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Expert Comment Thinking beyond contemporary world order: The report for the DOC Rhodes Forum 2019 – a taster Klaus Schwab, founder and executive chairman of the World Economic Forum, talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping during their meeting in Beijing, China, April 2018. (Credit: Naohiko Hatta/Pool/Getty Images/Getty Images News)

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Page 1: Thinking beyond contemporary world order: The …...Expert Comment Thinking beyond contemporary world order: The report for the DOC Rhodes Forum 2019 – a taster Klaus Schwab, founder

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Thinking beyond contemporary world order: The report for the DOC Rhodes Forum 2019 – a taster

Klaus Schwab, founder and executive chairman of the World Economic Forum, talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping during their meeting in Beijing, China, April 2018. (Credit: Naohiko Hatta/Pool/Getty Images/Getty Images News)

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Copyright © 2019 by Dialogue of Civilizations Research Institute The right of Richard Higgott to be identified as the author of this publication is hereby asserted. The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the original author(s) and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views and opinions of the Dialogue of Civilizations Research Institute, its co-founders, or its staff members. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law. For permission requests, please write to the publisher: Dialogue of Civilizations Research Institute gGmbH Französische Straße 23 10117 Berlin Germany +49 30 209677900 [email protected]

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Thinking beyond contemporary world order:

The report for the DOC Rhodes Forum 2019 – a taster

Richard Higgott

Introduction

The 2019 DOC Rhodes Forum will explore dialogue-based strategies to address the

dysfunctional state of contemporary global (dis)order. In preparation for the Forum, the

Dialogue of Civilizations Research Institute (DOC) commissioned a review of world order.

This review became the report produced for the Forum. Titled Civilisations, states, and

world order: Where are we? Where are we heading? the report does three things:

it provides a ‘state of play’ description of the contemporary order, and especially

the challenges to the long-standing American led liberal international order;

it identifies the key obstacles inhibiting the prospects for the reform of that order;

it identifies, by implication, five alternative models of future of world order.

The report is long, at some 40,000 words. This short paper captures its essence. It is, of

necessity, an exercise in assertion. Readers wishing to see the full argumentation and

documentation supporting these assertions are invited to read the full report.

Scholars and practitioners have traditionally used two sets of distinct lenses through

which to analyse world order: the politico strategic and the economic. For too long these

lenses have been used separately. This is no longer appropriate. More importantly, and this

is perhaps the report's major innovation, we must also use a third set of lenses which the

report calls cultural and civilisational.

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The increasing recourse to the language of the ‘civilizational state’ by China, India,

Russia, and Turkey especially – but not exclusively – necessitates the importance of this

third set of lenses. But the report also goes a step further than the highly specialised normal

approaches to looking at world order. It recognises that the pursuit of three distinct and

separates roads to analysis is no longer useful. The report is thus what Albert Hirschmann

(1981) calls a necessary exercise in cross-disciplinary trespassing. This is of course messy,

but it reflects the complexity of modern world order.

This article is made up of three sections. Section one details our three understandings

of world order – geopolitical, geo-economic, and geo-cultural – and identifies the major issue

determining the future direction of world order, namely the currently deteriorating US-China

relationship; section two looks at the preferred views of world order emanating from the

major actors and some scenarios for the shape of future world order. Section three asks to

what extent ‘civilisational dialogue’ offers a way to negotiate the reform of the contemporary

world order.

1. Looking at world order

The changing nature of the political world order

Put boldly, we have never had a liberal world order, notwithstanding the use of that

nomenclature for over 50 years. We have only had a geo-spatially partial and selectively

liberal American World Order (AWO) (Acharya, 2017) underwritten by an occasionally “self-

binding US hegemony” (Martin, 2004). This AWO is challenged now more than at any time

since 1945.

