Tomorrow’s megawatts and negawatts · 2019. 12. 4. · Campaign effectiveness – Results...
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DMS: 3323465 33 Tomorrow’s megawatts and negawatts Jim Mitchell Managing Director, Synergy May 2010
Transcript of Tomorrow’s megawatts and negawatts · 2019. 12. 4. · Campaign effectiveness – Results...
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Tomorrow’s megawatts and negawatts
Jim MitchellManaging Director, SynergyMay 2010
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Megawatts…what we need today
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Western Australia’s energy market
Isolated network
Approximately one million customers
Small, ugly, lumpy load
Fuel mix – 60% gas, 35% coal, 5% renewables
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Electricity Generation
6000MW of new capacity will be needed in the SWIS by 2030
Drivers:
Growing demand
SWIS Capacity Forecast
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4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
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2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
Capacity Year
MW
Verve Energy Non-Verve New Entrant Plant
Average Cost (@ $1.7 million/MW) > $10B (in real dollars)
Predominantly OCGT &
renewablesPlant retirement
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Electricity Generation
Plant retirement
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Drivers:
Growing demand
RECS requirement
TOTAL SWIS CAPACITY BY FUEL TYPE
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2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
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2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
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2033
Capacity Year Commencing
MW
Coal Gas Distillate DSM + Renewables
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Domestic Gas Supply & Demand Forecasts
WA Domestic Supply Position
Forecast WA DomgasSupply vs Demand, TJ/d
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Supp
ly (T
J/d)
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1,200
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1,800
Existing Supply MacedonReindeer JulimarPluto WheatstoneGorgon OtherContract Demand Potential Demand
EXISTING SUPPLY
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Potential Mid – West Demand
Mines
Karara Iron Ore (375MW)
Extension Hill (120MW)
Jack’s Hill (60MW)
Other miscellaneous mines (>300MW)
Infrastructure
Okajee Port
Rail lines
Town and industry expansion
Demand from all segments of the market forecast to grow – will require an additional 39MW
N.B. It is not expected that all will proceed to operational status
TOTAL POTENTIAL REGIONAL DEMAND FORECAST: 861MW
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Renewables
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Renewable Energy
Expanded Renewable Energy Target: 20% by 2020
Number of GWh Australia originally needed to meet MRET target
Number of GWh Australia now needs to meet under RET target introduced August 2009
Synergy's Forecast REC Liabilities
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500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
RECs
Liability from old MRET Liability from new RET
Four-fold Increase In
REC Requirement
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Indicative Additional Costs of Renewable Energy
Additional capex cost of renewables in SWIS
Additional REC requirement by 2020 2,800,000 RECsMW of wind equivalent 1065 MWCapex @ $2.5 m per MW $ 2,664 mCapex cost of balancing at 40% OCGT per MW wind $ 511 mNetwork spend @ 1/3 rd capex $ 1,048 mTotal $ 4,223 m
Notes –
2020 requirement vs present announced contracts
Assumes new build to meet requirement
Source: Strategy & Growth 2009 14
Renewable energy creates broader costs than simply the headline cost of generation
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Cost stack
Electricity Cost I ndex
Generat ion Network Environmental Imposts Retail Gross Profit
Retail Costs
Network costs willincrease
RET& ClimateChange will increase
environmentalimposts
Fuel costs willIncrease generation
costs
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Climate Change
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Customers demanding more green
Renewables
Federal Renewable energy target of 20% by 2020
Synergy utilising wind and biomass
Collgar Wind Farm (206MW facility, 111 Turbines)
MOUs signed for wave & geothermal
EOI for solar
CPRS
No national consensus…but it will come
Carbon offsets - 6.5 million trees planted
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Generation Challenges
• Locating suitable sites for new generation
• Environmental & Zoning Approval
• Near Load Demand Centres
• Access to Water
• Access to Fuel
• Transmission
Conclusion – Wholesale power prices increasing
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Household Power Prices Increasing
Customers ambivalent about energy use – no price signals
49.6% increase in 15 months
WA Household Energy Price
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Negawatts…what we don’t need today
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The cheapest tonne of abatementis the tonne you do not emit
…and the cheapest megawatt is the one you don’t use!
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The power to change is in the
hands of consumers
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Synergybelieves a substantial
change in energy consumption can only be achieved through a change in customer
behaviour
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Behavioural change
Fundamental to achieving long term efficiency benefits
Energy efficiency
Enablers:
Perth Solar City trial – 106,000 homes involved
Synergy trialling:
Time of use pricing (6,000 customers)
In-home display devices (2,200 customers)
Demand management product
Direct load control (700 customers)
Synergy’s new billing and CRM system provides market segmentation
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Synergy’s Switch Campaign
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Campaign effectiveness –Results exceeded targets in all areas Awareness of 52% vs 20% target
33% cut through vs 7% target
51% ad empathy vs 35% target
88% understood energy conservation message
41% likely to change behaviour as a result of campaign
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Energy Efficiency…beyond the Switch Off
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ENERGY EFFICIENCY
STANDARDS &EFFICIENT APPLIANCES
WEATHERISATION
ENERGY AUDITS
BUILDING STANDARDS
LOAD CONTROL
ENERGY LOANS
PRICING REGIME
CUSTOMER DATAINTERFACE
EMBEDDED GENERATION
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Visible Signals Important
Tuesday
Friday
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Benefits of Energy Efficiency
less investment needed in generation
less investment needed in transmission
mitigate future fuel needs
Energy efficiency changes customers usage behaviour through a change to customer load profile. This leads to;
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& therefore lower cost of electricity to consumers and less investment cost to government
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California Energy Efficiency
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California EnergyEfficiency
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California Energy Efficiency
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Per Capita Consumption of Electricity (MWh/annum)
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Energy Efficiency Trends CaliforniaSituation Analysis
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Lighting 56%HVAC 17%Refrigeration 13%Pumps 6%Fans 2%Drives 2%Comp Air 2%Misc/Other 2%
Energy Saving Potential
Value of EE is assessed in terms of avoided costs. Avoided costs reflect the benefits associated with deferred generation, transmission, and distribution as well as mitigation of externalities such as carbon emissions
Value of EE is used to derive both economic (or cost-effective) and technical market potential
EE market potential studies analyse market saturation by identifying appliance saturation, building stock, economic growth conditions, customer demographics, and technology assessments
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Smart Grid
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The Smart Grid Concept
The underlying ‘Smart Grid’ distribution network that links generators & consumers
‘Traditional’ Generation feeding into the Smart Grid
Embedded generation (ie at consumer’s site) can help reduce demand on the whole grid.
Renewable Generation feeding into the Smart Grid
Embedded generation that produces energy at off-peak times can be battery stored for use at high peak demand times
Business or Residential on-site generation is viable
Communication networks in the Grid enable remote repair, control & monitoring
Consumers can change their consumption behaviour in response to real time communications over the internet or via phone telecommunications & can remotely control their appliances to ‘switch on & off’
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Benefits of Smart Grid
Optimisation of generation and network and reduced spend relative to a non smart grid scenario
Smart Gris is one of the enablers to extend energy efficiency and increased supply reliability
Lower costs to supply of electricity
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Thank You
