Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS)

Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW)

3SAQS Pilot Project Modeling OverviewUniversity of North Carolina (UNC-IE)

ENVIRON International Corporation (ENVIRON)

October 10, 2014

2

Summary• 3SAQS Pilot Project Timeline and Deliverables• Emissions Inventory Improvements• Key Collaborations and Interactions• Modeling Highlights

– WRF Meteorology– SMOKE Emissions– CAMx Air Quality

• Oil and Gas Inventories• Monitoring Network Analysis• 3SDW Support and Tool Development• Status and Next Steps

3

3SAQS Pilot Project Timeline

2012 2013 2014

OCT 2012Pilot Project

Start

JAN 2013EI Improvement Meetings With

CO, UT, WY

NOV-DEC 2012CO, UT, WY

2008 EI Analysis and Evaluation

FEB 20143SAQS Monitoring

Network Report

OCT 2013WRF 2011

Sensitivities

AUG 2014CAMx 2008b,

WRF 2011, 2011 Oil & Gas EI,

2011a Emissions

JUL 2014Final 2008 Emissions

OCT 2014CAMx 2011a

MPE

SEP 2014SMOKE 2011a

NOV 2014-APR 2015

CAMx 2011 Sensitivities

AUG 2012CAMx 2008a

JUN 2012Emissions VOC

Reactivity Analysis

FEB-MAY 20122008 EI

Modeling

MAR-JUN 20142011 EI

Modeling

4

3SAQS Pilot Project Major Deliverables• Modeling Platforms

– Modeling input/output data, software, and scripts

– 2008 version A and B• SMOKE and CAMx• Base and Future Year

(2020)

– 2011 version A• WRF, SMOKE, and

CAMx• Base and Future Year

(2020)

4

• Emissions– 2011 O&G inventory– Data updates for 3-

state sources– 2008, 2011, 2020

inventories• Fusion of NEI and 3-

state inventories

• Monitoring Network Assessment

5

3SAQS Pilot Project Major Deliverables• Key Analysis Products

– Inventory comparisons– VOC reactivity analysis– Model performance

evaluations• CAMx 2008• WRF 2011• CAMx 2011

– Methane inventory analysis

5

• Modeling Sensitivities– Boundary conditions– US background air

quality– Ammonia emissions– Oil and gas emissions– Winter ozone

6

Key Findings: Meteorology• Completed 2011 WRF

modeling and evaluation• 2008 and 2011 WRF

performance acceptable and comparable

• WRF configuration based on systematic configuration testing

• Episodic performance issues, particularly for winter inversions

6

Observed May 2011 Total Precip (in.)

WRF May 2011 Total Precip (in.)

7

Key Findings: Emissions• New 2011 O&G EI• 2008 > 2011 > 2020

– Trends vary by state/sector/pollutant

– General decrease in emissions through time

– Exception is VOC from O&G sources

7

8

Key Findings: Emissions

• Collaboration with CO, UT, WY state DAQs to obtain data, review emissions, and get feedback on protocols/evaluations

• Updates to key sectors/pollutants– Agricultural NH3 – point CAFO locations used to improve

the spatial allocation of livestock emissions– On-road mobile – link-based VMT from CO used to improve

spatial allocation of on-road mobile sources in CO– Review of 3SAQS updates to temporal and chemical

speciation profiles for nonroad and nonpoint sources

8

9

Key Findings: Emissions

• 2020 – 2011 Emissions– Mostly decreases for all

sectors/pollutants/states except O&G VOC/TOG

– Plots show differences by state (CO, UT, WY)

9

10

Key Findings: Emissions

10

11

Key Findings: Emissions

11

• Methane– 3SAQS one of the first U.S.

regional CTM studies to look at active methane emissions

– Tracer for important regional emissions sectors (O&G and ag)

– O&G is the largest source in the current inventory

– Missing significant agricultural sources: enteric fermentation and livestock waste

12

Emissions ReactivityRTOG = TOG * Profile Total MIR

RTOG/TOG = Relative emission reactivity

Key Findings: Emissions

13

• Emissions Reactivity– Reactivity-based analysis of

inventories focuses on sources with greatest ozone formation potential

– Different sources are dominant using reactivity weighting vs. mass-based analysis

– Reactivity analysis is dependent on validity of inventory and chemical speciation

