Bryan Williams, MBA, CFREExecutive Director

Community Foundation of South Lake

Using a Theory of ChangeFor More Effective Proposals

Agenda

Section 1: What is a theory of change?

Section 2: Why is it important?

Section 3: How do I develop a theory of change?

Section 4: How to I incorporate it into a proposal?

Section 5: Pitfalls to avoid

CFSLC's Granting Strategy

Strengthen relationships with grantees

Support nonprofit resilience

Learn for improvement

Collaborate*

* Grantmakers for Effective Organizations

CFSLC's Granting Strategy

Set by grant committee

Currently focused on measuring impact

Committed to significant community change

Moving from smaller grants to larger, front loaded grants

Grants are available, starts with a letter of intent

Program Life Cycle

Funding Opportunity

Funding Opportunity

Guiding Principles “Theory of change is a basic set of principles or values

about the way we do our work.”

What is a Theory of Change?

Types of Theories

Systemic Social Change

Comprehensive Community

Organizational

Single Program Very important for a single organization to

understand its role within a complex problem

What is a theory of change?

Theory of Change defines all building blocks required to bring about a given long-term goal. This set of connected building blocks–interchangeably referred to as outcomes, results, accomplishments, or preconditions is depicted on a map known as a pathway of change, which is a graphic representation of the change process.*

It is specific to your program or organization, not general

Logic Model versus Theory of Change

* www.theoryofchange.org

What is a theory of change?

It is a tool for setting, goals, strategies, and success measures

It's a set of connected activities

People tend to overcomplicate it

My definition: testing or scaling an idea for generating significant social change within a constituency and figuring out whether we are right or wrong

What is a theory of change?

Typical Grant: We have X program that helps Y constituents, we've

historically seen Z results. Give us more money to do X

Theory of Change Grant: The problem is X. We want to accomplish Y. We

think we can accomplish Y for X by doing Z Give us money to prove Z

Testing “A theory is something you test. Ideally, its

components are based on empirical research, but -

and this is the point - the theory is not proven."

Why is it important?

Why is it important?

Foundations that use Theory of Change to determine funding:

Kauffman Foundation - $2 billion in assetsGates Foundation - $41 billionRockefeller Foundation - $4 billionRobert Wood Johnson Foundation - $10 billionKellogg Foundation - $7 billionAnnie Casey Foundation - $3 billionFord Foundation - $12 billionEdna McConnell Clark Foundation - $965 millionHewlett Packard Foundation - $110 million

Why is it important?

"Stakeholders value theories of change as part of program planning and evaluation because they create a commonly understood vision of the long-term goals, how they will be reached, and what will be used to measure progress along the way."

Why is it important for funders?

Clearly defines success

Clearly defines target population

Clearly defines activities

Clearly defines success measurement

Clearly defines evaluations

Builds in an ability to pivot

Why is it important to organizations?

A theory of change should give the organization:

A clear picture of program purpose for all staff

A stronger sense of organizational needs

A greater capacity for analysis

A blueprint for evaluation

Credibility

Why is it important?

Theory of Change Grant: There are 14 agencies serving constituent X. Out of the 14

agencies who have been funded, agency Y has shown the greatest results in proving their theory of change for constituent X. CFSLC will now either fund only agency Y or they will only fund the other agencies if they adopt the theory of change.

Agency Y addresses hunger with a proven theory of change. Agency Z addresses homelessness with a proven theory of change. Let's bring Y and Z together and see if we can create significant social change.

Thoughts?

I'm just a grant writer, what does this have to do with me?

I entered this profession because I want to get rich.

I entered this profession because I want to make a difference in my community and leave a legacy.

Planning “A theory of change is not a program plan, but it

establishes habits of mind that let you create a good

program plan.”

How do I develop a theory of change?

Single Program*

1. What is the problem?2. Who are you seeking to benefit (target population)?3. Why do you believe your theory will work? (RESEARCH)4. What results are you trying to achieve?5. When will you achieve them?6. How will you make this happen (activities, strategies, resources)?7. How will you know if you achieved your results?8. What will be the resulting impact?

* Modified from Matthew Forti, Six Theory of Change Pitfalls to Avoid

Developing a Theory of Change

It's a roadmap that begins at the problem And moves to the long-term end goal and works backwards Components Are:

Outcomes Target population Activities leading to outcomes Assumptions Rationales Indicators Success Measures

Theory of Change Example

Problem: Only 9% of students from low-income communities graduate from collegeAssumptions:

Low graduation rates are due to low college attendance rates Students have difficulty navigating the admissions and financial aid/scholarship process Students do not enter college 100% prepared for success Students who successfully complete year 1 of college have a greater chance of graduation Mentors, both adult and peer to peer, can assist with the college transition

Long Term-Outcome: Increase college graduation rates of low income students from 9% to 25% within 5 yearsTarget Population: Low income students within a specified geographic areaPopulation versus Served: 10% of the total population of 3,477 or 347 individualsActivities: Admissions and scholarship counseling, college preparation classes, peer to peer and adult mentoring, and tutoring.

Theory of Change Example

Activity

Break into groups of 3 or 4 and develop at least one theory of change.

Social Change “If you don't have a theory of change through which

that social good is going to be created, a business

plan lacks the appropriate level of focus on the

creation of social value.”

How do I incorporate it into a proposal?

Proposal Sections

Problem Statement

What is the problem we are addressing?

Who is the target population?

Theory of ChangeWhat are the outcomes

we are hoping for?

What activities will create the change?

Measure and AdaptHow will we define success?

How do I prove it?

Building Into a Proposal

Explain your theory of change in the opening paragraph or as early as possible. Label it.

Describe your comparison group

Problem is the core, theory is the surrounding center

If you have research, note it

Outcomes and evaluations point back to the theory

It's Common “Half of nonprofits report having a theory of change,

and, of those, nearly 80 percent either created or

revised it in the past year."

* Matthew Forti

Six Pitfalls to Avoid*

Six Pitfalls to Avoid

1. Confusing accountability with hope Results and measurements are stated. You will be either

right or wrong, there is no in between.2. Creating a mirror instead of a target

It's not what an organization is already doing3. Failing to take external context into account

OT, in the SWOT setting, it takes into account the potential opportunities and threats that could enhance results or inhibit success

Six Pitfalls to Avoid

4. Not confirming the plausibility of your theory Use outside sources - research, analysis, papers, experts,

constituents - to determine whether your theory is supported

5. Creating a theory that isn't measurable Articulate the input, output, and outcome indicators; if you

can't, dig deeper6. Assuming you've figured it all out

There will be stumbling blocks, but if you have the ability to consistently measure and adapt they won't be brick walls

Contacts and More Information

Presentation will be available under the Receive tab on our websitewww.innovativephilanthropy.org

ContactsBryan Williams, Executive Director, bryan@cfslc.org

Tiffany Gay, Director of Community Outreach, tiffany@cfslc.org

Kathy Smith, Director of Community Investment, Kathy@cfslc.org