (391) (299) (223) (308) (168) (456) (458)Non College Men 20 18 32 13 17 14 24 0 0 34 56 20 18College Men 28 33 20 23 10 18 19 0 0 66 44 31 25Non College Women 23 19 24 30 46 36 29 39 51 0 0 21 24College Women 30 30 25 35 27 32 28 61 49 0 0 29 33

Age/EducationTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Young Non College 26 18 53 18 2 12 38 19 34 18 42 28 15Young College 23 27 27 9 1 5 19 29 17 24 22 27 21Older Non College 22 22 10 30 58 40 21 23 24 22 17 19 27Older College 24 29 7 41 33 38 18 25 21 32 15 22 32

White Age/EducationTotal answering (968) (588) (207) (102) (65) (167) (373) (288) (214) (300) (160) (439) (440)Young Non College 18 14 40 8 0 5 24 13 20 14 31 17 14Young College 26 28 35 8 0 5 22 31 20 25 23 31 20Older Non College 25 23 15 33 62 45 28 25 31 21 24 23 28Older College 32 36 10 50 38 45 26 31 29 40 21 29 38

Is member of unionTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Yes: Respondent 12 13 9 16 8 13 10 9 11 16 10 14 11Household member 6 5 8 5 4 4 7 5 6 5 8 6 5No member belongs 77 77 80 74 83 78 79 79 79 74 79 75 79(Don't know) 1 0 2 0 2 1 2 1 1 0 2 1 1(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Yes: Private Sector 1 2 0 3 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1Yes: Public Sector 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 5 3 2 0 3 3Total Yes 16 18 10 21 12 17 13 15 14 21 11 19 15Total Union 22 23 18 25 15 22 19 20 20 26 19 24 20

White UnionTotal answering (1012) (610) (218) (105) (69) (174) (392) (300) (224) (310) (168) (458) (461)Yes: Respondent 12 12 8 20 8 15 11 9 12 15 11 14 10Household member 6 5 9 4 3 4 6 4 6 5 8 6 5No member belongs 78 78 80 71 85 77 78 79 78 76 78 75 81(Don't know) 1 0 2 0 2 1 1 1 1 0 2 1 1(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Yes: Private Sector 1 2 0 3 0 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1Yes: Public Sector 2 3 1 2 2 2 1 5 3 1 0 3 2Total Yes 16 17 9 25 10 19 14 16 15 18 12 19 14Total Union 21 22 18 29 13 23 20 20 21 24 19 24 19

Page 305

Total MARITAL MARITAL/GENDER 2008

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Voted in person

Voted by mail A B Cell Landline Base Latino

Latino EducationTotal answering (287) (82) (42) (142) (146) (15) (272) (45) (242)Non College 76 66 53 72 79 45 77 44 82College grad 24 33 46 27 21 55 22 55 18

Gender/EducationTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Non College Men 23 21 17 24 22 24 23 20 34College Men 24 26 28 26 22 28 23 27 10Non College Women 27 23 23 26 28 21 28 22 44College Women 25 29 31 23 28 27 25 29 11

White Gender/EducationTotal answering (1006) (379) (315) (502) (504) (135) (871) (952) (55)Non College Men 20 18 17 23 17 26 19 20 23College Men 28 30 30 28 27 28 28 28 12Non College Women 23 21 21 23 24 20 24 22 42College Women 30 31 32 26 33 27 30 30 23

Age/EducationTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Young Non College 26 15 12 28 25 39 25 19 53Young College 23 26 20 24 23 44 21 26 16Older Non College 22 27 27 21 22 5 24 21 23Older College 24 28 38 23 25 10 26 29 6

White Age/EducationTotal answering (968) (364) (305) (485) (483) (133) (835) (913) (55)Young Non College 18 8 10 20 15 40 14 17 29Young College 26 27 19 25 26 44 23 25 27Older Non College 25 30 28 24 25 6 28 24 36Older College 32 35 43 30 34 11 35 33 8

Is member of unionTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Yes: Respondent 12 14 13 12 11 13 12 13 6Household member 6 4 6 7 5 4 6 5 7No member belongs 77 77 75 74 80 79 77 77 77(Don't know) 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1Yes: Private Sector 1 1 1 2 1 0 2 1 2Yes: Public Sector 3 3 3 4 2 2 3 2 5Total Yes 16 19 17 18 14 16 16 16 13Total Union 22 22 23 24 19 20 22 22 21

White UnionTotal answering (1012) (380) (316) (504) (508) (135) (877) (957) (55)Yes: Respondent 12 12 13 13 11 13 12 12 6Household member 6 3 6 8 3 4 6 5 9No member belongs 78 80 77 73 83 82 77 78 69(Don't know) 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Yes: Private Sector 1 1 1 2 1 0 2 1 6Yes: Public Sector 2 4 2 3 1 2 2 2 10Total Yes 16 17 16 18 13 14 16 15 22Total Union 21 19 22 26 17 18 22 21 31

Page 306

PHONE SAMPLETotal 2006 SPLIT

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LIKELY

Likely Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS

Reg Rep Not ID Rep

Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Mod erate

Conser vative

Racial/ethnic groupTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)White 67 74 60 68 80 61 79 63 65 57 66 69 70Af-Amer. or Black 5 4 8 3 2 6 2 6 4 3 7 4 4Latino 19 15 23 19 11 24 13 17 21 26 21 17 19Native American 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 2 2 1 0 2Asian 4 3 5 4 5 4 3 10 2 4 4 6 3(Other) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 5 1 3 1(Don't know) 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 4 0 1 2(Will not identify) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1(Multi-Racial) 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1

Born in the US?Total answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)The U.S. 84 88 81 88 87 81 90 77 91 79 85 84 85Another country 16 12 19 12 12 18 9 22 8 19 15 16 15(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 0

Hispanic how long in US?Total answering (115) (38) (76) (21) (12) (78) (13) (20) (8) (18) (27) (43) (38)0-5 30 12 19 39 61 26 45 31 48 56 29 34 276-10 26 20 32 21 7 30 9 18 11 18 23 24 2611+ 43 65 46 40 32 41 45 49 40 26 45 40 46(DK/Ref) 2 2 3 0 0 2 0 3 0 0 2 2 2

How often attend churchTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)More than once/week 8 7 6 8 11 6 12 7 12 8 2 6 16Once a week 28 26 24 25 36 24 35 26 31 29 20 25 37Monthly or less 32 32 35 30 31 36 30 26 31 32 30 38 28Never 30 32 33 36 21 31 22 39 22 29 47 30 18(Don't know) 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0(Refuse) 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 0 1 1Weekly or more 36 34 30 33 47 30 47 33 43 36 22 31 53

Marital statusTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Married 57 66 55 54 66 56 67 47 68 51 46 58 70Single 26 17 29 27 19 25 17 39 16 24 34 27 15Sep/Divorced 9 8 9 10 9 10 8 10 6 16 13 8 8Widowed 6 6 7 6 5 7 6 3 6 6 5 6 6(Don't know) 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 0(Refuse) 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 4 2 0 1 1Sep/Div/Wid 15 14 16 16 15 17 14 13 13 21 18 14 14Unmarried 41 32 44 43 33 43 31 52 28 45 52 41 29

Marital/GenderTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Married Women 29 33 31 23 33 30 33 24 33 23 26 28 35Unmarried Women 23 19 25 24 17 26 16 26 15 30 27 25 17Married Men 28 34 24 32 33 26 34 23 35 28 21 30 34Unmarried Men 18 13 19 19 17 17 15 26 13 15 25 16 12

Page 307

IDEOLOGYTotal PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated Right Wrong

Racial/ethnic groupTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)White 67 68 58 71 83 54 66 58 77 82 60 49 70Af-Amer. or Black 5 7 7 3 2 4 5 7 3 1 7 11 5Latino 19 19 26 16 10 22 20 27 14 12 18 34 16Native American 1 0 0 0 2 2 1 0 0 2 1 1 1Asian 4 4 5 6 2 6 5 3 4 2 7 6 4(Other) 2 1 2 4 1 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 2(Don't know) 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0(Refuse) 2 0 1 1 2 5 0 1 1 2 3 0 2(Will not identify) 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0(Multi-Racial) 1 0 1 0 0 3 0 1 0 0 1 1 1

Born in the US?Total answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)The U.S. 84 85 79 83 90 81 84 80 87 92 79 71 86Another country 16 15 21 16 9 16 16 20 12 8 19 29 14(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refused) 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 1 0 2 0 0

Hispanic how long in US?Total answering (115) (23) (58) (11) (7) (15) (22) (51) (7) (6) (29) (25) (74)0-5 30 22 21 78 44 35 29 25 54 37 31 28 316-10 26 23 33 3 11 25 25 31 7 12 25 23 2411+ 43 52 44 19 45 38 42 43 39 52 41 45 44(DK/Ref) 2 3 2 0 0 2 3 1 0 0 3 4 1

How often attend churchTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)More than once/week 8 2 9 4 16 11 3 9 6 16 7 9 8Once a week 28 19 26 33 37 27 20 28 29 38 25 33 27Monthly or less 32 30 39 39 27 24 33 40 35 27 26 31 32Never 30 48 26 23 19 32 43 23 28 18 38 27 30(Don't know) 1 1 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 1(Refuse) 1 0 0 1 1 5 0 1 1 1 2 0 1Weekly or more 36 21 34 37 53 38 22 36 35 54 33 41 35

Marital statusTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Married 57 47 57 61 70 53 49 63 65 72 45 42 60Single 26 34 28 23 14 28 31 21 16 14 38 43 23Sep/Divorced 9 12 8 10 9 7 14 7 11 7 9 9 9Widowed 6 5 6 5 6 7 5 8 7 6 5 6 6(Don't know) 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 1 0 1 1 1 4 0 1 1 1 2 0 1Sep/Div/Wid 15 17 14 16 15 14 18 15 17 13 14 15 15Unmarried 41 51 42 38 29 42 49 36 34 27 53 58 38

Marital/GenderTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Married Women 29 26 32 28 35 19 26 34 32 35 20 21 30Unmarried Women 23 27 26 20 16 23 28 23 18 14 27 33 21Married Men 28 21 25 33 35 34 23 28 33 36 25 21 31Unmarried Men 18 25 15 19 13 19 21 13 16 13 25 25 17

Page 308

Total PTY/IDEO PTYREG/IDEO STATE DIR

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

10 8-10 6-10 0-5 0-7 BrownWhit man Und Ref

Racial/ethnic groupTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)White 67 73 67 68 65 67 67 71 49Af-Amer. or Black 5 4 5 4 8 5 5 5 6Latino 19 14 19 19 18 19 21 15 29Native American 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 3Asian 4 2 4 4 5 6 4 4 9(Other) 2 3 3 2 1 1 2 2 2(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2(Refuse) 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 3(Will not identify) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1(Multi-Racial) 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0

Born in the US?Total answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)The U.S. 84 84 83 83 86 85 84 87 69Another country 16 16 17 16 14 14 16 12 31(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refused) 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1

Hispanic how long in US?Total answering (115) (35) (67) (84) (27) (45) (62) (25) (26)0-5 30 20 21 24 49 45 23 33 406-10 26 34 31 28 17 16 24 30 2811+ 43 43 47 46 34 36 51 37 32(DK/Ref) 2 3 1 2 0 2 3 1 1

How often attend churchTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)More than once/week 8 9 9 8 9 8 7 9 7Once a week 28 33 33 30 22 22 24 32 32Monthly or less 32 31 31 30 37 33 33 34 24Never 30 25 27 30 30 34 35 24 32(Don't know) 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1(Refuse) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4Weekly or more 36 43 41 38 31 30 31 41 39

Marital statusTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Married 57 68 65 60 52 50 56 61 52Single 26 14 18 24 30 34 26 24 27Sep/Divorced 9 9 9 8 12 9 11 8 9Widowed 6 7 6 6 5 5 6 5 8(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2(Refuse) 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 2 2Sep/Div/Wid 15 16 15 14 17 15 17 13 17Unmarried 41 30 34 39 47 49 43 37 44

Marital/GenderTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Married Women 29 33 30 28 31 28 28 31 28Unmarried Women 23 16 19 21 27 27 26 19 27Married Men 28 35 34 32 21 22 28 31 24Unmarried Men 18 13 15 17 20 22 18 18 17

Page 309

Total ENTHUSIASM GOV VOTE

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Racial/ethnic groupTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)White 67 75 58 59 46 48 59 62 79 70 53 53 75 53Af-Amer. or Black 5 4 4 4 8 9 8 6 3 4 5 8 4 7Latino 19 14 30 28 33 24 27 25 9 18 30 25 13 27Native American 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 1 1 1Asian 4 2 7 6 9 11 7 4 2 4 8 9 2 8(Other) 2 2 1 2 3 3 1 0 3 2 2 2 2 2(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0(Refuse) 2 1 0 1 2 2 2 2 3 1 1 2 3 2(Will not identify) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0(Multi-Racial) 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1

Born in the US?Total answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)The U.S. 84 88 77 76 83 74 78 83 89 85 79 76 88 77Another country 16 12 23 24 17 25 22 14 10 15 21 24 11 23(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0

Hispanic how long in US?Total answering (115) (21) (19) (12) (9) (20) (14) (10) (9) (40) (22) (34) (19) (56)0-5 30 15 34 34 3 46 36 34 26 24 21 42 30 346-10 26 22 23 14 42 27 25 37 22 23 26 27 30 2611+ 43 63 41 52 41 25 36 30 52 53 47 30 40 36(DK/Ref) 2 0 2 0 14 2 2 0 0 1 6 2 0 4

How often attend churchTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)More than once/week 8 6 9 8 10 8 7 7 11 7 9 8 10 8Once a week 28 19 29 27 34 29 25 23 36 22 30 28 33 28Monthly or less 32 35 24 32 36 33 31 40 28 32 34 32 31 33Never 30 38 36 32 20 29 33 26 23 38 27 31 24 29(Don't know) 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0(Refuse) 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 3 1 1 0 1 2 1Weekly or more 36 25 38 35 44 37 32 31 47 28 39 35 42 36

Marital statusTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Married 57 58 54 50 56 57 43 46 69 57 53 51 63 52Single 26 21 33 32 36 27 45 38 15 24 34 35 21 34Sep/Divorced 9 12 10 10 5 9 5 10 8 12 8 7 9 8Widowed 6 8 3 6 3 5 5 3 7 7 5 5 6 5(Don't know) 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1(Refuse) 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 1 0 1 2 1Sep/Div/Wid 15 20 13 16 8 14 11 13 15 18 13 13 14 13Unmarried 41 41 46 49 44 41 55 51 30 42 47 47 35 47

Marital/GenderTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Married Women 29 30 25 25 28 29 22 26 33 29 26 26 31 26Unmarried Women 23 26 25 31 15 19 27 32 16 26 24 23 20 23Married Men 28 27 29 25 29 28 20 20 36 28 27 25 32 25Unmarried Men 18 15 21 17 29 22 29 19 14 16 22 25 15 24

Page 310

Total BROWN VCS

Page 311: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Racial/ethnic groupTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)White 67 80 70 59 44 47 59 55 74 78 51 53 68 52Af-Amer. or Black 5 3 6 12 11 7 4 4 5 4 11 5 4 8Latino 19 9 19 28 24 30 26 31 14 11 26 28 19 28Native American 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1Asian 4 2 3 3 15 9 8 6 3 2 9 9 4 9(Other) 2 3 0 1 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2(Don't know) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0(Refuse) 2 3 2 3 0 3 1 1 1 3 2 2 1 2(Will not identify) 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0(Multi-Racial) 1 0 1 1 4 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 0 1

Born in the US?Total answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)The U.S. 84 90 85 86 78 73 75 77 88 89 82 74 84 77Another country 16 10 12 13 22 26 25 23 12 10 18 26 15 23(Don't know) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refused) 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0

Hispanic how long in US?Total answering (115) (7) (5) (5) (8) (22) (17) (27) (23) (13) (13) (39) (50) (52)0-5 30 19 23 45 43 24 40 35 17 21 44 31 27 346-10 26 26 40 19 33 35 16 25 20 32 27 27 23 2711+ 43 55 36 29 25 33 44 38 63 47 27 38 49 35(DK/Ref) 2 0 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 3 4 1 4

How often attend churchTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)More than once/week 8 10 8 6 9 10 9 8 6 10 7 10 7 9Once a week 28 37 20 30 29 32 24 30 20 33 29 28 23 29Monthly or less 32 29 43 35 41 34 27 26 34 32 38 31 31 33Never 30 23 27 27 21 23 38 33 39 24 24 31 37 28(Don't know) 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 1 0(Refuse) 1 1 2 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Weekly or more 36 47 28 35 38 42 33 38 26 42 37 38 30 37

Marital statusTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Married 57 71 49 37 55 55 53 52 56 66 46 54 55 51Single 26 13 37 51 32 31 32 33 21 19 42 32 25 35Sep/Divorced 9 9 8 6 5 7 8 10 12 8 6 8 12 7Widowed 6 5 3 5 7 5 5 3 9 5 6 5 7 5(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1(Refuse) 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 1 1 1 1Sep/Div/Wid 15 14 11 11 12 12 14 14 21 13 11 13 19 12Unmarried 41 27 49 62 44 43 46 46 43 32 53 44 44 48

Marital/GenderTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Married Women 29 34 27 15 34 24 26 29 29 33 24 25 29 25Unmarried Women 23 14 30 30 17 18 28 26 27 18 23 23 27 23Married Men 28 37 22 22 21 31 27 24 27 33 22 29 26 26Unmarried Men 18 13 18 31 28 25 17 21 15 14 30 21 17 24

Page 311

Total WHITMAN VCS

Page 312: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Brown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

better

Govt back

groundBiz back ground

Brown better

Whit man

better Boxer Fiorina DK/ Ref

Racial/ethnic groupTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)White 67 67 72 62 74 62 72 69 66 66 73 64 77 44Af-Amer. or Black 5 5 4 7 3 6 4 6 4 6 4 6 5 4Latino 19 19 13 22 13 24 14 16 22 21 13 22 11 37Native American 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1Asian 4 5 4 6 4 5 4 5 4 3 5 5 3 8(Other) 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3(Don't know) 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0(Refuse) 2 1 3 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 3(Will not identify) 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0(Multi-Racial) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0

Born in the US?Total answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)The U.S. 84 84 85 83 87 82 87 85 83 84 86 80 90 79Another country 16 15 14 17 12 18 13 14 17 16 13 20 9 20(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refused) 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1

Hispanic how long in US?Total answering (115) (50) (24) (50) (24) (51) (30) (45) (59) (42) (32) (88) (9) (16)0-5 30 27 29 25 30 27 41 23 35 22 43 27 26 436-10 26 24 39 21 41 21 27 21 30 18 26 25 33 2111+ 43 48 30 52 27 49 32 51 35 58 29 46 36 34(DK/Ref) 2 1 3 2 3 2 0 4 0 2 2 2 4 2

How often attend churchTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)More than once/week 8 7 9 7 8 7 9 8 8 6 9 7 10 8Once a week 28 24 31 25 30 24 30 23 32 24 31 22 34 31Monthly or less 32 34 32 33 34 34 33 34 31 35 33 35 30 24Never 30 34 27 34 26 33 27 34 27 34 25 35 24 33(Don't know) 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1(Refuse) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3Weekly or more 36 31 40 32 38 31 39 30 40 30 40 29 44 39

Marital statusTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Married 57 57 65 57 62 58 61 57 60 56 62 55 64 46Single 26 25 22 25 23 23 25 25 26 23 24 28 20 35Sep/Divorced 9 11 7 10 9 11 9 10 9 12 8 11 8 8Widowed 6 6 4 7 4 8 4 7 4 7 4 5 6 8(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3(Refuse) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1Sep/Div/Wid 15 17 12 17 13 18 13 17 12 20 13 16 14 16Unmarried 41 42 34 42 36 41 38 42 38 43 36 44 34 50

Marital/GenderTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Married Women 29 29 32 26 33 29 30 29 30 30 31 30 28 28Unmarried Women 23 25 17 26 19 25 20 25 18 22 20 26 18 32Married Men 28 28 33 30 28 29 31 28 30 26 31 25 36 18Unmarried Men 18 17 17 17 18 16 18 16 20 21 17 19 16 18

Page 312

ENERGY BCKGRND ECONOMY SEN VOTETotal UNDERSTAND CLEAR PLAN

Page 313: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Racial/ethnic groupTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)White 67 71 61 57 50 49 58 59 80 68 54 53 76 53Af-Amer. or Black 5 6 5 6 3 6 11 3 3 6 5 8 3 6Latino 19 13 23 35 33 31 18 26 10 16 34 25 13 30Native American 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 0 0 1 2 1Asian 4 5 6 1 9 7 9 5 2 5 5 8 2 6(Other) 2 2 1 4 3 2 2 1 2 1 4 2 2 3(Don't know) 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 2 1 1 1 0 4 1 3 2 1 1 2 3 1(Will not identify) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0(Multi-Racial) 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 1

Born in the US?Total answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)The U.S. 84 84 80 76 71 84 80 81 92 83 73 82 90 77Another country 16 16 19 24 29 15 20 17 8 17 26 17 10 23(Don't know) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refused) 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 0

Hispanic how long in US?Total answering (115) (24) (16) (26) (22) (9) (7) (5) (7) (40) (48) (15) (12) (63)0-5 30 21 14 33 35 58 32 21 32 18 34 47 28 376-10 26 20 34 20 30 16 55 0 33 26 25 33 19 2711+ 43 57 52 44 32 22 13 72 35 55 38 18 50 33(DK/Ref) 2 1 0 3 3 4 0 7 0 1 3 2 3 3

How often attend churchTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)More than once/week 8 5 7 9 9 7 10 10 10 6 9 8 10 9Once a week 28 19 21 28 30 30 38 25 35 19 29 34 33 31Monthly or less 32 37 35 31 31 32 24 24 31 36 31 28 30 30Never 30 38 37 30 29 28 27 37 22 37 29 28 25 29(Don't know) 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1(Refuse) 1 1 1 0 1 2 0 3 1 1 1 1 2 1Weekly or more 36 24 27 37 39 37 48 36 46 25 38 42 44 40

Marital statusTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Married 57 60 58 43 45 43 45 51 69 59 44 44 66 44Single 26 18 33 41 44 40 35 33 15 22 43 38 19 41Sep/Divorced 9 13 7 11 6 6 14 6 8 11 9 9 8 9Widowed 6 8 2 4 4 8 5 6 6 6 4 7 6 5(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1(Refuse) 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 1 1 0 2 1Sep/Div/Wid 15 21 9 15 10 13 19 13 14 17 13 16 14 14Unmarried 41 39 41 56 54 54 55 46 29 40 55 54 33 55

Marital/GenderTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Married Women 29 32 33 20 28 16 36 26 30 32 24 25 29 24Unmarried Women 23 23 21 31 34 31 32 29 14 22 33 32 17 32Married Men 28 28 25 23 16 27 9 25 39 27 20 19 36 19Unmarried Men 18 16 20 25 20 22 22 17 15 17 22 22 16 22

Page 313

Total BOXER VCS

Page 314: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Racial/ethnic groupTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)White 67 82 67 59 48 57 58 70 80 58 52 66 53Af-Amer. or Black 5 3 5 15 4 5 4 6 3 15 5 6 7Latino 19 9 17 16 33 33 27 15 10 17 33 19 30Native American 1 2 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1Asian 4 2 3 8 8 3 7 5 2 9 6 5 6(Other) 2 2 2 1 3 5 1 2 2 0 4 1 3(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0(Refuse) 2 2 4 1 2 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 1(Will not identify) 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0(Multi-Racial) 1 0 3 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1

Born in the US?Total answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)The U.S. 84 92 81 83 74 76 80 84 91 86 75 83 77Another country 16 7 15 17 26 24 19 16 9 14 25 17 23(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refused) 0 0 3 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0

Hispanic how long in US?Total answering (115) (4) (2) (2) (31) (29) (19) (26) (6) (3) (61) (45) (64)0-5 30 36 37 13 44 33 14 23 36 10 38 19 376-10 26 33 0 69 26 24 28 23 23 51 25 25 2611+ 43 31 42 18 28 41 58 54 35 39 34 55 34(DK/Ref) 2 0 20 0 3 3 0 1 6 0 3 1 3

How often attend churchTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)More than once/week 8 10 10 12 8 8 7 6 10 10 8 6 9Once a week 28 36 30 36 34 28 20 19 35 30 31 19 31Monthly or less 32 31 25 24 27 30 35 36 30 32 28 36 29Never 30 21 32 27 30 31 37 37 23 27 30 37 30(Don't know) 1 1 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 1 0 1(Refuse) 1 1 2 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Weekly or more 36 46 40 48 42 37 27 25 45 40 40 26 40

