Tim Nicholls U.S. Economy in 2011 Senior Vice President · U.S. Coated Paperboard #1 #1 Global...
Transcript of Tim Nicholls U.S. Economy in 2011 Senior Vice President · U.S. Coated Paperboard #1 #1 Global...
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Tim Nicholls Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Southern Legislative Conf. July 17, 2011
Poised to Take Off? U.S. Economy in 2011
and Beyond . . .
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International Paper: A Global Perspective
Leading global paper & packaging company
$25 billion in revenues
Nearly 60,000 employees
Manufacturing operations in 24 countries
Fortune’s most admired company in industry – eight years
Worldwide presence and customer base
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Streamlined Business Portfolio Improved Positions in more Profitable Segments
Segment Position
Market Segment 2004 2010
U.S. Industrial Packaging #3 #1
U.S. Uncoated Papers #1 #2
U.S. Coated Paperboard #1 #1
Global Market Pulp Secondary #4
U.S. Coated Papers Secondary Exited
U.S. Wood Products Secondary Exited
U.S. Forestland #2 Exited
U.S. Kraft Paper Secondary Exited
U.S. Chemicals Secondary Exited
U.S. Beverage Packaging Secondary Exited
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Pressure Testing the Transformation Plan
Experienced the longest and deepest recession in 60 years
Maintained strong earnings and free cash flow
Entered recovery phase without excess inventory
Recovered recession price erosion quickly
(13%)
(19%)
(11%)
CorrugatedBoxes
UncoatedFreesheet
CoatedPaperboard
Recession Impact on U. S. Industry Demand
Source: RISI, 2008 & 2009 cumulative shipment changes.
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Real GDP By Geographic Region
Source: Global Insight, World Overview tables
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
North America China Europe Latin America Rest of World
2003 2010
Billion $
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Global Containerboard Industry
Source: RISI Forecast Tables (World)
2003-2010
Containerboard
CAGR
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
China Latin America Europe Rest of World North America
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Global Containerboard Industry Box Demand
Source: RISI Forecast Tables (World)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
North America China Europe Latin America Rest of World
2003 2010
Million
Short Tons
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The Advancing China Market
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Brownfield Installation of 200,000 TPY UFS Paper Machine
Region Total Capex
(USD 000’s)
Capex
Per Installed
Annual Ton
(USD)
Duration
(Conceptual
to Start-Up)
(months)
Execution
Complexity
North America 345 1,725 24-28
Brazil 270 1,350 28-32
China 150 750 18-20
No major hindrances
Moderate difficulty
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Our Southern Footprint
70+ of our mills, plants and facilities
40% of our U.S. mfg footprint
30% of our global mfg footprint
20,000+ employees . . . . 1/3 of our population
Nearly $9 billion capital employed in the south
$750 million additional capital spent in 2011
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373 378
390 396
405 401
380 379 380
391 391 395 390
374
345
357 361
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2011 – Demand Still Recovering
Source: Fibre Box Association
2011 1Q Run Rate
U.S. Box Shipments BSF