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Kimberly KisselDirector of [email protected]
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Total U.S. Nicotine Trends
Don BurkeSenior Vice PresidentManagement Science Associates, Inc.
August 12, 2020
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Notice
This presentation is based solely on an analysis conducted by Management Science Associates Inc. (MSAi) and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of any client. The definitions and analysis used in the presentation are based on general industry knowledge and typically represent the way a tobacco retailer may refer to the broad tobacco and nicotine delivery industry. Further, this presentation refers to tobacco and non-tobacco categories, that are often reported as cigarette only, cigars and pipe tobacco only, loose leaf only and electronic and other delivery systems only.
For purposes of this presentation, all of these categories are often referred to as one category using the phrase “nicotine delivery systems”, as that is a category grouping, that in MSAi’s experience, is used by most retail establishments. This presentation’s reference to “nicotine delivery systems” is in that context of the broadest retailer categorization of these various items.
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Agenda
§ Total US Nicotine Trends
§ Trends by Product Form
§ Impact of Pandemic
§ Dollar Store Trade Analysis
§ Menthol Cigarettes
5
§ Flavored Cigar Trends
§ Change in Legal Purchase Age
§ Impact of Flavor and Vapor Bans
§ Impact of FDA Deeming Regulations
§ Distributor Analysis
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Modern Oral Nicotine - Category Overview
§ The Modern Oral Nicotine category includes items marketed as tobacco-free nicotine products for oral consumption.
w These products are available in varying nicotine strengths and often come in pouch form, but can also include items in the form of toothpicks and lozenges.
w This growing category currently spans 7 different brand families.
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Data Coverage
The following slides highlighting the Total US Nicotine Trends are based on just over 300,000 stores summarizing shipment-to-retail volume for these stores.
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Total US Nicotine Trends
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Nicotine Distribution by Trade Class for US
52 Weeks Ending Q2-2020
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Total US Nicotine Trends
10
% Change 52 Weeks Ending Q2-2020 vs. 52 Weeks Ending Q2-2019
Included Categories
w Moistw Snusw Modern Oral Nicotine
w Vaporw Papers/Tubes/Wrapsw Roll Your Own
w Cigarettesw Large Cigarsw Little/Filtered Cigars
All Outlets
Convenience Gas
Tobacco Outlets
Drug StoresDollar Stores
Grocery Liquor Mass Merch
Consumer Units -0.8% 0.1% -0.8% -19.3% 3.3% -4.8% 1.7% -27.1%Servings -2.6% -1.3% -1.5% -21.7% 0.2% -5.8% -0.2% -28.3%Distribution -0.1% 2.7% -2.8% -27.4% 8.3% -6.0% -0.9% -11.3%
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Total US Nicotine Share (Servings)
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Share of Nicotine 52 Weeks Ending Q2-2020 vs. 52 Weeks Ending Q2-2019
Volume in Serving Units
Shr Q2-2019 Shr Q2-2020 Shr ChangeCigarettes 79.8% 78.9% -0.9Moist 7.1% 7.3% +0.2Vapor 5.6% 5.6% 0.0Papers/Tubes/Wraps 3.3% 3.4% +0.1Large Cigars 2.6% 2.8% +0.2Little/Filtered Cigars 1.2% 1.1% -0.1Modern Oral 0.1% 0.6% +0.5Snus 0.3% 0.3% 0.0Pipe Tobacco 0.0% 0.0% 0.0Roll Your Own 0.0% 0.0% 0.0
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Overall Total US Nicotine Trends
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+1 to 1.5%
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Cigarettes
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Overall Total US Cigarette Trends
14Source: Shipment to Wholesale & Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27//2020
-2.0% to-3.0%
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Overall Total US Cigarette Trends
15
% Change 52 Weeks Ending Q2-2020 vs. 52 Weeks Ending Q2-2019
All Outlets
Convenience Gas
Tobacco Outlets
Drug StoresDollar Stores
Grocery Liquor Mass Merch
Cigarettes -3.5% -2.4% -2.1% -18.2% 0.7% -5.7% -1.1% -29.3%Menthol -2.0% -0.1% -4.1% -17.2% -0.4% -6.1% -0.7% -32.3%Non-Menthol -4.3% -3.8% -1.1% -18.8% 1.2% -5.6% -1.4% -27.8%
Cigarettes -3.0% -1.6% -3.1% -6.8% 2.0% -6.0% -3.1% -9.3%Menthol -3.2% -2.1% -3.5% -7.8% 1.7% -6.7% -4.3% -9.2%Non-Menthol -2.9% -1.6% -3.3% -6.9% 1.8% -5.8% -3.0% -9.0%
Cigarettes -5.1% -6.3% -8.7% -7.5% -8.8% -7.3% -7.2% -10.4%Menthol -4.4% -5.1% -8.5% -6.7% -10.4% -6.7% -6.4% -11.4%Non-Menthol -5.2% -6.8% -8.7% -7.9% -7.4% -7.6% -7.5% -9.8%
Distribution
Volume
Items
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Overall Total US Cigarette Trends
Overall Cigarettes down -2.1%
13 Weeks Ending Q2-2020 vs. YAGO
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All Other Tobacco
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Cigarettes vs. All Other Tobacco
13 Weeks Ending Q2-2020 vs. YAGO
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Breakdown of All Other Tobacco
All Other Tobacco up 8.9%
13 Weeks Ending Q2-2020 vs. YAGO
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Cigars
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Overall Total US Cigar Trends
21
% Change 52 Weeks Ending Q2-2020 vs. 52 Weeks Ending Q2-2019
All Outlets
Convenience Gas
Tobacco Outlets
Drug StoresDollar Stores
Grocery Liquor Mass Merch
Large Cigars 4.9% 5.7% 5.0% -12.4% 12.6% -1.1% 8.4% -28.1%Little/Filtered Cigars -5.7% -7.1% -5.2% -5.7% 2.4% -7.7% -7.7% -64.1%
Large Cigars -1.1% -0.1% -3.0% -10.4% 11.2% -4.3% -0.3% -15.2%Little/Filtered Cigars -5.1% -5.0% -4.1% -6.5% 4.4% -9.1% -6.9% -53.6%
Large Cigars -3.0% -2.1% -3.8% -8.7% -4.0% -3.2% -2.2% -0.3%Little/Filtered Cigars -8.9% -9.9% -10.1% -7.6% -7.1% -7.9% -10.3% -62.0%
Volume
Distribution
Items
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Moist
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Overall Total US Moist Trends
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0% to 1%
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Other Tobacco Products
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Overall Total US OTP Trends
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% Change 52 Weeks Ending Q2-2020 vs. 52 Weeks Ending Q2-2019
All Outlets
Convenience Gas
Tobacco Outlets
Drug StoresDollar Stores
Grocery Liquor Mass Merch
Moist -0.3% -0.2% 1.3% 54.4% 21.3% -1.8% 4.5% -15.1%Snus 0.5% -0.2% -1.4% +++ -64.9% 27.9% 4.2% 8.5%Modern Oral +++ +++ 190.9% +++ N/A +++ +++ +++Roll Your Own -12.3% -9.1% -1.6% -23.6% -47.9% -18.3% -3.9% -76.2%Pipe Tobacco -5.3% -1.2% -7.4% -23.8% 19.0% -4.8% 1.8% -124.8%Papers/Tubes/Wraps 9.3% 11.5% 8.6% -9.1% 21.8% 5.0% 13.6% 37.5%
Moist -0.6% -1.2% -2.7% 114.2% 7.4% -3.6% -2.7% -8.3%Snus 0.4% -0.8% -4.0% +++ -33.7% 15.7% 1.3% 20.5%Modern Oral +++ +++ 232.5% +++ N/A +++ 296.2% +++Roll Your Own -9.5% -7.5% -4.7% -27.2% -12.2% -18.7% -3.9% -55.2%Pipe Tobacco 0.0% 0.2% -1.1% -26.3% 20.4% -7.9% 1.6% -78.4%Papers/Tubes/Wraps 3.4% 3.4% 0.3% -22.4% 19.6% 2.1% 4.0% 36.6%
Moist -2.1% -1.9% -2.1% 0.9% -48.2% 0.0% -0.3% -5.1%Snus -5.4% -2.6% 6.3% 5.0% -38.5% -4.9% 3.3% -0.4%Modern Oral 36.6% 42.4% 32.3% 251.2% N/A 104.6% 64.2% 52.9%Roll Your Own -6.5% -2.3% -5.4% -7.3% 5.7% -6.5% -4.3% -32.7%Pipe Tobacco -6.7% -3.9% -6.1% -5.9% 143.5% -4.4% -5.0% -90.1%Papers/Tubes/Wraps 10.9% 11.5% 11.3% 3.9% 33.0% 8.8% 10.8% -52.5%
Volume
Distribution
Items
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Modern Oral (Tobacco Derived Products)
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Modern Oral Nicotine Trend by Trade Channel
Modern Oral Nicotine Quarterly Volume Build% values are Q2-2020 vs. previous quarter
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Modern Oral Nicotine Volume & Item Count
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Modern Oral Nicotine Volume & Distribution
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Modern Oral Nicotine Trend – Same StoresModern Oral Nicotine Quarterly Volume Build
Same Stores Only% values are change vs. previous quarter
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Modern Oral Nicotine Share of Nicotine by State
Modern Oral Share of Nicotine – Q2 2020
31
Total US: 0.7%
0% - 0.38%
0.39% - 0.62%
0.63% - 1.11%
1.12% +
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Oral and Tobacco-Free Delivery Change in Share of Nicotine
32
7.7%8.2% (+0.5)
6.5%
= Modern Oral + Moist + Snus = Modern Oral + Vapor
6.2% (-0.3)
Volume in Serving Units
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Modern Oral Nicotine Trend vs. Vapor - Servings
*Oral = Moist + Snus + Modern Oral
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Volume in Serving Units
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Vapor
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Overall Total US Vapor Trends (Servings)
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% Change 52 Weeks Ending Q2-2020 vs. 52 Weeks Ending Q2-2019
Volume in Serving Units
All Outlets
Convenience Gas
Tobacco Outlets
Drug StoresDollar Stores
Grocery Liquor Mass Merch
Cartridges -1.3% 4.3% -13.9% -64.8% +++ -28.6% -7.5% -51.9%Disposables 27.6% 75.9% 141.5% -79.7% -107.1% -27.9% +++ -101.5%Kits -84.7% -83.8% -90.6% -93.0% -79.4% -80.4% -90.1% -77.1%e-Liquid -42.5% -59.6% -41.1% -82.2% -325.7% -78.1% -52.1% -58.8%
Cartridges -5.1% 4.9% -6.4% -70.6% +++ -42.4% 4.3% -60.6%Disposables -12.7% 11.2% -3.8% -71.2% -94.8% -50.6% 35.6% -80.6%Kits -61.5% -59.8% -65.6% -71.7% -70.5% -71.3% -67.2% -65.0%e-Liquid -53.6% -61.3% -36.9% -88.6% 188.9% -77.8% -51.4% -86.5%
Cartridges -4.5% -1.1% -2.3% -26.4% 6.7% -11.1% -4.2% -40.8%Disposables 133.6% 163.0% 173.7% -48.0% -9.9% 170.7% 260.7% -33.3%Kits -31.3% -27.2% -27.3% -52.4% -69.2% -38.2% -31.6% -63.2%e-Liquid -36.4% -50.1% -35.2% -71.4% 164.7% -57.9% -53.8% -92.1%
Distribution
Items
Volume
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Overview of Vapor Category
Total Vapor down -12.6% (includes Accessories)
13 Weeks Ending Q2-2020 vs. YAGO
36
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Vapor Volume Trend
Total US Vapor Volume
37
flavor volume returns
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Quarterly Volume (% Containing No Consumable Product)
95% of kit volume in 2Q20 was non-consumable/accessory
38
Accessories vs. Traditional Kits
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Total Vapor Volume by Flavor TypeQ2-2020 vs. YAGO
Total Vapor down -12.3% (not including Accessories)
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Impact of Pandemic
40
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Cigarettes
41
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Large Cigars
42
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Moist
43
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Papers/Tubes/Wraps
44
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Vapor
45
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Little/Filtered Cigars
46
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Modern Oral
47
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Snus
48
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Roll Your Own
49
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Pipe Tobacco
50
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YTD Volume v YAGO
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
YTD Volume v YAGO
52
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Dollar Store Trade Channel Analysis
53
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Dollar Store – Same Store Growth & Decline
54
% Change in Dollar Store Volume, Q2-2020 vs. YAGOSame Stores Only
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Menthol Cigarettes Trends Analysis
55
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Cigarette Volume by Flavor Type
Q2-2020 vs. YAGO
Total Cigarettes down -2.1%
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Flavored Cigar Trends Analysis
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Cigar Volume by Flavor Type and Sub-Category
Share of Cigar Sub-Category Volume by Flavor Type, Q2-2020
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Flavor Large Cigars Little/Filtered CigarsTobacco 13.8% -6.9%Menthol -41.8% -10.3%Mint -45.3% -18.2%Flavored 13.1% -14.8%
Q2-2020 vs. YAGO
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Impact of Changes in Legal Tobacco Purchasing Age
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Age 21 Purchase Restriction State Overview
60
*Federal 21+ legal purchase age in effect as of 2020
12/28/2019
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Age 21 Purchase Restriction State Overview – No IL or DC
61
*Federal 21+ legal purchase age in effect as of 2020
Estimated Potential Impact of 21+ to Major Categories
0% to -0.5%
-3% to -8%
0% to -0.5%
DC saw a $2 SET increase in October 2018IL saw a $1 SET increase in July 2018
12/28/2019
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Impact of Flavor and Vapor Bans
62
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Flavored Cartridge Ban
63
“Flavored” includes Mint but not Menthol.
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Flavored Cartridge Ban – Convenience
64
“Flavored” includes Mint but not Menthol.
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Flavored Cartridge Ban – Tobacco Outlet
65
“Flavored” includes Mint but not Menthol.
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Flavored Cartridge Ban – All Other Trade
66
“Flavored” includes Mint but not Menthol.
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
San Francisco Ban
67
• With enforcement beginning January 1, 2019, San Francisco banned all flavored tobacco, including menthol and mint.
-34%-27% -24%
+19%
12/28/2019
Volume in Serving Units
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2016 Analysis on Impact of FDA Deeming Regulations
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 7/2/2016
Overall Total Possible Impact
69
While approximately 30% of all nicotine items possibly will be impacted by the FDA Deeming Regulations that represents only about 8% of total nicotine volume
% Volume of Nicotine % of Items Possibly Impacted
% of Volume Possibly Impacted
Cigarettes 83% 14% 4%Cigars 4% 49% 49%Other Tobacco Products 10% 64% 5%Vapor 3% 100% 100%Total 100% 30% 8%
Note: Figures calculated using wholesaler shipment data managed by MSAi and may differ from manufacturer’s first ship date. These figures are estimates from 2016 of potential impacts only if the regulations are applied as currently written and there is no action by the courts or manufacturers.
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Distributor Summary
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Distributor Summary
§ In total 1,541 distributors of Cigarettes, Moist, Snus, Large Cigars, Little/Filtered Cigars, Roll Your Own, Papers/Tubes/Wraps, Vapor, Modern Oral, and Pipe Tobacco were used in the following analysis.
§ Distributors were ranked based on their industry volume. § High Volume – Represents the Top 33%§ Mid Volume – Represents the Middle 33%§ Low Volume – Represents the Bottom 33%
Avg. Distributor Volume & Avg. Store Volume are weekly averages
Distributor Count
Avg. Store Count
Avg. Dist. Volume
Avg. Store Volume
Avg. Item Count
Avg. Category
High Volume 39 2,591 2,721,927 1,480 1,371 9.7Mid Volume 83 1,179 1,228,331 1,780 1,272 9.3Low Volume 1,419 242 73,302 283 418 5.6
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Industry Summary – 52 Weeks Ending Q2-2020 vs. YAGO
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Industry Summary – 52 Weeks Ending Q2-2020 vs. YAGO
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Industry Summary – 52 Weeks Ending Q2-2020 vs. YAGO
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Vapor Sub-Category – High Volume Distributor
Item count is total items across all distributors
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Vapor Sub-Category – Mid Volume Distributor
Item count is total items across all distributors
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Vapor Sub-Category – Low Volume Distributor
Item count is total items across all distributors
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© 2020 Management Science Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Wholesale Shipment to Retail data through 6/27/2020
Weeks of Supply by Distributor Size & CategoryAverage Weeks of Supply, Q2-2020
Weeks of supply calculated as average weekly inventory/average weekly shipments across Q2-2020. Distributors shipping <1,000 units for a category across the quarter were excluded from that category’s calculation
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THANK YOU!
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