Tools and Analysis to Support Freight System Resilience

Transportation LogisticsSpring 2009

Why Resilience?

Supply chains leaner and longer Sense that disruptions are or will become,

more common Significant economic consequences from

disruptions A complex problem

Complexity

Enterprises are dynamic actors Economics are not well documented and vary by

organization Multitude of events and consequences External disruptions outside the purview of

transportation Consequences depend on actions Existing economic models poorly suited

System Elements

Concept Definition

Resiliencethe “ability to recover from or adjust easily to misfortune or

change”

Physical Infrastructure

the system of network of nodes and links (e.g. port facilities, distribution centers, warehouses, intermodal yards, bridges, rail lines, and roadways) sensors, and information technology infrastructure that support freight transportation and travel.

Managing Organization

the unit that oversees the construction, maintenance, and performance of the freight transportation physical infrastructure. This includes the management, utilization, and dissemination of roadway data.

System Usersbusiness enterprises that move goods on the transportation

infrastructure and utilize roadway information.

Concept Definition

Infrastructure Resilience

the ability of the network to move goods in the face of infrastructure failure, either through a reduction in capacity, a complete failure, or a failure in the information infrastructure to provide information.

Managing Organization Resilience

“the capacity to meet priorities and achieve goals in a timely and efficient manner in order to contain losses”.

Enterprise Resilience

the ability of an enterprise to move goods in a timely and efficient manner in the face of infrastructure disruption.

Freight Transportation System Resilience

the ability for the freight transportation system to absorb shocks and reduce the consequences of disruptions. Freight transportation system resilience can be deconstructed along its component dimensions: the infrastructure, the managing organization, and the system users.

Resilience Strategies

actions or behaviors of users or managing organizations, that promote resilience in one or a number of dimensions of the freight transportation system.

Measuring the Disruption

Temporal Component

Mitigation Preparedness Response Recovery

Properties

Examples of Applications of Resilience

Contribution to Freight Transportation System

ResiliencePhysical Infrastructure Managing OrganizationUser

Redundancy Availability of multiple & alternate routing options

Multiple information sources & points of delivery

Multiple parts & materials suppliers ; information backed up on distributed servers

Promotes flexibility ; supports robustness

Autonomy The ability of highway system to function when air space closed; independent signal controls for each intersection

Independence of functional units in an organization, e.g. approvals & decision making can be independent of established hierarchies

Independence of functional units in an enterprise, e.g. procurement, billing, manufacturing, & distribution

Supports system operability despite the failure of individual system components ; supports robustness

Collaboration Working partnership between federal, state, regional an d local public agencies to plan, construct and operate the full freight transportation network to optimize system use

Good internal communication across divisions & external communication with system users ; leadership across all levels of the organization

Public-private partnerships to build relationships between organizations

Supports innovative problem solving, reduces miscommunications, spreads risk across groups Promotes network, versus local, freight system optimization and resiliency.

Properties

Examples of Applications of Resilience

Contribution to Freight Transportation System

ResiliencePhysical Infrastructure

DimensionManaging Organization

DimensionUser

Dimension

Efficiency Network designs that reduce travel time between origin and destination

Use of effective mechanisms to prioritize spending within the organization and on infrastructure

Coordination across the supply chain with relationships built across the different parties

Allows resources to be spent on activities or projects that provide most benefit to the users

Adaptability Designed with short life-spans & the intent for regular replacement or for the capability to expand capacity without total facility reconstruction ; ability to assume diversity functions (e.g. adaptable-use HOV lanes)

Familiarity of roles and responsibilities across levels of the organization ; cross-trained employees ; leadership can be engaged at all levels. Defined roles and protocols during disruption and recovery phases.

