Time for the U.S. to Reskill? What the Survey of Adult Skills Says
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ANDREAS SCHLEICHERSpecial advisor to the Secretary-General on Education Policy
Deputy Director for Education and Skills
Skilled for Life? Measuring the skills of adults
Washington, November 12Andreas Schleicher
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Survey of Adult Skills Participating countries
2013
(**see notes A and B in the Reader’s Guide).
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Survey of Adult Skills in brief
(**see notes A and B in the Reader’s Guide).
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in literacy, numeracy and problem solving in technology-rich environments.
166 thousand adults…Representing 724 million 16-65 year-olds in 24 countries/economies
… took an internationally agreed assessment…
Also surveyed were generic skills such as collaborating with others and organising one’s time, and how adults use their skills
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1968-1977 1978-1987 1998-2007 2008-20161988-1997
1972-1980 1981-1990 2001-2010 2011-20201991-2000
55-65 45-54 35-44 25-34 16-24
Age distribution of the Survey of Adult Skills
Age range:
University graduation year
High-School graduation year
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SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS
Skills Transform Lives and Drive EconomiesWhat people know and what they can do with what they know has a major impact on their life chances
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Increased likelihood of positive outcomes among adults with higher literacy skills
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5 Literacy
(scoring at Level 4/5 compared with those scoring at Level 1 or below)
Odds ratio
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Inequality in the distribution of income and literacy skills
1.41.451.51.551.61.651.7
0.2
0.22
0.24
0.26
0.28
0.3
0.32
0.34
0.36
0.38
0.4
0.33593915
0.26078351
0.32350417
0.25612512
0.2478
0.3150587
0.25947413
0.295440.29327448
0.336604
0.32925796
0.3150.29374042
0.2501
0.3144635
0.25663323
0.31701137
0.259326
0.37823832
0.2591987
England/N. Ireland (UK)
Literacy skills inequality (9th/1st decile)
Income inequality (Gini coefficient)
Low income inequalityLow skills inequality
High income inequalityLow skills inequality
High income inequalityHigh skills inequality
Low income inequalityHigh skills inequality
Avera
ge
Average
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SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS
The level and distribution of skills differs markedly across countriesMuch of the variation in skills proficiency is observed within countries, so most countries have significant shares of struggling adults
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SpainItaly
United StatesFranceIreland
Northern Ireland (UK)Poland
England/N. Ireland (UK)England (UK)
KoreaCyprus**
CanadaAustraliaAverage
Russian Federation³Germany
EstoniaAustria
Czech RepublicSlovak Republic
DenmarkNorwaySweden
NetherlandsFlanders (Belgium)
FinlandJapan
240 250 260 270 280 290 300
25th
Mean and .95 confidence interval for
mean 75th 95th 5th
Score
Skills of adultsNumeracy
7 points are roughly equal to one year of education
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ItalySpain
FranceIrelandPoland
Northern Ireland (UK)Cyprus**
AustriaUnited States
GermanyDenmark
England/N. Ireland (UK)Korea
England (UK)AverageCanada
Slovak RepublicCzech Republic
Russian Federation³Flanders (Belgium)
EstoniaNorwaySweden
AustraliaNetherlands
FinlandJapan
240 250 260 270 280 290 300
25th
Mean and .95 confidence interval for
mean 75th 95th 5th
Score
Skills of adultsLiteracy
7 points are roughly equal to one year of education
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ItalySpain
FranceIrelandPolandAustria
United StatesGermanyDenmark
England/N. Ireland (UK)Korea
AverageCanada
Slovak RepublicCzech Republic
Russian Federation³Flanders (Belgium)
EstoniaNorwaySweden
AustraliaNetherlands
FinlandJapan
80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80
0.70.80.80.50.0
1.84.21.5
0.41.40.31.20.90.30.60.0
5.20.4
2.20.0
1.92.3
0.01.2
Level 2 Level 1 Below Level 1 Level 3 Level 4/5 No information
%
Adults at Level 4/5 can • Perform multiple-step operations to integrate, interpret, or synthesise information from complex or lengthy texts that involve conditional and/or competing information. • Make complex inferences and appropriately apply background knowledge as well as interpret or evaluate subtle truth claims or arguments.
Adults at Level 3 can • Understand and respond appropriately to dense or lengthy texts.• Understand text structures and rhetorical devices.• Identify, interpret, or evaluate one or more pieces of information and make appropriate inferences. • Perform multi-step operations and select relevant data from competing information in order to identify and formulate responses. •Technicians, Professionals
Adults at Level 2 can• Integrate two or more pieces of information based on criteria• Compare and contrast or reason about information and make low-level inferences. • Navigate digital texts to access and identify information from various parts of a document.•Shop assistants, machine operators
Adults at Level 1 can • Read relatively short digital or print continuous, non-continuous, or mixed texts to locate a single piece of information.• Complete simple forms, understand basic vocabulary, determine the meaning of sentences, and read continuous texts with a degree of fluency.
