Tom Peters Seminar2000: Distinct or … Extinct Colombo 4 December 2000
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Transcript of Tom Peters Seminar2000: Distinct or … Extinct Colombo 4 December 2000
“In 25 years, you’ll probably be able to get the
sum total of all human knowledge on a personal
device.”Greg Blonder, VC [was Chief Technical
Adviser for Corporate Strategy @ AT&T] [Barron’s 13.11.2000]
NOW THAT’S B-I-G!
“The period 2000-2002 will bring the single greatest change in
worldwide economic and business conditions since we came down from the trees.”
David Schneider & Grady Means, MetaCapitalism
“The corporation as we know it, which is now 120 years old, is
not likely to survive the next 25 years. Legally and
financially, yes, but not structurally and economically.”
Peter Drucker, Business 2.0 (08.00)
Pentium III 800MHz: $42,893.00/#Hermes Scarf: $1,964.29
Saving Private Ryan on DVD: $874.75Mercedes-Benz: $18.98
Hot-rolled steel: $0.19
Source: Fortune (3.20.00)
“I genuinely believe we are living through the greatest intellectual moment in history.”
Matt Ridley, Genome
The Kotler Doctrine:
1965-1980: R.A.F.(Ready.Aim.Fire.)
1980-1995: R.F.A.(Ready.Fire!Aim.)
1995-????: F.F.F.(Fire!Fire!Fire!)
“It used to be that the big
ate the small. Now the fast eat the slow.”Geoff Yang, IVP/ (Institutional
Venture Partners)
Forget>“Learn”
“The problem is never how to get new, innovative
thoughts into your mind,
but how to get the old ones out.”
Dee Hock
“It is generally much easier to kill an
organization than change it
substantially.” Kevin Kelly, Out of Control
“Acquisitions are about buying market share.
Our challenge is to create markets. There is a big difference.”
Peter Job, CEO, Reuters
Headline: “Bank of America to Cut … 10,000 Jobs”
“Middle-level and senior managers are expected to be
the principal targets of the job cutbacks.”
Source: The New York Times (07.29.2000)
The Pincer 5
“Destructive” entrepreneurs/ Global Competition
“White Collar Robots”
THE INTERNET! [E.g.: GM + Ford + DaimlerChrysler]
Global Outsourcing [E.g.: India, Mexico]
Speed!!
Cisco, Dell =
Brand-owning companies who sell Customer
Satisfaction
Source: David Schneider & Grady Means, MetaCapitalism [e.g.: Cisco owns 2 of 38
assembly plants]
RR on “Assetless” [J.B.] Sara Lee
“The most profitable businesses in the future will act as knowledge brokers, linking insights into what’s available
with insights into the customer’s individual needs
and preferences.”
Advance Paradigm
Data on 165,000,000 prescriptions per year; docs and insurers have access to
records
Reduces med errors; saves $2.88 per scrip [prescribing errors]; docs save
$14,000 per year in review time
Rev in ’99: $2B; $477M in ’98Source: Business Week (09.00)
Hong Kong: Prototypical “Virtual State”
83% Service8% Mfg.
Source: Richard Rosecrance, The Rise of the Virtual State
“The virtual corporation is research, development, design, marketing, financing, legal, and
other headquarters functions with few or no manufacturing
capabilities – a company with a head but no body.”
Richard Rosecrance, The Rise of the Virtual State
The “Futility of Size”
“[Regarding size] the new process of virtualization fully asserts itself.
Virtualization is the recognition that territorial size does not solve
economic problems. … Economic access must become the substitute for
increasing domain.”
Richard Rosecrance, The Rise of the Virtual State
“At the ultimate stage, competition among nations will be competition among educational systems, for the most productive and richest countries will be those with the best education and training.”
Richard Rosecrance, The Rise of the Virtual State
“Elementary and high school teachers should be
rewarded as patient creators of high-value capital in the
United States and elsewhere.”
Richard Rosecrance, The Rise of the Virtual State
“Our education system is a second-rate, factory-style organization, pumping out
obsolete information in obsolete ways. Schools are simply not
connected to the future of the kids they’re responsible for.”
