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Ticketless Travel Survey For DfT – South Central Franchise Specification June-July 2008 Final Report

11th August 2008Steer Davies Gleave28-32 Upper Ground

London, SE1 9PD+44 (0)20 7919 8500

www.steerdaviesgleave.com

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Results Summary: Fare evasion rates Weighted average for all Southern suburban service groups Low, Central, High Cases

Day/ TimeLow Case

% Fare evasionCentral Case

% Fare evasionHigh Case

% Fare evasion

Mon – Fri 7.2% 8.0% 10.9%

0600-1000 8.7% 9.5% 11.7%

1000-1600 5.8% 6.5% 8.0%

1600-1900 6.2% 7.2% 12.5%

1900-2400 8.9% 10.1% 14.2%

Saturday 7.4% 8.1% 10.6%

Sunday 7.5% 8.2% 10.9%

Overall (weighted average)

7.2% 8.0% 10.9%

High during 0600-

1000 Mon-Fri due to high level of passengers using ticket at invalid time (e.g. Off-peak tickets, railcards not valid in AM peak)

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Contents

Ι

Survey Scope Ι

Survey Methodology Ι

Survey Results Ι

Weighted Fare Evasion and Revenue at Risk Methodology Ι

Weighted Fare Evasion ResultsΙ

Conclusions

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Survey Scope

5

Survey Scope

Ι

As agreed with DfT, survey focussed on Southern suburban networkΙ

5 routes were surveyed:■

London Victoria – Sutton (via West Croydon)■

London Bridge – Beckenham Junction (via Crystal Palace)■

London Victoria – Epsom (via Mitcham Junction)■

East Croydon – Caterham / Tattenham Corner■

London Bridge – London Victoria (via Denmark Hill / Streatham Hill)

Ι

Survey Timetable■

43 shifts between 27th June and 6th July 2008■

Detailed shift schedule provided■

Morning shift: 06:00 – 15:00■

Afternoon shift: 15:00 – 23:00

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Survey Timetable

Ι

All planned engineering works were considered and avoided when designing survey timetable.

Ι

Due to planned engineering works at the weekend, could only survey Victoria – West Croydon section of Victoria – Sutton route on Sunday.

Ι

Days/routes with no service or planned engineering highlighted in timetable below.

Ι

There is no service on London Bridge – Beckenham Junction route on Sundays, therefore no results collected for this route on Sundays.

June July27th 28th 29th 30th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6thFri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun

Victoria - Sutton / West Croydon (am) X X X X XVictoria - Sutton / West Croydon (pm) X X X X

London Bridge - Beckenham (am) X X X XLondon Bridge - Beckenham (pm) X X X

Victoria - Epsom via Mitcham Junction (am) X X X X XVictoria - Epsom via Mitcham Junction (pm) X X X X

E Croydon to Caterham/Tattenham Corner (am) X X X X XE Croydon to Caterham/Tattenham Corner (pm) X X X XVictoai - London Bridge via Denmark Hill (am) X X X X XVictoria - London Bridge via Denmark Hill (pm) XVictoria - London Bridge via Streatham Hill (pm) X X X

Total 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 0 5 3

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Survey Methodology

8

Survey Methodology

Ι

Computerised Survey■

Handheld computers■

Dedicated Software

Ι

Surveyors■

Full briefing provided by SDG and Southern■

Detailed shift schedule provided, indicating exact trains and route sections to survey

■

Recorded information for every passenger in a train carriage, including alighters and those refusing to show their ticket

Ι

Debrief with fieldwork contractor and a representative from Southern■

Observed that there were lots of alighters who were believed to be getting off at their stop, due to surveyed routes being busy suburban routes.

■

Observed that at busy times of day, once one passenger refused, others often followed suit and refused to take part in survey.

Ι

Data analysed and cleaned■

Any miscoded passenger classes were changed

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Ticket and Pass Types

Ι

Surveyors coded passengers’ tickets under the following ticket categories:■

Single■

Return■

PERTIS (Permit to Travel)■

Rail Season Ticket■

Oyster Travelcard■

Paper Travelcard■

Oyster Pre-Pay■

Freedom Pass■

Staff Pass / British Rail Ticket■

Police Pass■

Other Pass / Ticket

Ι

Further details were recorded about the exact type of ticket/pass (e.g. Open Return, Young Persons Railcard) and its validity

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Passenger Class

Ι

Irregularity Profile■

16 Passenger Irregularity Types■

Aggregated:

Valid

No Ticket (Non-payment)

Invalid Ticket (see next slide for breakdown)

Refused

Alighted

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Invalid Ticket

Categories

Non-payment The passenger cannot produce a ticket of any kind

Used at invalid time The ticket or pass is being used at the wrong time of day

Child impersonation The passenger has a child ticket or pass, but is clearly an adult

Used on invalid departure

The ticket is being used invalidly on a restricted service

Journey taken after valid date

The ticket or pass has expired

Journey taken before valid date

The pass is not yet valid

Overriding The passenger has travelled further than the destination shown on their ticket