Ability to postpone decision making & shipping ; build-to-order business model

Promotes flexibility & system efficiency ; supports robustness

Interdependence Seamless mode transfers ; intermodal facilities

Relationships are established across separate, but related agencies & within agencies ; mutual understanding of the value & benefit from interaction

Standardization of parts & interchangeability

Exhibits smooth connections and transitions across parts of the system ; promotes system efficiency ; spreads risk across the system to reduce risk

Agenda

Enterprise behavior Infrastructure connectivity and flow Washington Potatoes

WSDOT Phase 1 Recommendations

1.Identify and Segment Customers of the Transportation System

2.Identify and quantify the objective of a FSR Plan for this region

3.Conduct a vulnerability assessment of the region’s transportation network

4.Create public/private collaboration mechanisms

5.Determine what regulatory and policy procedures need to be put into place

6.Agree on priority and trigger setting processes

7.Conduct a small-scale in-house simulation

8.Test the plan with a large scale simulation

Enterprise Behavior

As users of the system enterprises also contribute to system performance

Better enterprise planning creates better outcomes

Understanding enterprise behavior allows us to understand the current behavior and triggers

Types of Disruptions

Supply Demand Administrative Resource availability Transportation

STRATEGIES CATEGORY REPORTED BY (ENTERPRISES )

Relationships Enabler A, D, F, G, J

Use of Information & Technology Enabler B, D, G,H, I

Communication Enabler A, B, D,F, G

Flexible Culture Enabler A, F, H

Flexible Transportation Tactic A, F, G, H

C-TPAT Certification Tactic A, E

DC Structure, Size of Network Tactic D,E, H

Resilient Nature of Suppliers Tactic F

Expedited Freight Tactic A, D,H, I

Use of Multiple Ports/Carriers Tactic B, E, H

Employees Overseas Tactic B

Extra Capacity at DC Tactic C

Off-Peak Deliveries Tactic E

Domestic Sourcing Tactic E

Premium Transportation Tactic H, I, J

Summary

Response to transportation disruption correlated with level of other risks inherent in supply chain

Tactics decrease efficiency and competitiveness outside of disrupted periods

Operational and communications solutions offer benefit in most cases

Infrastructure

GIS Tool Development

Intermodal layer for each mode and terminal type

Cost functions to capture “cost” of flow along a link

Logic to ensure connectivity and capture capacity constraints

Can measure transportation impacts of capacity reductions and closures using scenario analysis

Complexity of Movements

Case Studies

WA Potatoes Fresh and processed Fresh to market Estimate consequences of 24 hour closure of I-90

WA Fuel Terminal racks to diesel stations Identify infrastructure weaknesses and

dependencies Identify priority access routes

Goals

Estimate the truck trips per day within the state of Washington that are necessary to move potatoes between production locations, processing facilities, and consumption locations.

Consider a disruption to the transportation network, and identify the impact on these truck trips.

Motivation for the Potato Case Study Exercise the GIS tool

Identify the level of effort and data collection challenges of this approach to understanding the impacts from disruptions

Understand the movements of potatoes in the state

Potato Data Elements

Potato prices at field, retailer purchase price, and retail price

Origins and destinations for potatoes and potato products Volumes of potatoes for each origin and destination for all

potato products Quantity of potato loss Ratios of fresh potatoes to potato products Percentage of potatoes processed into each product in

each growing region Volume of potatoes held in a truckload for each product Location and type of potato processors Mode split Exit points for potatoes destined for locations outside the

state

Data Sources

AC Neilson United States Department of Agriculture

Market News National Agriculture Statistics

Washington State Potato Commission/WSU Survey Discussions with ConAgra Foods/Lamb Weston State of Washington Potato Committee (SWPC):

Disposition

Comments on potato production Modeled potato production as 3 regions, all trips

originate in centroids of these regions 94% capture rate

  Skagit Valley Upper Basin Lower Basin

Production (Short Tons) 162,742 1,972,626 2,197,012

Recovery Rate 0.94 0.94 0.94

Total Purchased 152,977 1,854,268 2,065,191

     

Percent Fresh 86% 14% 14%

Percent Frozen 0 73% 73%

Percent Dehydrated 14% 11% 11%

Percent Chips 0 2% 2%

Potato Truck Trips

Under normal conditions potato trucks generate just over 11,000 truck miles each day

 Truck Trips per daySkagit

ValleyUpper

BasinLower

Basin

Fresh 16.79 28.2 31.73

Frozen 0 70.46 81.14

Dehydrated 0 3.98 4.25

Chip 0 4.48 5.04

Disruption

Close the Cascade mountain passes on I-90, Highway 2, and Highway 12 for one day to replicate the impact of a severe winter storm.

