The water infrastructure sector...

The water infrastructure sector

globally

Toronto, December, 6th – 2011

Juan Antonio Guijarro General Director of Aqualogy

Business Development AGBAR

Ciril Rozman General Director of Concessions AGBAR

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Introduction: World challenges in the water sector

1. The urgent need for investment in water infrastructure

2. Profile of the UK, European and US water infrastructure sectors

3. How water scarcity and climate change impact the business model for water utilities

4. Where the best growth potential lies

Increase in global water demand and water access

* World population prospects (urbanisation)


Water consumption has risen sharply in the past and is likely to continue increasing:• In 1950: 1,480 km3 • Current consumption:

4,500km3 (x3)• Estimated consumption in

2030: >6,500km3 (+45%)• The extra demand can be explained by persistent population growth as well as higher per capita consumption due to improved living Standards•2010: half of the developing countries’ populations lives in cities• 1.5bn more people in 2030 (+30%), 99% in urban areas • Urbanisation: in 2030, ~60% of population in urban areas (vs. 50% in 2009)

Source: United Nations - 2009

Water scarcity is a worldwide challenge, which requires technological, regulatory, financial and societal innovation

* Millennium Development Goals (MDG)

Source: United Nations. The Millennium Development Goals Report 2009

* Water scarcity

Source: FAO

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2.2 The dynamics of water use 1900 – 2025 2.2 The dynamics of water use 1900 – 2025 2.2 The dynamics of water use 1900 – 2025

Increase in the intensive agriculture

Source: International Water Management Institute (IWMI) & International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

A forward-looking agricultural sector will play a major role to address some of the biggest challenges ahead, such as global food security, biodiversity loss and the sustainable management of natural resources.

Water use

Region 1964-1966 2015

Increase (%)

World 2,358 2,940 0.25Developing countries 2,054 2,850 0.39Industrialized countries 2,947 3,440 0.17

Global and regional per capita food consumption (kcal per capita per day)

Source: WHO4


The increasing need of food supply requires a more efficient use of water in agriculture

Urbanisation

Acid rain

Pollution

Floods

Deforestation

Drought Source: OECD – World environmental outlook to 2030 (NB – pre crisis estimates )

Notes (1) Brazil, Russia, India and China (2) Developing countries

Increasing GHG emissions are accelerating Climate Change, and resulting in a raise of global temperatures

• GHG emissions increase is expected to accelerate from 2010 to 2050

• This unabated emission pathway could lead to high levels of global warming, with long-term average temperatures likely to be <4-6°C

(2)

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Global changes and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions


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The urgent need for investment in water infrastructure1

• Much of the water and wastewater infrastructure in the developed world is now over 50 years old and is in need of replacement, upgrade and repair. In particular, in-ground pipes laid down over the last century are deteriorating and in need of replacement

• This is a particular problem in Europe and the United States. Due to this lack of investment in water infrastructures, costs of maintenance and losses for unaccounted for water due to leakage of pipes areincreasing. The water infrastructure investments needs in the US for the next 20 years are estimated in more than $500 bn

• The developing countries need investments in water infrastructures to reach the Millennium Development Goals

Aging infrastructure needs to be renewed

Source: GWI - Water Technology Markets 2010 7

The world challenges of the water market require a huge effort in constructing

and delivering suitable infrastructures


Sources : 2011 Global Market Study (GWI); United Nations

Large investments in water and sanitation infrastructure are still needed, in particular in developing regions

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2001-2008

1990-2000

Investment commitments to water projects with private participation in developing

countries during the years 1990-2008 is low in comparison to other sectors

8(1) CIS: Commonwealth Independent States (former Soviet Republics)

(1)(1)

Total: $797 bn

Total: $843 bn

Source: World Bank and PPIAF, PPI Project Database (2) MDG: Millennium Development Goals

(2) (2)

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Nonetheless, in addition to the urgent need for investments in water, two main issues need

to be addressed:

• The efficiency in the management of infrastructures

In order to match offer and demand, it is first necessary to make proper use of the existing

infrastructure. As a recurrent example, it is not rare to find clean water networks with

commercial and physical leakage in excess of 30%, not to mention the loss in the irrigation

systems

• The financing of these infrastructures in order to guarantee the long-term maintenance

and replacement of the assets


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Regulation and water pricing policy should reflect scarcity (except for water

required to meet basic human needs), finance efficient utility management and

support sustainable long-term development of water resources.

