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Transcript of The Vital Statistics System in China Wu Jie Department of Population and Employment National Bureau...
The Vital Statistics Systemin China
Wu Jie
Department of Population and EmploymentNational Bureau of Statistics of China
United Nations Expert Group Meeting on International Standards for Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Systems
27 – 30 June 2011 New York
Total Population of 2010 Census
National Population
Outline
1. The Vital Statistics System in China
2. 2010 Population census in China
3. Annual Population Change Sample Survey
4. Administrative records
5. Comparing and evaluating the quality of vital statistics
Administrative records
Sample survey
Census
System
1. The Vital Statistics System in China
Sequence YearPopulation
(million)
First 1953 594.53
Second 1964 694.58
Third 1982 1008.18
Fourth 1990 1133.68
Fifth 2000 1265.83
Sixth 2010 1339.72
Censuses
The 1% population sample survey, conducted
during the inter-censual years ending in 5
The annual 1‰ sample survey on population
changes
Quarterly labor force survey
The monthly labor force survey, usually running in
big cities
Sample survey
Administrative records
Supplement sources to those collected
through regular population census and
sample surveys
2010 Population Census in China
Reference time
Respondent
Process of 2010 Census
Challenges
New Characteristics
Census Items
Initial findings
2010 Population Census in China
Reference time: 1 November 2010
Respondent: de Facto living persons; household registration persons (de jure) for
outgoing migrants
Preparation (Oct.2007- Oct.2010)Field enumeration (Nov.1-10,2010)Field check (Nov.11-20,2010 ) Post enumeration survey (Dec. 2010)Advance tabulation (Dec. 2010-Apr. 2011)Data processing (Dec. 2010- Dec.2011)Data dissemination (Apr.2011 ----–2013)
and utilization
Process of 2010 Census
Challenges for Census-taking in China
Difficulty in Counting Migrant Population
Greater Residence-registration Inconsistency
Lower Cooperation from Respondents
Under-reporting of Births
Difficulty in Recruiting Enumerators
Establishing strict quality control and acceptance systems
New Characteristics for 2010 Population Census
Stronger Legal Basis
Changes in enumeration method
Collection information on international migrants
Remote sensing images in aid of census divisions and mapping
Topics covered in the Census
Wider use of administrative records
Improving data processing efficiency
Stronger Legal Basis
Regulations on Population censusspecifies objectives, principles and methods
more emphasis on rights of respondents
stronger protection of privacy
Changes in enumeration method
de Facto approach (as compared with de jure approach used in 2000 census)
information also collected at the place of household registration (de jure) for outgoing migrants
operationally easier for enumerators
more information on migration
Collection information on international migrants
cover foreigners who have resided in
China for some time
a shorter questionnaire (8 questions) was
used and in-person interview was
conducted
Remote sensing images in aid of census divisions and mapping
divide census enumeration areas nationwide: nearly 7 million areas
remote sensing images were used in preparing maps of census areas and blocks: full coverage census areas without duplication or omission.
prepare basic material for the spatial analysis of population by combining census data and spatial positions.
Topics covered in the Census
combination of long form (10%) and short form (90%)
short form: 6 household items, 12 individual items
long form: 19 household items, 28 individual items
Wider use of administrative records
resident population and migrants information from the household registration administered by the Ministry of Public Security
birth information collected by family planning departments, the health department as well as the community and village committees
Improving data processing fficiency
a decentralized strategyOCR data entry, conducted at municipal-
levela Chinese-character handwriting
recognition technology: nationality and residence address directly identified
Establishing strict quality control and acceptance systems
quality control teams at all levelsa routine check-up and a random spot
check Post enumeration survey: after field
enumeration, a total of 402 enumeration blocks were randomly selected to conduct post-enumeration survey to compare with the records of census enumeration, which resulted in a population undercount rate of 0.12 percent.
Duplicated rate & Uncoverage rate
1982 Duplicated rate 0.15‰
1990 Uncoverage rate 0.6‰
2000 Uncoverage rate 1.81%
2010 Uncoverage rate 1.2‰
Items round 2010 census
Household & Individual:
sex, age, ethnicity, education level, industry, occupation, social security, marriage and fertility, mortality, migration, housing, unemployment
Short Form: Household Items (6)
• H1: household no.