Forged/Altered The ticket/pass/photocard has been tampered with/forged, defaced or altered

Invalid Class The passenger is travelling in First Class but has a Standard ticket / pass

Misuse of railcard The passenger has a ticket or pass that requires a railcard, but does not possess the appropriate card

No photocard The passenger has a pass but no valid photocard

Transferred use The passenger is using someone else’s pass (photocard does not match)

Invalid use of Oyster Pre-pay

The passenger is trying to use an Oyster card with pre-pay money stored on it

Refusal Passenger refuses to take part in survey

Invalid Ticket

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Survey Results (after data cleaning)

13

Survey Results

Ι

Overall■

20,032 Observations■

319 (1.6%) Refusals■

2,926 (14.6%) Alighters■

17,106 excluding Alighters

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Observations by Route

Passenger Class/ Route

Valid No ticket Invalid ticket

Refused Alighted Total

Victoria - Sutton 3,859 154 103 62 718 4,896

London Bridge – Beckenham Junction

1,976 157 66 68 365 2,632

Victoria - Epsom 3,579 169 68 84 669 4,569

East Croydon - Caterham/ Tattenham Corner

2,770 169 74 75 388 3,476

Victoria - London Bridge

3,395 143 105 30 786 4,459

All routes 15,579 792 416 319 2,926 20,032

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Ticket Irregularities – by Route

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

Non payment Invalid ticket Refused

% P

asse

nger

s

Victoria - Sutton London Bridge - Beckenham Victoria - Epsom East Croydon Victoria - London Bridge

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Ticket Irregularities – by Day Type

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Non payment Invalid ticket Refused

% P

asse

nger

s

Weekday Sat Sun

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0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

Non payment Invalid ticket Refused

% P

asse

nger

s

Weekday 06:00-10:00 Weekday 10:00-16:00 Weekday 16:00-19:00

Weekday 19:00-23:00 Saturday Sunday

Ticket Irregularities – by Day Type and Time Band

High % in AM Peak due to tickets/railcards used at invalid time

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Specific Irregularities – All Routes

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

Non pa

ymen

tUse

d at in

valid

time

Invali

d use

of O

yster

Prep

ay

Overrid

ing

Railca

rd/ P

hotoc

ard Irr

egula

rity

Invali

d dep

arture

/ Afte

r vali

d date

Child i

mperso

natio

n

Other

Refuse

d

Irregularity

% P

asse

nger

s

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Refusals & Alighters Assumptions

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Refusals & Alighters Assumptions

Ι

Three sensitivities on assumptions regarding proportion of refusals and alighters that are fare evaders:

Assumptions for Refusals & Alighters

% Refusals Fare Evaders

% Alighters Fare Evaders

High Case 75% 25%

Central Case 50% Same as average

Low Case Same as average Same as average

Ι

Since a large number of observations in this survey were alighters (14.6%) compared to refusals (1.6%), results are more sensitive to fare evasion assumptions on alighters than refusals.

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Weighted Fare Evasion Results

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Fare evasion rates: Central Case (Central Case: 50% refusals fare evading, % alighters fare evading same as average)

Fare evasion rates by time of day

Victoria - Sutton

London Bridge -

Beckenham

Victoria - Epsom

East Croydon

London Bridge - Victoria

All routes (weighted average)

Mon - Fri 7.7% 12.5% 7.5% 8.2% 6.3% 8.0%

0600-1000 9.9% 11.6% 9.3% 9.2% 8.7% 9.5%

1000-1600 4.1% 12.9% 5.6% 6.4% 5.8% 6.5%

1600-1900 7.7% 7.8% 4.5% 12.4% 3.5% 7.2%

1900-2400 12.3% 18.6% 10.5% 8.2% 6.0% 10.1%

Saturday 5.2% 8.3% 5.3% 12.2% 8.2% 8.1%

Sunday 6.9% 8.2% * 8.8% 8.6% 8.5% 8.2%

Overall (weighted average)

7.5% 12.2% 7.4% 8.5% 6.4% 8.0%

* The % fare evasion is an average of that on other four routes on Sundays, since no service on Sundays on surveyed route in the London Bridge –

Beckenham service group.

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% Valid Tickets by Service Group (High, Central, Low Cases of fare evasion)

70.0%

75.0%

80.0%

85.0%

90.0%

95.0%

100.0%

Victoria -Sutton

London Bridge- Beckenham

Junction

Victoria -Epsom

East Croydon London Bridge- Victoria

All routes(weightedaverage)

Route

% P

asse

nger

s w

ith V

alid

Tic

kets

Low Case Central Case High Case

High Case Fare Evasion much lower than Low and Central Case due to large numbers of alighters compared to refusals

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% Valid Tickets by Type of Day (High, Central, Low Cases of fare evasion)

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

Mon - Fri Saturday Sunday Overall (weightedaverage)

Route

% P

asse

nger

s w

ith V

alid

Tic

kets

Low Case Central Case High Case

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All routes % Valid Tickets by Time of Day (High, Central, Low Cases of fare evasion)

