Tools and Technologies for water resources

planning and climate change adaptationDr. Chusit Apirumanekul

Dr. Vitor Vieira Vasconcelos, CNPq Scholarship (Brazil)

Miaojie Sun

Session 3

Workshop on Climate Change Adaptation for Bhutan

26th February, 2015

Bangkok, Stockholm Environment Institute, Asia Centre

1Developed with the support of CNPq – National Council

for Technological and Scientific Development – Brazil

Objectives

• To achieve basic understanding on steps in water

resources planning

• To have better understanding on tool/technology

that can be used for water resource planning and

climate change adaptation

• To jointly assess the impacts of climate changes

on water resources in Nepal

• To brainstorm the options to address the

identified issues for planning processes

2

Contents

• Section 1 : Introduction to Integrated Water

Resources Management (IWRM) and decision

support tools

• Section 2 : Tools and Techniques for IWRM

• Section 3 : Group works

3

Background of IWRM• Water is a key driver of economic

and social development

• Drivers such as demography, economic growth and climatic variability increase the stress on water resources

• Decision makers have difficulties on water allocation

• The basis of IWRM is that different uses of water are interdependent

• Integrated management considers different uses of water resources together

4

Basis of IWRM

• The basis of IWRM is that different uses of

water are considered together.

Navigation Industrial

Flood protection Mining

Irrigation Electricity

Domestic and commercial Fishery

Environmental control / ecosystem Salinity

Recreation / tourism etc

5

IWRM definition

• IWRM is a process which

promotes the coordinated

development and management

of water, land and related

resources, in order to maximize

the resultant economic and social

welfare in an equitable manner

without compromising the

sustainability of vital ecosystems.

GWP, TAC Background Paper No. 4: Integrated

Water Resources Management

6

IWRM definition

• IWRM (Bogardi and Nachtnebel 1994; Kindler 2000)

is a systematic approach to planning and

management that considers a range of supply-side

and demand-side processes and actions, and

incorporates stakeholder participation in decision

processes.

http://www.dwaf.gov.za/iwrm/contents/about/what_is_iwrm.asp

(adapted from GWP (2010))

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Driving forces for water resources• Population growth: more people, more water demands

• Urbanization: migration from rural to urban areas leading to

water supply and waste water treatment issues

• Economic growth: increased demand for economic activities

and land use change

• Water quality: pollution from industrial, agricultural and

municipal sources

• Climate variability: more intense floods and droughts

increase vulnerability of people (uncertainty about water

cycle regimes)

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9

Establish status and

overall goals

� Water resources issues

� Goals and progress towards

IWRM framework

� Recent international

developments

Analyse gaps

� Water resources management

function required

� Management potentials and

constraints

Build commitment to

reform process

� Political will

� Awareness

� Multi stakeholder dialogue

Prepare strategy and

action plan

� Enabling environment

� Institutional roles

� Management instruments

� Links to national policies

Implement frameworks

� IWRM framework

� Framework for water

infrastructure development

� Build capacity

Monitor and evaluate

progress

� Indicators of progress towards

IWRM and water

infrastructure development

framework

Build commitment to

actions

� Political adoption

� Stakeholder acceptance

� Identifying financing

The IWRM Planning Cycle

Source : http://www.gwp.org/en/The-Challenge/What-is-IWRM/IWRM-Application/

IWRM has no fixed

beginnings or endings

Data collection

and data analysis

Communication

and stakeholder

engagement

Regulatory

instruments –

standards, land use

plan, subsidies,

charges, taxes and

etc.

Allocation and

conflict resolutions

Decision Support

Tools

What are Decision Support Tools - DST?

Interactive procedures, software and

databases to assist in making informed

decisions

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Decision Support Tool (DST)

• There is always a wide range of data available to the decision-maker

• Decision Support Tool is to provide information in a form that readily supports the decision

• Water resource management – meteorological data, hydrologic data, geologic data, landscape, landuse, population and etc.

• The use of DST to assist in water resource management issues constitute some amounts of work being performed on developing computer based decision support tools to facilitate the analysis processes.

11

DST to understand the integration…

in the natural systems:

• between land and water

• between rainfall, surface water and

groundwater

• between water quantity and quality

• between upstream and downstream

• between the freshwater system and the

coastal watersReference: IWRM at a Glance. Global Water Parnership – GWP.

