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Tonight’s Agenda

Nov. Market Recap

Holiday Shopping/ Q4 Economic Data

Fiscal Cliff Takeover

Investment Competition winners

Past 2 Weeks:

2.6%

S&P Recap: 1.08%

Fiscal Cliff talks are holding markets

hostage

Blowout Black Friday!

Blowout Black Friday!

Total black Friday sales: 59 Billion

American Eagle, Macy’s, Victoria’s Secret and J.C. Penney saw the largest increase of in-store visits on Black Friday compared to their November average.

In-store foot traffic increased by a factor greater than 4X to these four retailers.

Gun Shopping This year on Black Friday the FBI fielded 154,873

calls for guns, a roughly 20% increase from last year's previous one-day record of 129,166, according to bureau records.

What does this indicate about the fiscal uncertainty?

Or is this with the uncertainty that Obama will regulate gun control more?

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2012/11/26/black-friday-gun-sales/1727409/

Cyber Monday ScorecardWed 28 Nov 12 | 06:08 AM ET

Cyber Monday Online sales rose 17% on Cyber Monday

compared with 2011, overall spending up 16% at $16.4 million

Average order dropped 6.6% to $185.12 compared with 2011, but average items per order increased 14% to 8.34

“Retailers discounted more. They knew there were savvy shoppers online looking for deals… But even with that additional merchandise, the average order volume fell.” – Jay Henderson, Strategic Director for the Smart Commerce, IBM

Retail Sales Department

stores sales were up 43.1%

Apparel sales were up 25.3%

Home goods sales were up 26.8%

**Mobile Spending Easy Leader

Mobile spending is estimated to have contributed 13%+ of sales this season

Mobile is obvious leader over Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter, which generated virtually 0% of sales on Cyber Monday

Case-Shiller Index Composite of single-family home price

indices for the nine U.S Census divisions, updated quarterly

National Composite up 3.6% in third quarter

Cities with positive monthly returns; Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland and New York

Atlanta, Detroit and Las Vegas remain below their January 2000 levels

Jobless Report

393,000 filed for initial jobless claims during the week

Down from 416,0o0 the previous weeks

First decline since Hurricane Sandy

Pre-storm average was about 370,000

4-Week Moving Average

Personal Income and Outlays Personal Income increased $.4 billion or

less that .1%

Economists forecasted a .2% increase

Personal consumption expenditures decreased $20.2 billion, or .2%

With inflation, consumer spending fell .3% in October after the .4% rise in September

Consumer Confidence Report

Confidence steady

Job market flat

Housing expectations up

Prior Prior Revised

Consensus Consensus Range

Actual

Consumer Confidence

- Level

72.2 73.1 72.8 65.0 to 77.0

73.7

New Home Sales

Prior Prior Revised

Consensus

Consensus Range Actual

New Home Sales - Level - SAAR

389 K 369 K 0.387 K0.360 K to 0.401

K368 K

Had been bright spot Not anymore

Prices down 4.2%

October Durable Goods Orders

Prior Month Change (September)

Estimated Change

Actual Change

New Orders (month/month change)

9.9% -0.8% 0.0%

New Orders (year/year change)

2.5% 2.3%

Excluding Transportation (m/m)

2.0% -0.4% 1.5%

Excluding Transportation(yr/yr)

-1.6% -2.3%

• Beat expectations, but numbers are not great

• Transportation negatively influenced October data

• Transportation component fell 3.1% after a 29.7% increase in September

Durable Goods• Strength in all major industries, except transportation

• Suggest manufacturing is not strongly improving

Chicago PMI Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures financial

activity based off of managers’ purchases of goods and services

Above breakeven of 50, indicating growth

Backlog orders down for 4th month in a row

October Index Estimated Change

November Index

Business Barometer Index

49.9 +.4 50.4

Chicago PMI Led by employment and production growth

New orders down (Fiscal Cliff, Hurricane Sandy)

Santelli vs. Liesman

Round 36

Santelli: Don’t give me the switcheroo!

Fiscal Cliff RewindFri 30 Nov 2012 10:02 AM

Fiscal Cliff Recap- Talks Going Nowhere

Democrats want 1.6T in new taxes on income over $250,000 right now and spending cuts later.

Republicans will do tax raises but only if accompanied by entitlement reform now. (Social Security, Medicare)

White house Fiscal Cliff Offer

2011 Federal Budget

S.S., Medicare, and Medicaid accounted for 43% of the Budget

2012 Fall Investment Competition Winners

Top 5 best portfolio balances

Investment Competition Prizes

Last place: Free entry to Spring Competition.

Investment Competition Prizes

5th place: $25 Gift Card- Joe Hudson

12% return

Investment Competition Prizes4th place: 75 dollar Gift card Charlie Haggett- 33% Return

Investment Competition Prizes3rd Place: Apple TV- Leo Franz61% return

Investment Competition Prizes2nd Place: Beats HeadphonesEric Woodraska - 90% return

Investment Competition Prizes1st place: IPAD Mini- Tingting Gao

103% return

Good luck on finals !

Good luck on Finals!

Keep an eye out for emails!

Admin rolls next semester