Thinking About America’s Immigration Crisis
21
Thinking About America’s Immigration Crisis
description
Thinking About America’s Immigration Crisis. Six Eras of Mexican Migration. Recruitment 1907-1919 Floodtide 1920-1929 Deportations 1930-1941 Bracero 1942-1964 Undocumented 1965-1985 Contradiction 1986-2007. Two Critical Dates in New Era. 1986 Under pressure from U.S. Mexico Joins GATT - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Thinking About America’s Immigration Crisis
Thinking About America’s Immigration Crisis
Regional Origins of Undocumented Migrants
57%
24%
9%
6%4%
MexicoOther Latin AmericaAsiaEurope & CanadaAfrica & Other
Percentage of Undocumented Migrants
56.8
7.13.5 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mexico
Salvad
or
Guatem
ala
Canad
aHait
i
Philipp
ines
Hondu
ras
Dom R
ep
Nicarag
ua
Poland
Country
Perc
enta
ge
Rate of Mexican migration to the US in different categories
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1902 1907 1912 1917 1922 1927 1932 1937 1942 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002
Year
Rat
e pe
r 100
0
Legal Immigration Rate Apprehension Rate Contract Worker Rate Deportation Rate
Gentlemen'sAgreement
US EntersWWI
First USQuota Law
GreatDepression
BraceroProgramBegins
OperationWetback
Bracero Program EndsRestrictive Era Begins
IRCA Enacted
IRCA Legalization
Rate of Mexican migration to the US in different categories
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1902 1907 1912 1917 1922 1927 1932 1937 1942 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002
Year
Rat
e pe
r 100
0
Legal Immigration Rate Apprehension Rate Contract Worker Rate Deportation Rate
Gentlemen'sAgreement
US EntersWWI
First USQuota Law
GreatDepression
BraceroProgramBegins
OperationWetback
Bracero Program EndsRestrictive Era Begins
IRCA Enacted
IRCA Legalization
Six Eras of Mexican Migration
• Recruitment 1907-1919• Floodtide 1920-1929• Deportations 1930-1941• Bracero 1942-1964• Undocumented 1965-1985• Contradiction 1986-2007
Two Critical Dates in New Era• 1986
– Under pressure from U.S. Mexico Joins GATT• Opens Economy to Global Trade and Investment
– U.S. Congress Passes IRCA• Grants Legal Status to 2.3 Million Mexicans• Criminalizes Undocumented Hiring• Begins Militarization of Border
• 1994– Mexico and US Join Together in NAFTA
• Lowers barriers to cross-border movements of goods, capital, resources, information, services, and certain classes of people
– US Launches Operation Gatekeeper in San Diego• All-out Effort to Stop the Inflow of Mexican labor• Erects Steel Wall from Pacific Ocean to Sierra Madre Mountains
Indicators of Cross-Border Economic Integration
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Year
Valu
e R
elat
ive
to 1
986
Total Trade Business Visitors Intercompany Transferees Exchange Visitors
Mexico Joins GATTNAFTA Takes Effect
Indicators of Border Enforcement 1980-2002
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002Year
Valu
e R
elat
ive
to 1
986
Border Patrol Officers Linewatch Hours Border Patrol Budget
IRCA Enacted
Operation GatekeeperLaunched in San Diego
Costs of Contradiction• Transforms Mexican Immigration from a
Regional to a National Phenomenon• Raises Death Rate Among Border Crossers• Lowers the Probability of Border Apprehension• Reduces Rate of Return Migration• Increases the Rate of Settlement• Increase Net Rate of Undocumented Migration• Shifts Composition from Workers to Families• Puts Downward Pressure on US Wages and
Undermines Working Conditions for US Workers
Jorge Durand University of Guadalajara and
Douglas S. Massey Princeton University
http://mmp.opr.princeton.edu/
Current MMP Sample
93 Binational Communities Surveyed 1982-2002 15,992 Households 837 in U.S. Sample Yields Basic Data on: 19,850 U.S. Migrants 12,089 Undocumented Migrants 6,209 Complete Life Histories
Proportion Going to New Crossing Points and Destinations
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Year
Prop
ortio
n of
Mig
rant
s
New Destination New Crossing
IRCA Enacted
Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
Death rate from suffocation, drowning, heat exhaustion, exposure, and unknown causes along border 1986-98
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Year
Rat
e pe
r 1,0
00 E
ntrie
s
Operation Blockade Launched In El Paso
Probability of Apprehension 1980-2001
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Year
Prob
abili
ty
IRCA Enacted
Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
Average Cost of Hiring a Coyote
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Year
Dol
lars
IRCA Enacted
Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
Probability of First Undocumented Migration and Return 1980-2001
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Year
Ann
ual P
roba
bilit
y
Males Females Return
IRCA Enacted
Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
Number of Mexicans in the United States 1980-2002
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002Year
Num
ber i
n Th
ousa
nds
IRCA EnactedOperation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
Average Wages Earned by Mexican Migrants to US
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Year
Hou
rly W
age
Undocumented Documented
IRCA Passes
Composition of foreign born population with respect to legal status 1980-1999.
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Year
Prop
ortio
n in
lega
l cat
egor
y.
Illegal Legal Citizen