Marital statusTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Married 57 71 55 39 46 43 56 59 69 38 45 58 44Single 26 13 31 37 40 42 32 19 16 43 41 23 41Sep/Divorced 9 8 7 16 6 10 7 13 8 11 8 11 8Widowed 6 6 5 7 6 4 3 8 6 7 5 6 6(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1(Refuse) 1 2 2 0 1 1 1 1 2 0 1 1 1Sep/Div/Wid 15 13 12 24 12 14 10 21 13 18 13 18 14Unmarried 41 27 44 61 52 56 42 40 29 61 54 41 55

Marital/GenderTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Married Women 29 31 21 28 26 23 33 31 29 23 25 32 24Unmarried Women 23 13 26 35 32 34 22 23 15 33 33 23 33Married Men 28 40 34 11 20 21 23 28 39 15 20 26 19Unmarried Men 18 14 17 26 20 22 21 17 14 28 21 18 22

Page 314

Total FIORINA VCS

Page 315: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Support Obama

Oppose Obama

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better Favor Oppose

Impor tant

Not Impor tant

Racial/ethnic groupTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)White 67 61 78 61 77 65 76 65 77 66 71 64 77Af-Amer. or Black 5 6 3 7 4 6 4 7 4 5 3 5 4Latino 19 23 13 22 11 19 13 19 13 17 18 22 11Native American 1 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1Asian 4 6 2 4 3 5 2 4 2 5 4 6 1(Other) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 3(Don't know) 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1(Refuse) 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 2(Will not identify) 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1(Multi-Racial) 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0

Born in the US?Total answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)The U.S. 84 80 90 80 90 81 90 83 88 82 88 81 92Another country 16 19 9 19 9 19 10 17 11 17 12 18 7(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refused) 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1

Hispanic how long in US?Total answering (115) (93) (11) (68) (13) (62) (13) (55) (14) (49) (29) (105) (8)0-5 30 27 55 26 32 23 36 28 32 28 27 30 286-10 26 29 15 28 30 24 25 23 35 32 30 26 2511+ 43 42 30 44 38 50 39 47 31 40 38 42 47(DK/Ref) 2 2 0 2 0 3 0 2 2 1 5 2 0

How often attend churchTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)More than once/week 8 7 11 8 9 6 12 7 10 8 6 7 12Once a week 28 23 35 24 34 22 36 23 35 29 25 26 31Monthly or less 32 34 29 36 31 35 31 36 31 33 33 34 27Never 30 35 23 31 24 36 19 33 22 28 35 31 28(Don't know) 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0(Refuse) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Weekly or more 36 30 46 32 43 27 48 30 45 37 31 33 43

Marital statusTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Married 57 54 62 56 66 58 67 57 67 61 55 55 66Single 26 29 21 25 19 24 18 24 17 27 27 27 21Sep/Divorced 9 10 9 12 8 11 8 12 9 7 11 10 7Widowed 6 5 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 3 6 6 6(Don't know) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0(Refuse) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1Sep/Div/Wid 15 15 15 18 13 17 13 18 15 11 17 16 13Unmarried 41 44 37 43 33 41 32 42 31 37 44 43 33

Marital/GenderTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Married Women 29 28 29 32 31 32 28 30 29 28 27 30 27Unmarried Women 23 25 19 24 18 23 16 24 17 17 23 25 15Married Men 28 26 32 24 35 26 39 27 38 33 28 25 39Unmarried Men 18 19 18 19 15 18 16 18 14 20 21 18 18

Page 315

SHARE VALUES JOBS ECON PROP 23 GW IMPTTotal SENTYPE CHANGE

Page 316: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

White Black Latino Asian Men Women Men Women Men Women

Racial/ethnic groupTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)White 67 100 8 2 0 67 67 100 100 2 3Af-Amer. or Black 5 1 100 0 0 5 5 1 0 0 0Latino 19 1 0 100 0 18 20 0 1 100 100Native American 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1Asian 4 0 0 0 100 5 4 0 0 0 0(Other) 2 0 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 0(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 2 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0(Will not identify) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Multi-Racial) 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

Born in the US?Total answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)The U.S. 84 93 89 67 37 83 84 91 94 67 67Another country 16 7 11 33 63 16 15 9 6 33 33(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0

Hispanic how long in US?Total answering (115) (10) (0) (94) (0) (50) (65) (3) (7) (42) (52)0-5 30 6 0 34 0 26 32 18 0 29 386-10 26 43 0 23 0 26 25 33 48 26 2011+ 43 51 0 41 0 45 41 49 52 42 40(DK/Ref) 2 0 0 2 0 2 2 0 0 2 2

How often attend churchTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)More than once/week 8 6 13 12 10 7 9 5 7 11 14Once a week 28 25 41 35 27 25 30 22 27 30 39Monthly or less 32 32 28 30 40 33 32 32 32 33 28Never 30 36 18 22 21 34 27 40 32 26 19(Don't know) 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1(Refuse) 1 1 0 0 2 1 2 1 1 0 0Weekly or more 36 31 54 48 37 32 39 27 34 41 53

Marital statusTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Married 57 60 50 49 64 61 55 65 56 49 49Single 26 22 34 39 32 28 24 23 20 39 39Sep/Divorced 9 10 11 7 2 7 11 8 13 8 7Widowed 6 7 5 3 1 3 8 4 9 2 5(Don't know) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0(Refuse) 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 0Sep/Div/Wid 15 17 16 11 4 11 19 12 22 10 11Unmarried 41 39 50 50 36 38 43 35 42 49 50

Marital/GenderTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Married Women 29 30 21 28 38 0 55 0 56 0 49Unmarried Women 23 22 31 28 15 0 43 0 42 0 50Married Men 28 31 29 22 27 61 0 65 0 49 0Unmarried Men 18 17 20 22 21 38 0 35 0 49 0

Page 316

WHT GEN LAT GENTotal RACE GENDER

Page 317: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over

Racial/ethnic groupTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)White 67 41 61 65 77 82 56 79Af-Amer. or Black 5 4 8 8 3 3 7 3Latino 19 44 21 16 12 10 27 11Native American 1 1 0 0 2 1 0 1Asian 4 8 8 5 3 0 7 2(Other) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2(Don't know) 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0(Refuse) 2 2 0 1 2 1 1 2(Will not identify) 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1(Multi-Racial) 1 1 0 2 1 1 1 1

Born in the US?Total answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)The U.S. 84 90 83 74 86 86 82 86Another country 16 9 17 25 14 14 17 14(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refused) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hispanic how long in US?Total answering (115) (10) (17) (30) (34) (18) (58) (53)0-5 30 64 44 28 18 16 39 186-10 26 11 39 30 26 14 29 2211+ 43 25 17 40 55 61 30 57(DK/Ref) 2 0 0 2 0 8 1 3

How often attend churchTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)More than once/week 8 7 3 10 10 8 7 9Once a week 28 22 27 28 28 33 25 30Monthly or less 32 32 32 37 32 28 34 31Never 30 37 36 25 29 29 33 29(Don't know) 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0(Refuse) 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1Weekly or more 36 29 29 37 38 41 32 39

Marital statusTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Married 57 12 71 74 71 54 52 64Single 26 82 25 17 11 6 41 9Sep/Divorced 9 3 4 7 15 13 5 14Widowed 6 1 0 0 2 26 0 12(Don't know) 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0(Refuse) 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0Sep/Div/Wid 15 4 4 8 17 39 5 26Unmarried 41 86 29 24 28 45 47 35

Marital/GenderTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Married Women 29 8 36 40 33 26 28 30Unmarried Women 23 43 13 14 16 32 23 23Married Men 28 4 35 34 38 28 24 34Unmarried Men 18 44 16 10 12 13 23 12

Page 317

Total AGE

Page 318: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over 18-29 30-4950 and

over 18-4950 and

over

Racial/ethnic groupTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)White 67 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 2 2 3 2 3Af-Amer. or Black 5 5 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0Latino 19 2 1 0 1 0 1 0 100 100 100 100 100Native American 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 0Asian 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Other) 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Will not identify) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Multi-Racial) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Born in the US?Total answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)The U.S. 84 99 95 87 95 90 92 93 91 56 49 75 49Another country 16 1 5 13 5 10 8 7 9 44 51 25 51(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hispanic how long in US?Total answering (115) (0) (0) (3) (4) (3) (3) (7) (10) (41) (39) (51) (39)0-5 30 0 0 0 0 19 0 8 64 38 20 43 206-10 26 0 0 100 25 18 100 22 11 26 23 23 2311+ 43 0 0 0 75 63 0 70 25 34 54 32 54(DK/Ref) 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 1 3

How often attend churchTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)More than once/week 8 3 1 9 8 7 5 7 7 14 18 10 18Once a week 28 13 19 24 27 31 20 28 31 35 40 33 40Monthly or less 32 35 28 34 32 31 32 32 29 32 29 31 29Never 30 49 50 32 33 30 42 32 33 17 12 26 12(Don't know) 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1(Refuse) 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0Weekly or more 36 16 20 33 34 37 25 36 38 49 58 43 58

Marital statusTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Married 57 14 71 75 69 54 58 63 12 77 69 41 69Single 26 83 26 18 12 6 37 9 84 11 8 51 8Sep/Divorced 9 3 3 5 17 14 4 15 0 12 12 6 12Widowed 6 0 0 0 2 26 0 12 1 0 11 1 11(Don't know) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 1(Refuse) 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0Sep/Div/Wid 15 3 3 5 18 39 4 27 1 12 23 6 23Unmarried 41 86 29 23 30 46 41 37 85 23 31 57 31

Marital/GenderTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Married Women 29 8 32 42 32 26 30 29 8 45 34 25 34Unmarried Women 23 39 11 16 17 32 20 23 47 11 22 31 22Married Men 28 6 39 32 37 28 28 33 4 32 35 17 35Unmarried Men 18 46 18 7 13 13 21 13 38 13 9 27 9

Page 318

Total WHT AGE LAT AGE

Page 319: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Young Women

Young Men

Older Women

Older Men

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Racial/ethnic groupTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)White 67 55 57 79 80 50 61 76 79 57 78Af-Amer. or Black 5 7 7 3 3 6 6 5 3 6 4Latino 19 29 25 11 10 37 24 11 8 29 9Native American 1 1 0 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1Asian 4 7 7 2 1 2 3 6 6 3 6(Other) 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0(Refuse) 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 1(Will not identify) 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0(Multi-Racial) 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Born in the US?Total answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)The U.S. 84 83 82 87 85 68 88 88 87 81 87Another country 16 17 18 13 14 32 12 12 13 19 12(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refused) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0

Hispanic how long in US?Total answering (115) (33) (25) (29) (24) (72) (26) (10) (6) (97) (17)0-5 30 42 36 17 18 32 29 22 13 31 186-10 26 30 28 21 23 31 15 9 36 27 2011+ 43 28 33 57 58 34 56 69 51 39 62(DK/Ref) 2 0 3 4 1 3 0 0 0 2 0

How often attend churchTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)More than once/week 8 7 7 10 8 15 8 6 4 11 6Once a week 28 27 24 33 26 33 26 29 23 29 26Monthly or less 32 35 32 28 34 26 32 35 34 30 35Never 30 28 37 28 30 23 32 29 37 29 32(Don't know) 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0(Refuse) 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Weekly or more 36 34 30 44 34 48 35 35 28 40 32

Marital statusTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Married 57 53 50 56 73 53 47 64 70 49 66Single 26 39 44 9 9 28 36 23 13 33 19Sep/Divorced 9 6 4 18 11 9 10 7 13 9 10Widowed 6 0 0 16 7 9 7 5 3 7 4(Don't know) 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0(Refuse) 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1Sep/Div/Wid 15 6 4 34 17 18 16 12 16 17 14Unmarried 41 45 49 43 27 46 52 35 29 50 32

Marital/GenderTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Married Women 29 53 0 56 0 28 24 29 37 26 33Unmarried Women 23 45 0 43 0 27 28 20 16 28 18Married Men 28 0 50 0 73 25 23 35 33 23 34Unmarried Men 18 0 49 0 27 19 24 15 12 22 14

Page 319

Total GENDER/AGE EDUCATION

Page 320: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Non College College

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Racial/ethnic groupTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)White 67 100 100 100 100 100 100 2 4 57 78 57 78Af-Amer. or Black 5 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 6 5 6 4Latino 19 0 1 1 0 1 0 100 100 27 9 30 10Native American 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1Asian 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 3 6(Other) 2 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 3 2 1 2(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0(Refuse) 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 1(Will not identify) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Multi-Racial) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0

Born in the US?Total answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)The U.S. 84 86 95 94 91 92 93 63 80 83 84 79 90Another country 16 14 4 6 9 7 7 37 20 17 16 21 9(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0

Hispanic how long in US?Total answering (115) (7) (1) (1) (0) (8) (1) (81) (13) (39) (10) (58) (7)0-5 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 19 26 26 35 86-10 26 63 0 0 0 54 0 23 20 30 15 25 2711+ 43 37 100 100 0 46 100 38 61 42 59 38 65(DK/Ref) 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 3 0 2 0

How often attend churchTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)More than once/week 8 14 6 6 3 8 5 14 7 9 6 13 5Once a week 28 25 25 26 23 25 24 36 32 25 25 32 28Monthly or less 32 23 31 36 33 29 35 29 32 31 34 28 35Never 30 33 38 32 40 37 36 20 28 34 33 24 31(Don't know) 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0(Refuse) 1 2 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 1Weekly or more 36 39 30 32 26 33 29 50 39 34 31 45 33

Marital statusTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Married 57 50 52 64 70 52 67 45 63 51 70 47 63Single 26 27 28 22 11 28 17 42 31 37 19 30 18Sep/Divorced 9 8 11 8 14 10 11 8 3 7 8 12 11Widowed 6 14 8 6 3 10 4 4 2 4 3 10 6(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1(Refuse) 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1Sep/Div/Wid 15 22 19 13 17 20 15 12 6 11 10 22 17Unmarried 41 49 47 35 28 48 32 54 36 48 29 52 35

Marital/GenderTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Married Women 29 26 28 27 38 27 32 25 35 0 0 47 63Unmarried Women 23 31 24 20 18 26 19 31 19 0 0 52 35Married Men 28 24 25 37 32 25 35 20 28 51 70 0 0Unmarried Men 18 19 23 15 10 22 13 23 17 48 29 0 0

Page 320

GENDER/EDUCTotal WHT EDUC LAT EDUC

Page 321: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Racial/ethnic groupTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)White 67 100 100 100 100 43 70 73 85 100 100 100 100Af-Amer. or Black 5 0 2 0 0 8 6 2 3 0 2 0 0Latino 19 0 1 1 0 40 14 17 5 1 1 1 0Native American 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 1 1Asian 4 0 0 0 0 5 9 1 3 0 0 0 0(Other) 2 0 1 0 1 2 2 2 2 0 1 0 1(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 0(Will not identify) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0(Multi-Racial) 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0

Born in the US?Total answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)The U.S. 84 93 90 92 96 80 85 82 90 93 92 92 94Another country 16 7 10 8 4 20 15 18 10 7 8 8 6(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hispanic how long in US?Total answering (115) (2) (1) (6) (1) (51) (7) (43) (10) (3) (0) (5) (1)0-5 30 0 0 0 0 40 37 20 5 0 0 0 06-10 26 60 0 52 0 29 31 25 11 100 0 30 011+ 43 40 100 48 100 30 32 52 84 0 0 70 100(DK/Ref) 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 4 0 0 0 0 0

How often attend churchTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)More than once/week 8 5 5 11 4 9 4 13 6 6 4 10 6Once a week 28 21 23 28 26 28 23 30 30 21 19 28 29Monthly or less 32 28 35 29 35 31 37 28 32 28 35 29 34Never 30 45 37 29 34 30 35 27 31 44 41 32 32(Don't know) 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0(Refuse) 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0Weekly or more 36 26 28 39 31 37 27 43 36 27 23 37 35

Marital statusTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Married 57 53 73 50 61 40 65 60 68 47 66 56 68Single 26 34 16 22 18 52 30 11 7 48 29 13 7Sep/Divorced 9 7 9 13 12 6 3 13 16 5 3 14 17Widowed 6 6 3 13 6 1 0 16 8 0 0 17 8(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0(Refuse) 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0Sep/Div/Wid 15 12 11 27 19 7 4 29 24 5 3 31 24Unmarried 41 47 27 49 37 59 34 40 31 53 32 44 31

Marital/GenderTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Married Women 29 0 0 50 61 21 36 31 30 23 36 30 29Unmarried Women 23 0 0 49 37 30 17 26 20 24 17 28 20Married Men 28 53 73 0 0 20 29 29 38 24 30 26 39Unmarried Men 18 47 27 0 0 29 17 14 11 29 15 16 11

Page 321

Total WHT GEN/EDUC AGE/EDUC WHT AGE/EDUC

Page 322: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

MemberHhold

memberNo

memberTotal Union Member

Hhold member

No member

Total Union Member

No member

Total Union

Racial/ethnic groupTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)White 67 69 64 68 66 100 100 100 100 0 0 0Af-Amer. or Black 5 9 9 4 8 0 9 0 2 30 13 20Latino 19 11 21 19 17 0 0 1 0 37 58 50Native American 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 4 1 2Asian 4 4 8 5 4 0 0 0 0 11 14 12(Other) 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 6 5 6(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0(Refuse) 2 2 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 7 4 5(Will not identify) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1(Multi-Racial) 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 4 2 4

Born in the US?Total answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)The U.S. 84 89 87 82 89 96 97 91 97 74 64 74Another country 16 11 13 17 11 4 3 8 3 25 36 26(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0

Hispanic how long in US?Total answering (115) (5) (5) (100) (14) (0) (0) (10) (0) (5) (91) (14)0-5 30 23 35 30 26 0 0 6 0 23 33 266-10 26 23 22 26 23 0 0 43 0 23 24 2311+ 43 54 44 42 47 0 0 51 0 54 41 47(DK/Ref) 2 0 0 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 4

How often attend churchTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)More than once/week 8 7 11 8 8 3 2 7 3 14 11 16Once a week 28 27 37 27 31 23 35 23 29 34 33 36Monthly or less 32 36 20 33 31 38 20 32 32 32 34 29Never 30 30 32 31 30 36 43 36 36 19 20 17(Don't know) 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1(Refuse) 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1Weekly or more 36 33 49 35 39 27 38 31 32 48 44 53

Marital statusTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Married 57 62 50 57 61 62 52 60 62 62 50 60Single 26 19 35 27 22 15 34 22 18 29 36 28Sep/Divorced 9 13 7 9 11 17 8 9 14 4 8 5Widowed 6 4 4 6 4 5 4 7 4 4 4 4(Don't know) 0 1 3 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 2(Refuse) 1 0 2 1 1 0 2 1 1 1 1 0Sep/Div/Wid 15 17 11 15 15 22 12 17 18 8 12 9Unmarried 41 37 46 42 37 37 45 39 37 37 48 38

Marital/GenderTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Married Women 29 23 25 30 27 22 23 30 28 23 29 26Unmarried Women 23 22 22 23 21 22 23 22 22 21 26 21Married Men 28 39 25 27 34 39 29 30 34 39 22 33Unmarried Men 18 15 24 19 16 15 23 17 15 16 22 17

Page 322

NONWT UNIONTotal UNION WHT UNION

Page 323: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Married Single

Sep Divor ced

Wid owed

Sep Div Wid

Unmarr ied

Married Women

Unmarr ied

WomenMarried

MenUnmarr ied Men

Voted in person

Voted by mail

Racial/ethnic groupTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)White 67 70 56 74 77 75 63 69 64 72 62 64 76Af-Amer. or Black 5 4 7 6 4 5 6 4 7 5 5 8 3Latino 19 16 29 14 11 13 23 18 23 14 23 21 13Native American 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 2Asian 4 5 6 1 1 1 4 6 3 4 5 4 4(Other) 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 3 3 1(Don't know) 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0(Refuse) 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 1 2(Will not identify) 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Multi-Racial) 1 0 1 1 2 2 1 0 1 1 2 1 1

Born in the US?Total answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)The U.S. 84 81 92 81 83 82 88 82 87 80 89 85 86Another country 16 19 8 18 16 17 11 18 12 20 10 15 13(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refused) 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

Hispanic how long in US?Total answering (115) (79) (17) (12) (6) (18) (35) (41) (23) (38) (12) (64) (28)0-5 30 28 51 19 15 17 34 31 34 25 32 25 336-10 26 26 27 31 5 22 24 30 17 23 39 29 1611+ 43 44 22 42 80 55 39 36 49 53 20 45 46(DK/Ref) 2 2 0 9 0 6 3 3 0 0 9 0 6

How often attend churchTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)More than once/week 8 9 5 9 9 9 7 10 8 9 5 9 8Once a week 28 31 20 24 38 30 24 32 29 29 18 26 30Monthly or less 32 33 32 37 21 31 31 34 29 32 34 34 29Never 30 26 42 30 27 29 37 22 34 29 42 29 31(Don't know) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0(Refuse) 1 1 0 0 4 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 2Weekly or more 36 40 26 33 48 39 30 42 36 38 23 35 38

Marital statusTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Married 57 100 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 100 0 56 65Single 26 0 100 0 0 0 63 0 55 0 72 30 16Sep/Divorced 9 0 0 100 0 61 23 0 26 0 19 9 10Widowed 6 0 0 0 100 39 14 0 19 0 9 4 8(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1Sep/Div/Wid 15 0 0 100 100 100 37 0 45 0 28 13 18Unmarried 41 0 100 100 100 100 100 0 100 0 100 43 34

Marital/GenderTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Married Women 29 50 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 26 36Unmarried Women 23 0 49 64 73 67 56 0 100 0 0 24 21Married Men 28 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 30 29Unmarried Men 18 0 51 36 27 33 44 0 0 0 100 19 13

Page 323

Total MARITAL MARITAL/GENDER 2008

Page 324: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Voted in person

Voted by mail A B Cell Landline Base Latino

Racial/ethnic groupTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)White 67 70 79 66 68 75 66 81 17Af-Amer. or Black 5 6 3 5 5 5 5 6 1Latino 19 15 11 19 19 8 20 4 73Native American 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1Asian 4 4 3 5 3 9 4 6 1(Other) 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3(Don't know) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1(Refuse) 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 2(Will not identify) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Multi-Racial) 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 2

Born in the US?Total answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)The U.S. 84 85 91 81 86 85 84 89 66Another country 16 14 9 18 13 13 16 11 33(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(Refused) 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 1 0

Hispanic how long in US?Total answering (115) (37) (12) (64) (51) (3) (112) (6) (109)0-5 30 5 5 20 42 20 30 10 316-10 26 31 11 32 18 33 25 30 2511+ 43 64 73 46 39 48 43 60 42(DK/Ref) 2 0 10 2 2 0 2 0 2

How often attend churchTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)More than once/week 8 8 7 8 9 7 8 7 13Once a week 28 27 27 28 27 18 29 25 36Monthly or less 32 35 32 30 34 32 32 32 31Never 30 28 32 32 28 41 29 34 19(Don't know) 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1(Refuse) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0Weekly or more 36 35 35 36 35 25 37 32 49

Marital statusTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Married 57 64 69 55 60 35 61 60 48Single 26 20 11 29 22 50 22 22 39Sep/Divorced 9 8 10 9 10 12 9 10 7Widowed 6 7 9 6 6 1 7 6 4(Don't know) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1(Refuse) 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1Sep/Div/Wid 15 15 19 15 16 13 16 16 12Unmarried 41 35 30 44 38 64 38 39 50

Marital/GenderTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Married Women 29 31 36 25 33 15 31 29 28Unmarried Women 23 21 18 23 23 31 22 22 26Married Men 28 33 33 29 28 19 30 31 20Unmarried Men 18 14 12 20 16 32 16 16 24

Page 324

PHONE SAMPLETotal 2006 SPLIT

Page 325: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LIKELY

Likely Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS

Reg Rep Not ID Rep

Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Mod erate

Conser vative

Party RegistrationTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Democrat 45 44 81 26 6 100 0 0 0 100 74 42 22Republican 32 36 4 28 83 0 100 0 100 0 4 27 62DTS 19 16 13 37 10 0 0 100 0 0 18 26 12Other 4 3 2 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 3

White Party RegistrationTotal answering (1012) (618) (402) (297) (311) (415) (374) (186) (101) (83) (268) (411) (315)Democrat 41 42 83 23 5 100 0 0 0 100 73 40 14Republican 37 41 3 29 88 0 100 0 100 0 4 32 73DTS 18 15 13 38 7 0 0 100 0 0 18 24 12Other 4 3 1 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 4 2

Latino Party RegistrationTotal answering (287) (122) (154) (82) (44) (165) (64) (49) (33) (37) (86) (103) (84)Democrat 57 49 83 33 15 100 0 0 0 100 71 56 44Republican 22 27 5 25 72 0 100 0 100 0 8 19 41DTS 17 20 10 37 9 0 0 100 0 0 20 22 11Other 3 4 2 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 4