(http://www.gwp.org/Global/The%20Challenge/Resource%20material/IWRM%20at%20a%20glance.pdf)

12

Functions of DST

• Organize data (databases)

• Visualize data

• Analyze

• System Modeling

• Communication

13

Examples of Decision Support Tools

• Geographical Information Systems

– Geodatabases

– Remote Sensing

– Spatial Analysis

– Web-visualization

Spatial Analysis of flow Accumulation in Ayeyarwady Delta. In: Theilen-Willige, B., &

Pararas-Carayannis, G. (2009). Natural hazard assessment of SW Myanmar-a contribution of

remote sensing and GIS methods to the detection of areas vulnerable to earthquakes and

tsunami/cyclone flooding. Science of Tsunami Hazards, 28(2), 108

14

Examples of Decision Support Tools

• Hydrological Modeling

– River Flow

– Groundwater Flow

– Water Quality

– Flood

– Water use

– Reservoir Management

WEAP and MODFLOW modelling. Available at:

http://www.bgr.bund.de/EN/Themen/Wasser/Projekte/abges

chlossen/TZ/Acsad_dss/dss_fb_en.html

15

Examples of Decision Support Tools

• Climate Change Models

– Trends in temperature

and rainfall

– Vulnerability to climate

change (based on social

and economic data)

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Reference: eWater Source — Australia's national hydrological modelling platform (http://www.ewater.com.au/products/ewater-source/)

Will there be some

climate change?

What happens if we add an

irrigation project?

If we deforest an area, what is the

effect on river flow and sediments?

And if we build a new water

infrastructure, what are the

benefits and costs?

Considering the expected city growth, When will

there be conflict with upstream water use?

If we change the crop, what is the

effect on river sediments?

Practical use of DST in IWRM

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Section 2 : Tools and Techniques for

IWRM

1. Structural measures

– Flood control structures

– Water harvesting

2. Non-structural measures

– Modelling

– Remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS)

– Weather indexes

– Early warning system

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Structural measure

• Viewing as structural hard-engineered interventions, such as

floodway and reservoir, as well as more natural measures, such

as wetlands and natural buffers

• Reducing flood and drought hazards by controlling the flow of

water in rivers and streams.

• Tending to transfer flood risk from one location only to increase

it in another

• Remaining some residual risk of

flooding

• Keeping water away from people

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Structural measures – Flood control

structures (1/2)

• Flood Storage / Reservoir

• Confinement of flow by

dyke, levee or embankment

• Channel improvement

• Bypass channels or

floodways

• Drainage of flood water by pumping

NICOLAS ASFOURI AFP/Getty

Images

20

Structural measures – Flood control

structures (2/2)

21

Structural measure - Rainwater

harvesting (1/5)

• The term rainwater harvesting refers to reuse

of stored water, including water purification,

and can form part of a sustainable drainage

system

• Most commonly, reuse will be for purposes

which are less sensitive to water quality (such as irrigation, washing or toilet flushing).

22

Structural measure - Rainwater

harvesting (2/5)

Provisioning

• Can increase crop productivity, food supply and income

• Can increase water and fodder for livestock and poultry

• Can increase infiltration, thus recharging shallow groundwater sources and river base flow

• Improves productive habitats, and increases species diversity in flora and fauna

Regulating

• Can affect the temporal

distribution of water in

landscape

• Reduces fast flows and

reduces incidences of flooding

• Reduces soil erosion

• Bridges water supply in

droughts and dry spells

• Stop polluted runoff before reaching waterbodies

Source : Cities and Flooding : A Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management for the 21st

Century (World Bank, 2011)23

Structural measure - Rainwater

harvesting (3/5)

• The storage of rainwater in

numerous small tanks helps in

reducing peak runoff and

controlling overflowing of

drainage infrastructure.

• This is more cost effective than

storing rainwater in larger

reservoirs or improving the

carrying capacity of the

drainage infrastructure.

