Assessing the Viability of an Outside Actor Imposing

Democratic Governmental Change within an

Established State

Marcus P. Williamson

May 2009

Section 1:

Introduction

The Democratic Peace Theory1 as presented based upon the thoughts of Emmanuel

Kant and debated throughout a Cold War that presented the struggle of Western

Enlightenment ideals against Eastern Social principles has debated the reconstructive and

rehabilitative powers of an inclusive system of government that allows for the voices of many

to be heard and governed by the people of their own choosing. These ideals have not always

played themselves out in the idealistic prose presented by optimists in academia and policy.

There are varying forms of democracy and differing levels of inclusion, the combination of

which can have differing effects in unique situations.

Instituting the supposed inherent benefits included within the Democratic Peace

Theory has driven governmental reform in the aftermath of interstate conflict throughout the

20th

Century. Before this time, after conflict agreements in the later part of the monarchial

led interstate system had fought wars throughout history, but never implemented change in

government as part of their post-war reconciliation. At most, the leading family of a state

was replaced with one more sympathetic to the victors, but it was almost unheard of until the

1 The continuing discussion behind the Democratic Peace Theory is too voluminous to cover here, but Jervis

(2002) leads us to excellent summaries of the situation as covered by Ray (1995, 1998), Russett (1993), and

Russett and Oneal (2001 Chaps. 2 and 3); for critiques see Gowa (1999) and Mares (2001, Chap. 4).

2

end of World War I that the entire system of government was changed, as was executed in the

Weimar Republic in Germany.

This idea has now continued throughout every major armed conflict between states

since that time. The ending of World War II saw the governments of Germany, Japan and

Italy replaced with a new form of government, a shift from the single party rule that had been

in place when the wars had begun. These ideals have seen themselves implemented in

modern warfare as well, as the two major conflicts instigated by the United States since 9/11

have resulted in their overthrow of governments replaced with democratic systems that are

more compatible with the victorious state. The Democratic Peace Theory ideals have gone

full circle as military engagement has begun with the intent of one state to violently

overthrow the government of another in order to prevent even the smallest possibility of

attack from that state in the future.

Such are the essential tenets of the Bush Doctrine. As outlined in the 2002 National

Security Strategy (White House 2002), the element of pre-emptive strikes with the interest of

preventing future attacks against the United States has resulted in a policy that desires to push

the elements of Western Democracies upon anyone that might pose a potential threat. Using

the Democratic Peace Theory as the cover for implementing such change in their foreign

policy, the resulting actions have engaged the United States in state building activities that

have weighed heavily against the government‟s political capital at home and abroad, as well

as presented troubling economic situations, dominating strategies, and withdrawal from other

modes of engagement that are dependent on their ability to act.

3

This essay is an investigation into the elements of enacting such a policy.

Understanding the inherent wish of state protection against future violence from certain

aggressors based on past experiences, the question arises if the resulting democratic system of

government implemented by force from an outside state will actually result in long term

security for all actors involved. The policy of this type is costly and has been popularly

argued in an analysis of cost-benefit impressions. This essay will attempt to move beyond

those issues and delve into the realm beyond that rationale, particularly when the ideological

thought has presented itself with the struggle of defining the worth of an individual life that is

saved or spend in the practice of such policy. While this point is a valid one, it cannot be

taken into consideration when dealing with this issue due to the immeasurable factors of

heightened standards of living due to increased human security, the resulting economic

cooperation between states, and other factors. Understanding this, the hypothesis of this

essay is that democracy implemented following foreign invasion and forced electoral reform

during the ensuing actions of state building will lower international conflict. This statement

does not attempt to discuss the morality of implementing such a difficult policy, nor does it

imply that the consideration of „human collateral‟ should not be factors in determining

military and foreign policy but tries to determine if such change can result in positive

situations if implemented through alternative reforms, such as soft power pressures from

foreign actors.

Understanding the international focus of this discussion away from the development

of electoral reform in previously established democratic states, questions arise in a multitude

of areas. This investigation will focus on three of these main issues:

What are the characteristics of past attempts to secure violent aggression following a

forced regime change?

4

What determines democratic success in state building practices?

What are some of the determining factors that allow some to work while others fail?

Section two will discuss what determines success in regime change. Section three will

investigate some essential factors to be assessed during the course of imposed regime change.

