Tim Miller (CELADE, Tim.Miller@cepal) Carl Mason (UC Berkeley, [email protected])
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Transcript of Tim Miller (CELADE, Tim.Miller@cepal) Carl Mason (UC Berkeley, [email protected])
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PROJECTIONS OF PUBLIC EXPENDITURES ON EDUCATION, HEALTH CARE,
AND PENSIONS IN TEN LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES:
2005-2050.
Tim Miller (CELADE, [email protected])Carl Mason (UC Berkeley, [email protected])
Mauricio Holz (CELADE, [email protected])
July 2009, World Bank
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Key Findings①On average, the fiscal impact of population
aging will be as large in Latin America as in Europe.
②Fiscal impact of population aging varies among the 10 countries – with pension reforms playing a large role.
③Increases in health care obligations are likely to rival those of pensions.
④Population aging greatly reduces the costs of educational investments in the region.
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The Economist, June 27, 2009
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Long-run budget projections
Impacts of demographic changes are profound, but not observed in the short-run.
Mindful of population aging, several governments have recently begun to issue long-run projections of their budgets: European Union, United States, Australia, New Zealand, United Kingdom.
The aim of this paper: long-run projections of public expenditures on education, health care, and pensions for 10 Latin American countries. (Not budgets.)
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Strong age pattern in government spending -> demographic changes have large fiscal impacts.
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Projections for 10 countries
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The Projection Model
Combine NTA age-profiles of benefitswith CELADE population projections.
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Equation 1.Expenditures/GDP can be expressed as
product of demography and policy.
DEMOGRAPHIC DEPENDENCY RATIO
FOR EDUCATION, HEALTH, AND PENSIONS
At-risk Population
÷Working-age Population
BENEFIT GENEROSITY RATIO
FOR EDUCATION, HEALTH, AND
PENSIONS
Benefits per person÷
GDP per working-age person
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Equation 2. [Adding age detail]
• E(t)/GDP(t) = Sum over x { b(x,t) * P(x,t)/P(20-64,t) }
• b(x,t) = age-specific benefits relative to GDP/working-age adult. Taken from NTA project.
• p(x,t) = population at age x in year t. Taken from CELADE.
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Evolution of age-specific benefits
①No change (relative to GDP/worker). ②Reduction over time due to pension reforms.③Move toward or beyond current benefit
levels in OECD countries, as GDP/worker rises in the 10 countries (@ 2.5%/year).
[Can also view OECD targets as expansion of benefits currently enjoyed by top 20-40% of income distribution to everyone].
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Public spending on education as share of GDP
Population aging greatly reduces the costs of educational investments.
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Nicaragua Japan
Spending(% GDP)
1.7% 1.6%
Benefit GenerosityRatio(% GDP/worker)
6.5% 16%
Education Dependency Ratio
0.26 0.10
Spending on Secondary Education
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Youngest Oldest
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Public spending on pensionsas share of GDP
Pension reforms have shifted costs away from public sector.
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Youngest Oldest
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Public spending on health careas share of GDP
Increases in health care obligations will rival those of pensions.
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Youngest Oldest
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Fiscal impact of population aging
Projected to be as large in Latin America as in Europe.
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Youngest Oldest
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Future steps…
• Budget projection?• Education as investment?• Beyond averages?• Probabilistic projection?• An NTA-approach?