• This however requires

effective public participation and awareness generation.

http://hk-magazine.com/city-living/article/underground-hong-kong

Source : Cities and Flooding : A Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk

Management for the 21st Century (World Bank, 2011)

24

Rainwater harvesting (4/5)

Example in Brazil

Mountainous context:• Few plain places with deep

soil, to dig larger ponds

• Difficult access for tractors

• Embankment ponds in steep slopes can break and offer more risks

• Many small scattered embankment ponds may offer less risk

• Ponds along roads to facilitate the access

Source: http://www.panoramio.com/photo/14270801

Source :

http://projetobarraginhas.blogspot.com/2012/09/fazendas-produtoras-de-agua-primeira.html

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Rainwater harvesting (5/5) - Household

levelRainfall

Roof top

collectionOpen space

harvesting

Direct

storage

Groundwat

er recharge

Filtering

chamber

Use

Source: Chennai Metro Water.

http://chennaimetrowater.gov.in/departments/rainwater.htm

http://www.bloggang.com/vi

ewblog.php?id=lifeinbelgique

&date=01-06-2011&group=27&gblog=1

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Non-structural measure

• Based on the concept of ‘risk awareness’ -

how to live with flood and drought

• Preventing flood and drought damage based

on acceptance them as natural processes that

cannot be completely controlled

• NOT related to infrastructure

• Ex:

– Changing crop patterns

– Keeping people away from water

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Example of flood routing models

• Hydrologic routing (simple) – balancing of inflow,

outflow and volume of storage through use of

continuity equation

• Hydraulic routing (complex) – more accurate and is

based on solution of

continuity equation

momentum equation

28

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Q0)(

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=−−∂∂+

∂∂+

∂∂

fo SSgx

yg

A

Q

xAt

Q

A

t

SOI

∆∆=−

Hydrological and Hydraulics model• Hydrological model

Simulation of processes in turning

rainfall into surface runoff and

simplified channel runoff

• Hydraulics model

Simulation of flood propagation

in the channel (open channel /

closed conduit) which may

include backwater effects, flow

through hydraulics structure and

2-D flows)

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Hydrological / Rainfall-Runoff Model

1D&2D Hydraulic model / flood routing

Flood map (50-year return period)

Rainfall analysis – 50-year return period rainfall e vent

Flood modelling system

30

Crest Model for Bhutan

CREST – Coupled Routing and Excess Storage

• Hydrological Model for each cell in a raster

Weather + Surface characteristics

Water Balance

Excess of water is routed downstream to next cellSource: Crest 2.1. User Manual. National Weather Center. Norman, USA. 2015.

http://hydro.ou.edu/files/Crest_Workshops/CRESTv2.1/CREST-User-Manual-v2.1_Fortran.pdf

31

Crest Viewer - Bhutan

Available at: http://apps.geoportal.icimod.org/BhutanCrest/#32

Case Study – Impact of Climate Change

in Bhutan Rivers

• Simulated climate change of + 1.5 oC in 2050 and 2 scenarios of +2.5 oC and + 4.9 oC for 2100

• HBV (Hydrologiska ByrånsVattenbalansavdelning) Hydrological Model

– Distributed model (cell by cell analysis)

– Input: rainfall, temperature and land use

– Calibrated with gauging stations

– Output for each cell: stream flow, evaporation, soil moisture, groundwater storage

Beldring, S. 2011. Climate change impacts on the flow regimes of rivers in Bhutan and possible

consequences for hydropower development. NVE.

Available at: webby.nve.no/publikasjoner/report/2011/report2011_04.pdf 33

ResultsChange in mean annual runoff (mm) for 2050,

model Echam A2

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ResultsChange in mean annual runoff (mm) for 2100,

model Echam A2

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NON-STRUCTURAL : GIS

36

Source:

http://www.gislounge.com/what-is-gis/

http://www.esri.com/what-is-gis

Geographic – Spatial data related to the Earth

Information – Other attribute data in tabulate

as information about each of the spatial

feature

System – A technology that allows

you to visualize, question, analyze,

and interpret data

What is GIS?

37

How data is stored?

Layers

Source:

http://www.gislounge.com/what-is-gis/

Attributes in the Geodatabase

38

Case Study in Bhutan

Glaciers have retreated by

20-30 meters annually

especially in the Bhutan

Himalayas, leading to a

rough estimation of about

500 meters retreat in the

last 25 years.

Source: Chhophel, Mr. Karma G. “Climate change adaptation and glof risk reduction in the region and beyond: current developments and opportunities”. In: Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) ‘Reducing Risks and Ensuring Preparedness. 5-7 December, 2013. Proceedings Summary.