Section four will look at new determining aspects that need to be assessed when making the

decision to forcefully impose governmental reform. The final section will then establish a

norm for future actions, and suggestions for its usage in the modern world.

Section 2:

Determining Success in Regime Change

In determining the success of a shift to a democratic government, several variables

must be assessed in recognizing the overall change in that reformation. For the purpose of

this discussion, the level of violence in interstate situations is to be assessed. This means, the

traditional aspects that define the level of democracy, including universal suffrage, the

inclusion of opposing candidates for office, levels of free press, and others will not be

included. In their place, this investigation will look at pre-conflict levels of interaction verses

the levels that follow. This means that not only is the subject country is to be reviewed, but

also that of the nation that is imposing this change upon others.

There are several case studies that can be used in this review, but this essay will

attempt to not focus on any particular situation. The reasoning for this is that situations are

established to differing responses to force change following an armed conflict, were subject

to a massive regime change, or are still dealing with levels of state building from a foreign

power. Using different cultures to compare in this limited review does have some admitted

5

drawbacks, the most notable of which is that the modern situations of Iraq and Afghanistan

are not yet fully resolved2. Despite this, there has been enough of a democratic shift in

government to draw parallels and conclusions to determining the full effect of the conversion.

Interstate conflict is not limited to the levels of conflict incurred between the states in

question. Indeed, with the multilateral engagements of the Pacific Theatre of the Second

World War, there were numerous nations engaged military action, and many that directly

dealt with the post-conflict state building. This understood fact cannot allow us to look at

simply the engagements between two nations alone, but overall conflict levels across the

region, and actions taken through other fora in global affairs. These aspects are central to the

Democratic Peace Theory, but are separate from the inherent policy implemented through the

Bush Doctrine in the early 2000‟s. The allowance for conflict to continue after the initial

form of central government is not one that has the ability to continue into the future, but

stands directly in the face of this paper‟s central theme. If the shift towards democratic

systems of government leads to peace not only between two nations, but among all

relationships between a nation and other democratic states there must be some overall trend

that coincides with this point of transition and future engagements.

As such, we can infer that due to the nature of transitional phases those levels of

uncertainty arise. With the vacuum that develops in the new arena of government there are

challenges to authority, the difficulty of a constituency that is not accustomed to the ability of

a participatory democracy, and the level of control that the people of that new democracy

have in regulating the military of their state. Through this time associated with Power

Transition Theory related to violent outbreak, there can be an assumed period of heightened

2 Other considerations include the nature of the conflict in its inception (reactionary v. pre-emptive military

action); multi-lateral v. uni-lateral development, and the style of government in place before regime change.

These issues are discussed further in section five.

6

violence, both internally and externally, that a newly transitional nation encounters. This

may seem as if they stand in direct contrast with the ideas of the Democratic Peace Theory,

but these differing ideas complement each other in the realm of short term expectations and

long term gains. With these considerations in mind, there must be observable trends that are

developed and present an overall outlook that can be applied to situations that will predict the

level of future violence that a state will meet in the future following that transition.

Graphing these levels of violence will help in developing the idea of a potential theory

regarding understanding the cost benefit analysis of state forced democratic regime change in

order to institute long term peace potential. While they are not the only consideration to be

taken into account, the limited parameters of this essay allow for only an initial review of the

situations, discussion of potential causes, and assessment of potential investigations for future

review.

Section 3:

Discussing Essential Transitional Factors

Looking at the levels of violence in a transition can be ascertained in a multitude of

ways: number of conflicts engaged in, types of conflict, money and resources spent on

military expenditures, loss of life, and others. To determine the overall effect that externally

imposed democratic regime change can have upon an international system, the breakdown of

individual aspects is too limited an option to pursue in order to visualize trends. This section

will look at three of those factors: levels of direct military engagement between specific

nations, levels of military engagement between specific nations and others, and levels of

overall conflict within the nation itself. It is the hope that by looking at these three factors,

7

general trends will display themselves and present a better understanding for the exact factors

that solicit necessary elements to promoting successful forced regime change with the goal of

long term peace.