• H2: type of household (family, collective)
• H3: number of persons
• H4: births and deaths during last 12 months
• H5: floor space of housing
• H6: number of rooms
Short Form: Individual Items (12)
• R1: name• R2: relation with head of
household• R3: gender• R4: date of birth• R5: nationality (ethnic group)• R6: place of residence at
reference time• R7: place of household
registration
• R8: duration since leaving place of household registration
• R9: reason for leaving place of household registration
• R10: nature of household registration (agri. vs
non-agri)• R11: ability to read• R12: education attainment
Long Form: Household Items (17)
• H1-H4: same as in short form
• H5: nature of housing
• H6: floor space of housing
• H7: number of rooms
• H8: type of building (single or multi-floor)
• H9: construction of building
• H10: time when building was constructed
• H11: with/without access to pipe water• H12: fuel for cooking
• H13: with/without kitchen
• H14: with/without toilet
• H15: with/without hot water bathing facility
• H16: source of housing
• H17: monthly rent (in case of renting)
Long Form: Individual Items (28)
R1-R12: for all persons
• R1-R9: same as in short form
• R10: nature of residence at household registration (urban/rural)
• R11: nature of household registration (agri. vs
non-agri)
• R12: place of birth
R13: (persons aged 5 and over)
• R13: address of residence 5 years ago
R14-16: (persons aged 6 and over)
• R14: ability to read
• R15: education attainment
• R16: status of completion of education
Long Form: Individual Items (28)
R17-25: (persons aged 15 and over)
• R17: status of employment
• R18: industry
• R19: occupation
• R20: reason for not working
• R21: whether having looked for work during last 3 months
• R22: able/unable to work in 2 weeks if given a job
• R23: sources of living
• R24: marital status
• R25: date of first marriage
Long Form: Individual Items (28)
R26: (woman aged 15-64) • R26: number of births (male, female) and number
of children surviving (male, female)
R27: (woman aged 15-50) • R27: fertility status during last 12 months
(with/without births, month when giving first or second and more birth, gender of baby)
R28: (persons aged 60 and over)• R28: health condition
Initial vital statistics findings
Total Population and Annual Growth Rate from Population Censuses
Sex Composition from Population Censuses
Age Composition from Population Censuses
Age Pyramid from Population Censuses
Proportion of Population Aged 60+ and 65+ from Population Censuses
Composition of Nationalities from Population Censuses
Population with College Education Per 100,000 Persons from Population Censuses
Population Migration
Geographic Distribution of Population
39
Residents from Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Foreigners
40
Annual Population Change Sample Survey (APS)
Established officially from 1983
Conducted by NBS in China once a year
Provide reliable population data at the national and provincial level every year such as:
– annual total population
– population structural
– fertility and mortality
– …
Items on APS
Covers key items that are collected in censuses
– sex, age, ethnicity, the level of education, marital status, fertility, mortality, migration and etc.
A survey methodology book is published every year for training and supervision
Sample Survey
Multi-stage, with stratified clusters proportional to size
Taking the whole country as the population and provincial level as sub-population
The sample size is 1.2 million persons
Sampling design methodPopulation annual and labor force quarterly
survey samples are rotated by
certain proportion
the whole country as population,
provincial level as sub-population
multi-stagestratified clusters
proportional sampling
Final sample unit is enumeration area,
enumeration areas divided by 30 households
The fourth quarter labor forcesurvey samples are the
same as population survey
The sample size( 10,000 persons)
Population change
Quarterly
labor force
the whole Nation
120 60
Urban and Town
40 40
Rural 80 20
Average by province
4 2
Calculating main data from sample Survey
Estimating main data on population and sub population: Total population, CBR, CDR, …
Analyzing sampling variance
Evaluating data quality
Publications
Departments involved
The Ministry of Public Security
The Ministry of Civil Affairs
The Ministry of Health
The Ministry of Education
The Population andfamily planning committee
Administrative records
Ministries’ data dissemination
Ministry Dissemination
The Ministry of Public Security
household registration data
The Ministry of Civil Affairs
marriages and deaths
The Ministry of Health
maternal and child health
cause of death
The Ministry of Education
education statistics
5. Comparing and evaluating the quality of vital statistics
Three main resources obtaining the major population data:– survey conducted by National Statistical
Bureau– census conducted by National Statistical
Bureau – administrative records mainly refers to
household registration collected by the Ministry of Public Security
Index Census Survey Household Registration
Specifications Resident household registration
Coverage
Full 1% or 1‰Data on
registered permanent
residence above county level
usual population
Indicatorstotal population, CBR, CDR, Urban population proportion,
etc.
total populationCBR, CDR, etc.
Remarks undercount 0.12% (2010)
not getting small area
result
Uncoverage people without regi
stration
Comparing data sources
The same standard in survey and census
Three types of resident peoples from censuses and surveys with the same standard:– residing in the township, towns and street
communities with permanent household registration there
– residing in the township, towns and street communities, with permanent household registration elsewhere, away from that place for more than 6 months
– residing in the township, towns and street communities, with place of permanent household registration unsettled
The Relationship among Census, Survey and Project
The Census
The Sample Survey
Adjust the historical data
Estimation and Communiqué
The Project
the Base
Modify
The publication of the Ministry of Public Security
Publish yearbook every year
– releasing about data on the total population including provincial and small area population
– Using Permanent Household Registration statistical method which is different definitions and data collection methods from survey and census
The Difference of total population
Different resources, different total population data:
– For example in 2008, the total population is 1328.02 million people by NBS, and the household registration population is 1321.31 million people. The main reason of difference is that some people do not have household registration
Estimating and Adjusting the Survey data
According to the census and administrative records, major annual population data by nation and province are estimated from surveyAfter the National Population Census, a few years survey data before censuses will be estimated and analyzed, and decided whether data should be adjustedAdministrative records are effective complement and reference during estimating data in survey
The Application of Administrative Records
The composition of population can be checked and estimated by the education data, especially the birth dataThe data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs is the main source of annual marriages and divorcesThe data from the Ministry of Health is the main resource of cause of death
Conclusion
Population censuses and sample surveys are the main sources of the vital statistics in ChinaAdministrative records are effective complement and reference of the censuses and surveys How administrative records and sample survey can be combined to generate small area population estimates is now being investigated
Database system
National basic repository of the population information, based on data from relevant agencies such as
– Public Security, Family Planning, Human Resources and Social Security, Housing and Urban-rural, Education, Transportation, Industry and Commerce, Taxation, and financial information system resources