Topics1 Global Perspective2 China Situation3 United States4 California5 Conclusions

Mark D. LevineMDLevine@lbl.govFor Energy & Climate Mini-WorkshopMonday, 3 November 2008

Intensity of Energy Use

Intensity of Energy Use

Definition

Reducing intensity of energy use includes:• energy efficiency• structural change in economy

(producing and consuming less energy-intensive products)

• energy conservation

1 Global Perspective

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Source: Historical 1950-2003 US and global emissions data from Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center; 2004-2006

US data from BP via Global Carbon Project. China 1950-2006 emissions data are derived from revised total energy consumption data published in the 2007 China Statistical Yearbook using revised 1996 IPCC carbon coefficients by LBNL

数据来源 : 1950-2003年美国和全球的年排放数据来自橡树岭国家实验室二氧化碳信息分析中心 ;2004-2006年美国排放数据来自 BP石油公司全球碳研究项目； 1950-2006年中国的年排放数据是劳伦斯 -伯克利国家实验室根据修正后的 2007年中国统计年鉴中的总能源消费数据和 1996 IPCC碳排放系数确定的 .

Annual Global CO2 Emissions全球二氧化碳年排放量

bil

lio

n t

on

nes

car

bo

n d

iox

ide

China 中国

US 美国

Other Global Emissions

其他国家排放量

十亿吨二氧化

碳

Between 1970 and 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions increased by 70%.

Total GHG emissions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

1970 1980 1990 2000 2004

Gt CO2

eq/yr

WEO ’07 base casefor 2030has 55%increase from 2005(increase of25 Gt CO2 eq/yr)

IPCC (WGIII) Estimates of Economically Feasible CO2eq/yr Reductions in 2030 by Sector

* From “Design to Win (2007), a project of several foundations led by the Hewlett Foundation

in 2030

Total reductionsLow: 13Gt/yrHigh 24Gt/yConstantemissions 25Gt/yr

6* 4* 4* 3* 3* 3*

2*

Annual Rate of Change in Energy/GDP for the World IEA (Energy/Purchasing Power Parity) and EIA (Energy/Market Exchange Rate)

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

IEA data EIA data

note: Russia not included until 1992 in IEA data and 1993 in EIA data

- 1.3% - 1.3%Average = - 0.7%

Strategic Considerations

• Two crucial immediate actions needed– (1) energy efficiency, (2) land use, and (3) cost-effective low carbon (electricity)

supply– Very aggressive RD&D, especially on zero-carbon electricity (including

electricity storage)

• Much stronger government policies needed– Carbon tax (or cap and trade) – Rigorous policies are needed for all end-use sectors

• Efficiency and fuel economy standards, building codes and retrofit requirements, and expanded demand-side management (DSM)

– Few countries address industrial sector

• Beyond energy efficiency: conservation and structural change– Change production processes (e.g., cement)– Change industrial output and consumption patterns– Lifestyle change

2 United States

DivRev05 page 10

Energy Intensity in the United States 1949 - 2005

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.01

94

9

19

51

19

53

19

55

19

57

19

59

19

61

19

63

19

65

19

67

19

69

19

71

19

73

19

75

19

77

19

79

19

81

19

83

19

85

19

87

19

89

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

tho

us

an

d B

tu/$

(in

$2

00

0)

if E/GDP had dropped only 0.4%/yr

Actual (E/GDP drops 2.1%/yr)

If intensity dropped at pre-1973 rate of 0.4%/year

Actual (2.1%/year)

1973 2005

Source: David Goldstein

United States Refrigerator Use v. Time

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

Ave

rag

e E

ner

gy

Use

or

Pri

ce

0

5

10

15

20

25

Ref

rig

erat

or

volu

me

(cu

bic

fee

t)

Energy Use per Unit(KWH/Year)

Refrigerator Size (cubic ft)

Refrigerator Price in 1983 $

$ 1,270

$ 462

United States Refrigerator Use (Actual) and Estimated Household Standby Use v. Time

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1947

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

Ave

rage

En

ergy

Use

per

Un

it S

old

(k

Wh

per

yea

r)

Refrigerator Use per Unit

1978 Cal Standard

1990 Federal Standard

1987 Cal Standard

1980 Cal Standard

1993 Federal Standard 2001 Federal

Standard

Estimated Standby Power (per house)

DivRev05 page 14

High #is worst

DivRev05 page 15

High #is worst

Environmental Energy Technologies

04/10/23 , p. 16

High #is worst

3 China

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Source: China Energy Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 数据来源：劳伦斯 - 伯克利国家实验室，中国能源与环境研究室

