Theoretical and methodological issues in the

study of the outcomes of social movements Marco Giugni

University of Geneva

Structure of presentation

Definitional issues State of research Theoretical challenges Methodological challenges Suggestions for further research Work in progress

A typology of movement outcomes

Internal External

Political Power relations withina movement or SMO

Substantial (policy),procedural, structural

Cultural Value change within amovement or SMO

Public opinion andattitudes

Biographical Life-course patterns ofmovement participants

Aggregate-level life-course patterns

What do we know about political outcomes?

First wave• Disruption• Organization

Second wave• Contextual factors• Mechanisms

What do we know about cultural outcomes?

Not much (at least me…)

What do we know about biographical outcomes (New-Left activists)?

Political life• Continued to espouse leftist political attitudes• Continued to define themselves as liberal or radical• Remained active in contemporary movements or other forms of

political activity

Personal life• Concentrated in teaching or other helping professions• Lower incomes• More likely to have divorced, married later, or remained single• More likely to have experienced an episodic or nontraditional work

history

The problem of identifying social movement outcomes (Tilly)

MOVEMENT

CLAIMS

A C

BEFFECTS OF EFFECTS OF

MOVEMENT OUTSIDE

ACTIONS EVENTS AND D

ACTIONS

A six-step approach to social movement outcomes (Tilly)

• To formulate clear theories of the causal process by which social movements produce their effects

• To limit the investigation to the effects made plausible by those theories

• To work upstream by identifying instances of the effects, then seeing whether the hypothesized causal chain was actually operating

• To work downstream by identifying instances of the causal chain in operation, then seeing whether and how its hypothesized effects occurred

• To work midstream by examining whether the internal links of the causal chain operated as the theory requires

• To rule out, to the extent possible, competing explanations of the effects

Methodological problems

Causal attribution Time reference and effect stability Goal adaptation Interrelated effects Unintended and perverse effects

Additional problems for the study of biographical outcomes

Timing and cause-effect nexus• Before/after data• Focus on specific cycle of contention• Time span separating activism from its consequences• Repeated mesures

Sampling and generalization• Sample representativeness• Control group• Number of subjects• Geographical area

Some suggestions for further research

Conditional effects Stages of the policy process Processes and mechanisms Comparative perspective Cultural effects Unintended consequences

Work in progress

Policy impact of protest on two issues• Asylum• Unemployment

Differential effect of protest• Across issues• Across stages of policy process

Variables

Dependent variables• Parliamentary interventions (first stage)• Acceptance of interventions (second stage)

Independent variables• Protest (political claims)• Alliances• Public opinion• Real-world indicators (grievances)

Data and methods

Data• Claim-making (MERCI and UNEMPOL projects)• Issue attention (comparative agenda project)• Public opinion polls• Statistical data

Methods• Time-series analysis• Event history analysis

Tentative findings: asylum

Tentative findings: unemployment