Indeed, it is not an exaggeration to talk about the end of a US-led liberal order. These

challenges to a US-led liberal order are multi-dimensional. In point form only, they are

reflected in:

the emergence of a “populist-nationalist zeitgeist” (see Higgott and Proud, 2017);

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the emergence of the new “Great Game” in Asia and Eurasia;

the backlash against economic globalisation;

US assistance in the challenge to its own order over time through poor domestic

policy choices.

It is worth noting here that the internal US challenge to the liberal order did not begin with

Donald Trump. While Trump is an accelerator, he is not the original instigator; he is a

symptom, not a cause. US policy had been changing throughout the terms of the

previous four presidents (Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama).

The changing nature of international economic order

The international economic order is in as much trouble as the political order. Five factors are

important here:

Data (presented in the report) supports the argument that de-globalisation, or

certainly the slowing of globalisation, has picked up pace; the global trade regime

exhibits shrinkage and protectionism has gradually increased since the global

financial crisis of 2008.

This has, of course, dramatically escalated with the development of US

protectionist policy – especially but not exclusively towards China – since the

second year of the Trump administration.

There are also genuine questions to be raised about the lasting relevance of

comparative advantage as a theory of international trade. This is in an era when

trade is principally in services and advanced technology, conducted through

complex supply chains, and when opposition to an open liberal trading regime has

become the favourite weapon of populist politicians actively encouraging an era

of “new mercantilism” (see DOC Research Institute, 2019, pp. 32-36).

The utility of international economic institutions as vehicles for collective action

problem solving and dispute resolution, especially but not only the WTO, are

increasingly challenged.

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The international financial system is fragile and the prospects of a currency war

between the US and China are growing. As Robert Kagan pointedly puts it, “…

jungles can grow back” (Kagan, 2017).

The changing nature of international cultural order

Contest at the international level has moved beyond geopolitics and geo-economics and

now also reflects a growing contest around issues of a cultural and civilisational nature. This

is reflected in a number of factors, four of which should be mentioned here:

The growing resistance to the assumed universalism of ‘Western values’.

The re-assertion of the historical traditions of the great civilisations, notably China

and India.

Renewed talk of the prospects of a “clash of civilisations” of the kind initially

envisaged by Samuel Huntington (1993) and increasingly underwritten by

seemingly politically irreconcilable narratives emanating not only from the

historical civilization states such as India and China but even the US. The US

position is captured in the words of Donald Trump: “The West will never be broken.

Our values will prevail. Our people will thrive. And our civilization will triumph”

(@realDonaldTrump, 6 July 2017) and Kiron Skinner, a former Assistant

Secretary of State, who saw the Cold War with Russia as “a fight within the

Western family” while China, by contrast, was the “first great power competitor

that is not Caucasian” (Ward, 2019).

The Rise of “Quantum Politics” (see Thornhill, 2019) in which digital

communication, social media, and atomised, individualist online activity

(invariably aggressive and self-feeding) have revolutionised the nature of politics,

both domestically and internationally (Sunstein, 2017).

The major challenges to the future of the international orders are multiple, but it is the

deteriorating relationship between the US and China over the last several years that

provokes the most concern. It has become clear that the trade imbalance in the US-China

relationship is merely a second-order problem and the rationale for a much bigger contest

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for global ascendancy, especially in the contest to be the global leader in the development

of advanced technology, artificial intelligence, cyber security, and indeed ideas. Section

three reflects on these challenges for world order reform.

2. Preferred visions of a new world order

The US under the presidency of Donald Trump is an economically revisionist but politically

status quo power. Its economic record on globalisation is mixed: massive benefits have been

secured for and by US cosmopolitan and corporate elites while other sections of the US

community have suffered disastrously negative distributional consequences. This is

especially the case in those manufacturing communities that have undergone de-

industrialisation.

Politically, the US has not coped well with its declining global status; much of its

difficulty is self-inflicted by bad policy choices and has been rapidly exacerbated since the

arrival of Donald Trump. Hence, the US wants a revisionist bilateral, transactional, and

mercantilist economic world order which puts China back in its place through a process of

de-coupling. But in the political order it wants a status quo, which sees it remain as the

unchallenged global political leader.

