Thinkingdifferentlytolimitglobalwarmingto1.5oC

CharlieWilsonUCCClimateLab,Cork,May2017

Starting Grant #678799

1.  challengesfor1.5oCscenariosandmodelling

2.  granulartechnologies(andpoten@alcontribu@onto1.5oC)

3.  disrup@velowcarboninnova@ons(andpoten@alcontribu@onto1.5oC)

Atalkofthreeparts…andmorethanthreeprops

1.   challengesfor1.5oCscenariosandmodelling

2.  granulartechnologies(andpoten@alcontribu@onto1.5oC)

3.  disrup@velowcarboninnova@ons(andpoten@alcontribu@onto1.5oC)

Atalkofthreeparts…andmorethanthreeprops

GE.15-21930(E) *1521930*

Conference of the Parties Twenty-first session Paris, 30 November to 11 December 2015

Agenda item 4(b) Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (decision 1/CP.17) Adoption of a protocol, another legal instrument, or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties

ADOPTION OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT

Proposal by the President

Draft decision -/CP.21

The Conference of the Parties,

Recalling decision 1/CP.17 on the establishment of the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action,

Also recalling Articles 2, 3 and 4 of the Convention,

Further recalling relevant decisions of the Conference of the Parties, including decisions 1/CP.16, 2/CP.18, 1/CP.19 and 1/CP.20,

Welcoming the adoption of United Nations General Assembly resolution A/RES/70/1, “Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development”, in particular its goal 13, and the adoption of the Addis Ababa Action Agenda of the third International Conference on Financing for Development and the adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction,

Recognizing that climate change represents an urgent and potentially irreversible threat to human societies and the planet and thus requires the widest possible cooperation by all countries, and their participation in an effective and appropriate international response, with a view to accelerating the reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions,

Also recognizing that deep reductions in global emissions will be required in order to achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention and emphasizing the need for urgency in addressing climate change,

Acknowledging that climate change is a common concern of humankind, Parties should, when taking action to address climate change, respect, promote and consider their respective obligations on human rights, the right to health, the rights of indigenous peoples,

United Nations FCCC/CP/2015/L.9

Distr.: Limited 12 December 2015 Original: English FCCC/CP/2015/L.9

21

Article 1 For the purpose of this Agreement, the definitions contained in Article 1 of the Convention shall apply. In addition:

1. “Convention” means the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, adopted in New York on 9 May 1992.

2. “Conference of the Parties” means the Conference of the Parties to the Convention. 3. “Party” means a Party to this Agreement.

Article 2 1. This Agreement, in enhancing the implementation of the Convention, including its objective, aims to strengthen

the global response to the threat of climate change, in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty, including by: (a) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and

to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change;

(b) Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten food production;

(c) Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development.

2. This Agreement will be implemented to reflect equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances.

Article 3

As nationally determined contributions to the global response to climate change, all Parties are to undertake and communicate ambitious efforts as defined in Articles 4, 7, 9, 10, 11 and 13 with the view to achieving the purpose of this Agreement as set out in Article 2. The efforts of all Parties will represent a progression over time, while recognizing the need to support developing country Parties for the effective implementation of this Agreement.

Article 4 1. In order to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2, Parties aim to reach global peaking of

greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that peaking will take longer for developing country Parties, and to undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with best available science, so as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century, on the basis of equity, and in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty.

2. Each Party shall prepare, communicate and maintain successive nationally determined contributions that it intends to achieve. Parties shall pursue domestic mitigation measures with the aim of achieving the objectives of such contributions.

3. Each Party’s successive nationally determined contribution will represent a progression beyond the Party’s then current nationally determined contribution and reflect its highest possible ambition, reflecting its common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances.

4. Developed country Parties shall continue taking the lead by undertaking economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets. Developing country Parties should continue enhancing their mitigation efforts, and are encouraged to move over time towards economy-wide emission reduction or limitation targets in the light of different national circumstances.