Party IDTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Strong Democrat 25 27 57 0 0 49 2 11 5 0 53 19 8Weak Democrat 19 16 43 0 0 30 4 19 12 0 24 23 10Lean Democrat 11 10 0 39 0 10 3 23 10 47 17 13 4Independent 9 7 0 30 0 4 7 18 22 19 2 15 5Lean Republican 9 11 0 31 0 3 15 13 45 13 0 9 17Weak Republican 12 11 0 0 47 2 30 8 0 10 3 14 18Strong Republican 14 17 0 0 53 1 38 5 0 6 1 6 37(Don't know/Refused) 2 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 6 5 0 1 12-3-2 Democrat 44 43 100 0 0 79 5 30 17 0 77 42 18Independent 29 28 0 100 0 17 25 54 78 79 19 37 26Republican 26 28 0 0 100 3 67 13 0 16 4 20 552-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 15 100 0 -100 75 -62 18 17 -16 73 22 -373-1-3 Democrat 55 53 100 39 0 89 9 53 27 47 94 55 22Independent 9 7 0 30 0 4 7 18 22 19 2 15 5Republican 35 38 0 31 100 6 82 26 45 29 4 30 723-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 15 100 8 -100 82 -73 27 -18 18 89 26 -50

White Party IDTotal answering (1012) (618) (402) (297) (311) (415) (374) (186) (101) (83) (268) (411) (315)Strong Democrat 24 26 59 0 0 52 1 9 2 0 58 15 4Weak Democrat 16 15 41 0 0 28 3 18 11 0 21 22 5Lean Democrat 11 10 0 39 0 10 3 25 11 52 16 16 1Independent 9 7 0 29 0 4 7 20 25 19 1 16 4Lean Republican 9 10 0 32 0 2 13 16 50 11 0 9 18Weak Republican 14 12 0 0 45 2 31 8 0 12 3 16 21Strong Republican 17 20 0 0 55 1 42 3 0 5 0 6 46(Don't know/Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 12-3-2 Democrat 40 40 100 0 0 80 4 28 14 0 79 37 9Independent 29 28 0 100 0 16 23 61 86 82 18 40 23Republican 31 32 0 0 100 3 73 11 0 17 3 22 672-3-2 Dem - Rep 9 9 100 0 -100 77 -69 16 14 -17 77 15 -583-1-3 Democrat 51 50 100 39 0 90 7 52 25 52 96 53 11Independent 9 7 0 29 0 4 7 20 25 19 1 16 4Republican 40 42 0 32 100 6 87 28 50 29 3 32 853-1-3 Dem - Rep 11 8 100 6 -100 85 -80 25 -25 23 93 21 -74

Page 325

IDEOLOGYTotal PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS

Page 326: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated Right Wrong

Party RegistrationTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Democrat 45 76 68 12 6 33 100 100 0 0 8 57 42Republican 32 2 7 68 80 26 0 0 100 100 4 18 35DTS 19 17 21 19 11 35 0 0 0 0 74 21 19Other 4 4 4 2 3 6 0 0 0 0 14 4 4

White Party RegistrationTotal answering (1012) (257) (250) (138) (267) (101) (197) (207) (141) (229) (239) (73) (866)Democrat 41 76 68 7 5 26 100 100 0 0 5 48 39Republican 37 2 8 73 83 28 0 0 100 100 2 22 40DTS 18 17 21 17 10 38 0 0 0 0 78 24 18Other 4 4 3 2 2 9 0 0 0 0 15 5 4

Latino Party RegistrationTotal answering (287) (74) (110) (31) (31) (41) (61) (94) (26) (34) (72) (50) (203)Democrat 57 74 74 28 8 44 100 100 0 0 14 61 55Republican 22 4 7 59 78 26 0 0 100 100 5 20 23DTS 17 20 15 11 10 28 0 0 0 0 69 17 18Other 3 3 4 2 4 2 0 0 0 0 12 3 3

Party IDTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Strong Democrat 25 56 36 0 0 8 65 35 3 1 14 32 23Weak Democrat 19 26 42 0 0 4 25 36 7 1 18 24 18Lean Democrat 11 18 22 0 0 3 8 11 6 1 23 17 10Independent 9 0 0 0 0 70 1 6 12 4 18 5 9Lean Republican 9 0 0 29 24 1 0 5 15 15 12 2 10Weak Republican 12 0 0 50 25 2 1 4 39 25 6 10 12Strong Republican 14 0 0 21 51 0 1 2 17 53 4 9 15(Don't know/Refused) 2 0 0 0 0 13 0 1 0 1 4 2 12-3-2 Democrat 44 82 78 0 0 12 89 71 10 2 31 55 42Independent 29 18 22 29 24 74 9 22 33 20 54 24 29Republican 26 0 0 71 76 2 1 6 57 78 11 19 272-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 82 78 -71 -76 10 88 65 -47 -76 21 37 143-1-3 Democrat 55 100 100 0 0 15 97 82 17 3 54 72 52Independent 9 0 0 0 0 70 1 6 12 4 18 5 9Republican 35 0 0 100 100 3 2 11 72 92 23 20 383-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 100 100 -100 -100 13 96 72 -55 -89 31 52 14

White Party IDTotal answering (1012) (257) (250) (138) (267) (101) (197) (207) (141) (229) (239) (73) (866)Strong Democrat 24 61 30 0 0 6 72 32 1 0 11 32 22Weak Democrat 16 22 43 0 0 1 21 36 7 0 15 20 16Lean Democrat 11 17 27 0 0 2 6 14 7 1 26 21 10Independent 9 0 0 0 0 86 0 7 13 2 21 6 9Lean Republican 9 0 0 28 21 1 0 5 15 12 16 1 11Weak Republican 14 0 0 54 24 1 0 5 40 25 6 7 14Strong Republican 17 0 0 19 54 0 0 2 17 59 4 12 18(Don't know/Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 02-3-2 Democrat 40 83 73 0 0 8 93 68 8 1 27 52 38Independent 29 17 27 28 21 90 6 25 35 15 63 28 30Republican 31 0 0 72 79 1 0 7 57 84 10 20 332-3-2 Dem - Rep 9 83 73 -72 -79 7 93 61 -49 -84 17 32 53-1-3 Democrat 51 100 100 0 0 10 100 82 15 1 53 73 47Independent 9 0 0 0 0 86 0 7 13 2 21 6 9Republican 40 0 0 100 100 2 0 11 72 97 26 20 443-1-3 Dem - Rep 11 100 100 -100 -100 8 99 71 -57 -95 27 53 4

Page 326

Total PTY/IDEO PTYREG/IDEO STATE DIR

Page 327: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

10 8-10 6-10 0-5 0-7 BrownWhit man Und Ref

Party RegistrationTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Democrat 45 40 43 45 46 48 68 23 42Republican 32 44 39 34 24 24 11 54 26DTS 19 13 16 17 26 24 18 19 29Other 4 3 3 3 4 5 4 4 3

White Party RegistrationTotal answering (1012) (340) (527) (729) (279) (481) (461) (450) (77)Democrat 41 35 37 41 42 45 70 16 24Republican 37 49 46 40 28 27 12 63 37DTS 18 13 14 16 25 23 15 18 39Other 4 2 2 3 5 5 3 4 1

Latino Party RegistrationTotal answering (287) (66) (145) (208) (77) (140) (146) (93) (45)Democrat 57 53 52 55 65 63 65 37 77Republican 22 27 28 25 15 17 13 41 12DTS 17 16 17 17 17 18 19 19 9Other 3 5 3 3 3 3 3 2 2

Party IDTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Strong Democrat 25 28 28 27 20 22 44 8 13Weak Democrat 19 11 15 17 23 23 24 13 24Lean Democrat 11 6 9 10 14 14 15 7 9Independent 9 6 6 6 14 11 4 8 21Lean Republican 9 13 11 9 8 7 3 16 6Weak Republican 12 10 11 12 12 13 6 19 12Strong Republican 14 24 19 17 7 8 3 28 8(Don't know/Refused) 2 1 1 1 2 2 0 1 82-3-2 Democrat 44 40 43 44 43 45 68 21 37Independent 29 25 26 26 36 32 23 31 35Republican 26 34 30 29 19 21 9 46 202-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 5 13 16 25 24 59 -25 183-1-3 Democrat 55 46 52 55 57 59 84 28 46Independent 9 6 6 6 14 11 4 8 21Republican 35 47 41 38 27 28 12 62 263-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 -1 11 17 30 31 72 -34 20

White Party IDTotal answering (1012) (340) (527) (729) (279) (481) (461) (450) (77)Strong Democrat 24 27 25 25 19 22 46 4 10Weak Democrat 16 9 12 15 20 20 23 9 21Lean Democrat 11 7 8 10 15 15 16 8 6Independent 9 6 6 6 15 11 4 7 28Lean Republican 9 13 12 10 8 7 2 17 7Weak Republican 14 10 12 13 15 16 6 21 18Strong Republican 17 29 25 21 7 9 2 34 9(Don't know/Refused) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 22-3-2 Democrat 40 36 38 40 39 42 69 13 31Independent 29 26 26 26 38 33 22 32 40Republican 31 39 36 34 22 24 9 55 272-3-2 Dem - Rep 9 -3 1 6 17 18 60 -42 43-1-3 Democrat 51 42 45 50 54 58 85 21 37Independent 9 6 6 6 15 11 4 7 28Republican 40 52 48 44 30 31 11 72 333-1-3 Dem - Rep 11 -10 -3 6 24 27 74 -52 3

Page 327

Total ENTHUSIASM GOV VOTE

Page 328: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Party RegistrationTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Democrat 45 73 69 52 53 46 37 29 15 72 52 42 19 46Republican 32 8 14 16 19 26 32 39 66 10 17 28 59 24DTS 19 15 17 25 26 26 28 25 16 15 25 27 18 26Other 4 4 1 7 2 2 4 6 3 3 5 3 4 4

White Party RegistrationTotal answering (1012) (295) (83) (54) (29) (73) (70) (92) (317) (378) (83) (142) (409) (226)Democrat 41 73 72 57 57 37 22 16 11 73 57 29 12 40Republican 37 9 14 21 18 31 43 50 70 10 20 37 66 31DTS 18 15 14 13 23 30 31 26 16 14 17 31 18 26Other 4 4 1 8 2 2 4 8 3 3 6 3 4 4

Latino Party RegistrationTotal answering (287) (56) (43) (26) (21) (37) (32) (37) (35) (99) (47) (69) (72) (116)Democrat 57 71 62 58 65 62 64 47 24 67 61 63 36 62Republican 22 12 18 10 8 20 16 33 59 15 9 18 46 15DTS 17 15 18 27 22 17 14 17 13 16 24 16 15 19Other 3 3 1 6 5 0 6 3 3 2 5 3 3 4

Party IDTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Strong Democrat 25 57 30 27 19 20 11 11 4 50 24 16 6 19Weak Democrat 19 16 37 20 49 26 21 17 7 22 32 24 10 27Lean Democrat 11 16 10 28 3 13 13 12 2 15 18 13 5 15Independent 9 4 6 6 3 16 17 12 9 4 5 16 10 12Lean Republican 9 1 3 4 13 4 7 11 21 1 8 5 18 6Weak Republican 12 4 7 11 11 10 19 13 20 5 11 14 19 13Strong Republican 14 2 5 3 2 6 10 19 34 3 3 8 30 6(Don't know/Refused) 2 0 1 0 0 5 2 5 1 0 0 4 2 22-3-2 Democrat 44 73 67 47 68 45 32 28 12 72 56 39 16 45Independent 29 21 20 38 19 33 37 35 33 21 30 35 33 33Republican 26 6 12 14 13 17 29 32 55 7 14 22 49 192-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 68 55 33 55 29 3 -4 -43 64 42 17 -33 263-1-3 Democrat 55 90 78 76 71 59 45 40 14 86 74 53 21 61Independent 9 4 6 6 3 16 17 12 9 4 5 16 10 12Republican 35 7 15 18 26 21 36 43 76 9 21 27 67 253-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 83 62 58 45 38 9 -4 -62 77 52 25 -46 35

White Party IDTotal answering (1012) (295) (83) (54) (29) (73) (70) (92) (317) (378) (83) (142) (409) (226)Strong Democrat 24 58 29 20 19 16 2 6 2 52 20 9 3 13Weak Democrat 16 15 43 24 46 22 15 10 7 21 32 18 8 23Lean Democrat 11 16 9 32 2 12 17 16 2 14 21 14 5 17Independent 9 4 5 6 0 19 23 11 8 4 4 21 9 15Lean Republican 9 0 1 5 15 7 10 14 20 1 8 8 18 8Weak Republican 14 5 7 12 14 15 19 20 21 5 13 17 21 16Strong Republican 17 1 7 1 4 8 13 23 39 2 2 11 35 8(Don't know/Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 12-3-2 Democrat 40 74 72 44 65 38 17 16 9 73 51 27 11 36Independent 29 21 15 42 17 37 51 41 30 19 33 44 33 40Republican 31 6 14 14 18 23 33 43 60 7 15 28 56 232-3-2 Dem - Rep 9 68 58 31 46 14 -16 -27 -51 66 36 -1 -46 133-1-3 Democrat 51 90 81 76 67 49 34 32 11 88 73 42 16 53Independent 9 4 5 6 0 19 23 11 8 4 4 21 9 15Republican 40 6 14 18 33 30 43 56 80 8 24 36 75 323-1-3 Dem - Rep 11 83 66 58 33 20 -9 -24 -69 80 49 6 -59 22

Page 328

Total BROWN VCS

Page 329: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Party RegistrationTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Democrat 45 15 25 35 51 49 44 61 70 17 42 47 67 45Republican 32 67 47 34 23 22 20 18 10 62 29 21 13 24DTS 19 15 22 26 25 27 30 20 15 17 26 28 17 27Other 4 3 6 5 1 2 6 2 4 4 3 4 3 4

White Party RegistrationTotal answering (1012) (293) (80) (44) (33) (62) (74) (106) (320) (373) (77) (136) (426) (213)Democrat 41 11 18 19 48 44 43 59 69 13 31 43 67 39Republican 37 72 54 45 26 26 30 20 11 68 37 28 13 31DTS 18 14 20 31 23 30 21 20 16 15 28 25 17 26Other 4 3 8 6 3 1 6 1 4 4 5 4 3 4

Latino Party RegistrationTotal answering (287) (31) (22) (22) (18) (40) (33) (59) (62) (53) (40) (73) (121) (112)Democrat 57 22 25 55 56 70 64 65 69 23 55 67 67 63Republican 22 60 49 19 28 11 8 17 13 55 23 10 15 14DTS 17 15 26 21 16 16 23 16 13 19 19 19 15 19Other 3 4 0 5 0 2 6 2 4 2 3 4 3 3

Party IDTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Strong Democrat 25 4 12 11 20 17 23 25 53 6 15 20 44 18Weak Democrat 19 7 14 20 30 38 19 33 16 9 25 29 21 28Lean Democrat 11 2 12 16 16 7 21 10 16 5 16 14 14 15Independent 9 8 12 8 4 10 15 10 6 9 6 13 7 10Lean Republican 9 21 11 8 5 9 5 5 2 19 7 7 3 7Weak Republican 12 21 13 23 12 8 13 8 5 19 18 11 6 13Strong Republican 14 36 23 14 9 5 4 5 2 33 12 5 3 7(Don't know/Refused) 2 1 3 1 3 4 0 3 1 1 2 2 1 22-3-2 Democrat 44 11 26 30 51 56 42 58 69 15 40 49 66 46Independent 29 31 35 32 26 27 41 25 24 32 29 34 24 32Republican 26 57 36 37 21 14 17 14 7 52 29 15 9 202-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 -45 -10 -7 30 42 25 44 62 -37 11 34 57 263-1-3 Democrat 55 14 38 47 67 63 63 69 84 19 57 63 80 61Independent 9 8 12 8 4 10 15 10 6 9 6 13 7 10Republican 35 78 47 45 27 23 22 18 9 70 36 22 12 273-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 -64 -9 2 40 40 42 50 76 -51 21 41 68 33

White Party IDTotal answering (1012) (293) (80) (44) (33) (62) (74) (106) (320) (373) (77) (136) (426) (213)Strong Democrat 24 2 6 2 10 18 16 23 54 3 5 17 47 13Weak Democrat 16 6 11 10 28 34 19 39 15 7 18 26 21 23Lean Democrat 11 2 16 24 15 8 23 8 15 5 21 16 13 18Independent 9 7 10 7 6 8 22 9 7 7 7 16 8 12Lean Republican 9 20 13 13 10 11 4 4 2 18 12 7 2 9Weak Republican 14 22 18 26 19 10 13 11 5 21 23 12 7 16Strong Republican 17 41 27 19 11 9 2 7 1 38 16 5 3 9(Don't know/Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 02-3-2 Democrat 40 9 17 11 38 52 35 62 69 11 23 43 67 36Independent 29 28 38 44 31 27 49 21 24 31 39 39 23 39Republican 31 62 44 45 31 19 16 17 7 59 39 17 9 252-3-2 Dem - Rep 9 -54 -27 -33 8 33 20 44 62 -48 -16 26 58 113-1-3 Democrat 51 11 33 36 54 60 59 70 84 16 43 59 81 53Independent 9 7 10 7 6 8 22 9 7 7 7 16 8 12Republican 40 82 57 57 40 30 20 21 8 77 50 25 11 343-1-3 Dem - Rep 11 -71 -24 -22 13 30 39 49 76 -61 -7 35 69 20

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Total WHITMAN VCS

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Brown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

better

Govt back

groundBiz back ground

Brown better

Whit man

better Boxer Fiorina DK/ Ref

Party RegistrationTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Democrat 45 65 22 67 27 70 26 61 29 68 26 66 17 45Republican 32 13 57 13 51 11 50 17 48 12 51 10 62 27DTS 19 18 17 17 18 16 19 18 20 15 18 21 16 25Other 4 4 4 3 4 3 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 3

White Party RegistrationTotal answering (1012) (455) (360) (336) (420) (318) (488) (499) (458) (333) (492) (508) (440) (59)Democrat 41 67 13 70 20 74 18 61 19 71 19 66 14 34Republican 37 13 67 13 58 10 59 19 59 12 59 10 68 36DTS 18 15 16 14 18 12 18 17 18 13 18 20 15 26Other 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4

Latino Party RegistrationTotal answering (287) (132) (67) (119) (74) (122) (98) (115) (151) (104) (91) (173) (62) (48)Democrat 57 68 41 67 43 66 44 64 52 67 45 67 30 62Republican 22 15 39 15 40 14 36 17 26 18 35 12 54 15DTS 17 13 15 14 16 16 16 17 18 12 17 18 12 22Other 3 3 5 4 1 4 4 2 4 3 3 3 4 0

Party IDTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Strong Democrat 25 43 8 44 11 49 10 38 13 49 8 42 5 13Weak Democrat 19 24 14 26 13 20 16 22 17 19 16 25 10 23Lean Democrat 11 14 5 12 8 15 7 14 8 14 6 17 3 10Independent 9 6 7 4 6 5 8 7 9 3 10 5 10 25Lean Republican 9 3 18 3 16 2 15 4 14 2 15 3 18 6Weak Republican 12 6 17 6 18 5 17 10 15 8 17 5 22 8Strong Republican 14 4 30 4 27 3 26 5 23 3 26 3 31 5(Don't know/Refused) 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 82-3-2 Democrat 44 66 22 71 25 69 26 59 30 69 24 67 15 36Independent 29 23 30 19 29 22 30 25 30 20 31 24 31 42Republican 26 10 47 10 45 9 43 15 39 11 43 8 53 142-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 56 -26 61 -20 60 -17 45 -9 58 -19 59 -38 233-1-3 Democrat 55 81 26 83 32 84 33 73 37 83 31 84 18 47Independent 9 6 7 4 6 5 8 7 9 3 10 5 10 25Republican 35 13 65 13 61 11 58 19 53 13 58 10 72 203-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 67 -38 70 -29 73 -25 54 -16 69 -27 74 -54 27

White Party IDTotal answering (1012) (455) (360) (336) (420) (318) (488) (499) (458) (333) (492) (508) (440) (59)Strong Democrat 24 44 3 46 8 54 4 38 8 49 4 42 4 13Weak Democrat 16 22 10 26 10 17 14 20 12 18 13 23 7 22Lean Democrat 11 16 4 12 8 16 7 15 6 16 6 19 3 9Independent 9 5 7 5 4 4 7 7 8 3 9 5 9 30Lean Republican 9 3 18 3 16 2 16 4 16 2 16 2 19 4Weak Republican 14 6 20 5 20 5 20 11 18 8 20 6 23 13Strong Republican 17 4 37 3 33 3 31 4 31 2 32 2 35 6(Don't know/Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32-3-2 Democrat 40 66 13 71 18 71 18 59 20 68 17 65 11 35Independent 29 24 29 20 29 21 30 26 31 21 31 26 30 43Republican 31 10 57 9 53 8 51 15 49 11 52 8 59 202-3-2 Dem - Rep 9 56 -44 63 -34 63 -33 44 -29 57 -34 57 -47 163-1-3 Democrat 51 82 18 83 27 86 26 74 26 84 24 85 14 44Independent 9 5 7 5 4 4 7 7 8 3 9 5 9 30Republican 40 13 75 12 69 9 67 19 65 12 67 10 77 233-1-3 Dem - Rep 11 69 -58 72 -42 77 -42 55 -39 72 -44 75 -63 20

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ENERGY BCKGRND ECONOMY SEN VOTETotal UNDERSTAND CLEAR PLAN

Page 331: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Party RegistrationTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Democrat 45 74 65 60 44 58 24 28 14 71 52 42 17 48Republican 32 7 16 8 14 22 37 42 69 10 11 29 63 18DTS 19 15 18 28 37 18 34 24 14 16 32 26 16 29Other 4 3 2 4 5 3 5 6 4 3 5 4 4 4

White Party RegistrationTotal answering (1012) (278) (102) (71) (56) (43) (45) (62) (354) (381) (127) (88) (416) (215)Democrat 41 74 65 60 32 57 21 12 11 72 47 38 11 44Republican 37 8 17 8 11 26 52 54 72 11 9 39 69 21DTS 18 15 16 28 48 15 23 26 14 15 36 19 16 29Other 4 3 2 5 10 2 4 7 3 2 7 3 4 5

Latino Party RegistrationTotal answering (287) (53) (39) (43) (38) (28) (14) (28) (45) (92) (81) (41) (73) (122)Democrat 57 77 64 67 56 58 52 57 23 71 62 56 36 60Republican 22 8 10 8 23 20 17 19 67 9 15 19 49 16DTS 17 11 21 21 19 22 19 22 8 16 20 21 13 21Other 3 3 5 4 1 0 12 2 2 4 2 4 2 3

Party IDTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Strong Democrat 25 58 24 28 27 23 12 5 3 48 27 18 4 23Weak Democrat 19 17 41 30 24 23 30 18 5 24 27 26 8 27Lean Democrat 11 16 12 22 25 9 5 7 3 15 23 7 3 17Independent 9 4 7 5 3 21 11 24 9 5 4 16 12 9Lean Republican 9 0 3 3 10 5 5 10 22 1 6 5 19 6Weak Republican 12 3 11 5 4 15 28 12 21 5 4 21 19 11Strong Republican 14 1 2 5 7 1 8 21 35 1 6 4 32 5(Don't know/Refused) 2 0 2 1 1 4 2 3 2 1 1 3 2 22-3-2 Democrat 44 75 64 58 51 46 42 23 8 72 54 44 11 50Independent 29 20 21 31 38 35 21 41 34 20 34 28 35 32Republican 26 4 13 10 10 16 35 33 56 7 10 25 52 162-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 71 51 48 40 30 6 -9 -48 65 44 19 -40 343-1-3 Democrat 55 91 76 80 75 55 47 31 11 87 78 51 15 67Independent 9 4 7 5 3 21 11 24 9 5 4 16 12 9Republican 35 5 15 13 20 21 41 42 78 8 16 30 71 223-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 86 61 67 55 34 7 -12 -67 79 61 21 -56 45