By contrast, China, and India, are economically status quo powers and politically

revisionist powers. Both great powers have benefitted massively from economic

globalisation and are, not surprisingly, invested in the reform of globalisation, not its

overthrow. They are more wedded to wider, dare we say multilateral, international economic

reform than the US. But they are keen on the revision of the international political order

where they want a greater share in the global decision-making processes than they have

had in the past. They want no repeat of past historical humiliations, be it the Opium Wars

for China or the legacies of British imperialism in India. They also want recognition of their

great historical standing as well as their contemporary great power status.

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Russia has been less a beneficiary of economic globalisation and, as a

consequence, is less economically and politically invested in international economic reform.

While clearly a revisionist power in its attitude to the current world order, its aims are more

limited but no less strongly held. Politically, it wants a restoration of prestige lost in the

collapse of the Soviet Union and the expansion of NATO into what it considers its legitimate

orbit after the end of the Cold War. In short, it wants its own sphere of influence. Its governing

economic and political elite are also deeply concerned with system maintenance. In the

words of Anders Aslund (2019), it is keen to ensure the survival of the Russian “kleptocratic

state”.

Europe is something of an outlier from the other major players. It is an unambiguous

supporter of an international order underwritten by liberal principles and multilateralism built

upon the practices of collective action problem solving via international institutions. It is what

I would call a reformist status quo power with lingering love for an idealised multilateral order

that never was.

But the EU’s effectiveness as a policy actor has been limited by its self-acknowledged

“existential crisis” (EU, 2016) of the last five or so years, the rise of populism and nationalism

across the continent, growing opposition to the accretion of power to Brussels, and the Brexit

crisis. While the populist-nationalist surge was contained somewhat in the May 2019

elections, it is too early to tell what kind of role Brussels can play in the future debate over

world order given the tensions between its in-principle commitment to a multilateral order

and the strong nationalist and anti-globalisation tendencies of a considerable number of its

member states.

If, on the back of this analysis, we were to speculate on the possible direction of future

world order, perhaps five different scenarios present themselves:

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1. A partially liberal, but post-hegemonic, order of the kind envisioned by US and

European liberals (see for example Luce, 2018 and Ikenberry, 2018). This order

would keep much of the diplomatic and institutional infrastructure of

multilateralism, but with a greater role for other major states. In this order,

negotiable reform is possible provided some accommodation can be found for

Chinese and the other emerging power interests. This is unlikely to happen

however with the current administration in Washington.

2. Not dissimilar to the first scenario is what Acharya (2017) calls a “multiplex” world

order in which reform is negotiable but limited to dialogue between consolidating

manageable regional structures like the trans-Atlantic, Asia Pacific/East Asia, and

Eurasian structures. Both these first and second scenarios will be reliant on the

growing hybridity of non-state actors in international relations to substitute for the

limited future reach of international institutions. We might call both eventualities

reformist transformations, which are not as strongly revisionist as projections

three-to-five.

3. A nationalist, antagonistic, great power order with US and China competition at

its core, as seen by US realist scholars and practitioners (Allison, 2018;

Mearsheimer, 2018; and Kagan, 2017). Prospects for negotiated reform in this

scenario are unlikely in an era of hyper-realist ‘strongman’ politics.

4. An Asian (China) dominated world order as envisaged by Kishore Mahbubani

(2018) and Parag Khanna (2018). While economic, political, and social trend data

would suggest this is a most likely scenario, a question mark still hangs – and will

continue to hang – over the wider attractiveness of the Chinese model for the

future of that order. Resistance in Asia to Chinese political influence is much

stronger than resistance to China’s growing economic position.

5. Finally, the current interest in civilisational dialogue suggests that a multi-

civilisational world order is not impossible (Coker 2019; Rachmann, 2019). Not

unlike the nationalist model (scenario three), this suggests an irreconcilable

ideological standoff, contest, and polarisation amongst the major competing

‘civilisations’ with the prospect of negotiated reform highly improbable.