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Source: Global Water Intelligence – Country Snapshot, InternalUSGS – Water Resources of the US in 2005 – 2009 edition

Profile of the UK, European and US water infrastructure sectors2US water sector

Main characteristics• Although the regulation philosophy is national, the rules and

habits differ from state to state (1 regulator by state)

• Fragmented market: there are approx. 52,000 Community Water Systems

• Small systems: approx. 83% of the systems provide water to municipalities with less than 3,000 inhabitants (9% of the population)

• Tariffs are regulated and vary a lot across the country. Tariffs steadily increase above inflation level (5-6% p.a.) but still remain low relatively to other countries. Average tariff is 2.45 $/m3 (strong variability: 1.4$/m3 in Memphis, 10.8 $/m3 in Atlanta, west coast – CA,WA,OR- has the most expensive tariffs)

• Municipalities are facing economic challenges that may not allow needed infrastructures spending (aging infrastructures)

• Per capita consumption is still high but experiment a slowly decreasing trend and varies widely by region

• A growing population and higher consumption in states where scarcity is an issue (west and south east)

• Non-regulated business mostly concerns O&M contracts for the provisions of services to water and wastewater facilities for municipalities, the US military and other costumers

Domestic per capita water consumption in 2005 by region

Connected population: Drinking water 92% and Sanitation 75%

• Strong regional discrepancies• Decreasing trend on consumption• Existence of Drivers for water

consumption reduction

Population increment between 2000 & 2030

Population: 310.5m inhabitantsGDP / capita: $47,200Next presidential elections: Nov-2012

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The US water market bears tremendous growth potential, but the timing of the market opening is still a question mark

Profile of the UK, European and US water infrastructure sectors2

• Growing investment needs due to aging infrastructure and regulation compliance

• End of water stimulus package (2009): $7bn for water & wastewater projects. The municipal water sector received this boost from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, but no funding is due to replace it

• New regulations, the role of the agency regulators is very significant (EPA is more stringent on regulations)

Private participation in the water sector• Total Water/Sewer billing market represents $ 132bn (2010), with private companies achieving 6.5% of market

share (10% in water and 1% in sewerage). Low presence of private sector in Sewer due to grant financing of WWTP in the 60s to 80s only available to public entities. Private operation market split between regulated utilities (75%) and O&M contracts (25%)

• Consolidated traditional players tend to focus on the regulated business. Private participation is low in comparison to other countries

• Municipalities face budget difficulties which could impulse a growing participation of the private sector, but anti-privatization groups have been quite successful in impeding this move so far. Politicians are reluctant to increase tariffs while the economy remains weak

• Public utilities are requesting more specialized services to improve their efficiency, their savings and their sustainability

• American Water dominates the regulated market but is restructuring. The second player is United Water (Suez Environnement subsidiary). Some players are emerging as competitors: Epcor, Equity Funds (Macquarie, JP Morgan /WAM & Carlisle Group), Engineering Firms and others

Other Highlights

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Revenues and stock evolution of main US private water utilities

Source: companies public information and GWI 2011

(*) Revenues of FY 2009

(*) Split of 2x1 shares in June 2011

(*)

2,711

825 726 628460 399

216

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

American Water Works

(AWK)

United Water Aqua America (WTR)

Veolia Water (*)

California Water (CWT)

American States Water

(AWR)

SJW Corporation

(SJW)

Main groups listed and not listedRevenues 2010 (mUSD)

Private Groups not listed

Private Groups listed

US water sector

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Estimated infrastructure investments needs for the next 20 years exceeds $500bn


Breakdown of 20-year drinking water infrastructure needs:

Nevertheless, the capex in the municipal water sector is not driven by the need but by the availability of funds. Basically, there are 4 main reasons why currently the access to finance is a challenge:

• The weakness in the municipal bond market

• The end of the stimulus package• Declining developer contributions• Reluctance to increase tariffs to

make up the shortfall

Source: Global Water Intelligence

Source: EPA


Main Characteristics

Main Challenges

• The EU established some policies which impact national water strategies, although Water Supply and Wastewater in the European Union is still under the responsibility of each member state

