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age

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25

The Water Resources of the Nile Basin

Chapter 2

26 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

KEY MESSAGES• The Nile Basin is characterized by high climatic

diversityandvariability,alowpercentageofrainfallreachingthemainriver,andanunevendistributionof its water resources. Potential evaporation ratesin the Nile region are high, making the basinparticularlyvulnerabletodrought.

• WhiteNileflowsonlycontributeupto15percentof the annual Nile discharge, but are fairly stablethroughout the year. The Eastern Nile regionsuppliesupto90percentofannualNileflows,butitscontributionishighlyseasonal.

• Extensive regional aquifer systems holdingsubstantialquantitiesofgroundwaterunderlietheNileregion.Someoftheaquifersholdfossilwater,but others are recharged from precipitation overthebasin,orfromirrigationareasandthebaseflowoftheNile.Groundwateristhedominantsourceofdomesticwatersupplyinruralcommunitiesacrossthebasin.

• The quality of the Nile waters has generallydeteriorated because of population growth,intensification of agriculture, and industrialdevelopment. Across the basin, environmentalsanitation is poor, resulting in bacteriologicalcontaminationandnutrientenrichmentoftheNilewaters.While thequalityof largepartsof theNilesystem – in particular in the sparsely populatedareas–remainsacceptable,localizedhighpollutionis experienced mainly around urban centres.Groundwaterinisolatedlocationsalsohasnaturallyoccurringhighlevelsofdissolvedminerals.

• The headwater regions of the Nile are subjectto widespread soil erosion. Sediment yields areparticularly high in the Eastern Nile sub-basin,whichcontributes97percentofthetotalsedimentload.MostsedimentiscapturedinreservoirsinTheSudan and Egypt, which leads to a rapid loss ofreservoirstoragecapacity.

• The finite Nile flows are now fully utilized foragricultural,domestic,industrial,andenvironmentalpurposes, while water demand continues to risesteadily due to population growth and economicdevelopment.

• Irrigated agriculture in Egypt and The Sudanrepresents the single most important consumerof the waters of the Nile, but the upper ripariansare planning investments that will use the river’srenewable discharge and present challengesconcerning the equitable appropriation of theNile water resources amongst the Nile ripariancountries.

• Recommended regional-level actions forconsiderationbytheNileripariancountriesincludethe restoration of degraded water catchmentsthat are critical for sustaining the flow of themajor Nile tributaries, restoring badly degradedlands that export large quantities of sedimentsand cause serious siltation in the Nile tributaries,and establishing a regional hydrometric andenvironmentalmonitoringsystem.

TheRiverNile,Egypt.

–17.9%

forests

–4.7%

grasslands

–10.1%

cities/built-up areas

–1.3%

water bodies1.0%

shrublands & woodlands

1.4%

bare soils

12.3%

agriculturalland

57

The Environmental Resources of

the Nile Basin

Chapter 3

58 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

KEY MESSAGES• The Nile Basin has many unique aquatic and

terrestrial ecosystems, and is home to thousandsof species of plants and animals, many of themendemictothebasin.

• The basin’s water and related environmentalresources provide a wide range of societal goodsandservices,contributingbetween40and60percent of the gross domestic product of the Nileripariancountries.

• The Nile’s system of waterways and wetlandsconstitutesanimportantflightpathformigratorybirds and also a destination for migratory birdsfrom other regions of Africa. Seventeen aquaticand wetland ecosystems within the basin havebeendesignatedasinternationalRamsarsites.

• Natural resources of the Nile Basin are underincreasingpressure fromamultiplicityofsources,mainly agriculture, livestock, invasive species,bushfires, mining, urbanization, climate change,andnaturaldisasters.

• Many protected areas (national parks and game,wildlife,andforestreserves)havebeenestablished

to conserve the basin’s unique ecosystems, withmixedconservationsuccess.

• The root causes of the rapid degradation of thebasin’s environmental resources are populationgrowth, poverty, civil insecurity, and weak policy,legal, and institutional frameworks in the Nileripariancountries.

• The Lake Victoria Basin Commission (LVBC), theIntergovernmental Authority on Development(IGAD), and the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) areexamples of a growing number of regionalframeworksestablishedinrecentyearstoaddressenvironmentaldegradationwithintheNileBasin.