What adults can doLiteracy
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15
220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 310 320450
470
490
510
530
550
570
519.91
505.48
527.01
509.86513.03
514.58
548.36
503.79501.47
461.69
523.10
547.46
530.65
489.85
495.43
492.11
479.96
502.36
474.35
543.44
Mean numeracy proficiency in PISA and in the Survey of Adult Skills (20-22 year-olds)
Avera
ge a
t 2
0-2
2
OECD average for PISA 2006
PISA Score
Survey of Adult Skills score
+–
++
––
–+
Mean reading score in PISA 2006 and literacy score in the Survey of Adult Skills 2012
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PolandIreland
Slovak RepublicEstonia
KoreaUnited States
AustriaCzech Republic
AverageFlanders (Belgium)
JapanEngland/N. Ireland (UK)
GermanyCanada
AustraliaDenmark
NorwayNetherlands
FinlandSweden
100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100
Level 22
Level 32
Young adults (16-24 year-olds) All adults (16-65 year-olds)
Problem solving skills in a digital environment
%
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Evolution of employment in occupational groups defined by problem-solving skillsPercentage change in the share of employment relative to 1998, by occupational groups defined by workers’ average level of proficiency in problem solving (based on 24 OECD countries with 1998 LFS data)
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
*-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Medium-low level of prob-lem-solving
Low level of problem-solving
Medium-high level of prob-lem-solving
%
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SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS
Successful integration is not simply a matter of time. In some countries, the time elapsed since immigrants arrived appears to make little difference to their proficiency in literacy and numeracy, suggesting either that the incentives to learn the language of the receiving country are not strong or that policies that encourage learning the language of the receiving country are of limited effectiveness
Foreign-language immigrants with low levels of education tend to have low skills
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Irelan
d
Slova
k Republic
Czech
Republic
Australi
a
Engla
nd/N. Ir
eland (U
K)Sp
ain
Estonia
Canad
aIta
ly
Austria
Averag
e
German
y
United St
ates
Flanders
(Belgi
um)
France
DenmarkKorea
Norway
Netherlands
Finlan
d
Sweden
Japan
Poland
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Native-born
Literacy proficiencyby immigration background
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Irelan
d
Slova
k Republic
Czech
Republic
Australi
a
Engla
nd/N. Ir
eland (U
K)Sp
ain
Estonia
Canad
aIta
ly
Austria
Averag
e
German
y
United St
ates
Flanders
(Belgi
um)
France
DenmarkKorea
Norway
Netherlands
Finlan
d
Sweden
Japan
Poland
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Native-born Foreign-born - < 5 years
172
Literacy proficiencyby immigration background
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Irelan
d
Slova
k Republic
Czech
Republic
Australi
a
Engla
nd/N. Ir
eland (U
K)Sp
ain
Estonia
Canad
aIta
ly
Austria
Averag
e
German
y
United St
ates
Flanders
(Belgi
um)
France
DenmarkKorea
Norway
Netherlands
Finlan
d
Sweden
Japan
Poland
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Native-born Foreign-born - < 5 yearsForeign-born - 5 years and more
172
Literacy proficiencyby immigration background
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SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS
Some countries have made significant progress in improving skills proficiency
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240 245 250 255 260 265 270 275 280 285 290 295 300Score
Literacy skills in younger and older generations
Avera
ge 1
6-2
4 y
ear-o
lds
KOREA
Germany
Norway
Avera
ge 5
5-6
5 y
ear-o
lds
Spain
Finland
France
US
UK
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Adults at Level 4/5 in literacy
12.6 million16-24 year-olds scoring at Level
4/5
Estonia, 0.2%
Flanders (Belgium), 1%
Pola
nd ,
3%
Austr
alia,
3%
Germany, 4%
Ireland, 0.2%
Kore
a, 1
%
Net
herl
ands
. 2%
7.9 million55-65 year-olds scoring at Level 4/5
Denmark, 0.5%
Finla
nd, 1%
Those entering the job market Those nearing retirement
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SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS
Formal education is the key to building foundation skills
… but more education does not automatically translate into better skills
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Likelihood of lower literacy proficiencyby education and parental education
Unit
ed S
tate
s
Engla
nd/N. I
rela
nd (UK)
Canad
a
Spain
Irel
and
Ger
man
y
Slova
k Rep
ublic
Net
herla
nds
Flan
ders (B
elgiu
m)
Czech
Rep
ublic
Avera
ge
Austra
liaItal
y
Austria
Korea
Den
mar
k
Japan
Swed
en
Nor
way
Polan
d
Finla
nd
Cypru
s1
Esto
nia1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11 Respondent's education at least high school, neither parent attained high school
Respondent's education lower than high school, at least one parent with high school or higher
Neither respondent nor either parent attained high school
Odds ratio
Reference group: Both respondent’s and parents’ educational attainment is at least high school
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Race/ethnicity of adults with low literacy skills in the US
Level 1
Below Level 1
0 20 40 60 80 100
Hispanic Black White Other
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Mean literacy proficiency and distribution of literacy scores, by
educational attainment
Lower than high school
High school
College
100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400
United States
Score
25th percentile
Mean75th
percentile
Lower than high school
High school
College
100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400
Japan
Score
Qualifications don’t alwaysequal skills
Level 2Level 1 and below
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SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS
Success is increasingly about building skills beyond formal education
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15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
Literacy skills and age
Age
Score
Literacy unadjusted
Numeracy unadjusted
Numeracy adjusted
Literacy adjusted
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SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS
Putting skills to effective useSkills will only translate into better economic and social outcomes if they are used effectively
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Labour productivity and the use of reading skills at work
1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 2.33
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4
4.2
4.4
4.6
3.89385903480046
3.94352167248753
3.83514196109219
3.39450839351136
3.97968165390196
3.25424296870549
3.87328217711172
4.021773869387254.21656219494637
3.81990771652034
3.72810016726723
3.39114704580865
4.09100566095659
4.4188406077966
3.26575941076705
3.49650756146648
3.8607297110406 3.94545778151438
4.09767235231478
3.85439389259152
Use of reading skills at work
(log
) Lab
ou
r p
rod
uct
ivit
y
Slope = 1.118 (0.407)R2 = 0.296
Adjusted predictionSlope = 1.643 (0.504)R2 = 0.371
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Use of skills at work
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
Average
Japan
United States
Most frequent use = 4
Least frequent use = 0
Ind
ex o
f use
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SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS
Equal skills don’t always imply equal opportunities
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Gender gap in wages and in the use of problem-solving skills at work
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 300
5
10
15
20
25
Percentage difference in the use of problem-solving skills at work (men minus women)
Perc
enta
ge d
iffere
nce
betw
een m
en’s
and
wom
en’s
wages (
men m
inus w
om
en)
After accounting for occupations, industry and proficiency
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In Sum• Weak skills more common than on average across countries –
36 million low-skilled adults in the US• Despite high levels of formal education
• Few signs of improvement
• Performance of initial schooling closely linked to adult skills
• Strong influence of socio-economic background
• Migration status and ethnicity remain important• One third of the low-skilled are immigrants• 35% of black and 43% of Hispanic adults have low literacy skills,
compared with 10% of whites, racial differences in skills remain even among adults with similar qualifications
• Strong links to wages and health
• 63% of low-skilled adults are in employment, more than in other countries
• Participation rates in adult training are higher in the US than in most countries at all skill levels
• But those who need training most get the least of it
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SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS
Skills are everybody’s business
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Lessons from
strong performers
Concerted action• to improve basic skills• to tackle inequities
affecting sub-populations with weak skills
• Accepting the relative decline in skills would mean accepting relative decline in the economic sphere, but also in other domains that rely on high levels of basic skills – arts, sciences and intellectual innovation .
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Lessons from
strong performers
Strengthen quality of schooling• Investing in high quality
early childhood education and initial schooling, particularly for children from disadvantaged backgrounds
• Support targeted at disadvantage
• Successful education systems can tackle the majority of basic skills weaknesses by age 15.
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Lessons from
strong performers
Ensure effective and accessible education opportunities for young adults… using strengths of
community college system to support and develop basic skills and offer career options.
• One third of low-skilled US adults under 35 – potential for greater lifetime impact
• Community colleges – an important route back to education, with room for improvement .
• .
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Lessons from
strong performers
Link efforts to improve basic skills to employability… recognizing that good
jobs open up further learning options, while basic skills can often be more readily acquired in practical contexts
• Integrating basic skills development with career preparation – promising approach
• Both for high school students and adults .
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Lessons from
strong performers
Adapt to diversity. Work across all levels of government and across the public and private sectors• Diversity among low-
skilled adults, multiple causes – no single solution
• Policies must be coherent across different areas
• Unmet interest and need: about 3 million low-skilled adults interested in adult education .
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Lessons from
strong performers
Build awareness of the implications of weak basic skills among adults. Support action with evidence• Shared understanding of
the issues consensus for policies
• Raise awareness among the adults concerned and their immediate contacts
• Good data key to effective interventions .
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Find Out More at:
http://skills.oecd.org/skillsoutlook.htm All national and international publications
The complete micro-level database
Without data, you are just another person with an opinion
…and remember:
Twitter@SchleicherEDU