• The directives for water environmental and quality protection adopted by the EU institutions regard theprotection of coastal, freshwater and groundwater, and have the objective of providing protection to the aquatic environment and of ensuring high standards of public health for drinking water

• The different characteristics and regulation of the countries are also seen in the average tariffs. EU Global Average Price 2009 (1): 3.4 EUR/m3. Other countries average tariffs are (EUR/m3); Denmark: 6.4, Germany: 5.3, UK: 3.8 , France: 3.1 Spain: 2.1, Italy: 0.9 EUR/m3

• Challenges connected with today’s pressures to the system: climate change, demographic developments, urbanisation, economic progress, and social changes

• Another challenge is privatization and lobbyism in the water sector • The lack of investments in the rural and municipal water supply • Technologies are actually available but most of them are too expensive or far too time consuming to

implement simultaneously with ongoing progress and changes• Major concern: water supply limitation.• Especially the new member states located in Eastern Europe are in need of enormous investments in the WSS

sector

EU (27 countries)Population: 502m inhabitants (Jan-2011)GDP / capita: €24,400 (2010)

15(1): Nus Consulting, prices at January 1st

Profile of the UK, European and US water infrastructure sectors2European water sector

16Source: BIPE – Enviroscope 2010

Netherlands Poland Germany Spain(2) France England(3)

Public

Private & semi-public companies

Water Services(1)

Principal public companies•Brabant Water•Evides•Vitens

Private leaders•SAUR•United Utilities

Leaders•BWB•Eurowasser•Gelsenwasser•OEWA

Leaders• AGBAR• Aqualia

Leaders•Veolia Water France•Lyonnaise des Eaux•SAUR

Principal operators•Severn Trent•Thames Water•United Utilities

(1) In terms of number of people served (2) Group estimation (3) Excludes Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland

Waste Water Services(1)

Netherlands Poland Germany Spain(2) France England(3)

Principal public companies•AGV•Van Delfland•Van Rijnland

Private leaders•SAUR•United Utilities

Leaders•BWB•Eurawasser•Gelsenwasser•OEWA

Leaders•AGBAR•Aqualia

Leaders•Veolia Water France•Lyonnaise des Eaux•SAUR

Principal operators•Severn Trent•Thames Water•United Utilities

(1) In terms of number of people served (2) Group estimation (3) Excludes Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland

Public

100%88%

12%

61%

39% 50%

50% 27%

73%100%

87%

13% 4%

96% 33%

67%

44%96%

4%100%

56%

Private & semi-public companies

Public-Private Market Shares in Europe

Public- Private Market Shares in Europe


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The UK water sector includes 3 markets: England & Wales, Scotland and Northern Irelandwith different characteristics …

Source: UK Office for National StatisticsService & delivery performance 2008-09 report_England & Wales, Scotland Waterwatch, Northern Ireland Water

Water consumption by region• England & Wales: 146 l/cap/day (decreasing)• Scotland: 153 l/cap/day (increasing)• Northern Ireland: 150 l/cap/day (decreasing)

Connected population in the UK• Drinking water: 99.5%• Sanitation: 96.5%

Population: 62m inhabitantsGDP / capita: €27,280Latest legislative elections: May-10

• Each of the 3 UK water markets have organized around an economic regulator, monitoring tariffs and return of capital of water & wastewater operators, but having no power on contract services

• England & Wales are privatised markets, while Scotland and Northern Ireland are public owned (by Scottish Water and Northern Ireland Water, respectively)

• Tariffs vary a lot between and within the kingdoms. Average W&Stariff (1) in the UK in 2009: GBP 3.2/m3 (Manchester 4.2, London 2.2, Cardiff 3.6)

•Average bills in England & Wales have been increasing overall by1.8% p.a. and are expected to remain stable in the next 5 years

1) Source: GWI Tariffs Survey


Source: Ofwat

England & Wales have the Ofwat as economic regulator

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The water industry in England & Wales is divided into 10 regional Water and Sewerage Companies (“WaSCs”) and 11 WoCs (Water only Companies). The industry was privatised in 1989 and the companies are now a mix of the publicly listed and privately owned.