5. Support shall be provided to developing country Parties for the implementation of this Article, in accordance with Articles 9, 10 and 11, recognizing that enhanced support for developing country Parties will allow for higher ambition in their actions.

TheParisAgreementformalisedaglobaltargetoflimi6ngwarmingto2oC

GE.15-21930(E) *1521930*

Conference of the Parties Twenty-first session Paris, 30 November to 11 December 2015

Agenda item 4(b) Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (decision 1/CP.17) Adoption of a protocol, another legal instrument, or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties

ADOPTION OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT

Proposal by the President

Draft decision -/CP.21

The Conference of the Parties,

Recalling decision 1/CP.17 on the establishment of the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action,

Also recalling Articles 2, 3 and 4 of the Convention,

Further recalling relevant decisions of the Conference of the Parties, including decisions 1/CP.16, 2/CP.18, 1/CP.19 and 1/CP.20,

Welcoming the adoption of United Nations General Assembly resolution A/RES/70/1, “Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development”, in particular its goal 13, and the adoption of the Addis Ababa Action Agenda of the third International Conference on Financing for Development and the adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction,

Recognizing that climate change represents an urgent and potentially irreversible threat to human societies and the planet and thus requires the widest possible cooperation by all countries, and their participation in an effective and appropriate international response, with a view to accelerating the reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions,

Also recognizing that deep reductions in global emissions will be required in order to achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention and emphasizing the need for urgency in addressing climate change,

Acknowledging that climate change is a common concern of humankind, Parties should, when taking action to address climate change, respect, promote and consider their respective obligations on human rights, the right to health, the rights of indigenous peoples,

United Nations FCCC/CP/2015/L.9

Distr.: Limited 12 December 2015 Original: English

TheParisAgreementformalisedaglobaltargetoflimi6ngwarmingto2oC

Limi$ngwarmingin2100:Cumula6veglobalCO2emissionbudget2011-2100

median[interquar@lerange]

1140GtCO2[1110-1150]

790GtCO2[470-1085]

2oC(50-66%) 2oC

(>66%) scenarios(long-term,global):-storylinesofpossiblefutures-interpretedquan@ta@vely-usingglobalmodelsofenergy-landuse-economicsystems

how?

24/03/2014 15:23Energy-Economy Models

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Name:

Energy-Economy ModelsComplete the crossword below

1A

2R I

E3I

4M

5A R K A L

6T

7G C A M M I I

8I M A C L I M M

N G E9M E R G E

D E N E S10P D S

O U S11W O R L D S C A N

I E E G

T S E

C

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resourcecosts

&availability

demandfor

ene

rgyservices

storylineinputs

Modelrepresenta@onofenergy-economy(+landuse)resources&technologies<->resourceflows<->prices

technologies&resourcesneeded

costs emissions

Modelsshowleastcostpathwaysforenergy&landusesystemstomeetdemandforenergyservices

www.iea-etsap.org/web/Times.asp-fromRemmeetal.(2001).

taxonC

2oCscenarios

2oCscenariosarecharacterisedin116pathwaysby15global‘systems’models…

scenarioinsightsfor2oCsystemtransforma6on-rapiddecarbonisa@on-pervasiveelectrifica@on-majorshi]sininvestment-coststodelayingac@on-sustainedcon@nua@onofhistoricalefficiencyimprovements

Clarkeetal.2014.IPCCAR5WG3.Chapter6.AssessingTransforma@onPathways.