White Party IDTotal answering (1012) (278) (102) (71) (56) (43) (45) (62) (354) (381) (127) (88) (416) (215)Strong Democrat 24 59 24 22 16 26 7 2 3 50 19 16 3 18Weak Democrat 16 15 43 31 18 21 29 14 4 23 25 25 6 25Lean Democrat 11 16 10 30 39 6 6 3 3 15 34 6 3 22Independent 9 4 8 6 2 19 13 28 8 5 4 16 11 9Lean Republican 9 0 1 3 13 5 3 10 21 0 7 4 20 6Weak Republican 14 4 13 4 5 21 34 16 21 6 5 28 21 14Strong Republican 17 1 3 4 7 0 9 28 39 1 5 4 37 5(Don't know/Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 12-3-2 Democrat 40 75 66 53 34 46 35 15 7 72 45 41 8 43Independent 29 21 18 39 54 30 22 41 32 20 45 26 34 37Republican 31 5 16 8 12 21 43 43 60 8 10 32 58 192-3-2 Dem - Rep 9 70 51 45 21 25 -7 -28 -54 65 35 9 -50 243-1-3 Democrat 51 91 76 83 73 52 41 18 10 87 79 46 11 65Independent 9 4 8 6 2 19 13 28 8 5 4 16 11 9Republican 40 5 16 11 25 26 46 53 82 8 17 36 78 253-1-3 Dem - Rep 11 86 60 72 48 25 -5 -35 -72 79 61 10 -67 40

Page 331

Total BOXER VCS

Page 332: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Party RegistrationTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Democrat 45 13 26 19 44 57 62 72 15 34 50 69 47Republican 32 71 51 31 21 10 17 8 68 31 16 11 19DTS 19 13 16 44 30 30 19 16 14 31 30 17 30Other 4 4 7 6 5 3 2 3 4 4 4 3 4

White Party RegistrationTotal answering (1012) (343) (50) (33) (87) (86) (113) (287) (393) (47) (173) (400) (220)Democrat 41 11 14 21 33 55 62 73 11 34 44 70 42Republican 37 73 59 45 23 10 20 8 71 40 16 12 22DTS 18 13 21 28 37 32 15 16 14 21 34 16 32Other 4 3 6 6 7 4 2 3 4 4 6 3 5

Latino Party RegistrationTotal answering (287) (36) (13) (9) (61) (50) (53) (60) (49) (13) (111) (114) (124)Democrat 57 16 52 38 59 67 61 73 25 47 63 67 61Republican 22 73 35 13 21 8 10 13 63 21 15 12 16DTS 17 10 9 30 20 22 25 10 10 20 20 17 20Other 3 1 5 19 1 3 4 4 2 12 2 4 3

Party IDTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Strong Democrat 25 3 6 12 23 24 21 56 3 18 24 45 23Weak Democrat 19 5 18 30 23 29 39 17 7 27 26 24 26Lean Democrat 11 3 3 3 18 19 14 16 3 5 18 15 16Independent 9 8 18 13 9 11 10 6 9 11 10 7 10Lean Republican 9 22 13 5 10 3 3 0 21 3 7 1 6Weak Republican 12 22 16 31 8 5 9 3 21 31 6 5 11Strong Republican 14 37 25 7 5 7 2 1 35 5 6 1 6(Don't know/Refused) 2 1 1 0 4 2 3 1 1 0 3 2 32-3-2 Democrat 44 8 24 42 46 54 60 73 10 45 50 69 49Independent 29 33 34 21 37 33 27 21 33 19 35 23 32Republican 26 59 41 37 13 12 11 5 56 36 12 7 172-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 -51 -17 4 33 42 49 68 -46 9 37 62 323-1-3 Democrat 55 10 27 45 64 72 74 88 13 50 68 84 64Independent 9 8 18 13 9 11 10 6 9 11 10 7 10Republican 35 81 54 42 23 15 14 5 77 39 19 8 233-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 -71 -27 3 41 57 60 83 -64 11 49 76 41

White Party IDTotal answering (1012) (343) (50) (33) (87) (86) (113) (287) (393) (47) (173) (400) (220)Strong Democrat 24 3 2 7 18 18 22 58 3 13 18 48 17Weak Democrat 16 4 17 24 19 32 40 15 6 22 25 22 25Lean Democrat 11 3 1 2 26 25 13 16 3 2 25 15 20Independent 9 7 19 18 7 13 11 7 8 14 10 8 11Lean Republican 9 22 13 4 12 2 1 0 20 3 7 1 6Weak Republican 14 22 20 32 12 4 12 3 22 37 8 6 14Strong Republican 17 40 28 12 6 6 2 1 39 8 6 1 7(Don't know/Refused) 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 12-3-2 Democrat 40 7 19 32 37 50 61 73 8 35 43 70 41Independent 29 31 33 24 45 39 25 23 31 20 42 23 37Republican 31 62 48 44 18 10 14 5 60 45 14 7 212-3-2 Dem - Rep 9 -55 -29 -13 19 39 47 68 -52 -10 29 62 213-1-3 Democrat 51 10 21 33 63 74 74 89 11 38 68 85 62Independent 9 7 19 18 7 13 11 7 8 14 10 8 11Republican 40 84 61 49 29 13 15 5 81 48 21 8 273-1-3 Dem - Rep 11 -74 -40 -15 33 61 59 84 -70 -10 47 77 35

Page 332

Total FIORINA VCS

Page 333: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Support Obama

Oppose Obama

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better Favor Oppose

Impor tant

Not Impor tant

Party RegistrationTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Democrat 45 63 14 71 21 69 17 71 19 36 53 55 15Republican 32 12 65 10 60 11 64 11 61 40 24 21 64DTS 19 22 16 16 16 18 15 15 16 21 19 20 19Other 4 3 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 5 4 2

White Party RegistrationTotal answering (1012) (537) (351) (341) (407) (422) (339) (371) (368) (390) (412) (721) (286)Democrat 41 63 10 72 15 70 12 70 13 29 52 53 11Republican 37 12 71 10 66 10 70 11 68 49 25 24 68DTS 18 22 14 15 15 17 15 16 15 19 18 18 19Other 4 3 4 3 4 3 3 4 3 3 5 4 1

Latino Party RegistrationTotal answering (287) (202) (59) (125) (60) (123) (56) (108) (61) (102) (104) (244) (41)Democrat 57 67 28 71 38 68 38 72 40 55 55 64 18Republican 22 13 50 13 42 13 45 12 44 26 24 16 61DTS 17 18 18 11 16 17 11 11 11 17 17 18 16Other 3 3 3 5 3 2 5 4 5 2 4 3 4

Party IDTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Strong Democrat 25 39 3 47 9 46 6 48 6 15 34 32 5Weak Democrat 19 27 7 27 8 26 9 22 9 19 19 23 8Lean Democrat 11 15 4 13 4 14 2 15 4 11 13 14 4Independent 9 6 9 4 10 4 6 4 10 7 9 8 8Lean Republican 9 4 19 3 17 2 20 3 20 12 7 4 23Weak Republican 12 5 22 4 21 4 23 5 21 16 9 10 19Strong Republican 14 3 34 3 30 3 33 2 30 19 9 8 32(Don't know/Refused) 2 1 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 12-3-2 Democrat 44 66 9 74 17 72 15 71 15 34 53 54 13Independent 29 25 32 19 31 20 28 21 34 30 28 26 36Republican 26 8 57 6 52 6 57 7 50 35 18 17 512-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 58 -47 68 -35 65 -42 63 -35 -1 35 37 -383-1-3 Democrat 55 81 13 86 21 86 17 86 19 45 66 68 17Independent 9 6 9 4 10 4 6 4 10 7 9 8 8Republican 35 12 76 9 69 8 77 10 71 47 24 22 733-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 69 -63 78 -48 78 -60 76 -52 -2 41 46 -56

White Party IDTotal answering (1012) (537) (351) (341) (407) (422) (339) (371) (368) (390) (412) (721) (286)Strong Democrat 24 41 1 49 5 48 3 50 3 11 35 31 3Weak Democrat 16 25 5 25 6 25 6 19 7 17 17 20 6Lean Democrat 11 18 2 15 3 15 1 17 3 10 12 14 4Independent 9 6 9 4 9 5 5 4 9 7 9 9 7Lean Republican 9 4 19 2 17 1 20 2 20 13 7 4 23Weak Republican 14 4 25 3 23 4 25 6 22 18 10 11 19Strong Republican 17 3 39 2 36 2 39 2 35 24 10 9 37(Don't know/Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02-3-2 Democrat 40 66 6 74 12 73 10 69 10 28 52 52 9Independent 29 27 30 21 29 21 26 22 33 30 28 28 34Republican 31 7 64 5 59 6 64 8 57 42 20 20 572-3-2 Dem - Rep 9 60 -57 69 -47 67 -55 61 -48 -14 32 31 -483-1-3 Democrat 51 84 9 89 15 89 11 86 13 38 64 66 13Independent 9 6 9 4 9 5 5 4 9 7 9 9 7Republican 40 10 83 7 76 7 84 10 78 55 26 25 803-1-3 Dem - Rep 11 74 -74 81 -61 82 -73 76 -65 -17 38 42 -67

Page 333

SHARE VALUES JOBS ECON PROP 23 GW IMPTTotal SENTYPE CHANGE

Page 334: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

White Black Latino Asian Men Women Men Women Men Women

Party RegistrationTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Democrat 45 41 57 57 38 42 48 39 43 53 61Republican 32 37 14 22 19 33 30 39 35 24 21DTS 19 18 24 17 43 20 19 18 19 18 16Other 4 4 6 3 0 5 3 4 3 4 2

White Party RegistrationTotal answering (1012) (1012) (6) (6) (0) (479) (533) (479) (533) (2) (4)Democrat 41 41 15 0 0 39 43 39 43 0 0Republican 37 37 0 100 0 39 35 39 35 100 100DTS 18 18 85 0 0 18 19 18 19 0 0Other 4 4 0 0 0 4 3 4 3 0 0

Latino Party RegistrationTotal answering (287) (6) (0) (287) (0) (127) (160) (2) (4) (127) (160)Democrat 57 0 0 57 0 53 61 0 0 53 61Republican 22 100 0 22 0 24 21 100 100 24 21DTS 17 0 0 17 0 18 16 0 0 18 16Other 3 0 0 3 0 4 2 0 0 4 2

Party IDTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Strong Democrat 25 24 46 27 19 21 29 20 27 24 30Weak Democrat 19 16 25 26 26 20 18 16 16 24 28Lean Democrat 11 11 9 14 12 11 11 11 11 15 13Independent 9 9 2 8 8 11 7 10 7 10 7Lean Republican 9 9 6 6 6 9 9 10 9 7 6Weak Republican 12 14 4 9 14 14 11 15 13 13 6Strong Republican 14 17 5 6 12 14 13 17 17 7 6(Don't know/Refused) 2 0 3 3 4 1 2 0 0 0 52-3-2 Democrat 44 40 71 54 45 40 48 36 43 48 58Independent 29 29 17 29 26 32 26 32 27 33 25Republican 26 31 9 15 26 27 24 32 30 19 122-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 9 62 38 19 13 23 4 14 29 463-1-3 Democrat 55 51 80 67 56 52 59 47 55 63 71Independent 9 9 2 8 8 11 7 10 7 10 7Republican 35 40 15 22 32 37 33 43 38 26 183-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 11 65 46 24 15 26 4 17 37 52

White Party IDTotal answering (1012) (1012) (6) (6) (0) (479) (533) (479) (533) (2) (4)Strong Democrat 24 24 15 0 0 20 27 20 27 0 0Weak Democrat 16 16 0 0 0 16 16 16 16 0 0Lean Democrat 11 11 85 0 0 11 11 11 11 0 0Independent 9 9 0 0 0 10 7 10 7 0 0Lean Republican 9 9 0 28 0 10 9 10 9 0 42Weak Republican 14 14 0 45 0 15 13 15 13 100 17Strong Republican 17 17 0 27 0 17 17 17 17 0 41(Don't know/Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02-3-2 Democrat 40 40 15 0 0 36 43 36 43 0 0Independent 29 29 85 28 0 32 27 32 27 0 42Republican 31 31 0 72 0 32 30 32 30 100 582-3-2 Dem - Rep 9 9 15 -72 0 4 14 4 14 -100 -583-1-3 Democrat 51 51 100 0 0 47 55 47 55 0 0Independent 9 9 0 0 0 10 7 10 7 0 0Republican 40 40 0 100 0 43 38 43 38 100 1003-1-3 Dem - Rep 11 11 100 -100 0 4 17 4 17 -100 -100

Page 334

WHT GEN LAT GENTotal RACE GENDER

Page 335: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over

Party RegistrationTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Democrat 45 44 48 40 47 48 44 48Republican 32 15 24 37 35 40 26 37DTS 19 36 23 19 14 10 26 12Other 4 5 5 3 4 1 4 3

White Party RegistrationTotal answering (1012) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551)Democrat 41 32 46 34 44 44 37 44Republican 37 12 32 42 39 44 31 41DTS 18 48 17 21 13 11 27 12Other 4 7 6 3 4 2 5 3

Latino Party RegistrationTotal answering (287) (113) (48) (44) (48) (29) (205) (76)Democrat 57 57 52 57 58 66 56 61Republican 22 20 11 33 25 31 21 27DTS 17 20 33 7 12 3 20 9Other 3 3 3 3 4 0 3 3

Party IDTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Strong Democrat 25 22 22 23 28 30 23 29Weak Democrat 19 24 33 17 16 11 24 14Lean Democrat 11 23 10 8 9 8 14 9Independent 9 6 11 9 9 7 8 8Lean Republican 9 8 4 8 10 12 7 11Weak Republican 12 10 9 14 14 11 11 13Strong Republican 14 4 9 20 14 19 11 16(Don't know/Refused) 2 3 3 1 1 1 2 12-3-2 Democrat 44 47 56 40 44 41 47 43Independent 29 37 24 25 28 28 29 28Republican 26 14 18 35 28 30 22 292-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 33 38 5 15 11 24 133-1-3 Democrat 55 70 66 48 52 49 60 51Independent 9 6 11 9 9 7 8 8Republican 35 22 21 43 38 43 29 403-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 48 44 5 14 7 31 11

White Party IDTotal answering (1012) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551)Strong Democrat 24 18 21 20 26 27 20 27Weak Democrat 16 18 33 15 14 11 22 12Lean Democrat 11 31 9 8 10 8 14 9Independent 9 7 12 8 8 7 9 8Lean Republican 9 9 5 9 9 13 7 11Weak Republican 14 10 9 17 17 12 13 15Strong Republican 17 7 11 24 15 22 16 18(Don't know/Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 02-3-2 Democrat 40 36 54 35 40 38 42 39Independent 29 47 25 24 28 28 30 28Republican 31 17 21 41 33 33 28 332-3-2 Dem - Rep 9 19 34 -6 7 5 13 63-1-3 Democrat 51 67 63 43 50 46 56 48Independent 9 7 12 8 8 7 9 8Republican 40 26 25 49 42 47 36 443-1-3 Dem - Rep 11 41 38 -6 8 -1 20 4

Page 335

Total AGE

Page 336: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over 18-29 30-4950 and

over 18-4950 and

over

Party RegistrationTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Democrat 45 32 46 34 44 44 37 44 57 55 61 56 61Republican 32 12 32 42 39 44 31 41 20 22 27 21 27DTS 19 48 17 21 13 11 27 12 20 20 9 20 9Other 4 7 6 3 4 2 5 3 3 3 3 3 3

White Party RegistrationTotal answering (1012) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (2) (2) (2) (4) (2)Democrat 41 32 46 34 44 44 37 44 0 0 0 0 0Republican 37 12 32 42 39 44 31 41 100 100 100 100 100DTS 18 48 17 21 13 11 27 12 0 0 0 0 0Other 4 7 6 3 4 2 5 3 0 0 0 0 0

Latino Party RegistrationTotal answering (287) (2) (2) (0) (2) (0) (4) (2) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Democrat 57 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 57 55 61 56 61Republican 22 100 100 0 100 0 100 100 20 22 27 21 27DTS 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 9 20 9Other 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 3 3

Party IDTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Strong Democrat 25 18 21 20 26 27 20 27 22 24 39 22 39Weak Democrat 19 18 33 15 14 11 22 12 30 28 19 29 19Lean Democrat 11 31 9 8 10 8 14 9 20 12 7 16 7Independent 9 7 12 8 8 7 9 8 6 14 6 9 6Lean Republican 9 9 5 9 9 13 7 11 8 2 11 5 11Weak Republican 12 10 9 17 17 12 13 15 8 11 9 9 9Strong Republican 14 7 11 24 15 22 16 18 4 7 8 6 8(Don't know/Refused) 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 3 1 3 12-3-2 Democrat 44 36 54 35 40 38 42 39 52 52 58 52 58Independent 29 47 25 24 28 28 30 28 33 28 24 31 24Republican 26 17 21 41 33 33 28 33 12 18 17 15 172-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 19 34 -6 7 5 13 6 40 34 41 37 413-1-3 Democrat 55 67 63 43 50 46 56 48 72 64 65 68 65Independent 9 7 12 8 8 7 9 8 6 14 6 9 6Republican 35 26 25 49 42 47 36 44 20 20 27 20 273-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 41 38 -6 8 -1 20 4 52 44 38 48 38

White Party IDTotal answering (1012) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (2) (2) (2) (4) (2)Strong Democrat 24 18 21 20 26 27 20 27 0 0 0 0 0Weak Democrat 16 18 33 15 14 11 22 12 0 0 0 0 0Lean Democrat 11 31 9 8 10 8 14 9 0 0 0 0 0Independent 9 7 12 8 8 7 9 8 0 0 0 0 0Lean Republican 9 9 5 9 9 13 7 11 0 0 71 0 71Weak Republican 14 10 9 17 17 12 13 15 0 100 29 55 29Strong Republican 17 7 11 24 15 22 16 18 100 0 0 45 0(Don't know/Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 02-3-2 Democrat 40 36 54 35 40 38 42 39 0 0 0 0 0Independent 29 47 25 24 28 28 30 28 0 0 71 0 71Republican 31 17 21 41 33 33 28 33 100 100 29 100 292-3-2 Dem - Rep 9 19 34 -6 7 5 13 6 -100 -100 -29 -100 -293-1-3 Democrat 51 67 63 43 50 46 56 48 0 0 0 0 0Independent 9 7 12 8 8 7 9 8 0 0 0 0 0Republican 40 26 25 49 42 47 36 44 100 100 100 100 1003-1-3 Dem - Rep 11 41 38 -6 8 -1 20 4 -100 -100 -100 -100 -100

Page 336

Total WHT AGE LAT AGE

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Young Women

Young Men

Older Women

Older Men

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Party RegistrationTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Democrat 45 47 40 50 44 55 42 42 49 46 45Republican 32 24 27 35 39 28 34 32 30 32 31DTS 19 25 27 12 12 14 21 23 18 18 21Other 4 4 6 2 4 3 4 3 4 4 4

White Party RegistrationTotal answering (1012) (217) (204) (294) (257) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575)Democrat 41 39 36 46 41 40 35 41 49 37 44Republican 37 28 34 40 42 42 41 35 31 41 34DTS 18 28 25 12 12 12 20 21 17 17 19Other 4 5 5 2 4 6 4 2 3 5 3

Latino Party RegistrationTotal answering (287) (114) (92) (43) (34) (101) (116) (44) (25) (217) (68)Democrat 57 60 51 64 58 67 57 44 44 62 44Republican 22 19 22 25 30 14 25 32 29 19 31DTS 17 19 22 8 10 17 16 20 19 17 20Other 3 2 5 3 2 2 3 4 7 2 5

Party IDTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Strong Democrat 25 26 19 32 24 26 22 24 31 24 27Weak Democrat 19 23 25 14 14 25 19 18 15 21 17Lean Democrat 11 14 13 8 10 10 12 11 12 11 11Independent 9 6 10 6 10 5 9 10 9 8 10Lean Republican 9 6 7 11 11 9 8 9 10 8 9Weak Republican 12 10 13 12 14 11 14 11 11 13 11Strong Republican 14 10 12 16 16 12 13 16 12 13 14(Don't know/Refused) 2 3 0 1 1 2 2 1 0 2 02-3-2 Democrat 44 49 44 46 38 50 42 42 47 45 44Independent 29 27 30 25 31 24 29 30 31 27 30Republican 26 20 25 28 30 24 27 28 22 26 252-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 29 19 18 8 26 14 14 24 19 193-1-3 Democrat 55 64 57 54 48 60 53 53 59 56 55Independent 9 6 10 6 10 5 9 10 9 8 10Republican 35 27 32 39 42 33 35 37 32 34 353-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 37 24 15 6 27 18 16 27 21 21

White Party IDTotal answering (1012) (217) (204) (294) (257) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575)Strong Democrat 24 22 17 31 22 20 18 22 33 19 27Weak Democrat 16 22 22 13 12 16 17 18 14 17 16Lean Democrat 11 16 12 9 10 11 12 10 12 11 11Independent 9 6 11 6 9 4 9 10 9 7 10Lean Republican 9 6 8 10 12 15 8 9 9 10 9Weak Republican 14 13 12 14 16 17 16 13 11 17 12Strong Republican 17 14 17 18 19 17 19 18 12 19 15(Don't know/Refused) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 02-3-2 Democrat 40 44 39 43 34 35 36 40 47 36 43Independent 29 28 32 25 31 30 28 29 30 29 30Republican 31 27 29 31 35 34 36 31 23 35 272-3-2 Dem - Rep 9 17 10 12 -1 1 0 10 24 0 163-1-3 Democrat 51 60 51 52 44 46 47 50 59 47 54Independent 9 6 11 6 9 4 9 10 9 7 10Republican 40 34 37 42 47 49 44 39 32 45 363-1-3 Dem - Rep 11 26 14 10 -2 -3 3 11 27 2 18

Page 337

Total GENDER/AGE EDUCATION

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Non College College

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Party RegistrationTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Democrat 45 40 35 41 49 37 44 62 44 43 41 49 49Republican 32 42 41 35 31 41 34 19 31 32 34 31 28DTS 19 12 20 21 17 17 19 17 20 20 20 17 21Other 4 6 4 2 3 5 3 2 5 5 5 3 3

White Party RegistrationTotal answering (1012) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (3) (3) (200) (278) (232) (297)Democrat 41 40 35 41 49 37 44 0 0 36 41 38 48Republican 37 42 41 35 31 41 34 100 100 41 37 42 30DTS 18 12 20 21 17 17 19 0 0 18 18 17 20Other 4 6 4 2 3 5 3 0 0 6 4 4 2

Latino Party RegistrationTotal answering (287) (0) (3) (2) (1) (3) (3) (217) (68) (95) (31) (122) (37)Democrat 57 0 0 0 0 0 0 62 44 58 39 65 49Republican 22 0 100 100 100 100 100 19 31 19 41 20 22DTS 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 20 21 11 13 27Other 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 3 10 2 1

Party IDTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Strong Democrat 25 20 18 22 33 19 27 29 23 19 22 27 32Weak Democrat 19 16 17 18 14 17 16 28 22 23 16 20 17Lean Democrat 11 11 12 10 12 11 11 14 14 10 12 12 11Independent 9 4 9 10 9 7 10 7 12 11 10 5 9Lean Republican 9 15 8 9 9 10 9 6 7 9 10 8 9Weak Republican 12 17 16 13 11 17 12 7 14 15 13 12 10Strong Republican 14 17 19 18 12 19 15 6 7 12 16 14 13(Don't know/Refused) 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 1 4 02-3-2 Democrat 44 35 36 40 47 36 43 56 46 42 39 47 49Independent 29 30 28 29 30 29 30 27 33 31 32 24 28Republican 26 34 36 31 23 35 27 13 21 27 28 25 232-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 1 0 10 24 0 16 43 25 15 11 22 263-1-3 Democrat 55 46 47 50 59 47 54 70 60 53 51 58 60Independent 9 4 9 10 9 7 10 7 12 11 10 5 9Republican 35 49 44 39 32 45 36 19 29 36 38 33 313-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 -3 3 11 27 2 18 51 31 17 13 25 28

White Party IDTotal answering (1012) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (3) (3) (200) (278) (232) (297)Strong Democrat 24 20 18 22 33 19 27 0 0 15 23 22 31Weak Democrat 16 16 17 18 14 17 16 0 0 19 14 15 18Lean Democrat 11 11 12 10 12 11 11 0 0 9 12 13 10Independent 9 4 9 10 9 7 10 0 0 11 10 4 9Lean Republican 9 15 8 9 9 10 9 51 0 11 10 9 8Weak Republican 14 17 16 13 11 17 12 0 100 17 13 17 10Strong Republican 17 17 19 18 12 19 15 49 0 17 17 20 14(Don't know/Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02-3-2 Democrat 40 35 36 40 47 36 43 0 0 34 37 37 49Independent 29 30 28 29 30 29 30 51 0 32 32 26 27Republican 31 34 36 31 23 35 27 49 100 34 31 37 242-3-2 Dem - Rep 9 1 0 10 24 0 16 -49 -100 0 6 0 253-1-3 Democrat 51 46 47 50 59 47 54 0 0 44 49 50 59Independent 9 4 9 10 9 7 10 0 0 11 10 4 9Republican 40 49 44 39 32 45 36 100 100 45 41 46 323-1-3 Dem - Rep 11 -3 3 11 27 2 18 -100 -100 -1 9 4 27

