Three Approaches to the Three Approaches to the PresidencyPresidency

HistoricalHistorical InstitutionalInstitutional CharacterCharacter

1. Historical1. Historical

Historical: Presidential PowerHistorical: Presidential Power

War: War: Presidents’ Military Service

Historical: EligibilityHistorical: Eligibility

Who can be Who can be president?president?

2. Institutional Approach2. Institutional Approach

Basic StructureBasic Structure

US Constitution

Executive

Legislative Judicial

Cabinet-Style Government Government(standard organizational structure)(standard organizational structure)

PresidentSecretary of… Secretary of… Secretary of…

Deputy Sec of…

Undersecretary of…

Undersecretary of…

Assistant Secretary of…

Assistant Secretary of…

Assistant Secretary of…

Career vs. AppointeeCareer vs. Appointee

Transition 2000-2001Transition 2000-2001

ClintonClinton WW

CareerCareer

Advisors to the PresidentAdvisors to the President

3. Character3. Character

Character: The GoodCharacter: The Good

Character: The BadCharacter: The Bad

Character: The RidiculousCharacter: The Ridiculous

What decides the outcome of a President’s attempts to pass legislation or to get his agenda implemented?

Persuasion-Bargaining Model The individual President

matters Success or failure in the

presidency is idiosyncratic What matters?

• The President’s character• The President’s political skill

and strategy• The President’s intelligence• The President’s imagination

Institutional Model The individual President does

not matter Success of failure in the

presidency is based on institutional and historical forces

What matters?• The political pressures on the

president• The institutional relationships

of the US government (Congress, Depts, lobby groups)

• Party control of the executive and legislative branches

• The historical context

Cycles of Political TimeCycles of Political Time

1. Politics ofReconstruction

2. Politics ofArticulation

3. Politics ofDisjunction

The New Deal OrderThe New Deal Order

1.FDR1933-45

2. LBJ1963-69

3. Carter1977-81

Key IssuesKey Issues

1.1. Presidential DominationPresidential Domination

2.2. Institutional EnvironmentInstitutional Environment

3.3. Cycles of Presidential PowerCycles of Presidential Power

1. Presidential Domination1. Presidential Domination

Lincoln MemorialLincoln Memorial

Jefferson MemorialJefferson Memorial

Mt. RushmoreMt. Rushmore

FDR MemorialFDR Memorial

Speaker of the House Monument?Speaker of the House Monument?

2. Institutional Environment2. Institutional Environment

TimeTime

State Governments

State Courts

Congress

Federal Judiciary

People

Media

BureaucracyPresident

3. Cycles of Presidential Power3. Cycles of Presidential Power

LBJ/Nixon LBJ/Nixon Reagan Reagan Bush 43Bush 43

Carter/FordCarter/Ford Bush Bush 41/Clinton41/Clinton

Early Debates on the ExecutiveEarly Debates on the Executive

HamiltonHamilton Madison Madison

Presidential powerPresidential power checks and checks and balances balances

Creating the ExecutiveCreating the Executive

Articles of Confederation US Constitution The Federalist Papers Anti-Federalist PapersAnti-Federalist Papers

Enough Intro…Enough Intro…

Design of the US GovernmentDesign of the US Government

Articles of ConfederationUS Constitution

Executive

Legislative Judicial

Institutional PowersInstitutional Powers Article One:Article One:

Congressional PowersCongressional Powers Declare WarDeclare War Raise and support Raise and support

armed forcesarmed forces Regulate armed Regulate armed

forcesforces Senate: approve Senate: approve

executive branch executive branch officialsofficials

Senate: advise and Senate: advise and consent on treatiesconsent on treaties

Tax and Spend Tax and Spend moneymoney

Article Two: Article Two:

Executive PowersExecutive Powers Make treatiesMake treaties Appoint officials Appoint officials

and ambassadorsand ambassadors Commander-in-chief Commander-in-chief

of armed forcesof armed forces

Supreme CourtJudicial ReviewJudicial Review

Marbury V. Madison 1803

““Implied Powers” in Implied Powers” in ConstitutionConstitution

McCulloch V. Maryland 1819

John Marshall, Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, 1801-1835

Executive OrdersExecutive OrdersBy President since FDRBy President since FDR

Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation 9/22/629/22/62

FDR’s Orders 1937FDR’s Orders 1937 Carter creates FEMA 7/20/79Carter creates FEMA 7/20/79 Bush creates HSC and OHS 10/8/01Bush creates HSC and OHS 10/8/01 Bush Military Order on Unlawful Bush Military Order on Unlawful

Enemy Combatants 11/13/01Enemy Combatants 11/13/01 Obama Executive Order on Obama Executive Order on

Immigration 11/20/14Immigration 11/20/14

Choosing a PresidentChoosing a President

Electoral VotesElectoral Votes 12th Amendment12th Amendment Election ResultsElection Results Electoral College RulesElectoral College Rules

Electoral CollegeElectoral College

Number of electoral votes: 538Number of electoral votes: 538• Number of House of Reps seats Number of House of Reps seats

Based on populationBased on population

• Number of Senate seatsNumber of Senate seats Two per StateTwo per State

State wide electionsState wide elections Winner of state vote gets Winner of state vote gets

electoral voteselectoral votes Winner needs 270Winner needs 270

Actually Electing the President 2012

November 6, 2012—Election Day: The voters in each State chose electors to serve in the Electoral College.  

December 17, 2012—Meeting of Electors: The electors in each State met to select the President and Vice President of the United States.

December 26, 2012—Deadline for Receipt of Electoral Votes: Federal and State officials had to have the electoral votes in hand. 

January 4, 2013—Electoral Votes Counted in Congress.

Electoral Votes 2008Electoral Votes 2008

Electoral College 2016Electoral College 2016

Red States 2016 (180 EV)Red States 2016 (180 EV)

Blue States 2016 (215 EV)Blue States 2016 (215 EV)

Swing States (143 EV)Swing States (143 EV)

2012 Results (332-206)2012 Results (332-206)Obama VictoryObama Victory

Problems?Problems?

18241824 18761876 18881888 20002000 US Election AtlasUS Election Atlas

Before the 12Before the 12thth Amendment Amendment