Thematic Presentation Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Floods€¦ · Compilation of...
Transcript of Thematic Presentation Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Floods€¦ · Compilation of...
Thematic Presentation
Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Floods
Marco Borga
University of Padova
Italy
Climate Change Impacts
on Extreme Floods
Focus on:
�flash floods
�urban floods
�coastal floods
�emerging technology and costs of natural hazards
�national projects
�Social impacts/Economics
�Embankments
�Uncertainty
�Stakeholders/case studies
�Communication issues/User engagement
�Focus o
n im
pro
ved thunders
torm
modelling a
nd
observ
ation techniques h
ave b
een d
eveloped
�New real tim
e lightn
ing p
roduct fo
r th
e
Mediterranean o
nline (http://flashpro
ject.org
)
�New thunders
torm
“nowcasting”pro
duct online for
1-3
hour fo
recasts o
f heavy rainfa
ll
�New thunders
torm
“fo
recasting”pro
duct online for
6-7
2 h
our fo
recasts o
f heavy rainfa
ll
�New synoptic indicato
rs o
f flash floods
�New e
ducational outreach w
ebsite o
n flash floods
and thunders
torm
s
6 partners from 5 European countries, EC contribution of 1.2 M
€,
ends August 2010
FLASH:
Thunderstorms and Flash Floods
Scientific outputs
C-Extreme floods
�Focus o
n d
evelopm
ent of a E
uro
pean
observ
ational strate
gy o
n flash floods, coupling:
weath
er ra
dar observ
ations, post-flood surv
eys,
hydro
logical m
odelling.
�Hydro
-mete
oro
logical analysis o
f flash flood
regim
es / e
xtrem
e e
vents
: space-tim
e scale a
nd
resolution, inte
ractions b
etw
een
hydro
logy/g
eom
orp
hology/h
ydra
ulics
�Developm
ent of hydro
-mete
oro
logical m
odels for
pre
cipitation n
ow-c
asting a
nd flash flood
guidance/fore
casting/w
arn
ing
14 partners from Europe, EC contribution of 2.35 M€, end May 2010
–International partners: China, USA, Africa
HYDRATE:
Hydro-meteorological data resources
and technologies for effective flash flood
forecasting
Scientific outputs
C-Extreme floods
�Focus o
n im
pro
vem
ent o
n anticipation
(rainfa
ll fore
cast), pre
pare
dness a
nd
opera
tional risk m
anagem
ent fo
r Flash
Flood a
nd D
ebris F
low g
enera
ting e
vents
, th
us reducing casualties a
nd d
am
ages to
the e
nvironm
ent.
�Meth
ods a
nd tools to b
e u
sed b
y
em
erg
ency a
gencies a
nd u
tility
com
panies
responsible for th
e m
anagem
ent of FF/D
F
risks a
nd a
ssociate
d e
ffects
�Develop p
roto
type teste
d o
n six
selecte
d flash flood/d
ebris flow p
rone
are
as (Alpine a
nd M
editerranean
catchm
ents)
17 partners from Europe, EC contribution of 3.3 M€, end February 2012
–International partners: South Africa
IMPRINTS:
Preparedness and risk management for
flash floods and debris flow events
Practitioner's Tool
(Beta version)
Scientific outputs
C-Extreme floods
IMPRINTS:
Preparedness and risk management for
flash floods and debris flow events
Scientific outputs
C-Extreme floods
Fla
sh F
loo
ds
an
d D
eb
ris
Flo
ws
Ris
k
Ma
na
ge
me
nt.
Pa
rt 1
-Li
vin
g w
ith
th
e
Ris
k
htt
p:/
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w.c
rah
i.u
pc.
ed
u/
SMARTEST:
Smart resilient technology, system and tools
Scientific outputs
C-Extreme floods
�Focus o
n cost-effective solutions for th
e flood
resilient syste
ms in the u
rban e
nvironm
ent.
�Developm
ent of m
odel of FRe syste
ms
�A d
am
age m
odel fo
r th
e sim
ulation o
f FRe
construction, te
chnology a
nd syste
m; A d
ecision
support tool fo
r pro
fessional sta
keholders
in
flood resilience technology
�A g
uideline for th
e im
plem
enta
tion o
f flood
resilience construction, te
chnology a
nd syste
m
by sta
keholders
�W
ork
shops a
t local level in case stu
dy a
reas to
define requirem
ents for FRe syste
ms; National
work
shops for local conta
ct and language
dissem
ination
�Policy b
rief on e
nvironm
enta
l im
pact of th
e
researc
h
Photo: Floodplan
�Focus o
n d
iffe
rences in u
rban flooding in
Asia a
nd E
uro
pe
�Meth
odology for assessm
ent of im
pacts
and p
ossible responses b
y e
nvisaging
diffe
rent scenarios o
f re
levant drivers
(clim
ate
change, socio-e
conom
ic tre
nds,
land u
se/p
lanning e
tc.)
�Quantification o
f cost-effectiveness o
f
resilience m
easure
s a
nd inte
gra
tive a
nd
adapta
ble flood m
anagem
ent plans for
these scenarios
�Advances in m
odelling d
rivers
and
pre
ssure
s, flood fore
casting, flood risk
analysis a
nd m
apping, flood im
pact
assessm
ent and flood risk m
anagem
ent
CORFU:
Collaborative research on flood resilience
in urban areas
Scientific outputs
C-Extreme floods
�Focus o
n cost-effective m
eans for flood risk
managem
ent in u
rban a
reas.
�Knowledge o
n v
ulnera
bility critical infrastructu
re a
nd
impro
ving flood d
efe
nces: getting the b
alance in h
olistic
flood risk m
anagem
ent strate
gies
�Biote
chnical m
eth
ods for im
pro
ving flood d
efe
nces
�Concepts for m
ultifunctional flood d
efe
nces a
nd shelters
FLOODPROBE:
Technologies for improved safety of the built
environment in relation to flood events
Scientific outputs
C-Extreme floods
14 partners from Europe, EC contribution of 3.5 M€,
end October 2013
�Consolidate
d m
eth
odologies for risk
assessm
ent with a
nalysis o
f drivers
and
impacts o
f changing flood risk a
nd
uncertainties in coasta
l pro
cess.
�Risk b
ased d
esign o
f innovative o
r
optim
ised d
efe
nce structu
res: w
ave e
nerg
y
converters
, re
efs, floating b
reakwate
rs,
dikes, nourishm
ent.
�Mainte
nance a
nd construction o
f habitat
for m
itigation p
urp
oses: biological re
efs,
dunes, saltm
ars
hes, m
anaged realignm
ent.
�Coasta
l risk g
overn
ance: insura
nce
schem
es, land u
se p
lanning, private
secto
r
strate
gies, post crisis m
anagem
ent,
knowledge m
obilization a
nd crisis p
lanning
pro
tocols.
THESEUS:
Innovative coastal technologies
for safer European coasts in a changing climate
Scientific outputs
C-Extreme floods
UrbanFlood
UrbanFlood
ICT for Environmental Services and Climate Change Adaptation Programme
6 Partners; €4.1M programme of work; Grant agreement No. 248767
December 2009 � ���
November 2012
�Focus o
n d
eveloping innovative technologies to h
elp
em
erg
ency m
anagem
ent on flood conditions (as w
ell a
s
support for ro
utine a
sset m
anagem
ent)
�Developing a
work
ing flood risk e
arly w
arn
ing syste
m that
uses sensor te
chnology e
mbedded in flood e
mbankm
ents
(and flood d
efe
nces), linked v
ia Inte
rnet te
chnology w
ith
online u
ser inte
rfaces a
nd a
mutli-to
uch table syste
m for
em
erg
ency serv
ices a
ccess a
nd control.
�Application to 3
pilot sites in A
mste
rdam
, London a
nd S
t Pete
rsburg
Scientific outputs
C-Extreme floods
�Com
pilation o
f sta
te-o
f-th
e-a
rt m
eth
ods
for cost assessm
ent of natu
ral hazard
s:
dro
ughts
, floods, sto
rms a
nd coasta
l
hazard
s, and a
lpine h
azard
s;
�Analysis a
nd a
ssessm
ent of th
ese m
eth
ods
in o
rder to
identify
best pra
ctice m
eth
ods
and identify
theore
tical and p
ractical
knowledge g
aps;
�Synth
esis o
f th
e resulting k
nowledge into
recom
mendations for assessm
ents o
f th
e
costs o
f natu
ral hazard
s a
nd identify
further
researc
h n
eeds.
ConHaz:
Costs of natural hazardsScientific outputs
C-Extreme floods
FRMRCand EQUIP:
National (UK) projects
�UK n
ational academ
ic collabora
tive p
roje
cts
�flood risk a
nd u
ncertainty
in clim
ate
im
pact assessm
ent
�Achievem
ents
�Researc
h a
ddre
sses “users
”pro
blem
s
�Policy-relevant re
searc
h
�FRMRC1 researc
h n
ow in u
se in U
K for inspection o
f flood d
efe
nce
infrastructu
re
�Aspiration to contribute
to IPCC A
R5
Scientific outputs
C-Extreme floods
FLASH FLOODS:
research perspectives
�Science inte
gra
tion:
�Monitoring/o
bserv
ations: to
tal lightn
ing d
ata
in real-tim
e m
onitoring o
f inte
nse sto
rms;
rainfa
ll a
t flash flood scales; pro
gra
ms for post-flood surv
ey;
�Modelling: ra
infa
ll d
ata
assim
ilation for pre
cipitation fore
casting in N
WP; flash flood
pre
diction/fore
casting in u
ngauged b
asins; Pro
babilistic fore
casts-U
ncertainty
assessm
ent.
�Opera
tional/Policy inte
gra
tion -
Inte
raction:
�In
cre
ase o
f anticipation a
s a
key p
oint fo
r pre
pare
dness: Uncertainty
must be e
stim
ate
d a
nd
pro
vided to the e
nd-u
ser in a
pro
per way; Developm
ent of Tools a
nd S
oftware
adapte
d to
Pra
ctitioner’s n
eeds for th
e real-tim
e risk m
anagem
ent;
�Need to facilitate
scientist –
end u
ser/sta
keholder inte
ractions.
�Susta
inability:
�Im
pro
ve a
nalysis o
f influence o
f environm
enta
l changes (LU/C
C)on flash flood regim
es;
�Im
pro
ve a
nalysis o
f social changes o
n flash flood risks.
Perspectives
C-Extreme floods
�Science inte
gra
tion: d
evelopm
ent of dra
ft h
arm
onised sta
ndard
s (Euro
pean),
developm
ent of syste
m a
ppro
aches to the u
se o
f te
chnology a
nd a
ppro
priate
tools to
quantify
application a
nd p
erform
ance. S
pecific focus o
n:
�th
e v
ulnera
bility o
f critical infrastructu
re a
nd h
igh-d
ensity v
alue a
ssets,
�th
e reliability o
f urb
an flood d
efe
nces a
nd
�construction technologies a
nd concepts for flood-p
roofing b
uildings a
nd infrastructu
re
netw
ork
s.
�In
tera
ction: Enhancing the d
ialogue b
etw
een e
ngineers
and scientists, industry
(manufa
ctu
rers
and b
uilders
), local and n
ational govern
ment and a
gencies a
nd sta
ndard
s
bodies. Cata
loguing a
nd sharing b
est pra
ctice o
n m
itigation a
nd resilience m
easure
s.
�Significant incre
ase in the cost-effectiveness (i.e. perform
ance) of investm
ents in n
ewly
developed a
nd e
xisting flood p
rote
ction a
nd flood resilience m
easure
s incre
asing the
flood-resilience o
f th
e u
rban syste
m.
�Susta
inability: Developm
ent of a flood resilience a
ppro
ach in k
ey sta
keholders
.
URBAN FLOODS:
research perspectives
Perspectives
C-Extreme floods
�In
tegra
tion. Inte
gra
tion o
f scientific
outcom
es into
design g
uidelines a
nd
software
tool fo
r defe
nce p
lanning.
�In
tera
ction. D
ialogue b
etw
een
engineers
and scientists
, land u
se
planners
, politicians a
nd the a
ffecte
d
public to a
chieve a
n e
ffective coasta
l
planning strate
gy.
�Susta
inability. D
evelopm
ent of
sta
ndard
inte
gra
ted p
ractices for th
e
selection o
f susta
inable m
itigation
measure
s.
�
COASTAL FLOODS:
Research perspectives
Perspectives
C-Extreme floods
EMERGENING TECHNOLOGY:
EMERGENING TECHNOLOGY:
Research perspectives
Research perspectives
�Sensor data
uncertainty
and resolution in relation to d
iffe
rent
end u
ser needs
�Verify
ing/e
nsuring syste
m reliability a
nd security
, particularly
during e
xtrem
e e
vents
�Im
plem
enta
tion a
t larg
er (c
atchm
ent) scale o
ffers
added
pote
ntial fo
r risk / e
vent m
anagem
ent but we then n
eed to
addre
ss the w
ider challenges o
f:
�In
tegra
ted o
pera
tion a
nd m
ainte
nance a
cro
ss n
um
ero
us
defe
nce structu
re o
wners
, flood risk m
anagem
ent and
em
erg
ency serv
ice o
rganisations
�Managem
ent and p
rocessing o
f very
larg
e d
ata
volum
es in
real tim
e
�Sta
ndard
s for design, insta
llation a
nd o
pera
tion
Perspectives
C-Extreme floods
�Com
pile, analyse a
nd a
ssess e
xisting
knowledge for costing o
f diffe
rent
natu
ral hazard
types
�Recom
mendations o
n m
eth
ods,
knowledge tra
nsfe
r
�Netw
ork
ing w
ithin a
nd b
etw
een
natu
ral hazard
com
munities (re
searc
h,
pra
ctitioners
, policym
akers
)
COSTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS:
research perspectives
Perspectives
C-Extreme floods
FRMRC and EQUIP:
research perspectives
�Quantify
ing the scenarios a
nd u
ncertainty
for short-term
pre
cipitation e
xtrem
es a
nd flood im
pacts
�Contribution o
f land u
se a
nd m
anagem
ent to
flood risk m
anagem
ent
�The e
ffects o
f ageing o
f flood d
efe
nce infrastructu
re
on failure
pro
bability
�Quantify
ing u
ncertainty
in a
ssessm
ents o
f flood risk
and b
etter com
munication o
f uncertainty
Perspectives
C-Extreme floods