Third Quarter 2015 Investor Presentation

34
www.thorindustries.com

Transcript of Third Quarter 2015 Investor Presentation

Page 1: Third Quarter 2015 Investor Presentation

www.thorindustries.com

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This presentation includes certain statements that are “forward looking” statements within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. These forward looking statements are made based on management’s current expectations and beliefs regarding future and anticipated developments and their effects upon Thor Industries, Inc., and inherently involve uncertainties and risks. These forward looking statements are not a guarantee of future performance. There can be no assurance that actual results will not differ from our expectations. Factors which could cause materially different results include, among others, raw material and commodity price fluctuations, material or chassis supply restrictions, legislative and regulatory developments, the costs of compliance with increased governmental regulation, legal issues, the potential impact of increased tax burdens on our dealers and retail consumers, lower consumer confidence and the level of discretionary consumer spending, interest rate fluctuations and the potential economic impact of rising interest rates, restrictive lending practices, management changes, the success of new product introductions, the pace of obtaining and producing at new production facilities, the pace of acquisitions, the potential loss of existing customers of acquisitions, the integration of new acquisitions, the impact of the divestiture of the Company’s bus business, the availability of delivery personnel, asset impairment charges, cost structure changes, competition, the potential impact of the strengthening of the U.S. dollar on international demand, general economic, market and political conditions and the other risks and uncertainties discussed more fully in ITEM 1A of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended July 31, 2014 and Part II, Item 1A of our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the period ended April 30, 2015. We disclaim any obligation or undertaking to disseminate any updates or revisions to any forward looking statements contained in this release or to reflect any change in our expectations after the date of this release or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any statement is based, except as required by law.

Forward Looking Statements

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Founded in 1980 by Wade Thompson & Peter Orthwein with the acquisition of Airstream, Inc.

The sole owner of operating subsidiaries that, combined, represent one of the world’s largest manufacturers of recreational vehicles

• #2 in overall RV 34.2% of market*

• #2 in Travel Trailers 33.2% of market*

• #1 in Fifth Wheels 46.7% of market*

• #1 in Motorhomes 26.1% of market**

Approximately 9,400 employees***

Operations through 120 facilities in 3 US states***

6.9 million square feet under roof***

Who is THOR

Source: *Statistical Surveys, Inc., YTD U.S. and Canada units through March 2015

**Motorhomes includes Class A, B and C, Statistical Surveys, Inc., YTD U.S. and Canada units through March 2015

*** as of July 31, 2014 (continuing operations)

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Travel Trailers

Fifth Wheels

Specialty Trailers

THOR’s RV Product Range

Towable RV's

$2,722 77%

Motorized RV's $804

23%

FY2014 Sales*

*Fiscal year ended July 31, 2014,

sales, continuing operations ($ in

millions)

Class A

Class B & C

Towable RV Segment Products

Motorized RV Segment Products

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THOR Operating Entities

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At Thor we strive to provide RV consumers with superior products and services through innovative solutions which enhance the enjoyment of the RV lifestyle

Our decentralized operating structure and independent operating subsidiaries foster an entrepreneurial spirit and an unending focus on the needs of the users of our products – resulting in our drive to lead the industry with innovation, product quality and customer service

Our focus requires that we make decisions based on the long-term success of our Company:

• While we strive to lead the industry in market share, we will not strive for market share at the expense of quality or without regard to bottom-line impact

• Growth is important, but this is a business of relationships, and we realize that the key to long-term sustainable sales growth rests in the strength of our relationships with consumers, dealers and suppliers

• Our relationship with shareholders is important ― profits are a key driver to our long-term success and returns to our shareholders

• The path to long run success is seldom straight, so our leaders manage in a way that moves us closer to our goals, even though it might impact our results in the short term

THOR’s Strategic Vision

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Disciplined, Profitable Growth

• Profitable every year since 1980 – 34 years without an annual loss, even during the recession of 2007-09

