THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign

and Tropical Cyclone Structure-08

Toward Better Understanding of Typhoon Life Cycle

T. Nakazawa1

P. Harr2, S. C. Jones3, and D. Parsons4

JMA/MRI1,, NPS2, Univ. of Karsruhe3, WMO4

CAS TECO Incheon , Korea 16 November 2009

The background picture was taken by Yomiuri Shinbun on Sep. 11 2008

Upgraded Russian Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPYRadiosonde Network for IPY

U.S. (NOAA)U.S. (NOAA)

WinterWinter

NOAA G-4 andNOAA G-4 and

Air Force C-130sAir Force C-130s

JapanJapanPalauPalau

Typhoon Landfall

EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada

[DLR Falcon, NRL P-3]

WMOWMOWCRP/WWRPWCRP/WWRP

Asian/IndianAsian/IndianMonsoonMonsoon

U.S.U.S.ONR/NSFONR/NSF

TCS-08TCS-08[NRL P-3, WC-130][NRL P-3, WC-130]

THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts

SoWMex

TH08

PROBEX

TCS-08, TC formation, structure, intensification, satellite validation,targeted observations

Upgraded Russian Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPYRadiosonde Network for IPY

U.S. (NOAA)U.S. (NOAA)

WinterWinter

NOAA G-4 andNOAA G-4 and

Air Force C-130sAir Force C-130s

JapanJapanPalauPalau

Typhoon Landfall

EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada

[DLR Falcon, NRL P-3]

WMOWMOWCRP/WWRPWCRP/WWRP

Asian/IndianAsian/IndianMonsoonMonsoon

U.S.U.S.ONR/NSFONR/NSF

TCS-08TCS-08[NRL P-3, WC-130][NRL P-3, WC-130]

THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts

SoWMex

TH08

PROBEX

Extra observations and targetedobservations to improvetrack prediction

Additional Targeting Component at DLR and FZK, Germany

Upgraded Russian Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPYRadiosonde Network for IPY

U.S. (NOAA)U.S. (NOAA)

WinterWinter

NOAA G-4 andNOAA G-4 and

Air Force C-130sAir Force C-130s

JapanJapanPalauPalau

Typhoon Landfall

EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada

[DLR Falcon, NRL P-3]

WMOWMOWCRP/WWRPWCRP/WWRP

Asian/IndianAsian/IndianMonsoonMonsoon

U.S.U.S.ONR/NSFONR/NSF

TCS-08TCS-08[NRL P-3, WC-130][NRL P-3, WC-130]

THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts

SoWMex

TH08

PROBEX

Extratropical transition,downstream impacts, targeted observations

Additional Extratropical Transition Components at DLR and FZK, Germany

Operations center, Monterey, CA

Driftsonde center,

Driftsonde Balloon release,Hawaii

Aircraft locations, andaircraft operations centers

Guam

Japan

Taiwan

Okinawa

THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC)THORPEX (The Observing-System Research and Predictability Experiment)

AndTropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments (TCS-08)

Collaborative Efforts

Operations and Observation Strategies

• Mission objectives– NRL P-3

• TC formation, structure, intensification, TUTT structure, targeting for formation, extratropical transition

– WC-130J• TC formation, structure, intensification, satellite

validation, targeting for formation and track, extratropical transition

– FALCON• Typhoon targeting, extratropical transition, targeting,

ridge-building, tropical water vapor transport– DOTSTAR

• Typhoon targeting

Operations: Aircraft

Tropical Circulation Systems by the numbers…

• During August – September, there were 12 total systems > TD intensity over the western North Pacific– 4 typhoons, 4 tropical storms, 4 TDs

• 51 TCS systems– With a few recycled a time or two

• 11 systems in which aircraft missions were flown– 4 typhoons, 1 TD, 1 ex-TS, 5 others

• 72% of all missions were flown on the 4 typhoon cases– 6 Nuri, 28 Sinlaku, 5 Hagiput, 15 Jangmi (54/75 = 72%)

Operations by the numbers…• Over 500 aircraft mission flight hours

– 216 C-130, 179 P-3, 83 Falcon, 37 DOTSTAR• 76 missions

– 25 Falcon, 23 C-130, 21 P-3, 7 DOTSTAR• 7 airfields

– Andersen AB, Guam; NAF Atsugi, Japan; Kadena AB, Japan; Taiwan, Yokota AB, Japan; MCAS Iwakuni, Japan; Misawa AB, Japan

Japan, Atsugi, NAF

Okinawa, Kadena AFB

T-PARC/TCS-08 Components

Guam, Andersen AFB

ET characteristics, forcing of downstream impacts, tropical/midlatitude interactions, extratropical cyclogenesis

Extratropical Transition (ET – recurvature), Downstream Impacts

Midlatitude operating regionNRL P-3, FALCON

TY Nabi, 29 Aug – 8 Sep, 2005

Large-scale circulation, deep convection, monsoon depressions, tropical waves, TC formation

Tropical Measurements

Tropical operating regionDriftsonde, NRL P-3, DOTSTAR, WC-130

Subtropical operating regionDriftsonde, NRL P-3, DOTSTAR, WC-130

TC track characteristics, tropical/midlatitude interaction

TC Intensification and structure changeRecurvature, initiation of ET

TY Sinlaku (TCS-033 / TD15W)

28 Missions• 8 Structure– P-3, C-130, DOTSTAR• 6 Targeting– Falcon• 14 ET– P-3, C-130, Falcon

Coverage• 09/0030 – 09/1045• 09/2100 – 10/1225• 10/2043 – 11/1828• 12/1138 – 12/2318• 13/2330 – 14/0555 • 15/2135 – 16/0205 • 16/0500 – 16/0800• 16/2044 –17/1115• 17/2224 – 18/0720 • 18/2235 – 19/0725• 20/0156 – 20/1206• 20/2205 – 21/0205