Key Findings: Emissions

14

Key Findings: Air Quality 2008 Annual 4th Highest Daily Max 8-hour Average O3

14

Orange is the cutoff for different O3 standards 65 ppb 70 ppb

75 ppb

15

Key Findings: Air Quality 2020 Annual 4th Highest Daily Max 8-hour Average O3

15

Orange is the cutoff for different O3 standards 65 ppb 70 ppb

75 ppb

16

Key Findings: Air Quality

16

• 4th highest MDA8 O3 decreases up to 25 ppb

• Widespread decreases of 1-3 ppb for most of the 3-state region

• 1-3 ppb increases in O&G development areas

2020 - 2008

17

Key Findings: Air Quality

17

• 4th highest MDA8 O3 decreases up to 25 ppb

• Widespread decreases of 1-3 ppb for most of the 3-state region

• 1-3 ppb increases in O&G development areas

2020 - 2008

18

Key Findings: Air Quality 2008 Annual 4th Highest Daily Max 8-hour Average O3

18

Orange is the cutoff for different O3 standards 65 ppb 70 ppb

75 ppb

19

Key Findings: Air Quality 2011 Annual 4th Highest Daily Max 8-hour Average O3

19

Orange is the cutoff for different O3 standards 65 ppb 70 ppb

75 ppb

20

Key Findings: Air QualityAnnual Average PM2.5

20

Orange is the cutoff for 12 ug/m3 2008 2020 (2008-based)

2011

Oil and Gas Emissions Development Activities

• 2011 base year inventories developed for all major basins in the 3 states– Uinta (UT)– Piceance (CO)– D-J (CO)– All Wyoming Basins (WY)– Raton Basin (CO/NM)– Paradox Basin (UT)– South San Juan Basin (NM)

• 2020 projections developed for all basins

• 2011/2020 emissions processed through SMOKE and model-ready

Oil and Gas Emissions Development Activities

• 2011 base year inventories provide updated county-level and by-source category NOx and VOC emissions

• Developed by projecting older inventories forward to 2011 considering changes in production and activity, as well as regulatory effects on emission sources

• Further projections conducted out to 2020 using historic development trends and forecasts, regulatory effects on inventories

• Emissions processed and gridded using SMOKE including industry-specific speciation profiles and detailed spatial allocation of wells and production

Forecasting Activity to 2020

2020 gas production forecast in the Uinta Basin

0

100,000,000

200,000,000

300,000,000

400,000,000

500,000,000

600,000,000

700,000,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Gas

Pro

ducti

on [m

cf]

Year

Uinta Basin: Conventional Gas Well Gas Production

Conventional GasWell GasProduction (mcf)projected

Projection:- Linear- Temporal Basis: 2010-2012

Example Controls Analysis

Federal regulatory controls in the Piceance Basin in 2020

Source Category Regulation

Enforcing Agency Effective Date

RegulationImplementation in the 2020 Piceance

Basin Emissions ProjectionsFederal

Drill RigsNonroad engine Tier standards (1-4)

US EPAPhase in from 1996 -

2014

Assumed fleetwide emissions control based on EPA NONROAD model default estimates

Emissions reduction due to fleet turn over

Workover RigsNonroad engine Tier standards (1-4)

US EPAPhase in from 1996 -

2014

Assumed fleetwide emissions control based on EPA NONROAD model default estimates

Emissions reduction due to fleet turn over

Well Completions Subpart OOOO US EPA Phase in from 2015

Assumed all gas well completions from 2015 make use of REC technology with a 95% efficiency

Emissions reduction due to RE Ctechnology

Oil and Gas Inventory Results for 2011/2020

2011 2020 2011 2020 2011 2020 2011 2020 2011 2020D-J Basin 21,063 29,987 130,811 383,928 15,757 24,494 63 107 647 631Piceance Basin 17,171 18,994 67,427 78,254 11,825 14,212 445 546 907 717North San Juan Basin 5,593 5,392 2,079 2,036 6,285 6,027 1 <1 40 41Uinta Basin 17,834 28,883 113,620 180,622 12,234 23,999 49 44 651 943South San Juan Basin 40,789 42,119 45,345 44,045 21,899 23,055 733 698 566 512Wind River Basin 1,224 1,267 6,139 6,714 2,695 2,920 2,546 2,778 158 167Powder River Basin 10,569 10,228 52,707 88,641 7,484 7,270 205 315 520 503Sotuhwest Wyoming Basin 12,766 12,761 61,325 71,704 7,798 8,022 1,512 1,444 539 560Big Horn Basin 2,314 2,090 3,697 3,641 984 892 4,184 4,054 75 61Paradox Basin* 1,045 975 1,624 1,590 830 774 215 200 19 17Raton Basin* 6,427 6,427 621 620 5,762 5,763 5 5 24 24

Emissions (tons/yr)