• All time record $3.5 billion sales from continuing operations in FY2014, up 9% from $3.2 billion sales in FY2013, which was up 23% from FY2012

• FY2014 net income from continuing operations of $175.5 million, up 16% from FY2013

• FY2014 diluted EPS from continuing operations of $3.29, up 15% from $2.86 in FY2013, FY2014 total diluted EPS of $3.35, up 16% from $2.88 in FY2013

Sustainable Business Model

• Successfully weathered a severe downturn and remained profitable

• Recent capital investments position Thor for growth and margin improvement over the long term

Solid Balance Sheet

• On April 30, 2015, cash and cash equivalents of $259.4 million

• Operations historically generate significant cash

• Strong history of returning cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases

− Regular quarterly dividend increased from $0.23 to $0.27 at the beginning of FY15

− Repurchased 1 million shares for $60 million in May 2015

Why Invest in THOR

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Proven business model:

• Entrepreneurial and decentralized

• No ivory tower: approximately 9,400 employees, only 42 in corporate staff*

• Decision-making driven by the needs of the customer

• Big, but nimble – highly responsive to changes in demand

• Best management team in the business, as proven by sustained performance

An innovator in each of its business segments

Long-term RV market leadership:

• Strong position in towable RVs, historically highest volume area

• #1 in Motorhomes, poised for continued growth as the market continues to recover

• Well positioned as a leading innovator in the RV market to meet the demands of dealers and consumers

Strong balance sheet to support growth and shareholder returns

What Makes THOR Different

* as of July 31, 2014 (continuing operations)

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No golden parachutes

No ‘pro forma’ earnings. We report net income, not adjusted earnings to cover up performance

Consistent focus on shareholder value

Simple compensation philosophy:

• Mainly cash compensation, without a cap, based on pre-tax income – a true pay for performance philosophy

• Restricted stock units also awarded based on performance to provide broader, long-term focus on overall Company results

Corporate Integrity

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Focus on assembly - not heavy manufacturing• Vertical integration – only where it makes sense• Flexibility – performance in any market condition• Low overhead costs• High return on assets employed

Strong market share in the primary RV categories – Travel Trailers, Fifth Wheels and Motorized

• Provides scale and purchasing power• Low cost, high volume producer – generates improved margin

Balance sheet supports acquisitions and organic growth

Meaningful increases in production capacity during FY14 and FY15

Diversified lineup of innovative product offerings

Strong relationships in wholesale financing providers

Strength to pay warranty and honor repurchase agreements, which is important to dealers, lenders and consumers

THOR’s Competitive Advantages

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Market is competitive and very entrepreneurial

• Top three RV competitors account for 81.8% of industry retail sales*

• Thor’s strength is a resource – since the recession, consumers, dealers and lenders seek to do business with the strongest players in the market

Industry better balanced today for supply and demand

Pricing and promotional environment remains competitive, but generally improved over prior year

Consumer confidence has softened after several months of gains. Final results fell to 90.7 in May 2015 from 95.9 in April, but rose from 81.9 a year ago. Consumer sentiment was affected by recent increases in gas prices as well as concerns over the employment situation**

Wholesale and Retail lenders are prudent - applying “healthy discipline”

RV buyers seek the “power of choice” – want variety in brands and models

RV Industry Conditions

*Source: Statistical Surveys, Inc., U.S. and Canada YTD March 2015

** Source: University of Michigan final Consumer Sentiment Index for May 2015

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A recent review of trends by Kampgrounds of America (KOA) revealed some interesting trends among RV consumers.

Approximately 46.2 million households in North America are active campers, but only 9.7 million, or 21% of them, are RV campers. The remaining campers primarily use tents or cabins, which makes them a solid target market for the RV industry (58% of RV owners started as tent campers).

Baby Boomers (a prime RV target market for many years) represent 24% of the population. While we are focused on meeting the need of Boomers, we are also looking to the future and developing products to meet the needs of Generation X and Millennials as they seek more active outdoor experiences with their families.