GE.15-21930(E) *1521930*

Conference of the Parties Twenty-first session Paris, 30 November to 11 December 2015

Agenda item 4(b) Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (decision 1/CP.17) Adoption of a protocol, another legal instrument, or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties

ADOPTION OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT

Proposal by the President

Draft decision -/CP.21

The Conference of the Parties,

Recalling decision 1/CP.17 on the establishment of the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action,

Also recalling Articles 2, 3 and 4 of the Convention,

Further recalling relevant decisions of the Conference of the Parties, including decisions 1/CP.16, 2/CP.18, 1/CP.19 and 1/CP.20,

Welcoming the adoption of United Nations General Assembly resolution A/RES/70/1, “Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development”, in particular its goal 13, and the adoption of the Addis Ababa Action Agenda of the third International Conference on Financing for Development and the adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction,

Recognizing that climate change represents an urgent and potentially irreversible threat to human societies and the planet and thus requires the widest possible cooperation by all countries, and their participation in an effective and appropriate international response, with a view to accelerating the reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions,

Also recognizing that deep reductions in global emissions will be required in order to achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention and emphasizing the need for urgency in addressing climate change,

Acknowledging that climate change is a common concern of humankind, Parties should, when taking action to address climate change, respect, promote and consider their respective obligations on human rights, the right to health, the rights of indigenous peoples,

United Nations FCCC/CP/2015/L.9

Distr.: Limited 12 December 2015 Original: English FCCC/CP/2015/L.9

21

Article 1 For the purpose of this Agreement, the definitions contained in Article 1 of the Convention shall apply. In addition:

1. “Convention” means the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, adopted in New York on 9 May 1992.

2. “Conference of the Parties” means the Conference of the Parties to the Convention. 3. “Party” means a Party to this Agreement.

Article 2 1. This Agreement, in enhancing the implementation of the Convention, including its objective, aims to strengthen

the global response to the threat of climate change, in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty, including by: (a) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and

to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change;

(b) Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten food production;

(c) Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development.

2. This Agreement will be implemented to reflect equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances.

Article 3

As nationally determined contributions to the global response to climate change, all Parties are to undertake and communicate ambitious efforts as defined in Articles 4, 7, 9, 10, 11 and 13 with the view to achieving the purpose of this Agreement as set out in Article 2. The efforts of all Parties will represent a progression over time, while recognizing the need to support developing country Parties for the effective implementation of this Agreement.

Article 4 1. In order to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2, Parties aim to reach global peaking of

greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that peaking will take longer for developing country Parties, and to undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with best available science, so as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century, on the basis of equity, and in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty.

2. Each Party shall prepare, communicate and maintain successive nationally determined contributions that it intends to achieve. Parties shall pursue domestic mitigation measures with the aim of achieving the objectives of such contributions.

3. Each Party’s successive nationally determined contribution will represent a progression beyond the Party’s then current nationally determined contribution and reflect its highest possible ambition, reflecting its common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances.

4. Developed country Parties shall continue taking the lead by undertaking economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets. Developing country Parties should continue enhancing their mitigation efforts, and are encouraged to move over time towards economy-wide emission reduction or limitation targets in the light of different national circumstances.

5. Support shall be provided to developing country Parties for the implementation of this Article, in accordance with Articles 9, 10 and 11, recognizing that enhanced support for developing country Parties will allow for higher ambition in their actions.

TheParisAgreementalsoenshrinedanambi@ontolimitwarmingto1.5oC…spurringnew

miCgaConanalysis

GE.15-21930(E) *1521930*

Conference of the Parties Twenty-first session Paris, 30 November to 11 December 2015

Agenda item 4(b) Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (decision 1/CP.17) Adoption of a protocol, another legal instrument, or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties

ADOPTION OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT

Proposal by the President

Draft decision -/CP.21

The Conference of the Parties,

Recalling decision 1/CP.17 on the establishment of the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action,

Also recalling Articles 2, 3 and 4 of the Convention,

Further recalling relevant decisions of the Conference of the Parties, including decisions 1/CP.16, 2/CP.18, 1/CP.19 and 1/CP.20,

Welcoming the adoption of United Nations General Assembly resolution A/RES/70/1, “Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development”, in particular its goal 13, and the adoption of the Addis Ababa Action Agenda of the third International Conference on Financing for Development and the adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction,

Recognizing that climate change represents an urgent and potentially irreversible threat to human societies and the planet and thus requires the widest possible cooperation by all countries, and their participation in an effective and appropriate international response, with a view to accelerating the reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions,

Also recognizing that deep reductions in global emissions will be required in order to achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention and emphasizing the need for urgency in addressing climate change,

Acknowledging that climate change is a common concern of humankind, Parties should, when taking action to address climate change, respect, promote and consider their respective obligations on human rights, the right to health, the rights of indigenous peoples,

United Nations FCCC/CP/2015/L.9

Distr.: Limited 12 December 2015 Original: English

TheParisAgreementalsoenshrinedanambi@ontolimitwarmingto1.5oC…spurringnew

miCgaConanalysis

Limi6ngwarmingin2100:Cumula6veglobalCO2emissionbudget2011-2100

median[interquar@lerange]

1140GtCO2[1110-1150]

790GtCO2[470-1085]

365GtCO2[275-425]

2oC(50-66%) 2oC

(>66%) 1.5oC(>50%)

~200GtCO2

usedup2011-2016

2011

2100

2oCscenariosarecharacterisedin116pathwaysby15globalmodels…

Clarkeetal.2014.IPCCAR5WG3.Chapter6.AssessingTransforma@onPathways.

scenarioinsightsfor2oCsystemtransforma6on-rapiddecarbonisa@on-pervasiveelectrifica@on-majorshi]sininvestment-coststodelayingac@on-sustainedcon@nua@onofhistoricalefficiencyimprovements

scenarioinsightsfor1.5oCsystemtransforma6on-morerapiddecarbonisa@on-morepervasiveelectrifica@on-moremajorshi]sininvestment-morecoststodelayingac@on-moresustainedcon@nua@onofhistoricalefficiencyimprovements

1.5oCscenariosnowindemand

Rogeljetal.2015.NatureClimateChange5:519-528.

threecri@ques1.  modelsshare

commonelementswhichshaperesults

2.  importantreal-worldprocessesle]toexpostinterpreta@on

3.  scenariostendtowardscertaintypesoffuture

Currentapproachestoscenarios&modellingofferdiminishingreturnsoninsightsfor1.5oCmi@ga@on

modelinputs&constraints

corem

odel

design

scenariostorylines

modeloutput

insightsonmi6ga6on(techno-economicpoten$als)

Cri@que(1):modelssharecommondesignfeatureswhichinfluencetheiranalysisofmi@ga@onpoten6als

economicequilibrium(climatepolicyascostly)

asymmetricalresolu@onofenergysupplyandend-use

technologychoicesbasedonfinancialacributes

…

costasop@misa@oncriterion

limita@ons

Cri@que(2):Keydriversandfeaturesofsystemtransforma@onarenotintegraltomi@ga@onanalysis

realworldprocesses

sociallegi6macy

poli6cs&decisionmaking

changingins6tu6ons

suddenevents&disrup6ons

contextualunderstandingofrealworldmi6ga6on

modelinputs&constraints

corem

odel

design

scenariostorylines

modeloutput

insightsonmi6ga6on(techno-economicpoten$als)

expostinterpreta@on

novelgoods&services

Cri@que(3):Mi@ga@onscenarioshaveasystema6ctendencytomaponlyasubsetofallpossiblefutures

“…legiCmaterolesof

scienCstsasmapmakersandpolicy-makersasnavigators…”Edenhofer&Minx(2014).Science345(6192):37-38.

