Real time GLE modeling and Real time GLE modeling and Relativistic Solar Cosmic Ray Relativistic Solar Cosmic Ray

parameters deriving parameters deriving

E.V. Vashenuyk, Yu.V. Balabin, B.B. Gvozdevsky

Polar Geophysical Institute Apatity,

Russia

NMDB meetingKiel, Germany, 3-8 December, 2008

Real time operating GLE alerting systems:

• 1. T Kuvabara, J.W.Bieber, P.Evenson, R.Pyle, et al., Real time cosmic ray monitoring system for space weather. Space weather, V.4, 2006,

• H.Mavromichalaki, G.Souvatzog,lou, C.Sarlanis, G.Mariatos, M. Gerontidou, A.Papaioannu, Plainaki, S.Tatsis, A.Belov, E.Eroshenko, and V.Yanke. The new Athens center on data processing from the neutron monitor network in real time. C.PAnn. Geophys. 23, 3103, 2005 Langer R,May be there are some others

The GLE onset detected..

• Next we want to know the solar cosmic ray characteristics, to estimate the hazardous consequents. But deriving SCR parameters from the neutron network data is not an easy task. The problem becomes more complicated if even more it to solve for the limited time and at the limited number of stations. As we face in a case of the NMDB

OUTLINE• Neutron monitor network as an instrument

for relativistic solar cosmic ray studies and GLE modeling technique

• Results of relativistic solar cosmic ray events study with the GLE modeling

• Real time GLE modeling in frames of NMDB project. Approaches to the problem

Variations of cosmic ray intensity as recorded by the neutron monitors with solar activity. By black triangles are shown GLE occurrences.

Two neutron monitor stations of the Polar Geophysical Institute

Apatity (67.55N 33.34E) Barentsburg (78.08N 14.12E)

4INTERNET

http://pgia.ru/cosmicray

SERVER

Neutron monitors computer and electronics racks

Effect of magnetosphere on cosmic rays

5

Asymptotic Cone of Acceptance is formed by trajectories of particles contributing into

response of NM

Barentsburg is a high-latitude station and accepts radiation from high latitudes of the selestial sphere and

a subpolar station Apatity from equatorial latitudes

Anisotropy

Solar cosmic rays anisotropy effect during the GLE on December 13, 2006

Apatity (10 s data)

Barentsburg (1 min)

6

The worldwide network of neutron monitors as a multidirectional cosmic ray spectrometer

7

GLE modeling technique of deriving the characteristics of relativistic solar protons (RSP) from

the neutron monitor network data consists of a few steps:

1. Definition of asymptotic viewing cones (taking into account not only vertical but also oblique incident on a detector particles) by the particle trajectory computations in a model magnetosphere (Tsyganenko 2002)

2. Calculation of the NM responses at variable primary solar proton flux parameters.

3. Application of a least square procedure for determining primary solar proton parameters (namely, energy spectrum, anisotropy axis direction, pitch-angle distribution) outside the magnetosphere by comparison of computed ground based detector responses with observations

9

Scheme of asymptotic cones calculations:

~20°

Starting directions at a launching point

Asymptotic directions at magnetopause

To account the contribution of oblique incident particles we calculate 8 trajectories of particles launched at zenith angle 20o and 8 azimuths

Calculated asymptotic directions are then used inthe following modeling of a NM response

SCRGCR

Formula

8

The response function of a i-th neutron monitor to anisotropic flux of solar protons.

(dN/N)i is percentage increase effect at a given neutron monitor i

• J(R) = JoR-* is rigidity spectrum of RSP flux with changing slope

* = + ·(R-1) where is increase per 1 GV (Cramp et al., 1997)

• S(R) is specific yield function (Debrunner et al., 1984),

• θ(R) is pitch angle (angle between the anisotropy axis given

•by ; parameters)

•F(θ(R )) ~ exp(-θ2/C) is pitch-angle distribution in a form of Gaussian (Shea&Smart, 1982)

Thus, 6 parameters of anisotropic solar proton flux

outside magnetosphere ; , Jo, , , C are to be

determined by a solving of the nonlinear least square

problem by comparison of computed responses with

observations

minN

N

N

NSN

j

observ

j

calc

j

2

As example of such study we consider the last GLE

on December 13, 2006.

