Time trends among adolescents in -...
Transcript of Time trends among adolescents in -...
Time trends among adolescents in
Oslo, and their situation in 2015
Young in Oslo 1996-2015
NordAN-conference Oslo 16th of October 2016
Patrick Lie Andersen – researcher at NOVA (Norwegian Social
Research) – Oslo and Akershus University College
• How has the situation among youth in Oslo
changed from 1996 to 2015?
• How is the situation among youth in Oslo in
2015?
• What can we learn about adolescents’
alcohol consumption from the Young in
Oslo-survey ?
Presentation outline
The Young in Oslo-surveys
• Adolescents - 14-17 years (2015:12-19)
• App 11-12000 (2015: 24000)
• Anonymous questionaires
• Many topics:
• well-being
• social relations (family, friends),
• education
• leisure time
• health
• tobacco, alcohol, drugs,
• delinquency/misbehaviour
• Founded by the Municipality of Oslo
• Designed by NOVA – many established survey
questions
• Data collection period: January/february
How has the situation among
youth in Oslo changed from
1996 to 2015?
In the 1990’ties
• Many worries among politicians,
commentators, researches and
parents
• Alcohol
• Drugs
• Violence
• Crime (gangs)
• A situation that potentially could
get out of control
• Increasing immigration – a
potential problem?
Oslo over time: 1996 – 2015
• Decrease in youth that have been
subject to violence
18
11
14
20
13
16
32
18
25
0 50 100
Gutter
Jenter
Alle
2006
2012
2015
Violence: victimization
Oslo over time: 1996 – 2015
• Decrease in youth that have been
subject to violence
• Decrease in youth that have been
drunk
Alcohol: Been drunk last 12 months
25
28
26
27
31
29
37
40
39
44
46
45
0 50 100
Gutter
Jenter
Alle
1996
2006
2012
2015
Oslo over time: 1996 – 2015
• Decrease in youth that have been subject
to violence
• Decrease in youth that have been drunk
• Increase in youths’ well-being in schools
Well-being in school
94
94
94
93
94
93
89
91
90
82
84
83
0 50 100
Gutter
Jenter
Alle
1996 2006 2012 2015
Oslo over time: 1996 – 2015
• Decrease in youth that have been subject to violence
• Decrease in youth that have been drunk
• Increase in youths’ well-being in schools
• Fewer daily smokers
Tobacco: Daily smokers
2,3
1,5
1,9
3,4
2,9
3,1
7,5
8,5
8,0
18,2
20,5
19,3
0 20 40
Gutter
Jenter
Alle
1996
2006
2012
2015
Oslo over time: 1996 – 2015
• Decrease in youth that have been subject to
violence
• Decrease in youth that have been drunk
• Increase in youths’ well-beeing in schools
• Fewer daily smokers
• Increase in number of homebound
adolescents
Leisure time: Homebound(two whole evenings)
69
75
72
64
71
68
58
66
62
56
62
59
0 50 100
Gutter
Jenter
Alle
1996 2006 2012 2015
Oslo over time : 1996 – 2015
• Decrease in youth that have been subject to
violence
• Decrease in youth that have been drunk
• Increase in youths’ well-beeing in schools
• Fewer daily smokers
• Increase in number of homebound
adolescents
• More adolescents spend much time on
homework
Share who spend more thanone hour a day on homework
44
63
53
38
51
45
28
43
36
0 50 100
Gutter
Jenter
Alle
1996 2006 2012 2015
Changes over time
• Contrary to the worries from the late 80-ties and the 90-ties
– Adolescents in Oslo have become more well-adjusted and «straight» (Øia
2007, 2012, Andersen & Bakken 2015)
• This development is similar to the development in Norway in general
– Young in Norway and UNGDATA
• This generation of adolescents have good relations to their parents, they are not in
conflict or see themselves in opposition towards their parents (Øia & Vestel 2014)
PAGE 13
• How is the situation among youth in Oslo in 2015?
• What can we learn about adolescents’ alcohol
consumption from the last Young in Oslo-survey ?
PAGE 15
No need to worry in 2015?
• In 2015 – 6 percent report being bullied - -> this
represents about 2200 adolescents
– Even low shares represent large numers
– and often, serious problems for those affected
• In addition, increase in depressive symptoms
among girls
• The share has almost doubled from 1996 to 2015
• And, many problems, as low educational
achievements, health problems and drug/alcohol
abuse – are unevenly distributed19
11
26
18
12
23
14
11
17
12
9
15
0 20 40
Alle
Gutter
Jenter
1996
2006
2012
2015
Share withdepressive symptoms
The situation in 2015 - nuances
We see large differences
(on many indicators) after:
• Age
• Gender
• Immigrant origin
• Social origin:
(Socioeconomic
resourses among
parents)
• Geography in Oslo:
east-west
4 3 11 10 23 26 40 46 53 55 72 67
020
40
60
80
Sha
re d
runk la
st yea
r
LS 8 LS 9 LS 10 HS 1 HS 2 HS 3
Boys Girls
The situation in 2015 - nuances
We see large differences
(on many indicators) after:
• Age
• Gender
• Immigrant origin
• Social origin
(Socioeconomic
resourses among
parents)
• Geography in Oslo:
east-west
4 3 13 5 30 11 56 17 69 25 85 34
020
40
60
80
Sha
re d
runk la
st yea
r
LS 8 LS 9 LS 10 HS 1 HS 2 HS 3
Norw par Fore par
Drunk last year – after SES & im.orig.
Among those
with affluent
parents – higher
prob. of having
been drunk
0.2
.4.6
.81
Pro
b d
run
k last ye
ar
0 .25 .50 .75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00Parents socio econ stat(Min=0, Max=3)
Norw_par Foreg_par
Data: Marings, logit models. Young in Oslo 2015. Upp.Sec. N=9520
City district: shares that have been drunk
Large differences
between
western/central
districts
And
Eastern districts
19.3
19.3
19.7
20.1
23.0
24.3
31.5
32.7
36.2
38.7
39.3
39.6
40.8
45.7
45.7
0 10 20 30 40 50
Søndre Nordstrand
Grorud
Stovner
Alna
Bjerke
Gamle Oslo
Østensjø
Grünerløkka
Nordstrand
St. Hanshaugen
Sagene
Nordre Aker
Vestre Aker
Ullern
Frogner
Ung i Oslo 2015. Elever VGS. N=8166. Vektet.
• Agegroups: 13-17
• Black - 20 % highest
incomes
• Red - 20 % lowest
incomes
• High segregation level
Results from Andersen &
Bakken (2015):
• Immigrant origin –mainly
eastern areas
In western districts we
observe high levels of:
• alcohol consumption
• School grades/ed.ambi.
• Regular exercise
• Org. leisure time act.
• Satisfaction with own
health
Oslo 2012
(Andersen &
Ljunggren
forthcoming)
Neighborhood/peer effects?
10.7
11.1
11.4
11.5
13.3
13.6
15.6
17.6
17.9
18.2
21.2
22.0
27.4
29.1
33.7
0 10 20 30 40
Søndre Nordstrand
Gamle Oslo
Grorud
Stovner
Alna
Bjerke
Østensjø
Grünerløkka
Nordstrand
St. Hanshaugen
Vestre Aker
Sagene
Frogner
Nordre Aker
Ullern
Ung i Oslo 2015. Elever VGS. N=8166. Vektet.
29.9
30.3
31.8
32.0
32.5
37.0
38.2
38.7
40.3
42.5
42.8
44.4
46.9
47.3
49.5
0 10 20 30 40 50
Søndre Nordstrand
Grorud
Alna
Bjerke
Stovner
Østensjø
Gamle Oslo
Nordstrand
Nordre Aker
Vestre Aker
Grünerløkka
St. Hanshaugen
Ullern
Sagene
Frogner
Ung i Oslo 2015. Elever VGS. N=8166. Vektet.
Different youth cultures in west and eastern parts?
Immigrants might influence non-immigrants in eastern parts
And vice versa in the western parts (e.g. russetiden - the high school
graduation celebration)
• Another possibility: nationality among those with immigrant origin
Immigrant originNorwegian-born parents
Alcohol: Other potentially important factors
(Among youth at upper secondary)
From regression analyses:
Geography (city district)
Socioeconomic status
Age
Immigrant origin
Religion
Parents’ alcohol use
Friends’ alcohol use
School orientation: homework/ambitions
Physical activity (healthy living)
Strongly correlated
Less correlated with other
factors – contributes to
additional explained variance
Religion / friends’ alcohol use (upp.secondary).
Regardless of city district, SES, immigrant origin, age, parents’ drining
patt. AND religion - > those with friends who drink regulary, have a
higher probability of having been drunk
82 56 13 79 50 12 26 15 1 35 15 4 69 53 6
020
40
60
80
Bee
n d
runk
No relig Christ. Islam Hindu. Budd
Weekly Seldom
Never
Summary
In most areas – the situation has improved among adolescents
• one exception: mental health among girls
• the worries from the 1990 – mainly proved wrong
A generation of well-adjusted youth: high well-being in schools, high
ambitions, regular physical activity and organized leisure time
activities,
But, large variations between groups of youth
Well-being, health, education, leisure time activities, and not the least
alcohol consumption
• Immigrant origin and religion
• Socioeconomic resources
• City districts/norms/youth culture
Summary
Adolescents in Oslo with Norwegian origin, non-religious, with affluent
parents, and with friends that drink, have the highest alcohol
consumption
These adolescents mainly live in the western areas.
Fewer adolescents in the the eastern areas, who often have
immigrant orign, use alcohol
However, adolescents in the western city disticts are successful in
many other areas
They also report fewer alcohol related problems, while those who
drink alcohol in the eastern areas report more problems (Bakken &
Pedersen 2015)
Thank you for listening.
Questions?
References:Andersen, P. L.; Bakken (2015), A.; Ung i Oslo 2015 [Young in Oslo 2015], NOVA Rapport 8/15 (ISSN 0808-
5013)
Andersen, P.L., Pedersen, W. & Bakken (forthcoming). Russetid i Oslo. Hvem deltar? Hvem feirer hardest?
Andersen, P.L. & Ljunggren, J.E. (forthcoming). Bostedssegregasjon i Oslo gjennom 20 år.
Pedersen, W., & Bakken, A. (2016). Urban landscapes of adolescent substance use. Acta Sociologica,
SSB (2013). Kriminalitetsbilde i endring
Øia, T. (2007). Ung i Oslo. Levekår og sosiale forskjeller [Young in Oslo. Living conditions and social
differences]. NOVA-rapport, 6(07).
Øia, T. (2012). Ung i Oslo 2012–Nøkkeltall. Oslo: NOVA Notat, 7, 2012.
Øia & Vestel (2014). Generasjonskløfta som forsvant. Tidsskrift for ungdomsforskning