The1569Mercatormap:greatclarity&detail…andlotsofunchartedterritory

prosperitywithoutgrowth

sufficiencynon-commercialtechnologies

disrup6vechange

…

GDPgrowth

efficiencycurrenttechnologyporOolios

smoothtransi6ons

…

2oCscenariosunchartedterritory

Cri@que(3):Mi@ga@onscenarioshaveasystema6ctendencytomaponlyasubsetofallpossiblefutures

decentralisa6on,modularity centralisedsystems

threecri@ques1.  modelsshare

commonelementswhichshaperesults

2.  importantreal-worldprocessesle]toexpostinterpreta@on

3.  scenariostendtowardscertaintypesoffuture

Thepost-Paris‘demand’for1.5oCscenariosopensupexci@ngopportuni6esforglobalmi@ga@onanalysis

threeresponsesØ  useapluralityof

analy@caltoolstoexploresystemtransforma@on

Ø  exanteintegra@onofsocialscienceintoscenariodesignsandanaly@caltools

Ø  diversifystorylinestomapoutawiderrangeofpossiblefutures

1.  challengesfor1.5oCscenariosandmodelling

2.   granulartechnologies(andpoten@alcontribu@onto1.5oC)

3.  disrup@velowcarboninnova@ons(andpoten@alcontribu@onto1.5oC)

Atalkofthreeparts…andmorethanthreeprops

‘lumpy’largeunitsizehighunitcostindivisible

‘granular’smallunitsizelowunitcostmodular

Canaprolifera6onofgranulartechnologiesacceleratesystemtransforma@ontowards1.5oC?

10benefitsofgranularity:

(1)loweradop$oneffort->fasterdiffusion(7)shorterlife$mes->lowerriskoflock-in(8)lowerbarrierstoadop$on->moreequitable

Granularity(1):loweradop6oneffort(investmentperunit)resultsinfasterdiffusion

diffusion@me(∆t)of35innova@onsintheUS

35%ofvariancein∆texplainedbyinvestmentsize(exc.3outlierslinkedtoWW2)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1.0E+00 1.0E+02 1.0E+04 1.0E+06 1.0E+08 1.0E+10 1.0E+12

∆t(years)

investmentsize(2009$)

Investmentsizevs.∆t(diffusion)35energy&industrialinnovaDonsintheUS

granular lumpy

Granularity(7):shorterlife6mesofsmallerunitsenablerapidturnoverandreduceriskoflock-in

lock-in=resistancetochangeintechnologicalsystemscauses:-  technological-  ins@tu@onal-  behavioural

granularity:-  shorterlife6mes-  morevariety-  rapidinnova@on

y=1.777ln(x)+12.428R²=0.75526

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1.0E-03 1.0E-01 1.0E+01 1.0E+03 1.0E+05 1.0E+07

Averagetechnicallife

Cme(years)

Averageunitsizeatto(kW)

Granularity(unitsize)vs.technicallifeCme

granular lumpy

Granularity(8):lowerbarrierstoadop@onresultinmoreequitabledistribu6on(andsolegi@macy)

Ginicoefficient=measureofdistribu@onal(in)equalitycalculatedfromLorenzcurveswhichplotcumula@ve%ofpeoplevs.cumula@ve%ofaccess

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00

Mobilephones

Bicycles

TVs

PCs

Cars

Cleanwater(improvedwatersource)

Toilet(improvedsanitaDon)

Electricity

Broadbandinternet

Ginicoefficient

GlobalAccesstoInfrastructures&Technologies

moregranular

moregranular

INFRASTRUCTURES

END-USETECHNOLOGIES

EQUAL UNEQUAL

Granulartechnologiesoffermanypoten@albenefitsforrapidsystemtransforma6on(neededfor1.5oC)

[1]fasterdiffusion

[8]moreequitabledistribu@on

[7]lowerlock-inrisk

[2]loweradop@on

risk

[1]fasterdiffusion

[3]morerapid

learning

[5]largermarketsizes

[4]shorterforma6vephases

[8]moreequitabledistribu@on

[9]moreleverage

oversystemefficiency

[6]fasterspa6aldiffusion

[7]lowerlock-inrisk

[10]morelegi6macy

innova@on diffusionsystem

outcomes

Granulartechnologiesoffermanypoten@albenefitsforrapidsystemtransforma6on(neededfor1.5oC)

1.  challengesfor1.5oCscenariosandmodelling

2.  granulartechnologies(andpoten@alcontribu@onto1.5oC)

3.   disrup6velowcarboninnova6ons(andpoten@alcontribu@onto1.5oC)

Atalkofthreeparts…andmorethanthreeprops

Historicalenergytransi@onsaretheoutcomeofnovelserviceacributesforendusers(us!)