• Key recommendations for regional-level actionsby the Nile riparian countries include therestorationofdegradedwatercatchmentscriticalforsustainingtheflowofthemajorNiletributaries,restoring badly degraded lands that export largequantitiesofsedimentsandcauseserioussiltationofreservoirs,andestablishingaregionalnetworkformonitoringchangesinwaterqualityandland-usewithinthebasin.

Clearingwaterhyacinth,aninvasivespeciesthathashadanadverseimpactonmanypartsoftheNileBasin,includingpartsofLakeVictoria.

Population 2010424 million

Burundi 9mEritrea 5m

Rwanda10m

Uganda34m

Sudan43m

Kenya41m

Tanzania45m DR Congo

68m

Egypt84m

Ethiopia85m

99

Opportunities and Challenges of the

Growing Nile Population

Chapter 4

100 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

KEY MESSAGES• The Nile countries have a combined population

of 437 million, 54 per cent of which (238 million)residesintheNileBasin.

• Water availability appears to be the chiefdeterminant of population distribution in thebasin. In Egypt and Sudan, population is largelyconcentrated along the course of the River Nile,while in the upstream countries it follows thepatternofrainfalldistribution.

• The population in the region is rising rapidly,presenting governments with both opportunitiesand challenges. The rising population increasesavailability of labour for economic production,and ensures a large market for food produce,manufacturedgoods,andservices.

• But the rising population also increasesdegradation of natural resources, puts pressureon economic infrastructure (transport, education,health, water, and power and telecommunicationfacilities), increases food security concerns, andleadstorural–urbanmigration,withtheattendantproblemsofrapidurbanization.

• The factors maintaining high population growthratesarenumerous,includingwidespreadpoverty,illiteracy,culturalnorms,lowaccesstoreproductivehealthservices,lackofempowerment,andcivilwar.

• Concerted efforts by the riparian governmentsat addressing high population growth rates inthe 1980s and 1990s produced sharp reductionsin fertility rates. Fertility rates have continued todeclineintheregionbutmoreslowly.

• About72percentofthebasinpopulationresidesinruralareas.Thedominanceofruralpopulationsispredictedtopersistto2030andbeyondinmostNilecountries.

• Considering that the factors that enabled a largepopulation to make a positive contribution toeconomicdevelopmentarenotwellestablishedinmostoftheNilecountries,thechallengesposedbytherisingpopulationfaroutweighitsbenefits,andthreatentopreventthesecountriesfrombecomingmiddle-incomeeconomiesby2025or2030.

• To achieve the ultimate goal of slowing the rateof population growth, the basin states need toincreasefundingforactivitiesaimedatmanagingthe population growth, and to intensify efforts atholisticruraldevelopment.

WomenandchildreninRwandaqueuetocollecttabletsduringtheMotherandChildHealthWeek,heldinApril2010.Improvingthehealthofwomenandchildrenisseenasanincentivetohavesmallerfamilies.

25,0

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DR CONGO

RWANDA

BURUNDI

UGANDA

121

Agriculture, Food Security, and Livelihoods

in the Nile Basin

Chapter 5

122 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

KEY MESSAGES• Theagriculturalsectorisofgreatimportancetothe

NileBasincountriesas it isamajorcontributortoGDP,employment,andfoodsecurity.Agricultureisalsothe largestwater-consumingsector: irrigatedagriculturealoneuses theequivalentofabout78percentofthepeakflowoftheNileatAswan.

• Closeto90percentofthelandcurrentlyusedforagricultureisunderrainfedfarmingsystems.Thesesystems are characterized by subsistence-levelproductionandlowyieldsofcropsandlivestock.

• There is about 5.6 million hectares of land underirrigation or equipped with irrigation facilities inthe Nile Basin. A large proportion – 97 per cent– of the land is located in Egypt and The Sudan,with the remaining3 percent distributedamongthe upper riparian states. Productivity and water-use efficiency is high in the irrigation schemes inEgypt, and on commercial irrigation schemes intherestofthebasin,butgenerallylowinthelargesmallholderirrigationschemesinTheSudan.

