Toronto’s Future Weather Toronto’s Future Weather and Climate Drivers Studyand Climate Drivers Study

Request for Proposal January 16, 2009 Request for Proposal January 16, 2009 Contract Start Date June 11, 2009Contract Start Date June 11, 2009

Completion Anticipated August 30, 2010 Completion Anticipated August 30, 2010

External Work Awarded to SENES Consultants LtdExternal Work Awarded to SENES Consultants LtdBy City of Toronto – Toronto Environment OfficeBy City of Toronto – Toronto Environment Office

At Cost of $250,000At Cost of $250,000

Why We Study?Why We Study?

If climate is changing – we need to know by how If climate is changing – we need to know by how much and how soon, especially in respect to the much and how soon, especially in respect to the extremes of weather.extremes of weather.

IPCC Model outputs (GCM & RCM) do not include IPCC Model outputs (GCM & RCM) do not include Great Lakes adequately AND cannot operate at Great Lakes adequately AND cannot operate at resolution levels much smaller than ½ of Ontario resolution levels much smaller than ½ of Ontario

City needs resolution capable of “seeing” events City needs resolution capable of “seeing” events such as the Finch Avenue Storm (Aug 19, 2005)such as the Finch Avenue Storm (Aug 19, 2005)

Rainfall amounts up to 175 mm recorded in Yonge/Steeles area Rainfall amounts up to 175 mm recorded in Yonge/Steeles area 103 mm recorded in 1 hour at Environment Canada Downsview 103 mm recorded in 1 hour at Environment Canada Downsview

BUT only 41.4 mm at Toronto Pearson, 31.8 mm at Toronto City BUT only 41.4 mm at Toronto Pearson, 31.8 mm at Toronto City Estimated insured losses from August 19 storms: $500MEstimated insured losses from August 19 storms: $500M

Finch Avenue Toronto: August 19, 2005

Rainfall amounts up to 175 mm recorded in Yonge/Steeles area 103 mm recorded in 1 hour at Environment Canada Downsview

BUT only 41.4 mm at Toronto Pearson, 31.8 mm at Toronto City

Estimated insured losses from August 19 storms: $500M

Basic Concepts Behind The StudyBasic Concepts Behind The Study

We want to understand what forces & factors We want to understand what forces & factors “drive” Toronto’s weather – now.“drive” Toronto’s weather – now.

We want to see how these “drivers” change in We want to see how these “drivers” change in future [based on IPCC based (GCM & RCM) future [based on IPCC based (GCM & RCM) model output] model output]

We want to understand what future forces & We want to understand what future forces & factors will “drive” Toronto’s future weather and factors will “drive” Toronto’s future weather and what the weather extremes will be – soon enough what the weather extremes will be – soon enough for us to adapt to such changes ahead of time.for us to adapt to such changes ahead of time.

How We Study? ….. (part 1)How We Study? ….. (part 1)

Run Weather Research Forecast Model (WRF/ FRESH) “to Run Weather Research Forecast Model (WRF/ FRESH) “to match” Toronto’s weather of multiple extremes (2000 – 2009)match” Toronto’s weather of multiple extremes (2000 – 2009)

Identify Toronto’s Cause & Effect (C&E) “Weather Drivers” Identify Toronto’s Cause & Effect (C&E) “Weather Drivers”

Run IPCC (Hadley Centre) Regional Circulation Models Run IPCC (Hadley Centre) Regional Circulation Models (RCM – Hadley 3) for area including Toronto for 2050’s and (RCM – Hadley 3) for area including Toronto for 2050’s and 2070’s (under IPCC economic fossil use rates & population 2070’s (under IPCC economic fossil use rates & population scenarios A2 & A1B) … ie the IPCC “Climate Drivers” scenarios A2 & A1B) … ie the IPCC “Climate Drivers”

Identify Changes in Toronto’s C&E “Weather Drivers” – link to Identify Changes in Toronto’s C&E “Weather Drivers” – link to expectations of changes of magnitude, frequency and expectations of changes of magnitude, frequency and probability of future eventsprobability of future events

How We Study? ….. (part 2)How We Study? ….. (part 2)

Use Hadley Centre RCM output to modify the Use Hadley Centre RCM output to modify the “Cause & Effect Weather Drivers” for Toronto and “Cause & Effect Weather Drivers” for Toronto and Re-Run the 1990’s WRF/ FRESH model for 2050’s Re-Run the 1990’s WRF/ FRESH model for 2050’s and 2070’s for Toronto with the future (Hadley 3) and 2070’s for Toronto with the future (Hadley 3) time period inputstime period inputs

Extract Means, Standard Deviations and Extremes Extract Means, Standard Deviations and Extremes (Maximums and Minimums) of all parameters (eg (Maximums and Minimums) of all parameters (eg rainfall, heat, … and indices)rainfall, heat, … and indices)

What Do We Hope To Get? … (part 1)What Do We Hope To Get? … (part 1)