Alvin Toffler, Business 2.0 (09.00)
“You really got to me. So many of our information technology projects take on a life of their own, and I know they’ll never end up as more than ‘mediocre successes.’ ”
CEO, F100 financial services company (10-98)
Silicon Valley Success [Failure?] Secrets
“Pursuit of risk”: 4 of 20 in V.C. portfolio go bust; 6 lose money;
6 do okay; 3 do well; 1 hits the jackpot
Source: The Economist
“The fundamental unit of the new economy is not the corporation, but the individual. Tasks aren’t assigned and controlled through a stable chain of command but are carried out autonomously by
independent contractors - e-lancers - who join together in fluid and temporary networks to sell goods and services. When the job is done, the network dissolves and its members become independent again, circulating through the economy, seeking the next assignment.”
Thomas Malone and Robert Laubacher
“If there is nothing very special about your work, no matter how hard you apply
yourself, you won’t get noticed, and that
increasingly means you won’t get paid much either.”
Michael Goldhaber, Wired
Minimum New Work SurvivalSkillsKit2000
MasteryRolodex Obsession (vert. to horiz. “loyalty”)
Finishing SkillsEntrepreneurial Instinct
CEO/Leader/BusinesspersonMistress of Improv
Sense of HumorIntense Appetite for Technology
Groveling Before the YoungEmbracing “Marketing”
Passion for Renewal
[“My ancestors were printers in Amsterdam from 1510 or so until 1750 and during that entire time
they didn’t have to learn anything new.”
Peter Drucker, Business 2.0 (08.22.00)]
“You must realize that how you invest your human capital matters as much as how you
invest your financial capital. Its rate of return determines your future options. Take a job for what it teaches you, not for what it pays. Instead of a potential employer asking, ‘Where do you see yourself in 5 years?’
you’ll ask, ‘If I invest my mental assets with you for 5 years, how much will they
appreciate? How much will my portfolio of career options grow?’ ”
Stan Davis & Christopher Meyer, futureWEALTH
“The average knowledge worker will outlive the average employing organization. This is the first time in history that’s happened. … So
the center of gravity of higher education is shifting from the education of the young to the
continuing education of adults.”
Peter Drucker, Business 2.0 (08.22.00)
“Knowledge becomes obsolete incredibly fast. The continuing
professional education of adults is the No. 1 industry
in the next 30 years … mostly on line.”
Peter Drucker,Business 2.0 (22August2000)
“When land was the productive resource, nations battled over it. The same is
happening now for talented people.”
Stan Davis & Christopher Meyer, futureWEALTH
“The market’s being divided up right now. We’re in a
tough competition [with the U.S. and the U.K.] for
the best brains.”Gerhard Schroeder, on Germany’s new
tech immigration policy[Frankfurter Allgemeine/06.02.00]
“Seller’s Market”: Tomorrow’s Headline*
“Molecular biologists are up 3 points, economists
down 1/4, in moderate trading”
*futureWEALTH, Stan Davis and
Christopher Meyer
From “1, 2 or out” [JW] to … “Best talent in each
industry segment to build best proprietary intangibles” [EM]
Source: Ed Michaels, War for Talent (17.05.00)
“We believe companies can increase their market cap 50 percent in 3 years. Steve
Macadam at Georgia Pacific changed 20 of his 40 box plant managers to put
more talented, higher paid managers in charge. He increased
profitability from $25 million to $80 million in 2 years.”
Ed Michaels, War for Talent (17.05.00)
So-so plant manager, $1M per year. Pay: $110,000 plus $60,000. Top plant manager,
$3-4M per year. Pay: $135,000 plus $90,000. Net:
$2-3M for $50K.
Source: Ed Michaels et al., The War for Talent, re Georgia Pacific
“Top performing companies are two to four times more likely
than the rest to pay what it takes to prevent losing
top performers.”
Ed Michaels, War for Talent (17.05.00)
“The Rise of the Teen Guru”
“They’re brilliant, ambitious, and almost intuitively gifted at technology. A new generation
of whiz kids are gaining unprecedented power and
authority.”Source: Cover story, Brill’s Content, 7-8/00
“This is the Age of Ageism: The real innovator’s dilemma isn’t ‘disruptive technologies;’ it’s
the relentless rise of the quasi-adolescents who wield them.”
Michael Schrage
“Talented people are less likely to wait their turn. We used to
view young people as trainees; now they are authorities. Arguably
this is the first time the older generation can – and must – leverage the younger generation very early in their careers.”
