The value of water to the U.S. Army · PDF fileWater Scarcity. Fishery Depletion. Fishery...

The value of water to the U.S. Army

What is the energy-water nexus?

Marc KodackOffice of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for

Energy and SecurityAugust 17, 2017

Tampa Convention Center • Tampa, Florida

Properly valuing water

Potential Crises to 2030

2

ArcticTerritorial Disputes

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

North Korea -South Korea

Crisis

South China Sea Tensions

SE AsiaTensions

Russia-Georgia Tensions

Yemen Instability

Armenia-Azerbaijan

Crisis

SyriaCivil War

Terrorist Challenges

Terrorist Challenge

Somalia Conflict

Sudan Conflict

Terrorist Challenge

Sub-Saharan AfricaWidespread Potential Humanitarian Crises,

Governance Crises

Piracy

TCOs Destabilizing Governance

Libya Internal Tensions

Egypt Internal Tensions

Cuba -Instability

Haiti Crisis

PakistanInternal Tensions

Columbia Insurgency

VenezuelaInstability

Central AsiaInterstate

Friction

Peru Insurgency

Terrorist Challenge

BalkansInstability

AfghanistanContinuing Insurgency

Terrorist Challenge

Israeli-Palestinian

Tensions

Peacekeeping India/Pakistan

IranRegional

Antagonisms

North KoreaRegime Collapse

China-Taiwan Crisis

Range of Threat Actors

Near-Peer StateRegional StateFailing StateTransnational GroupInsurgent/Guerrilla/MilitiaProxiesTerroristsCriminal Groups

Future Operating Environment Will be Complex and Change is Likely to Accelerate

TCO Violence

Cyber Attack on Critical U.S.

InfrastructureTerrorist WMD

Attack

Colors Indicate Regional Groupings with Shared Factors

Global ConditionsProliferation of Arms, WMDUneven Economic Recovery

Humanitarian/Natural Disaster, Demographics, Technology, Resource

Scarcity, Energy, Environment

EU Integration

Frictions

Motivations• Wealth• Resources• Political authority• Influence• Sovereignty• Identity• Legitimacy

Desertification

Desertification

Desertification

Desertification

Large Majority of Crises Stem from Weak Governance

Relationship to U.S. & Allies’ Vital National Interests May Not Be Apparent

Deforestation

Deforestation

Deforestation

Deforestation

Water Scarcity

Water Scarcity

Water Scarcity

Fishery Depletion

Fishery Depletion

Fishery Depletion

Sea Level Rise

Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise

Sea Level Rise

Sea Level Rise

Sea Level Rise

Sea Level Rise

Sea Level Rise

Environmental changes will drive weak governance, which will drive crisis

Energy Exchange: Connect • Collaborate • Conserve

Environmental Complexities

3

• Environmental services‒ Depleting natural capital – Self sustaining ecosystems‒ CO2 Cycle: 280 to 391.52 PPM today

450 PPM = “climate change irreversibility”

• Land‒ Desertification (≈ 40 million hectares/yr lose part/all of their productivity)‒ Deforestation (5.2 million hectares/yr, the size of Costa Rica)

• Water supply‒ Demand expected to be 40% greater than supply in 2030

• Food production‒ Soil erosion & loss of productivity (est. ≈20 million tons/yr of grain)‒ Global food prices could rise 70-90% by 2030

• Oceans‒ Sea level rise will displace hundreds of millions of people‒ Overfishing: >75% of the world’s fish stocks fully or over exploited‒ Acidification: ocean chemical changes as a result of CO2 emissions

Inte

rrel

ated

: Will

Driv

e Br

eakd

own

of G

over

nanc

e

• Resource scarcity / supply chain ‒ Energy supply/distribution‒ Water and energy use in supply chain: 1,800 gallons for 1 lb of beef, 30 gallons for 1 lb of steel


• Changes in storm frequency, duration, and intensity• Water rights• Drought• Sea level rise affecting aquifers

4

Water Risks


Recent• Drought can result in water restrictions

that include Army installations• Training restrictions – wildfire risk• Community relations

Future• Water increasingly scarce• Increased conflict between

installations and local communities for water rights

• More frequent training restrictions due to limited water supply

• Supply chain disruptions• Heat index

Water Availability

5


Hot and dry climate Increased wildfire risk

Installation vulnerabilities

Human safety Air and land access

restrictions Loss of sensitive

habitats

Flooding of critical facilities

0

90

180

270

360

1954-2012 2030 (+1.8F)

2050 (+3.6F)

2090 (+5.4F)

Cum

ulat

ive

Day

s / Y

ear

Changes in precipitation Increased extreme weather events

Climate Change Risk

6

http://www.nationalguard.mil/news/archives/2008/08/images/082208-TS_Fay-full.jpg

http://www.nationalguard.mil/news/archives/2008/08/images/082208-TS_Fay-full.jpg


NOAA maps: high tide with sea level rise – 0 ft

(without storm surge)

Sea Level Rise

NOAA maps: high tide with sea level rise – 4 ft(without storm surge)

Hunter AAF

7


Energy Security and Sustainability

Strategy

Army-wide applicability

Shared Goals1. Inform Decisions2. Optimize Use3. Assure Access4. Build Resilience5. Drive Innovation

Installation-wide applicability of Key Business Driver #2, Energy and Sustainability

ASA(IE&E) Strategy 2025

Energy Security and Sustainability Strategy

8


Secure and reliable access to energy and water resources when, where, and in the quantities needed is essential to Army operational and installation missions.

Army Installation Energy and Water Security Policy

• Secure critical missions

• Assured access to resource supply

• Reliable infrastructure condition

• Effective system operations

9

Energy and Water Security

Energy Exchange: Connect • Collaborate • Conserve10


cost

price

value

11


water utility cost

end user price

12


reputation

brands

intangible assets

13


non-market valuation tools

14

The value of water to the U.S. Army

What is the energy-water nexus?

Marc KodackOffice of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for

Energy and SecurityAugust 17, 2017

Tampa Convention Center • Tampa, Florida

Properly valuing water

The value of water to the U.S. Army · PDF fileWater Scarcity. Fishery Depletion. Fishery...

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