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3. Can ‘civilisational dialogue’ be a vehicle for negotiating world order reform?

The preceding discussion of attitudes to the current world order leads us to pose the ‘so

what?’ question of how discussions over the future of world order might proceed. The

growing debate over the role of civilisational states is causing some international voices to

advocate global civilisational dialogue. Indeed, that is the self-assigned mission of the

Dialogue of Civilizations Research Institute. It is an undoubtedly laudable aspiration. But the

pursuit of such a goal must be tempered by the reality of the cold light of day. While the

report prepared for the Rhodes Forum treats the aspiration seriously, one of its major tasks

has been to highlight the constraints that world order reform in the current era faces. Six

constraints should be listed here:

The negative impact of the rise of ‘quantum politics’ and the changing nature of

political dialogue.

The negative impact of enhanced civilisational and cultural difference that is

enhancing conflict and coercion at the expense of consensus and cooperation.

The venues and agents of dialogue are under strain and weakening. Specifically,

we are seeing a decline in diplomacy as both an institution and a set of practices

and a decline in multilateral institutions as venues for collective decision making.

Growing disillusionment with (liberal) democracy as an instrument of ‘voice’.

The dominant role in international politics of ‘strong man leaders’ of major powers,

characterised by narcissistic and authoritarian personality traits. And note, they

are all men – Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Narendra Modi, Viktor Orbán, Recep

Tayyip Erdoğan, Jair Bolsonaro, Benjamin Netanyahu, Mohammed Bin Salman,

Rodrigo Duterte; and also the frustrated, still democratically constrained,

‘wannabe’ strongmen leaders such as Donald Trump and Boris Johnson.

The under-representation of women. A dialogue excluding more than 50% of the

world’s population is inevitably destined to be limited and lacking legitimacy.

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Conclusion: What can be done to advance a negotiated global dialogue?

Creating a meta-narrative of culture and civilisation, despite being several millennia in the

making, has not and will not come about overnight. As one observer has noted,

“Moral narratives have enabled humanity to extend their cooperative units

from the family to the tribe to the village to the city-state and from there to

empires and nations. We now require narratives that enable us to extend

our social and political boundaries to address the global problems arising

from our global economy” (Snower, 2019).

Our genetic and cultural evolution has not yet extended to global cooperation. It has to be

the next step. But the paradox of organisation and atomisation fuelled by ‘quantum politics’

and social media far outweigh humanity’s capacity for cooperation, let alone its ability to

build a global civilisational dialogue. The rises of Huntingtonian “clashism” (Nossal,2019)

and irreconcilable civilisational narratives, perhaps as much if not more so than geopolitical

and geo-economic conflict, are emerging as the major problems facing global order. We

need an as yet unsecured system of cross-cultural discursive and negotiating practices that

operate across multiple levels if we are to advance a dialogue of civilisations.

Specialists who work on questions of international order are not serving us well in this

regard. International relations scholarship and practice needs innovative forward-looking

thinking of the kind more likely to be found in management studies, behavioural economics,

and psychology, as opposed to the standard “re-view mirror” thinking captured in the current

obsession of international relations scholars with Thucydides-style analysis of the

implications for the present day of war between Sparta and Athens over 2000 years ago

(Allison, 2018). For sure, historical analogy has its analytical place, but it is clearly a

deterrent to forward-looking innovative thinking.

