Thoughts on ENERGY John Kramlich Professor of Mechanical Engineering Phil Malte Professor of...
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Transcript of Thoughts on ENERGY John Kramlich Professor of Mechanical Engineering Phil Malte Professor of...
Thoughts on Thoughts on ENERGYENERGY
John Kramlich
Professor of Mechanical Engineering
Phil Malte
Professor of Mechanical Engineering
QUESTIONS to ANSWERQUESTIONS to ANSWER
• US Energy: Where are we US Energy: Where are we now?now?
• Where are we going?Where are we going?
• How about the local scene?How about the local scene?
Transportation Heating Electricity Total
Petroleum
Coal
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Total
US Energy in Quads (1.0E+15 Btu)
Transportation Heating Electricity Total
Petroleum 24 12 1 21-Import
16-Domestic
Coal
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Total
US Energy in Quads (1.0E+15 Btu)
Transportation Heating Electricity Total
Petroleum 24 12 1 21-Import
16-Domestic
Coal 0 0 20 24
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Total
US Energy in Quads (1.0E+15 Btu)
Transportation Heating Electricity Total
Petroleum 24 12 1 21-Import
16-Domestic
Coal 0 0 20 24
Natural Gas
1 18 3 22
Nuclear
Hydro
Total
US Energy in Quads (1.0E+15 Btu)
Transportation Heating Electricity Total
Petroleum 24 12 1 21-Import
16-Domestic
Coal 0 0 20 24
Natural Gas
1 18 3 22
Nuclear 0 0 7 7
Hydro 0 0 3 3
Total 25 30 34
US Energy in Quads (1.0E+15 Btu)
Quads
Transportation Heating Electricity Total
Petroleum 24 12 1 21-Import
16-Domestic
Coal 0 0 20 24
Natural Gas
1 18 3 22
Nuclear 0 0 7 7
Hydro 0 0 3 3
Total 25 30 34
US Energy in Quads (1.0E+15 Btu)
GASOLINE ENGINE EFFICIENCYGASOLINE ENGINE EFFICIENCY
FUEL 100%
Engine 35%
Start/stop, running cold, running off “sweet spot” (hard acceleration), oversized engines, throttle losses
20%
Well-to-wheels 15-17%
Why? We ask a lot from a car
Hybrid Gasoline-ElectricHybrid Gasoline-Electric
Hybrid Advantages
• Ideal: Engine runs near one RPM and torque (engines oversized)
• Regenerative braking• Hard acceleration covered by battery• Avoids big losses of city driving• Since wind friction goes with speed
squared, highway mileage often lower than city (35 mph best!)
Fuel Cell PropulsionFuel Cell Propulsion
The Fuel Cell: An Externally-Fueled Battery
Fuel Cell Issues
• Platinum for cell• Expensive
machining• Expensive
membrane
• Auto: 35$/kW• Fuel cell: 300$/kW• Must find ways to
get cost down or may not compete
Hydrogen Issues
Hydrogen IssuesHydrogen Issues
• Make H2 in fuel plant? Natural gas to H2 leads to a significant loss in fuel value (recover only ~60% of original energy).
• Store H2 on vehicle? Safety? Space?
• Make H2 from gasoline? Carry a chemical plant on your car?
““Well-to-Wheel” EfficienciesWell-to-Wheel” Efficiencies
Fuel Prod
Eng W-W CO2 g/km
Ems
Gas-now 85% 18% 15% 220 Low
Gas-adv 85% 23% 20 % 170 Ultra/S
Hybrid 85% 36% 31% 110 Ultra/S
FC-HC 60% 50% 30% 110 Super
FC-MeOH 50% 36% 18% 110 Super
Running Out of Oil?Running Out of Oil?
• Record of Consumption and Production in USA
• Resource
• Cheap versus Expensive Oil
Oil in the USAOil in the USA
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
BIL
LIO
N B
TU
Consumption of Oil in USA
Domestic Crude Oil Production
Resource (economically Resource (economically recoverable billions of barrels)recoverable billions of barrels)
Crude Oil ~1000 World (25% recvy)
Shale Oil ~17000 World: 25 gal/ton
Shale Oil ~3000 US+Canada: 25
Tar Sands 100-1000 US,Canada,Venzl
ANWR 6-16 3-8% of US use
Use Rate 7 bbo/yr USA
Use Rate 25 bbo/yr WORLD
MessageMessage
• The supply of Cheap-to-Recover crude oil is limited – there is about a 40 years supply at the present consumption rate.
• The world is becoming increasingly dependent on Middle Eastern crude oil.
• There is a lot of Expensive-to-Recover oil – monetarily and environmentally expensive.
• Should transportation move away from oil?