BasinNOx VOC CO Sox PM

* Permitted emissions only

Example Emissions by Source Category

2011 NOx emissions by source category in the D-J Basin

Drill rigs25%

Exempt engines19%

Heaters4%

Workover rigs3%

Compressor Engines47%

Other Categories1%

NOx Emissions Basin-wide (tons/year): 21,063NOx Emissions Basin-wide (tons/year): 21,063

Example Emissions by Source Category

Survey-based Fugitives8%

Condensate Tanks72%

Pneumatic devices6%

Pneumatic pumps1%

Natural Gas Production, Flares

2%Truck loading of

condensate liquid1%

Venting - blowdowns2%

Compressor Engines2%

Other Categories3%

VOC Emissions Basin-wide (tons/year): 130,811

2011 VOC emissions by source category in the D-J Basin

Example Emissions by County

2011 NOx emissions by county in the Uinta Basin

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Carbon Duchesne Emery Grand Uintah Wasatch

NO

x E

mis

sio

ns

(to

ns/

year

)

County

Other Categories

Oil Well Truck Loading

Midstream (Unclassified)

Oil Tanks

Condensate tanks

Dehydrator

Venting - Compressor Shutdown

Venting - Compressor Startup

Artificial Lift Engines

Miscellaneous engines

Fugitives

Pneumatic pumps

Pneumatic devices

Heaters

Drill rigs

Compressor engines

Example Processed and Gridded O&G Emissions

June 2011 gridded oil and gas emissions in 4-km modeling domain

Ongoing Oil and Gas Tasks and Next Steps

• Ongoing work– Data mining of US EPA Tribal Minor New Source Review (MNSR)

data on tribal land to improve emissions sources – Guidance document on incorporation of 3SAQS regional

emissions into project analyses

• Potential future work– Improved projection methodologies for midstream and other

permitted sources or sources provided by state agencies– Additional survey efforts to update key source category data in

key basins

31

Monitoring Network Assessment RecommendationsOperations Through 2017

• Assessment of ozone monitoring data, meteorology, and unmonitored areas, as well as expected changes in emissions indicate that the existing 3SAQS cooperator group-funded site locations/areas should continue operating through 2017.

• Recommending slight changes to some existing site locations, as well as adding new sites.

• There are two sets of recommendations, for calendar 2014 and for 2015 to 2017.

• Assessment was reviewed and approved by the Steering Committee in May 2014.– Final assessment materials available on the 3-State Data Warehouse

website (http://views.cira.colostate.edu/documents/Projects/TSDW/Projects/MonitoringNetworkAssessment/)

31

32

Prototype Web-Based Source Apportionment Visualization Tool

• Develop on-line tool for the 3SDW that can visualize ozone and PM source apportionment modeling results

• Use WestJumpAQMS state-specific and source category-specific ozone source apportionment results to test the tool– Daily maximum 8-hour ozone for Geographic (state-

specific) and Source Category SA runs• In 3SAQS will expand from 10 highest ozone days

to all days and monitors in domain

33

SrcApp Visualization Selection• Currently two options

Select Rocky Flats North, CO on July 9, 2008

Geographic

Source Category

35

Web-Based SA Visualization Tool

• Refine prototype SA visualization tool• Populate with 3SAQS CAMx and CMAQ SA

runs when available– Daily maximum 8-hour ozone and 24-hour PM2.5

concentrations at all monitors in domain– Annual deposition and daily visibility impairment

at IMPROVE monitors• Implement on 3SDW

36

Status and Next Steps• Pilot study modeling work status• Plans for October 2014 – April 2015

– 2011 CMAQ modeling– 2011 AQ sensitivity modeling

• Boundary Conditions• Background Air Quality• Oil & Gas• Winter Ozone• Ammonia• Vertical Transport• MOVES2014

• Reference 9/30 presentation

37

3SAQS Pilot Study Modeling StatusDeliverable Status

2008 Modeling Platform

2008 Modeling Protocol Completed (4/2014)

SMOKE 36/12-km 2008a Completed (5/2014)

SMOKE 36/12-km 2008b Completed (7/2014)

CAMx 36/12-km 2008b Completed (8/2014)

CAMx 2008a MPE Report Ready for Review (9/2014)

SMOKE 36/12-km 2020a_08 Completed (7/2014)

CAMx 36/12-km 2020a_08 Completed (8/2014)

2011 Modeling Platform

2011 Modeling Protocol Completed (7/2014)

WRF 36/12/4-km 2011a Completed (5/2014)

WRF 2011 MPE Report Ready for Review (8/2014)

SMOKE 36/12/4-km 2011a Completed (8/2014)

CAMx 36/12/4-km 2011a Completed (9/2014)

CAMx 36/12/4-km 2020a_11 Running (11/2014)

38

2011 US Background Air Quality• July 2011 US Background