Levels of Direct Military Engagement between Specific Nations

Assuming that two nations have a history of conflict between each other, it is the

desire of one to enforce a method of governmental reform that will include future policies

that will agree with the primary nation in order to progressively enforce lowered levels of

conflict between the two in the future. By looking at the level of pre and post change

conflict, it can be ascertained if an imposed regime change is in fact beneficial to supporting

those claims. Understanding that regime change applies not only to military levels, but also

economic exchange, regional support from common allies, and other factors it is not assumed

that this is the „golden ticket‟ that promotes peaceful interchange between nations. However,

these signals do initially promote these actions and can be the tipping point for future

interactions on all levels as discussed in section four.

The initial response between nations themselves is the direct result of an absolute

surrender in military conflict. These preconditions to the end of hostilities have been an

element of post-conflict situations for generations. However, it is the element of situational

response to post-nation building and governmental reform that leads to the long term benefits

of actions. While many wars are begun under the auspices of retaliatory attack, the need to

prevent such an occurrence from happening again is the parlance of having such a need to

enact these state building situations to happen. The ability to protect a state from future

attack is the long term goal of any military engagement.

8

Gauging the long term effects of these changes are relatively simple to assess.

Looking at the levels of pre and post conflict engagements through operations other than

violent conflict, i.e.: economic exchange, peaceful interactions, negotiations in multilateral

affairs, ect., will show increased levels of positive interaction. It remains to be ascertained,

and is a usual level of academic debate, wither the new reforms and interactions benefit the

imposing nation, the imposed, or both. However, it must be understood that regardless of the

terms of these agreements, that lower levels of human suffering and increased rights and

security are to the benefit of all. The methods used, if an extreme liberal style of democracy

or a modified version to fit local needs, must be interpreted as a positive step in the

establishment of global security through regime change.

Levels of Military Engagement between Nations and Others

To understand if the institution of democracy, regardless of the style, is a potential

method for lowering the overall likelihood of conflict begun by a nation, the levels of actual

conflict by both those engaged in the state building activities and the state that is being

reformed must be assessed. To ensure the lowering of conflict between states, the

participation of both parties involved must show some level of decline not only with each

other, but will all rivals around the globe. If the democratic peace theory is to be regarded as

a law, then the level of conflict must be lessened not only between the warring nations but

also with their hard policy interactions with allies and rivals alike outside of the realm of

those who imposed the governmental reform.

9

The ability for this to be instituted is a relatively difficult thing to measure, and even

more difficult to analyze. The ability of a new government is limited, and typically

vulnerable to outside attack. The standard topic of limiting these abilities is that of the state-

building nation has typically left groups of military „peacekeepers‟ or enforcers to maintain

the transition to the new form of government. With this outside state actively involved in the

nation of focus requires a new perspective on interactions with the newly established

government. A military attack on such a state with outside actors (who presumably have

enough military strength to force the change in the first place) will demand a unique

perspective by outside forces.

Once the military forces presented by outside state powers have primarily left the

newly built state is the tipping point in determining the potential for future military

engagements by the new democratically elected government. With the correct situations in

place, it is easily possible that democracies will engage in ancient feuds with rivals to impose

the newly learned abilities taught to them by the departing nation and its military. The level

of continued governance under a free and fair democratic situation is another factor that may

play out in potential military attacks in the future. The continuation of such a policy has the

potential to slip into an autocracy at some point once a dominant political party has been

established and forced out opposition parties once in power. This recession into a democracy

in name only as it is ruled by an elite class forces another consideration in the ability of

forced democracy by an outside force to be effective in establishing a peaceful nation.

Levels of Domestic Conflict within the Nations Involved

10

The most telling indicator of a successful forced regime change in the aftermath of

conflict may be the level of inclusion by differing groups within the affected nation itself.

Assuming that the nation changed has persons of opposing viewpoints in any number of

issues demands the ability for each of those positions to feel a sense of inclusion in the

process of the new government. While the nature of internal government is subject to the

style of democracy to be implemented based on the personality of the society involved within

the state itself, it is a vital position that must be one that does not develop a failed state

situation (discussed in section four). The power of individual groups to assume power

through force is a major consideration in modern conflict studies and has the potential for

problems to develop across a wide range of exchange in the future.

