Third Quarter 2012 Earnings Release - Union Pacific · Third Quarter 2012 Earnings Release October...

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1 1 Third Quarter 2012 Earnings Release October 18, 2012 Jack Koraleski, CEO 2 2 2010 2011 2012 $1.56 $1.85 $2.19 All-Time Quarterly Record Third Quarter 2012 Results +18% Earnings Per Share Third Quarter Positives All-Time Quarterly Records Operating Revenue Operating Income Operating Ratio Earnings Customer Satisfaction Safety Franchise Diversity Challenges Coal Volumes

Transcript of Third Quarter 2012 Earnings Release - Union Pacific · Third Quarter 2012 Earnings Release October...

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Third Quarter 2012 Earnings Release October 18, 2012 Jack Koraleski, CEO

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2010 2011 2012

$1.56

$1.85

$2.19 All-Time Quarterly Record

Third Quarter 2012 Results

+18%

Earnings Per Share Third Quarter Positives

• All-Time Quarterly Records – Operating Revenue – Operating Income – Operating Ratio – Earnings – Customer Satisfaction

• Safety • Franchise Diversity

Challenges • Coal Volumes

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Third Quarter 2012 Marketing & Sales Review October 18, 2012 Eric Butler, Executive VP – Marketing & Sales

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1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q

87 89

90 90 91

92 91

92 93 93 94

164 169

178 175

172 174

180 180

172 175

181

Customer Satisfaction

GOOD

2011 2010

Customer Satisfaction 7 Day Carloadings

92 = Full Year Record

All-Time Quarterly Record

2012

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Chemicals

Automotive

Coal

Third Quarter Recap

Volume ARC Freight Revenue

Freight Revenue Performance (Year-Over-Year Change)

Volume Growth

Flat

+4% +4%

Revenue Mix

Agricultural 16% Autos

9% Chemicals

17%

Coal 21%

Industrial 17%

Intermodal 20% s

ve

Agricultural

TOTAL

-2%

+13%

-2%

-12%

+1%

Flat

+18%

Industrial Products

Intermodal

Sub Total (excl Coal) +3%

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Agricultural Products Revenue $783M (-4%) Volume 218K (-2%) ARC $3,596 (-2%)

Quarterly Drivers • Weakness in Grain • Reduced Ethanol Production &

Local Feeding of DDGS • Growth in Food & Refrigerated

Grain Products

34%

Grain 39%

Food/ Refrigerated

27%

Volume Mix

*Volume in thousands of carloads

78.6 73.2

Grain Products*

2011 2012

-7%

75.4 69.9

Grain*

2011 2012

-7%

54.1 58.7

Food & Refrigerated* +9%

2011 2012

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Automotive Revenue $436M (+15%) Volume 181K (+13%) ARC $2,407 (+2%)

Finished Vehicles

58%

Volume Mix

92.2 104.5

Finished Vehicles*

2011 2012

+13%

68.1 76.5

Auto Parts*

2011 2012

+12%

*Volume in thousands of carloads

Quarterly Drivers • Pent-up Demand to Replace

Aging Vehicles • Improved Consumer Credit

Auto Parts 42%

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Chemicals Revenue $841M (+17%) Volume 275K (+18%) ARC $3,064 (-1%)

Quarterly Drivers • Continued Growth in Crude Oil • Strength in Plastics

Plastics 22%

Industrial Chemicals

22%

Petroleum & LP Gas

28%

Volume Mix

*Volume in thousands of carloads

Fertilizer 10%

Soda Ash 9%

Other 9%

31.8

62.1

Petroleum Products*

2011 2012

+95%

55.9 60.1

Plastics*

2011 2012

+8%

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Coal Revenue $1,058M (-5%) Volume 501K (-12%) ARC $2,111 (+9%)

Quarterly Drivers • Low Natural Gas Prices and

High Coal Stockpiles • Global Demand for Western

Coal

Southern Powder River Basin

74%

Other 13%

51.5 44.7

Southern Powder River Basin*

2011 2012

*Tons in millions

8.2 8.4

Colorado/Utah*

2011 2012

-13%

27,000

31,000

35,000

39,000

43,000

47,000

Volume Impact (Weekly Carloadings)

1Q 4Q

2011 2012

2Q 3Q

+2%

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Industrial Products Revenue $879M (+2%) Volume 299K (-2%) ARC $2,933 (+4%)

Quarterly Drivers • Energy Drilling Demand • Increased Construction Activity • Housing Start Growth • Steel & Scrap, Export Ore, and

