Tom Bakker CSIRO - Transactive Energy Conference

Navigating the journey to Australia’s decentralised energy futureCSIRO EnergyTom Bakker

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Powering the world’s largest island…

Navigating the journey to Australia’s decentralised energy future


Current Picture of Australian DER

• Text

http://www.energycouncil.com.au/Library/PageContentFiles/14251626-ae50-48a1-8fb0-70841eae409f/ESA002_factsheet_renewables.pdf Figure 5. Updated with figures from APVI

29.6%

14.0%

14.2%

8.7%

16%

22.5%

28.8%12.1%

29.6%28.8%22.5%

http://www.energycouncil.com.au/Library/PageContentFiles/14251626-ae50-48a1-8fb0-70841eae409f/ESA002_factsheet_renewables.pdf



http://apvi.org.au/

1.5MResidential

solar PV systems

4.3GWResidential

solar PV capacity installed

16% Australian

households with solar

PV

5TWh Energy

generated from solar

PV (2%)

http://apvi.org.au/

http://pv-map.apvi.org.au/animation

Why?


Economic viability for 2-6kW residential solar PV systems

Decreasing cost of

solar PV tech

Rebates for solar

PV

High tariffs + FiT for solar PV


NSW and SA: Battery System Launchpad1. FiT schemes in NSW and SA to terminate at end of 20162. Households with ADMD ~2-5kW and 5-7kW solar PV systems means energy

injected back to grid at lower tariff could be better put to use3. Leaves opportunity for battery banks to enable users to use large systems to

offset household use

30+Current

residential battery and/or

system offerings

Australia needs a ‘TE’ solution…


High Energy

$$

Long ‘stringy’

grid

+ Solar PV

Uptake

Falling network utlisation

Navigating Australia’s critical 2017-27 decade

2050 Future Grid Forum Scenarios (2013)

Set and forget Leaving the grid

Rise of the ‘Prosumer’ Renewables thrive

Australians will invest $1,000 billion (totex) in customer-side and grid-side systems to 2050

Australia’s electricity systems in 2027 are resilient to divergent futures and characterized by:

• The ‘balanced scorecard’ of long-term customer and societal value creation;

• Whole-of-system efficiency, reliability and safety; and,

• Millions of end-users participating in and sharing the benefits of whole-of-system optimisation through open, vibrant markets and appropriate protections.

2017-27 Roadmap Outcome

Domains & Work Packages

• Transformation Drivers• FGF Update• Customer Reorientation

A. Customer Orientated Networks (WP 1 & 2)

• Business Models• Regulatory Frameworks – Risk Sharing; Scope of Service; Customer Protection

B. Revenue and Regulatory Enablers (WP 3 & 4)

• Cost-Reflective Pricing• “Second Wave” Incentives• Value of New services including Micro-grids, Ancillary Services

C. Pricing and Incentives (WP 5)

• Standards, operating platforms• Advanced Power System Operations, Reliability and Security• Grid-side technologies and innovation• Future Workforce requirements

D. Technological Enablers (WP 6 – 8)

• Transactive Energy models• Institutional frameworks

E. Next Generation Platform (WP 9)

• Instantaneously balancing dynamic demand requirements with supply from millions of distributed generation, energy storage and ‘virtual storage’ sources;

• Optimising the utilisation of multi-billion-$ system assets and minimise the need for expensive augmentation; and,

The project’s Capstone activity progressively integrates mature content from all Work Packages to inform the types of market design, automation and operation needed in a highly distributed future to enable:

• Incentivisation of millions of consumer/producers to participate and receive a share of the (dynamic, spatio-temporal) value created through millions of DERs providing whole-system optimisation services.

Blueprinting the ‘Next Generation Platform’ for Australia

Contextualised for Australia’s industry structure and grid topologies, identify the most plausible Platform architectures with reference to the following seven areas of examination:

• Services & Value. What diverse energy and grid-support services are future customers likely to value? What types of market actors are likely to co-create value via Platform architectures? How might these services be valued?

• Markets & Institutions. What market and institutional design options exist and how might they compare when subjected to an indicative cost-benefit review? Which options are best for maximizing co-creation of new value by third-parties?

• Enabling Infrastructure. What system architecture, forecasting and planning alternatives may be needed for system optimisation? How might distribution system planning change in this environment?

• Monetisation & Transaction. What standards and mechanisms may be required to dynamically value, monetize and transact value that is inherently spatio-temporal?

• Regulation & Standards. What are the roles of regulation and standards with the various market designs and institutional forms?

• Transitionary Processes. How might existing market and institutional forms evolve to become more ‘transactive’? What might be achieved through incremental changes and what may require step-change interventions?

• System Coordination. What will be the future functional roles and responsibilities of networks and other market actors? What capabilities will be required to provide coordination responsive to customer needs and DNSP, TNSP and NEM situational information?

Delivering Australia’s transition pathways for the critical 2017-27 decade

Roadmap & Reports scheduled for delivery in December 2016

CSIRO Energy

Tom BakkerTechnology Lead – Network Transformation Roadmapt +61 401 232 092e [email protected] www.csiro.au/energy

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Tom Bakker CSIRO - Transactive Energy Conference

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