The Year Everything Changed for US Row Crop Farming
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Transcript of The Year Everything Changed for US Row Crop Farming
8/7/2019 The Year Everything Changed for US Row Crop Farming
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1996: The Year That Everything Changed
For US Row Crop Farming
An analysis of USDA-NASS, National Level Data comparing the pre-biotech, pre-´Freedom to Farm´ legislation era (1984-1995) and the
post-biotech era (1999-2010)
Steve Savage, Ph.D.
Author of the Applied Mythology Blog
Email: [email protected]
Higher resolution versions of graphs available on request
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Executive Summary
� In the charts and graphs that follow one can see how the last 27 years of US farmingare clearly divided into two eras with distinctly different trends: 1984-1995 and 1999-2010 with the period 1996-1998 representing a transitional period
� There were three profound changes in 1996 that altered the course of US Agriculture1. The introduction of commercial, biotech crops (Corn, Soy, Cotton) which also involved a dramatic increase in
the private investment in crop breeding, particularly for soybeans
2. The 1996 Freedom to Farm Act which was theoretically a program to end farm subsidies and restrictionsover a 7-year period (many later legislative changes have greatly altered that course)
3. Exports of many US crops were disrupted by long delays in the approval of biotech lines in major importing
regions like the EU and Japan
� For almost every crop and geography, there has been a notable change of trend for what crops are planted, how their yield changes over time, and how much the grower is paid per unit of yield
1. Of the 8 crops studied, only Corn and Soybeans have seen increased planting while Spring Wheat has lostsubstantial acreage. Several other crops (Winter Wheat, Barley and Sorghum) have lost acreage but at aslower rate than before 1996
2. The rate of yield increase has been higher in the recent era for all crops but particularly for Corn and SpringWheat; however, for several crops there was a ³lag´ soon after the introduction of biotech traits and during
the transition. Yield changes are a function of specific traits but also many other changes in agronomics,land selection and other technologies
3. For all crops, regardless of biotech status there was a substantial drop in prices from 1996 to 1999 followedby a sharply higher rate of increase over the next 12 years
� It is difficult to separate the influences of technology and private investment,government interventions in the market and foreign trade policies. All that is clear isthat in 1996, ³everything changed.´
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Planting Analysis
Crop Pre-Biotech Era(1984-1995) Post-Biotech Era(1999-2010)
Corn -0.3% +1.4%
Soybeans -0.4% Jumped ~20% then +0.2%
Spring Wheat +3.1 Dropped 20% then -1.3%
Winter Wheat Flat
Barley Declining rapidly Declining more slowly
Durum Wheat Declining Jumped then declining
Sorghum Declining rapidly Declining more slowly
Cotton Increasing Decreasing
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Planting (1 of 2)
Corn Planting Trends
y = -0.3155x + 722.97
R2
= 0.0301
y = 1.4467x - 2795.6
R2
= 0.5995
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
P l a n
t i n g I n d e x v s t o 2 7 - y e a r A v e r a g e
Soybean Planting Trends
y = -0.3668x + 819.68
R2
= 0.1056
y = 0.1949x - 281.23
R2
= 0.0206
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
P l a n
t i n g I n d e x v s t o 2 7 - y e a r A v e r a g e
Spring Wheat Planting T rends
y = 3.0697x - 6004.3
R2
= 0.648
y = -1.2296x + 2557.5
R2
= 0.5935
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
P l a n t i n g I n d e x v s t o 2 7 -
y e a r A v e r a g e
Winter Wheat Planting Trends
y = -1.7308x + 3554.1
R2
= 0.4282
y = -0.2095x + 508.94
R2
= 0.0207
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
P l a n t i n g I n d e x v s t o 2 7 -
y e a r A v e r a g e
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Planting (2 of 2)
Barley Planting T rends
y = -8.4465x + 16942
R2
= 0.8905
y = -3.0014x + 6079.6
R2
= 0.7505
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
P l a n
t i n g I n d e x v s t o 2 7 - y e a r A v e r a g e
Durum Wheat Planting T rends
y = -1.3072x + 2703.8
R2
= 0.109
y = -4.1907x + 8492.8
R2
= 0.544
4050
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
P l a n
t i n g I n d e x v s t o 2 7 - y e a r A v e r a g e
Sorghum Planting Trends
y = -6.5624x + 13177
R2
= 0.6595
y = -3.3437x + 6780.2
R2
= 0.6471
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
P l a n t i n g I n d e x v s t o 2 7 - y e a r A v e r a g e
Cotton Planting T rends
y = 3.6681x - 7201.4
R2
= 0.7248
y = -4.1742x + 8468.8
R2
= 0.6707
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
P l a n t i n g I n d e x v s t o 2 7 - y e a r A v e r a g e