L= Listed companies (3): United Utilities , Severn Trent and South West Water (Pennon)

L

L

L


WaSC turnover in the regulated market vary a lot. Covering the area of London, Thames Water is the largest WaSC in the UK. Most of WaSC and WoCs are owned by private equity funds and focus on regulated services

The UK market is rather fragmented and has followed a solid performance in spite of the financial crisis

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Evolution of listed companies in the London Stock Exchange from 2004 to Nov-2011Pennon (PNN, South West Water)United Utilities (UU) Severn Trent (SVT)

L= Listed companies

L

FTSE 100

Source: Ofwat

L

L

Profile of the UK, European and US water infrastructure sectors2UK water sector

By 2010, utilities will have invested ~GBP85bn (1) to maintain and improve assets and services. Ofwat price limits allowed for GBP22bn of capex over 2010-15

• Capex have been increasing in the past (except during the 2000-05 period), while opex have been relatively stable

• Ofwat final price limits for the 2010-15 period include total capex assumptions of GBP22bn

• Including assumption of energy efficiency improvement, total opex for the 2010-15 period are assumed to reach GBP18.5bn

(1) today’s prices; Sources: GWI – Global Water Market 2011 and Final Price Determination 2010-15 20

Profile of the UK, European and US water infrastructure sectors2UK water sector

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Profile of the UK, European and US water infrastructure sectors2Economic & Political Outlook: Europe, Spain

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EUROPESovereign bond yields

Euro Crisis No growth

GDP forecast 2011: 1.4%

“ 2012: 1.0%German vision :

• Budgeting constraints vs monetary easing • Monetary tightening:

– No Eurobonds, – No CEB financing

• Greater integration / smaller club Financial Sector more stringent core capital criteria Politics:

• New technocrat governments: Greece, Italy• Merkel about to force election (2013)• Sarkozy about to force election (2012)

SPAIN

GDP per capita: 22,000 €

Unemployment rate: 21 %

Public debt: 67% of GDP

Public deficit: 9.2% of GDP

Weak growth: GDP forecast 2012: 1.0%

Sovereign debt crisis – high spreads on govnt. bonds (premium above 400 bps)

Austerity measures under pressure of financial markets

Cuts in spending public sector stalled

Banking sector reforms (Real Estate bubble)

Labour market reform

Politics: new centre-rigth wing government after nov 2011 elections.


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• Long term contracts (20-25 years) through competitive tenders

• Contract type: concession. Up front fee required

• Strong national regulation on economic balance of the contracts

• Local negotiation of rates with municipalities

• Ring fence: direct collection from rate payers (unpaid debt < 1%)

• Public deficit reduction schemes fostering further privatisation

Market context in Spain

0,0%

10,0%

20,0%

30,0%

40,0%

50,0%

60,0%Market

share

AGBAR

AQUALIA

A.VALENCIA

OTHERS

Total Market: 46.7 Mill Inhab.Private market: 25.2 Mill Inhab.

Water Market in Spain

Agbar: 13 Mill Inhab.

Profile of the UK, European and US water infrastructure sectors2Spain water sector

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Agbar: Water concessions in Spain

Key figures (2010)

Water

Municipalities: 1,018

Population served: 13,250,582

Customers : 6,310,166

Treatment Plants: 211

Treatment capacity (m³/day) 2,769,651

P&L Key figures:

Revenues: 1,390 m€

EBITDA: 250 m€

Net Profit: 100 m€

Main contracts

Santiago de Compostela

Barcelona

Alicante

Granaday áreametropolitana

CiudadReal

Valladolid

León

Pontevedra

Elche

TossaCalonge

Palamós

Olot

y área metropolitana

Pineda de MarMataróPremiá de Mar

Igualada

GranollersMollet

TerrassaSt. Cugat

RubíCastellar Vallés

VicAbrera

SitgesSt. Pere RibesCubellas

CalafellCunitSalouCambrils

Mahón

Calviá

PaternaCullera

Torrent

San Vicentedel Raspeig

Teulada-BenitatxellL’Alfàs del PíBenidormVillajoyosaMutxamel

OrihuelaCieza

Jumilla

EldaAlbacete

Huelva

CrevillenteSanta PolaSan FulgencioAlmoradiRojalesGuardamarTorrevieja

Roquetas de Mar

MurciaTorres de Cotillas

San JavierTorre Pacheco

CartagenaÁguilas

Alcantarilla

Lorca

Rincón de la VictoriaTorremolinos

MarbellaEstepona

Manilva

Cádiz

San Fernando

Lucena

Marchena

Villanueva de la Serena

Albalate

Puertollano

Don Benito

Montilla

Plasencia

Mancomunidad de Vegas Altas

ZaragozaZamora

PalenciaOurense

Avilés

San Andrés de Rabanedo

Ponferrada

Arona

San Cristóbal de la Laguna

TacoronteLa Orotava

Arucas Telde

San Bartolomé y Santa Lucíade Tirajana

Pájara

Tarragona

Spain water sector


Advanced treatment to improve water quality.

(GAC, O3, UF and RO)

Recovery of underground water polluted by volatile contamination.

(Stripping Technology)

Recovery of underground water polluted by industrial contamination.(NF, UF and RO)

Aquifer recharge.

•Underground water protection (quantity and quality).

New source introduced to guarantee de water demand.(RO Salt water (low energy consumption)

Cardedeu WTP

Besòs WTP

ITAM Llobregat

Llobregat Wells

Sant Joan Despí WTP

Estrelles WTPAbrera WTP

LLO

BREG

AT

RIVE

R

TER RIVER

Metropolitan Area

Groundwater

Water Quality Laboratory.

ISO 22000: Pioneers in applying new European legal requirements.

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Agbar covers all portfolio of advanced water technologies

Agbar: Water concessions in Spain - Barcelona

Spain water sector


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Agbar strengths and performance

• Market leader in the country. International player

• Long experience and excellent reputation

• Highly skilled company in all stages of water cycle

• Strong balance sheet

Agbar strengths

Performance Agbar Concessions – Spain

(Cumulated Annual Growth Rate)

• Revenues 3.0%

• EBITDA 8.2%

• Net Profit 5.0%

GDP Evolution - Spain

Spain water sector


Girona

96,236 Inhabs.

Manresa

76,209 Inhabs.

Reus

106,622 Inhabs.

Palma de Mallorca

404,681 Inhabs.

Zaragoza

675,121 Inhabs.

Soria

39,838 Inhabs.

Aranda de Duero

33,154 Inhabs.

Burgos

178,574 Inhabs.

Miranda de Ebro

39,038 Inhabs.

Segovia

55,748 Inhabs.

Cuenca

56,189 Inhabs.

Córdoba

328,547 Inhabs.

Cádiz

125,826 Inhabs.

Sabadell

207,338 Inhabs.

Terrassa

202,724 Inhabs.

TOTAL Inhabitants: 12,300,000 (27% of market)

Madrid 6,000,000 Inhabs

Aguas de Valencia2,100,000 Inhabs

Sevilla & Metropolitan Area

965,000 Inhabs Málaga

570,000 Inhabs.

*Agbar estimation

CITY PROJECT INHABS INVESTMENT (M€) *

MADRID Acquisition up to 49% CYII 6,000,000 350

VALENCIA Acquisition 30-60% AVSA 2,100,000 200

SEVILLA Acquisition up to 49% EMASESA 965,000 200

MALAGA Acquisition up to 49% EMASA 570,000 100

OTHERS 2,665,000 250

TOTAL 12,300,000 1,100

Profile of the UK, European and US water infrastructure sectors2Opportunities in Spain

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How water scarcity and climate change impact the business model for water utilities 3

Sustainable business model: need to grow using fewer resources

• Expectations of the water sector have changed. The main objective is not any more to provide more water to the customers but to provide it in a sustainable manner• Environmental Policies are taken into consideration

• Need to take care of natural resources • Need for efficiency in economic and environmental terms, considering climate change

impacts• Decrease energy and water consumption – Make clean energy profitable• Full cost recovery (as stated in EU Water Framework Directive) must be obtained on long

term • Defining a sustainable business model will improve the financial stability of the sector.