Page 338

GENDER/EDUCTotal WHT EDUC LAT EDUC

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Party RegistrationTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Democrat 45 36 41 38 48 46 42 47 48 32 41 41 47Republican 32 41 37 42 30 25 25 39 36 35 29 46 37DTS 19 18 18 17 20 24 29 11 14 26 27 11 13Other 4 6 4 4 2 5 4 3 3 8 3 3 3

White Party RegistrationTotal answering (1012) (200) (278) (232) (297) (172) (248) (239) (309) (172) (248) (239) (309)Democrat 41 36 41 38 48 32 41 41 47 32 41 41 47Republican 37 41 37 42 30 35 29 46 37 35 29 46 37DTS 18 18 18 17 20 26 27 11 13 26 27 11 13Other 4 6 4 4 2 8 3 3 3 8 3 3 3

Latino Party RegistrationTotal answering (287) (0) (2) (3) (1) (157) (48) (56) (20) (2) (2) (2) (1)Democrat 57 0 0 0 0 60 44 66 46 0 0 0 0Republican 22 0 100 100 100 19 24 22 44 100 100 100 100DTS 17 0 0 0 0 19 25 9 8 0 0 0 0Other 3 0 0 0 0 2 6 3 2 0 0 0 0

Party IDTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Strong Democrat 25 15 23 22 31 22 23 25 32 15 23 21 31Weak Democrat 19 19 14 15 18 25 23 18 11 21 23 15 11Lean Democrat 11 9 12 13 10 14 14 8 9 15 13 8 10Independent 9 11 10 4 9 8 9 7 9 8 9 6 9Lean Republican 9 11 10 9 8 6 8 11 10 7 8 12 9Weak Republican 12 17 13 17 10 14 8 13 13 19 8 16 14Strong Republican 14 17 17 20 14 9 14 17 15 15 16 21 16(Don't know/Refused) 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 02-3-2 Democrat 44 34 37 37 49 47 47 43 43 36 46 36 42Independent 29 32 32 26 27 27 31 26 29 30 30 27 28Republican 26 34 31 37 24 23 22 30 28 34 24 37 302-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 0 6 0 25 24 25 12 15 2 22 -2 123-1-3 Democrat 55 44 49 50 59 61 61 51 52 51 59 44 52Independent 9 11 10 4 9 8 9 7 9 8 9 6 9Republican 35 45 41 46 32 29 30 42 38 41 32 50 393-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 -1 9 4 27 32 31 9 14 10 27 -6 13

White Party IDTotal answering (1012) (200) (278) (232) (297) (172) (248) (239) (309) (172) (248) (239) (309)Strong Democrat 24 15 23 22 31 15 23 21 31 15 23 21 31Weak Democrat 16 19 14 15 18 21 23 15 11 21 23 15 11Lean Democrat 11 9 12 13 10 15 13 8 10 15 13 8 10Independent 9 11 10 4 9 8 9 6 9 8 9 6 9Lean Republican 9 11 10 9 8 7 8 12 9 7 8 12 9Weak Republican 14 17 13 17 10 19 8 16 14 19 8 16 14Strong Republican 17 17 17 20 14 15 16 21 16 15 16 21 16(Don't know/Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02-3-2 Democrat 40 34 37 37 49 36 46 36 42 36 46 36 42Independent 29 32 32 26 27 30 30 27 28 30 30 27 28Republican 31 34 31 37 24 34 24 37 30 34 24 37 302-3-2 Dem - Rep 9 0 6 0 25 2 22 -2 12 2 22 -2 123-1-3 Democrat 51 44 49 50 59 51 59 44 52 51 59 44 52Independent 9 11 10 4 9 8 9 6 9 8 9 6 9Republican 40 45 41 46 32 41 32 50 39 41 32 50 393-1-3 Dem - Rep 11 -1 9 4 27 10 27 -6 13 10 27 -6 13

Page 339

Total WHT GEN/EDUC AGE/EDUC WHT AGE/EDUC

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

MemberHhold

memberNo

memberTotal Union Member

Hhold member

No member

Total Union Member

No member

Total Union

Party RegistrationTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Democrat 45 55 32 44 48 58 20 40 45 51 54 53Republican 32 30 35 31 32 30 42 38 35 29 18 26DTS 19 11 34 20 17 10 38 19 18 13 24 17Other 4 4 0 4 3 3 0 4 3 7 4 3

White Party RegistrationTotal answering (1012) (121) (56) (787) (215) (121) (56) (787) (215) (0) (0) (0)Democrat 41 58 20 40 45 58 20 40 45 0 0 0Republican 37 30 42 38 35 30 42 38 35 0 0 0DTS 18 10 38 19 18 10 38 19 18 0 0 0Other 4 3 0 4 3 3 0 4 3 0 0 0

Latino Party RegistrationTotal answering (287) (20) (19) (225) (56) (0) (0) (5) (1) (20) (220) (56)Democrat 57 41 59 59 51 0 0 0 0 41 60 52Republican 22 34 27 20 31 0 0 100 100 34 18 30DTS 17 14 14 18 14 0 0 0 0 14 19 14Other 3 11 0 3 4 0 0 0 0 11 3 4

Party IDTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Strong Democrat 25 32 15 25 25 37 9 23 26 20 31 22Weak Democrat 19 20 9 19 18 17 9 16 16 27 25 23Lean Democrat 11 10 29 10 14 10 33 10 15 10 11 13Independent 9 7 6 9 8 4 5 9 6 14 8 12Lean Republican 9 5 11 9 9 3 11 10 8 9 8 9Weak Republican 12 11 20 12 13 12 22 14 14 9 8 11Strong Republican 14 14 10 14 12 17 11 18 15 6 7 6(Don't know/Refused) 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 5 3 32-3-2 Democrat 44 52 24 44 43 54 17 39 42 47 56 45Independent 29 22 45 28 31 17 49 29 30 33 26 34Republican 26 25 30 26 25 29 33 31 28 15 15 172-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 27 -6 18 18 25 -16 8 14 32 41 283-1-3 Democrat 55 62 53 55 57 64 51 49 57 57 67 58Independent 9 7 6 9 8 4 5 9 6 14 8 12Republican 35 30 40 35 33 32 44 41 37 24 23 263-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 32 13 20 24 32 6 8 20 33 44 32

White Party IDTotal answering (1012) (121) (56) (787) (215) (121) (56) (787) (215) (0) (0) (0)Strong Democrat 24 37 9 23 26 37 9 23 26 0 0 0Weak Democrat 16 17 9 16 16 17 9 16 16 0 0 0Lean Democrat 11 10 33 10 15 10 33 10 15 0 0 0Independent 9 4 5 9 6 4 5 9 6 0 0 0Lean Republican 9 3 11 10 8 3 11 10 8 0 0 0Weak Republican 14 12 22 14 14 12 22 14 14 0 0 0Strong Republican 17 17 11 18 15 17 11 18 15 0 0 0(Don't know/Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02-3-2 Democrat 40 54 17 39 42 54 17 39 42 0 0 0Independent 29 17 49 29 30 17 49 29 30 0 0 0Republican 31 29 33 31 28 29 33 31 28 0 0 02-3-2 Dem - Rep 9 25 -16 8 14 25 -16 8 14 0 0 03-1-3 Democrat 51 64 51 49 57 64 51 49 57 0 0 0Independent 9 4 5 9 6 4 5 9 6 0 0 0Republican 40 32 44 41 37 32 44 41 37 0 0 03-1-3 Dem - Rep 11 32 6 8 20 32 6 8 20 0 0 0

Page 340

NONWT UNIONTotal UNION WHT UNION

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Married Single

Sep Divor ced

Wid owed

Sep Div Wid

Unmarr ied

Married Women

Unmarr ied

WomenMarried

MenUnmarr ied Men

Voted in person

Voted by mail

Party RegistrationTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Democrat 45 44 45 50 53 51 47 47 51 41 42 48 43Republican 32 37 20 27 33 29 24 36 22 38 26 29 38DTS 19 16 29 20 11 17 25 16 22 15 28 20 15Other 4 3 6 2 3 2 4 1 5 5 4 4 3

White Party RegistrationTotal answering (1012) (610) (218) (105) (69) (174) (392) (300) (224) (310) (168) (458) (461)Democrat 41 39 38 48 53 50 43 41 46 38 40 43 39Republican 37 43 24 31 37 33 28 42 26 43 31 34 43DTS 18 15 32 19 9 15 25 16 23 13 27 20 14Other 4 3 6 2 1 2 4 1 5 6 2 4 4

Latino Party RegistrationTotal answering (287) (141) (112) (20) (10) (30) (142) (79) (81) (62) (62) (147) (77)Democrat 57 57 58 57 50 55 57 61 61 51 53 58 56Republican 22 25 18 30 22 27 20 21 20 30 20 24 24DTS 17 16 20 9 21 13 19 16 17 17 21 15 16Other 3 2 4 3 7 4 4 2 2 3 6 2 4

Party IDTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Strong Democrat 25 24 25 28 33 30 27 28 30 20 22 29 23Weak Democrat 19 18 24 14 15 15 21 19 19 17 23 21 16Lean Democrat 11 8 17 17 9 14 16 8 16 8 16 10 10Independent 9 9 8 6 9 7 8 6 7 13 8 8 8Lean Republican 9 10 5 8 12 9 7 9 7 11 6 9 9Weak Republican 12 14 10 12 8 10 10 13 7 14 14 10 14Strong Republican 14 16 8 14 15 14 11 16 11 16 10 11 17(Don't know/Refused) 2 1 2 1 0 0 2 1 2 0 1 1 22-3-2 Democrat 44 42 49 43 49 45 47 47 49 38 46 50 39Independent 29 27 30 31 29 30 30 23 30 32 30 28 28Republican 26 30 18 26 23 25 21 29 18 30 24 21 322-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 13 30 17 26 20 27 18 30 8 22 29 73-1-3 Democrat 55 50 66 60 57 59 63 55 64 46 62 60 49Independent 9 9 8 6 9 7 8 6 7 13 8 8 8Republican 35 40 24 34 34 34 28 38 26 41 30 31 413-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 10 42 26 23 25 36 16 39 4 32 29 8

White Party IDTotal answering (1012) (610) (218) (105) (69) (174) (392) (300) (224) (310) (168) (458) (461)Strong Democrat 24 22 21 28 33 30 25 26 27 18 22 27 21Weak Democrat 16 16 19 12 15 13 17 18 15 15 18 17 16Lean Democrat 11 8 20 19 7 15 17 7 18 8 17 11 10Independent 9 8 11 5 7 6 8 5 9 12 8 9 8Lean Republican 9 10 5 9 13 11 8 9 7 12 8 10 9Weak Republican 14 16 11 13 9 11 11 15 10 16 12 12 17Strong Republican 17 19 13 14 17 15 14 20 13 18 15 15 21(Don't know/Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 02-3-2 Democrat 40 39 40 40 48 43 41 44 42 33 40 44 36Independent 29 26 36 33 27 31 34 21 34 32 33 30 26Republican 31 35 24 27 25 26 25 35 24 34 27 27 372-3-2 Dem - Rep 9 4 15 14 22 17 16 9 19 -1 13 17 -13-1-3 Democrat 51 46 59 59 55 58 59 51 60 42 57 55 46Independent 9 8 11 5 7 6 8 5 9 12 8 9 8Republican 40 45 30 36 38 37 33 44 31 46 36 37 463-1-3 Dem - Rep 11 1 29 24 17 21 26 7 29 -4 21 18 0

Page 341

Total MARITAL MARITAL/GENDER 2008

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Voted in person

Voted by mail A B Cell Landline Base Latino

Party RegistrationTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Democrat 45 49 41 44 46 43 46 42 58Republican 32 31 42 31 32 21 33 34 21DTS 19 16 14 20 19 31 18 20 18Other 4 4 3 4 3 6 3 4 2

White Party RegistrationTotal answering (1012) (380) (316) (504) (508) (135) (877) (957) (55)Democrat 41 48 38 40 42 41 41 41 40Republican 37 34 46 36 38 21 39 37 40DTS 18 14 12 20 17 31 16 18 20Other 4 4 3 5 2 6 3 4 0

Latino Party RegistrationTotal answering (287) (82) (42) (142) (146) (15) (272) (45) (242)Democrat 57 51 53 60 55 35 59 33 62Republican 22 28 26 22 22 28 22 46 18DTS 17 19 17 16 18 27 17 15 18Other 3 2 5 2 4 11 3 6 2

Party IDTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Strong Democrat 25 30 25 25 26 22 26 24 30Weak Democrat 19 18 14 20 18 25 18 17 25Lean Democrat 11 10 9 11 12 19 10 11 12Independent 9 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 8Lean Republican 9 11 10 9 9 7 9 10 7Weak Republican 12 10 14 12 12 6 13 13 9Strong Republican 14 13 20 14 13 12 14 16 7(Don't know/Refused) 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 32-3-2 Democrat 44 47 39 45 44 47 44 41 55Independent 29 28 26 27 30 34 28 29 27Republican 26 23 33 26 25 18 27 29 152-3-2 Dem - Rep 18 24 6 19 18 29 17 12 403-1-3 Democrat 55 57 48 55 55 66 54 52 67Independent 9 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 8Republican 35 34 43 35 35 25 36 38 223-1-3 Dem - Rep 21 23 5 21 21 41 18 14 46

White Party IDTotal answering (1012) (380) (316) (504) (508) (135) (877) (957) (55)Strong Democrat 24 28 24 23 24 20 24 23 37Weak Democrat 16 17 14 18 15 23 15 16 14Lean Democrat 11 9 9 10 12 23 10 12 2Independent 9 9 6 8 9 8 9 9 7Lean Republican 9 11 9 9 10 6 10 9 12Weak Republican 14 11 15 15 13 5 15 14 14Strong Republican 17 15 23 17 17 14 17 17 15(Don't know/Refused) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02-3-2 Democrat 40 45 38 41 39 43 39 39 50Independent 29 29 25 27 31 37 28 30 20Republican 31 26 38 32 30 20 32 31 292-3-2 Dem - Rep 9 18 0 9 9 24 7 8 213-1-3 Democrat 51 54 46 51 51 66 49 51 52Independent 9 9 6 8 9 8 9 9 7Republican 40 37 47 40 40 26 42 40 413-1-3 Dem - Rep 11 17 -1 11 11 40 6 11 12

Page 342

PHONE SAMPLETotal 2006 SPLIT

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LIKELY

Likely Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS

Reg Rep Not ID Rep

Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Mod erate

Conser vative

Latino Party IDTotal answering (287) (122) (154) (82) (44) (165) (64) (49) (33) (37) (86) (103) (84)Strong Democrat 27 28 51 0 0 42 4 12 8 0 33 33 16Weak Democrat 26 20 49 0 0 35 9 19 17 0 29 23 27Lean Democrat 14 17 0 48 0 10 6 33 11 45 24 9 9Independent 8 7 0 29 0 4 9 23 18 16 5 11 8Lean Republican 6 8 0 23 0 3 18 5 35 12 1 10 8Weak Republican 9 11 0 0 60 2 29 6 0 9 5 7 18Strong Republican 6 8 0 0 40 2 20 2 0 8 4 5 11(Don't know/Refused) 3 1 0 0 0 2 6 0 12 10 1 1 32-3-2 Democrat 54 48 100 0 0 77 13 31 25 0 62 56 42Independent 29 32 0 100 0 17 32 61 64 73 29 30 26Republican 15 19 0 0 100 4 49 8 0 17 8 12 292-3-2 Dem - Rep 38 28 100 0 -100 73 -36 23 25 -17 54 44 133-1-3 Democrat 67 64 100 48 0 87 18 64 36 45 86 65 51Independent 8 7 0 29 0 4 9 23 18 16 5 11 8Republican 22 28 0 23 100 7 67 13 35 30 9 23 373-1-3 Dem - Rep 46 37 100 26 -100 81 -48 51 2 15 77 43 14

IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Liberal 27 27 47 18 4 44 4 24 7 22 100 0 0Moderate 40 37 38 51 32 37 34 54 44 47 0 100 0Conservative 30 34 12 27 64 15 59 19 40 24 0 0 100(Don't know) 3 2 3 4 1 4 2 2 6 6 0 0 0(Refuse) 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 0 0 0

White IdeologyTotal answering (1012) (618) (402) (297) (311) (415) (374) (186) (101) (83) (268) (411) (315)Liberal 27 28 53 16 2 47 3 26 5 15 100 0 0Moderate 41 37 38 56 30 39 35 53 55 56 0 100 0Conservative 31 34 7 24 68 10 61 20 36 23 0 0 100(Don't know) 2 1 2 3 0 2 1 0 4 5 0 0 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

Latino IdeologyTotal answering (287) (122) (154) (82) (44) (165) (64) (49) (33) (37) (86) (103) (84)Liberal 30 29 35 31 16 37 10 34 9 36 100 0 0Moderate 36 34 38 38 28 35 30 46 32 32 0 100 0Conservative 29 35 23 27 56 22 54 18 48 23 0 0 100(Don't know) 5 1 4 5 0 5 6 2 12 8 0 0 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0

Party/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Liberal Dem 25 26 47 16 0 42 2 22 6 16 94 0 0Mod/Cons Dem 28 26 50 22 0 43 6 31 19 27 0 55 22Lib/Mod Rep 13 12 0 13 36 3 27 13 18 15 4 30 0Conservative Rep 21 26 0 18 64 3 54 13 27 14 0 0 72Unallocated 12 10 3 32 1 9 10 22 31 27 2 15 6

Party Registration/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Liberal Dem 20 20 40 6 1 44 0 0 0 22 74 0 0Mod/Cons Dem 23 23 38 18 5 52 0 0 0 70 0 42 22Lib/Mod Rep 12 14 3 14 27 0 38 0 51 0 4 27 0Conservative Rep 19 22 1 13 56 0 59 0 40 0 0 0 62Unallocated 26 22 19 49 11 5 3 100 9 8 22 30 15

Page 343

IDEOLOGYTotal PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS

Page 344: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated Right Wrong

Latino Party IDTotal answering (287) (74) (110) (31) (31) (41) (61) (94) (26) (34) (72) (50) (203)Strong Democrat 27 38 42 0 0 8 45 41 7 2 13 26 26Weak Democrat 26 34 42 0 0 10 32 37 7 8 23 31 25Lean Democrat 14 28 16 0 0 5 12 8 8 5 30 13 15Independent 8 0 0 0 0 59 3 4 6 11 18 4 11Lean Republican 6 0 0 37 22 0 1 4 22 16 4 1 7Weak Republican 9 0 0 35 49 0 3 2 30 32 6 12 9Strong Republican 6 0 0 28 28 0 2 2 18 23 2 8 7(Don't know/Refused) 3 0 0 0 0 18 1 2 0 4 5 5 22-3-2 Democrat 54 72 84 0 0 18 77 78 15 10 36 57 51Independent 29 28 16 37 22 64 17 16 37 32 51 18 32Republican 15 0 0 63 78 0 5 4 48 55 8 20 162-3-2 Dem - Rep 38 72 84 -63 -78 18 72 75 -34 -45 28 37 353-1-3 Democrat 67 100 100 0 0 23 90 86 23 14 66 70 66Independent 8 0 0 0 0 59 3 4 6 11 18 4 11Republican 22 0 0 100 100 0 7 8 71 71 12 20 223-1-3 Dem - Rep 46 100 100 -100 -100 23 83 78 -48 -57 54 50 43

IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Liberal 27 100 0 9 0 5 100 0 10 0 23 38 25Moderate 40 0 77 91 0 49 0 72 90 0 46 32 40Conservative 30 0 23 0 100 15 0 28 0 100 18 25 32(Don't know) 3 0 0 0 0 23 0 0 0 0 11 5 2(Refuse) 1 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 3 0 1

White IdeologyTotal answering (1012) (257) (250) (138) (267) (101) (197) (207) (141) (229) (239) (73) (866)Liberal 27 100 0 6 0 4 100 0 7 0 26 45 23Moderate 41 0 87 94 0 65 0 79 93 0 49 36 41Conservative 31 0 13 0 100 13 0 21 0 100 18 15 34(Don't know) 2 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 0 7 4 1(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

Latino IdeologyTotal answering (287) (74) (110) (31) (31) (41) (61) (94) (26) (34) (72) (50) (203)Liberal 30 100 0 25 0 11 100 0 26 0 26 32 31Moderate 36 0 61 75 0 30 0 61 74 0 36 22 37Conservative 29 0 39 0 100 23 0 39 0 100 17 43 26(Don't know) 5 0 0 0 0 34 0 0 0 0 19 3 5(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

Party/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Liberal Dem 25 100 0 0 0 0 97 0 5 0 20 33 23Mod/Cons Dem 28 0 100 0 0 0 0 82 12 3 27 38 27Lib/Mod Rep 13 0 0 100 0 0 2 5 72 0 10 14 13Conservative Rep 21 0 0 0 100 0 0 6 0 92 11 7 24Unallocated 12 0 0 0 0 100 1 7 12 5 31 9 13

Party Registration/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Liberal Dem 20 76 0 2 0 2 100 0 0 0 0 26 18Mod/Cons Dem 23 0 68 9 6 14 0 100 0 0 0 30 22Lib/Mod Rep 12 2 5 68 0 11 0 0 100 0 0 9 13Conservative Rep 19 0 2 0 80 7 0 0 0 100 0 7 21Unallocated 26 21 25 21 14 66 0 0 0 0 100 29 26

Page 344

Total PTY/IDEO PTYREG/IDEO STATE DIR

Page 345: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

10 8-10 6-10 0-5 0-7 BrownWhit man Und Ref

Latino Party IDTotal answering (287) (66) (145) (208) (77) (140) (146) (93) (45)Strong Democrat 27 29 28 28 25 26 36 21 13Weak Democrat 26 24 24 25 31 29 27 20 36Lean Democrat 14 8 14 14 14 14 17 7 19Independent 8 7 7 7 11 10 6 12 9Lean Republican 6 9 8 5 9 5 4 12 3Weak Republican 9 11 9 11 5 10 6 17 2Strong Republican 6 11 9 8 1 3 4 10 5(Don't know/Refused) 3 1 1 2 4 4 0 1 132-3-2 Democrat 54 54 52 53 56 55 64 40 48Independent 29 24 29 27 34 29 27 32 31Republican 15 22 18 19 7 13 9 27 82-3-2 Dem - Rep 38 31 35 34 49 42 54 14 413-1-3 Democrat 67 61 67 67 70 68 80 48 68Independent 8 7 7 7 11 10 6 12 9Republican 22 31 26 24 16 18 14 39 113-1-3 Dem - Rep 46 30 41 43 54 51 67 9 57

IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Liberal 27 23 25 26 28 29 44 10 20Moderate 40 29 34 38 43 45 41 38 43Conservative 30 44 37 32 24 22 12 49 26(Don't know) 3 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 7(Refuse) 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 4

White IdeologyTotal answering (1012) (340) (527) (729) (279) (481) (461) (450) (77)Liberal 27 24 25 26 29 29 47 7 22Moderate 41 29 34 39 45 48 41 38 53Conservative 31 45 40 34 24 21 10 55 22(Don't know) 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 2(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

Latino IdeologyTotal answering (287) (66) (145) (208) (77) (140) (146) (93) (45)Liberal 30 27 28 30 29 33 39 21 19Moderate 36 27 35 36 37 37 39 34 31Conservative 29 40 34 31 25 24 22 36 35(Don't know) 5 6 3 3 8 6 0 7 14(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1

Party/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Liberal Dem 25 21 24 25 26 27 42 9 16Mod/Cons Dem 28 23 26 28 29 31 40 18 26Lib/Mod Rep 13 13 12 13 13 13 7 20 12Conservative Rep 21 34 28 24 14 14 5 42 12Unallocated 12 9 10 10 18 15 7 11 34

Party Registration/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Liberal Dem 20 19 20 21 18 20 35 6 11Mod/Cons Dem 23 19 21 23 26 26 30 16 26Lib/Mod Rep 12 13 13 13 11 10 7 18 11Conservative Rep 19 31 25 21 12 12 4 36 12Unallocated 26 19 21 23 34 32 23 25 40