Magnitude, Frequency and Probability of Current Magnitude, Frequency and Probability of Current & Future Significant Weather Events AND the & Future Significant Weather Events AND the Degree of Certainty of Such PredictionsDegree of Certainty of Such Predictions

– EG …. Intense Rainfalls (like Finch Ave., Aug 19, 2005) EG …. Intense Rainfalls (like Finch Ave., Aug 19, 2005) …. Heat Waves …. Freeze-Thaw Cycles …. Winds …. …. Heat Waves …. Freeze-Thaw Cycles …. Winds …. Snowstorms …. Droughts …. etc etc (180 parameters Snowstorms …. Droughts …. etc etc (180 parameters in all)in all)

– NB …. We will not “see” exactly where and when any NB …. We will not “see” exactly where and when any such event will occur – but we do hope to “see” the such event will occur – but we do hope to “see” the likelihood within an area and timeframe of all likelihood within an area and timeframe of all occurrences by their predicted severityoccurrences by their predicted severity

What Do We Hope To Get? … (part 2)What Do We Hope To Get? … (part 2)

Documentation from Consultants as Documentation from Consultants as Scientifically Defensible & Readily Scientifically Defensible & Readily Understandable Reports Understandable Reports

PLUS Documents from City Staff as Publicly PLUS Documents from City Staff as Publicly Understandable & Illustrated Reports and Understandable & Illustrated Reports and Overview SummariesOverview Summaries

What Use Will It All Be ?What Use Will It All Be ?

For Climate Adaptation by City Divisions and For Climate Adaptation by City Divisions and by Others …. (including for example) by Others …. (including for example) – Transportation ServicesTransportation Services– Shelter, Support & HousingShelter, Support & Housing– Toronto WaterToronto Water

To Find the Best Balance and Budget Point To Find the Best Balance and Budget Point Between Over Building and Under Preparing Between Over Building and Under Preparing for Future Eventsfor Future Events

Early ResultsEarly Results

More problems experienced than even we anticipated (data More problems experienced than even we anticipated (data logistics, file matching, etc)logistics, file matching, etc)

Comparison of Model Output w Monitor Data for 1999-2008Comparison of Model Output w Monitor Data for 1999-2008– Very Close Match for 179 of 180 parameters c.f. Model vs Monitor Very Close Match for 179 of 180 parameters c.f. Model vs Monitor

(Precipitation = our biggest issue, but this is not a surprise) (Precipitation = our biggest issue, but this is not a surprise) – But even Aug 19 Storm located perfectly But even Aug 19 Storm located perfectly – Are our intensity issues Are our intensity issues from model issues or monitor issues? from model issues or monitor issues?

Project = On Track, On Time & On Budget Project = On Track, On Time & On Budget Full Results scheduled for early Summer 2010Full Results scheduled for early Summer 2010 Final Product scheduled for late Summer 2010Final Product scheduled for late Summer 2010

WRF/FRESH “matches” Finch Ave WRF/FRESH “matches” Finch Ave Storm of August 19Storm of August 19thth ,2005 ,2005

Post Study Next StepsPost Study Next Steps Outcomes = Purpose & Application (as above) Outcomes = Purpose & Application (as above)

BUT (1) Does our Output truly meet Input needs of Future BUT (1) Does our Output truly meet Input needs of Future Climate Adaptation and Risk Assessment?Climate Adaptation and Risk Assessment?

BUT (2) Is intended further evaluation & modification (as per 5 BUT (2) Is intended further evaluation & modification (as per 5 Year Plan) necessary, do-able and affordable?Year Plan) necessary, do-able and affordable?– Original Intent was to get results PLUS determine: Original Intent was to get results PLUS determine: – Was approach fully satisfactory for needs?Was approach fully satisfactory for needs?– If not, what do we need to do? And, can we do it? If not, what do we need to do? And, can we do it? –

And does our acquired ability and information meet the City’s And does our acquired ability and information meet the City’s and the Community’s present and future needs ?and the Community’s present and future needs ?

Mitigation and Adaptation Mitigation and Adaptation Responses to Climate Change Responses to Climate Change

in the City of Torontoin the City of Toronto

Christopher Llewelyn MorganChristopher Llewelyn Morgan

Toronto Environment Office Toronto Environment Office City of TorontoCity of Toronto

April 15April 15thth, 2010, 2010

OUTLINEOUTLINE

1. The Basic Science of Climate Change 1. The Basic Science of Climate Change 2. Modelling, Monitoring & Analysis 2. Modelling, Monitoring & Analysis 3.3. What is Changing? a) Global b) TorontoWhat is Changing? a) Global b) Toronto4.4. What are the Consequences?What are the Consequences?5.5. Policies and ActionsPolicies and Actions6.6. Mitigation ResponsesMitigation Responses7.7. Adaptation ResponsesAdaptation Responses8.8. Conclusions and SolutionsConclusions and Solutions

Changed Forces Changed Forces Changed Consequences Changed Consequences

Longer Heat Waves Longer Heat Waves more A/C more A/C Stronger Winds Stronger Winds more tree blow down more tree blow down

(which can also take out residential hydro!)(which can also take out residential hydro!)

Longer Growing Season (& pests survive)Longer Growing Season (& pests survive) More Droughts More Droughts loss of habitat and species loss of habitat and species More Frequent & More Intense Rain Events More Frequent & More Intense Rain Events

more wash outs, more basements flooded more wash outs, more basements flooded Changed Tracks of Hurricanes & Tornadoes Changed Tracks of Hurricanes & Tornadoes

More Flooding and Property DamageMore Flooding and Property Damage

Changed Resistances Changed Resistances Changed Consequences Changed Consequences

Infrastructure Has Become Very OldInfrastructure Has Become Very Old Pay me now or pay more later ?Pay me now or pay more later ?

Codes & Standards Are Becoming OutdatedCodes & Standards Are Becoming Outdated Bridges Too Low & Culverts Too SmallBridges Too Low & Culverts Too Small Rail Lines Need Bigger Gaps Rail Lines Need Bigger Gaps Houses & Towers & Wind Standards ? Houses & Towers & Wind Standards ?

Natural Habitat Stressed Natural Habitat Stressed Street Trees & Local Transmission Lines Street Trees & Local Transmission Lines Tree Root Zones Impeded by Pipes & WiresTree Root Zones Impeded by Pipes & Wires

Toronto: August 19, 2005Toronto: August 19, 2005Ontario’s Most Costly Weather Ontario’s Most Costly Weather

DisasterDisaster

Rainfall amounts up to 175 mm recorded in Yonge/Steeles area 103 mm recorded in 1 hour at Environment Canada Downsview BUT only 41.4 mm at Toronto Pearson, 31.8 mm at Toronto City Estimated insured losses from August 19 storms: $500M

STRUCTURESSTRUCTURES Ice Storms and Wet Snow

Rainfall Rainfall Intensity & Intensity & Accum.Accum.

Extreme Winds

Summer Summer Storms & Storms & TornadoesTornadoes

Extreme Extreme SnowpackSnowpack

Power Power Transmission Transmission (structures/lines)(structures/lines)

FAILUREFAILURE ice + windice + wind

ADDITIVEADDITIVE FAILUREFAILURE FAILUREFAILURE SOMESOME

Power Power Distribution Distribution (structures/lines)(structures/lines)

FAILUREFAILUREice + windice + wind

ADDITIVEADDITIVE FAILUREFAILURE FAILUREFAILURE SOMESOME

Communication Communication (structures/lines)(structures/lines)

FAILUREFAILURE ice + windice + wind

LAND LINESLAND LINES FAILUREFAILURE FAILUREFAILURE SOMESOME

Roads, BridgesRoads, Bridges FAILURE FAILURE RISKRISK

DRAINAGE & DRAINAGE & EROSIONEROSION

OPERATIONOPERATION& FAILURE & FAILURE RISKRISK

OPERATIONOPERATION& FAILURE & FAILURE RISKRISK

SERVICE &SERVICE &MATERIALMATERIAL

BuildingsBuildings WET SNOWWET SNOWDRAINAGE & DRAINAGE & FAILUREFAILURE

FAILUREFAILURE FAILUREFAILURE FAILUREFAILURE

Risks to Various Infrastructure Types from Changing Climate and Weather Extremes (Frequencies/Intensities)

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

Accelerated Climate Change due to Human Accelerated Climate Change due to Human Activities is a Scientific and Serious TruthActivities is a Scientific and Serious Truth

Climate Means & Extremes Will ChangeClimate Means & Extremes Will Change Weather Forces + Weakening Resistances Weather Forces + Weakening Resistances

Expensive Consequences Expensive Consequences Local Actions Can Help the Global Problem Local Actions Can Help the Global Problem Significant and Measurable Integrated Local Significant and Measurable Integrated Local

MANAGEMENT Actions are Needed!!MANAGEMENT Actions are Needed!!

SOLUTIONSSOLUTIONS

Manage Mitigation Manage Mitigation – ““Change is in the Air” -- Targets (80% by 50)Change is in the Air” -- Targets (80% by 50)

Manage Adaptation Manage Adaptation – ““Ahead of the Storm” -- Adapt Before It Hurts Ahead of the Storm” -- Adapt Before It Hurts

Ongoing Dynamic Assessment of Stress & Ongoing Dynamic Assessment of Stress & Responses [Policies & Actions]Responses [Policies & Actions]

Employ Long Term Thinking Employ Long Term Thinking Employ Lasting Forceful Resolution Employ Lasting Forceful Resolution

– No More Bridges Too LowNo More Bridges Too Low

The Final Word / Equation The Final Word / Equation

E =E = MMCC33

E = E = EnvironmentEnvironmentM =M = ManagementManagementC1 = C1 = Basic Continental Climate Basic Continental Climate C2 = C2 = Climate Change Climate Change C3 = C3 = Urban Heat Island Climate Urban Heat Island Climate

Plus Plus C4 ? = C4 ? = Catastrophism [vs established Uniformitism] ?Catastrophism [vs established Uniformitism] ?