The U.S.R&D Satellite Account: Measurement Issues and R&D Satellite Account Methodology
-
Upload
salvador-stanton -
Category
Documents
-
view
22 -
download
3
description
Transcript of The U.S.R&D Satellite Account: Measurement Issues and R&D Satellite Account Methodology
The U.S.R&D Satellite Account:Measurement Issues and R&D Satellite Account Methodology
Sumiye Okubo R&D Conference
December 13, 2006
www.bea.gov 2
Goals of Conference
Solicit advice on conceptual framework and estimation methods To extend 2006 R&D satellite account
methodology to improve 2007 estimates To improve framework and data sources
in order to incorporate R&D into the national accounts over the next five years
Several thorny issues
www.bea.gov 3
Purpose of R&D Satellite Account
Treat R&D as investment R&D creates a future stream of benefits Appropriable R&D has the qualities of
an economic asset
Part of BEA program to improve measures of intangibles in national accounts
www.bea.gov 4
Changes in National Accounts
Capitalizing R&D expands scope and rearranges the accounts: R&D expenditures funded by business
reclassified from intermediate inputs to business investment, and business income rises
R&D expenditures funded by Nonprofits and Government transferred from consumption to investment
Services of nonprofit and government R&D capital increase
www.bea.gov 5
Overview of Estimation Method for R&D Stocks
Sum input costs Include a charge for depreciation
of fixed assets Assign investment to owning
sector using funder information Deflate nominal investment Create capital stocks with
perpetual inventory method
www.bea.gov 6
Impact on Investment and Saving
Capitalizing R&D raised Current dollar gross private domestic
investment by 11 percent in 2002 Adjusted national savings rate 2
percentage points, from 14 percent to 16 percent in 2002
www.bea.gov 7
Impact on Growth
Capitalizing R&D increases current GDP by 2 ½ percent and real GDP growth by a tenth of a percentage point
R&D investment accounts for 4½ percent of real GDP growth between 1959-2002
R&D investment accounted for 6½ percent of real GDP growth between 1995-2002
www.bea.gov 8
Impact on Profits/Gross Operating Surplus
Treating R&D as investment rather than intermediate inputs Increases investment and GDP Raises Gross Operating Surplus and
GDI Increases the share of gross operating
surplus to GDI 2 percentage points from 36 percent to 38 percent.
www.bea.gov 9
Impact on Government and Non-Profits
NIPAs include only CFC for capital investment of government and nonprofits
The 2006 R&D Satellite Account adds a net return to government and nonprofits
www.bea.gov 10
Schedule
Feasibility Study of Industry R&D Satellite Account, Spring 2007
Revised R&D Satellite Account, September 2007
Between 2007-2012, new source data and extensions to other account areas
BEA plans to incorporate R&D into the I-O accounts in 2012 and the NIPAs in 2013
www.bea.gov 11
Issues to be addressed
Measuring R&D Measuring R&D investment returns Measuring R&D capital services
and the production account
www.bea.gov 12
Measuring R&D
Valuation in current and real dollars Cost approach Comparable market value approach Income or present discounted value
approach Market valuation and spillovers
www.bea.gov 13
Measuring R&D Investment Returns
Rate of return across asset types Rate of return to government and
nonprofit R&D Depreciation
www.bea.gov 14
Measuring R&D Capital Servicesand the Production Account
Net rates of return Earnings of R&D assets versus other
assets Ex ante versus ex post approach
Asset boundaries and double counting Scope of R&D
Ownership Assignment of ownership to funders
rather than performers