The Vision Thing: Some thoughts on preferred futures

Graham H May

Futures Skills

Futures Skills

What future generations need from us

Peace and securityA sustainable environmentAvoidance of catastropheGood governanceThe conservation, enlargement and dissemination of knowledgeThe well-being of children, particularly the elimination of povertyWidespread, life-long learning

Futures Skills

What future generations need from us

a pretty obvious list

a preferred present

are we there yet?

Futures Skills

Peace and security

whose peace ?historical evidence

Pax Romana, Pax Britannica, Pax Americana all based on military power George Orwell

the future Pax Chinoise or Indienne

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Avoidance of catastrophe

“A proper warning was not given. If we had given the warning and then it hadn’t happened, then it would have been the death of tourism in those areas.”

An earlier warning

Crying wolf

Which catastrophe?

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Avoidance of catastrophe

Differential impact of the tsunamiMangroves reduced the impact

Preferences for redevelopmentLocal people or tourists

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Tourism

one of the world’s largest service industries

the world’s largest employer, employing 1 in 10 workers worldwide

accounts for one third of global services exports and over 6% of all exports

a preferred future for many

but maybe not all

the importance of values

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Lisbon Strategy

“To become the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world, capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs, and greater social cohesion.” What if you are American, Asian, African, or Australian?Are the aims compatible?

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Free and fair trade

interpretation is critical evidence from the past opinions about the future WTO panel on Cross-border Gambling

“Members regulatory sovereignty is an essential pillar of the progressive liberalization of trade in services, but this sovereignty ends whenever rights of other Members under GATS are impaired.”

Antigua v. USA “ Without the enormous pressure generated by the

American financial services sector…there would have been no services agreement and therefore perhaps no Uruguay Round and no WTO.”

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Transport

a crucial service that supports our economy and our life styles

Between 2000 and 2030 passenger transport in the EU-15 will grow by 50%, and freight transport by over 80%. 75%, will be by road. Aviation will double its share of passenger movement to over 11%

OK but

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An Ideal (most desirable) scenario

Based on a shift in values towards environmental sustainability and a belief that environmental quality and economic growth are not compatible this vision of a preferred future sees a significant decrease in transport demand for both passenger and freight transport with technology substituting for mobility through e-commerce and e-work.

Foresight for Transport

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Preferred Futures

the “s” is crucial

our preferred future is not the only one

whose preferred vision dominates, what the preferred vision is, when it is envisaged it should be realised and how to bring it into effect

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Evaluating preferred futures

Whose preferred future is it? Whose interests does it promote and whose will be damaged by it? Why, by whom and how has it been prepared? What is the timescale involved? How might it be achieved? What might prevent it being achieved? Does it conflict with other preferred futures and can these conflicts be reconciled? Where might unforeseen results occur ?

Futures Skills

A paradox

“Where there is no vision the people perish” Proverbs 29:18

but

“We would often be sorry if our wishes were gratified” Aesop

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The role of the futurist

likened to that of the fool in the medieval court to ask the awkward questions

ask the awkward questions about our visions of the future Many of the apparently preferred futures of governments, businesses and others in responsible positions today suggest to me that the futurist as fool still has an important part to play