Transportation Heating Electricity Total
Petroleum 24 12 1 21-Import
16-Domestic
Coal 0 0 20 24
Natural Gas
1 18 3 22
Nuclear 0 0 7 7
Hydro 0 0 3 3
Total 25 30 34
US Energy in Quads (1.0E+15 Btu)
Conventional Power Plant
Air
Coal: 100%
CO2 H2O SO2 NO
Particles
~36%
~64%
Generator
Scrubber for SO2 Catalyst for NO Electrostatic Filter for Particles
Steam
Pump
Cooling Water
Air Pump
Fuel
Burner Turbine
Generator
Hot Exhaust
Simple Gas Turbine
Generator
Generator
Gas Turbine
Generators recover ~58% of fuel energy Losses are ~42% No need for SO2, NO, particle cleanup Still make CO2
CO2
Hot Exhaust
Natural Gas
Air
~42%
Pump
Cooling Water
Modern Combined Cycle Power Plant
Coal and Gas Prices
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
$/m
illio
n B
tu
Gas
Coal
Coal for Combined Cycles
Air Air Seperator Gasifier
N2
Coal
S, N2
O2
Water
Generator
Generator
Gas Turbine
Hot Exhaust
CO H2
Fuel Cleaning
Air
CO2 Cleanup?
Transportation Heating Electricity Total
Petroleum 24 12 1 21-Import
16-Domestic
Coal 0 0 20 24
Natural Gas
1 18 3 22
Nuclear 0 0 7 7
Hydro 0 0 3 3
Total 25 30 34
US Energy in Quads (1.0E+15 Btu)
Natural Gas in USANatural Gas in USA
0
4000000
8000000
12000000
16000000
20000000
24000000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
BIL
LIO
N B
TU
Consumption of Nat Gas in USA
Domestic Production of Nat Gas
Natural Gas for ElectricityNatural Gas for Electricity4% average yearly growth rate4% average yearly growth rate
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
BIL
LIO
N C
U F
T
Natural Gas Prices
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
$/m
illio
n B
tu
May be priced out of some markets
Transportation Heating Electricity Total
Petroleum 24 12 1 21-Import
16-Domestic
Coal 0 0 20 24
Natural Gas
1 18 3 22
Nuclear 0 0 7 7
Hydro 0 0 3 3
Total 25 30 34
US Energy in Quads (1.0E+15 Btu)
HydropowerHydropower
Turbine/Generator Set
Some EngineeringSome Engineering
Energy = g[mass of water thru turbine] X [height of dam]
• Low reservoirs reduce effective height
• Reduced river flows cut mass available
• 300 W projection-TV operated for one hour = one ton of water through Grand Coulee Dam.
Washington Electric Power Washington Electric Power Capacities and Actual Use (1998)Capacities and Actual Use (1998)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
PO
WE
R (
MW
)
The Big FiveThe Big Five
010002000300040005000600070008000
Po
wer
(MW
)
What Next?What Next?
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1
Total
Grand Coulee
Chief Joesph
Centralia Coal
Rocky Reach
WNP Nuclear
Proposed Combined Cycle
A Tale of Two HousesA Tale of Two Houses
• Malte• 3500 ft2
• Gas furnace, hot water, range-top
• Balance electric• PSE
• Kramlich• 2000 ft2
• All electric• Heat pump furnace• SCL
Annual Energy ConsumptionAnnual Energy Consumption
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
KW
H /
YR
Kramlich-ElectricMalte-ElectricMalte-Electric+Nat Gas
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
CE
NT
S /
KW
H
• Heat is present in all air• But heat flows only from hot to cold• So heat in outside air won’t directly warm your house• Use electricity to “pump” heat from outside into your house• Better than just using electricity alone to get heat• Multiplies value of electricity
Heat Pump
Heat Pump
1 kW Electricity
2 kW Heat from
Air
3 kW Heat to House
MessageMessage
• Larger house requires more energy.
• Electricity gives more heat (per unit energy input) than gas if a heat pump is used.
• But: Electricity costs more, which is a reflection of its greater utility.
Solar PV?Solar PV?
• Panel+BOS Costs = $750/kw-peak (grid-tied)• 12 kw System = $90,000• Capacity Factor = 12% (20% in AZ)• Power generated = 12,600 kW-hr/year
(Kramlich: 18,000-24,000, Malte: 11,000-15,000)
• Simple Cost over 30 year life = 24¢/kW-hr• Arizona: 14¢/kW-hr
Vansycle Project: Wallula
Stateline Project, Wallula • 450 Turbines• 300 MW max• 70,000 homes
Seattle City Light and Seattle City Light and StatelineStateline
• 10/18/01 in PI:– 50 MW now– 150 MW future– 175 MW maybe– $48.50/MWH
• Stateline first phase: 265 MW peak from 400 turbines
WRAP UPWRAP UPFUELFUEL USAUSA WORLDWORLD TRENDTREND
OilOil 39% 34%
Nat GasNat Gas 23% 20%
CoalCoal 22% 20% ?
NuclearNuclear 8% 6% ?
HydroHydro 4% 6% ?
BiomassBiomass 4% 14% ?
Solar&WindSolar&Wind
ElectricityElectricity
Renewable/Global Warming
• If CO2 avoidance key: Nuclear, biomass, CO2 sequestration, solar, wind, tidal, hydro
• If renewable is also key, remove nuclear, unless fusion is solved
• Current: Solar=0.069 Q, Wind=0.12 Q. Biomass=2.9 out of 100