SR410 and Highway 20 are closed seasonally.

Re-route the potato trucks to the next shortest path between their origin and destination.

20% of all truck trips cross the Cascades.

I90 carries most traffic

Normal Conditions

  Truck Trips Fresh Frozen Dehy Chips

Hwy 2 East 4.3        

Skagit to Moses Lake   0.13      

Skagit to Spokane   1.40      

Skagit to Warden   0.13      

Skagit to other US State (excluding Oregon or California)   2.62      

Hwy 2 West 1.8        

Upper Basin to Stanwood   0.40 1.32 0.06 0.06

I-90 East 1.2        

Skagit to Kennewick   0.50      

Skagit to Yakima   0.37      

Skagit to Grandview   0.37      

I-90 West 32.4        

Upper Basin to Seattle   0.56 1.83 0.08 0.09

Upper Basin to Tacoma   0.47 1.52 0.07 0.07

Upper Basin to Auburn   0.56 1.83 0.08 0.09

Upper Basin to Port of Seattle   3.70 9.04 0.52 0.59

Lower Basin to Seattle   1.28 4.15 0.17 0.20

Lower Basin to Stanwood   0.92 2.99 0.12 0.15

Lower Basin to Port of Seattle   0.35 0.84 0.05 0.05

410 West 10.6        

Lower Basin to Tacoma   1.06 3.46 0.14 0.17

Lower Basin to Auburn   1.28 4.15 0.17 0.20

Eastbound favors fresh and northern

routes

Westbound traffic70% frozen

Disruption

  Truck Trips Fresh Frozen Dehy Chips

SR 14 East 5.5        

Skagit to Moses Lake 0.13      

Skagit to Spokane 1.40      

Skagit to Warden 0.13      

Skagit to other US State (excluding Oregon or California) 2.62      

Skagit to Kennewick 0.50      

Skagit to Yakima 0.37      

Skagit to Grandview 0.37      

SR 14 West  44.8        

Upper Basin to Stanwood 0.40 1.32 0.06 0.06

Upper Basin to Seattle 0.56 1.83 0.08 0.09

Upper Basin to Tacoma 0.47 1.52 0.07 0.07

Upper Basin to Auburn 0.56 1.83 0.08 0.09

Upper Basin to Port of Seattle 3.70 9.04 0.52 0.59

Lower Basin to Seattle 1.28 4.15 0.17 0.20

Lower Basin to Stanwood 0.92 2.99 0.12 0.15

Lower Basin to Port of Seattle 0.35 0.84 0.05 0.05

Lower Basin to Tacoma 1.06 3.46 0.14 0.17

Lower Basin to Auburn 1.28 4.15 0.17 0.20

All rerouted onto SR14

Impacts 50 trucks per day, 45

westbound and 5eastbound

Total truck-milesincrease to about

21,000 miles per day, an increase

of 78%

Greatest impactto frozen potatoes

traveling to Westernmarkets

Estimated value of a truckload

Grower Retailer Consumer

Fresh $1,000 $2,000 - $8,000

$7,000 - $50,000

Frozen $40,000

Dehydrated $60,000

Chip $20,000-$40,000

Economic Implications

Direct Costs Driver wages, fuel consumption, vehicle operating

costs $13,722 to $32,018 per day or $275 to $640

dollars per truck Indirect Costs

Missed business opportunities, spoiled products, extra transportation costs