Specific trends impacting the future RV market:

• Increasingly diverse potential customer base – Hispanic, African American, Asian and other ethnicities accounted for 23% of campers in the 2014 survey compared with 12% in 2012.

• While older consumers continue to camp, younger campers have been growing – the 25-34 year old cohort increased from 18% of campers in the 2012 survey to 23% of campers in the 2014 survey, many of whom camp in tents.

• Younger consumers still want technology available even as they “unplug” when camping.

• RVs address several key needs of consumers, including spending more time with friends and family and enjoying the great outdoors in an affordable and environmentally conscious way.

• RV consumers continue to develop new ways of utilizing their RVs. Whether used for extreme sports, youth sports leagues and tournaments, attending dog shows or craft shows, RVs are versatile.

The RV Consumer

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RV Market Wholesale Trends: Units (000’s)2

95

.8 33

9.6

44

1.1

41

3.9

38

9.9

19

9.2

10

6.9 13

3.6

14

0.6

19

6.6

21

5.7

18

6.9

18

9.9

211

.7

21

5.8

18

7.9

17

3.1

16

3.1 2

03

.4

22

7.8 25

9.5

24

7.2

24

7.5

25

4.5 2

92

.7 32

1.2

30

0.1

25

6.8

311

.0

32

0.8

37

0.1

38

4.4

39

0.5

35

3.5

23

7.0

16

5.6

24

2.3

25

2.3 28

5.8 3

21

.2 35

6.7

38

0.0

39

4.5

197

4

197

5

197

6

197

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197

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197

9

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0

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e)

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e)

Historical Data: Recreation Vehicle Industry Association, Calendar year 2015 and 2016:

RVIA estimate as of Summer 2015

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RV Market Motorized Wholesale Trends: Units

(000’s)

68

.9

96

.6

15

6.1

16

0.2

15

7.2

64

.1

28

.5 35

.4 41

.2

69

.5

82

.0

68

.7

67

.7 73

.7

72

.8

61

.1

52

.3

41

.9 46

.9

51

.3 58

.2

52

.8

55

.3

55

.1 63

.5 71

.5

61

.0

49

.2 60

.4

62

.0 71

.7

61

.4

55

.8

55

.4

28

.4

13

.2 25

.2

24

.8

28

.2 38

.4 44

.0

47

.0

49

.1

197

4

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9

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Historical Data: Recreation Vehicle Industry Association, Calendar year 2015 and 2016:

RVIA estimate as of Summer 2015

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RV Market Towable Wholesale Trends: Units

(000’s)

22

6.9

24

3.0

28

5.0

25

3.7

23

2.7

13

5.1

78

.4 98

.1

99

.4

12

7.1

13

3.7

11

8.1

12

2.1

13

7.9

14

2.9

12

6.7

12

0.8

12

1.1 1

56

.5

17

6.5 20

1.3

19

4.3

19

2.2

19

9.5 2

29

.1 24

9.6

23

9.1

20

7.6

25

0.6

25

8.9

29

8.3 32

3.0

33

4.5

29

8.1

20

8.6

15

2.4

21

7.1

22

7.5 2

57

.6 28

2.8 3

12

.8

33

3.0

34

5.4

197

4

197

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197

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Historical Data: Recreation Vehicle Industry Association, Calendar year 2015 and 2016:

RVIA estimate as of Summer 2015

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Dealers

• Continued optimism

• Right-sized towable inventory

• Appropriate motorized inventory

• Access to wholesale credit

• Financial health

RV: State of Balance

RV 2015 2014 % change

Towables $484.2 $548.5 -11.7%

Motorized $242.6 $271.7 -10.7%

TOTAL $726.8 $820.2 -11.4%

Backlog: April 30 ($ millions)

Consumers

• Better access to retail credit

• Historically low interest rates

• Great demographic trends

• Renewed focus on family vacations

• Looking for value when considering vacation options

Decrease in backlogs due in part to increased capacity enabling the Company to better meet demand, as well as shift in

timing of dealer orders and delivery earlier in the fiscal year as a result of the Fall Dealer Open House in September.

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THOR RV Dealer Inventory

Total Dealer inventory remains appropriate for current conditions, in both the towable and motorized segments.

Dealer inventory at April 30, 2015, was up 23% compared with April 30, 2014, which supports current industry retail trends. Increase due in part to inventory of acquisitions which were not included in prior year as well as winter weather and driver shortage which delayed FY14 deliveries.

Lenders still comfortable with current dealer inventory turns and current credit line utilization, year-over-year turns have increased modestly, resulting in a slight reduction in average age of Thor units on dealers’ lots.

2015 2014 % change

RV 81,335 66,014 +23.2%

Dealer Inventory: April 30 (units)

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Retail demand has driven rebound in towables and motorized

Wholesale units typically outpace retail in the early part of the calendar year; historically sales become more balanced as we reach the peak retail selling season

The RV Market Ahead

* Statistical Surveys, inc., includes US and Canada. 2012, 2013 & 2014 Full Year Actual, YTD though March 2015

** RVIA wholesale shipments for full years 2012, 2013 & 2014, YTD through March 2015

Calendar Year

2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD

Industry Retail

Registrations*

262,805 units

(+6.8%)

301,399 units

(+14.7%)

326,168 units

(+8.2%)

63,132 units

(+12.8%)

Industry

Wholesale

Shipments**

285,749 units

(+13.2%)

321,127 units

(+12.4%)

356,735 units

(+11.1%)

97,074 units

(+7.9%)

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On May 1, 2015 Thor acquired Postle Aluminum, based in Elkhart, Indiana, for approximately $144 million in cash, subject to post-closing adjustments.

Postle generated sales of approximately $220 million in calendar 2014, and we expect the acquisition to be accretive to earnings. Approximately 30% of sales are to Thor subsidiaries and approximately 75% of sales were to the RV industry. The remaining sales are to the specialty truck and trailer, cargo, marine and fencing industries.

Postle produces a variety of aluminum extrusions, specialized components and powder coating and painting services.

The current management team will continue to lead the company as a separate Thor subsidiary.

Acquisition of Postle Aluminum

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On January 5, 2015, Thor announced that its Heartland RV subsidiary acquired towable RV maker Cruiser RV (CRV) and luxury fifth wheel maker DRV Luxury Suites, both based in Howe, Indiana, for $47.4 million in cash, subject to post-closing adjustments.

CRV produces light-weight laminated travel trailers targeting the fast-growing entry- to mid-priced segments of the market while DRV is a leader in high-end luxury fifth wheels, including some custom units that complement Heartland’s luxury fifth wheel brands. CRV and DRV generated approximately $135 million in combined sales for calendar 2014.

With locations about 30 miles from Heartland’s main complex, CRV and DRV offer opportunities for expanded production for Heartland while drawing from a talented labor pool in an adjacent county.

Acquisition of Cruiser RV and DRV Luxury Suites

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In mid-fiscal 2013, Thor’s management team developed a three-year Strategic Plan focused on growth and operational improvement. The rolling three-year plan has been updated to cover the FY15-FY17 periods.

Thor’s Strategic Goals:

RETURNS: Strive to be unceasingly attentive to margin maintenance and, when indicated, improvement, designed to offer our shareholders a long-term superior rate of return

INNOVATION: Focus on continually offering industry-leading product innovation, quality and customer service to our customers

MARKET LEADERSHIP: Remain a market share leader in the primary categories in which we compete

MOTIVATION: Dedicated to the continued success of our decentralized business model which promotes and rewards entrepreneurship within our operating subsidiaries

COMMUNITY LEADER: Strive to build on our positive reputation in the marketplace and communities where we work, provide competitive benefits and advancement opportunities to employees, foster respect and frequent engagement with employees, dealers and business partners

Three-Year Strategic Plan Update

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Key Milestones to achieving the plan:

Mid-single-digit top line growth through FY17 driven by organic growth, strategic expansion of production and capacity, as well as opportunistic acquisitions.