Establishing the appropriate style of democracy in a new state government is a task

that has been reviewed before with the notion of conflict between groups in established

democracies, but the intention of preventative conflict resolution through electoral reform to

sway the potential of violence in the future is a notion that must be considered when

establishing a form of government in a new situation. The potential for review has been

covered by a variety of authors3, but should be thought about in new conflict situations.

Section four begins the review of that new style of conflict that is emerging within modern

warfare. Known as „Fourth Generation Warfare‟, the potential for sub and trans-national

actors to influence military engagement is on the rise, and must be a consideration when

reviewing democratic reform in post-conflict situations.

3 A review of this literature has been provided to the class in the module outline, particularly the ideas of power

sharing and electoral design as a method of conflict resolution. With the premise of this paper centered on

interstate conflict, the ability of establishing conflict prevention is an entirely different approach. As such,

understanding the potential for conflict is a method that requires the essential understanding of the sociological

needs of a particular situation and implementation of democratic possibilities within that new governmental

structure.

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Section 4:

Understanding the „Tipping Point‟ in Modern Regime Transition

Beyond the traditional aspects of regime building in the aftermath of conflict is the

new situation that is developing in the art of warfare itself. The aspect of human security

policy may be one of the most obvious sectors of public policy that displays this new reform

from the center of Realistic tendencies. With historical military might coming from

predominately state actors, the current policy of political science with regard to armed

conflict derives itself from late renaissance period literature as defined by the likes of

Richelieu and Machiavelli. With the definition of the state as the primary actor controlling

the populations of their states through a combination of hard and soft power in the time of

predominately monarchical and feudal systems, the development of democratic states and

enlightened ideas have shifted the power from the governing elite, to the manipulation of that

elite itself by smaller groups within populations.

Understanding the direct strength that a central government has over many aspects of

their constituencies lives, the ability to enact sweeping policies that affect both domestic and

foreign affairs is one that on first glance lies with the ability of this situation4. It is the

situation that develops through democracies that position people in places of power with the

ability to manipulate agendas through these representatives of the state that have seen the

shift in central tenants of Realism to the Post-international age. The abilities of manipulation

that happen within the government itself makes for a new situation that plays directly into the

ideas established previously, but outside of the hierarchical systems that dominate the scene.

4 This omits the major situation created by „failed states‟, or those without a strong central government to

enforce security. These „failed states‟ are reviewed and published annually by Foreign Policy Magazine. These

numbers are also evaulated by The Fund for Peace, and have been written about extensively by Chomsky

(2006), Ghani and Lockhart (2008), and Hoffman (2006).

12

Beyond this idea, it is the ability of individual non-state actors to influence policy and

events themselves in human security. The development of armed violent conflict since the

end of the bilateral Cold War scenario has involved the SFAs to a higher level due to the

lessening interest and abilities of major state powers around the world. With the end of the

proxy war influence, individual groups have resorted to violence to establish their claims on

various issues using a variety of techniques in order to do so. This implementation has not

brought about affects on the groups who are resorting to these methods to institute change,

but international groups and organizations have worked with the states directly in order to

resolve these problems. Ignoring the direct causation of the conflict by instituting

consequences at the state level and not local level has little effect is dissuading the aggression

displayed by these SFAs, and will continue to do so as long as this method of policy

implementation is used.

The shift in public policy establishment away from the state to other groups has

forced the essential conception of engagement of human security away from the traditional

definitions of warfare into a new direction. Established as Fourth Generation Warfare5, the

needs of the state and individuals living within their boundaries are under pressure from a

new type of security. The theory of Fourth Generation Warfare has been identified by Lind

et Al. (1989) and Benbow (2008). The main points of this growing identification of warfare

are the essential shifting from the strengths of state led militaries to developing a form of

conflict that strikes at many different levels of the establishment. Hammes (1994) outlines

the tactical traits to 4GW. He notes that 4GW tends to:

5 The first three generations of warfare have been identified by Lind et al. (Ibid) as: 1st Generation: tactics of

line and column; which developed in the age of the smoothbore musket. 2nd Generation: tactics of linear fire

and movement, with reliance on indirect fire. 3rd Generation: tactics of infiltration to bypass and collapse the

enemy's combat forces rather than seeking to close with and destroy them; and defense in depth.