First simultaneous observations of TY-core, TY-environment and distant sensitive region (“Sinlaku”)

Joint mission of:• Falcon (yellow)• C-130 (black) • DOTSTAR (red)

JMA Typhoon EPS JMA Typhoon EPS

2008.09.09 06UTC ini +132h2008.09.09 06UTC ini +132h

JMA Medium-Range EPS JMA Medium-Range EPS

2008.09.08 012UTC ini +216h2008.09.08 012UTC ini +216h

EPS track forecasts

ECMWF EPS 2008.09.08 12UTC +120hECMWF EPS 2008.09.08 12UTC +120h GFS EPS GFS EPS

2008.09.09 12UTC ini +168h2008.09.09 12UTC ini +168h

Numerical Guidance Products

Sensitivity Guidance: Obs. Time 09/11 00ZECMWF NOGAPS JMA

UM ETKF UK ETKF COAMPS

Sinlaku by NCEP GFS 9/10 00UTC

AllObs

BTNoObs

500 hPa ASYMMETRIC STREAMF’N DIFF

500 hPa ASYMMETRIC WIND

DIFF+00 h +00 h

+18 h +18 h

Effect of drops:Strengthened vortex, decreased RMWStrengthened subtropical ridge, inducing northwestward flow

Courtesy of S. Aberson

DOTSTARAllObs

CenterAll w/Cycle

BTNoObs

CenterAllObs

NoObsDOTSTAR

All w/Cycle

(Courtesy of Dr. Martin Weissmann)

Sinlaku by ECMWF 9/10 00UTC

Rapid recurvature and moving

Better track forecast at the

beginning

Red : With Drop ( Test ) Blue : Without Drop ( Cntl )

Black : JMA Besttrack

850-1000 hPam/s

400-700 hPam/sTest - Cntl

Stronger wind (about +6m/s)

(m)

Difference in Z and Wind

SINLAKU by JMA 9/11 12UTC

AllObs BT

NoObs

Impacts of Sondes differ in models

Accepted/Rejected DS Data on 9/11 12UTC

• Not in Targeted Observation

• But maybe in the Systems

(Analysis, Model)– First Guess

– Assimilation of Data (accept/reject)

near the TC center

• Data Quality near the center

– DOTSTAR gives large impacts

• Better Quality around the TC

Why?

(Courtesy of Dr. Martin Weissmann)

TCRejected Data

Tropical Cyclone Intensity/Structure Changes, Extratropical Transition, and Downstream Impacts

TY Sinlaku recurves to move east-northeast under strong westerly shear

Despite the strong shear, Sinlaku re-intensified to typhoon strength as the ET process initiated.

C-130

Falcon

P-3

Aircraft missions for ET of Sinlaku on 5 consecutive days (3 days joint C-130, Falcon, P3 missions)

22 UTC 17 September – 08 UTC 18 September

ET Time

Among ensemble members, standard deviation increased downstream of the Transitioning typhoon. Also, considerable variability existed among forecast

sequences of downstream development as defined by local eddy kinetic energy budget calculations

Firsts• First four plane operation in a WPAC TC• First systematic targeting operation in the WPAC

– Comparison of several methods from a variety of operational and research organizations

– Multiple aircraft– ECMWF/UKMO Data Targeting System

• First systematic observations of full extratropical transition process– Multiple aircraft, land-based radar, MTSAT rapid-scan winds– Timed with satellite overpass

• First operation of WC-130Js at 31,000 ft altitude except when penetrating a mature TC– Dropped sondes and AXBTs from high altitude– Timed with passage of polar-orbiting satellites for satellite intensity

validation• First buoy drop in front of a WPAC TC

– Two TCs– First time a category 5 TC passed over buoys dropped in its path

Firsts• First operation of the Driftsonde in the Pacific

– Launch from Hawaii– Dropsonde data retrieved and sent to GTS for use in

operational numerical weather forecasting models• First use of the ELDORA radar in typhoons over

the western North Pacific flight operations in:– Cloud clusters– Developing tropical cyclones– Mature tropical cyclones– Tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition

• First Doppler wind and DIAL lidar observations for typhoon targeting and during extratropical transition

Summary

• Anomalous weather conditions to start– Non-existent monsoon trough– Anomalous low-level easterlies– Weak wave activity and strong upper-level cold lows

(TUTT) dominated throughout August– 1 typhoon– However, many aircraft missions conducted for TC

formation, wave structure, TUTT structure, subtropical cyclone development

• Active September– 3 typhoons (1 super typhoon, i.e. cat 5)– 2 recurvature tracks

• Successfully addressed all science objectives in field phase

Future• Data Management

– Distributed archive structure (http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/tparc_2008/ or http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp)

– Aircraft dropwindsonde, flight-level data, FALCON lidar (wind and DIAL) QC complete and data available on data catalog

– P-3 Lidar near complete; Driftsonde data being examined• Research Strategies

– Diagnostic Studies of tropical cyclone formation, intensity, structure changes, extratropical transition, and downstream impacts

– Validation of satellite-based estimates of tropical cyclone intensity and structure

– High-resolution modeling:• Assimilation of Doppler radar/lidar data• Tropical cloud cluster characteristics and TC formation hypotheses• Extratropical transition processes

– Predictability• Systematic evaluation of targeting techniques• Data impact studies• Analysis of ensemble prediction systems