11/23/20086:55 PM Pacific

Reviewing the 15minute ES (S&P e-minis), probability favors better entry points to get long. Fibonacci ratios support that we have completed 5 waves up so the retracement should be either .500 or .618. Less of a retracement (i.e. the current .250 retracement level) shifts the bias to only 3 waves completed and the price target for wave 5 is probably 816-817. If we rallied right here, there is a confluence at that level. Then we would get the larger retracement. However, the ratios to support 5 waves completed are pretty clean, so I am looking for the larger retracement now. I think .382 is neutral here and could go either way: wave 5 of this set, or the turn and start of the next set of 5 waves.

TMD/DW

11/23/20086:55 PM Pacific

The market detective provides personal market opinion based on sound technical analysis and research. However, no warranty is given or implied as to its true reliability. The market detective will make errors and mistakes. The market detective is not an investment adviser and is not making recommendations to buy, sell, or place orders relating to the futures contracts, ETFs, or stocks that he writes about. The responsibility for decisions made from information contained in this service are solely that of the individual subscriber. The individual must fully research and make his/her own decisions before acting on any information provided by the market detective. The market detective assumes no responsibility for subscriber investment or trading results.