Dedication to maintaining strong relationships with our dealers to sharpen our focus on providing the best product to the customer.

Enhance our understanding of our end consumers and their needs with greater interaction through social media and direct communication channels.

Expansion of a continuous improvement process designed to positively affect product quality and operating efficiency.

We have achieved the first 100 basis points of the original 200 basis point gross margin improvement target set in the original plan. The remaining gross margin improvement goal will likely be more challenging as we pursue this over the remaining plan horizon.

Three-Year Strategic Plan Update

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Solid sales growth in both motorized and towable sales resulting in a 12% improvement in sales from continuing operations, to $1.17

billion in the third quarter.

Net income from continuing operations for the third quarter was $63.6 million, up 15% from $55.1 million in the prior-year third

quarter.

Diluted earnings per share (EPS) from continuing operations for the third quarter was $1.19, up 16% from $1.03 in the third quarter

last year.

Including discontinued operations from Thor’s former Bus business, net income was $62.8 million, up 14% from $55.1 million in the

third quarter of fiscal 2014. Diluted EPS including discontinued operations was $1.17, up from $1.03 in the third quarter last year.

Towable RV revenue in the quarter was $919.4 million, up 15% from last year driven by market acceptance of new towable products

as well as incremental sales from acquisitions. Third-quarter towable income before tax was $83.8 million, up 15% from $72.6

million last year. Towable RV income before tax for the third quarter was 9.1% of revenues unchanged from a year ago.

Motorized sales increased 4% to $254.9 million for the third quarter of 2015. Income before tax was $19.9 million, up 12% from

$17.7 million last year. As a percent of revenues, motorized RV income before tax increased to 7.8% of revenues from 7.2% a year

ago.

Total backlog decreased 11% to $726.8 million. Towable backlog decreased 12% to $484.2 million while motorized backlog

decreased 11% to $242.6 million. Decrease in backlogs reflects the impact of new production capacity on the Company’s ability to

meet increasing demand more timely, as well as the continuing shift in the timing of dealer orders and deliveries earlier in the fiscal

year due to the increasing importance of the Dealer Open House held in September.

Comments on 3rd Quarter 2015 Results

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Profitable every year since our founding in 1980 – 34 years of profitability

Successfully weathered a severe downturn in 2007-09 while remaining profitable

Recent capital investments position Thor for growth and margin improvement over the long term

#2 overall RV market share in North America*

Rock-solid balance sheet. Significant cash on hand and historic cash generation –history of returning cash to shareholders

Diversified and innovative products

Strong consumer, dealer and lender relationships

Experienced team

THOR - Key Takeaways

* Statistical Surveys, Inc., YTD U.S. and Canada units YTD March 2015

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Appendix: Financial & Market Data

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THOR’s RV Competitive Advantage

Source: Statistical Surveys, Inc., U.S. and Canada

* Thor adjusted to include historical results of Livin’ Lite, Bison Coach, K-Z, Inc., Cruiser RV and DRV Luxury Suites for all

periods presented ** Forest River includes Palomino, Coachmen, Prime Time, Shasta and Dynamax *** Jayco adjusted to

include historical results of Open Range **** Allied Recreation includes Fleetwood and Monaco

U.S. and Canada Retail Registrations (units)