Energy & GDP Growth in China中国的能源消费与国内生产总值 (GDP) 增长之间的关系

Prim

ary

Ene

rgy

Use

(E

J)

152 EJ

(official GDP)

152 百万兆焦耳

( 正式公布的国内生产总值 )

103 EJ (revised GDP)

103 百万兆焦耳

( 修正的国内生产总值 )

58 EJ (actual)

58 百万兆焦耳( 实际 )

Estimated energy use at 1980 GDP energy intensity

基于 1980 年国内生产总值能源强度估计中国的能源消费

Actual energy use

实际能源消费

中国的二氧化碳排放占世界总排放量的百分比 (1950-2002)一次能源消费（百万兆焦

耳）

Energy-conservation policies & measures in Phase II

• Energy Management—factory energy

consumption quotas—factory energy

conservation monitoring—efficient technology

promotion—close inefficient facilities—controls on oil use

• Financial Incentives—low interest rates for

efficiency project loans—reduced taxes on efficient

product purchases —incentives to develop new

efficient products—monetary awards to

efficient enterprises

• R D & D– funded strategic technology

development

– funded demonstration projects

• Information Services– national information network

– national, local, and sectoral efficiency technical service centers

• Education & Training– national, local, and sectoral

efficiency training centers

– Energy Conservation Week

– school curricula

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020Source: NBS, China Statistical Yearbook, various years; China Statistical Abstract 2005; growth estimates extrapolated from mid-year production

data for 2005; targets announced by NDRC数据来源：中国国家统计局，中国统计年鉴（各年）；中国统计摘要 (2005)； 2005 年增长数据是基于 2005 年年中生产数据通过插值方法得到的；目

标基于国家发展与改革委员会公布的数据

En

erg

y C

on

sum

ed

(bill

ion

tce

)

36

Actual GDP

实际国内生产总值

Energy and GDP, Path to 2020中国的能源消费与国内生产总值 (至 2020年 )

GD

P

(tril

lion

20

00

RM

B)

32

28

24

20

16

12

8

4

0

2.7

2.4

2.1

1.8

1.5

1.2

0.9

0.6

0.3

0

Actual energy

实际能源消费

energy target

能源目标

GDP target

国内生产总值目标

能源消费（十亿吨标准

煤）

国内生产总值(

千亿2

00

0

年人民币

元 )

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

mil

lio

n t

on

s c

arb

on

d

iox

ide

Annual CO2 Emissions: US & China中美两国年二氧化碳排放比较

Source: US annual emissions amounts reported by US EIA in the 2006 Annual Energy Review and 2007 Flash Estimate; China emissions are derived from revised total energy consumption data published in the 2007 China Statistical Yearbook using revised 1996 IPCC carbon emission coefficients by LBNL

数据来源 : 美国的年排放数据来自美国能源部信息署 2006年能源回顾和 2007年初步估计 ;中国的年排放数据是由劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室根据修正后的 2007年中国统计年鉴中的总能源消费数据和 1996 IPCC碳排放系数确定的 .

China

中国

US

美国

百万吨二氧化

碳

0

5

10

15

20

25

1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004

Source: China emissions are derived from revised total energy consumption data published in the 2007 China Statistical Yearbook using revised 1996 IPCC carbon emission coefficients by LBNL; China population data from NBS and US Census (for 1950-51); global and American emissions data from Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center; global and American population data from US Census

数据来源：中国的年排放数据是劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室根据修正后的 2007年中国统计年鉴中的总能源消费数据和 1996 IPCC碳排放系数确定的 .中国的人口数据来自中国国家统计局 (其中 1950-51年数据来自美国统计局 )；全球和美国的年排放数据来自橡树岭国家实验室二氧化碳信息分析中心；全球和美国人口数据来自美国统计局。

Global, Chinese & U.S. Per-Capita Energy-Related CO2 Emissions – 1950-20041950-2004 年全球、中国和美国的人均能源相关二氧化碳排放量

ton

s C

O2/

pe

rso

n

China 中国

US 美国

Global Average 全球平均

吨二氧化碳/

人

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1990 1995 2000 20050

100

200

300

400

500

1990 1995 2000 2005

Source: China Iron and Steel Association; Institute of Technical Information for the Building Materials Industry; U.S. Geological Survey

