Top: Flood Potential Left-Top: 3 hourly rainfall Left-bottom: Accumulated rainfall NASA TRMM...
-
Upload
catherine-harper -
Category
Documents
-
view
220 -
download
0
Transcript of Top: Flood Potential Left-Top: 3 hourly rainfall Left-bottom: Accumulated rainfall NASA TRMM...
![Page 1: Top: Flood Potential Left-Top: 3 hourly rainfall Left-bottom: Accumulated rainfall NASA TRMM Products Typhoon Morakot: August 4 - 10 2009 1/11.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f275503460f94c3fb55/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
QuickTime™ and aNone decompressor
are needed to see this picture. QuickTime™ and aNone decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
QuickTime™ and aNone decompressor
are needed to see this picture.Top: Flood PotentialLeft-Top: 3 hourly rainfallLeft-bottom: Accumulated rainfall
NASA TRMM Products
Typhoon Morakot: August 4 - 10 2009
1/11
![Page 2: Top: Flood Potential Left-Top: 3 hourly rainfall Left-bottom: Accumulated rainfall NASA TRMM Products Typhoon Morakot: August 4 - 10 2009 1/11.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f275503460f94c3fb55/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
The impact of microphysics on precipitation associated with Typhoon Morakot 2009
Land/River changeafter Typhoon
Landslide/potential Landslide regions
20 and 48 haccumulatedrainfall
2
<--
-->
![Page 3: Top: Flood Potential Left-Top: 3 hourly rainfall Left-bottom: Accumulated rainfall NASA TRMM Products Typhoon Morakot: August 4 - 10 2009 1/11.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f275503460f94c3fb55/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
http://daveslandslideblog.blogspot.com/
風災前
Typhoon Morakot (2009)
災前農林航測所影像 災後福衛二號衛星影像 (2009 年 )after before
Over all in Taiwan: more than 25,000 persons were evacuated before heavy rainfall associated with TY Morakot. However, the life losses close to 700.
![Page 4: Top: Flood Potential Left-Top: 3 hourly rainfall Left-bottom: Accumulated rainfall NASA TRMM Products Typhoon Morakot: August 4 - 10 2009 1/11.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f275503460f94c3fb55/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
NASA Unified (Physics) WRF
Blue Boxes: NASA Physical Packages
Land Information System (LIS)
Land Surface Model
Goddard Microphysical
Packages
Goddard Radiative
Transfer Packages
Cloud Optical
Properties
Aerosol Indirect
Effect
Cloud/Aerosol
Direct Effect
Urban Heat
Island Effect
Sfc FluxesPrecipitation
Radiation
Cloud-Mesoscale
Dyanmics (Circulation)
Thermodynamic (Stability )
GOCART
WRF-Chem
Rain Fall
Asimilation
Initial Condiiton
from GEOS5
for NASA Field
Campaigns
qg qgqs
qs
3
Climatologically, 40-dBZ penetrations above 10 km are rare even over land
(Zipser et al. 2006)
Lang et al. (2007): 3ice-graupelWRF3.1
Lang et al. (2009): 3ice-graupelGoddard WRF3.1
PIs: C. Peters-Lidard, M. Chin, W.-K. Tao
W.-K. Tao
C. Peters-Lidard
M. Chin
![Page 5: Top: Flood Potential Left-Top: 3 hourly rainfall Left-bottom: Accumulated rainfall NASA TRMM Products Typhoon Morakot: August 4 - 10 2009 1/11.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f275503460f94c3fb55/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
391x322, 475x427, and 538x43918, 6 and 2 km
61 vertical layers
Initial condition: NCEP GFS 10 global analysis
72 h integration starting at 00Z August 7 - 00Z August 10 2009
Physics:
• Cu parameterization: Grell-Devenyi scheme (for the outer grid only)
• Cloud microphysics:
Goddard microphysics 3ice-Graupel
• Radiation:
Shortwave: New Goddard
Longwave: New Goddard
• PBL parameterization:
Mellor-Yamada-Janjic TKE scheme
• Surface Layer:
Monin-Obukhov (Janic)
• Land Surface Model: Noah land-surface
1 Goddard 3Ice-Hail (new Evap, Li et al. 2009) 2 Goddard 3ice-graupel (Lang et al. 2007) 3 Goddard 3ice-graupel (Lang et al. 2009) 4 Goddard Warm only
4Red: Not in NCAR WRF 3.1 yet
![Page 6: Top: Flood Potential Left-Top: 3 hourly rainfall Left-bottom: Accumulated rainfall NASA TRMM Products Typhoon Morakot: August 4 - 10 2009 1/11.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f275503460f94c3fb55/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Best Track from JMA at every 3 hours
Best Track for Typhoon Morakot (2009)
WRF simulated sea level pressure (mb) & wind at 900 mb level
5
![Page 7: Top: Flood Potential Left-Top: 3 hourly rainfall Left-bottom: Accumulated rainfall NASA TRMM Products Typhoon Morakot: August 4 - 10 2009 1/11.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f275503460f94c3fb55/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Grid Resolution Maximum Height1 km 3610 m3 km 3255 m6 km 2885 m9 km 2695 m
WRF (2km) simulated hourly (right) and accumulated (left) rainfall & wind at 900 mb level
Observed 20 h accumulated rainfall
Terrain height (m)
Maximum Terrain HeightIn different model resolution
6
![Page 8: Top: Flood Potential Left-Top: 3 hourly rainfall Left-bottom: Accumulated rainfall NASA TRMM Products Typhoon Morakot: August 4 - 10 2009 1/11.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f275503460f94c3fb55/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
20h accumulated precipitation plot at 12Z 8/8 2009, local time 20Z 8/8
3ice-hail with reduced ERN
3ice-graupel (Lang et al. 2007) 3ice-graupel (Lang et al. 2009)
warm rain only
7
![Page 9: Top: Flood Potential Left-Top: 3 hourly rainfall Left-bottom: Accumulated rainfall NASA TRMM Products Typhoon Morakot: August 4 - 10 2009 1/11.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f275503460f94c3fb55/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
20h accumulated precipitation plot at 12Z 8/8 2009, local time 20Z 8/8
3ice-hail with reduced ERN
3ice-graupel (Lang et al. 2007) 3ice-graupel (Lang et al. 2009)
warm rain only
8
![Page 10: Top: Flood Potential Left-Top: 3 hourly rainfall Left-bottom: Accumulated rainfall NASA TRMM Products Typhoon Morakot: August 4 - 10 2009 1/11.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f275503460f94c3fb55/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
48h accumulated precipitation (mm) from 00Z 8/7 to 00Z 8/9, 2009(local time: 08Z 8/7 to 08Z 8/9, 2009)
3ice-hail with reduced ERN
3ice-graupel (Lang et al.2007) 3ice-graupel (Lang et al. 2009)
warm rain only
9
![Page 11: Top: Flood Potential Left-Top: 3 hourly rainfall Left-bottom: Accumulated rainfall NASA TRMM Products Typhoon Morakot: August 4 - 10 2009 1/11.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f275503460f94c3fb55/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
72h accumulated precipitation (mm) from 00Z 8/7 to 00Z 8/10, 2009(local time: 08Z 8/7 to 08Z 8/10, 2009)
3ice-hail with reduced ERN
3ice-graupel (Lang et al. 2007) 3ice-graupel (Lang et al. 2009)
warm rain only
10
![Page 12: Top: Flood Potential Left-Top: 3 hourly rainfall Left-bottom: Accumulated rainfall NASA TRMM Products Typhoon Morakot: August 4 - 10 2009 1/11.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f275503460f94c3fb55/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
scheme max. precip.
3ice-h redu. ERN 3307 mm
3ice-g original 3345 mm
3ice-g improved 2942 mm
warm rain only 2000 mm
Obs. 2434 mm
scheme max. precip.
3ice-h redu. ERN 2867 mm
3ice-g original 2856 mm
3ice-g improved 2396 mm
warm rain only 1589 mm
Obs. 2143 mm
48h 72h
Detailed comparison with observation (CFADs, rainfall analysis/sub-domains)
Water budget calculation/analysis
Trajectory and tracer calculations/analysis
Sensitivity tests on model resolutions, microphysics and PBL
Ensemble forecasts/simulations (Initial conditions, and microphysics)11
![Page 13: Top: Flood Potential Left-Top: 3 hourly rainfall Left-bottom: Accumulated rainfall NASA TRMM Products Typhoon Morakot: August 4 - 10 2009 1/11.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f275503460f94c3fb55/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Thank you for your attention
QuickTime™ and aYUV420 codec decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Tracer/Trajectory analysis dt=2 min, dx=1.67 km
Morakot (09)Ike (08)Choiwan (09)
![Page 14: Top: Flood Potential Left-Top: 3 hourly rainfall Left-bottom: Accumulated rainfall NASA TRMM Products Typhoon Morakot: August 4 - 10 2009 1/11.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f275503460f94c3fb55/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Yushan station3845 m
432 rainfall stations
![Page 15: Top: Flood Potential Left-Top: 3 hourly rainfall Left-bottom: Accumulated rainfall NASA TRMM Products Typhoon Morakot: August 4 - 10 2009 1/11.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f275503460f94c3fb55/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
LST=UTC+8
>400mm
>1000mm
>600mm
Typhoon Morakot 24 hours accumulate rainfall
![Page 16: Top: Flood Potential Left-Top: 3 hourly rainfall Left-bottom: Accumulated rainfall NASA TRMM Products Typhoon Morakot: August 4 - 10 2009 1/11.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f275503460f94c3fb55/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
![Page 17: Top: Flood Potential Left-Top: 3 hourly rainfall Left-bottom: Accumulated rainfall NASA TRMM Products Typhoon Morakot: August 4 - 10 2009 1/11.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f275503460f94c3fb55/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: Top: Flood Potential Left-Top: 3 hourly rainfall Left-bottom: Accumulated rainfall NASA TRMM Products Typhoon Morakot: August 4 - 10 2009 1/11.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f275503460f94c3fb55/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
小林村 9-19鄰
往那瑪夏鄉
楠峰橋
底圖資料取自:農委會林務局農林航測所
獻肚山
>100 houses
![Page 19: Top: Flood Potential Left-Top: 3 hourly rainfall Left-bottom: Accumulated rainfall NASA TRMM Products Typhoon Morakot: August 4 - 10 2009 1/11.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f275503460f94c3fb55/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
小林村災害前後衛星影像
小林村災前災後影像初步分析得知,位於楠梓仙溪 (旗山溪 )左岸及右岸之山坡地區崩塌,左岸土砂掩埋聚落並衝至右岸堆積,推測可能阻斷楠梓仙溪形成堰塞湖,並已潰決造成山洪暴發影響下游地區。
災前農林航測所影像災後福衛二號衛星影像 (2009 年 )
BeforeAfter
3.2km
![Page 20: Top: Flood Potential Left-Top: 3 hourly rainfall Left-bottom: Accumulated rainfall NASA TRMM Products Typhoon Morakot: August 4 - 10 2009 1/11.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f275503460f94c3fb55/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Hourly rainfall distribution in Taiwan during Typhoon Morakot at 00LST (left) and 18LST (right), 8 August, 2009.
Rainfall at SD(2,4)Rainfall at SD(3,3)
~20
![Page 21: Top: Flood Potential Left-Top: 3 hourly rainfall Left-bottom: Accumulated rainfall NASA TRMM Products Typhoon Morakot: August 4 - 10 2009 1/11.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f275503460f94c3fb55/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Rainfall at SD(2,4)Rainfall at SD(3,3)
Normal (mean)Normal (mean)Above normalLarger 1/3
Above normalLarger 1/3
>10>35
~40
~50
>20 >40
SD(3,3) SD(2,4)
![Page 22: Top: Flood Potential Left-Top: 3 hourly rainfall Left-bottom: Accumulated rainfall NASA TRMM Products Typhoon Morakot: August 4 - 10 2009 1/11.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f275503460f94c3fb55/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
CWB Rainfall forecast for TY Morakot (2009)
~500mm
~200mm
Forecast at 6 Aug, 1600LST
smaller rainfall ~600mm
![Page 23: Top: Flood Potential Left-Top: 3 hourly rainfall Left-bottom: Accumulated rainfall NASA TRMM Products Typhoon Morakot: August 4 - 10 2009 1/11.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f275503460f94c3fb55/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
accumulate
hourly
Rainfall at a station in NE TaiwanSatellite imagery of Tropical Cyclone Prama (2009)
MelorPrama
![Page 24: Top: Flood Potential Left-Top: 3 hourly rainfall Left-bottom: Accumulated rainfall NASA TRMM Products Typhoon Morakot: August 4 - 10 2009 1/11.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f275503460f94c3fb55/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
CWB Rainfall forecast for TC Prama (2009)
~1200mm
~500mm
Offiicial Forecast at 4 Oct, 0700LST
Smaller rainfall
Observation 4-7 Oct
Climatology mean rainfall rate