Karma. 2008. Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake

Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan. Department of Geology and Mines. NCAP.

39

Glacier Dynamics in Bhutan

http://apps.geoportal.icimod.org/BhutanGlacier/index.html#

Mountain Geoportal. Glacier Dynamics in Bhutan App. Servir Himalaya.40

WEAP : WATER EVALUATION AND

PLANNING SYSTEM

41

• Integrates stream flow and water demands

• Exploration of future scenarios for decision support– Changes in water use

– Strategies for allocation

– Structural measures (e.g., reservoirs)

– Climate change

• Many sub-models (glacial melting, finance, groundwater, hydropower, water quality, among others)

• Developed by Stockholm Environment Institute

• Free license for government, academic and non-profit organizations in developing countries

Available at: http://www.weap21.org/42

Case Study – WEAP model for

Andes mountains of Peru

(Rímac and Santa Basins)

Andes in Peru. Photo: SEI/IRD - 2010

Modeling the

hydrological

impacts of

climate change

in glacial

mountains

SEI and IRD. 2010. Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Mountain Hydrology.

World Bank Reports. Available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10986/227843

Results of the model

• Accelerated glacier melting

• Changes in mountain wetlands

hydrology (environmental impact)

• Average discharge decrease

• Reduction in peak flow discharge

Changes in glaciers in 2036 with

+ 2 degrees celsius

Reduction of 21% of discharge in La Balsa sub-basin

Different scenarios of climate change in

2040

+ 0.5 degrees

+ 2 degrees

44

WEAP : WATER CITY MANAGEMENT

– BANGKOK CASE

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Water SupplyMWA water supply

• Chao Phraya River : 60 m3/s

• Mae Klong Dam : 45 m3/s

• Residential, Industrial and

others

Groundwater supply

• Unlimited supply

• Private withdrawal in any

province

• Percentage of non-residential

water supplies from MWA

Sources of surface water supply

Source of GW supply

46

Water demand

• Water demand from residence is estimated

by LPCD (litre per capita per day) multiplied

by 365 days (200 LPCD)

• Other water demands (business, industrial,

public and others) is obtained from MWA

water sale by sectors in Nonthaburi and

Samutprakarn

• LPCD in Bangkok has been increasing

Water consumption = Fn (household size, rising income and water price)

47

48

NON-STRUCTURAL : WEATHER

INDEXES (DROUGHT INDEX)

49

Approaches to analyze droughts

• Meteorological

• Hydrological

• Vegetational

• SocioeconomicSource: Wilhite, D.A. and M.H. Glantz. 1985. Understanding the drought phenomenon: the role of definitions. Water Int., 10:111-120.

Runoff generation

Water use

Rainfall

Evaporation

Stream flow

Water in the soil

Means to access water

50

SPEI – Standardized Precipitation Index

WMO. 2012. Standardized Precipitation Index User Guide.

Available at: http://www.wamis.org/agm/pubs/SPI/WMO_1090_EN.pdf

51

• Precipitation – Evapotranspiration

(calculated from temperature)

SPEI Values

SPEI

Global drought monitor.

http://sac.csic.es/spei/map/maps.html

Monitoring SPEI - November 2014

NON-STRUCTURAL : EARLY

WARNING SYSTEM

53

Flash Flood Monitoring

• Mekong River Commission Flash Flood Guidance system

• To provide real-time informational guidance products for flash flood warning (diagnostic system, NOT prediction)

• A rapid evaluation on the potential for a flash flood for a specific location

• Flash Flood Guidance = Satellite rainfall estimate + telemetry system + soil moisture

54

Soil Water Saturation Fraction Satellite Estimate Rainfall

55

Flash Flood Guidance

1-hour 3-hour

56

Group exercises (60+30 mins)

1. Divide into 3 groups (Southwest, Middle and East) and

discuss on characteristics, climate pattern and climate

change impacts on climate pattern (5 mins)

2. List out the impacts of CC on water resources issues in

details (10 mins)

3. Discuss on the potential tools/technologies (10 mins)

4. Identify gaps on those identified tools/technologies (15

mins)

5. Discuss on potential solutions to address the gaps (20 mins)

6. Report to plenary + comments (30 mins : 10 mins each)

57