Hazardous Waste Decline

Paper 10%

Gov’t/Waste 11%

Metals 19%

Volume Mix

Minerals/ Consumer

20%

Construction 31%

Lumber 9%

*Volume in thousands of carloads

63.5 67.3

Rock*

2011 2012

+6%

45.9 51.0

Non-Metallic Minerals*

2011 2012

+11%

50.2 44.9

Steel & Scrap* -11%

2011 2012

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Intermodal Revenue $1,022M (+8%) Volume 857K (+1%) ARC $1,192 (+7%)

Quarterly Drivers • Slow Economic Recovery

Continues • Highway Conversions

International 55%

Domestic 45%

Volume Mix 465.2 469.9

International*

2011 2012

+1%

382.3 387.3

Domestic*

2011 2012

+1%

*Volume in thousands of units

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Fourth Quarter 2012 Outlook Agricultural Products + Soybean exports, refrigerated & beer – Corn, ethanol & DDGS Autos + Pent up demand and new models Chemicals + Crude oil growth + Most other markets remain solid Coal + Export demand – Natural gas price and high stockpiles Industrial Products + Shale-related growth – Soft global steel market Intermodal + Domestic growth continues, muted

International peak

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Third Quarter 2012 Operations Review October 18, 2012

Lance Fritz, Executive VP - Operations

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2010 2011 2012

3.15 3.38 3.35

Operating Foundation, Safety Focus Third Quarter YTD

Rail Equipment (Reportable Rail Equipment

Incidents Per Million Train Miles)

Public (Crossing Accidents Per

Million Train Miles)

2010 2011 2012

2.18 2.04

2.34 Good Good

2010 2011 2012

1.36

1.15 1.04

Employee (Reportable Personal Injury

Incidents Per 200,000 Man-Hours)

Good +15%

All-Time Record

All-Time Record

-10%

-1%

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

86 93 90 87 89

86 89

94 94 95

Network Performance Third Quarter

• Agility and Resiliency Demonstrated with Resources and Service Plan

• Volume Growth in Southern Region

• Increased Capital Projects Adding Capacity

• Positioned for Growth

Service Delivery* and IS&P Industry Spot & Pull %

Good

* Includes early deliveries

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

23.7

27.4 25.7 24.6

26.1

Velocity (as Reported to the AAR)

+6%

** Ties All-Time Quarterly Record

Third Quarter Record

**

Good

All-Time Quarterly Record

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158 158 170 172 176

158 158170 172 176

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

83 85 86 88 87

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1,880 1,371

990 958 623

Network Productivity Third Quarter

Slow Order Miles Good

3rd Qtr Record

-35%

Intermodal Boxes

Manifest Cars

*

3rd Qtr Record

Train Size (Average Units per Train)

* All-time quarterly record

Nbr of Cars Switched

Y&L Employee Days

Cars Switched (per employee day)

+3%

+0%

+2%

Manifest Growth Impact (3Q 2012 vs. 3Q 2011)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

9.23

8.40 8.58 9.07

8.52

Car Utilization (Days)

Good

-6%

All-Time Quarterly Record

Good

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5% 6%

Flat Flat

Agility and Resource Readiness Volume Growth

3Q12 vs. 3Q11 YTD12 vs. YTD11 South Total South Total

• Volumes in South Back to Pre-Recession Levels

• Resource Realignment & Network Routing

• Improving Network Fluidity & Performance

1%

-2%

-2%

10% South

North

West

TE&Y Active Workforce (YTD 2012 vs. YTD 2011)

Total

Active Locomotive Fleet (YTD 2012 vs. YTD 2011)

-1%

-1%

-8%

9% South

North

West

Total

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2012 Operating Outlook

• Improved Safety Results

• Leverage Growth Opportunities in the South

• Remain Agile – Match Resources with Volume

• Continue Service and Productivity Gains

• Capital Effectiveness

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Third Quarter 2012 Financial Review October 18, 2012

Rob Knight, CFO

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Third Quarter Earnings Summary In Millions (except EPS)

Operating Revenues $5,343 $5,101 5 Operating Expenses 3,557 3,523 1 Operating Income 1,786 1,578 13 Other Income 28 17 65 Interest Expense (137) (142) (4) Income Taxes (635) (549) 16 Net Income $1,042 $904 15 Weighted Average Diluted Shares 475.2 488.1 (3)

Diluted EPS $2.19 $1.85 18

2012 2011 %

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Freight Revenue Third Quarter (In Millions)

2011

Volume & Mix

Core Price

Fuel Surcharge

(Lag Impact)