Page 345

Total ENTHUSIASM GOV VOTE

Page 346: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Latino Party IDTotal answering (287) (56) (43) (26) (21) (37) (32) (37) (35) (99) (47) (69) (72) (116)Strong Democrat 27 44 32 36 25 16 26 11 20 39 31 21 15 25Weak Democrat 26 22 26 18 54 31 34 36 0 24 34 33 18 33Lean Democrat 14 21 15 19 7 25 10 7 0 18 13 18 4 16Independent 8 1 11 8 6 9 8 12 14 5 7 9 13 8Lean Republican 6 3 5 4 6 3 1 11 20 4 5 2 15 3Weak Republican 9 5 8 7 2 8 16 3 25 6 4 12 14 9Strong Republican 6 4 2 9 0 3 0 11 20 3 5 2 15 3(Don't know/Refused) 3 0 1 0 0 4 4 10 1 0 0 4 6 22-3-2 Democrat 54 66 58 54 79 47 60 46 20 63 65 53 33 58Independent 29 25 31 30 20 38 20 30 34 28 25 30 32 28Republican 15 9 10 16 2 11 16 14 45 9 10 13 29 122-3-2 Dem - Rep 38 58 48 38 77 37 44 32 -25 53 56 40 4 463-1-3 Democrat 67 87 73 72 86 73 70 54 20 81 79 72 37 74Independent 8 1 11 8 6 9 8 12 14 5 7 9 13 8Republican 22 12 15 20 8 14 17 25 65 13 14 15 44 153-1-3 Dem - Rep 46 76 57 52 78 59 53 29 -45 68 64 56 -7 60

IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Liberal 27 54 37 25 29 24 19 17 4 49 27 22 7 24Moderate 40 34 43 64 50 45 50 44 31 36 58 47 34 51Conservative 30 10 18 11 18 26 22 30 63 12 14 24 55 20(Don't know) 3 2 2 0 3 3 8 6 2 2 1 5 3 4(Refuse) 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 3 1 0 0 2 1 1

White IdeologyTotal answering (1012) (295) (83) (54) (29) (73) (70) (92) (317) (378) (83) (142) (409) (226)Liberal 27 56 32 25 31 25 14 20 2 51 27 19 6 22Moderate 41 33 49 68 51 59 57 50 29 37 62 58 34 59Conservative 31 7 16 7 18 17 24 29 68 9 11 20 59 17(Don't know) 2 2 3 0 0 0 3 1 1 3 0 2 1 1(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

Latino IdeologyTotal answering (287) (56) (43) (26) (21) (37) (32) (37) (35) (99) (47) (69) (72) (116)Liberal 30 44 45 32 24 30 30 15 9 44 28 30 12 29Moderate 36 38 26 51 52 27 47 27 30 33 51 36 29 42Conservative 29 18 29 17 23 29 17 45 54 23 20 24 50 22(Don't know) 5 0 1 0 2 13 6 12 5 0 1 10 9 6(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 1 0

Party/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Liberal Dem 25 52 34 20 29 23 17 14 3 47 24 20 6 22Mod/Cons Dem 28 35 42 56 39 32 25 22 11 37 49 29 14 36Lib/Mod Rep 13 3 9 14 20 12 18 22 18 4 17 15 19 15Conservative Rep 21 4 7 4 6 9 16 21 57 5 5 12 48 9Unallocated 12 6 8 6 5 24 24 20 11 7 6 24 14 18

Party Registration/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Liberal Dem 20 43 33 17 20 13 11 10 2 40 18 12 4 14Mod/Cons Dem 23 28 34 35 30 29 23 16 12 30 33 27 13 29Lib/Mod Rep 12 5 6 14 16 13 18 16 17 5 14 15 17 15Conservative Rep 19 3 8 2 3 11 12 19 48 5 3 11 40 8Unallocated 26 21 19 32 31 34 36 39 21 21 32 35 26 34

Page 346

Total BROWN VCS

Page 347: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Latino Party IDTotal answering (287) (31) (22) (22) (18) (40) (33) (59) (62) (53) (40) (73) (121) (112)Strong Democrat 27 20 15 22 27 17 32 29 40 18 24 24 35 24Weak Democrat 26 0 22 33 35 49 29 23 23 9 34 40 23 38Lean Democrat 14 0 4 8 23 11 16 16 22 2 15 13 19 14Independent 8 16 17 12 0 10 6 10 1 16 7 8 5 8Lean Republican 6 21 16 2 5 4 3 5 3 19 3 4 4 3Weak Republican 9 24 6 23 10 3 5 6 6 17 17 4 6 9Strong Republican 6 20 14 0 0 3 9 3 4 17 0 5 4 4(Don't know/Refused) 3 0 5 0 0 4 0 7 1 2 0 2 4 12-3-2 Democrat 54 20 38 55 62 65 61 52 63 27 58 63 58 61Independent 29 36 37 22 28 25 25 32 26 37 25 25 29 25Republican 15 44 20 23 10 6 14 9 10 34 17 10 10 122-3-2 Dem - Rep 38 -24 18 32 52 59 47 43 53 -7 41 54 48 493-1-3 Democrat 67 20 42 63 85 76 77 68 85 29 73 77 77 75Independent 8 16 17 12 0 10 6 10 1 16 7 8 5 8Republican 22 64 35 25 15 10 17 14 13 52 20 13 14 163-1-3 Dem - Rep 46 -44 6 38 70 66 60 54 72 -24 52 63 63 60

IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Liberal 27 3 14 24 23 24 22 33 51 6 24 23 46 23Moderate 40 30 50 45 46 47 64 40 34 35 46 55 35 52Conservative 30 65 29 27 27 23 11 21 12 56 27 17 15 21(Don't know) 3 1 5 3 3 4 2 5 2 2 3 3 3 3(Refuse) 1 0 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1

White IdeologyTotal answering (1012) (293) (80) (44) (33) (62) (74) (106) (320) (373) (77) (136) (426) (213)Liberal 27 2 17 17 17 29 21 30 54 5 17 24 48 22Moderate 41 28 54 53 64 51 71 45 34 34 58 62 37 60Conservative 31 70 29 30 19 21 7 19 9 61 25 13 12 18(Don't know) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 5 2 1 0 0 3 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

Latino IdeologyTotal answering (287) (31) (22) (22) (18) (40) (33) (59) (62) (53) (40) (73) (121) (112)Liberal 30 7 6 39 43 17 31 38 43 6 41 23 41 30Moderate 36 34 38 41 23 41 50 28 35 36 33 45 31 41Conservative 29 53 45 18 21 34 19 28 22 49 19 27 25 24(Don't know) 5 5 12 2 13 7 0 6 1 8 7 4 3 5(Refuse) 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0

Party/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Liberal Dem 25 2 14 21 23 23 18 30 49 5 22 21 43 21Mod/Cons Dem 28 11 21 23 40 36 45 36 33 13 31 41 34 37Lib/Mod Rep 13 19 23 24 15 14 15 9 3 20 19 15 5 16Conservative Rep 21 59 24 21 12 9 4 10 5 50 16 6 7 10Unallocated 12 9 18 11 11 18 17 15 9 12 11 18 11 15

Party Registration/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Liberal Dem 20 2 9 13 11 15 15 27 40 3 12 15 36 14Mod/Cons Dem 23 12 13 18 36 30 29 31 27 13 27 30 28 29Lib/Mod Rep 12 17 21 19 13 12 17 6 5 18 16 14 6 15Conservative Rep 19 49 23 16 10 9 3 10 5 43 13 6 6 9Unallocated 26 20 34 34 30 35 35 26 22 23 32 35 24 34

Page 347

Total WHITMAN VCS

Page 348: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Brown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

better

Govt back

groundBiz back ground

Brown better

Whit man

better Boxer Fiorina DK/ Ref

Latino Party IDTotal answering (287) (132) (67) (119) (74) (122) (98) (115) (151) (104) (91) (173) (62) (48)Strong Democrat 27 37 22 35 27 36 24 33 23 47 17 40 10 7Weak Democrat 26 29 22 31 19 27 21 24 30 19 27 27 18 33Lean Democrat 14 13 3 14 6 17 5 15 13 13 9 16 7 15Independent 8 5 7 3 11 6 13 7 8 3 11 4 12 21Lean Republican 6 2 17 1 13 2 11 6 6 2 14 4 16 5Weak Republican 9 6 14 9 13 5 16 8 10 9 12 5 21 5Strong Republican 6 5 13 5 12 5 10 5 8 6 9 3 17 2(Don't know/Refused) 3 0 2 1 0 2 0 2 2 0 1 1 0 102-3-2 Democrat 54 67 45 66 46 63 45 57 53 66 44 67 28 40Independent 29 21 27 19 30 24 29 28 27 18 34 24 34 42Republican 15 12 27 15 25 10 26 13 18 16 21 8 38 72-3-2 Dem - Rep 38 55 18 51 21 53 19 44 35 50 22 58 -10 333-1-3 Democrat 67 80 48 80 51 80 50 72 66 79 52 83 35 56Independent 8 5 7 3 11 6 13 7 8 3 11 4 12 21Republican 22 14 43 16 38 12 38 20 24 18 36 12 53 123-1-3 Dem - Rep 46 66 5 64 13 68 12 52 42 61 17 71 -19 43

IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Liberal 27 43 10 44 12 44 13 39 15 47 9 42 8 17Moderate 40 41 35 39 38 40 37 41 38 37 40 42 35 47Conservative 30 14 53 15 48 14 47 17 44 13 48 12 55 23(Don't know) 3 2 1 2 1 2 1 3 2 3 2 3 2 8(Refuse) 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 4

White IdeologyTotal answering (1012) (455) (360) (336) (420) (318) (488) (499) (458) (333) (492) (508) (440) (59)Liberal 27 46 5 47 9 49 9 42 11 53 6 46 5 17Moderate 41 42 36 40 37 39 38 42 37 36 40 44 34 56Conservative 31 10 59 11 53 9 53 15 50 8 53 7 60 22(Don't know) 2 2 0 2 0 2 1 2 1 3 1 2 1 4(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

Latino IdeologyTotal answering (287) (132) (67) (119) (74) (122) (98) (115) (151) (104) (91) (173) (62) (48)Liberal 30 36 25 36 26 35 28 32 30 35 20 38 18 17Moderate 36 40 27 35 34 38 36 41 32 36 43 35 35 41Conservative 29 22 42 27 35 25 33 24 33 26 34 24 45 25(Don't know) 5 2 4 2 5 2 2 2 5 2 4 3 2 16(Refuse) 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

Party/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Liberal Dem 25 40 9 41 11 42 11 37 13 45 9 41 6 14Mod/Cons Dem 28 39 16 40 20 40 21 34 22 35 21 41 11 28Lib/Mod Rep 13 8 18 7 19 7 18 10 17 8 18 6 22 10Conservative Rep 21 5 46 6 42 4 40 9 35 5 41 4 48 10Unallocated 12 8 10 7 8 7 10 10 12 6 12 8 12 38

Party Registration/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Liberal Dem 20 33 7 35 9 35 8 30 9 37 7 32 4 12Mod/Cons Dem 23 30 14 31 17 33 17 29 18 28 19 31 13 27Lib/Mod Rep 12 8 17 7 15 7 16 8 16 7 16 6 20 13Conservative Rep 19 5 39 5 35 4 34 9 30 5 35 3 42 9Unallocated 26 23 23 22 23 21 25 24 26 22 24 27 22 39

Page 348

ENERGY BCKGRND ECONOMY SEN VOTETotal UNDERSTAND CLEAR PLAN

Page 349: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Latino Party IDTotal answering (287) (53) (39) (43) (38) (28) (14) (28) (45) (92) (81) (41) (73) (122)Strong Democrat 27 56 20 38 38 10 13 8 7 41 38 11 7 29Weak Democrat 26 18 37 26 30 26 43 37 12 26 28 32 21 29Lean Democrat 14 20 20 15 10 16 9 17 2 20 13 14 8 13Independent 8 0 9 4 3 23 6 21 11 4 3 17 14 8Lean Republican 6 0 1 4 11 6 2 4 21 0 7 4 14 6Weak Republican 9 3 10 6 2 9 17 7 23 6 5 12 17 7Strong Republican 6 4 1 6 2 4 2 5 20 3 4 3 14 4(Don't know/Refused) 3 0 3 0 3 6 7 2 4 1 2 6 3 32-3-2 Democrat 54 74 56 64 69 36 57 45 19 67 66 43 29 58Independent 29 20 29 23 24 45 16 42 34 24 23 35 37 28Republican 15 6 11 12 4 13 20 12 43 8 9 15 31 112-3-2 Dem - Rep 38 68 45 52 64 23 37 33 -24 58 58 28 -2 483-1-3 Democrat 67 94 76 79 79 52 65 62 22 86 79 57 37 71Independent 8 0 9 4 3 23 6 21 11 4 3 17 14 8Republican 22 6 12 17 15 19 21 16 64 9 16 20 45 173-1-3 Dem - Rep 46 87 64 63 63 34 44 46 -42 77 63 37 -9 54

IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Liberal 27 54 25 41 27 23 25 14 3 46 34 24 5 30Moderate 40 35 55 43 48 52 48 43 30 41 45 50 33 47Conservative 30 7 17 15 22 19 21 34 64 10 18 20 58 19(Don't know) 3 3 2 1 3 3 6 6 2 3 2 5 3 3(Refuse) 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 1

White IdeologyTotal answering (1012) (278) (102) (71) (56) (43) (45) (62) (354) (381) (127) (88) (416) (215)Liberal 27 58 24 49 28 25 22 5 3 49 40 23 3 33Moderate 41 35 62 44 57 60 50 49 30 42 50 55 33 52Conservative 31 4 12 7 12 15 27 41 66 6 9 21 63 14(Don't know) 2 3 2 0 1 0 1 5 1 2 1 1 1 1(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0

Latino IdeologyTotal answering (287) (53) (39) (43) (38) (28) (14) (28) (45) (92) (81) (41) (73) (122)Liberal 30 57 28 36 24 9 25 42 6 45 31 14 20 25Moderate 36 25 37 39 41 48 49 36 28 30 40 48 31 43Conservative 29 12 32 24 32 31 20 16 59 21 28 27 43 28(Don't know) 5 6 3 0 1 11 6 6 8 5 1 9 7 4(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1

Party/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Liberal Dem 25 53 25 37 25 20 23 10 2 45 31 22 3 27Mod/Cons Dem 28 34 51 43 47 31 22 18 9 39 45 27 11 37Lib/Mod Rep 13 3 8 7 16 15 20 20 21 4 12 17 21 14Conservative Rep 21 2 7 6 4 6 16 23 57 4 5 11 50 7Unallocated 12 8 9 7 8 28 18 30 12 8 7 23 15 14

Party Registration/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Liberal Dem 20 43 21 27 16 18 10 10 1 37 22 14 3 19Mod/Cons Dem 23 27 42 33 24 35 13 15 12 32 29 24 12 27Lib/Mod Rep 12 5 9 5 8 12 20 19 19 6 7 16 19 10Conservative Rep 19 2 5 3 6 9 16 20 48 3 5 12 42 8Unallocated 26 22 22 32 45 26 41 36 20 22 38 33 23 36

Page 349

Total BOXER VCS

Page 350: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

Latino Party IDTotal answering (287) (36) (13) (9) (61) (50) (53) (60) (49) (13) (111) (114) (124)Strong Democrat 27 5 10 8 27 34 18 49 6 21 30 34 29Weak Democrat 26 8 33 51 30 27 38 19 14 33 29 28 29Lean Democrat 14 3 5 9 11 14 20 19 3 18 12 19 13Independent 8 11 18 5 8 7 13 1 13 10 8 7 8Lean Republican 6 24 9 0 10 4 1 1 20 0 7 1 6Weak Republican 9 25 14 27 6 6 7 5 22 18 6 6 7Strong Republican 6 25 12 0 3 6 1 3 21 0 4 2 4(Don't know/Refused) 3 0 0 0 5 2 2 3 0 0 4 3 32-3-2 Democrat 54 13 43 59 57 61 56 68 21 55 59 62 59Independent 29 38 31 14 29 25 34 21 36 28 27 27 27Republican 15 49 26 27 9 11 8 8 43 18 10 8 112-3-2 Dem - Rep 38 -37 17 31 49 50 48 60 -23 37 49 54 483-1-3 Democrat 67 16 48 68 68 76 76 86 24 72 71 82 72Independent 8 11 18 5 8 7 13 1 13 10 8 7 8Republican 22 73 35 27 18 15 9 9 63 18 17 9 173-1-3 Dem - Rep 46 -57 13 40 50 60 67 77 -39 55 55 73 55

IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Liberal 27 3 11 28 23 36 25 52 4 29 29 44 29Moderate 40 30 45 48 47 45 53 35 32 49 46 41 46Conservative 30 66 39 16 23 18 16 8 62 17 21 11 20(Don't know) 3 1 4 8 4 1 3 4 1 5 3 4 3(Refuse) 1 0 1 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 1

White IdeologyTotal answering (1012) (343) (50) (33) (87) (86) (113) (287) (393) (47) (173) (400) (220)Liberal 27 3 4 26 27 42 22 56 3 25 34 47 32Moderate 41 29 51 48 56 46 62 36 32 51 51 43 51Conservative 31 68 44 25 15 12 12 4 64 24 13 7 16(Don't know) 2 0 1 2 1 0 4 3 1 1 0 3 1(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

Latino IdeologyTotal answering (287) (36) (13) (9) (61) (50) (53) (60) (49) (13) (111) (114) (124)Liberal 30 6 48 34 18 31 33 50 17 22 24 42 24Moderate 36 30 29 52 40 44 37 24 30 56 42 30 43Conservative 29 63 21 9 32 25 25 17 52 19 29 21 28(Don't know) 5 1 3 5 9 0 5 8 1 3 5 7 5(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1

Party/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Liberal Dem 25 2 8 27 21 32 25 51 3 27 26 42 26Mod/Cons Dem 28 8 15 16 39 40 48 34 9 21 39 39 36Lib/Mod Rep 13 22 26 22 16 7 7 3 23 22 12 4 14Conservative Rep 21 59 27 14 7 8 7 2 54 13 7 4 9Unallocated 12 9 23 21 18 13 13 10 11 16 16 11 16

Party Registration/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Liberal Dem 20 1 9 7 14 25 21 41 2 14 19 35 18Mod/Cons Dem 23 11 13 11 25 32 39 27 12 19 28 31 26Lib/Mod Rep 12 20 24 15 11 5 10 5 21 15 8 7 10Conservative Rep 19 50 26 14 9 5 4 2 46 15 7 3 9Unallocated 26 18 28 52 41 33 25 24 19 37 37 24 37

Page 350

Total FIORINA VCS

Page 351: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Support Obama

Oppose Obama

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better Favor Oppose

Impor tant

Not Impor tant

Latino Party IDTotal answering (287) (202) (59) (125) (60) (123) (56) (108) (61) (102) (104) (244) (41)Strong Democrat 27 34 12 41 18 41 16 45 17 23 26 29 13Weak Democrat 26 31 12 30 15 27 17 24 20 24 28 28 13Lean Democrat 14 15 9 11 11 17 6 14 10 17 14 15 9Independent 8 5 14 3 10 2 8 3 10 6 10 8 10Lean Republican 6 3 16 4 13 2 21 4 15 7 6 5 17Weak Republican 9 7 19 7 13 6 15 6 14 13 10 7 23Strong Republican 6 3 17 3 16 4 17 3 12 8 5 5 15(Don't know/Refused) 3 1 2 1 2 1 0 0 2 2 1 3 02-3-2 Democrat 54 65 23 71 33 68 34 69 37 47 53 58 26Independent 29 23 39 18 35 21 34 21 35 30 30 28 36Republican 15 10 36 10 30 10 32 9 26 21 16 12 382-3-2 Dem - Rep 38 55 -13 60 4 58 2 60 11 26 38 46 -113-1-3 Democrat 67 81 32 82 45 85 39 82 46 65 67 72 35Independent 8 5 14 3 10 2 8 3 10 6 10 8 10Republican 22 13 51 14 43 12 52 14 42 28 22 16 553-1-3 Dem - Rep 46 68 -19 67 1 73 -13 69 5 37 45 56 -20

IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Liberal 27 40 6 43 8 44 7 43 5 21 36 34 5Moderate 40 42 31 39 37 40 32 40 39 36 42 43 28Conservative 30 14 62 13 54 12 60 14 54 39 19 19 64(Don't know) 3 3 1 4 1 3 1 3 1 3 3 3 2(Refuse) 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0

White IdeologyTotal answering (1012) (537) (351) (341) (407) (422) (339) (371) (368) (390) (412) (721) (286)Liberal 27 44 3 50 4 49 4 46 3 17 38 36 3Moderate 41 45 31 40 36 42 30 43 38 38 43 45 28Conservative 31 9 65 7 59 6 65 9 59 44 17 17 68(Don't know) 2 2 0 3 1 2 0 2 0 1 2 2 1(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Latino IdeologyTotal answering (287) (202) (59) (125) (60) (123) (56) (108) (61) (102) (104) (244) (41)Liberal 30 35 17 35 20 41 18 40 19 31 33 32 17Moderate 36 35 36 37 35 32 41 35 42 26 36 37 28Conservative 29 24 46 25 44 23 41 25 36 36 28 25 54(Don't know) 5 5 1 3 1 3 0 0 3 6 3 5 1(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0

Party/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Liberal Dem 25 38 3 42 6 43 6 41 5 19 34 32 5Mod/Cons Dem 28 40 10 42 14 41 11 42 14 24 30 34 12Lib/Mod Rep 13 8 19 5 21 5 24 6 22 15 11 12 15Conservative Rep 21 4 57 3 47 4 53 4 48 31 13 9 59Unallocated 12 10 11 8 11 8 7 7 11 11 12 13 10

Party Registration/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Liberal Dem 20 30 3 35 5 35 4 35 3 14 27 25 3Mod/Cons Dem 23 30 11 33 15 31 12 33 15 19 24 27 11Lib/Mod Rep 12 8 17 6 19 6 19 6 20 12 12 12 13Conservative Rep 19 4 48 3 40 4 44 4 41 27 11 9 49Unallocated 26 28 21 23 21 24 20 22 21 27 26 27 23

Page 351

SHARE VALUES JOBS ECON PROP 23 GW IMPTTotal SENTYPE CHANGE

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

White Black Latino Asian Men Women Men Women Men Women

Latino Party IDTotal answering (287) (6) (0) (287) (0) (127) (160) (2) (4) (127) (160)Strong Democrat 27 0 0 27 0 24 30 0 0 24 30Weak Democrat 26 0 0 26 0 24 28 0 0 24 28Lean Democrat 14 0 0 14 0 15 13 0 0 15 13Independent 8 0 0 8 0 10 7 0 0 10 7Lean Republican 6 28 0 6 0 7 6 0 42 7 6Weak Republican 9 45 0 9 0 13 6 100 17 13 6Strong Republican 6 27 0 6 0 7 6 0 41 7 6(Don't know/Refused) 3 0 0 3 0 0 5 0 0 0 52-3-2 Democrat 54 0 0 54 0 48 58 0 0 48 58Independent 29 28 0 29 0 33 25 0 42 33 25Republican 15 72 0 15 0 19 12 100 58 19 122-3-2 Dem - Rep 38 -72 0 38 0 29 46 -100 -58 29 463-1-3 Democrat 67 0 0 67 0 63 71 0 0 63 71Independent 8 0 0 8 0 10 7 0 0 10 7Republican 22 100 0 22 0 26 18 100 100 26 183-1-3 Dem - Rep 46 -100 0 46 0 37 52 -100 -100 37 52

IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Liberal 27 27 37 30 22 27 27 26 27 33 27Moderate 40 41 32 36 52 39 40 41 40 29 41Conservative 30 31 22 29 18 30 30 31 31 33 26(Don't know) 3 2 6 5 5 4 2 2 1 5 5(Refuse) 1 0 4 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 1

White IdeologyTotal answering (1012) (1012) (6) (6) (0) (479) (533) (479) (533) (2) (4)Liberal 27 27 85 12 0 26 27 26 27 0 17Moderate 41 41 15 28 0 41 40 41 40 0 42Conservative 31 31 0 60 0 31 31 31 31 100 41(Don't know) 2 2 0 0 0 2 1 2 1 0 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Latino IdeologyTotal answering (287) (6) (0) (287) (0) (127) (160) (2) (4) (127) (160)Liberal 30 12 0 30 0 33 27 0 17 33 27Moderate 36 28 0 36 0 29 41 0 42 29 41Conservative 29 60 0 29 0 33 26 100 41 33 26(Don't know) 5 0 0 5 0 5 5 0 0 5 5(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

Party/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Liberal Dem 25 25 37 26 22 25 25 25 26 28 24Mod/Cons Dem 28 25 37 38 34 25 32 21 28 32 43Lib/Mod Rep 13 14 8 11 17 14 12 16 12 12 10Conservative Rep 21 26 7 11 11 22 21 27 26 14 8Unallocated 12 10 10 14 16 14 10 13 8 14 14

Party Registration/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Liberal Dem 20 19 20 21 21 19 21 18 21 22 20Mod/Cons Dem 23 20 31 33 17 21 26 19 22 27 37Lib/Mod Rep 12 14 7 9 12 13 12 15 13 8 10Conservative Rep 19 23 3 12 7 20 18 23 23 16 9Unallocated 26 24 39 25 43 28 24 25 22 27 24

Page 352

WHT GEN LAT GENTotal RACE GENDER

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over

Latino Party IDTotal answering (287) (113) (48) (44) (48) (29) (205) (76)Strong Democrat 27 22 17 31 34 47 22 39Weak Democrat 26 30 37 19 26 8 29 19Lean Democrat 14 20 15 9 4 13 16 7Independent 8 6 16 11 8 3 9 6Lean Republican 6 8 0 4 10 12 5 11Weak Republican 9 8 11 11 8 12 9 9Strong Republican 6 4 2 13 9 6 6 8(Don't know/Refused) 3 3 3 3 2 0 3 12-3-2 Democrat 54 52 53 50 60 55 52 58Independent 29 33 31 24 22 28 31 24Republican 15 12 13 23 16 17 15 172-3-2 Dem - Rep 38 40 40 27 44 37 37 413-1-3 Democrat 67 72 68 59 64 68 68 65Independent 8 6 16 11 8 3 9 6Republican 22 20 13 27 26 29 20 273-1-3 Dem - Rep 46 52 55 31 37 39 48 38

IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Liberal 27 38 32 23 25 22 31 24Moderate 40 45 42 36 41 35 41 38Conservative 30 12 19 41 31 40 25 35(Don't know) 3 4 4 1 3 2 3 3(Refuse) 1 1 2 0 0 1 1 0

White IdeologyTotal answering (1012) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551)Liberal 27 37 33 24 26 23 30 24Moderate 41 54 46 35 41 34 43 38Conservative 31 9 19 40 31 40 25 35(Don't know) 2 0 2 1 2 2 1 2(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

Latino IdeologyTotal answering (287) (113) (48) (44) (48) (29) (205) (76)Liberal 30 44 22 20 22 22 34 22Moderate 36 31 40 38 44 31 35 39Conservative 29 21 27 42 29 42 27 34(Don't know) 5 4 10 0 4 3 5 4(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1

Party/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Liberal Dem 25 36 32 20 23 21 29 22Mod/Cons Dem 28 32 31 27 28 26 30 27Lib/Mod Rep 13 14 10 15 14 11 13 13Conservative Rep 21 7 11 28 24 31 16 27Unallocated 12 12 16 10 11 11 12 11

Party Registration/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Liberal Dem 20 25 24 17 19 19 22 19Mod/Cons Dem 23 18 21 22 26 27 20 26Lib/Mod Rep 12 7 12 13 14 12 11 13Conservative Rep 19 6 10 25 21 27 14 24Unallocated 26 45 33 23 20 15 33 18

Page 353

Total AGE

Page 354: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over 18-29 30-4950 and

over 18-4950 and

over

Latino Party IDTotal answering (287) (2) (2) (0) (2) (0) (4) (2) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Strong Democrat 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 24 39 22 39Weak Democrat 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 28 19 29 19Lean Democrat 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 12 7 16 7Independent 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 14 6 9 6Lean Republican 6 0 0 0 71 0 0 71 8 2 11 5 11Weak Republican 9 0 100 0 29 0 55 29 8 11 9 9 9Strong Republican 6 100 0 0 0 0 45 0 4 7 8 6 8(Don't know/Refused) 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 1 3 12-3-2 Democrat 54 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 52 58 52 58Independent 29 0 0 0 71 0 0 71 33 28 24 31 24Republican 15 100 100 0 29 0 100 29 12 18 17 15 172-3-2 Dem - Rep 38 -100 -100 0 -29 0 -100 -29 40 34 41 37 413-1-3 Democrat 67 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 72 64 65 68 65Independent 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 14 6 9 6Republican 22 100 100 0 100 0 100 100 20 20 27 20 273-1-3 Dem - Rep 46 -100 -100 0 -100 0 -100 -100 52 44 38 48 38

IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Liberal 27 37 33 24 26 23 30 24 44 21 22 34 22Moderate 40 54 46 35 41 34 43 38 31 39 39 35 39Conservative 30 9 19 40 31 40 25 35 21 34 34 27 34(Don't know) 3 0 2 1 2 2 1 2 4 5 4 5 4(Refuse) 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1

White IdeologyTotal answering (1012) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (2) (2) (2) (4) (2)Liberal 27 37 33 24 26 23 30 24 0 0 29 0 29Moderate 41 54 46 35 41 34 43 38 0 0 71 0 71Conservative 31 9 19 40 31 40 25 35 100 100 0 100 0(Don't know) 2 0 2 1 2 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Latino IdeologyTotal answering (287) (2) (2) (0) (2) (0) (4) (2) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Liberal 30 0 0 0 29 0 0 29 44 21 22 34 22Moderate 36 0 0 0 71 0 0 71 31 39 39 35 39Conservative 29 100 100 0 0 0 100 0 21 34 34 27 34(Don't know) 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 5 4 5 4(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1

Party/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Liberal Dem 25 37 33 23 24 22 30 23 39 17 18 29 18Mod/Cons Dem 28 30 30 19 25 22 25 24 30 43 44 36 44Lib/Mod Rep 13 17 10 13 16 12 13 14 10 10 12 10 12Conservative Rep 21 9 15 36 26 34 23 30 9 10 15 9 15Unallocated 12 7 12 9 9 10 9 10 11 20 11 15 11

Party Registration/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Liberal Dem 20 22 26 18 18 19 22 19 29 15 18 23 18Mod/Cons Dem 23 10 19 15 24 23 15 24 27 35 39 31 39Lib/Mod Rep 12 5 16 13 16 13 12 15 9 7 12 8 12Conservative Rep 19 7 14 30 23 30 19 26 8 14 15 11 15Unallocated 26 55 24 25 19 15 32 17 28 28 16 28 16

Page 354

Total WHT AGE LAT AGE

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Young Women

Young Men

Older Women

Older Men

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Latino Party IDTotal answering (287) (114) (92) (43) (34) (101) (116) (44) (25) (217) (68)Strong Democrat 27 26 18 41 37 31 27 25 21 29 23Weak Democrat 26 31 27 20 17 32 24 22 24 28 22Lean Democrat 14 15 18 7 8 11 16 16 11 14 14Independent 8 8 11 4 9 7 7 11 13 7 12Lean Republican 6 5 5 10 12 4 8 8 6 6 7Weak Republican 9 5 14 9 9 4 10 12 18 7 14Strong Republican 6 5 6 7 8 6 5 8 7 6 7(Don't know/Refused) 3 5 0 2 0 4 2 0 0 3 02-3-2 Democrat 54 57 45 61 54 63 51 46 45 56 46Independent 29 28 34 20 29 22 31 35 31 27 33Republican 15 10 20 17 17 11 16 19 24 13 212-3-2 Dem - Rep 38 47 25 44 38 52 35 27 21 43 253-1-3 Democrat 67 72 64 68 62 74 67 62 56 70 60Independent 8 8 11 4 9 7 7 11 13 7 12Republican 22 15 26 26 28 15 23 27 31 19 293-1-3 Dem - Rep 46 57 38 41 34 59 44 34 26 51 31

IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Liberal 27 29 32 26 21 19 28 27 33 25 29Moderate 40 43 38 36 40 33 39 41 44 37 42Conservative 30 24 26 35 34 41 28 30 22 33 27(Don't know) 3 2 4 2 3 7 3 2 1 4 1(Refuse) 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0

White IdeologyTotal answering (1012) (217) (204) (294) (257) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575)Liberal 27 28 33 28 20 17 23 27 36 21 31Moderate 41 48 38 34 42 32 43 42 41 39 42Conservative 31 24 27 36 34 47 33 30 22 37 27(Don't know) 2 0 2 1 2 4 1 1 1 2 1(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0

Latino IdeologyTotal answering (287) (114) (92) (43) (34) (101) (116) (44) (25) (217) (68)Liberal 30 31 37 20 24 22 41 19 33 32 24Moderate 36 40 28 46 30 33 33 45 41 33 43Conservative 29 25 30 29 41 37 23 31 26 29 29(Don't know) 5 5 5 3 4 8 3 5 0 5 3(Refuse) 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0

Party/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Liberal Dem 25 28 30 24 20 16 26 25 31 23 28Mod/Cons Dem 28 35 24 28 25 39 25 27 27 30 27Lib/Mod Rep 13 11 14 12 14 11 13 13 13 12 13Conservative Rep 21 15 17 27 27 22 22 23 19 22 21Unallocated 12 11 14 8 14 12 14 11 10 13 11

Party Registration/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Liberal Dem 20 22 22 20 17 16 20 18 24 19 21Mod/Cons Dem 23 24 16 28 25 34 19 22 24 24 23Lib/Mod Rep 12 10 11 12 14 6 14 11 15 11 13Conservative Rep 19 12 15 23 24 19 19 20 14 19 18Unallocated 26 31 36 16 20 24 28 28 23 26 26

Page 355

Total GENDER/AGE EDUCATION

Page 356: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Non College College

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Latino Party IDTotal answering (287) (0) (3) (2) (1) (3) (3) (217) (68) (95) (31) (122) (37)Strong Democrat 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 29 23 27 14 30 31Weak Democrat 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 28 22 25 23 30 22Lean Democrat 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 14 17 8 11 19Independent 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 12 9 16 6 8Lean Republican 6 0 51 0 0 51 0 6 7 6 8 6 7Weak Republican 9 0 0 100 100 0 100 7 14 10 22 6 7Strong Republican 6 0 49 0 0 49 0 6 7 6 8 6 6(Don't know/Refused) 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 6 02-3-2 Democrat 54 0 0 0 0 0 0 56 46 52 37 60 53Independent 29 0 51 0 0 51 0 27 33 32 32 23 34Republican 15 0 49 100 100 49 100 13 21 16 30 11 132-3-2 Dem - Rep 38 0 -49 -100 -100 -49 -100 43 25 36 7 49 393-1-3 Democrat 67 0 0 0 0 0 0 70 60 69 46 71 72Independent 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 12 9 16 6 8Republican 22 0 100 100 100 100 100 19 29 22 39 17 203-1-3 Dem - Rep 46 0 -100 -100 -100 -100 -100 51 31 47 7 54 52

IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Liberal 27 17 23 27 36 21 31 32 24 27 27 23 32Moderate 40 32 43 42 41 39 42 33 43 37 42 37 43Conservative 30 47 33 30 22 37 27 29 29 31 29 35 25(Don't know) 3 4 1 1 1 2 1 5 3 5 2 3 1(Refuse) 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 0

White IdeologyTotal answering (1012) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (3) (3) (200) (278) (232) (297)Liberal 27 17 23 27 36 21 31 0 26 22 28 19 33Moderate 41 32 43 42 41 39 42 51 0 40 41 39 42Conservative 31 47 33 30 22 37 27 49 74 33 29 41 24(Don't know) 2 4 1 1 1 2 1 0 0 4 1 1 1(Refuse) 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0

Latino IdeologyTotal answering (287) (0) (3) (2) (1) (3) (3) (217) (68) (95) (31) (122) (37)Liberal 30 0 0 0 100 0 26 32 24 37 22 28 26Moderate 36 0 51 0 0 51 0 33 43 28 32 37 53Conservative 29 0 49 100 0 49 74 29 29 31 39 28 21(Don't know) 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 4 8 6 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Party/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Liberal Dem 25 16 21 26 34 19 30 28 19 24 26 21 30Mod/Cons Dem 28 28 25 24 24 26 24 39 38 25 24 34 29Lib/Mod Rep 13 13 14 13 13 14 13 10 12 14 14 11 12Conservative Rep 21 36 29 26 19 31 23 9 17 21 23 22 20Unallocated 12 7 11 11 10 9 10 14 15 16 13 11 9

Party Registration/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Liberal Dem 20 16 16 19 26 16 22 24 12 19 18 19 23Mod/Cons Dem 23 21 18 21 22 19 22 34 29 21 21 27 25Lib/Mod Rep 12 9 16 12 16 14 14 8 12 12 13 11 12Conservative Rep 19 31 25 23 15 27 20 10 19 19 20 19 16Unallocated 26 22 26 25 21 25 23 24 28 29 27 24 24

Page 356

GENDER/EDUCTotal WHT EDUC LAT EDUC

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Latino Party IDTotal answering (287) (0) (2) (3) (1) (157) (48) (56) (20) (2) (2) (2) (1)Strong Democrat 27 0 0 0 0 24 19 40 36 0 0 0 0Weak Democrat 26 0 0 0 0 29 29 24 6 0 0 0 0Lean Democrat 14 0 0 0 0 16 18 7 5 0 0 0 0Independent 8 0 0 0 0 8 13 5 10 0 0 0 0Lean Republican 6 0 0 51 0 5 5 10 14 0 0 100 0Weak Republican 9 0 100 0 100 8 11 6 19 0 100 0 100Strong Republican 6 0 0 49 0 6 6 7 10 100 0 0 0(Don't know/Refused) 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 2 0 0 0 0 02-3-2 Democrat 54 0 0 0 0 53 48 64 42 0 0 0 0Independent 29 0 0 51 0 29 35 22 29 0 0 100 0Republican 15 0 100 49 100 14 17 13 29 100 100 0 1002-3-2 Dem - Rep 38 0 -100 -49 -100 39 31 52 13 -100 -100 0 -1003-1-3 Democrat 67 0 0 0 0 69 66 71 47 0 0 0 0Independent 8 0 0 0 0 8 13 5 10 0 0 0 0Republican 22 0 100 100 100 19 22 22 43 100 100 100 1003-1-3 Dem - Rep 46 0 -100 -100 -100 50 44 49 4 -100 -100 -100 -100

IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Liberal 27 22 28 19 33 31 31 19 29 25 34 18 29Moderate 40 40 41 39 42 37 44 37 39 45 42 36 40Conservative 30 33 29 41 24 26 24 40 30 28 24 43 29(Don't know) 3 4 1 1 1 5 1 3 2 2 0 2 2(Refuse) 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0

White IdeologyTotal answering (1012) (200) (278) (232) (297) (172) (248) (239) (309) (172) (248) (239) (309)Liberal 27 22 28 19 33 25 34 18 29 25 34 18 29Moderate 41 40 41 39 42 45 42 36 40 45 42 36 40Conservative 31 33 29 41 24 28 24 43 29 28 24 43 29(Don't know) 2 4 1 1 1 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 2(Refuse) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0

Latino IdeologyTotal answering (287) (0) (2) (3) (1) (157) (48) (56) (20) (2) (2) (2) (1)Liberal 30 0 0 0 100 37 23 20 28 0 0 0 100Moderate 36 0 0 51 0 30 48 42 31 0 0 100 0Conservative 29 0 100 49 0 28 26 34 37 100 100 0 0(Don't know) 5 0 0 0 0 5 3 3 5 0 0 0 0(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

Party/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Liberal Dem 25 20 28 18 32 28 30 17 27 23 34 17 28Mod/Cons Dem 28 20 21 30 27 30 30 30 24 27 25 24 23Lib/Mod Rep 13 15 16 13 10 12 13 13 13 14 12 15 13Conservative Rep 21 30 24 33 21 15 17 29 25 27 20 35 26Unallocated 12 15 11 5 10 14 10 11 11 9 9 9 10

Party Registration/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Liberal Dem 20 16 19 16 25 23 21 15 22 19 24 15 22Mod/Cons Dem 23 17 21 21 22 21 20 28 25 12 18 24 24Lib/Mod Rep 12 15 15 13 13 9 12 14 13 11 12 17 14Conservative Rep 19 24 22 29 17 14 13 25 23 22 16 29 23Unallocated 26 28 23 22 23 33 34 18 18 36 30 16 18

Page 357

Total WHT GEN/EDUC AGE/EDUC WHT AGE/EDUC

Page 358: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

MemberHhold

memberNo

memberTotal Union Member

Hhold member

No member

Total Union Member

No member

Total Union

Latino Party IDTotal answering (287) (20) (19) (225) (56) (0) (0) (5) (1) (20) (220) (56)Strong Democrat 27 14 20 29 19 0 0 0 0 14 30 19Weak Democrat 26 22 18 27 25 0 0 0 0 22 27 26Lean Democrat 14 24 31 12 23 0 0 0 0 24 12 23Independent 8 10 4 9 7 0 0 0 0 10 9 7Lean Republican 6 11 13 6 10 0 0 32 0 11 5 10Weak Republican 9 9 12 9 11 0 0 37 100 9 8 10Strong Republican 6 10 2 6 6 0 0 31 0 10 6 6(Don't know/Refused) 3 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 02-3-2 Democrat 54 36 38 56 44 0 0 0 0 36 57 45Independent 29 45 48 26 39 0 0 32 0 45 26 40Republican 15 19 14 15 16 0 0 68 100 19 14 152-3-2 Dem - Rep 38 17 24 41 28 0 0 -68 -100 17 43 293-1-3 Democrat 67 60 69 68 67 0 0 0 0 60 69 68Independent 8 10 4 9 7 0 0 0 0 10 9 7Republican 22 30 27 21 26 0 0 100 100 30 19 253-1-3 Dem - Rep 46 30 42 46 41 0 0 -100 -100 30 50 42

IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Liberal 27 31 25 27 27 36 22 25 30 20 30 22Moderate 40 35 39 41 37 32 46 42 36 40 38 39Conservative 30 29 29 30 30 28 30 31 30 31 27 29(Don't know) 3 2 8 2 4 2 2 1 3 2 4 7(Refuse) 1 3 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 6 1 3

White IdeologyTotal answering (1012) (121) (56) (787) (215) (121) (56) (787) (215) (0) (0) (0)Liberal 27 36 22 25 30 36 22 25 30 0 0 0Moderate 41 32 46 42 36 32 46 42 36 0 0 0Conservative 31 28 30 31 30 28 30 31 30 0 0 0(Don't know) 2 2 2 1 3 2 2 1 3 0 0 0(Refuse) 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0

Latino IdeologyTotal answering (287) (20) (19) (225) (56) (0) (0) (5) (1) (20) (220) (56)Liberal 30 31 39 31 30 0 0 0 100 31 32 29Moderate 36 44 32 34 42 0 0 32 0 44 34 43Conservative 29 25 17 31 23 0 0 68 0 25 30 23(Don't know) 5 0 11 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 4 5(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Party/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Liberal Dem 25 31 22 25 26 36 18 24 29 19 26 20Mod/Cons Dem 28 28 27 29 29 25 30 25 26 35 37 34Lib/Mod Rep 13 9 15 13 11 9 20 14 12 10 12 9Conservative Rep 21 20 22 22 21 23 25 27 24 14 11 14Unallocated 12 11 14 11 13 6 7 10 8 23 14 22

Party Registration/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Liberal Dem 20 25 13 20 19 31 7 19 21 13 22 16Mod/Cons Dem 23 27 16 23 25 24 11 21 21 34 29 33Lib/Mod Rep 12 12 15 12 13 12 20 14 15 11 8 10Conservative Rep 19 16 18 19 18 18 21 23 20 13 9 14Unallocated 26 19 37 26 25 15 41 24 23 29 31 27

Page 358

NONWT UNIONTotal UNION WHT UNION

Page 359: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Married Single

Sep Divor ced

Wid owed

Sep Div Wid

Unmarr ied

Married Women

Unmarr ied

WomenMarried

MenUnmarr ied Men

Voted in person

Voted by mail

Latino Party IDTotal answering (287) (141) (112) (20) (10) (30) (142) (79) (81) (62) (62) (147) (77)Strong Democrat 27 29 25 24 44 31 26 32 29 25 23 30 30Weak Democrat 26 25 32 11 21 14 29 26 30 23 27 29 19Lean Democrat 14 9 16 22 17 20 17 12 13 5 23 11 14Independent 8 12 5 6 0 4 5 10 3 14 7 8 10Lean Republican 6 7 5 10 12 11 6 4 8 10 4 7 9Weak Republican 9 11 7 11 6 10 8 10 2 12 14 9 10Strong Republican 6 6 5 13 0 9 6 3 9 11 2 4 8(Don't know/Refused) 3 2 3 2 0 2 3 4 5 0 0 1 02-3-2 Democrat 54 53 58 35 65 45 55 57 59 48 50 60 48Independent 29 27 27 39 29 35 29 26 25 29 34 26 33Republican 15 17 12 24 6 18 14 13 11 23 17 13 182-3-2 Dem - Rep 38 36 45 11 59 26 41 45 48 26 33 46 303-1-3 Democrat 67 62 74 57 82 65 72 70 72 53 72 71 62Independent 8 12 5 6 0 4 5 10 3 14 7 8 10Republican 22 24 17 35 18 29 20 17 20 33 21 20 283-1-3 Dem - Rep 46 39 57 23 63 36 52 53 53 20 52 50 34

IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Liberal 27 22 36 36 25 32 34 24 31 19 38 29 25Moderate 40 40 42 34 37 35 39 38 42 42 36 40 39Conservative 30 36 18 25 32 28 21 37 22 36 21 29 33(Don't know) 3 2 4 5 5 5 4 1 4 3 6 2 2(Refuse) 1 0 1 0 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1

White IdeologyTotal answering (1012) (610) (218) (105) (69) (174) (392) (300) (224) (310) (168) (458) (461)Liberal 27 23 32 38 27 33 32 26 28 19 38 28 25Moderate 41 40 48 32 37 34 42 36 46 44 36 41 40Conservative 31 36 19 28 30 29 23 38 24 35 22 30 33(Don't know) 2 1 2 3 5 3 2 0 2 2 3 1 2(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

Latino IdeologyTotal answering (287) (141) (112) (20) (10) (30) (142) (79) (81) (62) (62) (147) (77)Liberal 30 19 45 25 25 25 40 20 35 18 48 27 30Moderate 36 40 31 37 34 36 32 44 38 34 24 37 34Conservative 29 38 20 18 35 23 20 33 20 46 21 31 34(Don't know) 5 3 5 21 0 14 7 3 6 2 8 5 1(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 6 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0

Party/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Liberal Dem 25 21 33 33 21 28 31 22 29 19 34 28 23Mod/Cons Dem 28 28 30 24 30 27 29 31 33 25 24 31 25Lib/Mod Rep 13 14 11 14 12 13 12 12 11 15 13 10 15Conservative Rep 21 26 12 20 21 20 15 26 15 26 15 20 26Unallocated 12 11 13 9 15 11 13 8 12 15 13 11 12

Party Registration/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Liberal Dem 20 17 24 28 16 24 24 18 24 16 23 22 18Mod/Cons Dem 23 26 19 18 31 23 21 28 24 23 17 24 23Lib/Mod Rep 12 14 8 14 14 14 10 13 9 14 11 11 14Conservative Rep 19 23 10 13 18 15 12 23 11 24 13 17 23Unallocated 26 21 39 27 21 24 34 18 31 23 37 25 22

Page 359

Total MARITAL MARITAL/GENDER 2008

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Voted in person

Voted by mail A B Cell Landline Base Latino

Latino Party IDTotal answering (287) (82) (42) (142) (146) (15) (272) (45) (242)Strong Democrat 27 32 31 29 25 21 28 19 29Weak Democrat 26 20 17 25 27 26 26 15 28Lean Democrat 14 17 13 14 14 18 14 8 15Independent 8 3 15 9 8 7 8 12 8Lean Republican 6 9 7 6 7 8 6 14 5Weak Republican 9 10 9 10 9 5 9 16 8Strong Republican 6 7 8 6 6 15 6 16 4(Don't know/Refused) 3 2 0 2 3 0 3 0 32-3-2 Democrat 54 52 48 55 52 47 54 35 57Independent 29 29 35 28 30 32 28 34 28Republican 15 18 17 16 15 20 15 31 122-3-2 Dem - Rep 38 34 31 39 38 27 39 3 453-1-3 Democrat 67 69 61 68 67 65 68 43 72Independent 8 3 15 9 8 7 8 12 8Republican 22 26 24 21 22 28 21 45 173-1-3 Dem - Rep 46 42 37 47 45 37 46 -2 55

IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Liberal 27 26 25 27 27 38 25 26 28Moderate 40 39 37 41 38 43 39 41 36Conservative 30 32 35 29 31 18 31 30 29(Don't know) 3 2 3 2 3 0 3 2 6(Refuse) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0

White IdeologyTotal answering (1012) (380) (316) (504) (508) (135) (877) (957) (55)Liberal 27 27 26 26 27 40 24 27 19Moderate 41 39 37 43 39 43 40 41 41Conservative 31 32 35 29 33 17 33 31 38(Don't know) 2 2 2 2 2 0 2 2 1(Refuse) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Latino IdeologyTotal answering (287) (82) (42) (142) (146) (15) (272) (45) (242)Liberal 30 32 22 32 28 31 30 21 32Moderate 36 33 37 36 36 34 36 40 35Conservative 29 32 39 29 29 35 29 37 28(Don't know) 5 2 2 4 6 0 5 0 6(Refuse) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0

