Thin films in India(april 18,2012)

Will Thin Films win in India?

Madhavan Nampoothiri

April 19, 2012

Berlin, Germany

About RESolve

• Advisory firm with strong capabilities in Strategic, Regulatory , Commercial and Technical aspects of renewable energy projects

• Founded by professionals from India and Germany with strong global exposure

• Specific focus on Solar PV and Wind in India

• Assistance in

– Market Entry strategy for solar firms to India

– Market Intelligence on the Indian Solar PV sector

– Concept-to-Commissioning of PV projects

– Policy and Regulatory issues

Agenda

1. Introduction

2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?

3. What is driving the growth?

4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?

5. Conclusion

1. Introduction




5. Conclusion

Agenda

Sun Shines on India

- Solar Resource availability

- 4-7 kWh/Sq.m/day in most parts of India

- Energy supply-demand imbalance

- 80% of oil is imported

- High reliance on imported coal

- Peak power deficit of 12.7%

- 50% of India’s population has very little access to electricity

- GHG emissions

- Policy and Regulatory support(MNRE and various state

governments)

9 27

446

936

482

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

MW

p

Year

India Solar PV growth trajectory

Annual PV Installations

Cumulative Installations

Source: MNRE

Predominantly ground-mounted systems

Policies and Status

Policy(Grid-

connected PV)

Capacity

addition targets

Projects

allocated

status(31st

March 2012)

Commissi

oning

status(31st

March

2012)

Domestic

content

requirement(

DCR)

JNNSM 10 GWp by 2022 ~ 600 MWp

allotted in Phase

1(including

migration

projects)

~ 150

MWp

C-Si : Cells

and Modules

TF : No

mandate

Rajasthan 350 MWp by

2017

Nil Nil No

Gujarat 500 MWp by

2014

~ 500 MWp ~ 300

MWp

No

Madhya Pradesh RPO targets None. 200 MWp

planned for

2012-13

Nil Same as

JNNSM

Orissa RPO targets 25 MWp Nil No

Maharashtra RPO targets 150 MWp Nil; In

process

No

Karnataka 100 MWp by

2016

None. In process Nil No

Regulations

Renewable Purchase

Obligations(RPO)

25 GW(PV and

Thermal) by

2022

Not applicable ~43 MWp

in Private

sector

No

Agenda

1. Introduction




5. Conclusion

C-Si dominates in production….

• C-Si Module manufacturing capacity ~ 1500 MW

• C-Si Cell manufacturing capacity ~ 600 MW

• Thin film manufacturing capacity – Negligible

– Moser Baer, Shurjo Energy and HHV Solar

....but, Thin Film dominates in installations

020406080

100120

Total IREDA NVVN

Inst

alla

tio

ns

in M

Wp

Type of scheme

Technology selection under JNNSM

C-Si Thin FilmsSource: MNRE

- India bucks the global trend

- Thin films grabbed more

than 60% market share

Gujarat State policy

- 60-70% thin films

India – a good export market for global TF

companies

a-Si/μc-Si CIGS CdTe

Dupont USA MiaSolé USA First Solar USA

ECD/Uni-solar USA Q-Cells(Solibro) Germany Abound Solar USA

Masdar PV Germany SolarFrontier Japan

NexPower China

Schott Solar Germany

Sharp Japan

T-Solar Spain

-CdTe very popular, First Solar has high market share(about 200

MWp)

- a-Si, despite lower efficiencies, has gained acceptance

-CIGS also has takers

Note: The above is a partial list of TF companies in India

Agenda

1. Introduction




5. Conclusion

Growth Drivers

Technology

-Temperature coefficient

-Spectral response

Financing

- Ease of financing through

EXIM/ECB route

Cost

- Lower module cost

- Inexpensive land

1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?


a. Technology

4. What could happen?

Thin Film Vs c-Si

Advantages

• Temperature coefficient

• Better performance under

diffuse light conditions

• Higher Energy Yield

• Faster energy payback

• Module grounding not

required for frameless

modules

Disadvantages

• Conversion efficiencies

• Area requirement

• Higher BOS requirement

• Breakage

• Aging behavior not known

• Materials shortage/toxicity

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

Cco

nve

rsio

n e

ffic

ien

cy

Temperature(Deg C)

Efficiency drop at elevated

temperatures

a-Si CdTe CIGS

C-Si(Mono) c-Si(Multi)

Temperature coefficient & Spectral response

– The TF USP..

- Higher theoretical TF

energy yield during peak

season

• Better performance under diffuse

light; lesser shading effect

• Higher energy yield

The result : Higher energy yield for TF

- Theoretically, TF consistently generating more electricity

Source: GTM Research

But..- First Solar raised the warranty outlay for modules used in

hotter regions- Anxiety about long term performance of TF is growing



b. Costs


Module cost : C-Si closing in, but TF still

maintains some advantage.

Source: pvxchange.com and others

-CIGS price/Wp closer to c-Si

0.45

0.65

0.85

1.05

1.25

1.45

1.65

1.85

2.05

2.25

Euro

/Wp

Spot price(Euro/Wp)

Avg C-Si(Germany) Avg C-Si(Japan/Korea) Avg c-Si(China/Taiwan)

CdTe Silicon Tandem(a-Si/Micro-Si) Amorphous Silicon

Land, BoS and O&M Costs

– Disadvantage for Thin Films

BOS cost comparison : c-Si v CdTe

Land, BOS and O&M high

• Land requirement higher for Thin Films(Leads to more

exposed area – more cleaning, more manpower

requirement)

• BoS requirement higher because of lower efficiencies

(More BOS means more Strings, more cable, more

Fuses and more breakdown possibilities)

Source: GTM Research$13,000 higher for Thin Film plant

Still …Overall cost lower than c-Si

• Land cost in India is negligible

• Higher BOS cost offset by lower module

price

• O&M Labor cost low

Marketing mantra for TF -$/kWh and not $/Wp



c. Financing


Cost of Financing

• Local Content Requirement for C-Si, but not for TF.

• Project financing – very challenging to secure

• Indian banks are more comfortable with recourse-to-balance sheet financing

• EXIM, ECB banks offer attractive interest rates

• Even after hedging and insurance, cost of capital at 8-9% as against 13%+ for local financing

But….US EXIM financed company – Abound Solar has shut down production

Agenda

1. Introduction




5. Conclusion

Thin films domination to continue, but there

are clouds in the horizon

• JNNSM - Round 2 : 350 MW allotted

– 300 MWp of projects will be in Rajasthan

– At least 250 MW expected to go for thin films

• State solar policies(Gujarat, Karnataka, Rajasthan) – TF likely to dominate

• But questions about stability of performance at high temperature set to increase

• Bankability of TF companies(eg. Abound Solar) is also a concern

Agenda

1. Introduction




5. Conclusion

Takeaways..

• Thin film technology adopted by majority of Indian

developers

• Yield, lower capital cost and better financing options

driving TF growth in India

• Local content mandates have had limited impact

• Global TF manufacturers benefitting from India’s

solar boom…

• … but the Indian TF manufacturing ecosystem is yet

to evolve

Conclusion – Thin film will win in India, if..

• Bankability questions are properly answered.– First Solar performance in high temperature conditions

– Abound Solar’s capabilities

• Higher energy yield is proven in the field over a period of time

• Thin Film remains cost competitive(land cost, capital cost, O&M cost) relative to c-Si

Bottom line – Technology with best $/kWh will win

Thank you

Madhavan Nampoothiri

+91-98848-29214

[email protected]

www.re-solve.in

mailto:[email protected]



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Thin films in India(april 18,2012)

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