Total Share % Total Share % Total Share % Total Share %

THOR* 21,570 34.2% 118,380 36.3% 115,539 38.3% 102,780 39.1%

Forest River** 22,338 35.4% 111,765 34.3% 99,822 33.1% 81,873 31.2%

Jayco*** 7,715 12.2% 41,341 12.7% 37,942 12.6% 33,803 12.9%

Winnebago 2,108 3.3% 10,339 3.2% 8,661 2.9% 7,053 2.7%

Allied Recreation**** 688 1.1% 4,859 1.5% 6,034 2.0% 5,839 2.2%

Grand Design 1,264 2.0% 4,147 1.3% 893 0.3% - 0.0%

Subtotal 55,683 88.2% 290,831 89.2% 268,891 89.2% 231,348 88.0%

All Others 7,449 11.8% 35,337 10.8% 32,508 10.8% 31,457 12.0%

Grand Total 63,132 100.0% 326,168 100.0% 301,399 100.0% 262,805 100.0%

Y/E 12/31/14 Y/E 12/31/13 Y/E 12/31/12YTD 3/31/15

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Sales, Continuing Operations ($ millions)Fiscal years ended July 31, Year-to-Date through April 30

$1,115

$1,849

$2,340

$2,640

$3,242

$3,525

$2,482

$2,949

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 YTD 2015 YTD

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Net Income, Continuing Operations ($ millions)Fiscal years ended July 31, Year-to-Date through April 30

$2.5

$91.2 $91.6

$111.4

$151.7

$179.0

$108.7

$133.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 YTD 2015 YTD

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Diluted EPS, Continuing OperationsFiscal years ended July 31, Year-to-Date through April 30

$0.04

$1.72 $1.66

$2.07

$2.86

$3.29

$2.04

$2.49

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 YTD 2015 YTD

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Regular Quarterly Dividends Fiscal years ended July 31

$0.07

$0.10

$0.15

$0.18

$0.23

$0.27

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

In addition to regular quarterly dividends, Thor paid special dividends of $0.50 per share in FY11, $1.50 in FY13 and $1.00 in

FY14. The declaration of future dividends and the establishment of the per share amounts, record dates and payment dates

for any such future dividends are subject to the determination of the Board, and will be dependent upon future earnings, cash

flows and other factors.

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3rd Quarter Financial Summary

2015 2014 % Change

Net Sales $1,174.3 $1,046.8 12.2%

Gross Profit 166.6 142.1 17.3%

% of Sales 14.2% 13.6%

SG&A 68.9 57.0 21.0%

% of Sales 5.9% 5.4%

All Other 3.1 2.4

Income Before Tax 94.6 82.7 14.3%

% of Sales 8.1% 7.9%

Income Taxes 31.0 27.6

Net Income (cont. ops.) 63.6 55.1 15.3%

Diluted EPS (cont. ops.) $1.19 $1.03 15.5%

Order Backlog

Towables 484.2 548.5 -11.7%

Motorized 242.6 271.7 -10.7%

Total 726.8 820.2 -11.4%

*Amounts in millions except per share data

Net Sales by segment:

• Towables +15%, motorized +4%

Income before tax by segment:

• Towables 9.1%, unchanged from

3Q14

• Gross margins improved from

better fixed cost absorption,

offsetting an increase in SG&A

• Motorized 7.8%, up from 7.2%

• Improved labor and warranty

costs, partly offset by mix toward

lower cost products

• EPS from continuing operations of

$1.19, up from $1.03 in third quarter

of 2014

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0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1Q2006 1Q2007 1Q2008 1Q2009 1Q2010 1Q2011 1Q2012 1Q2013 1Q2014 1Q2015

Quarterly Thor RV Unit Shipments

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Thor RV Retail Market Share: Units

*Source: Statistical Surveys Inc., U.S. and Canada, calendar year 2010-14, 2015 YTD through March. Historical results

adjusted to include results of Heartland, Livin’ Lite, Bison Coach, K-Z, Inc., Cruiser RV and DRV Luxury Suites for all periods

presented

41.2% 40.9% 41.2%40.2%

38.0%

35.5%

17.8%19.5% 20.0%

23.3% 23.8%

26.2%

12.4%14.4%

16.7%

22.1% 21.9%23.9%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD

Towable Retail Share* Class A/C Retail Share* Class B Retail Share*

Page 34: Third Quarter 2015 Investor Presentation

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