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Unlike the scholar of international relations, the behavioural economist and the

psychologist would tell us that we need to link any discussion of world order to concrete

interactions between people. The actors in this game are people, not civilisations. And the

concept of ‘civilisation’ is a social and cultural representation. Dialogues between

civilisations are interactions – speech acts and conversations – between people. Dialogue

occurs in a series of fields that comprise different – individual, institutional, and cultural –

moral orders. We must ask who has the right and the power to start, take part in, and

conclude a dialogue? To answer these questions, we need to map the different storylines

used in ‘civilisation-speak’ and analyse the basis of their competing moral positions. These

processes are the precursors of the development of any civilisational dialogue. A task of the

2019 Rhodes Forum will be to seriously explore these processes.

Richard Higgott Researcher and Distinguished Professor of Diplomacy at the Institute of European Studies

and Vesalius College, Vrije Universiteit Brussels and Emeritus Professor of International

Political Economy at the University of Warwick

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References

Acharya, A. (2017) The End of American World Order. Cambridge: Polity.

Allison, G. (2017). Destined for War: Can America and China Escape the Thucydides Trap? New York: Houghton Mifflin.

Aslund, A. (2019). Russia’s Crony Capitalism: The Path from the Market Economy to Kleptocracy. New Haven: Yale University Press.

Coker, C. (2019). The Rise of the Civilisational State. Cambridge: Polity Press

DOC Research Institute (2019). Civilisations, States and World Order: Where are We? Where are we Heading? Berlin: Dialogue of Civilisations Research Institute.

EU (2016). From Shared Vision to Common Action: The EU’s Global Strategic Vision. Retrieved from https://europa.eu/ globalstrategy/en/global-strategy- foreign-and-security-policy-european- union.

Higgott, R. and Proud, V. (2017). Populist Nationalism and Foreign Policy. Stuttgart: Institute Fur Auslandsbeziehungen. Retrieved from https://www.ifa.de/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/ifa_study_Higgott_Proud_Populist-Nationalism.pdf.

Hirschmann, A. O. (1981). Essays in Trespassing: Economics to Politics and Beyond. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Huntington, S. (1993). The Clash of Civilisations. Foreign Affairs,72(3). Retrieved from https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/1993-06-01/clash-civilizations.

Ikenberry, J. (2018). The end of liberal international order? International Affairs, 94(1), pp. 7–23.

Kagan, R. (2017). The Jungle Grows Back. Idea: A journal of Politics and Culture, 1, pp. 12-33.

Khanna, P. (2019). The Future is Asian: Global Order in the 21st Century. London: Weidenfield and Nicholson.

Luce, L. (2018). Henry Kissinger: ‘We are in a very, very grave period’. Financial Times. Retrieved from https://www.ft.com/content/926a66b0-8b49-11e8-bf9e-8771d5404543.

Mahbubani, K. (2018). Has the West Lost it? London: Penguin.

Martin, L. (2004). Self-Binding: How America Benefitted from Multilateralism. Harvard Magazine. Retrieved from https://harvardmagazine.com/2004/09/self-binding.html.

Mearsheimer, J. (2018). The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities. New Haven: Yale University Press.

Nossal, K. (2019). The Limits of ‘Clashist’ Diffusion. Toronto: International Studies Association.

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Rachman, G. (2019). China, India and the ‘civilisation state. The Financial Times. Retrieved from https://www.ft.com/content/b6bc9ac2-3e5b-11e9-9bee-efab61506f44.

Snower, D. (2019). Toward Global Paradigm Change: Beyond the Crisis of the Liberal World Order. Policy Brief Under T20 Japan Task Force 6: Social Cohesion, Global Governance and the Future of Politics. Retrieved from https://t20japan.org/policy-brief-toward-global-paradigm-change/.

Sunstein, C. R. (2017). #Republic: Divided Democracy in the Age of Social Media. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Thornhill, J. (2019, June 14). Armen Sarkissian: ‘The moment you stop learning, you die’. Financial Times. Retrieved from https://www.ft.com/content/d110fbba-8b69-11e9-a1c1-51bf8f989972.

Ward, S. (2019, May 4). Because China isn’t ‘Caucasian,’ the U.S. is planning for a ‘clash of civilizations.’ That could be dangerous. Washington Post. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/05/04/because-china-isnt-caucasian-us-is-planning-clash-civilizations-that-could-be-dangerous/.