GLE 70

9

Increase profiles at some NM stations: Oulu, Apatity, Moscow, Barentsburg, Fort Smith

The asymptotic cones (1-20 GV), for the above NM stations and Th-Thule, McM-McMurdo, SA-SANAE, Ma-Mawson, No-Norilsk, Ti-Tixie, CS-Cape Shmidt, In-Inuvik, Pe-Pewanuk.

The derived anisotropy axis and pitch angle grid lines for solar proton flux at 03.00 UT are shown. The cross is the IMF direction (ACE data).

GLE 70

13.12.2006

Fitting

Observed and modeled responses at a number neutron monitor stations

─── increase profiles at at neutron monitors

●●● modeling responses

1 2 3

45

6

Dynamics of pitch angle distributions (PAD) derived from neutron monitors data

1

3

5

to Sun

Numbers mark the moments of time

PAD demonstrates an initial highly collimated beam of particles (prompt component) followed by a delayed quasi-isotropic population (delayed component)

Peak

Peak caused by the prompt component of relativistic solar protons (Buetickofer &Flueckiger, 2006)

Neutron monitorsNeutron monitors

Hodoscope MEPHI observation of collimated particle flux: Hodoscope MEPHI observation of collimated particle flux: D. A. Timashkov, D. A. Timashkov, Yu.V. Balabin, V. V. Borog, K. G. Kompaniets, A. A. Petrukhin,Yu.V. Balabin, V. V. Borog, K. G. Kompaniets, A. A. Petrukhin, E.V.Vashenyuk et al, 30icrc, paper 0298E.V.Vashenyuk et al, 30icrc, paper 0298

Calculated magnetopause projection of Calculated magnetopause projection of the beam, registered by the Hodoscope the beam, registered by the Hodoscope MEPHI (blue spot). Asymptotic cones of MEPHI (blue spot). Asymptotic cones of NM stations (on the left) are shownNM stations (on the left) are shown. .

Dynamics of energetic spectra of relativistic solar protons

GLE 70

GLE 20.01.2005

Increase profiles as registered by a number of NM stations and EAS array “Carpet”(Baksan, North Caucasus)

The spectrum derived in moment (1 ) when the prompt component was dominated is exponential in energy: J= 1.5105exp(-E/0.92), and spectrum of delayed component (2) has a power-law form: J = 7.5104

E-4.9.

(Vashenyuk et al.2006, 2007, Perez-Peraza et al., 2008)

Increase profiles at the McMurdo and Mawson neutron monitors (a), rigidity spectra derived at the moments 07:00 (1) and 08:00 (2) UT (b), SYF and spectra 1 and 2 (c); differential responses (d) of the McMurdo neutron monitor to the exponential spectrum at the moment 1 (blue shading) and to the power-law spectrum at the moment 2 (red shading).

SYF- specific yield function Debrunner et al., 1984

Exponential spectrum of the prompt component was a cause of a giant increase effect at McMurdo neutron monitor and power law spectrum of delayed component produced rather moderate effect at this and other NM stations during the GLE 20.01.2005

a

b

c

d

(a) Increase profiles at the Leeds and Ottawa neutron monitors;(b) energy spectra derived at the moments 04:00 (1)

and 06:00 UT (2), (c) SYF and spectra (1 and 2) and differential responses of the Leeds neutron monitor to the exponential spectrum (1,blue) and to the power-law spectrum (2,red).

Two relativistic solar proton components in the GLE 23 February, 1956

By numbers are marked, respectively, the moments when the prompt component (1)

or delayed one (2) were dominating. One can see comparable responses of both

neutron monitors to the power-law spectrum at moment (2).

Results of modeling analysis of 22 major GLEs showing existence of two RSP components

Spectrum of prompt component: J=J0exp(E/E0), E (GeV); J0, J1 (m2 s st GeV) -1

Spectrum of delayed component J=J1E- γ

Table Energetic spectra parameters of relativistic solar protons PC spectrum (exponential)

DC spectrum (power-law)

№ № of GLE

Date Type II radio onset

Flare impor-tance

Helioco- ordi-nates J0 E0 J1

1 05 23.02.1956 03.31* 3B N23W80 1.4·106 1.30 4.2·106 5.2 2 31 07.05.1978 03.27 1B/Х2 N23W82 5.6·104 0.71 1.2·104 4.1 3 38 07.12.1982 23.44 1B/X2.8 S19W86 5.7·103 0.65 7.2 ·103 4.5 4 39 16.02.1984 08.58 - - W132 - - 5.2 ·104 5.9 5 42 29.09.1982 11.33 - /X9.8 - W105 1.9 104 1.54 3.5 ·104 4.1 6 44 22.10.1989 18.05 2B/X2.9 S27W31 7.5 104 0.87 1.5·104 6.1 7 47 21.05.1990 22.19 2B/X5.5 N35W36 6.3·103 0.83 2.7·103 4.1 8 55 06.11.1997 11.55 2B/X9.4 S18W63 7.3 103 1.20 5.0 103 4.3 9 59 14.07.2000 10.20 3B/X5.7 N22W07 3.3·105 0.35 2.0·104 6.4 10 60 15.04.2001 13.19 2B/X14.4 S20W85 1.3·105 0.53 3.5·104 5.3 11 65 28.10.2003 11.02 4B/X17.2 S16E08 1.4·104 0.59 1.5·104 4.4 12 67 2.11.2003 17.03 2B/X8.3 S14W56 5.6·104 0.33 2.7·103 6.6 13 69 20.01.2005 06.44 2B/X7.1 N14W61 2.5·106 0.49 7.2·104 5.6 14 70 13.12.2006 02.26 2B/X3.4 S06W24 1.1 106 0.33 4.4 104 5.5

E.V. Vashenyuk, Yu.V. Balabin, L.I. Miroshnichenko J. Perez-Peraza , A. Gallegos-Cruz3, 30 icrc, Merida, Mx, paper 0588

Prompt and delayed components of relativistic solar protons (RSP)

The modeling analysis of 22 large GLEs occurred in the period 1956-2006 on the data of the worldwide neutron monitors carried out by us revealed two distinct RSP populations (components):

1. Prompt Component (PC): the early collimated impulse-like intensity increase with exponential energy spectrum,

2. Delayed component (DC): the late quasi-isotropic gradual increase with a softer energy spectrum of the power law form.

3. The exponential spectrum may be an evidence of the acceleration by electric fields arising in the reconnecting current sheets in the corona. The possible source of delayed component particles can be stochastic

acceleration at the MHD turbulence in expanding flare plasma.

E.V. Vashenyuk, Yu.V. Balabin, L.I. Miroshnichenko J. Perez-Peraza , A. Gallegos-Cruz,J ASR, V.38 (3), 411; (2006); 30 icrc, Merida, Mexico, paper 0658 (2007)

GLE No

Spectra of prompt and delayed solar proton components

derived from neutron monitor data for a number of GLEs

Prompt component

Delayed component

GLE No

Points are direct solar proton data fromspacecrafts and balloons Spectra of the prompt component

as a rule have exponential dependence upon energy

Spectra of the delayed componenthave close to the power law dependence upon energy

GLE No

Spectra of prompt and delayed solar proton components

derived from neutron monitor data for a number of GLEs

Prompt component Delayed component

GLE No

Points are direct solar proton data fromspacecrafts and balloons

Spectra of the prompt componentas a rule have exponential dependence upon energy

Spectra of the delayed componenthave close to the power law dependence upon energy

PC 20.01.05

PC 20.01.05

Asymptotic cones calculated for particles launched under inclined directions. Focusing effect is seen for rigidities from 1 to 5-10 GV

Focusing effect of geomagnetic field

Stations

N Station Lat Lon RC

1 APATITY 67.55 33.33 0.65

2 ALMAATA-B 43.14 76.60 6.61

3 ATHENS 37.58 23.47

4 BERN 46.95 7.45

5 BAKSAN 43.28 42.69 6.40

6 BARENTSBURG 78.12 14.12 0.00

7 CALGARY 51.08 -114.13 1.09

8 CAPE SCHMIDT 68.92 -179.47 0.55

9 CLIMAX 39.37 -106.18

10 EREVAN 40.50 44.17

11 FORT SMITH 60.00 -112.00

12 HERMANUS -34.42 19.22 4.58

13 INUVIK 68.35 -133.72 0.16

14 IRKUTSK 52.10 104.00 3.56

15 JUNGFRAUJOCH 46.55 07.98 4.53

16 KERGUELEN -49.35 70.25 1.10

17 KINGSTONE -42.99 147.29 1.88

18 KIEL 54.30 10.10 2.32

19 LARC -62.20 -58.96

20 LOMNICKY STIT 49.11 20.13 3.84

21 McMURDO -77.51 166.43 0.00

22 MAGADAN 60.10 151.00 2.11

23 MOSCOW 55.47 37.32 2.39

24 MAWSON -67.60 62.68 0.22

25 MEXICO 19.33 -99.18

26 NAIN 56.60 -61.70

27 NORILSK 69.26 88.05 0.57

28 NOVOSIBIRSK 54.80 83.00 2.78

29 NEWARK 39.70 -75.70 2.02

30 OLCH -33.49 -70.72

31 OULU 65.02 25.50 0.77

32 POTCHEFSTROOM -26.68 27.92 7.00

33 PEAWANUCK 55.00 -85.00

34 ROME 41.90 12.52 6.24

35 SANAE -71.67 -02.85 0.86

36 TERRE ADELIE -66.65 140.00 0.00

37 THULE 76.50 -68.70 0.00

38 TSUMEB -19.20 17.60 9.21

39 TIXIE BAY 71.60 128.90 0.45

40 YAKUTSK 62.02 129.72 1.63

41 YANGBAJING 30.11 90.53 14.10

Cut model,NMDB stations only

1. APTY2. ATBA3. ATHN4. BKSN5. BRBG6. CAPS7. IRKT8. JUNG9. KERG10. KIEL11. LARC12. LMKS13. MGDN14. MOSC15. NRLK16. NVBK17. OULU18. TXBY19. YKTK

0.1 1 100.1

1

10

100

1 103

1 104

1 105

1 106

1 107

GeV

c

Spectra derived at 3.55, 400 and 4.20 UT. Dashed curves: full model, solid curves- the cut one

0.1 1 10

0.1

1

10

100

1 103

1 104

1 105

1 106

1 107

GeV

c

TimeUT

Model1 (full)

------------2(cut)

gamma Delta gammaC I0

Residual error %

03:00 1 -4.7 0.21 0.24 1.2 105 2.52 (cut) -4.3 0.25 0.25 1.6 105 3.9

03:55 1 -6.7 0 17.2 6.1 105 1.52(cut) -6.3 0.07 9.1 3.6 105 4.7

04:00 1 -6.9 0 18.4 12.5 105 1.72(cut) -6.7 0 8.2 4.0 105 5.3

04:05 1 -7.0 0 21.8 11.0 105 1.92(cut) -6.7 0 11.1 3.8 105 3.8

05:00 1 -7.6 0 23.7 5.4 105 3.92(cut) -6.7 0 8.0 2.1 105 4.5

Results of GLE 70 modeling by the full and cut models