Historicalenergytransi@onsaretheoutcomeofnovelserviceacributesforendusers(us!)

•  novelaWributesinclude:-func@onality-versa@lity-reliability-convenience-efficiency-cleanliness(atpointofuse)-…

MostlowCinnova@onsin1.5-2oCscenarioscompeteonalreadyvaluedaWributesSustaininginnova6ons->improvecurrentlyvaluedacributes

Sustaininginnova6ons->improvecurrentlyvaluedacributes

Disrup$veinnova6ons->offernovelacributes,createnewvalue

Disrup@veinnova@onsoffernovelaWributestousers…andcanrapidlychangemarkets

power-speed-

storage-lowcostperMB-

portability-versa@lity-codeability-

lowcostperunit-

Examplesofpoten@allydisrup@veinnova@onstomobility:alterna@vestocarownership

ownership-upfrontcost-

independence-

usage-based-care-free-rela@onal-

choicevariety-

Sustaininginnova6ons->improvecurrentlyvaluedacributes

Disrup$veinnova6ons->offernovelacributes,createnewvalue

Innovatorsandresearchersattwoworkshopsrankedpoten@allydisrup@veinnova@ons

Fulldetails&synthesisreportat:silci.org

‘Mostdisrup@ve’tocarownership:mobility-as-a-service&electricvehicle-to-grid

car-sharinge-bikes

electricvehiclesautonomous

vehicles

mobility-as-a-service

H2FCvehicles

advancedbiofuels

ride-sharing

fuel-efficientICEs

tele-commu>ng

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

10MobilityInnova/ons

poten&allyverydisrup+ve

notpoten&allydisrup+veatall

largepo

ten&

alincrea

seinemissions largepoten&alreduc+oninem

issions

convergenceofdigitalandenergyisopeningupnew

servicese.g.,vehicle-to-grid

‘Mostdisrup@ve’tocarownership:mobility-as-a-service&electricvehicle-to-grid

convergenceofdigitalandenergyisopeningupnew

servicese.g.,vehicle-to-grid

“Mobility-as-a-servicewillreduceenergy

demandby80%and

emissionsbyover90%.

…Assumingconcurrent

disrupConofthe

electricityinfrastructure

bysolarandwind,we

mayseealargely

carbon-freeroad

transportaConsystem

by2030(intheUS).”

Arbib & Seba (2017). Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030. RethinkX.

‘Mostdisrup@ve’tocarownership:mobility-as-a-service&electricvehicle-to-grid

1.  challengesfor1.5oCscenariosandmodelling

2.  granulartechnologies(andpoten@alcontribu@onto1.5oC)

3.  disrup@velowcarboninnova@ons(andpoten@alcontribu@onto1.5oC)

Atalkofthreeparts…andmorethanthreeprops

threecri@ques1.  modelsshare

commonelementswhichshaperesults

2.  importantreal-worldprocessesle]toexpostinterpreta@on

3.  scenariostendtowardscertaintypesoffuture

Thepost-Paris‘demand’for1.5oCscenariosopensupexci@ngopportuni6esforglobalmi@ga@onanalysis

threeresponsesØ  useapluralityof

analy@caltoolstoexploresystemtransforma@on

Ø  exanteintegra@onofsocialscienceintoscenariodesignsandanaly@caltools

Ø  diversifystorylinestomapoutawiderrangeofpossiblefutures

Thinkingdifferentlytolimitglobalwarmingto1.5oC

CharlieWilsonStayintouch!silci.org

Starting Grant #678799