TRENDS AND COMPOSITION OF MIGRATION FLOWS What role for policy?

Thomas LiebigInternational Migration Division, Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social AffairsOECD

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About one person in five has a migration background

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Immigrants (foreign-born) Native-born with at least one foreign-born parent%

Population share of immigrants and of native-born offspring of immigrants, around 2013Percentage of the total population

Source: OECD/EU 2015

How do we measure immigration?

National Immigration Statistics show for 2013:

• Germany: 1.108.00027.000 new immigration visa for labour

• Canada: 258.000of which 148.000 (57%) in the «economic class»

• US: 991.000

• France: 172.000

=> OECD-concept of “permanent-type migration” by category

Permanent immigration OECD countries by category

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Work Accomp. familyof workers

Family Humanitarian Other Freemovements

Mill

ion

s

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Free mobility is the component of migration flows that is most sensitive to economic conditions

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5

The destinations for migration have changedsignificantly with the crisis

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2012-2013 2003-11

Permanent inflows to OECD and EU countries, 2003-11 and 2012-13Annual averages in percentage of the total population

Source: OECD International Migration Database

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In many countries, immigration accounts for a large share of potential new labour marketentriesRatio of permanent inflows to OECD countries relative to the average size of a

single-year age cohort between the ages of 20 and 24, 2013 or most recent year

Source: OECD International Migration Database

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4

MEXJPN

KORCZEUSAPRTFIN

FRADEUGBR

ITABELNLDCANSWEAUTESPNZLIRL

DNKAUSNORCHE

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Composition of permanent migration, by category (2012/13)

* 2012 **incl. accompanying family of workers

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Free movement Work Family** Humanitarian/Other

Across European countries, there is a large dispersion in the composition of new migration

Source: OECD International Migration Database

Reason for migration is the most important determinant of outcomes for new arrivals, but there is some convergence over time

Employment rate by immigrant category and duration of stay in European OECD countries, 2008

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11-14 15-19

Duration of stay (years)

International protection Work or study Family

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• An important factor for policy: only labour migrants are directly selected – but category of migration is rarely considered in analyses of migrants’ outcomes.

• Non-EU migrants who came for work or study have higher qualification levels than family or humanitarian migrants, but still lower than the native-born.

• The returns to qualifications are higher for labour migrants (and for former international students) than for the other two groups but still tend to be lower than for the native-born.

Reason for migration: the single most important determinant of outcomes

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Migrants are often overrepresented at both ends of the educational spectrum

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

EstoniaPoland

CanadaSlovak Rep.

HungaryIsrael*

New ZealandCzech Republic

AustraliaUnited Kingdom

IrelandJapan

NorwayLuxembourg

ChileUnited States

FinlandSwitzerland

KoreaDenmarkSlovenia

OECD total (33)SwedenIcelandAustriaMexico

NetherlandsGermany

EU total (28)BelgiumTurkey

PortugalFranceGreece

SpainItaly

Native-born

Percentage of low-educated

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

ItalySloveniaGreeceAustria

GermanyTurkeySpain

Czech RepublicPortugal

NetherlandsEU total (28)

KoreaChile

Slovak Rep.FranceFinland

BelgiumIceland

HungaryJapan

SwedenDenmark

OECD total (33)Switzerland

MexicoUnited States

NorwayEstoniaPoland

New ZealandUnited Kingdom

AustraliaLuxembourg

IrelandIsrael*

Canada

Foreign-born

Percentage of highly educated

Source: OECD/EU 2015

• Highly-skilled inflows in relative terms are high in many countries– In 2010/11, more than half of recent immigrants were tertiary-

educated in Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom – 38% in the EU– less than 35% in the US

• In spite of low permanent labour migration flows, the US…– gets the “cream of the crop”, with more than 7000 visas/year for

outstanding researchers and extraordinary individuals – has 57% of world migrant inventors and 33% of all PhDs in OECD

countries (including 650,000 immigrants)– hosts 40% of all OECD immigrants with the highest literacy and

numeracy levels (PIAAC level 5)

The “Global Competition for Talent” … but with which countries?

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Approaches in the recruitment of highly-skilled foreign workers

Entry channels(model type)

Job search (supply driven)

Expression of interest

(mix)

Job offer(demand driven)

International students(mix)

Intra-company transfer(demand driven)

Selection Mechanisms

-Education

- Point Based System (PBS)

PBS

- Min. Education- Min. Wage

- Occupations- PBS

Job offer after graduation (usually

matching education)

Minimum seniority, skill level, wage

Limitation

(Cap)

Target numbers

- Labour Market Test- (Numerical Limits)

- Generally more favourable conditions (no LMT, lower salary

requirements)

Usually uncapped, but mostly only temporary

Countries

DEU, AUT, NLD, DNK

AUS, NZL, CAN

- Most European OECD countries; JAP, KOR, SWE (no

NL, no LMT)- USA , UK (NL + LMT)

All OECD countries (except Israel, the US and UK

impose limits)

All OECD countries

Wage thresholds, occupational categories, and language requirements are means to judge the skill level; the same goes for employer demand.

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• Increasing level of education in countries of origin but alsoincreasing diversity within tertiary educated category => going beyond formal education to select skills

• Increasing mobility => Retention (of international students and temporary high-skilled workers) and emigration (of nationals) are of high policy concern in some countries

• A country’s capacity to attract and retain high-skilled migrantsdepends on many other things than migration policy(economic conditions; wages; employer behaviour; R&D infrastructure; etc.)

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Conclusions

www.oecd.org/migration

Thomas.Liebig@oecd.org

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For further information on the OECD’s work on migration and integration: