The ‘Visioning’The ‘Visioning’group.group.The first reflectionsThe first reflections

Huw Williams – BBCHuw Williams – BBC

and and

David Wood - EBUDavid Wood - EBU

The Visioning ProjectThe Visioning Project

• Can we identify technological trends Can we identify technological trends over the next 5,10, and 15 years?over the next 5,10, and 15 years?

• Can we identify business trends? Can we identify business trends?

• Can we identify consumer trends?Can we identify consumer trends?

• Where should public service media Where should public service media providers ‘position’ themselves?providers ‘position’ themselves?

• What should they be doing? What should they be doing?

•The future not as alien as it might seem The future not as alien as it might seem - will still be lots of - will still be lots of familiarfamiliar touch-points touch-points combined with some entirely new combined with some entirely new technologytechnology

•Narrative packages (i.e. Dramas, Narrative packages (i.e. Dramas, Documentaries etc) will still be in Documentaries etc) will still be in production the change will be in production the change will be in consumption habits and typeconsumption habits and type

The Future...The Future...

Growth of Consumer Growth of Consumer Electronics (CE)Electronics (CE)

Sales in $Billion

N.B. *Forecast **EstimateSource : Consumer Electronics Association

Future world of CEFuture world of CE

•Consumer marketplace in Consumer marketplace in constant fluxconstant flux - there - there will be a constant renewal of the ‘receiving will be a constant renewal of the ‘receiving platforms’ available to end-userplatforms’ available to end-user

•Concept of Concept of continual renewalcontinual renewal now established now established with consumers (as seen in mobile phones)with consumers (as seen in mobile phones)

•Broadcasters who fail to understand this will Broadcasters who fail to understand this will lose out or disappearlose out or disappear in the next decade in the next decade

Convergence or not ?Convergence or not ?

“ “The PC will play a key role in the home,” he says. “But we would The PC will play a key role in the home,” he says. “But we would come across as come across as arrogantarrogant if we said it was if we said it was onlyonly the PC. the PC. I wouldn’t say I wouldn’t say it’s the center of the digital homeit’s the center of the digital home, but it will play a role.”, but it will play a role.”

……Bill Leszinske, director of digital home marketing for IntelBill Leszinske, director of digital home marketing for Intel

““The The all-in-one all-in-one media entertainment console is the Holy Grail of the media entertainment console is the Holy Grail of the consumer electronics industry. Everyone from Apple, Sony, consumer electronics industry. Everyone from Apple, Sony, Microsoft and the console game companies have made forays into Microsoft and the console game companies have made forays into this area. But thus far this area. But thus far no one has developed a box with true crossover no one has developed a box with true crossover appeal.appeal.””

Milan Petrovich, academic director of The Art Institute of Las Vegas’ Milan Petrovich, academic director of The Art Institute of Las Vegas’ Game Art & DesignGame Art & Design

CocooningCocooning

• Americans’ uncertainty leads to Americans’ uncertainty leads to cocooningcocooning at home, a desire to at home, a desire to stay stay informed and connected everywhereinformed and connected everywhere and a and a focus on friends and family. focus on friends and family.

• This means This means wirelesswireless, , homehome theatertheater and and mobilemobile electronics should continue to electronics should continue to grow.grow.

• Source: Consumer Electronics AssociationSource: Consumer Electronics Association

DisintermediationDisintermediation

functionfunction - noun - noun

etymologyetymology - from the investor's bypassing of the intermediate - from the investor's bypassing of the intermediate institution: institution: the diversion of savings from accounts with low fixed interest the diversion of savings from accounts with low fixed interest rates to direct investment in high-yielding instrumentsrates to direct investment in high-yielding instruments

1. In finance, withdrawal of funds from intermediary financial 1. In finance, withdrawal of funds from intermediary financial institutions, such as banks and savings and loan associations, in institutions, such as banks and savings and loan associations, in order to invest them directly.order to invest them directly.

2. Generally, removing the middleman or intermediary.2. Generally, removing the middleman or intermediary.

Impact on BroadcastersImpact on Broadcasters

ParticipationParticipation - Citzen journalism - London Bombings and Buncefield - Citzen journalism - London Bombings and Buncefield fire -1000 images,video emails etc sent in for London Bombings -fire -1000 images,video emails etc sent in for London Bombings -6500 sent in for Buncefield fire (people queuing by satellite truck 6500 sent in for Buncefield fire (people queuing by satellite truck to file images)to file images)

Content Consumption in a myriad of formats -Content Consumption in a myriad of formats - For example - PC (iMP - For example - PC (iMP - myBBCPlayer), MP3 (Podcasting, myBBCPlayer), Mobile Devices myBBCPlayer), MP3 (Podcasting, myBBCPlayer), Mobile Devices (as in recent O2 trial where trialists watched more video at home (as in recent O2 trial where trialists watched more video at home rather than on the move)rather than on the move)

InclusivityInclusivity - Providing services to the digital vanguard and digital - Providing services to the digital vanguard and digital refuseniks at the same timerefuseniks at the same time

Accurate predictions cannot be Accurate predictions cannot be made, and different countries will made, and different countries will have different landscapeshave different landscapes

The basic trend is the multiplication The basic trend is the multiplication of means to deliver mediaof means to deliver media

New media ‘add to’ old media, but New media ‘add to’ old media, but do not ‘kill them.do not ‘kill them.

Potential dominance of North Potential dominance of North America in worldwide Internet.America in worldwide Internet.But language barriers will affect But language barriers will affect the marketthe market

The greatest trend is widespread The greatest trend is widespread use of broadband, with Open use of broadband, with Open Internet gaining compared to IPTVInternet gaining compared to IPTVBut broadband will not replace But broadband will not replace broadcasting, it will share the broadcasting, it will share the landscape with it.landscape with it.

Public service broadcasting has Public service broadcasting has the mission to be ‘universal’. the mission to be ‘universal’. This will be an important This will be an important distinguishing featuredistinguishing feature

To do: the logic of public service in To do: the logic of public service in the new media environment must be the new media environment must be explained more clearly to opinion explained more clearly to opinion formers and the public.formers and the public.

To do: technological progress should To do: technological progress should be integrated more than it is into be integrated more than it is into the strategic thinking of media the strategic thinking of media providers.providers.Policy must have a technological Policy must have a technological basebase

Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention