tl presentation busted - University of Lausanne · Ecole Hoteliere St-Etienne Beaulieu Oiseaux...
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Verger
Venoge sud
Stand
Sorbiers
Signal
Scierie Savigny
Rouvene
Roses
Rochettaz
Rive
Riau-Graubon
Renges
Pully-Port
Pra Forni
Place de Sport
Osches
Mongevon
Lutry-Corniche
Les Liaudes
Les Chavannes
Laviau
Lac Sauvabelin
Industrie
Haute Combe
Grey
Grandvaux
Floreyres
En Verney
Depot MSA
Daillettes
Cugy-Poste
College Marcolet
Chenaulaz Chataignier
Chandolin
Champ Rond
Champ Croix Bressonnaz
Blevallaire
Verriere
Tuileries
Trabandan Timonet
Saugiaz
Russel
Ropraz-Ussieres
Praz-Collet
Praz-Berthoud
Piecettes Petit Chateau
Mousquines
Moulin
Mont-Fleuri
Mont dOr
Mezieres-Station
Lutry-Port
Lisiere
Languedoc
Grand Vigne
Etavez
Devin
Closalet
Chocolatiere
Cavenette
Bourdonniere
Bossons
Bochet
Blessoney
Berges Belvedere Belmont
Verney
Tour Haldimand
Suchet-Foret
Stade Olympique
Pully-Centre
Provence sud
Planches
Perronnaz
Moudon-Gare
Grands-Champs
Grand-Mont
Grand Vennes
Follieu
Denantou
Crissier-Centre
Cigale
Budron
Bre
Boissonnet Bois Murat
Beau-Rivage Baumettes
Abeilles Vulliette
Vignes
Venoge nord
Veilloud
Rapille
Pre-dYverdon
Pontet
Pecheurs
Pavement
Noutes Mouline
Mezieres-Village
Martines
Maladiere-Lac
Joliette
Hermitage Grand-Pont
Fougeres
Epinettes Epalinges
Entre-Bois
En Enjalin
Elysee
Desert
Depot Perrelet
Dapples
Coudraie
Cottages
Coppoz
Chavannes-Plaine
Bellerive
Barre
Aubepines 1er Mai
Vallee Jeunesse
Sablons
Preau Paqueret
Mont-Goulin
Marcolet
Maillefer
Foyer
Fontenay
Druey
Cugy
Cotes
Concorde
Cheseaux-Gare
Boveresses
Borjod
Bois de Vaux
Bethanie
Beau-Site
Vulliemin
Villars
Theatre de Vidy
Sur-la-Croix St-Sulpice
Rosiaz
Reymondin
Pully-Gare
Provence nord
Pierrefleur
Parc
Mon Repos
Mirabeau
Jura
Grattapaille
Ecole Commerce
Buyere
Broye
Virgile-Rossel
Rue du Lac
Rionzi
Pierre Viret
Pierraz-Portay
Montolieu Malley-Ouest
En Marin
Coppoz-Poste
Closelet
Chantres Voisinand
Planta
Croix dOuchy
Cocagne
Bourg-Dessus Victor-Ruffy
Rasude
Perreaz
Longemalle
Figuiers Croset
Coudrette
Prefaully
Pont Marc Dufour
Mont-Blanc
Metairie
Marronnier
Faverges
Epalinges-Centre
Croix-de-Plan
Benj. Constant
Croix Blanche
Cour
Boisy
Bois-Genoud
Allieres Somais
Parc Velodrome
Maladiere
Glycines
Flumeaux Bois-Gentil
Val-Vert
Renens-Piscine
Dranse
Clochatte
Chemin du Cap
Bugnon
Zinguerie
Paudex
Jurigoz Huttins
C.-F. Ramuz
Tivoli
Moulins
Montoie
Malley-Nord Maladiere-Fig.
Chene
Vinet
Villard
Praz-Sechaud
Musee Olympique
Alpes
Montillier
Grangette
Florissant
Presbytere
Oiseaux Beaulieu
St-Etienne
Ecole Hoteliere
Vallonnette
Prilly-Chasseur
Petit-Mont
Prilly-Eglise
Bateliere
Montbenon Arc-en-Ciel Ecole Metiers
Chauderon-Ale
Cedres
EPSIC
Druey-College Sous lEglise
Hotel-de-Ville Fauconnieres Chailly-Village
Couchirard
Avenir
Valmont
Riant-Cour
Epenex
Beauregard
Valency
Censuy
Blecherette
Rotillon
Port-Franc
Bassenges
Place du Nord
St-Roch Avenue du Leman
Cerisaie
Crochy
Casernes
Renens-Village
Recordon Prilly-Centre
Montchoisi
Bethusy
UNIL-Mouline
St-Paul
Provence
Jordils
Pully-Clergere
Bergieres
Fourmi Eglantine
Beaulieu-Jomini
UNIL-Sorge
Vennes
Rouvraie Pont Bessieres
Montetan
Bonne-Esperance
Pont Chauderon
Perraudettaz
Montelly
Boston
Motte Pont de Chailly Cecil
Vieux-Moulin
Renens-14 Avril Prelaz
Valentin
Ouchy
Memise
Vigie Rue Neuve Grande-Borde
Bourdonnette
Foret
Renens-Gare
Bellevaux
Perrelet
Malley Tunnel
Grancy
UNIL-Dorigny Prelaz-les-Roses
Renens-Gare sud Renens-Gare nord
Croisettes Delices EPFL
CHUV
Galicien
Georgette Riponne-M.Bejart
Sallaz Ours Lausanne-Gare
Bessieres
Chauderon St-Francois Bel-Air
Lausanne-Flon
Sheet 1Stop
Lausanne-Flon Bel-Air St-Francois Chauderon Bessieres Lausanne-Gare Ours Sallaz Riponne-M.Bejart Georgette Galicien CHUV EPFL Delices Croisettes Renens-Gare nord Renens-Gare sud Prelaz-les-Roses UNIL-Dorigny Grancy Tunnel Malley Perrelet Bellevaux Renens-Gare Foret Bourdonnette Grande-Borde Rue Neuve Vigie Memise Ouchy Valentin Prelaz Renens-14 Avril Vieux-Moulin Cecil Pont de Chailly Motte Boston Montelly Perraudettaz Pont Chauderon Bonne-Esperance Montetan Pont Bessieres Rouvraie Vennes UNIL-Sorge Beaulieu-Jomini Eglantine Fourmi Bergieres Pully-Clergere Jordils Provence St-Paul UNIL-Mouline Bethusy Montchoisi Prilly-Centre Recordon Renens-Village Casernes Crochy Cerisaie Avenue du Leman St-Roch Place du Nord Bassenges Port-Franc Rotillon Blecherette Censuy Valency Beauregard Epenex Riant-Cour Valmont Avenir Couchirard Chailly-Village Fauconnieres Hotel-de-Ville Sous lEglise Druey-College EPSIC Cedres Chauderon-Ale Ecole Metiers Arc-en-Ciel Montbenon Bateliere Prilly-Eglise Petit-Mont Prilly-Chasseur Vallonnette Ecole Hoteliere St-Etienne Beaulieu Oiseaux Presbytere Florissant Grangette Montillier Alpes Musee Olympique Praz-Sechaud Villard Vinet Chene Maladiere-Fig. Malley-Nord Montoie Moulins Tivoli C.-F. Ramuz Huttins Jurigoz Paudex Zinguerie Bugnon Chemin du Cap Clochatte Dranse Renens-Piscine Val-Vert Bois-Gentil Flumeaux Glycines Maladiere Parc Velodrome Somais Allieres Bois-Genoud Boisy Cour Croix Blanche Benj. Constant Croix-de-Plan Epalinges-Centre Faverges Marronnier Metairie Mont-Blanc Pont Marc Dufour Prefaully Coudrette Croset Figuiers Longemalle Perreaz Rasude Victor-Ruffy Bourg-Dessus Cocagne Croix dOuchy Planta Voisinand Chantres Closelet Coppoz-Poste En Marin Malley-Ouest Montolieu Pierraz-Portay Pierre Viret Rionzi Rue du Lac Virgile-Rossel Broye Buyere Ecole Commerce Grattapaille Jura Mirabeau Mon Repos Parc Pierrefleur Provence nord Pully-Gare Reymondin Rosiaz St-Sulpice Sur-la-Croix Theatre de Vidy Villars Vulliemin Beau-Site Bethanie Bois de Vaux Borjod Boveresses Cheseaux-Gare Concorde Cotes Cugy Druey Fontenay Foyer Maillefer Marcolet Mont-Goulin Paqueret Preau Sablons Vallee Jeunesse 1er Mai Aubepines Barre Bellerive Chavannes-Plaine Coppoz Cottages Coudraie Dapples Depot Perrelet Desert Elysee En Enjalin Entre-Bois Epalinges Epinettes Fougeres Grand-Pont Hermitage Joliette Maladiere-Lac Martines Mezieres-Village Mouline Noutes Pavement Pecheurs Pontet Pre-dYverdon Rapille Veilloud Venoge nord Vignes Vulliette Abeilles Baumettes Beau-Rivage Bois Murat Boissonnet Bre Budron Cigale Crissier-Centre Denantou Follieu Grand Vennes Grand-Mont Grands-Champs Moudon-Gare Perronnaz Planches Provence sud Pully-Centre Stade Olympique Suchet-Foret Tour Haldimand Verney Belmont Belvedere Berges Blessoney Bochet Bossons Bourdonniere Cavenette Chocolatiere Closalet Devin Etavez Grand Vigne Languedoc Lisiere Lutry-Port Mezieres-Station Mont dOr Mont-Fleuri Moulin Mousquines Petit Chateau Piecettes Praz-Berthoud Praz-Collet Ropraz-Ussieres Russel Saugiaz Timonet Trabandan Tuileries Verriere Blevallaire Bressonnaz Champ Croix Champ Rond Chandolin Chataignier Chenaulaz College Marcolet Cugy-Poste Daillettes Depot MSA En Verney Floreyres Grandvaux Grey Haute Combe Industrie Lac Sauvabelin Laviau Les Chavannes Les Liaudes Lutry-Corniche Mongevon Osches Place de Sport Pra Forni Pully-Port Renges Riau-Graubon Rive Rochettaz Roses Rouvene Savigny Scierie Signal Sorbiers Stand Venoge sud Verger
Addressing the Free-Rider Problem in Lausanne using Crowd-Sourced Data
VaibhavKulkarni,BertilChapuis,BenoitGarbinato
Getting data about controller movement
Mine data from Twitter feed of @BustedLAUSANNE and Busted-App
Data Format
Format: [Stop], [line to destination]/[outside/inside the vehicle], [timestamp]
Analyze the data to check for attack surfaces
§ What stops/lines come under high-frequency control?
§ At what hours of the day is controlling prominent?
§ Is there any correlation between the stop/line and the control time?
§ At which stops is controlling performed outside the vehicle?
§ Given the current controller position, is the next position predictable?
§ Any observable patterns in weekday/weekend/seasonal regularities?
Stop against “busted” probability
*busted probability at all other stops < 0.005
Busted Probability
Stop
0.00 0.04 0.08 0.12 0.16 0.20 0.24 0.28 0.32 0.36 0.40 0.44 0.48Busted Percentage
Bel-Air Bellevaux Bessieres
Chauderon Croisettes
Delices EPFL Foret
Galicien Georgette
Lausanne-Flon Lausanne-Gare
Ours Perrelet
Prelaz-les-Roses Renens-14 Avril
Renens-Gare Renens-Gare n..
Renens-Gare sud Riponne-M.Bejart
Sallaz St-Francois
Tunnel UNIL-Dorigny
Sheet 6
(10^-1)
Line v/s. busted probabilityLine
line
1 to
Ble
cher
ette
line
1 to
Mal
adie
re li
ne 2
to D
eser
t li
ne 2
to M
alad
iere
-Lac
line
3 to
Bel
leva
ux li
ne 3
to L
ausa
nne
Gar
e li
ne 4
to C
oudr
aie
line
4 to
Pul
ly-G
are
line
6 to
Mal
adie
re li
ne 6
to S
alla
z li
ne 7
to S
t-Fra
ncoi
s li
ne 7
to V
al-V
ert
line
8 to
Gra
nd-M
ont
line
8 to
Ver
riere
line
9 to
Lut
ry-C
orni
che
line
9 to
Pril
ly-E
glis
e li
ne 1
6 to
Gra
nd V
enne
s li
ne 1
6 to
Pro
venc
e no
rd li
ne 1
7 to
Cro
ix P
eage
line
17
to G
eorg
ette
line
18
to L
ausa
nne-
Flon
line
18
to T
imon
et li
ne 2
1 to
Ble
cher
ette
line
21
to L
ausa
nne
Gar
e li
ne 2
2 to
Clo
chat
te li
ne 2
2 to
Lau
sann
e-Fl
on li
ne 2
5 to
Pul
ly-G
are
line
32
to G
alic
ien
line
33
to V
enog
e no
rd li
ne 4
1 to
Mon
tolie
u li
ne 6
0 to
Fro
idev
ille-L
ait..
line
77
to R
enen
s-14
Avr
il li
ne m
1 to
Lau
sann
e-Fl
on li
ne m
1 to
Ren
ens-
Gar
e li
ne m
2 to
Cro
iset
tes
line
m2
to O
uchy
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Bust
ed P
erce
ntag
e
1.39
91.
322
0.91
20.
711
0.43
30.
433
0.50
20.
657
0.92
01.
183
1.02
00.
974 1.
414
1.51
52.
334
1.96
30.
410
0.58
72.
218
2.94
50.
943
1.56
10.
858
1.69
30.
974
0.64
90.
510
0.40
20.
471
0.41
00.
402
0.39
43.
007
4.27
46.
964
6.78
6
Sheet 4
Sheet 1Busted Percentage
0.0082.0004.0006.0008.865
0.008 8.865
Busted Percentage
Zip-code area v/s. busted percentage
Attack surface
§ If I know that a stop/line is controlled at a highfrequency I will always buy a ticket while going there.
§ However, I will not buy a ticket at all other stops.
Hour of day v/s. busted probability
Stop
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21Hour of the Day
Bel-Air Bessieres
Chauderon CHUV
Croisettes Delices
EPFL Galicien
Georgette Lausanne-Flon Lausanne-Gare
Ours Renens-Gare
Renens-Gare n.. Riponne-M.Bejart
Sallaz St-Francois
Sheet 5
Always buy a ticket at the above stops at these times and vice versa
Line v/s hour of the day v/s busted probability
Line
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21Hour of the Day
line 1 to Maladiere line 8 to Grand-Mont
line 8 to Verriere line 9 to Lutry-Corniche
line 9 to Prilly-Eglise line 17 to Croix Peage
line 17 to Georgette line 18 to Timonet
line 21 to Lausanne Gare line m1 to Lausanne-Flon
line m1 to Renens-Gare line m2 to Croisettes
line m2 to Ouchy
Sheet 5
Always buy a ticket at the above lines at these times and vice versa
Area v/s. day time v/s. busted probability
Sheet 2Number of Records
120406080106
Hour of Date789101112131415161718192021
Probability of getting busted outside the vehicle
Stop
0.00 0.04 0.08 0.12 0.16 0.20 0.24 0.28 0.32 0.36 0.40 0.44 0.48Busted Percentage
Bel-Air Bellevaux Bessieres
Chauderon Croisettes
Delices EPFL Foret
Galicien Georgette
Lausanne-Flon Lausanne-Gare
Ours Perrelet
Prelaz-les-Roses Renens-14 Avril
Renens-Gare Renens-Gare n..
Renens-Gare sud Riponne-M.Bejart
Sallaz St-Francois
Tunnel UNIL-Dorigny
Sheet 6
50 10060 70 80 9055 65 75 85 9545Percentage of getting busted outside
If you don’t have a ticket, don’t get out at these stops. Wait for the next one
Movement patternSheet 8
Bel-Air
Riponne
Chauderon
Flon Bessieres
Gare
St-Francois
38%
22%
25%15%
93%
87%
57%
39%
77%
More than 70% confidence to predict where the controllers will go next at certain stops
OverallPrediction
Oct 4Oct 2 Oct 6 Oct 8 Oct 10 Oct 12 Oct 14 Oct 16 Oct 18
Lausanne-FLonSt-Francois
GrancyEPFL
UNIL-Dorigny
CHUV
Lausanne-Gare
Rennes-Gare
SallazUNIL-SorgeChauderon
Bel-AirPully-Centre
CroisettesBourdonnette
BellevauxMontbenon
MotteTunnel
RipponneOurs
Epenex
More than 80% confidence to predict where the controllers will go next
Several repeatable patterns discovered
Conclusion
§ Several attack surfaces available to essentially travel for free!
§ Can this be avoided ?
Measures and data requirement
§ Using a model which is randomized in space and time, adhering to some constraints§ viz. some stops must always be monitored.
§ Data required§ Passengers per line at all times of the day§ Numberofofsubscriptions(monthly,yearly)perzone§ Numberofpaperticketssoldperbusstop§ NumberofSMSticketssoldperdayandperlocation§ Numberofbustedpeopleperdayandperlocation
Organization of the controllers
§ Fixedsalaries?§ Commissionbasedsalaries?§ Rangeofsalaries?§ Itinerary?