Ed Michaels, War for Talent (17.05.00)
Gen-X Demands
Love a new challenge. Want responsibility early. Crave freedom, independence and control. Are obsessed with
building their Human Capital. Value more than work. See a very
compressed career timeline.Source: Ed Michaels et al., The War for Talent
“Where do good new ideas come from? That’s simple! From
differences. Creativity comes from unlikely juxtapositions. The best way to maximize differences is to
mix ages, cultures and disciplines.”
Nicholas Negroponte
“Diversity defines the health and wealth of nations in a new century.
Mighty is the mongrel. … The hybrid is hip. The impure, the mélange, the adulterated, the
blemished, the rough, the black-and-blue, the mix-and-match – these people are inheriting
the earth. Mixing is the new norm. Mixing trumps isolation. It spawns creativity,
nourishes the human spirit, spurs economic growth
and empowers nations.”
G. Pascal Zachary, The Global Me: New Cosmopolitans and the Competitive Edge
“Capitalism and the conditions for creating wealth have changed in ways that play to the strengths of hybrid
individuals, organizations and nations. And those that wish to profit from changing economic conditions must view hybridity as their first and best option. This bold
claim warrants an explanation. The ability to apply knowledge to new situations is the most valued
currency in today’s economy. Highly creative people … are misfits on some level. They tend to question
accepted views and consider contradictory ones. This appreciation defines the mongrel mentality. Strangers
instinctively question things that natives take for granted. Many things strike them as odd or stupid. …”
G. Pascal Zachary, The Global Me
“Tomorrow belongs to women.”
Helen Fisher, The First Sex: The Natural Talents of Women and How They Are
Changing the World
“AS LEADERS, WOMEN RULE: New Studies find that female managers
outshine their male counterparts an almost
every measure”Title, Special Report, Business Week, 20.11.00
“On average, women and men possess a number of different innate skills. And current trends suggest that many sectors of the twenty-
first-century economic community are going to need the natural
talents of women.Helen Fisher, The First Sex: The Natural Talents of
Women and How They are Changing the World
Women’s Natural Talents and the New World of Work
Interactive style of managementProclivity to share information
Need to strive for group consensusDesire to empower workers
Comfort with ambiguitySeek win-win solutions to thorny
problems
Source: Helen Fisher, The First Sex
“TAKE THIS QUICK QUIZ: Who manages more things at once? Who puts more effort into their appearance? Who usually takes care of the details? Who finds it
easier to meet new people? Who asks more questions in a conversation? Who is a better
listener? Who has more interest in communication skills? Who is more inclined to get involved?
Who encourages harmony and agreement? Who has better intuition? Who works with a longer ‘to do’ list? Who enjoys a recap to the day’s events? Who is
better at keeping in touch with others?”
Source: Selling Is a Woman’s Game: 15 Powerful Reasons Why Women Can Outsell Men, Nicki Joy &
Susan Kane-Benson
The Cracked Ones Let in the Light
“Our business needs a massive transfusion of talent, and talent, I believe, is most likely to be found
among non-conformists.”David Ogilvy
Attributes of Those Who “Made” the 10th Grade History Book
–Committed!
–Determined to make a difference!
–Focused!
–Passionate!
– Irrational about their life’s project!
–Ahead of their time / Paradigm busters!
– Impatient! / Action Obsessed
Attributes of Those Who “Made” the 10th Grade
History Book –Made lots of people mad!
–Flouted the chain of command!
–Creative / Quirky / Peculiar! / Rebels! / Irreverent!
–Masters of improv / Thrive on chaos / Exploit chaos!
Attributes of Those Who “Made” the 10th Grade History Book
–Forgiveness > Permission
–Bone honest!
–Flawed as the dickens!
– “In touch” with their followers’ aspirations
–Damn good at what they do!
“Firms will not ‘manage the careers’ of their employees. They
will provide opportunities to enable the employee to develop
identity and adaptability and
thus be in charge of his or her own career.”
Tim Hall et al., “The New Protean Career Contract”
Insights from 80,000 managers:
“People don’t change much.“Don’t waste time trying to put in
what was left out.“Try to draw out what was left in.
“That is hard enough.”
