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Transcript of This Presentation The Academy Award for Best Picture Looks for the best way to determine voters’...
![Page 1: This Presentation The Academy Award for Best Picture Looks for the best way to determine voters’ choice(s) among more than 2 options. Introduce.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070407/56649e3a5503460f94b2bcd1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
![Page 2: This Presentation The Academy Award for Best Picture Looks for the best way to determine voters’ choice(s) among more than 2 options. Introduce.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070407/56649e3a5503460f94b2bcd1/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
This Presentation
The Academy Award for Best Picture
Looks for the best way to determine voters’ choice(s) among more than 2 options. Introduce different voting methods and their drawbacks
The Hong Kong Legislative Council Election (Geographical Constituencies)
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The Academy Award
The famous line – “And the Oscar goes to…” The Academy Award – the biggest movie event of the year Since 1929 – the oldest award ceremony in the media Voted by members of The Academy of Motion Picture Arts
and Sciences Number of voters: 5532
(for the 83rd Annual Award)
Currently 24 categories Best Director Best Actor Best Original Score…
The biggest award: Best Picture.
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From 5 to 10
Best Picture nominees increased from 5 to 10 from 2010, for 2 reasons. First, rating; price for a 30s commercial of this year: 1.75 million US dollars.
(1.75 * 2 * 60) / 42 = 5 USD/h – Price for not letting an American to do anything for an hour
39,336 / 2,080 = 19 USD/h – Price for letting an American to do something for an hour
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From 5 to 10 (cont’d)
The second reason: The Dark Knight. Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Terhj8mjPwY 2:57 – 3:23
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Pick One From Ten
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Plurality, Majority
Plurality
The one that gets the largest number of votes wins
Majority
>50%
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Sequential Voting
Determine the winner through multiple times of voting
Pick the 3 strongest nominees to illustrate Simplify the number of voters to 100
(a) “The King’s Speech” – 40 – Group A Actor-voters like experienced actors in a good film
(b) “True Grit” – 35 – Group B A great film with experienced actors
(c) “The Social Network” – 25 – Group C Other voters like the greatest film
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Sincere Voting vs. Strategic Voting Group: X Y Z
First choice: a b c Second choice: b a b Third choice: c c a Percent: 40 35 25
One kind of Runoff: randomly pick 2 remaining nominees to vote each time Sincere Voting vs. Strategic Voting
Strategic Voting: Group A strategically votes (c) in the first round to eliminate (b).
Alternative: Elimination Runoff Vote for all remaining nominees; eliminate the nominee with fewest
number of votes; vote again until majority. But voters might change their decisions each time!
Sequential Voting (cont’d)
75 25
40 60
b c
ba a c
35 65
75 25
b c
ba a c
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Preferential Voting
Voters can vote for multiple nominees at the same time One kind of Preferential Voting: Score
Let’s add “Toy Story 3” (d) to the previous group Assuming voters are all closed-minded, and won’t let an animated film to win; so
still 3 groups
Group: X Y Z First choice: a b c Second choice: b a b Third choice: c c a Fourth choice: d d d Percent: 40 35 25 (a) “The King’s Speech”: (40)(3) + (35)(2) + (25)(1) = 215 (b) “True Grit”: (40)(2) + (35)(3) + (25)(2) = 235 - winner (c) “The Social Network”: (40)(1) + (35)(1) + (25)(3) = 150 (d) “Toy Story 3”: (40)(0) + (35)(0) + (25)(0) = 0
Strategic Voting, again Group A strategically switch (b) and (d), then (b): (40)(0) + (35)(3) + (25)
(2) = 155 - loser
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How They Do It - RankPreferential Voting (cont’d)
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How They Do It
Number of voters: 5532 Assume the distribution of voters’ first choices is:
1. Inception: 1000 2. The King’s Speech: 1000 3. Winter’s Bone : 900 4. 127 Hours: 800 5. The Kids’ Are All Right: 500 6. Black Swan: 400 7. The Fighter: 382 8. Toy Story 3: 250 9. True Grit: 200 10. The Social Network: 100
We eliminate “The Social Network” and redistribute the 100 votes to the remaining nine according to their preference of the 100 voters’ second choice.
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How They Do It (cont’d)
Assume 50 of them vote “Toy Story 3” as their second place and 50 vote “True Grit” as their second place.
Then it becomes: 1. Inception: 1000 2. The King’s Speech: 1000 3. Winter’s Bone: 900 4. 127 Hours: 800 5. The Kids’ Are All Right: 500 6. Black Swan: 400 7. The Fighter: 382 8. Toy Story 3: 300 9. True Grit: 250
50 TSN
TG WB
…
150
TG TKS
…
50 TG TSN
TS3
…
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How They Do It (cont’d)
After assigning 150 to TKS, 50 to WB, and 50 to TS3, we have:
1. The King’s Speech: 1150 2. Inception: 1000 3. Winter’s Bone: 950 4. 127 Hours: 800 5. The Kids’ Are All Right: 500 6. Black Swan: 400 7. The Fighter: 382 8. Toy Story 3: 350
Eliminate one by one until one nominee gets 2766 votes.
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Pick More Than One?
Seats: 6 % to get a
seat=100/6=16.667
First: Tanya Chan (26.4%) 26.4 -16.667 = 9.733%
Second: Regina Ip (19.5%) 19.5 -16.667 = 2.833%
Third: Jasper Tsang (19.3%) Fourth: Kam Nai-wai (12.7%) Fifth: Cyd Ho (9.9%) Sixth: Lo Wing-lok (6.5%) The New Sixth: Audrey Eu
(9.733%)
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Time For You
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Real Life Example
content
LG1 LG5 LG7Leo 1 3 2
Vivian 1 2 3
Prof. Li 3 1 2
Yung 3 2 1
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Homework
1. If the following are the choices of 20 voters, which film will win the Best Picture Oscar? Please show steps.
The numbers are voters, letters films. First choice -> Seventh choice
1 A B C D E F G
2 A B D C E F G
3 A C D B E F G
4 B A C D E F G
5 G B C D A E F
6 F A B C D G E
7 B A C D E F G
8 F B A D C E G
9 D B A E F G C
10 B A C D E F G
11 A B C D E F G
12 A B D C E F G
13 A C D B E F G
14 G B C D E F G
15 G B C D A E F
16 G A B C D G F
17 B A C D E F G
18 D B A F C E G
19 D B C E F G A
20 B A C D E F G
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Homework (cont’d)
2. Based on our 4 voters’ preference on the 3 canteens, please use at least method we introduced in the presentation to make each of the 3 canteens the winner. If you cannot find out a method, what you can add or change in order to get the desired result?
Extra: Can voters employ “Strategic Voting” in the current Best Picture Oscar voting method? Why or why not?
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Thank you.
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