• Three countries – Egypt,Tanzania, and Uganda –producelargequantitiesoffish,butthefreshwaterfisheries resourcesof thebasinareshowingsignsofbeingoverfished.

• Thepotentialoftheagriculturalsectorislarge,butit is held back by constraints in both the naturalresource base and the policy, institutional, andeconomicenvironment.

• Theagro-processingsectorintheregion–exceptforthatinEgypt–ispoorlydeveloped.

• Production levels for food crops have been risingover the years, but food production in the Nilecountries falls short of local demands, and allcountriesarenetfoodimporters.

• Trade volumes between Nile Basin countries arelow,asnoneofthemgeneratessufficientsurplusestosupporthigh-volumetrade.Tradelinksbetweenthedownstreamcountries(EgyptandSudan)andtherestofthebasinstatesareveryweak.

• To produce sufficient food to feed the basinpopulation and generate surplus for regionaltrade, the basin countries need to concurrentlyimplement a wide range of measures targetingthe multiple constraints affecting the agriculturalsector.

• Thepresentsituationofdominanceofsmallholderrainfed subsistence farming in the upper ripariancountries is likely to persist to 2030 and beyond.To improve rural livelihoods and enhance foodsecurityintheregion,itwillbenecessary,therefore,toimprovetheproductivityofthisfarmingsystemthrough, for example, introducing water and soilconservation techniques, providing quality seeds,andencouraginguseoffertilizers.

• From the perspective of water management,interventions to increase agricultural productivityshould includeprogrammesto increaserainwaterharvesting, expand irrigated areas, improve thewater-retentionpropertiesofsoil intheupstreamcountries,andimproveproductivityandwater-useefficiencyinthedownstreamcountries.

SmallholderrainfedfieldsinUganda.

02010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

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163

Hydropower Potential and the Region’s Rising

Energy Demand

Chapter 6

164 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

KEY MESSAGES• Power/electricityisacriticalrequirementforgrowth

and economic production in the Nile countries.In particular, it is important for attracting newinvestments to the region, supporting expansionof the industrial and service sectors, creatingemploymentandimprovinglivingstandards.

• The Nile riparian countries are endowed withsubstantial energy resources that includehydropowerpotential,naturalgas,oil,geothermalenergy,coal,peat,biomass,solar,andwind.Amongthevariousenergyoptions,hydropoweristhemostattractivetotheNilecountriesbecauseofitslongeconomiclifeandlowperunitenergycosts.

• ThehydropowerpotentialintheNileBasinexceeds20 GW. Existing facilities only represent about 26per cent of potential capacity. The Nile countriesdepend on hydropower to varying degrees, withBurundi, DR Congo, Ethiopia, and Uganda reliantonitfor80percentormoreoftheirpower.

• Electricity supply in the Nile countries (with theexceptionofEgypt) is inadequate,unreliable,andexpensive.Accordingly,electricityconsumptionintheregionisamongthelowestintheworld.Urbanareas are significantly better served than ruralareas, where the bulk of the population remainsdependent on biomass energy sources, withassociatednegativeimpactsontheenvironment.

• The Nile Basin remains the only region on theAfrican continent without a functional regionalpowergrid.ThevolumesofpowertradedamongstNilecountriesareinsignificant.

• Demandforpowerintheregionishigh,risingrapidly,and will exceed supply for many years.The rise indemandisdrivenby,amongotherthings,improvingeconomic conditions and rising population in thebasin.Projectionsofpowerdemandfor2035intheNile countries indicate an increase of 300 percentandhigheroverpresentdemand.

• Very large investments in power generation andtransmission – in the range of tens of billions ofdollars – are required for a sustained period tomeettheregion’spowerdemand.

• Hydropower is the preferred energy source formostNilecountries.Totapandsustainablyexploitthe vast hydropower potential of the region,the countries need to plan and develop thewater resources cooperatively, and mainstreamenvironmental and social considerations in allaspects of power development. Balancing theinterests of competing sectors and differentcountrieswhileoptimizinghydropowerproductionwillrequirecoordinatedreservoiroperationacrossthe basin. Total power demand will eventuallyexceed hydropower potential, and alternativepowersourceswillneedtobedeveloped.