Source: Marcus Buckingham & Curt Coffman, First, Break All the Rules: What the World’s
Greatest Managers Do Differently
“We have transitioned from an asset-based strategy
to a talent-based strategy.”
Jeff Skilling, COO, Enron
The Top 5 “Revelations”
Better talent wins.
Talent management is my job as leader.
Talented leaders are looking for the moon and stars.
Over-deliver on people’s dreams – they are volunteers.
Pump talent in at all levels, from all conceivable sources, all the time.
Source: Ed Michaels et al., The War for Talent
New Economy: Was-Is • Pine-paneled Office• Address: 1 Big Man Plaza• Secretary• Suit • Formal • Rank conscious• Pretense (“Failures are
for fools.”)• I love “Yes men”• Self-contained
• Seat 9B, UA233• Address: [email protected]• Typing: 60 WPM• Casual M-F• Approachable• We are a HOT Team • Screwing up is as normal
as breathing• I love Misfits!• I love partners
Renewal = The Weird 10 = The “High S.D.” Enterprise/Individual
Pioneer [Weird] Acquisitions
Pioneer Customers & Alliance Partners [Measure the Portfolio’s S.D.]
Divide & Conquer/“Sell-by” [Lessons from the Bees, Sir Richard, Gary H.]
Pioneer Assignments/Pioneer Projects [F2F & K2K]
Hire Weird [Diversity]/Train Weird/Promote Weird/Pay Gobs & Promote Fast & Cherish “Six Sigma” Talent/Appoint a Weird Board
Weed Un-weird [“One Sigma” “Talent,” etc.]
Hang out with Weird [Univ. of Weird]/Lunch with Weird/Read & Surf Weird/Vacate Weird
R.A.F. to R.F.A. to F.F.F. [O.O.D.A. Loops/Prototyping Mania]
Sense of Humor [Rhapsodize Over Thine Failures]
Re-enforce a “Culture of Disrespect”/Piracy
Saviors-in-Waiting
Disgruntled CustomersFringe CompetitorsRogue Employees
Edge SuppliersWayne Burkan, Wide Angle Vision: Beat the
Competition by Focusing on Fringe Competitors, Lost Customers, and Rogue
Employees
Quality Not Enough!
“While everything may be better, it is also increasingly the
same.”Paul Goldberger on retail, “The Sameness
of Things,” The New York Times
“We make over three new product announcements a
day. Can you remember them?
Our customers can’t!”Carly Fiorina
“The ‘surplus society’ has a surplus of
similar companies, employing
similar people, with similar educational backgrounds, working in
similar jobs, coming up with similar
ideas, producing similar things, with
similar prices and similar quality.”
Kjell Nordstrom and Jonas Ridderstrale, Funky Business
“Our strategies must be tied to leading edge
customers on the attack. If we focus on the defensive
customers, we will also become defensive.”
John Roth, CEO, Nortel
“Future-defining customers may account for only 2% to 3% of your total, but they represent a crucial window on the
future.”Adrian Slywotzky, Mercer Consultants
Tomorrow Today: Cisco!
90% of $20B (=$50M/day)75% mfg. outsourced; 50% of orders routed to supplier who ships direct
Gross margin: 65%; Net margin: 28%
Annual savings in service and support from customer
self-management: $550M
Tomorrow Today: Cisco!
90% of $20B; save $550M
C.Sat e >> C.Sat H
Customer Engineer Chat Rooms/Collaborative
Design ($1B “free” consulting) (45,000 customer problems a week solved via
customer collaboration)
WebWorld = Everything
Web as a way to run your business’ innardsWeb as connector for your entire supply-demand chain Web as “spider’s web” which re-conceives the industry
Web/B2B as ultimate wake-up call to “commodity producers”
Web as the scourge of slack, inefficiency, sloth, bureaucracy, poor customer data
Web as an Encompassing Way of LifeWeb = Everything (P.D. to after-sales)
Web forces you to focus on what you do bestWeb as entrée, at any size, to World’s Best at Everything
as next door neighbor
Message: eCommerce is not a technology play! It is a
relationship, partnership, organizational and
communications play, made possible by new
technologies.
Message: There is no such thing as an effective B2B or
Internet-supply chain strategy in a low-trust,
bottlenecked-communication, six-layer
organization.
“There is no use trying,” said Alice. “One can’t believe impossible things.”
