Theories of Change

John Young

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A Theory of Change is…

• locates a programme or project within a wider analysis of how change comes about;

• draws on external learning about development.• articulates our understanding of change - but also

challenges us to explore it further.• acknowledges the complexity of change: the wider systems

and actors that influence it• often presented in diagrammatic form with an

accompanying narrative summary

Comic Relief, 2011

An ongoing process of reflection on how change happens, and the role we can play:

A bit like (a proper) log frame

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Goal Indicator MoV

Purpose Indicator MoV Assumptions/Risks

Output 1 Indicator MoV Assumptions/Risks

Output 2 Indicator MoV

Output 3 Indicator MoV

Output 4 Indicator MoV

√√

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Types

• Causal Chain - succession of elements with logical links (eg log-frame approach)

• Dimensions of influence - overlapping domains which interact, where it is possible to influence (eg RAPID CEL Framework)

• Actor-centred theories - where the behaviour of actors can be influenced (eg Outcome Mapping)

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How to do it

1. Identify what want to achieve.2. Identify the people / organisations / processes are

involved and how they influence change.3. Map them.4. Identify how you can influence them.5. Identify which options will provide most value for

money.6. Decide what to monitor to see if you are on track.7. Identify the resources and management processes

do you need.

RAPID Outcome Mapping Approach

Start by defining your policy objectives –

constantly review them during the

process

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www.theoryofchange.org

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www.theoryofchange.org

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Ecosystems for Poverty Alleviation

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Ecosystems for Poverty Alleviation

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Ecosystems for Poverty Alleviation

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Ecosystems for Poverty Alleviation

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Ecosystems for Poverty Alleviation

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DFID Research & Evidence Division

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Resources• Comic Relief Theory of Change Review 2011 - http://dmeforpeace.org/sites/default/

files/James_ToC.pdf • A Guide to monitoring and evaluating policy influence. Harry Jones. ODI Background

Note 2011- http://www.odi.org.uk/resources/details.asp?id=5252&title=monitoring-evaluation-me-policy-influence

• Research to Action listing of resources on Theories of Change: http://www.researchtoaction.org/theory-of-change-useful-resources/

• Keystone Accountabilities Guide to Developing a Theory of Change: http://www.researchtoaction.org/theory-of-change-useful-resources/

• Key questions to ask when putting together a Theory of Change for Research Uptake by Andrew Clappison: http://www.researchtoaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Key-questions-to-ask-when-putting-together-a-Theory-of-Change-for-Research-Uptake-by-Andrew-Clappison.pdf

• DFID Guide to Managing the Inception Phase of Research Programme Consortia - http://www.dfid.gov.uk/R4D/PDF/Publications/RPC_Inception_Guidance.pdf

• Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation Theory of Change - http://www.espa.ac.uk/sites/all/modules/pubdlcnt/pubdlcnt.php?file=http://www.espa.ac.uk/files/espa/ESPA-Theory-of-Change.pdf&nid=37183

Any questions?