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Yield Analysis
Crop Pre-Biotech Era
(1984-1995)
Post-Biotech Era
(1999-2010)
Corn +0.7% +1.8%
Soybeans +1.7% Lag 3 years then +1.7%
Spring Wheat +0.3% +2.4%
Winter Wheat +0.1% Jumped10% then +0.1%
Barley +1.5% Lag then +1.9%
Durum Wheat +1% Dropped 20% then +3.4%
Sorghum Flat Dropped 10% then +1.4%
Cotton +0.2% +2.9%
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Yields (1 of 2)
Corn Yield Trends
y = 0.7018x - 1308.4
R2
= 0.0562
y = 1.8334x - 3562.6
R2
= 0.6403
4050
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Y
i e l d I n d e x v s 2 7 - y e a r A v e r a g e
Soybean Yield Trends
y = 1.7128x - 3316.9
R2
= 0.3679
y = 1.6582x - 3215.3
R2
= 0.4941
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Y
i e l d I n d e x v s 2 7 - y e a r A v e r a g e
Spring Wheat Yield Trends
y = 0.3308x - 565.03
R2
= 0.0064
y = 2.4208x - 4744.2
R2
= 0.3755
40
50
60
70
80
90100
110
120
130
140
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Y i e l d I n d e x v s 2 7 - y e
a r A v e r a g e
Winter Wheat Yield Tre nds
y = 0.0767x - 87.092
R2
= 0.0054
y = 0.0857x - 96.139
R2
= 0.0042
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Y i e l d I n d e x v s 2 7 - y e
a r A v e r a g e
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Yields (2 of 2)
Barley Yield Trends
y = 1.5403x - 2972.9
R2
= 0.2747
y = 1.9306x - 3761.5
R2
= 0.4743
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Y
i e l d I n d e x v s 2 7 - y e a r A v e r a g e
Durum Wheat Yield Trends
y = 0.9601x - 1814.1
R2
= 0.0327
y = 3.3696x - 6650.1
R2
= 0.5411
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Y
i e l d I n d e x v s 2 7 - y e a r A v e r a g e
Sorghum Yield Trends
y = -0.0005x + 100.06
R2
= 4E-08
y = 1.4015x - 2709.7
R2
= 0.1766
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Y i e l d I n d e x v s 2 7 - y e
a r A v e r a g e
Cotton Yield Tren ds
y = 0.2404x - 387.36
R2
= 0.0117
y = 2.8857x - 5674.5
R2
= 0.6291
40
50
60
70
80
90100
110
120
130
140
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Y i e l d I n d e x v s 2 7 - y e
a r A v e r a g e
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Production Analysis
Crop Pre-Biotech Era
(1984-1995)
Post-Biotech Era
(1999-2010)
Corn +0.5% +2.8%
Soybeans +1.3% Jumped 20% then +2.1%
Spring Wheat +3.4% Dropped 20% then +1.3%
Winter Wheat -1.1% +0.3%
Barley -5.8% -2.3%
Durum Wheat -0.4% -0.3%
Sorghum -6.6% -2.2%
Cotton + 3.6% -1.3%
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Production (1 of 2)
Soybean Production Trends
y = 1.3042x - 2514.2
R2
= 0.2498
y = 2.1348x - 4160.8
R2
= 0.4458
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
P r o d u c t i o n I n d e x v s 2 7 - y e a r A v e r a g e
Corn Production Trends
y = 0.5269x - 965.53
R2
= 0.0171
y = 3.7607x - 7421.1
R2
= 0.7558
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
P r o d u c t i o n I n d e x v s 2 7 - y e a r A v e r a g e
Spring Wheat Production Trends
y = 3.3739x - 6615.8
R2
= 0.2485
y = 1.2946x - 2495
R2
= 0.1587
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
P r o d u c t i o n I n d e x v s 2 7
- y e a r A v e r a g e
Winter Wheat Production Trends
y = -1.1451x + 2382
R2
= 0.0946
y = 0.3324x - 571.98
R2
= 0.0097
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
P r o d u c t i o n I n d e x v s 2 7
- y e a r A v e r a g e
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Production (2 of 2)
Durum Wheat Production Trends
y = -0.3773x + 850.51
R2
= 0.0042
y = -0.2776x + 651.58
R
2
= 0.00320
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
P r o d u c t i o n I n d e x v s 2 7 - y e a r A v e r a g e
Barley Production Trends
y = -5.8139x + 11697
R2
= 0.5099 y = -2.3209x + 4720.5
R2
= 0.4890
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
P r o d u c t i o n I n d e x v s 2 7 - y e a r A v e r a g e
Sorghum Production T rends
y = -6.5688x + 13191
R2
= 0.4793
y = -2.1774x + 4439
R2
= 0.27670
50
100
150
200
250
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
P r o d u c t i o n I n d e x v s 2 7
- y e a r A v e r a g e
Cotton Production Trends
y = 3.5777x - 7027.9
R2
= 0.6307
y = -1.2877x + 2690.8
R2
= 0.047
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
P r o d u c t i o n I n d e x v s 2 7
- y e a r A v e r a g e
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Price Analysis
Crop Pre-Biotech Era
(1984-1995)
Post-Biotech Era
(1999-2010)
Corn +1.9% Dropped 30%, then +10.9%
Soybeans +1% Dropped 30%, then +9.9%
Spring Wheat +1.8% Dropped 20% then +9.8%
Winter Wheat +2% Dropped 40% then +9.7%
Barley +1.1% Dropped 20% then 9.4%
Durum Wheat +3.2% Dropped 50% then +10.6%
Sorghum +2.7% Dropped 40% then +11%
Cotton +2% Dropped 50% then +4%
12
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Prices (1 of 2)
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Prices (2 of 2)
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