“I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was
your age, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I’ve
believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”
Lewis Carroll
All Equal Except …
“At Sony we assume that all products of our competitors have basically the same
technology, price, performance and
features. Design is the only thing that differentiates one product from another in the
marketplace.”Norio Ohga
“We don’t have a good language to talk about this kind of thing. In most people’s
vocabularies, design means veneer. … But to me, nothing could be further from the
meaning of design. Design is the fundamental soul
of a man-made creation.”Steve Jobs
THE BASE CASE: I am a design fanatic. Personally, though not “artistic,” I’m a cool-stuff guy. I love what
I love and I hate what I hate. [Openly.] But it goes [much] further, far beyond the personal. Design has
become a professional obsession. I - SIMPLY – BELIEVE THAT DESIGN PER SE IS
THE PRINCIPAL REASON FOR EMOTIONAL ATTACHMENT [or detachment] RELATIVE TO A
PRODUCT OR SERVICE OR EXPERIENCE. Design, as I see it, is arguably the #1 determinant of
whether a product-service-experience stands out … or doesn’t. Furthermore, it’s “one of those things” …
that damn few companies put – consistently – on the front burner.
?????????
Home Furnishings … 94%Vacations … 92%
Houses … 91%Bank Account … 89%
Health Care … 80%Consumer Electronics … 51%
Cars … 50%+/80%Etc.
Women … 50+%(!!!) of Web users; 6 of 10 new users; 83% of wired women are primary decision makers for family
healthcare, finances, education.
Source: Business Week; Jupiter Communications
“Men and women don’t think the same way, don’t communicate the same
way, don’t buy for the same reasons.”
“He simply wants the transaction to take place. She’s interested in creating a relationship. Every place women go,
they make connections.”
EVEolution
“Women don’t buy
brands. They join them.”
Faith Popcorn, EVEolution
STATEMENT OF PHILOSOPHY: I am a businessperson. An analyst. A pragmatist. The enormous social good of increased women’s
power is clear to me; but it is not my bailiwick. My “game” is haranguing business leaders
about my fact-based conviction that women’s increasing power – leadership skills
and purchasing power – is the strongest and most dynamic force at work in the American
economy today. Dare I say it as a long-time Palo Altan … THIS IS EVEN BIGGER THAN THE
INTERNET!
Tom Peters
Brand It! Now, More Than Ever!
“The increasing difficulty in differentiating between products and
the speed with which competitors take
up innovations will assist in the rise and rise of the brand.”
Gillian Law and Nick Grant, Management [New Zealand]
“We are in the twilight of a society based on data. As information and intelligence become the domain of computers, society will place more value on the one human ability that cannot be automated: emotion.
Imagination, myth, ritual - the language of emotion - will affect everything from our purchasing decisions
to how we work with others. Companies will thrive on the basis of their stories and myths. Companies will need to understand
that their products are less important than their stories.”
Rolf Jensen, Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies
Brand = You Must Care!
“Success means never letting the competition
define you. Instead you have to define yourself based on a point of view you care deeply
about.” Tom Chappell, Tom’s of Maine
Brand = Special = Passion = Plot =
Compelling Mythology = Cause = Connection = Heart = Integrity &
Trust
Rules of “Radical Marketing”
Love + Respect Your Customers!Hire only Passionate Missionaries!Create a Community of Customers!
Celebrate Craziness!Be insanely True to the Brand!
Sam Hill & Glenn Rifkin, Radical Marketing (e.g., Harley, Virgin, The Dead, HBS, NBA)
“Leadership is a performance. You have to be
conscious of your behavior, because everybody else is.”
Carly Fiorina
“A key – perhaps the key – to leadership is the effective
communication of a story.”
Howard Gardner Leading Minds: An Anatomy of Leadership
“Create a Cause, not a ‘business.’ ”
Gary Hamel, Fortune (06.00), on re-inventing a company (Exemplar #1:
Charles Schwab)
Leadership 2000
Talent-obsessed (Great>>>Good)Opportunity Structure (Fast, Cool,
Accountable, Rewarding) Pursuit of a Cause (Brand-driven)
Content-driven (“PSF”/WOW! Projects)State-of-the-Art (Technology!)
Adventuresome Culture (Disrespect, Short Memory, Sense of Humor)Culture of Hyper-urgency
Enthusiast-in-Chief