数据来源：中国钢铁协会；建筑材料工业技术情报研究所；美国国家地质调查局

Million Metric Tons

China’s Steel Production 1990 – 2007

Coal Use & Energy-Related CO2煤炭消费与能源相关二氧化碳排放

China’s Cement Production 1990 – 2007

中国的钢铁生产量（ 1990-2007年） 中国的水泥生产量（ 1990-2007年）

百万吨

Source: U.S. Geological Survey 2008. Mineral Commodity Summaries: Cement; China National Bureau of Statistics, 2008资料来源：美国地质调查局 2008年。 矿产品摘要：水泥 ;中国国家统计局 2008年数据。

India 6%

Cement Production Worldwide: 2007世界水泥生产量 2007

United States 4% (includes Puerto

Rico)

Japan 3%

Rep of Korea 2%

Russia 2%

Spain 2%

Turkey 2%

Mexico 2%

Italy 2%

Rest of World 26%

China ~50%

墨西哥

意大利

土耳其

西班牙

俄罗斯

韩国日本

美国（包括波多黎各） 印度

中国

其他国家

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Source: China Energy Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory资料来源：劳伦斯 -伯克利国家实验室 ， 中国能源与环境研究室

kgce

/RM

B

(20

00)

Industrial Energy Intensities are Declining工业能源强度在下降

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

Smelting & rolling of ferrous metals　金属冶炼及压延加工

0

2.0

Petroleum, coke & nuclear 　 石油，焦炭与核电

Non-metal mineral products 非金属矿物制品

Chemicals 　 化工

Non-ferrous metals　有色金属

Paper 　 造纸 Coal 　 煤

Electricity 　 电力

Textiles 　 纺织

千克标准煤/2000

年人民币

元

DivRev05 page 26

• China has mounted an aggressive set of programs to reduce energy intensity by 20% from 2005 to 2010

• It is likely to achieve a 15% reduction in energy intensity

• Because of large future CO2 emissions of China, there is a strong case to be made for international support for China to reduce growth of emissions

4 California

California

Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)(kWh/person)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

19

60

19

62

19

64

19

66

19

68

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

California

United States

Per Capita Electricity Sales Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)(not including self-generation)

Annual Energy Savings from Efficiency Programs and Standards

CEC (2005)

Annual Usage of Air Conditioning in New Homes in California

Annual drop averages 4% per year

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,00019

70

197

2

197

4

197

6

197

8

198

0

198

2

198

4

198

6

198

8

199

0

199

2

199

4

199

6

199

8

200

0

200

2

200

4

200

6

kWh

/YE

AR

Source: CEC Demand Analysis Office

1992 Federal Appliance Standard

California Title 20 Appliance Standards1976-1982

Initial California Title 24 Building Standards

Estimated Impact of 2006 SEER 12 Standards

100%

33%

Annual Spending on Electricity Energy Efficiency (1976-2002)

CEC Staff Report “Proposed Energy Savings Goals for Energy Efficiency Programs in California” (2003)

DivRev05 page 33

Historical Spending on Electrical Energy Historical Spending on Electrical Energy Efficiency (1976-2002)Efficiency (1976-2002)

CEC Staff Report “Proposed Energy Savings Goals for Energy Efficiency Programs in California” (2003)

Projected Spending on Electrical Energy Projected Spending on Electrical Energy Efficiency (2006-2008)Efficiency (2006-2008)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

2006 2007 2008

Program Years

Dramatic Increase in CA Utility Dramatic Increase in CA Utility DSM Program (2006-2008)DSM Program (2006-2008)

Projected Impact of EE programs in reducing utility load growth (2004-2013)

• Utilities’ forecasted load growth without energy efficiency ranges from 1.1% to 2.4% annually• The three CA utilities expect to reduce electricity growth to <0.5%/year (by >75% from base case

expectations) over coming 10 years!

Avi

sta

BC

Hyd

ro

Idah

o Po

wer

NW

E

Paci

fiCor

p

PGE

PSE

PG&

E

SCE

SDG

&E

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%A

nnua

l Ene

rgy

Load

Gro

wth

(%

)

T otal Energy Requirements

Adjusted Forecast (net of incremental program effects)

5 Observations and Conclusions

DivRev05 page 36

Greatest Needs to Reduce Energy IntensityGreatest Needs to Reduce Energy Intensity

• What we can’t do well enough = need for RD&D

− Near zero-energy commercial buildings

− Electricity storage, especially batteries for vehicles

− Industrial process and product substitution (including “dematerialization”)

− Changes in behavior and lifestyle

• U.S. Policy

− More rigorous standards and codes for buildings, industry, and automobiles

− Transfer DSM capabilities among utilities

− Open discussion of cap and trade vs. carbon tax

• International, especially China and India

− Phase out CDM – too expensive and not effective

− Programs to support policies to reduce GHG emissions