THE ZIMBABWE ECONOMYmefmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Zim-Economy-by-John... · 2018. 12. 8. ·...
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THE ZIMBABWE ECONOMY Business Environment October 2015
Transcript of THE ZIMBABWE ECONOMYmefmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Zim-Economy-by-John... · 2018. 12. 8. ·...
THE ZIMBABWE ECONOMY
Business Environment
October 2015
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX Re-based: December 2012 = 100
IND
EX
: D
ec 2
012=
100
ALL ITEMS INDEX
Robertson Economic Information Services
2012
100,319 100,33 100,48
100,73 2014
2013 100,74
100,43 100,426
99,625 99,533
99,19 99,12
2015
99,09
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX Re-based: December 2012 = 100
IND
EX
: D
ec 2
012=
100
ALL ITEMS INDEX
Robertson Economic Information Services
2012
100,319 100,33 100,48
100,73 2014
2013 100,74
100,43 100,426
99,625 99,533
99,19 99,12
2015
99,09
98,22
100,89
98,03
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX Re-based: December 2012 = 100
IND
EX
: D
ec 2
012=
100
ALL ITEMS INDEX
Robertson Economic Information Services
2012
100,319 100,33 100,48
100,73 2014
2013 100,74
100,43 100,426
99,625 99,533
99,19 99,12
2015
99,09
98,22
100,89
98,03 97,895 97,95
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX Re-based: December 2012 = 100
IND
EX
: D
ec 2
012=
100
ALL ITEMS INDEX
Robertson Economic Information Services
2012
100,319 100,33 100,48
100,73 2014
2013 100,74
100,43 100,426
99,625 99,533
99,19 99,12
2015
99,09
98,22
100,89
98,03 97,895 97,95
97,65
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX Re-based: December 2012 = 100
IND
EX
: D
ec 2
012=
100
ALL ITEMS INDEX
Robertson Economic Information Services
2012
100,319 100,33 100,48
100,73
2013 100,74
100,43 100,426
99,625 99,533
99,19 99,12
2015
99,09
98,22
100,89
98,03 97,895 97,95
97,65
97,30
2014
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX Re-based: December 2012 = 100
IND
EX
: D
ec
20
12
=1
00
ALL ITEMS INDEX
Robertson Economic Information Services
2012
2013 -0,47
2014
-0,93
-0,26 -0,19 -0,08 0,31
0,15
0,09 0,00
-0,79 -0,78
-1,28
2015
-1,4 -1,2
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX Re-based: December 2012 = 100
IND
EX
: D
ec
20
12
=1
00
ALL ITEMS INDEX
Robertson Economic Information Services
2012
2013 -0,47
2014
-0,93
-0,26
-0,19 -0,08 0,31 0,15
0,09 0,00
-0,79 -0,78
-1,28
2015
-1,4 -1,2 -2,6
-2,7
-2,8
-2,77
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX Re-based: December 2012 = 100
IND
EX
: D
ec
20
12
=1
00
ALL ITEMS INDEX
Robertson Economic Information Services
2012
2013 -0,47
2014
-0,93
-0,26
-0,19 -0,08 0,31 0,15
0,09 0,00
-0,79 -0,78
-1,28
2015
-1,4 -1,2 -2,6
-2,7
-2,8
-2,77
-2,768
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX Re-based: December 2012 = 100
IND
EX
: D
ec
20
12
=1
00
ALL ITEMS INDEX
Robertson Economic Information Services
2012
2013
2014
-1,28
2015
-1,4 -1,2 -2,6
-2,7
-2,8
-2,77
-2,76
-3,11
DRINK & TOBACCO
RENT, FUEL, ELEC., WATER
CLOTHING & F’WEAR
ALL ITEMS INDEX
FURNITURE, H’HOLD
FOOD & BEVERAGES
MEAT
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX Re-based: December 2012 = 100
December 2012 to July 2015
IND
EX
: D
ec 2
012=
100
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015
DRINK & TOBACCO
RENT, FUEL, ELEC., WATER
CLOTHING & F’WEAR
ALL ITEMS INDEX
FURNITURE, H’HOLD
FOOD & BEVERAGES
MEAT
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX Re-based: December 2012 = 100
December 2012 to August 2015
IND
EX
: D
ec 2
012=
100
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015
FISH, OILS & FATS
DAIRY
BREAD & CEREALS
TEA, COFFEE & COCOA
MEAT
SOFT DRINKS
CONFECTIONERY
VEGETABLES
FRUIT
FOOD PRICE INDEX Base: December 2012 = 100
December 2012 to August 2015
IND
EX
: D
ec 2
012=
100
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015
FISH, OILS & FATS
DAIRY
BREAD & CEREALS
TEA, COFFEE & COCOA
MEAT
SOFT DRINKS
CONFECTIONERY
VEGETABLES
FRUIT
FOOD PRICE INDEX Base: December 2012 = 100
December 2012 to September 2015
IND
EX
: D
ec 2
012=
100
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015
MEAT INDEX Re-based: December 2012 = 100
IND
EX
: D
ec
20
12
=1
00
MEAT INDEX
Robertson Economic Information Services
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015
.
EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS
Since July 11 2012
US DOLLAR
YUAN
EX
CH
AN
GE
RA
TE
IN
DE
X:
Ju
ly 1
1 =
10
0
2012 | 2013
Robertson Economic Information Services
RAND
YEN
| 2014 | 2015
Sep 30
2015
POUND
EURO
EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS
Since Jan 1 2015
US
DOLLAR
POUND
EX
CH
AN
GE
RA
TE
IN
DE
X:
JA
N 1
= 1
00
Robertson Economic Information Services
Sep 30
2015
RAND
EURO
YUAN
YEN
| JAN | FEB | MAR | APR | MAY | JUN | JUL | AUG | SEP |
2015
RA
ND
PE
R U
.S. D
OL
LA
R
Robertson Economic Information Services
RAND PER U.S. DOLLAR April 1 2009 to October 23 2015
2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015
COMMODITY PRICES INDEX: June 2005 = 100
Ind
ex:
Ju
ne 2
005 =
100
Petroleum Metals
Food
Industrial Inputs
Agricultural Raw Materials
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
2012 Robertson Economic Information Services
GOLD PRICE: US$ PER OUNCE
Oct 26
| J | F | M | A | M | J | J | A | S | O | N | D | J | F | M | A | M | J | J | A | S | O | N | D | J | F | M | A | M | J | J | A | S | O | N | D | J | F | M | A | M | J | J | A | S | O
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015
2012
PLATINUM PRICE:
US$ PER OUNCE
Robertson Economic Information Services
| J | F | M | A | M | J | J | A | S | O | N | D | J | F | M | A | M | J | J | A | S | O | N | D | J | F | M | A | M | J | J | A | S | O | N | D | J | F | M | A | M | J | J | A | S | O
Oct 26
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015
BRENT OIL PRICE: January 2001 to September 2015
Month-End Prices
US
$ p
er
Ou
nce
Robertson Economic Information Services
| 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
OIL & GOLD PRICE INDEX October 1984 = 100
Pri
ce I
nd
ex:
Sep
tem
ber
1984 =
100
FRACTIONS OF AN OUNCE OF
GOLD PER BARREL OF OIL G
OL
D P
RIC
E M
EA
SU
RE
D I
N O
IL
FRACTIONS OF AN OUNCE OF
GOLD PER BARREL OF OIL G
OL
D P
RIC
E M
EA
SU
RE
D I
N O
IL
COLLAPSE
OF SOVIET
UNION
FRACTIONS OF AN OUNCE OF
GOLD PER BARREL OF OIL G
OL
D P
RIC
E M
EA
SU
RE
D I
N O
IL
COLLAPSE
OF SOVIET
UNION
WESTERN
WORLD
BANKING
CRISIS
FRACTIONS OF AN OUNCE OF
GOLD PER BARREL OF OIL G
OL
D P
RIC
E M
EA
SU
RE
D I
N O
IL
COLLAPSE
OF SOVIET
UNION
WESTERN
WORLD
BANKING
CRISIS WHAT
NEXT?
Commodity Price Changes
COMMODITY PRICES INDEX: June 2005 = 100
Ind
ex:
Ju
ne 2
005 =
100
Petroleum Metals
Food
Industrial Inputs
Agricultural Raw Materials
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
RISING PRICES – WEAKENING DOLLAR
COMMODITY PRICES INDEX: June 2005 = 100
Ind
ex:
Ju
ne 2
005 =
100
Petroleum Metals
Food
Industrial Inputs
Agricultural Raw Materials
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
RISING PRICES – WEAKENING DOLLAR
DOLLARISATION ------------------------------------->
COMMODITY PRICES INDEX: June 2005 = 100
Ind
ex:
Ju
ne 2
005 =
100
Petroleum Metals
Food
Industrial Inputs
Agricultural Raw Materials
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
FALLING PRICES – STRENGTHENING DOLLAR
DOLLARISATION ------------------------------------->
COMMODITY PRICES INDEX: June 2005 = 100
Ind
ex:
Ju
ne 2
005 =
100
Petroleum Metals
Food
Industrial Inputs
Agricultural Raw Materials
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
FALLING PRICES – STRENGTHENING DOLLAR
DOLLARISATION -------------------------------------->
COMMODITY PRICES INDEX: June 2005 = 100
Ind
ex:
Ju
ne 2
005 =
100
Metals
Food
Industrial Inputs
Agricultural Raw Materials
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
FALLING PRICES – STRENGTHENING DOLLAR
DOLLARISATION -------------------------------------->
Petroleum
DOLLARISATION -------------------------------------------
------->
WAGE COMPARISONS Cost Drivers Study
TRADE FIGURES 2011 to 2014
IMP
OR
TS
EX
PO
RT
S
TRADE FIGURES 2011 to 2014
IMP
OR
TS
EX
PO
RT
S
MINING
63%
TRADE FIGURES 2011 to 2014
IMP
OR
TS
EX
PO
RT
S
GOLD +
PLATINUM
45%
TRADE FIGURES 2011 to 2014
IMP
OR
TS
EX
PO
RT
S
TOBACCO
28%
TOBACCO Total Sales: Cumulative Sales Revenue
DAY:
US
$
2012
2015
2011
Robertson Economic Information Services
2013 $605,2m
2014
$679,8 million
$571,7m
MANUFACTURING All Groups Annual Indices
Robertson Economic Information Services
- 70%
Estimate
MANUFACTURING:
EXPORT REVENUES Total, 2000 to 2010, Estimates to 2013
Robertson Economic Information Services
Estimates
MANUFACTURING All Groups Annual Indices
Robertson Economic Information Services
- 70%
Estimate
ZIMBABWE’S FOOD IMPORTS
Percentages of Total: 2000 to 2015 Est.
Forecasts
AGRICULTURE
Maize Production
Robertson Economic Information Services Forecast
AGRICULTURE
Wheat Production
Robertson Economic Information Services
Load Shedding Status
•Minimal
•Light
•Moderate
•Heavy
•Severe
Power Generation Statistics
Generating Station
Energy
(Megawatts)
Hwange 561 MW
Kariba 475 MW
Harare 30 MW
Munyati 35 MW
Bulawayo 20 MW
Imports 0 MW
Total 1121 MW
ZESA – Load-Shedding and Power Generation Status, September 22 2015
www.zesa.co.zw
RE
SE
RV
OIR
LE
VE
L
2014 – 2015 up to July 19
KARIBA RESERVOIR Comparison of Daily Levels 2009 to 2015
2014 – 2015 up to July 19
KARIBA RESERVOIR Comparison of Daily Levels 2009 to 2015
RE
SE
RV
OIR
LE
VE
L
2014 – 2015 up to Sept 20
ZAMBEZI RIVER DAILY FLOW Victoria Falls Big Tree Station
1977 - 1978
2014 - 2015
1995 - 1996
RIV
ER
FL
OW
– M
3 p
er
SE
CO
ND
RIV
ER
FL
OW
– M
3 p
er
SE
CO
ND
ZAMBEZI RIVER DAILY FLOW
Chavuma Mission Station
March 15 2015
Normal temperature and wind direction in
the Tropical Pacific
El Niño: a disruption of the ocean-
atmosphere system in the Tropical Pacific
La Niña and El Niño
El Niño strengthening
ZIMBABWE’S 110 YEAR RAINFALL RECORD
Mean Annual Figures in Millimetres
Robertson Economic Information Services
ZIMBABWE’S 110 YEAR RAINFALL RECORD
Mean Annual Figures in Millimetres
Robertson Economic Information Services
Probable
El Niño
Event
Probable
El Niño
Event
ZIMBABWE’S 110 YEAR RAINFALL RECORD
Mean Annual Figures in Millimetres
Robertson Economic Information Services
1982-83
El Niño
Event
ZIMBABWE’S 110 YEAR RAINFALL RECORD
Mean Annual Figures in Millimetres
Robertson Economic Information Services
1997-98
El Niño
Event
MANUFACTURING All Groups Annual Indices
Robertson Economic Information Services
- 70%
Estimate
MANUFACTURING All Groups Annual Indices
Robertson Economic Information Services
- 70%
FORMAL EMPLOYMENT Thousands of Employees
810 000
LOWEST
FIGURE
SINCE
1970
FORMAL EMPLOYMENT Thousands of Employees 790 000
LOWEST
FIGURE
SINCE
1968
GDP ANNUAL % CHANGE
•Estimates
LAND
REFORM
Source: CSO + Robertson Forecasts
TOTAL TAX REVENUES January to June 2015
$’m
illio
ns
TOTAL REVENUE: $1 718 000 000
TOTAL EXPENDITURE January to June 2015
$’m
illio
ns
GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTS First Six Months, 2015
MIL
LIO
NS
OF
US
DO
LL
AR
S
$355 m
EMPLOYED POPULATION
AS A % OF TOTAL POPULATION
1980 compared to 2015
EM
PL
OY
ED
PE
RC
EN
TA
GE
EMPLOYED POPULATION
AS A % OF TOTAL POPULATION
1980 compared to 2015
EM
PL
OY
ED
PE
RC
EN
TA
GE
= 10% = 37%
COST DRIVER ANALYSIS
OF THE ZIMBABWEAN
ECONOMY
ZIMBABWE
PE
RC
EN
TA
GE
MONEY SUPPLY
US$’000
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015
DEMAND DEPOSITS
SAVINGS
DEPOSITS
LONG-TERM DEPOSITS
70%
LENDING
ENCROACHES
DEEPLY INTO
DEMAND DEPOSITS
M1
M2
M3
MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH RATE M3 Percentage Change, Year-on-Year
INDIGENISATION
STATUTORY
INSTRUMENTS
PUBLISHED
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015
MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH RATE M3 Percentage Change, Year-on-Year
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015
MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH RATE M3 Percentage Change, Year-on-Year
We can no longer fund
our own development…
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015