2012

-1%

+5% $5,019

$4,836

+4%

-1% +1%

Fuel Surcharge (Improved Coverage)

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Compensation & Benefits Expense Third Quarter 2012 $1,188M, Flat

$1,193 $1,188

2011

Compensation & Benefits (in Millions)

2012

Flat

45,507 46,205

2011

Workforce Levels (Quarterly Average)

2012

+1.5%

• Lower GTMs and Training Costs

• Solid Operations & Productivity Gains

• 2011 Drought-Related Costs • Labor Inflation Costs

• Increased Workforce Driven by Capital and PTC

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Fuel Expense Third Quarter 2012 $880M, -4%

250,855 245,415

2011

Gross-Ton-Miles (in Millions)

2012

-2%

• Reduced Costs driven by Lower Volumes

• Coal Declines driving GTMs down 2%

$3.18

Average Fuel Price (Per Gallon Consumed)

2011 2012

Flat

Jul Aug Sep

$3.19

Jun May Jul Aug Sep Jun May

• Diesel Fuel Prices Flat Compared to 2011

• Rising Fuel Prices Created Negative Lag on Fuel Surcharge Recovery

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$506 $542

Third Quarter 2012 Expense Review In Millions

2011

Purchased Services & Materials

2012

• Higher Subsidiary Contract Expenses

• Increased Locomotive and Freight Car Repair Costs

+7%

$408 $447 • Higher Depreciable Asset

Base from Growing Capital Spend

2011

Depreciation

2012

+10%

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Third Quarter 2012 Expense Review (cont) In Millions

• Higher Short-Term Freight Car Rental Expense

• Lower Locomotive and Freight Car Lease Expenses

$293 $300

2011

Equipment & Other Rents

2012

+2%

• Lower Equipment & Freight Damage Expenses

• Lower Volume-Related Costs & Cost Control Measures

• Higher Property Tax Expense

$207 $200

2011

Other

2012

-3%

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Operating Ratio Performance

2010 2011 2012

68.2 69.1

66.6

Third Quarter (Percent)

• All-Time Quarterly Best

• Solid Pricing

• Continued Focus on Productivity Initiatives

• Rising Fuel Prices & Negative Lag Impact on Surcharge Recovery

Operating Ratio Impact (0.5) pts EPS Impact of ($0.05)

-2.5 pts.

All-Time Quarterly Record

Fuel Price / Recovery Lag Impact

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Cash from Ops

Investing Dividends

$4,334

($2,241)

($607)

$4,366

($2,866)

($860)

Strong Financial Position Nine Month Period Ending September 30 ($ In Millions)

• Solid Free Cash Flow Larger Capital Spend 42% Cash Dividend Increase

• Strong Cash from Ops Higher Cash Tax Payments from Prior Bonus Depreciation Programs

• Strong Balance Sheet Investment Grade Credit Rating

Free Cash Flow*

Total Debt* (Adjusted)

40.7% 40.2%

* See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP. Adjusted Debt to Capital

12/31/2011 9/30/2012

$12,753 $13,130

2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011

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Driving Strong Shareholder Value

• Repurchase Activity 3.1 Million Shares in 3Q 10.8 Million Shares YTD

• Cash Returned to Shareholders in Dividends and Share Repurchases up 27%

• 17.1 Million Shares Remaining in Current Authorization

Dividends & Share Repurchases ($ In Billions)

Quarterly Share Repurchases ($ In Millions)

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

$248

$360

$428 $381

$433 $415 $378

2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2011

2011 YTD 2012 YTD

$1.6 $2.1

Dividends Share Buybacks +27%

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2012 Outlook

Fourth Quarter • Uncertain Economic

Environment • Volumes likely Flat to

Modestly Negative • Sub-70 Operating Ratio

Full Year • Sub-70 Operating Ratio

& Record Earnings • Longer-Term Prospects • Growing Shareholder

Returns

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Third Quarter 2012 Earnings Release October 18, 2012 Jack Koraleski, CEO

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Union Pacific’s Prospects Going Forward

• Economic Uncertainties

• Remain Agile in Changing Environment

• Positive on Longer-Term Opportunities

• Strategic Investments

• Increase Customer Value

• Generate Strong Shareholder Returns

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Cautionary Information This press release and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not

statements of historical fact, including specifically the statements regarding the Corporation’s expectations with respect to economic conditions; its ability to adapt to changing market conditions and continue providing quality customer service; and its ability to generate returns for its shareholders. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts.

Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2011, which was filed with the SEC on February 3, 2012. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC).

Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.

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Third Quarter 2012 Earnings Release October 18, 2012 Question & Answer Session