Other sources of financing are necessary and the risks can not be borne only by utilities. • Utilities must strictly adhere to financial sustainability and efficiency objectives

The business model for Agbar is evolving into two main lines:

Designing and adapting the organizations and business models to manage more efficiently the water services provision

Developing solutions, technologies and transferring know-how to meet to the needs and demands of the costumers

There is a need to design and adapt business models with a holistic vision of the water cycle and based in service provision, including general services for environmental preservation

Manage water infrastructures requires know-how and expertise. Therefore, it is critical to integrate the financial resources of the investors with

the management capabilities of the water sector companies.

• 100% private financing: Santiago de Chile (Aguas Andinas), Bristol Waters (UK)• Mixed capital company: Cartagena de Indias (Aguas de Cartagena, Colombia), Aquagest Andalucía

(Spain)

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Different models of alliances and contractual agreements can be implemented, taking into consideration the specific risks and conditions of each country, as well as the new environmental scenario. See below some examples of successful PPPs which include private investments:


Flexible approach to business models for water utilities

In addition, with the current difficulties in financial markets, there is a growing demand for solutions and technologies that take into consideration the environmental challenges and the restrictions of financing

Water utilities need to adapt their business model to give response to the new demands of the costumers

AQUALOGY : new brand of Agbar that encompasses tailored solutions and technologies for the costumers. Aqualogy integrates water solutions and provides added value responses to the

demands of water utilities and industries

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Flexible approach to business models for water utilities

Management efficiency: better use of technical, financial and human resources.

Efficiency in the use of water resources

Aguas de Saltillo (Mexico). Main parameters evolution during the period 2002-2010. Other examples: Oran (Algeria), delegated contract management

Artificial aquifer recharge on surface. Llobregat river. Barcelona (Spain) 33

Waste valorization

La Farfana Biogas Plant (Chile)

Energetic efficiency: wastewater treatment plants with zero energy consumption and eco-efficient designs.

STC (Agbar Group) – Heat Drying

50,0%

75,0%

100,0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Water coverage Commercial efficiency Physical efficiency

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Water coverage 96.4% 98.6% 98.7% 99.1% 99.6% 99.6% 99.7% 99.7% 99.7%Commercial efficiency 87.1% 96.1% 96.3% 96.8% 97.1% 97.4% 97.8% 97.9% 97.8%Physical efficiency 52.4% 66.1% 66.9% 71.9% 70,0% 71.6% 73.5% 72.5% 75.3%


Examples of solutions, technologies and know – how transfer

Operative innovation based on I+D and staff empowerment

R+i Alliance• Mission: Select, finance and coordinate the execution of research and innovation projects of common interest to the member companies.• Priority programs: Asset Management, Energy Efficiency, Metering, Control of Odours, Sludge Management, Stormwater Management, Water and Health, Water Demand Management and Water Resources Management.

CETaqua (Water Technology Center) is a body integrating and managing research, technological development and innovation in the field of water, mainly focused on the urban cycle, and with a national and international vocation.Founding partners: Aguas de Barcelona (Agbar), Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) and Spanish National Research Council (CSIC).

+ + =+ +

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Examples of innovation on I+D and staff empowerment

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Growing demand for private involvement and environmental solutions

The water market is driven by solid & dynamic growth drivers, which have been maintained during the crisis

• Clear incentives for water developmentRegulation supported by global environmental concern

- Shared recognition of the climate change and ecosystems preservation objectivesNeed for new water and sanitation infrastructures in developing countries and even in Europe/US

- Millennium GoalsIncreasing water (Australia, Spain, US…) and raw materials scarcity

• Growing need of greater private sector involvementCapacity to deal with complex issues and provide integrated solutionsWater management more and more technology driven (booming innovations in the CleanTech sector)Less public financing leading to more PPPs type of contract

GROWING DEMAND FOR COMPLEX ENVIRONMENTAL SOLUTIONS

Where the best growth potential lies4

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Sectors where high potential growth is expected are:

• Water and energy nexus

• Waste to energy

• Desalination market (DBO, BOT etc)

• Reuse market

• Smart solutions

Segmentation of markets according to the certainty of the legal framework:

Energy Management

• Regulated markets: US, Europe, Chile

• Other markets with less legal certainty:

• Developing Countries: BOT and projects with support of Multinational Financial Institutions

Opportunity for investors and water expert operators

Opportunity for solutions and technologies providers (Aqualogy Model)

Opportunity to analyse individually

Where the best growth potential lies4

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