THEME – 5 Climate change, agro-biodiversity and food security in West Africa

Climate change, agro-biodiversity and food security in West Africa

Presentation at the workshop on applied Mathematics and Omics Technologies for Discovering Biodiversity and Genetic resources for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation to Sustain Agriculture in

Drylands. Rabat-Morocco, 24-27 June 2014

Dr Aichatou Assoumane, Lecturer and Researcher at University Abdou

Moumouni of Niamey, Niger. Associate researcher at the Natural Resources

Management Program of CORAF/WECARD

Presentation Outline

Environmental challenges: Review of current regional trends

Impacts of climate change on biodiversity in West Africa

Climate change in West Africa: Scenarios for the future

Agricultural Research in the Region

Environmental challenges: Review of current regional trends

Sub-Saharan Africa is faced with such bio-physical constraints as droughts, soil acidity, nutrient depleted and degraded agricultural and pastoral lands, etc., which impinge on agricultural development .

Class N (kg/ha/yr) P2O5

(kg/ha/yr)

K2O

(kg/ha/yr)

Low <10 <4 <10

Moderate 10-20 4-7 10-20

High 21-40 8-15 21-40

Classes of nutrient loss (Source: Stoorvogel and Smaling, 1990)

Environmental challenges: Review of current regional trends ( con’td)

In West Africa today, rainfall generally decreases northward from the coast. In the Sahelian belt, extending from Senegal through Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and northern Nigeria, rainfall ranges from 700 to 1,100 millimeters, while Mauritania and most parts of Mali and Niger are largely desert

Annual average precipitation in West Africa (millimeters per year)

Source: WorldClim version 1.4 (Hijmans et al. 2005)

As rainfall decreases, from south to north, temperature increases northward from the southern coast. Maximum temperatures range from 30°–33°C along the coast to 36°–39°C in the Sahel and 42°–45°C on the fringe of the desert.

Environmental challenges: Review of current regional trends ( con’td)

Annual maximum temperature in West Africa (°C)

Source: WorldClim version 1.4 (Hijmans et al. 2005)

• The threats of climate change could prove to be most challenging to an already over-stretched sub-regional production system.

• 10 – 15% of species likely to be lost in an Africa that is 2 ⁰C warmer

• Yields from rainfed agriculture fall by as much as 20% by 2020

• Many pests and diseases of crops , animals and humans could change

Impacts of climate change on biodiversity in West Africa

• The threats of climate change could prove to be most challenging to an already over-stretched sub-regional production system.

• Productivity in fisheries is likely to be reduced due to habitat displacement towards higher latitudes

• Niger river stream flow fell by 30%

• Senegal and The Gambia by 60%

Impacts of climate change on biodiversity in West Africa ( con’td)

http://www.sierra-leone.org/Freetown/content/index_3.html

•GCMs (General Circulation Models) model the physics and chemistry of the atmosphere and its interactions with oceans and the land surface. Results from 2 GCMs that are publicly available: CSIRO Mark 3 and MIROC 3.2.

• CSIRO Mark 3 (a climate model developed at the Australia Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization). • MIROC 3.2. (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, developed at the University of Tokyo Center for Climate System Research).

• The A1B scenarios from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is used to simulate greenhouse gas emissions pathway. A1B is a greenhouse gas emissions scenario that assumes fast economic growth, a population that peaks midcentury, and the development of new and efficient technologies, along with a balanced use of energy sources.


Changes in average annual precipitation 2000 –2050 (calculations based on

Jones, Thornton and Heinke, 2009): The rainfall scenarios are generally dissimilar

CSIRO, A1B (mm) MIROC, A1B (mm)

There is similarity in the predictions for reduction in rainfall in the southern parts of Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Nigeria, but the CSIRO A1B scenario has a greater reduction in precipitation than the MIROC A1B scenario. The CSIRO A1B scenario predicts no change to as much as 100 millimeters per year decline in the Sahelian region and an increase in precipitation along the coast of Sierra Leone and most parts of Liberia, while the MIROC A1B scenario predicts an increase in precipitation in the Sahelian region (50–100 to 100–200 millimeters per year) and severe drought in Liberia (a decline of 200–400 millimeters per year).

Climate change in West Africa: Scenarios for the future (con’td)


Changes in yields 2010-2050. DSSAT crop model: Rice

Rainfed rice yields are predicted to decrease by 5–25 percent in most parts of Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Togo based on both the CSIRO and the MIROC models and in Nigeria as well based on the CSIRO model. Both models also have an increase in rice yield in the Sahelian belt, while baseline area will be lost in Mali and Niger.

CSIRO A1B MIROC A1B


Changes in yields 2010-2050. DSSAT crop model: maize

A general decrease in maize yields of 5–25 percent of baseline in most parts of the countries along the southern coast of West Africa and a yield gain of 5–25 percent in the Sahel. Both models also have a loss in baseline area in the northern most parts of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Nigeria.

CSIRO A1B MIROC A1B

Climate change in West Afica: Scenarios for the future (con’td)

Changes in yields 2010-2050. from DSSAT crop model: sorghum (rainfed)

Based on both the CSIRO and the MIROC climate outcomes in the A1B scenario, sorghum yields will decline by 5–25 percent across West Africa, with greater reductions in parts of Togo, Benin, and adjacent areas of Ghana and Nigeria Both climate scenarios also have a loss in baseline area in the Sudan savanna from Senegal to Nigeria. However, the MIROC scenario has a greater reduction than the CSIRO scenario.

CSIRO A1B MIROC A1B

In general, both climate models (CSIRO and MIROC) indicate declining rains along the coasts of Nigeria, Togo, Benin, Ghana, and Côte d’Ivoire, while there is either increased rainfall (MIROC) or slight dryness or wetness in the Sahel (CSIRO). This outcome seems to be related to the relatively higher prevalence of yield gain for both rice and maize in the Sahel compared to the more pronounced yield loss in the coastal areas.


The increase in wetness in the Sahel may suggest an unfavorable condition for drought-tolerant and -adapted sorghum, with yield loss under increasingly wet conditions. This scenario suggests that farmers could face various predicaments and they need to adapt to conditions they are not used to.


AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH

Promote sub-regional cooperation

Create synergies & reduce duplications

Solve common agricultural development problems

through research

Mobilize resources

CORAF/WECARD - Brief overview

Vision: ..... Sustainable reduction of poverty and food

insecurity in West and Central Africa

380 million inhabitants

Created in 1987

NARS of 22 countries

• • Livestock, Fisheries and Aquaculture • Staple Crops • Non-Staple Crops • Natural Resources Management • Biotechnology and Biosafety • Policy, Markets and Trade • Capacity Strengthening • Knowledge Management

Research Programs have been identified on the basis of sub-sectors that can contribute significantly to increase the GDP of countries

Each program has a portfolio of projects implemented by NARS at national level Management is centralized at the Executive Secretariat (Dakar,Senegal)

CORAF/WECARD - Brief overview

NRM Research themes

Sustainable management of land and water and adaptation to climate change

Sustainable intensification and diversification of agriculture

Biodiversity (Animal, plants, fisheries) conservation and improvement

Socioeconomics and policy research on natural resource management

With Climate Change as a key and cross cutting issue in natural resources management.

Sub themes for R&D related to biodiversity management

• Knowledge and conservation of genetic resources • Use and improvement of genetic resources • Rehabilitation of the productivity of agricultural and forestry ecosystems • Impact and adaptation of biodiversity to climate change and assessment of environmental services

Biodiversity conservation and improvement (Animal, plants, fisheries)

Sub themes for R&D related to soil and water management

• Adoption of natural resource management technologies at different scales • Impacts of natural resource management technologies at different scales • Financial and economic analysis of proposed natural resources management technologies • Economic and social impacts of policies and programmes on resource management at different levels • Gender and natural resources management

Socioeconomics and policy research on natural resource management

Some thoughts for the way forward

• Combination of large and small scale- with a focus on environmental sustainability

• Appropriate research within the framework of IAR4D (already ongoing)

• Improve markets

• Enabling policy environment

THANK YOU

THEME – 5 Climate change, agro-biodiversity and food security in West Africa

Science

Transcript of THEME – 5 Climate change, agro-biodiversity and food security in West Africa