13

Be complex and long term;

Include elements of terrorism;

Be fought across the spectrum of political, social, economic, and military

networks, particularly on that of an enemy‟s culture resulting in sophisticated

psychological warfare;

Be fought in a complex arena of low-intensity conflict involving actors from all

networks;

Involve a mix of national, international, transnational, and sub-national

actors;

Situated with a non-national or transnational base, i.e.: highly decentralized;

Be fought worldwide through these networks.

With a general inability to effectively fight a war on the levels of major state powers,

deflecting the focus of conflict to violent military engagement to factors more favorable to

smaller actors. The development of this type of engagement will prolong the planned effects

of engagement made by the major state and result in a lower estimation of a cost to benefit

ratio. Making the traditional battlefield irrelevant shifts these SFAs into a stronger position,

more likely to achieve their goals.

With this, groups such as the United States (US) military have made adaptations to

this evolving type of warfare. Artelli and Deckro (2008) have made notice of the change in

the US Doctrine for Joint Operations to re-align the timing of certain phases of the „Military

Operations Other Than War‟ (MOOTW), including the essential development of defining war

itself into a broader perspective that includes aspects previously described as „situations short

of war that require US military forces‟. Barno (2006) realizes the challenges to future

14

military engagements, noting the idea of a „long war‟ that will challenge the willingness of

democratic actors to engage in conflict over a period of many years. This perception has

been the defining component of United States foreign policy in recent years, moving in a new

direction from state on state conflict, and is expected to continue well into the 21st Century.

The aspects that this development brings about to the act of state building in

international affairs that was not directly applicable in previous state building situations.

Understanding that the element of governmental reform does not directly influence the

change of a society at all levels brings about the discussion of reconciliation that has been the

focus of intra-state governmental reform, developing new and different techniques of

democratic capacity to enable the situation that allows for long term peace developments not

only within a state, but with others around the globe. These elements are for further

discussion in other analysis, but have the potential to undermine the act of externally forced

change in peace dealings between nations despite the successful implementation of a general

democratic reform.

Section 5:

Conclusion

The struggle to establish the viability of the Democratic Peace Theory as a method of

preventative measures by a state to impose upon another sovereign territory has displayed

some success over the past century. With the development of modern military tactics and the

ability of sovereignty free actors to display ability for violence outside the realm of

governmental reform does pose new problems to that situation. It is in the understanding that

these groups play in modern human security concerns that make up the focus for democratic

reform in the aftermath of conflict for the future. Without them, the potential for violent

15

conflict to emerge from the attempts of peace through force will only enable for new groups

to emerge and create new violence both within and outside of the reformed state.

The resolution of a new style of government in order to maintain the peace between

sovereign nations is directly related to the inclusion of these SFAs within the fora of high

politics debate. That is, despite the relatively outlying policy issues that these groups may

present their ability to participate and work within a fully functional democracy is the only

ability that one may have in establishing a regional and global peace. The need for this relies

on the understanding that a state imposing governmental reform upon an established state

must face the very real possibility that the democratic state established will not be one that

will work towards mutually beneficial agreements between those two nations in the future.

The ability to allow for a nation to decide its own fate is difficult to allow, particularly given

the amount of investment needed in order to effectively put that change into place. The

possibility of using such a cost without any potential benefit results in a shifting of the desire

to implement a change through such methods and could result in a lowering of this tactic in

the future.

If the potential to use this method in the future persists, one element that will lower

the cost in a state-building operation is that of a multi-lateral approach. By spreading the cost

of the implementation across many states will lead to a number of positive effects including

new associations with states that may not have had much contact in the past, the openness to

new ideas to be implemented within the new democratic state, and heightened economic

exchange across a variety of markets. The ability for a nation to engage in state-building

unilaterally is possible at this moment in history, but is not economically feasible.

16

The ability for a nation to defend itself against attack is an essential right that has been

established in many different documents of international law, but the reaction to those

engagements has led to a system of complex ideas that have been implemented in order to try

and prevent those engagements from happening in the future will leave many without the

necessary capital around the world to implement peaceful negotiations in other arenas in the

future. If the ability of a nation to try and impose forced democratic regime change in a state

is to continue to be in vogue with the foreign policy of major states, a new approach must be

installed to ensure that successful nations are build, and not a complex system of failed states

that will result in a backlash of problems that all peoples of the world will be relegated to deal

with in the future.

17

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