Party/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Liberal Dem 25 25 23 25 25 37 23 25 24Mod/Cons Dem 28 31 23 28 29 29 28 25 39Lib/Mod Rep 13 11 15 13 13 10 13 13 11Conservative Rep 21 23 28 21 21 15 22 24 11Unallocated 12 11 11 12 12 9 13 11 15

Party Registration/IdeologyTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Liberal Dem 20 19 17 20 20 28 19 19 21Mod/Cons Dem 23 28 21 23 25 13 25 21 33Lib/Mod Rep 12 12 16 12 12 6 13 13 10Conservative Rep 19 19 25 18 19 14 19 21 10Unallocated 26 22 20 28 25 38 25 26 26

Page 360

PHONE SAMPLETotal 2006 SPLIT

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LIKELY

Likely Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS

Reg Rep Not ID Rep

Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Mod erate

Conser vative

RegionTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Los Angeles County 25 20 29 26 19 28 19 26 21 29 29 28 17Southern CA 28 27 23 29 35 26 34 27 34 34 22 28 34Bay Area 21 24 24 21 14 23 15 24 16 14 25 21 17Sacramento/North 10 12 9 10 13 7 14 11 13 6 10 9 12Coast/Central 7 7 8 5 7 8 6 4 4 6 7 6 7Central Valley 9 9 7 9 12 8 11 8 11 11 6 8 13

Inland CoastalTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Coastal 70 70 76 70 59 75 59 74 59 70 77 71 61Inland 30 30 24 30 41 25 41 26 41 30 23 29 39

SplitTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)A 51 48 51 48 51 50 50 52 45 49 50 53 48B 49 52 49 52 49 50 50 48 55 51 50 47 52

Phone TypeTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Cell 12 8 13 14 8 11 8 19 5 10 17 13 7Landline 88 92 87 86 92 89 92 81 95 90 83 87 93

Sample TypeTotal answering (1511) (838) (667) (434) (387) (685) (476) (295) (155) (146) (405) (599) (450)Base 78 84 73 80 87 72 85 79 78 70 77 80 79Latino 22 16 27 20 13 28 15 21 22 30 23 20 21

Page 361

IDEOLOGYTotal PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated

Liberal Dem

Mod Cons Dem

Lib Mod Rep

Conser vative Rep

Unalloc ated Right Wrong

RegionTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Los Angeles County 25 30 27 25 15 28 28 27 28 15 27 26 24Southern CA 28 21 26 39 32 30 23 28 35 33 25 35 27Bay Area 21 25 26 11 17 16 26 21 13 16 24 13 22Sacramento/North 10 10 7 12 14 9 8 7 12 15 11 7 11Coast/Central 7 7 7 4 8 5 8 7 4 8 4 10 6Central Valley 9 6 7 8 14 11 7 9 8 13 9 9 9

Inland CoastalTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Coastal 70 79 75 59 59 68 78 72 61 59 73 67 69Inland 30 21 25 41 41 32 22 28 39 41 27 33 31

SplitTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)A 51 51 50 51 51 50 51 48 49 50 53 47 51B 49 49 50 49 49 50 49 52 51 50 47 53 49

Phone TypeTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Cell 12 18 12 9 8 9 17 7 6 9 17 17 11Landline 88 82 88 91 92 91 83 93 94 91 83 83 89

Sample TypeTotal answering (1511) (379) (429) (194) (324) (186) (298) (355) (182) (280) (395) (147) (1238)Base 78 79 70 81 89 73 77 70 82 88 78 60 81Latino 22 21 30 19 11 27 23 30 18 12 22 40 19

Page 362

Total PTY/IDEO PTYREG/IDEO STATE DIR

Page 363: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

10 8-10 6-10 0-5 0-7 BrownWhit man Und Ref

RegionTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Los Angeles County 25 19 24 24 29 27 26 23 30Southern CA 28 31 29 29 26 27 25 31 32Bay Area 21 22 21 22 18 21 27 16 16Sacramento/North 10 10 10 9 13 11 9 12 8Coast/Central 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 6Central Valley 9 11 10 9 8 8 7 11 9

Inland CoastalTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Coastal 70 66 68 69 72 72 75 65 68Inland 30 34 32 31 28 28 25 35 32

SplitTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)A 51 49 51 51 49 50 48 54 54B 49 51 49 49 51 50 52 46 46

Phone TypeTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Cell 12 8 9 12 12 15 13 12 6Landline 88 92 91 88 88 85 87 88 94

Sample TypeTotal answering (1511) (462) (783) (1076) (426) (719) (693) (631) (157)Base 78 81 78 78 80 78 76 83 62Latino 22 19 22 22 20 22 24 17 38

Page 363

Total ENTHUSIASM GOV VOTE

Page 364: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

RegionTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Los Angeles County 25 25 31 23 22 34 32 21 20 27 23 33 20 29Southern CA 28 22 27 32 30 27 25 32 33 23 31 26 33 28Bay Area 21 29 26 19 25 16 19 14 16 28 21 17 15 19Sacramento/North 10 9 6 9 8 12 6 10 13 9 9 10 12 9Coast/Central 7 7 7 6 4 4 7 9 7 7 5 5 7 5Central Valley 9 7 3 11 11 6 12 14 11 6 11 9 12 9

Inland CoastalTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Coastal 70 76 83 69 61 71 75 61 62 78 66 73 62 70Inland 30 24 17 31 39 29 25 39 38 22 34 27 38 30

SplitTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)A 51 47 56 45 39 57 53 55 50 49 42 55 52 51B 49 53 44 55 61 43 47 45 50 51 58 45 48 49

Phone TypeTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Cell 12 12 14 10 18 13 13 12 10 13 14 13 10 13Landline 88 88 86 90 82 87 87 88 90 87 86 87 90 87

Sample TypeTotal answering (1511) (394) (144) (91) (65) (153) (117) (147) (401) (538) (156) (270) (547) (426)Base 78 83 69 73 60 68 73 75 87 79 67 70 84 69Latino 22 17 31 27 40 32 27 25 13 21 33 30 16 31

Page 364

Total BROWN VCS

Page 365: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

RegionTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Los Angeles County 25 19 22 32 32 26 27 30 26 20 32 26 27 28Southern CA 28 34 27 23 30 31 31 29 22 32 26 31 24 29Bay Area 21 16 14 21 18 20 18 23 27 15 20 19 26 19Sacramento/North 10 13 12 5 14 8 10 7 10 13 9 9 9 9Coast/Central 7 7 9 8 4 5 6 6 7 8 6 5 6 5Central Valley 9 11 15 11 2 11 9 6 8 12 7 10 7 9

Inland CoastalTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Coastal 70 61 61 79 74 65 70 78 75 61 77 67 76 71Inland 30 39 39 21 26 35 30 22 25 39 23 33 24 29

SplitTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)A 51 50 57 56 62 49 45 55 47 52 59 47 49 51B 49 50 43 44 38 51 55 45 53 48 41 53 51 49

Phone TypeTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Cell 12 9 12 18 16 14 10 12 13 10 17 12 12 14Landline 88 91 88 82 84 86 90 88 87 90 83 88 88 86

Sample TypeTotal answering (1511) (366) (115) (76) (75) (132) (125) (192) (431) (481) (150) (257) (623) (407)Base 78 88 83 73 72 61 73 66 83 87 73 67 78 69Latino 22 12 17 27 28 39 27 34 17 13 27 33 22 31

Page 365

Total WHITMAN VCS

Page 366: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Brown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

betterBrown better

Whit man

better

Govt back

groundBiz back ground

Brown better

Whit man

better Boxer Fiorina DK/ Ref

RegionTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Los Angeles County 25 26 21 25 20 24 23 25 26 23 24 27 22 28Southern CA 28 24 32 25 31 28 30 27 30 26 30 24 33 32Bay Area 21 27 16 26 18 25 17 25 16 27 17 27 14 12Sacramento/North 10 10 12 9 12 9 12 11 10 10 11 8 14 9Coast/Central 7 6 8 7 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5Central Valley 9 7 11 8 12 7 12 7 11 7 11 6 12 15

Inland CoastalTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Coastal 70 75 64 75 63 74 64 73 66 72 67 77 61 63Inland 30 25 36 25 37 26 36 27 34 28 33 23 39 37

SplitTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)A 51 49 54 48 55 49 52 51 50 51 52 50 51 53B 49 51 46 52 45 51 48 49 50 49 48 50 49 47

Phone TypeTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Cell 12 13 12 12 13 10 13 12 12 11 13 14 10 8Landline 88 87 88 88 87 90 87 88 88 89 87 86 90 92

Sample TypeTotal answering (1511) (679) (498) (540) (565) (511) (678) (721) (695) (501) (677) (797) (571) (132)Base 78 78 84 77 83 75 84 81 76 77 85 75 87 60Latino 22 22 16 23 17 25 16 19 24 23 15 25 13 40

Page 366

ENERGY BCKGRND ECONOMY SEN VOTETotal UNDERSTAND CLEAR PLAN

Page 367: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Vuln erable

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

RegionTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Los Angeles County 25 26 28 32 27 30 19 28 21 26 30 25 22 28Southern CA 28 24 20 29 27 33 42 27 32 23 28 38 31 32Bay Area 21 31 26 16 27 7 9 18 14 30 22 8 15 16Sacramento/North 10 9 8 6 7 10 11 12 14 8 7 10 14 8Coast/Central 7 6 12 7 4 6 5 9 5 8 6 5 6 6Central Valley 9 4 6 9 8 14 14 6 14 5 8 14 12 11

Inland CoastalTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Coastal 70 79 78 73 74 64 62 73 58 79 74 63 61 69Inland 30 21 22 27 26 36 38 27 42 21 26 37 39 31

SplitTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)A 51 48 58 45 52 52 42 54 52 51 48 47 52 48B 49 52 42 55 48 48 58 46 48 49 52 53 48 52

Phone TypeTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Cell 12 12 11 14 24 10 10 16 9 12 19 10 10 15Landline 88 88 89 86 76 90 90 84 91 88 81 90 90 85

Sample TypeTotal answering (1511) (393) (167) (124) (112) (89) (78) (105) (442) (561) (237) (167) (547) (404)Base 78 85 72 62 59 61 76 74 89 81 60 68 86 63Latino 22 15 28 38 41 39 24 26 11 19 40 32 14 37

Page 367

Total BOXER VCS

Page 368: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

LoyalistSupp orter

Cond itional

Winn able

In Reach

Periph eral

Unreach able

Loyalist Supp orter

Cond Vuln

Winn In Reach

Periph Unreach

ablePersua dable

RegionTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Los Angeles County 25 20 30 23 28 29 28 26 21 24 29 27 28Southern CA 28 32 26 39 28 30 23 24 31 40 29 23 31Bay Area 21 15 16 12 20 18 22 31 15 8 19 28 17Sacramento/North 10 14 13 10 8 6 8 9 14 12 7 8 8Coast/Central 7 5 8 4 4 7 12 6 6 6 5 8 5Central Valley 9 14 6 12 12 10 7 5 12 9 11 6 11

Inland CoastalTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Coastal 70 57 74 66 69 73 75 79 60 68 70 77 70Inland 30 43 26 34 31 27 25 21 40 32 30 23 30

SplitTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)A 51 51 52 41 51 46 58 48 51 48 49 51 49B 49 49 48 59 49 54 42 52 49 52 51 49 51

Phone TypeTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Cell 12 8 19 10 18 13 11 12 10 11 16 12 15Landline 88 92 81 90 82 87 89 88 90 89 84 88 85

Sample TypeTotal answering (1511) (416) (74) (56) (182) (151) (195) (411) (490) (81) (333) (606) (415)Base 78 90 81 82 60 62 69 85 88 78 61 80 64Latino 22 10 19 18 40 38 31 15 12 22 39 20 36

Page 368

Total FIORINA VCS

Page 369: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Support Obama

Oppose Obama

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better

Boxer better

Fiorina better Favor Oppose

Impor tant

Not Impor tant

RegionTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Los Angeles County 25 29 18 27 21 27 19 27 23 24 27 27 21Southern CA 28 24 36 24 33 24 33 23 33 28 27 28 29Bay Area 21 23 15 27 16 28 16 29 16 22 20 22 19Sacramento/North 10 9 13 8 12 8 14 7 12 9 10 9 13Coast/Central 7 7 5 8 5 7 5 8 6 6 7 7 5Central Valley 9 7 13 6 13 6 12 7 10 10 9 8 12

Inland CoastalTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Coastal 70 75 59 77 60 78 60 78 62 68 72 72 63Inland 30 25 41 23 40 22 40 22 38 32 28 28 37

SplitTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)A 51 49 55 52 49 51 49 51 50 51 51 51 50B 49 51 45 48 51 49 51 49 50 49 49 49 50

Phone TypeTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Cell 12 15 8 13 9 13 9 13 10 15 13 12 11Landline 88 85 92 87 91 87 91 87 90 85 87 88 89

Sample TypeTotal answering (1511) (887) (452) (559) (530) (646) (445) (568) (477) (588) (579) (1130) (370)Base 78 74 85 75 85 77 85 77 85 80 80 75 87Latino 22 26 15 25 15 23 15 23 15 20 20 25 13

Page 369

SHARE VALUES JOBS ECON PROP 23 GW IMPTTotal SENTYPE CHANGE

Page 370: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

White Black Latino Asian Men Women Men Women Men Women

RegionTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Los Angeles County 25 23 54 30 22 28 23 25 20 30 29Southern CA 28 25 14 41 30 27 29 23 28 44 38Bay Area 21 24 16 9 28 21 21 25 23 8 10Sacramento/North 10 13 7 1 9 11 10 14 13 1 1Coast/Central 7 7 3 6 4 6 7 6 8 5 6Central Valley 9 8 6 13 7 8 10 7 9 11 15

Inland CoastalTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Coastal 70 71 77 62 80 71 68 72 69 63 61Inland 30 29 23 38 20 29 32 28 31 37 39

SplitTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)A 51 50 50 49 62 54 47 54 46 55 45B 49 50 50 51 38 46 53 46 54 45 55

Phone TypeTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Cell 12 13 12 5 24 13 11 15 12 4 6Landline 88 87 88 95 76 87 89 85 88 96 94

Sample TypeTotal answering (1511) (1012) (76) (287) (68) (710) (801) (479) (533) (127) (160)Base 78 95 98 16 96 79 77 96 93 14 17Latino 22 5 2 84 4 21 23 4 7 86 83

Page 370

WHT GEN LAT GENTotal RACE GENDER

Page 371: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over

RegionTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Los Angeles County 25 30 28 26 21 23 28 22Southern CA 28 33 30 26 26 28 29 27Bay Area 21 17 18 22 24 21 19 23Sacramento/North 10 6 10 7 14 12 7 13Coast/Central 7 6 6 9 7 6 7 6Central Valley 9 8 9 10 8 11 9 9

Inland CoastalTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Coastal 70 71 72 69 69 68 71 69Inland 30 29 28 31 31 32 29 31

SplitTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)A 51 50 53 55 48 50 53 49B 49 50 47 45 52 50 47 51

Phone TypeTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Cell 12 30 21 9 5 2 20 4Landline 88 70 79 91 95 98 80 96

Sample TypeTotal answering (1511) (257) (227) (272) (408) (287) (755) (695)Base 78 55 75 79 85 87 70 86Latino 22 45 25 21 15 13 30 14

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Total AGE

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 Over 64 18-4950 and

over 18-29 30-4950 and

over 18-4950 and

over

RegionTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Los Angeles County 25 23 24 26 21 22 24 21 38 25 21 32 21Southern CA 28 33 27 20 23 26 26 25 37 47 41 41 41Bay Area 21 23 22 23 26 22 23 24 6 9 14 7 14Sacramento/North 10 10 14 9 16 13 11 15 0 1 2 0 2Coast/Central 7 7 6 10 6 7 8 6 4 6 8 5 8Central Valley 9 4 6 12 7 10 8 8 15 12 13 14 13

Inland CoastalTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Coastal 70 74 72 72 70 69 72 69 65 59 60 62 60Inland 30 26 28 28 30 31 28 31 35 41 40 38 40

SplitTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)A 51 54 49 53 48 49 52 48 47 56 44 51 44B 49 46 51 47 52 51 48 52 53 44 56 49 56

Phone TypeTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Cell 12 57 27 8 5 2 26 4 7 7 0 7 0Landline 88 43 73 92 95 98 74 96 93 93 100 93 100

Sample TypeTotal answering (1511) (105) (138) (178) (315) (236) (421) (551) (113) (92) (76) (205) (76)Base 78 96 91 92 95 96 93 96 9 18 24 13 24Latino 22 4 9 8 5 4 7 4 91 82 76 87 76

Page 372

Total WHT AGE LAT AGE

Page 373: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Young Women

Young Men

Older Women

Older Men

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

RegionTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Los Angeles County 25 25 31 21 23 19 27 27 25 24 26Southern CA 28 31 27 27 27 39 28 23 25 32 24Bay Area 21 19 19 22 23 15 15 26 28 15 27Sacramento/North 10 7 8 13 13 8 12 10 9 11 10Coast/Central 7 7 6 7 6 6 7 6 6 7 6Central Valley 9 10 8 11 7 12 11 8 6 11 7

Inland CoastalTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Coastal 70 70 71 67 71 63 65 75 75 65 75Inland 30 30 29 33 29 37 35 25 25 35 25

SplitTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)A 51 51 54 44 54 54 49 53 46 51 50B 49 49 46 56 46 46 51 47 54 49 50

Phone TypeTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Cell 12 18 22 4 4 6 13 13 14 11 13Landline 88 82 78 96 96 94 87 87 86 89 87

Sample TypeTotal answering (1511) (395) (360) (372) (323) (272) (484) (416) (324) (756) (740)Base 78 68 72 86 87 54 73 89 93 66 91Latino 22 32 28 14 13 46 27 11 7 34 9

Page 373

Total GENDER/AGE EDUCATION

Page 374: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

H.S. or less

Post H.S.

4 year grad

Post grad

Non College College

Non College College

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

RegionTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Los Angeles County 25 16 20 28 23 18 26 30 28 28 27 20 26Southern CA 28 33 26 21 25 28 23 43 33 30 24 34 24Bay Area 21 24 18 26 29 20 27 5 21 15 27 16 27Sacramento/North 10 14 16 12 11 16 12 1 2 12 10 10 10Coast/Central 7 5 9 7 6 8 6 6 6 6 6 8 6Central Valley 9 9 11 7 6 10 7 15 10 10 6 12 8

Inland CoastalTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Coastal 70 67 64 76 74 65 75 58 75 65 77 64 74Inland 30 33 36 24 26 35 25 42 25 35 23 36 26

SplitTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)A 51 58 50 52 43 52 48 47 56 53 55 49 45B 49 42 50 48 57 48 52 53 44 47 45 51 55

Phone TypeTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Cell 12 9 17 13 13 14 13 3 12 12 14 9 13Landline 88 91 83 87 87 86 87 97 88 88 86 91 87

Sample TypeTotal answering (1511) (135) (296) (318) (257) (432) (575) (217) (68) (347) (357) (408) (383)Base 78 90 93 96 97 92 97 9 36 68 90 65 91Latino 22 10 7 4 3 8 3 91 64 32 10 35 9

Page 374

GENDER/EDUCTotal WHT EDUC LAT EDUC

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September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Non College

MenCollege

Men

Non College Women

College Women

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

Young Non

CollegeYoung College

Older Non

CollegeOlder

College

RegionTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Los Angeles County 25 23 27 14 25 28 29 19 24 19 28 17 24Southern CA 28 24 22 32 24 34 24 31 23 29 24 29 21Bay Area 21 20 28 20 26 13 25 17 28 19 25 20 28Sacramento/North 10 18 11 14 12 8 7 13 12 14 9 17 13Coast/Central 7 6 6 9 6 7 7 7 6 9 7 7 6Central Valley 9 9 6 11 7 10 8 13 7 10 7 11 7

Inland CoastalTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Coastal 70 65 77 65 73 66 76 63 74 67 76 63 74Inland 30 35 23 35 27 34 24 37 26 33 24 37 26

SplitTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)A 51 57 51 49 45 53 52 49 49 57 49 49 48B 49 43 49 51 55 47 48 51 51 43 51 51 52

Phone TypeTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Cell 12 17 14 11 12 18 23 3 5 31 23 3 5Landline 88 83 86 89 88 82 77 97 95 69 77 97 95

Sample TypeTotal answering (1511) (200) (278) (232) (297) (397) (354) (327) (364) (172) (248) (239) (309)Base 78 94 98 90 96 56 85 77 95 91 94 92 99Latino 22 6 2 10 4 44 15 23 5 9 6 8 1

Page 375

Total WHT GEN/EDUC AGE/EDUC WHT AGE/EDUC

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

MemberHhold

memberNo

memberTotal Union Member

Hhold member

No member

Total Union Member

No member

Total Union

RegionTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Los Angeles County 25 31 29 24 28 27 18 23 23 40 28 39Southern CA 28 23 26 29 27 21 27 25 26 27 36 28Bay Area 21 16 23 21 19 18 28 24 22 13 14 15Sacramento/North 10 11 12 10 10 14 16 13 14 6 4 4Coast/Central 7 9 4 6 7 10 4 6 8 6 6 6Central Valley 9 10 6 10 8 10 7 8 8 9 12 8

Inland CoastalTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Coastal 70 69 68 70 69 64 63 72 66 78 65 76Inland 30 31 32 30 31 36 37 28 34 22 35 24

SplitTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)A 51 53 59 48 57 53 69 47 61 53 52 51B 49 47 41 52 43 47 31 53 39 47 48 49

Phone TypeTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Cell 12 13 9 12 11 14 9 14 11 12 9 11Landline 88 87 91 88 89 86 91 86 89 88 91 89

Sample TypeTotal answering (1511) (177) (88) (1164) (327) (121) (56) (787) (215) (55) (377) (111)Base 78 88 73 78 79 97 92 95 92 68 42 54Latino 22 12 27 22 21 3 8 5 8 32 58 46

Page 376

NONWT UNIONTotal UNION WHT UNION

Page 377: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

September 15-22, 2010 USC/Los Angeles Times Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Married Single

Sep Divor ced

Wid owed

Sep Div Wid

Unmarr ied

Married Women

Unmarr ied

WomenMarried

MenUnmarr ied Men

Voted in person

Voted by mail

RegionTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Los Angeles County 25 21 31 35 23 30 31 19 28 23 35 35 14Southern CA 28 29 28 23 33 27 28 30 28 27 27 27 28Bay Area 21 22 19 21 15 19 19 22 19 22 18 17 27Sacramento/North 10 11 8 8 12 10 9 11 9 12 9 9 13Coast/Central 7 7 6 5 5 5 6 8 6 7 5 6 7Central Valley 9 10 8 8 12 10 8 10 10 9 6 6 12

Inland CoastalTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Coastal 70 67 74 75 63 70 73 66 72 69 75 74 66Inland 30 33 26 25 37 30 27 34 28 31 25 26 34

SplitTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)A 51 48 57 48 48 48 54 44 51 52 57 49 51B 49 52 43 52 52 52 46 56 49 48 43 51 49

Phone TypeTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Cell 12 7 23 15 2 10 19 6 16 8 22 14 8Landline 88 93 77 85 98 90 81 94 84 92 78 86 92

Sample TypeTotal answering (1511) (868) (390) (141) (89) (231) (621) (437) (348) (431) (272) (717) (606)Base 78 82 67 83 84 83 73 79 75 85 71 76 85Latino 22 18 33 17 16 17 27 21 25 15 29 24 15

Page 377

Total MARITAL MARITAL/GENDER 2008

Page 378: Total PARTY ID PARTY REG KEY GRPS IDEOLOGYgraphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/6035_USC-LAT.p… · Voter Dem Ind Rep Dem Rep DTS Reg Rep Not ID Rep Dem Not ID Dem Liberal

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner USC/Los Angeles Times September 15-22, 2010

Voted in person

Voted by mail A B Cell Landline Base Latino

RegionTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Los Angeles County 25 32 13 24 27 33 24 25 26Southern CA 28 26 27 28 28 23 29 23 48Bay Area 21 21 26 21 21 24 20 25 6Sacramento/North 10 10 15 11 10 9 10 13 0Coast/Central 7 5 8 7 6 7 7 6 7Central Valley 9 6 12 9 9 5 10 8 13

Inland CoastalTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Coastal 70 76 65 69 71 77 69 73 59Inland 30 24 35 31 29 23 31 27 41

SplitTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)A 51 52 49 100 0 51 50 50 52B 49 48 51 0 100 49 50 50 48

Phone TypeTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Cell 12 7 3 12 12 100 0 15 0Landline 88 93 97 88 88 0 100 85 100

Sample TypeTotal answering (1511) (541) (398) (764) (747) (181) (1330) (1181) (330)Base 78 82 87 77 79 100 75 100 0Latino 22 18 13 23 21 0 25 0 100

Page 378

PHONE SAMPLETotal 2006 SPLIT