• The NBI is contributing to the transformation oftheregion’spowersectorbyprovidingaforumforjoint planning and cooperative development ofhydropower generation and transmission options,and promoting power pooling amongst theNile countries. The NBI has developed analyticaltools such as the Nile-DSS that make it possibleto quantify costs, benefits, and tradeoff in poweroptions,andallowforavoidanceofharmfulimpactstoexistingwateruses.

UrbanelectricitysupplyinnorthernEthiopia.

TYPICAL UNIT TRANSPORT COSTS For di�erent transport means as a function of distance

01,000 2,000 3,000

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long-haul container ship

187

The Role of Inland Water Transport in Support

of Further Regional Integration

Chapter 7

188 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

KEY MESSAGES• Theland-lockedeconomiesoftheupperNileregion

are hampered by expensive road transportationand logistics that have generally reduced theireconomicopportunities.

• Efforts under the African Union and regionaleconomiccommunitieshaveresultedin(especially)improvedroadinterconnectionsbetweentheNilecountries. However, the transport and trade linksbetween upstream and downstream ripariansremainweak.

• Theabsenceofareliableandcost-effectivenorth–south transportation link has constrained traderelationsbetweentheupstreamanddownstreamriparians, and represents a lost opportunity forregionalintegration.

• Economic development in the Nile countries,combined with prospective mineral resources,fossil fuels, and agricultural potential, justifyinvestmentinbulkcargotransportinfrastructure.

• SeveralreachesoftheNilecouldformelementsofacomprehensivebulkcargotransportationsystemthatcouldprovidecost-effectiveaccesstointernalandexternalmarkets.

• Developingtheinlandnavigationpotentialoftheriver Nile – in particular the‘southern reach’ fromKosti to Juba – may provide a low-cost transportrouteforbulkcargofromSouthSudanandtheNileEquatorial Lakes region to The Sudan and Egypt;it could thus encourage north–south intra-basintradeandregionalintegration.

• LakeVictoriacouldprovideacritical linkbetweentheNorthernCorridor(Kigali–Kampala–Mombasa)and the Central Corridor (Dar es Salaam–Tabora–Mwanza),andenlarge theeconomic impactzoneoftherespectivecorridors;improvedLakeVictorianavigation would also strengthen inter-regionaltransportconnectionsandeconomicintegration.

TradingvesselsettingoutfromJinja,LakeVictoria.

205

Climate Change and its Implications for the Nile Region

Chapter 8

206 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

KEY MESSAGES• There is overwhelming scientific evidence of a

warming trend in the Earth’s temperature, andconsensusaboutthemovementtowardsintensifiedextremeeventssuchasfloodsanddroughts.

• TheNileBasinishighlyvulnerabletotheimpactsofglobalwarmingowingtoamultiplicityof factors,and the basin communities have limited abilityto cope with the negative impacts of climatevariability.

• Nile flows are very sensitive to small changes inaveragebasinrainfall,buttheNileBasinconsistsofanumberofdistinctsub-basinsthateachrespondquitedifferentlytopossibleclimaticvariations.

• Although the impacts of a global warming trendare not yet clear at regional and local level, thebasin countries would do well to implement anumberof‘no-regret’orproactivemeasuresaimedatbuildingresiliencetocurrentclimatevariabilitywhile enhancing adaptive capacity for futurethreats.Asensibleapproachfornowwouldbeto

prepareformorevariableconditionsthancurrentlyrecorded.

• A prioritized ‘no-regret’ measure is to expandwater-storageinfrastructure.

• The National Adaptation Plans of Action (NAPAs)and the early warning systems being developedintheNileBasincountriesrepresentasubstantialeffortbutareinsufficienttoprepareeffectivelyforachangingclimate,giventhescaleofthethreat.

• Climate-changeadaptationmeasureswillbemosteffective when undertaken in coordination withother riparians. Examples of joint measures toenhance the collective adaptive capacity includecoordinated reservoir operation, promotingagricultural trade amongst the countriesand between the basin and other regions,interconnecting power and transport systems,developing joint mechanisms for resourcesolicitation for climate-change programmes, andconductingjointresearch.

AfarmerinKobodistrictofEthiopiasurveyshisdrought-damagedcrop.