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

Mon - FriTotal

Mon-Fri0600-1000

Mon-Fri1000-1600

Mon-Fri1600-1900

Mon-Fri1900-2400

Saturday Sunday Overall(weightedaverage)

Route

% P

asse

nger

s w

ith V

alid

Tic

kets

Low Case Central Case High Case

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Total Fare Evasion Journeys (Central Case)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Valid No Ticket Invalid Ticket Total

Tota

l Pas

seng

er J

ourn

eys

(Mill

ions

)

Central Case

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Total Fare Evasion Proportions (High, Central, Low Cases)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Valid No Ticket Invalid Ticket

Prop

ortio

n of

tota

l pas

seng

er jo

urne

ys

Low Case Central Case High Case

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% Service Group Revenue at Risk: (Low, Central, High Cases)

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

London Victoria– Sutton

London Bridge –Beckenham

Junction

London Victoria– Epsom

East Croydon –Caterham /Tattenham

Corner

London Bridge –London Victoria

All Routes

Routes

% S

ervi

ce G

roup

Rev

enue

at R

isk

Low Case Central Case High Case

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Comparison of % Service Group Revenue at Risk and % Fare Evasion: (Low, Central, High Cases)

Ι

% Fare Evasion is lower than % Revenue at Risk, since for some types of ticket irregularity the revenue lost is assumed to be < 100% of average yield (e.g. Child impersonation 50% average yield lost)

Ι

For other types of irregularity, including passengers with no ticket, the revenue lost is assumed to be 100% average yield.

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

London Victoria– Sutton

London Bridge– Beckenham

Junction

London Victoria– Epsom

East Croydon –Caterham /Tattenham

Corner

London Bridge– LondonVictoria

All Routes

Routes

% S

ervi

ce G

roup

Rev

enue

at R

isk

/ Fa

re E

vasi

on

% Revenue at Risk% Fare Evasion

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Conclusions

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Revenue Protection Considerations

Ι

Passengers usually have a choice about whether to fare evade or notΙ

They may weigh up the decision to fare evade based on the probability of getting caught and the generalised penalty if they do get caught (money paid, time taken, hassle, embarrassment).

Ι

This is the so called ‘Utility Theory of Rational Thief’:■

Decision to fare evade = fn(Probability of being caught, Penalty if caught)

Ι

Several revenue protection considerations can influence a passenger’s decision to fare evade:

■

Gating at stations■

RPI (Revenue Protection Inspector) deployment■

Penalty fares: at present £20 on Southern networkΙ

Increasing the levels of these revenue protection methods will increase the probability of getting caught or increase the penalty, and therefore reduce the number of decisions made to fare evade.

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Gated Stations on Southern Network

Ι

Some routes surveyed have more gated stations than others:

■

Victoria – Epsom: 4 gated stations■

Victoria – Sutton: 4 gated stations■

London Bridge – Victoria: 2 gated stations■

London Bridge – Beckenham Junction: 1 gated station

■

East Croydon – Caterham / Tattenham Corner: 1 gated station

Ι

Other gated stations on Southern network:

■

Brighton■

Hove■

Eastbourne■

Redhill■

Lewes■

Worthing■

Chichester■

Horsham

Gated Station

Surveyed Route

Victoria Ι Victoria – EpsomΙ Victoria - SuttonΙ London Bridge – Victoria

London Bridge

Ι London Bridge – VictoriaΙ

London Bridge – Beckenham Junction

Balham Ι Victoria – EpsomΙ Victoria - Sutton

Sutton Ι Victoria – EpsomΙ Victoria - Sutton

West Croydon

Ι Victoria - Sutton

Epsom Ι Victoria – Epsom

East Croydon

Ι

East Croydon – Caterham / Tattenham Corner

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Conclusions

Ι

Weighted total fare evasion is estimated at 8.0% for Southern suburban service groups (Central Case assumptions)

■

This proportion is consistent with results from other rail fare evasion surveysΙ

Weighted results by Service Group■

Similar level of fare evasion across service groups, except London Bridge – Beckenham Junction which has a higher level of fare evasion (12.2%)

Ι

Weighted results by Day and Time of Day■

Slightly higher level of fare evasion at weekends compared to weekdays■

Higher level of fare evasion during 0600-1000 and 1900-2400■

This is partly due to restrictions on tickets in the morning peak and perhaps levels of RPI coverage in the evening

Ι

The Central Case assumptions on alighters (same as average fare evasion) and refusals (50% fare evaders) are our best estimate on levels of fare evasion.

Ι

This survey contained a large proportion of alighters, therefore results are sensitive to assumptions made about alighters, as in the High Case fare evasion assumptions (25% alighters fare evaders, 75% refusals fare evaders).

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Conclusions

Ι

Fare evasion levels and therefore revenue at risk is influenced by different revenue protection decisions made by the train operator

■

More gating at stations, greater RPI deployment, and higher penalty fares will all act to reduce the level of fare evasion and revenue at risk.

Ι

Issues may exist with regard to ticket purchasing■

The provision of ticket windows/machines and other methods of purchasing tickets must be considered

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End